Convective Adjustment Research Articles

The persisting conundrum of mantle viscosity inferred from mantle convection and glacial isostatic adjustment processes

Mantle viscosity exerts important controls on the long-term (i.e., >106 years) dynamics of the mantle and lithosphere and the short-term (i.e., 10 to 104 years) crustal motion induced by loading forces including ice melting, sea-level changes, and earthquakes. However, mantle viscosity structures inferred from modeling observations associated with mantle dynamic and loading processes may differ significantly and remain a hotly debated topic over recent decades. In this study, we investigate the effects of mantle viscosity structures on observations of the geoid, mantle structures, and present-day crustal motions and time-varying gravity by considering five representative mantle viscosity structures in models of mantle convection and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). These five viscosity models fall into two categories: 1) two viscosity models derived from modeling the geoid in mantle convection models with ∼100 times more viscous lower mantle than the upper mantle, and 2) the other three with less viscosity increase from the upper to lower mantles that are derived from modeling the late Pleistocene and Holocene relative sea level changes and other observations in GIA models. Our convection models use the plate motion history for the last 130 Myrs as the surface boundary conditions and depth- and temperature-dependent viscosity to predict the present-day convective mantle structure of subducted slabs and the intermediate wavelength (degrees 4–12) geoid. Our GIA models using different ice history models (e.g., ICE-6 G and ANU) compute the GIA-induced present-day crustal motions and time-varying gravity. Our calculations demonstrate that while the viscosity models with a higher viscosity in the lower mantle (∼2 × 1022 Pa.s) reproduce the degrees 4–12 geoid and seismic slab structures, they significantly over-predict the geodetic (i.e., GPS and GRACE) observations of crustal motions and time varying gravity. Our calculations also show that while two viscosity models derived from fitting the RSL data with averaged mantle viscosity of ∼1021 Pa.s for the top 1200 km of the mantle reproduce well the geodetic observations independent of ice models, they fail to explain the geoid and seismic slab structures. Therefore, our study highlights the persisting conundrum of mantle viscosity structures derived from different observations. We also discuss a number of possible ways including transient, stress-dependent and 3-D viscosity to resolve this important issue in Geodynamics.

Convergence of ensemble forecast distributions in weak and strong forcing convective weather regimes

AbstractThe constraint of computational power and the huge number of degrees of freedom of the atmosphere means a sampling uncertainty exists in probabilistic ensemble forecasts. In our previous study, the uncertainty could be quantified, creating a convergence measure which converges proportional to in the limit of large ensemble size . This power law can then be extrapolated to determine how sampling uncertainty would decrease with larger ensemble sizes and hence find the necessary ensemble size. It is unknown, however, how the sampling uncertainty depends on different weather regimes. This study extends the previous idealised ensemble developed, by including weak and strong forcing convective weather regimes, to look at how sampling uncertainty convergence differs in each. Two ‐member ensembles were run, with weak and strong forcing respectively. Comparisons with a kilometre‐scale weather prediction model ensured realistic weak and strong forcing regimes by comparing the rain, convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective adjustment timescale, and distribution shapes throughout the diurnal cycle. Differences in distribution shape between the regimes led to differences in the convergence measure. Large differences in spread between weak and strong forcing runs throughout the hr period led to large differences in sampling uncertainty of the mean and standard deviation, which could be quantified according to well‐known equations. The timing of these differences was case‐dependent. For extreme statistics such as the quantile and for cases where there was precipitation, the moisture variables for the weak forcing case had the largest sampling uncertainty and required the most members for convergence proportional to . This was due to the tails of the weak forcing moisture variables containing the least amount of density. Different ensemble sizes will hence be required depending on whether one is in the weak or strong forcing convective weather regime.

