Contribution To Risk Research Articles

Nonlinear relationships of commuting and built environments surrounding residences and workplaces with obesity

Obesity is a prominent risk contributor to health. However, few studies have explored the nonlinear relationships between commuting and built environments, particularly around workplaces, with obesity. Based on a sample of 1080 respondents in Shanghai, China, we used the gradient-boosting decision trees model to investigate the relative contributions and nonlinear relationships of commuting and built environments surrounding residences and workplaces with body mass index (BMI). Results showed that the built environment made greater contributions to BMI than sociodemographics and behavioral attributes. The built environment around workplaces was more important than that around residences, and commuting behavior rather than exercise or food intake contributed more. Gender and age were the most important predictors among all predictors. Moreover, most predictors were nonlinearly related to BMI. Car and bus commuters had higher BMI. Commuting distance (<20 km) was positively related to BMI and the duration of active modes (<20 min) was negatively associated with BMI. Around workplaces, green space (<0.28 km2) and population density (10,000–28,000 people/km2) had negative associations with BMI. Land use diversity around workplaces (>0.5) had a U-shaped relationship with BMI and the threshold was 0.78, but it around residences (0.82–0.85) had a positive effect. A longer distance to the subway station from residences (<1500 m) was associated with lower BMI. Men had higher BMI and age (24–47 years) was positively correlated with BMI. Beyond the thresholds, these predictors had limited contributions to BMI. We concluded that prioritizing interventions in the built environment around workplaces and commuting behavior to reach effective thresholds is important to reduce obesity.

Time-Varying Spillover Effects Between Clean and Traditional Energy Under Multiple Uncertainty Risk: Evidence from the U.S. Market

The global energy landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation with the rapid development of clean energy and the continued significance of traditional energy creating a complex dynamic relationship. This study employs the TVP-QVAR-DY model to systematically examine the dynamic spillover effects between clean and traditional energy markets in the United States, focusing on the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR). The findings reveal (1) significant time-varying spillover effects between the two markets, with total spillover effects ranging from 30% to 50%, intensifying during extreme events; (2) increases in EPU and GPR exacerbate uncertainty in energy markets, particularly in the traditional energy sector, with spillover effects from crude oil to natural gas reaching 23.60% and vice versa at 24.30%; and (3) in the short term, the clean energy market is influenced by traditional energy, with spillover effects from oil to clean energy at 5.10%, while in the medium to long term it gradually becomes independent and inversely affects the traditional energy market, contributing 2.94% to oil spillovers. The results indicate that as the global energy transition deepens, the clean energy market is shifting from a risk receiver to a risk contributor. Based on these findings, the study proposes policy recommendations including accelerating energy structure transition, managing macroeconomic uncertainty risks, coordinating domestic and international energy markets, and leveraging market mechanisms.

The importance of arterial stiffness in pediatric patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus: What's new?

Youths with type 1 diabetes (T1D) exhibits higher levels of pulse wave velocity (PWV) compared to healthy controls. Higher PWV in T1D subjects is associated with increased hazard of progression in albuminuria, decline in eGFR, cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality. In the recently published work by Georeli et al., increased PWV was associated with poor glycemic control as expressed by time-in-range (TIR) < 50 % in T1D children, adolescents and young adults. This finding is of great interest, since it is well known that glycemic control, as measured by TIR, is an important contributor of CV risk. The duration of TIR < 50 % is not reported by the authors, but is of importance, knowing that CGM provide data for the last 3–6 months, depending on the CGM model. In conclusion, PWV looks promising for risk stratification in T1D, but its exact role in T1D still remains to be fully explored.

Source-risk and uncertainty assessment of trace metals in surface sediments of a human-dominated seaward catchment in eastern China

Current total concentration-based methods for source attribution and risk assessment often overestimate metal risks, thereby impeding the formulation of effective risk management strategies. This study aims to develop a framework for source-specific risk assessment based on metal bioavailability in surface river sediments from a human-dominated seaward catchment in eastern China. Metal bioavailability was quantified using chemical fractionation results, and source apportionment was conducted using the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Risk assessment integrated these findings using two indices: the Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI) and the Mean Probable Effect Concentration Quotient (mPEC-Q), with uncertainty addressed via Monte Carlo simulations. Results indicated that average total concentrations of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, Hg, Cd, and As exceeded their respective background levels by 1.63 to 15.00 times. The residual fraction constituted the majority, accounting for 53.84 % to 77.79 % of total concentrations, suggesting significant natural origins. However, source apportionment revealed a predominant contribution from anthropogenic activities, including industrial smelting, agricultural practices, and atmospheric deposition. The contributions were found to vary between 5.35 % and 40.03 % when the total concentration was adjusted to bioavailable content. Total concentration-based PERI/mPEC-Q assessments indicated high/moderate risk levels, decreasing to considerable/low risk levels with bioavailability adjustment. Hg and Cd were identified as priority metals. Further incorporating source appointment parameters into the risk assessment, industrial smelting was identified as the primary contributor, accounting for 66.06 % of total risk by total concentration and 65.63 % by bioavailability. This underscores the role of bioavailability in mitigating risk overestimation. Monte Carlo simulations validated industrial smelting as a major risk contributor. This study emphasizes the importance of considering bioavailability in the source-risk assessment of sediment-metals, crucial for targeted risk management in urbanized catchment areas.

