Convective And Orographically-induced Precipitation Study Research Articles

An Observational and Modeling Study of the Processes Leading to Deep, Moist Convection in Complex Terrain

Abstract A case study of orographic convection initiation (CI) that occurred along the eastern slopes of the Vosges Mountains in France on 6 August 2007 during the Convective and Orographically-Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) is presented. Global positioning system (GPS) receivers and two Doppler on Wheels (DOW) mobile radars sampled the preconvective and storm environments and were respectively used to retrieve three-dimensional tomographic water vapor and wind fields. These retrieved data were supplemented with temperature, moisture, and winds from radiosondes from a site in the eastern Rhine Valley. High-resolution numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were used to further investigate the physical processes leading to convective precipitation. This unique, time-varying combination of derived water vapor and winds from observations illustrated an increase in low-level moisture and convergence between upslope easterlies and downslope westerlies along the eastern slope of the Vosges Mountains. Uplift associated with these shallow, colliding boundary layer flows eventually led to the initiation of moist convection. WRF reproduced many features of the observed complicated flow, such as cyclonic (anticyclonic) flow around the southern (northern) end of the Vosges Mountains and the east-side convergent flow below the ridgeline. The WRF simulations also illustrated spatial and temporal variability in buoyancy and the removal of the lids prior to convective development. The timing and location of CI from the WRF simulations was surprisingly close to that observed.

Early-Morning Flow Transition in a Valley in Low-Mountain Terrain Under Clear-Sky Conditions

We investigate the evolution of the early-morning boundary layer in a low-mountain valley in south-western Germany during COPS (convective and orographically induced precipitation study) in summer 2007. The term low-mountain refers to a mountainous region with a relief of gentle slopes and with an absolute altitude that remains under a specified height (usually 1,500 m a.s.l.). A subset of 23 fair weather days from the campaign was selected to study the transition of the boundary-layer flow in the early morning. The typical valley atmosphere in the morning hours was characterized by a stable temperature stratification and a pronounced valley wind system. During the reversal period—called the low wind period—of the valley wind system (duration of 1–2 h), the horizontal flow was very weak and the conditions for free convection were fulfilled close to the ground. Ground-based sodar observations of the vertical wind show enhanced values of upward motion, and the corresponding statistical properties differ from those observed under windless convective conditions over flat terrain. Large-eddy simulations of the boundary-layer transition in the valley were conducted, and statistical properties of the simulated flow agree with the observed quantities. Spatially coherent turbulence structures are present in the temporal as well as in the ensemble mean analysis. Thus, the complex orography induces coherent convective structures at predictable, specific locations during the early-morning low wind situations. These coherent updrafts, found in both the sodar observations and the simulation, lead to a flux counter to the gradient of the stably stratified valley atmosphere and reach up to the heights of the surrounding ridges. Furthermore, the energy balance in the surface layer during the low wind periods is closed. However, it becomes unclosed after the onset of the valley wind. The partition into the sensible and the latent heat fluxes indicates that missing flux components of sensible heat are the main reason for the unclosed energy balance in the considered situations. This result supports previously published investigations on the energy balance closure.

Characterization of the planetary boundary layer height and structure by Raman lidar: comparison of different approaches

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) includes the portion of the atmosphere which is directly influenced by the presence of the earth's surface. Aerosol particles trapped within the PBL can be used as tracers to study the boundary-layer vertical structure and time variability. As a result of this, elastic backscatter signals collected by lidar systems can be used to determine the height and the internal structure of the PBL. The present analysis considers three different methods to estimate the PBL height. The first method is based on the determination of the first-order derivative of the logarithm of the range-corrected elastic lidar signals. Estimates of the PBL height for specific case studies obtained through this approach are compared with simultaneous estimates from the potential temperature profiles measured by radiosondes launched simultaneously to lidar operation. Additional estimates of the boundary layer height are based on the determination of the first-order derivative of the range-corrected rotational Raman lidar signals. This latter approach results to be successfully applicable also in the afternoon–evening decaying phase of the PBL, when the effectiveness of the approach based on the elastic lidar signals may be compromised or altered by the presence of the residual layer. Results from these different approaches are compared and discussed in the paper, with a specific focus on selected case studies collected by the University of Basilicata Raman lidar system BASIL during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS).