The Reexamination of the Moisture–Vortex and Baroclinic Instabilities in the South Asian Monsoon

Observational analyses reveal that a dominant mode in the South Asian Monsoon region in boreal summer is a westward-propagating synoptic-scale disturbance with a typical wavelength of 4000 km that is coupled with moistening and precipitation processes. The disturbances exhibit an eastward tilt during their development before reaching their maximum activity center. A 2.5-layer model that extends a classic 2-level quasi-geostrophic model by including a prognostic lower-tropospheric moisture tendency equation and an interactive planetary boundary layer was constructed. The eigenvalue analysis of this model shows that the most unstable mode has a preferred zonal wavelength of 4000 km, a westward phase speed of 6 m s−1, an eastward tilt vertical structure, and a westward shift of maximum moisture/precipitation center relative to the lower-tropospheric vorticity center, all of which agree with the observations. Sensitivity experiments show that the moisture–vortex instability determines, to a large extent, the growth rate, while the baroclinic instability helps set up the preferred zonal scale. Ekman-pumping-induced vertical moisture advection prompts an in-phase component of perturbation moisture relative to the low-level cyclonic center, allowing the generation of available potential energy and perturbation growth, regardless of whether or not a low-level mean westerly is presented. In contrast to a previous study, the growth rate is reversely proportional to the convective adjustment time. The current work sheds light on understanding the moisture–vortex and the baroclinic instability in a monsoonal environment with a pronounced easterly vertical shear.

Classification of Warm-Season Precipitation in High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Forecasts over the Contiguous United States

Abstract This study uses the convective adjustment time scale to identify the climatological frequency of equilibrium and nonequilibrium convection in different parts of the contiguous United States (CONUS) as modeled by the operational convection-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast system. We find a qualitatively different climatology in the northern and southern domains separated by the 40°N parallel. The convective adjustment time scale picks up the fact that convection over the northern domains is governed by synoptic flow (leading to equilibrium), while locally forced, nonequilibrium convection dominates over the southern domains. Using a machine learning algorithm, we demonstrate that the convective adjustment time-scale diagnostic provides a sensible classification that agrees with the underlying dynamics of equilibrium and nonequilibrium convection. Furthermore, the convective adjustment time scale can indicate the model quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) quality, as it correctly reflects the higher QPF skill for precipitation under strong synoptic forcing. This diagnostic based on the strength of forcing for convection will be employed in future studies across different parts of CONUS to objectively distinguish different weather situations and explore the potential connection to warm-season precipitation predictability. Significance Statement An objective classification metric that can delineate a wide range of forecasts into distinct scenarios can serve as a valuable tool. This study represents a pioneering effort in utilizing the convective adjustment time scale to identify the climatological frequency of warm-season precipitation under varying levels of synoptic forcing in different parts of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The results demonstrate that the convective adjustment time scale is a robust metric for categorizing precipitation events and establishing a direct link to their predictability. Overall, this study provides a valuable framework for future studies focused on the CONUS domain, offering guidance on how to employ the convective adjustment time scale to classify weather regimes and explore the influence of environmental conditions on predictability of convection.

Modeling Noncondensing Compositional Convection for Applications to Super-Earth and Sub-Neptune Atmospheres

Compositional convection is atmospheric mixing driven by density variations caused by compositional gradients. Previous studies have suggested that compositional gradients of atmospheric trace species within planetary atmospheres can impact convection and the final atmospheric temperature profile. In this work, we employ 3D convection-resolving simulations using Cloud Model 1 (CM1) to gain a fundamental understanding of how compositional variation influences convection and the final atmospheric state of exoplanet atmospheres. We perform 3D initial value problem simulations of noncondensing compositional convection for Earth-air, H2, and CO2 atmospheres. Conventionally, atmospheric convection is assumed to mix the atmosphere to a final, marginally stable state defined by a unique temperature profile. However, when there is compositional variation within an atmosphere, a continuous family of stable end states is possible, differing in the final state composition profile. Our CM1 simulations are used to determine which of the family of possible compositional end states is selected. Leveraging the results from our CM1 simulations, we develop a dry convective adjustment scheme for use in general circulation models (GCMs). This scheme relies on an energy analysis to determine the final adjusted atmospheric state. Our convection scheme produces results that agree with our CM1 simulations and can easily be implemented in GCMs to improve modeling of compositional convection in exoplanet atmospheres.