Arsenic-contaminated groundwater of the Western Banat (Pannonian basin): Hydrogeochemical appraisal, pollution source apportionment, and Monte Carlo simulation of source-specific health risks.

Due to rapid urbanization and industrial growth, groundwater globally is continuously deteriorating, posing significant health risks to humans. This study employed a comprehensive methodology to analyze groundwater in the Western Banat Plain (Serbia). Using Piper and Gibbs plots, hydrogeochemistry was assessed, while the entropy-weighted water quality index (EWQI) was used to evaluate groundwater quality. Pollution sources were identified using positive matrix factorization (PMF) accompanied by Pearson correlation and hierarchical cluster analysis, while Monte Carlo simulation assessed health risks associated with groundwater consumption. Results showed that groundwater, mainly Ca-Mg-HCO3 type, is mostly suitable for drinking. Geogenic pollution, agricultural activities, and sewage were major pollution sources. Consumption of contaminated groundwater poses serious non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks. Additionally, arsenic from geogenic source was found to be the main health risks contributor, considering its worryingly elevated concentration, ranging up to 364 μg/L. These findings will be valuable for decision-makers and researchers in managing groundwater vulnerability. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Groundwater is severely contaminated with As in the northern part of the study area. The predominant hydrochemical type of groundwater in the area is Ca-Mg-HCO3. The PMF method apportioned three groundwater pollution sources. Monte Carlo identified rock dissolution as the primary health risk contributor. Health risks and mortality in the study area are positively correlated.

Cross-country risk spillovers of ESG stock indices: Dynamic patterns and the role of climate transition risks

The increasing concerns about climate change have led to a wide range of climate risks across capital markets. This paper uses ESG stock indices in six advanced economies to investigate the patterns of cross-country risk spillovers and then explores the determinants of the dynamic relationships across these indices. This paper also introduces three indexes of climate transition risks to investigate their dynamic relationship with the cross-country risk spillovers. The results show that ESG indices in European markets, such as Germany and France, are the main risk contributors, whereas the Japanese and Canadian markets are net risk receivers. We also find that the cross-country risk spillovers of ESG stock indices are sensitive to climate transition risk, with technology transition risk showing the strongest impact. Moreover, the cross-country risk spillovers are very sensitive to various types of global or major national climate actions and major extreme shocks to the financial markets.

Lycopene inhibits pyroptosis of endothelial progenitor cells induced by ox-LDL through the AMPK/mTOR/NLRP3 pathway.

The malfunction of endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) due to ox-LDL is a risk contributor for arteriosclerotic disease. Meanwhile, lycopene possesses anti-inflammatory and antioxidative qualities. This investigation aimed to determine if lycopene can protect EPCs from ox-LDL-induced damage and to elucidate the underlying mechanism. The effects of lycopene on the survival, migration, and tube-forming capacity of EPCs were determined via in vitro assays. Expression of proteins related to pyroptosis and cellular proteins related to AMPK/mTOR/NLRP3 signaling was determined by western blot/flow cytometry. Our results demonstrated that lycopene treatment significantly enhanced proliferation, tube formation, and migration of EPCs stimulated by ox-LDL. Additionally, lycopene was found to suppress pyroptosis in ox-LDL-induced EPCs through the activation of AMPK, which led to the inhibition of mTOR phosphorylation and subsequent downregulation of the downstream NLRP3 inflammasome. In summary, our study suggests that lycopene mitigates ox-LDL-induced dysfunction in EPCs and inhibits pyroptosis via AMPK/mTOR/NLRP3 signaling. Our study suggests that lycopene may act as promising therapies for preventing atherosclerosis.