Small scale topography influence on the formation of three convective systems observed during COPS over the Vosges Mountains

Numerical modelling of the airflow and precipitating convective systems are performed to better understand the role of topography for the triggering of convection over a moderate mountain region during the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS) campaign. A non-hydrostatic cloud scale model with two nested domains is used which permits to zoom from the mesoscale environment of southwestern Germany/eastern France, into the Vosges Mountains and finally into the small-terrain of the field experiment, increasing the grid resolution to well represent the orography of the region. Using radar observations, a classification of the location of the convection initiation was established during the COPS project, which considers that the convective systems form either on the mountain ridges or on the lee side of the massif. The three simulated cases of this study, corresponding to either position of convection initiation, compare well with available observations of local thermo-dynamical conditions, high resolution X-band radar reflectivity, Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis (VERA) of the surface horizontal wind and water vapour retrieval through GPS integrated water vapour 3D tomography. It was found that the convection generation is largely influenced by the Vosges topography. Even for a quite similar synoptic horizontal wind field, the relief acts differently for the studied cases. However, the convective systems are not formed solely by the mountains, but require inputs of moisture, proper stability, and some supportive mesoscale environment. Therefore, their representation in the model requires also a detailed knowledge of the local atmospheric conditions.

Precipitation on the lee side of the Vosges Mountains: Multi-instrumental study of one case from the COPS campaign

In this article, we focus on one case study from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS), which took place in north-eastern France and south-western Germany during the summer of 2007, in a low mountain area. We investigate lee side precipitation due to shallow and deep convection during one Intensive Observation Period (IOP) of COPS which have been well documented by all the instruments. For that aim, we use a set of observations from radars, radiosoundings, satellite, and a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, as well as meteorological analyses and dedicated model simulation results. The combination of these measurements with GPS tomography results suggests the role of low level water vapour accumulation and convergence as a precursor to the convective initiation. The origin of this moistening and wind convergence seems to be linked to a slight change in the wind direction in the north-west part of the COPS domain. Using a high resolution X band radar, we also describe how small scale orography affects the precipitation locations, and we show the role of hills near the mouths of the valleys in convective enhancement. This observation is confirmed by model simulation showing that convection is no longer enhanced when the hills are suppressed. The further intensification of one convective cell over the Rhine Valley, which is climatologically frequent, is also discussed.

Vertical velocity observed by Doppler lidar during cops - A case study with a convective rain event

Convective and Orographically-Induced Precipitation Study (COPS), conducted in the Black Forest region in Southern Germany and Eastern France during the summer of 2007. From the 13 June to the 16 August 2007, the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Facility for Ground-based Atmospheric Measurement (FGAM) 1.5 lm scanning Doppler lidar was deployed at Super Site R, Achern, in the Rhine Valley, in order to contribute to the extensive COPS observation campaign. The FGAM Doppler lidar system provides measurements of radial wind and aerosol backscatter in the layer 100–1500 m. Profiles of horizontal wind velocity are presented, these being derived from performing azimuth scans. Profiles of vertical velocity, its variance and skewness derived from the vertical scans are also presented and discussed in the paper. Knowledge of vertical velocity skewness is important for the understanding of the structure and origin of turbulent convection in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The skewness of vertical velocity can provide a measure of the asymmetry in the distribution of vertical velocity perturbations within the ABL and can be estimated using the Doppler lidar. In addition, we investigate the behaviour of the boundary layer using data from the FGAM Doppler lidar and Automatic Weather Station (AWS), the University of Basilicata Raman lidar (BASIL) and the DLR’s Poldirad C-band radar. A case study event on the 6 th August 2007 is selected and investigations of possible causes of layers with positive and negative skewness are presented, along with comparisons with output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to assess the accuracy of the model output, including location and timing of rainfall onset.

Comparison of IASI water vapour products over complex terrain with COPS campaign data

In this work, we compare IASI-retrieved vertical water vapour profiles and related precipitable water over a complex region, namely the Rhine Valley area, during the pre-operational period of IASI exploitation (June?August 2007). Both IASI water vapour mixing ratio profiles and integrated water vapour content are retrieved from L1C radiances spectra using two techniques and compared with water vapour related observations acquired during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) field campaign that took place in this area at that time (i.e. lidars, radiosoundings and a global positioning system - GPS - station network). This work addresses the issue of IASI vertical spatial resolution and its capability to detect two-layer water vapour structures such as those observed in a mountainous area and which play an important role in convective initiation or inhibition. We found that this capability mostly relies on the type of a-priori background vector (climatology or space-time colocated ECMWF analysis), which is used within the retrieval scheme. Systematic comparison of water vapour products derived from 71 IASI spectra confirms that IASI can retrieve water vapour amounts in 2 km width layers, in the lower troposphere, with an accuracy of approximately 10%.