Incorporating the Effect of Large‐Scale Vertical Motion on Convection Through Convective Mass Flux Adjustment in E3SMv2

AbstractRecent observational studies suggest that the large‐scale dynamical forcing (vertical motion) plays important roles in deep convection development. In this study we propose a convective mass flux adjustment (MAdj) approach to represent the dynamical effects of large‐scale vertical motion on convection in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). With MAdj, convection is enhanced (suppressed) when there is large‐scale ascending (descending) motion at the planetary boundary layer top. The coupling of convection with large‐scale circulation significantly improves the simulation of climate variability in E3SMv2 across multiple scales from the diurnal cycle, convectively coupled equatorial waves, to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). The standard E3SMv2 tends to simulate overly weak diurnal amplitude of precipitation and overly weak variance of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin and westward inertio‐gravity (WIG) waves. It also fails to simulate the essential characteristics of the MJO: continuous eastward propagation. With MAdj, the amplitude of diurnal cycle of precipitation is systematically increased and its probability density distribution is much closer to observations. The MAdj can also simulate more realistic eastward propagation of the MJO and much stronger convectively coupled Kelvin and WIG waves. Moreover, the MAdj approach slightly improves the climatology simulations in precipitation, cloud, radiation, circulation, temperature, and moisture fields, with overall root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of major climatological fields reduced by about 2%. The MAdj approach suppresses excessive grid‐scale precipitation, reducing precipitation wet biases over South China Sea, Philippine Sea, Himalayas, and South Pacific Convergence Zone in western Pacific in summer.

Is the Madden‐Julian Oscillation a Moisture Mode?

AbstractThe governing thermodynamics of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using sounding and reanalysis data. On the basis of four objective criteria, results suggest that the MJO behaves like a moisture mode–a system whose thermodynamics is governed by moisture–only over the Indian Ocean. Over this basin, the MJO shows a slow convective adjustment timescale, its zonal scale is smaller, and it exhibits slow propagation, allowing moisture modes to exist. Elsewhere, the faster‐propagating wavenumber 1–2 components are more prominent preventing weak temperature gradient (WTG) balance to be established. As a result, temperature and moisture play similar roles in the MJO's thermodynamics outside the Indian Ocean.

MJO in Different Orbital Regimes: Role of the Mean State in the MJO’s Amplitude during Boreal Winter

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) exhibits pronounced seasonality, with one of the key unanswered questions being the following: what controls the maximum in MJO precipitation variance in the Southern Hemisphere during boreal winter? In this study, we examine a set of global climate model simulations in which the eccentricity and precession of Earth’s orbit are altered to change the boreal winter mean state in an attempt to reveal the processes that are responsible for the MJO’s amplitude in the boreal winter. In response to the forced insolation changes, the north–south asymmetry in sea surface temperature is amplified in boreal fall, which intensifies the Hadley circulation in boreal winter. The stronger Hadley circulation yields higher mean precipitation and stronger mean lower-tropospheric westerlies in the southern part of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The MJO precipitation variability increases significantly where the mean precipitation and lower-tropospheric westerlies strengthen. In the column-integrated moisture budget of the simulated MJO, only surface latent heat flux feedback shows a trend that is consistent with the MJO’s amplitude, suggesting an important role for the surface latent heat flux feedback in the MJO’s amplitude during the boreal winter. An analysis of the moisture–precipitation relationship in the simulations shows that the increase in the mean precipitation lowers the convective moisture adjustment time scale, leading to the increase in precipitation variance. Our results suggest that the mean-state precipitation plays a critical role in the maintenance mechanism of the MJO.