Risk spillover mechanism among commercial banks and FinTech institutions throughout public health emergencies

While FinTech has contributed to the improvement of efficiency and cost reduction for commercial banks, it has also brought about risks for them. Especially during the outbreak of major public emergencies, the degree of risk spillover among financial institutions increased significantly. In this paper, we constructed a high-dimensional risk spillover network using the elastic net shrinkage technique to investigate the impact of public health emergencies on the risk spillovers between FinTech institutions and commercial banks. The total spillover index was utilized to access the overall coupling between FinTech institutions and commercial banks. Furthermore, we employed the sectoral spillover index and institutional centrality index to examine the spillover intensity across different sectors and institutions. Additionally, we analyzed the changes in the risk spillover network structure and institutional risk role during emergencies, aiming to uncover the impact mechanism of public health emergencies on risk spillovers. The results reveal that (1) public health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have intensified the industry correlation between the FinTech and banking sectors, and the primary risks of the system have shifted from intraindustry risks to interindustry risks. (2) Public health emergencies have changed the risk transmission roles of FinTechs and banks. FinTechs transitioned from being risk recipients to risk contributors, while banks shifted from being risk contributors to risk recipients. (3) FinTechs play a crucial role in facilitating indirect risk transmission within the system, acting as influential adjacent institutions that bridge the gap between critical institutions. (4) Compared with large commercial banks, small and medium-sized banks are more sensitive to FinTech risks. This study provides supporting evidence for regulatory agencies to enhance risk management in financial innovation during public health emergencies and in the post-pandemic era.

Causal effects of gut microbiota on chalazion: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

To investigate the causal relationship between gut microbiota (GM) and chalazion through Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. GM-related genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were obtained from the International Consortium MiBioGen. Genetic data for chalazion were sourced from the MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit (IEU) Open GWAS database. Five MR methods, including inverse variance weighted (IVW), were employed to estimate causal relationships. Cochran's Q test was used to detect heterogeneity, the MR-Egger intercept test and MR-PRESSO regression were utilized to detect horizontal pleiotropy, and the leave-one-out method was employed to validate data stability. We identified 1,509 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across 119 genera as instrumental variables (IVs) (p < 1 × 10-5). According to the inverse variance weighted (IVW) estimate, the Family XIII AD3011 group (OR = 1.0018, 95% CI 1.0002-1.0035, p = 0.030) and Catenibacterium (OR = 1.0013, 95% CI 1.0002-1.0025, p = 0.022) were potentially associated with increased risk of chalazion. Conversely, Veillonella (OR = 0.9986, 95% CI 0.9974-0.9999, p = 0.036) appeared to provide protection against chalazion. There was no evidence of heterogeneity or pleiotropy. This study uncovered the causal relationship between GM and chalazion, pinpointing Catenibacterium and Family XIII AD3011 group as potential risk contributors, while highlighting Veillonella as a protective factor. In-depth investigation into the potential mechanisms of specific bacteria in chalazion was essential for providing novel therapeutic and preventive strategies in the future.

Spatiotemporal variations and risk assessment of estrogens in the water of the southern Bohai Sea: A comprehensive investigation spanning three years

The ubiquitous and adverse effects of estrogens have aroused global concerns. Natural and synthetic estrogens in 255 water samples from the southern Bohai Sea were analyzed over three years. Total estrogen concentrations were 11.0–268 ng/L in river water and 1.98–99.7 ng/L in seawater, with bisphenol A (BPA) and 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2) being the predominant estrogens, respectively. Estrogen showed the highest concentrations in summer 2018, followed by spring 2021 and spring 2019, which was consistent with the higher estrogen flux from rivers during summer. Higher estrogen concentrations in 2021 than in 2019 were driven by the higher level of BPA, an additive used in personal protective equipment. Estrogen exhibited higher concentrations in the southern coast of the Yellow River Delta and the northeastern coast of Laizhou bay due to the riverine input and aquaculture. Estrogens could disturb the normal endocrine activities of organisms and edict high ecological risks (90th simulated RQT > 1.0) to aquatic organisms, especially to fish. EE2 was the main contributor of estrogenic potency and ecological risk, which requires special concern. This is the first comprehensive study of estrogen spatiotemporal variations and risks in the Bohai Sea, providing insights into the environmental behavior of estrogens in coastal regions.

The influence of assistive technologies on experiences of risk among older adults with age-related vision loss (ARVL).

Living with risk is a salient part of everyday living and although risk affects everyone, older adults are often regarded as a high-risk group, particularly older adults who are aging with a disability, such as vision loss. A prominent focus within low vision rehabilitation is the provision, and training, of older adults in the use of low vision assistive devices as a strategy to manage risks in both the home and community environment. This study aimed to unpack the influence of assistive technologies on experiences of risk among eleven older adults (aged 65+) with age-related vision loss. This critical ethnographic study used home tours, the go-along method, and a semi-structured in-depth interview. The study identified five prevailing themes including: 1) Moving away from the individualization of risk; 2) The cost of assistive technologies as a risk contributor; 3) Practicing 'responsible living'; Technology as an adaptive strategy to risk taking; 4) Resisting the label of 'at risk'; The influence of technology on self-identity; and 5) Technology as a substitution versus supplement for social connectedness. The study findings highlight the importance of moving beyond a technico-scientific perspective of risk, in which risk is framed as an objective phenomenon located in older adults' bodies, and instead framing risk within a broader sociocultural perspective which moves our attention to those contextual or environmental factors that shape experiences of risk for older adults with vision loss.