The Regional Atmospheric Water Budget over Southwestern Germany under Different Synoptic Conditions

Abstract This study addresses the question of how complex topography in a low-mountain region affects the partitioning and the variability of the atmospheric water budget components (WBCs) as a function of synoptic-scale flow conditions. The WBCs are calculated for regions of different size and location in southwestern Germany and the summer months from 2005 to 2009 using the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-CLM driven by Global Model (GME) analyses. Comparisons with observations from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) performed in summer 2007 show that the model is capable of simulating the atmospheric water budget reasonably (absolute mean error between 0.1 and 0.7 kg m−2 day−1). To investigate the influence of synoptic weather conditions, the daily WBCs are classified based on the inflow direction of the air masses and the cyclonality at 500 hPa. Using statistical tests, four groups out of the six synoptic conditions have significantly different distributions of the WBCs. This can be explained by differences in the air mass features and the influence of high/low pressure systems. The sensitivity of the modeled WBCs to topography and land cover is investigated by comparing a region in the flat upper Rhine Valley with one in the mountainous Black Forest/Swabian Jura. Compared to the Rhine Valley, increases of evapotranspiration (+5% to +16%), precipitation (+26% to +57%), and moisture convergence (+24% to +93%) are noticeable in the low-mountain region. Local modifications of the synoptic-scale flow, thermally induced winds, and land use cause this intensification of the atmospheric water budget, especially on the windward slopes of the mountains.

Sensitivities of a Squall Line over Central Europe in a Convective-Scale Ensemble

AbstractConvective-scale ensemble simulations with perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions are performed to investigate the mechanisms and sensitivities of a central European convection event from the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS). In this event, a “primary” squall line developed ahead of a decaying mesoscale convective system (MCS) upstream of the Vosges Mountains (France), weakened over the Rhine valley, then regenerated as a “secondary” squall line over the Black Forest Mountains (Germany). All ensemble members captured the squall-line evolution, but most suffered from a delay in the onset of convection and positional errors of 50–150 km over the COPS region. These errors in the secondary initiation were linked to errors in the primary initiation. Detailed analysis revealed a similar primary initiation mechanism in all members: in the ascending branch of a midlevel frontal circulation ahead of the MCS, convection initiated within a mesoscale moisture anomaly embedded within the prefrontal flow. The differences in the skill of the ensemble members were related to subtle differences in their initial upper-level representation of potential vorticity (PV). Members that verified well possessed a stronger PV gradient at the leading edge of an upper-level trough. This led to more rapid cyclogenesis over northern France and the United Kingdom and faster development and propagation of the midlevel front and the prefrontal moisture anomaly. As a consequence, the squall lines in these members developed earlier and closer to the COPS region. This case study provides an example of the subtle mechanisms by which errors on the larger scales may transfer to the convective scale and lead to errors in quantitative precipitation forecasts.

High-resolution representation of the mechanisms responsible for the initiation of isolated thunderstorms over flat and complex terrains: analysis of CSIP and COPS cases

Two important measurement campaigns took place in Europe in the last years, the Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) and the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) to gain a better understanding of why deep convection develops. In both campaigns, a dense network of instruments was deployed for detailed observation of the boundary layer characteristics. This paper investigates the usefulness of the combination of high-resolution surface, GPS, and radiosonde measurements to ascertain the likelihood of deep convection in particular for the complex terrain of the COPS domain. Two convection episodes were analysed for this purpose, one from the CSIP campaign and one from the COPS experiment. This study shows that despite the high spatial resolution of the radiosonde network in comparison to current observations, it was necessary to ascertain higher-resolution data sets illustrating the spatial variability of humidity, atmospheric stability, and convective inhibition. GPS and radiosonde data were used to determine high-resolution humidity fields, yielding high-resolution convection-related parameters’ fields representing atmospheric instability and inhibition in the area. The surface data provided a high-resolution representation of the near-surface convergence zones, which acted as triggering mechanism. The use of GPS measurements and surface stations, in addition to radiosonde measurements, turned out to be especially helpful to determine the regions of increased likelihood of deep convection.