Scaling for Saturated Moist Quasigeostrophic Turbulence

Abstract Much of our conceptual understanding of midlatitude atmospheric motion comes from two-layer quasigeostrophic (QG) models. Traditionally, these QG models do not include moisture, which accounts for an estimated 30%–60% of the available energy of the atmosphere. The atmospheric moisture content is expected to increase under global warming, and therefore, a theory for how moisture modifies atmospheric dynamics is crucial. We use a two-layer moist QG model with convective adjustment as a basis for analyzing how latent heat release and large-scale moisture gradients impact the scalings of a midlatitude system at the synoptic scale. In this model, the degree of saturation can be tuned independently of other moist parameters by enforcing a high rate of evaporation from the surface. This allows for study of the effects of latent heat release at saturation, without the intrinsic nonlinearity of precipitation. At saturation, this system is equivalent to the dry QG model under a rescaling of both length and time. This predicts that the most unstable mode shifts to smaller scales, the growth rates increase, and the inverse cascade extends to larger scales. We verify these results numerically and use them to verify a framework for the complete energetics of a moist system. We examine the spectral features of the energy transfer terms. This analysis shows that precipitation generates energy at small scales, while dry dynamics drive a significant broadening to larger scales. Cascades of energy are still observed in all terms, albeit without a clearly defined inertial range. Significance Statement The effect of moist processes, especially the impact of latent heating associated with condensation, on the size and strength of midlatitude storms is not well understood. Such insight is particularly needed in the context of global warming, as we expect moisture to play a more important role in a warmer world. In this study, we provide intuition into how including condensation can result in midlatitude storms that grow faster and have features on both larger and smaller scales than their dry counterparts. We provide a framework for quantifying these changes and verify it for the special case where it is raining everywhere. These findings can be extended to the more realistic situation where it is only raining locally.

Effects of Sea-Surface Temperature, Cloud Vertical Structure and Wind Speed on Temperature Change between Hiatus and Post-Hiatus Periods in Tropical Western Pacific

A region in the tropical western Pacific is selected to study the notable change in temperature between the recent warming hiatus period and the post-hiatus period. In total, three probable factors, namely sea-surface temperature (SST), cloud vertical structure (CVS) and wind speed, which may account for the temperature change are found to exhibit noticeable differences between these two periods. A one-dimensional atmospheric radiative transfer model, incorporating convective adjustment and energy exchange with the ocean, is developed to simulate the diurnal pattern of temperature profile under the influence of the three probable factors in the two concerned periods. Virtual profiles of sea-surface temperature, cloud vertical structure and wind speed in both periods are developed from data available in the literature. Diurnal patterns of temperatures near the air–sea interface are computed with the proposed model over a sufficient number of days. The simulated temperatures under different combinations of factors, in either the hiatus or post-hiatus period, are statistically analyzed to gain insights about the separate and combined effects of these three factors on causing climate change.

Control of the Air‐Sea Oxygen to Heat Flux Ratio During Deep Convection Events

AbstractEarth System Models project a decline of dissolved oxygen in the oceans due to climate warming. Observational studies suggest that the ratio of O2 inventory to ocean heat content is several fold larger than what can be explained by solubility alone, but the ratio remains poorly understood. In this work, models of different complexity are used to understand the factors controlling the air‐sea O2 flux to heat flux ratio (O2/heat flux ratio) during deep convection. Our theoretical analysis based on a one‐dimensional convective adjustment model indicates that the vertical stratification and distribution of oxygen before the convective mixing determines the upper bound for the O2/heat flux ratio. Two competing rates, the mean entrainment rate of deeper waters into the mixed layer and the rate of air‐sea gas exchange, determine how much the actual ratio departs from the upper bound. The theoretical predictions are tested against the outputs of a regional ocean model. The model sensitivity experiments broadly agree with the theoretical predictions. Our results suggest that the relative vertical gradients of temperature and oxygen at sites of deep water formation are an important local metric to quantify the marginal changes between years with high and lower heat loss.