Detailed flow, hydrometeor and lightning characteristics of an isolated thunderstorm during COPS

Abstract. The three-hour life-cycle of the isolated thunderstorm on 15 July 2007 during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) is documented in detail, with a special emphasis on the rapid development and mature phases. Remote sensing techniques as 5-min rapid scans from geostationary satellites, combined velocity retrievals from up to four Doppler-radars, the polarimetric determination of hydrometeors and spatio-temporal occurrences of lightning strokes are employed to arrive at a quantification of the physical parameters of this, during the COPS period, singular event. Inner cloud flow fields are available from radar multiple Doppler analyses at four consecutive times separated by 15 min-intervals. They contain horizontal winds of around 15 m s−1 and updrafts exceeding 5 m s−1, the latter collocated with lightning strokes. Reflectivity and polarimetric data indicate the existence of hail at the 2 km level around 14:40. Furthermore, polarimetric and Doppler radar variables indicate intense hydrometeor variability and turbulence corresponding to an enhanced variance of the retrieved 3-D wind fields. Profiles of flow and hydrometeor statistics over the entire cloud volume provide reference data for high-resolution numerical weather prediction runs in research mode. The study embarks from two movie-loops of geostationary satellite imagery (as Supplement), which provide an intuitive distinction of six phases making up the entire life-cycle of the thunderstorm. It concludes with a triple-image loop, juxtaposing a close-up of the cloud motion as seen by Meteosat, simulated brightness temperature (as a proxy for clouds seen by the infrared satellite channel), and a perspective view on the model generated system of cloud cells. The simulation suggests that several updrafts fed from a low level convergence line eventually removed the convective inhibition and set deep convection in motion. A shear line in the radial velocity relative to the Feldberg radar site shows good agreement beween observation and simulation, whereas the onset location of deep convection exhibits a horizontal discrepancy of 15 km. A quantitative schematic of the isolated thunderstorm synthesizes all retrieved characteristics.

Lidar and radar measurements of the melting layer: observations of dark and bright band phenomena

Abstract. Multi-wavelength lidar measurements in the melting layer revealing the presence of dark and bright bands have been performed by the University of BASILicata Raman lidar system (BASIL) during a stratiform rain event. Simultaneously radar measurements have been also performed from the same site by the University of Hamburg cloud radar MIRA 36 (35.5 GHz), the University of Hamburg dual-polarization micro rain radar (24.15 GHz) and the University of Manchester UHF wind profiler (1.29 GHz). Measurements from BASIL and the radars are illustrated and discussed in this paper for a specific case study on 23 July 2007 during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). Simulations of the lidar dark and bright band based on the application of concentric/eccentric sphere Lorentz-Mie codes and a melting layer model are also provided. Lidar and radar measurements and model results are also compared with measurements from a disdrometer on ground and a two-dimensional cloud (2DC) probe on-board the ATR42 SAFIRE. Measurements and model results are found to confirm and support the conceptual microphysical/scattering model elaborated by Sassen et al. (2005).

Large‐scale potential vorticity anomalies and deep convection

AbstractThe effect on deep convection of large‐scale potential vorticity (PV) anomalies and their associated tropospheric stable layers is complex and not well understood. This article examines the meteorological events of 9 July 2007 (IOP7b of the Convective and Orographically‐induced Precipitation Study (COPS)), which was dominated by an upper‐level PV anomaly that stretched from the UK to southern France and as far northeast as Denmark. Three precipitation regions were identified from the case: lines of intense storms beneath the PV anomaly; less intense, more widespread convective precipitation to the east of the PV anomaly; and, in between, a region of no precipitation. The latter of these coincided with the high‐resolution measurements and model analyses from COPS. The extensive and varied data analyzed in this investigation show that convective available potential energy (CAPE) was present in this region (the distribution of CAPE and convective inhibition (CIN) is presented via an innovative, pseudo‐3D visualization that allows horizontal and vertical interactions to be considered). However, convection was capped by a complex arrangement of dry layers; the base of the key layer was at 750 hPa. These dry layers descended separately from the upper troposphere, moving around the PV anomaly as it developed from a breaking Rossby wave to the west during the seven days before the IOP. This case adds to other studies that show that descent of complex dry layers is an important mechanism for forming convection‐inhibiting atmospheric lids in Western Europe. A simple conceptual model is developed that synthesizes the effect of large‐scale PV anomalies on deep convection from a series of consistent case studies. This model has significant implications for storm forecasting and projections of storminess in future climates, as it highlights the importance of thin structures that can advect hundreds of km before having an impact. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Raman lidar observations of a Saharan dust outbreak event: Characterization of the dust optical properties and determination of particle size and microphysical parameters