A Filtered Model for the Tropical Intraseasonal Moisture Mode

AbstractThe authors propose a new analytic approximation to aid understanding of the “moisture modes” that arise in idealized models of tropical intraseasonal oscillations. The approximation makes use of the separation between the time scale of the large scale flow and that of convective adjustment, but does not neglect the moisture tendency. The approximation filters out equatorial Kelvin waves, so that the only remaining mode is the intraseasonal moisture mode. Some physical insights are more transparent under the approximation: (a) vertical advection of moisture or temperature lead to a diffusion‐type operator that damps short waves, and instability is strongest at planetary scale. (b) A positive effective gross moist stability appears in a wave operator, while a negative effective gross moist stability leads to instabilities whose growth rates increase with zonal wavenumber. (c) Zonal moisture advection and surface flux feedbacks are crucial for both planetary instability and eastward propagation.

The Impact of Mean-State Moisture Biases on MJO Skill in the Navy ESPC

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a key source of predictability in the subseasonal time scale (weeks to months) and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena. Although there have been enormous gains in simulating the MJO, many climate and forecast models still have biases in MJO behavior and structure. In this study, we examine the MJO in the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy ESPC) forecasts performed for the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) using process-based diagnostics and a moisture budget analysis that uses wavenumber–frequency filtering to isolate the MJO. The MJO in the Navy ESPC is too strong in both boreal winter and summer. This amplitude bias is driven by biases in the vertical moisture advection in the Navy ESPC, which is too strong and deep, driven by a more bottom-heavy vertical motion profile and too steep lower-tropospheric vertical moisture gradient. Additionally, the convective moisture adjustment time scale in the Navy ESPC is faster than observed, such that for a given moisture anomaly the precipitation response is greater than observed. In the Navy ESPC, the MJO propagation shows strong agreement with observations in the Indian Ocean, followed by too rapid propagation east of the Maritime Continent in both seasons. This MJO acceleration east of the Maritime Continent is linked to an acceleration of moisture anomalies driven by biases in anomalous moisture tendency. The mechanisms that drive this bias have seasonal differences, with excess evaporation in the western Pacific dominating in boreal winter and horizontal moisture advection dominating in boreal summer.

The roles of small‐scale topographic perturbations in precipitation forecasting using a convection‐permitting ensemble prediction system over southern China

AbstractThe effects of small‐scale topographic perturbations on precipitation forecasts are investigated using the China Meteorological Administration's Convection‐Permitting Ensemble Prediction System. Southern China is chosen as the study domain because complex terrain is located there and heavy rainfall frequently occurs. The investigation comprises seven cases including strong and weak forcings on the synoptic scale in terms of convective adjustment time‐scale and synoptic conditions. To construct the topographic perturbation scheme, the standard deviations of small‐scale topographic heights and random fields were first introduced, and sensitivity runs with different topographic perturbation magnitudes were performed at a 3‐km horizontal grid spacing. The results indicate that the model runs with a single topographic perturbation show small changes in precipitation forecasts on strong‐forcing cases and more important impacts for weak‐forcing events, but the effect is also restricted to the control forecast skills. In addition, the topographic perturbation impacts the precipitation forecasts through dynamic processes, and the impact areas are mainly found at locations with rainstorms and heavy rainstorms in the observations. Moreover, the precipitation forecasts react sensitively to the topographic perturbation magnitude, with a larger topographic perturbation magnitude leading to larger amplitudes and spatial gain of precipitation ensemble spread, as well as a better Brier score. However, the selection of the perturbation magnitude is also influenced by the standard deviations of the small‐scale topographic heights.