The Raman lidar system BASIL was operational in Achern (Black Forest) between 25 May and 30 August 2007 in the framework of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). The system performed continuous measurements over a period of approx. 36 h from 06:22 UTC on 1 August to 18:28 UTC on 2 August 2007, capturing the signature of a severe Saharan dust outbreak episode. The data clearly reveal the presence of two almost separate aerosol layers: a lower layer located between 1.5 and 3.5 km above ground level (a.g.l.) and an upper layer extending between 3.0 and 6.0 km a.g.l. The time evolution of the dust cloud is illustrated and discussed in the paper in terms of several optical parameters (particle backscatter ratio at 532 and 1064 nm, the colour ratio and the backscatter Angström parameter). An inversion algorithm was used to retrieve particle size and microphysical parameters, i.e., mean and effective radius, number, surface area, volume concentration, and complex refractive index, as well as the parameters of a bimodal particle size distribution (PSD), from the multi-wavelength lidar data of particle backscattering, extinction and depolarization. The retrieval scheme employs Tikhonov’s inversion with regularization and makes use of kernel functions for randomly oriented spheroids. Size and microphysical parameters of dust particles are estimated as a function of altitude at different times during the dust outbreak event. Retrieval results reveal the presence of a fine mode with radii of 0.1–0.2 μm and a coarse mode with radii of 3–5 μm both in the lower and upper dust layers, and the dominance in the upper dust layer of a coarse mode with radii of 4–5 μm. Effective radius varies with altitude in the range 0.1–1.5 μm, while volume concentration is found to not exceed 92 μm3 cm−3. The real and imaginary part of the complex refractive index vary in the range 1.4–1.6 and 0.004–0.008, respectively.

Comparison of Raman Lidar Observations of Water Vapor with COSMO-DE Forecasts during COPS 2007

Abstract Water vapor measurements with the multiwavelength Raman lidar Backscatter Extinction Lidar-Ratio Temperature Humidity Profiling Apparatus (BERTHA) were performed during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) in the Black Forest, Germany, from June to August 2007. For quality assurance, profiles of the water vapor mixing ratio measured with BERTHA are compared to simultaneous measurements of a radiosonde and an airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) on 31 July 2007. The differences from the radiosonde observations are found to be on average 1.5% and 2.5% in the residual layer and in the free troposphere, respectively. During the two overflights at 1937 and 2018 UTC, the differences from the DIAL results are −2.2% and −3.7% in the residual layer and 2.1% and −2.6% in the free troposphere. After this performance check, short-range forecasts from the German Meteorological Service’s (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) version of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO-DE) model are compared to the BERTHA measurements for two case studies. Generally, it is found that water vapor mixing ratios from short-range forecasts are on average 7.9% drier than the values measured in the residual layer. In the free troposphere, modeled values are 9.7% drier than the measurements.

A Numerical Sensitivity Study on the Impact of Soil Moisture on Convection-Related Parameters and Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain

Abstract The impact of soil moisture on convection-related parameters and convective precipitation over complex terrain is studied by numerical experiments using the nonhydrostatic Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) model. For 1 day of the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) conducted during summer 2007 in southwestern Germany and eastern France, initial soil moisture is varied from −50% to +50% of the reference run in steps of 5%. As synoptic-scale forcing is weak on the day under investigation, the triggering of convection is mainly due to soil–atmosphere interactions and boundary layer processes. Whereas a systematic relationship to soil moisture exists for a number of variables (e.g., latent and sensible fluxes at the ground, near-surface temperature, and humidity), a systematic increase of 24-h accumulated precipitation with increasing initial soil moisture is only present in the simulations that are drier than the reference run. The time evolution of convective precipitation can be divided into two regimes with different conditions to initiate and foster convection. Furthermore, the impact of soil moisture is different for the initiation and modification of convective precipitation. The results demonstrate the high sensitivity of numerical weather prediction to initial soil moisture fields.