Dynamical Effect on Static Stability of the Venus Atmosphere Simulated Using a General Circulation Model: A Comparison With Radio Occultation Measurements

AbstractDistributions of temperature and static stability in the Venus atmosphere consistent with recent radio occultation measurements are reproduced using a general circulation model. A low‐stability layer is maintained at low‐ and mid‐latitudes at 50–60 km altitude and is sandwiched by high‐ and moderate‐stability layers extending above 60 and below 50 km, respectively. In the polar region, the low‐stability layer is located at 46–63 km altitude and the relatively low‐stability layer is also found at 40–46 km altitude. To investigate how these thermal structures form, we examine the dynamical effects of the atmospheric motions on the static stability below 65 km altitude. The results show that the heat transports due to the mean meridional circulation and disturbances are important in low‐latitudes. The mid‐ and high‐latitudes above ∼47 km are destabilized by radiative processes and stabilized by the disturbances, which are mainly associated with baroclinic Rossby‐type waves. Below ∼47 km altitude, the polar region is destabilized by the dynamical processes which induce the appreciable equatorward heat transport, which might be related to Rossby waves in the sub‐cloud region, although the suppression of convective adjustment at cloud heights leads to stabilization at 43–47 km.

The MJO on the Equatorial Beta Plane: An Eastward-Propagating Rossby Wave Induced by Meridional Moisture Advection

AbstractLinearized wave solutions on the equatorial beta plane are examined in the presence of a background meridional moisture gradient. Of interest is a slow, eastward-propagating n = 1 mode that is unstable at planetary scales and only exists for a small range of zonal wavenumbers (). The mode dispersion curve appears as an eastward extension of the westward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave solution. This mode is therefore termed the eastward-propagating equatorial Rossby wave (ERW). The zonal wavenumber-2 ERW horizontal structure consists of a low-level equatorial convergence center flanked by quadrupole off-equatorial gyres, and resembles the horizontal structure of the observed MJO. An analytic, leading-order dispersion relationship for the ERW shows that meridional moisture advection imparts eastward propagation, and that the smallness of a gross moist stability–like parameter contributes to the slow phase speed. The ERW is unstable near planetary scales when low-level easterlies moisten the column. This moistening could come from either zonal moisture advection or surface fluxes or a combination thereof. When westerlies instead moisten the column, the ERW is damped and the westward-propagating long Rossby wave is unstable. The ERW does not exist when the meridional moisture gradient is too weak. A moist static energy budget analysis shows that the ERW scale selection is partly due to finite-time-scale convective adjustment and less effective zonal wind–induced moistening at smaller scales. Similarities in the phase speed, preferred scale, and horizontal structure suggest that the ERW is a beta-plane analog of the MJO.

Intercomparison of MJO Column Moist Static Energy and Water Vapor Budget among Six Modern Reanalysis Products

AbstractThis study conducts an intercomparison of the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) and water vapor budget of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) among six modern global reanalysis products (RAs). Inter-RA differences in the mean MSE, MJO MSE anomalies, individual MSE budget terms, and their relative contributions to the propagation and maintenance of MJO MSE anomalies are examined. Also investigated is the relationship between the MJO column water vapor (CWV) budget residuals with the other CWV budget terms as well as with the two parameters that characterize cloud–radiation feedback and moisture–convection coupling. Results show a noticeable inter-RA spread in the mean-state MSE, especially its vertical structure. In all RAs, horizontal MSE advection dominates the propagation of the MJO MSE while column-integrated longwave radiative heating and vertical MSE advection are found to be the key processes for MJO maintenance. The MSE budget terms directly affected by the model parameterization schemes exhibit high uncertainty. The differences in anomalous vertical velocity mainly contribute to the large differences in vertical MSE advection among the RAs. The budget residuals show large inter-RA differences and have nonnegligible contributions to MJO maintenance and propagation in most RAs. RAs that underestimate (overestimate) the strength of cloud–radiation feedback and the convective moisture adjustment time scale tend to have positive (negative) MJO CWV budget residual, indicating the critical role of these processes in the maintenance of MJO CWV anomalies. Our results emphasize that a correct representation of the interactions among moisture, convection, cloud, and radiation is the key for an accurate depiction of the MJO MSE and CWV budget in RAs.

Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control

Abstract. The weather-regime-dependent predictability of precipitation in the convection-permitting kilometric-scale AROME-EPS is examined for the entire HyMeX-SOP1 employing the convective adjustment timescale. This diagnostic quantifies variations in synoptic forcing on precipitation and is associated with different precipitation characteristics, forecast skill and predictability. During strong synoptic control, which dominates the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-month period, the domain-integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the pure spatial forecast quality of the most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentile, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes. The study also considers a prominent heavy-precipitation event that occurred during the NAWDEX field campaign in the same region, and the predictability during this event is compared with the events that occurred during HyMeX. It is shown that the unconditional evaluation of precipitation widely parallels the strongly forced weather type evaluation and obscures forecast model characteristics typical for weak control.

Quasi-Equilibrium and Weak Temperature Gradient Balances in an Equatorial Beta-Plane Model

AbstractConvective quasi-equilibrium (QE) and weak temperature gradient (WTG) balances are frequently employed to study the tropical atmosphere. This study uses linearized equatorial beta-plane solutions to examine the relevant regimes for these balances. Wave solutions are characterized by moisture–temperature ratio (q–T ratio) and dominant thermodynamic balances. An empirically constrained precipitation closure assigns different sensitivities of convection to temperature (εt) and moisture (εq). Longwave equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves tend toward the QE balance with q–T ratios of εt:εq that can be ~1–3. Departures from strict QE, essential to both precipitation and wave dynamics, grow with wavenumber. The propagating QE modes have reduced phase speeds because of the effective gross moist stability meff, with a further reduction when εt > 0. Moisture modes obeying the WTG balance and with large q–T ratios (>10) emerge in the shortwave regime; these modes exist with both Kelvin and Rossby wave meridional structures. In the υ = 0 case, long propagating gravity waves are absent and only emerge beyond a cutoff wavenumber. Two bifurcations in the wave solutions are identified and used to locate the spatial scales for QE–WTG transition and gravity wave emergence. These scales are governed by the competition between the convection and gravity wave adjustment times and are modulated by meff. Near-zero values of meff shift the QE–WTG transition wavenumber toward zero. Continuous transitions replace the bifurcations when meff < 0 or moisture advection/WISHE mechanisms are included, but the wavenumber-dependent QE and WTG balances remain qualitatively unaltered. Rapidly decaying convective/gravity wave modes adjust to the slowly evolving QE/WTG state in the longwave/shortwave regimes, respectively.

Evaluation of convective parameterization schemes in simulation of tropical cyclones by Climate Forecast System model: Version 2

Recently, a high resolution atmospheric general circulation model, i.e., Global Forecast System has been operationalized for 10 days weather forecast over Indian region. However, for extreme weather systems such as cyclones, different physical processes and their interactions with atmosphere and ocean play an important role in cyclone intensity, track, etc. Keeping this in view, Coupled Forecast System model version 2 has been used to evaluate the simulation for three severe cyclones (Phailin, Viyaru and Lehar) of 2013. In the present study, along with already existing mass-flux cumulus parameterization, i.e., Simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) and revised SAS (RSAS) parameterization schemes, an additional convective adjustment scheme, i.e., Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) is implemented and its performance is evaluated for the Indian Ocean cyclones. The experiments are conducted with three cumulus schemes at three different resolutions (T126, T382, and T574). Both SAS and RSAS overestimate convective rain, whereas BMJ scheme produces convective rain comparable with the observation due to the fact that BMJ produces deeper convection and does not trigger the convection too often. BMJ sustains the instability and deep convection longer thereby impacting the cyclone intensity and heavy rainfall associated with it. It is also noted that BMJ is efficient in producing rain than the SAS and RSAS. From the analyses of OLR and rain rate, BMJ is found to simulate a much realistic relation of cloud and precipitation. The paper argues that compared to available SAS and RSAS, BMJ scheme realistically produces heavy precipitation associated with the tropical cyclone over Indian region in a coupled model.