Ensemble predictability of an isolated mountain thunderstorm in a high‐resolution model

AbstractConvective‐scale ensemble simulations with perturbed initial conditions are performed to investigate the physical mechanisms, sensitivities and predictability of convective precipitation for a well‐observed event from the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS). On this day an isolated thunderstorm developed over the Black Forest mountains in southwest Germany that was initiated by thermally driven low‐level convergence. With the default ensemble configuration, none of the members simulated any deep convection. A soil moisture and atmospheric moisture deficiency was found to be responsible for a lack of boundary layer moisture in the analysis. Correction of this moisture bias yielded an ensemble in which some members produced a realistic convective storm. In contrast, other members only produced shallow convection. A robust feature of the members that simulated the storm was that an impinging upper‐level disturbance to the west had progressed further east towards the COPS region. This led to increased westerly winds aloft, which when mixed down into the boundary layer acted to feed a deeper layer of moist valley air into the convergent mountain circulation. The simulations reveal a very strong sensitivity to uncertainties in the large‐scale flow as well as the boundary layer structure and stability. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Soil moisture impacts on convective indices and precipitation over complex terrain

The impact of soil moisture on convective precipitation, convective indices, surface energy balance components, and near-surface meteorological variables is analysed for seven intensive observation periods of the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS) conducted in summer 2007 using a non-hydrostatic limited-area atmospheric prediction model. The control runs are compared to sensitivity experiments under dry (-25 %) and wet (+25 %) initial soil moisture conditions. In the wet experiment, surface fluxes produce moister and cooler boundary layers with increased equivalent potential temperatures. Furthermore, the lifting condensation level and the level of free convection are lowered for all analysed regions, even under different synoptic controls. The comparison of boundary-layer and mid-tropospheric forcing regimes reveal that the impact of soil moisture on the atmosphere is not systematically higher for boundary-layer forcing. Whereas the Bowen ratio exhibits a clear dependence on soil moisture conditions, the impact on precipitation is complex and strongly depends on convective inhibition. A considerable, but non-systematic dependence of convective precipitation on soil moisture exists in the analysed complex orography. The results demonstrate the high sensitivity of numerical weather prediction to initial soil moisture fields.

Cloud-Resolving Simulations of Deep Convection over a Heated Mountain

AbstractCloud-resolving numerical simulations of airflow over a diurnally heated mountain ridge are conducted to explore the mechanisms and sensitivities of convective initiation under high pressure conditions. The simulations are based on a well-observed convection event from the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) during summer 2007, where an isolated afternoon thunderstorm developed over the Black Forest mountains of central Europe, but they are idealized to facilitate understanding and reduce computational expense.In the conditionally unstable but strongly inhibited flow under consideration, sharp horizontal convergence over the mountain acts to locally weaken the inhibition and moisten the dry midtroposphere through shallow cumulus detrainment. The onset of deep convection occurs not through the deep ascent of a single updraft but rather through a rapid succession of thermals that are vented through the mountain convergence zone into the deepening cloud mass. Emerging thermals rise through the saturated wakes of their predecessors, which diminishes the suppressive effects of entrainment and allows for rapid glaciation above the freezing level as supercooled cloud drops rime onto preexisting ice particles. These effects strongly enhance the midlevel cloud buoyancy and enable rapid ascent to the tropopause. The existence and vigor of the convection is highly sensitive to small changes in background wind speed U0, which controls the strength of the mountain convergence and the ability of midlevel moisture to accumulate above the mountain. Whereas vigorous deep convection develops for U0 = 0 m s−1, deep convection is completely eliminated for U0 = 3 m s−1. Although deep convection is able to develop under intermediate winds (U0 = 1.5 m s−1), its formation is highly sensitive to small-amplitude perturbations in the initial flow.

Predictive skill of a subset of models participating in D‐PHASE in the COPS region

AbstractThe unique combination of observing and modelling efforts during the Convective and Orographically‐induced Precipitation Study (COPS) and D‐PHASE (Demonstration of the Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the alpine region) allows the systematic evaluation of models participating in D‐PHASE with observations collected during COPS. This study verifies a subset of the D‐PHASE models in the COPS region, including convection‐permitting models as well as models with convection parametrization. Observations from the Joint D‐PHASE/COPS (JDC) dataset are applied and processed with the Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis (VERA). The focus is set on monthly accumulated sums of the 12‐hourly precipitation between 0600 and 1800 UTC and includes comparisons of horizontal distributions, averaged diurnal cycles and neighbourhood verification techniques. Two fuzzy verification scores were applied: The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Upscaling.The FSS analysis shows that all models are capable of forecasting the correct distribution of precipitation, especially for low precipitation thresholds. Low scores in the upscaling analysis reveal weaknesses in predicting the amounts of precipitation. The high‐resolution models usually outperform their lower‐resolution counterparts. This is true for the skill score analysis as well as the comparison of the horizontal distribution and the diurnal cycle averaged over the COPS period. Large differences between the models and the observations occur in regions with complex terrain, especially for models applying a convection scheme. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society