Severity and frequency of menopausal hot flash symptoms are not associated with arterial stiffness in females

Background: Females who experience menopausal hot flashes ([MHF]; episodes of sudden warmth and sweating) have greater risk of developing hypertension than females without MHF. MHF symptom severity and frequency are positively associated with hypertension. Considering that augmented arterial stiffness contributes to hypertension, this work aimed to investigate the relations between MHF severity and frequency with arterial stiffness. We hypothesized that females with moderate to severe MHF symptoms would exhibit greater arterial stiffness compared to females without MHF symptoms. Further, we hypothesized that there would be a positive relation between MHF frequency and arterial stiffness. Methods: Twenty-five females (51±5 [SD] years) with no history of hypertension or cardiovascular disease participated. The Menopausal Rating Scale was used to categorize participants by symptom severity (None MHF: n=7, Mild MHF: n=9, Moderate/Severe MHF: n=9). Participants self-reported MHF frequency over three consecutive days in real time using a hot flash diary (4±5 MHF/day, Range: 0-16). After 15 minutes of supine rest, brachial cuff blood pressures (sphygmomanometer) and heart rate (electrocardiogram) were recorded. Arterial stiffness was measured as pulse wave velocity ([PWV]; SphygmoCor®). PWV was measured using a carotid tonometer simultaneously with a leg cuff to capture blood pressure waveforms at the carotid and femoral sites. Aortic systolic pressure, aortic diastolic pressure, and augmentation index (AIx) were measured via pulse wave analysis ([PWA]; SphygmoCor®) using a brachial cuff. Data were analyzed using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Spearman Rho (ρ). Results: Age, body mass index, resting mean blood pressure, and resting heart rate were not different among MHF severity groups (P&gt;0.05 for all). PWV was not different among severity groups (None: 6.2±0.67 vs. Mild: 6.4±1.0 vs. Moderate/Severe: 6.6±1.0 cm/s, P=0.72). MHF frequency did not correlate with PWV (P=0.42). Aortic systolic pressure (None: 110±6 vs. Mild: 114±5 vs. Moderate/Severe: 112±11 mmHg, P=0.66), aortic diastolic pressure (None: 76±9 vs. Mild: 77±6 vs. Moderate/Severe: 76±10 mmHg, P=0.93), and AIx (None: 31.9±9.0 vs. Mild: 38.7±11.1 vs. Moderate/Severe: 30.4±7.4 %, P=0.16) were not different among severity groups. MHF frequency did not correlate with metrics of PWA (Systolic: P=0.61; Diastolic: P=0.89, AIx: P=0.42). Conclusion: Arterial stiffness and metrics of PWA were not different among females with varying MHF symptom severity. MHF frequency was also not correlated with aortic stiffness and metrics of PWA. Other mechanisms of vascular function (e.g., autonomic function, vasodilation, and/or vasoconstriction) should be investigated to determine potential contributors of hypertension risk in females with MHF. AHA 898649, NIH T32 DK07352, K01 HL148144, NCATS UL1 TR002377. This is the full abstract presented at the American Physiology Summit 2024 meeting and is only available in HTML format. There are no additional versions or additional content available for this abstract. Physiology was not involved in the peer review process.

Exploring the asymmetric influence of economic policy uncertainty on the nonlinear relationship between exchange rate and carbon prices in China

Our objective is to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the risk spillover effect between exchange rates and carbon prices. First, we employ the time-varying parametric vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) method to assess the dynamic nonlinear risk spillover effect between four exchange rates and China's carbon price for the period from September 2, 2013, to April 29, 2022. Our findings reveal a significant time-varying spillover effect between exchange rates and carbon prices. Among them, carbon prices and the EUR/CNY exchange rate predominantly act as risk contributors, and a pronounced correlation is observed among various exchange rates. Furthermore, the magnitude of risk spillover and interdependence intensifies significantly in response to major events. Second, we employ quantile-to-quantile regression (QQR) to examine the impact of EPU on risk spillover. Our results indicate that the influence of EPU on risk spillover exhibits is characterized by marked asymmetry and heterogeneity. At high levels of EPU, EPU has a substantial positive impact on risk spillover. However, when the risk spillover is already elevated, the effect of EPU tends to diminish. Based on these findings, we propose several policy recommendations, including prudent treatment of exchange rate adjustments, fostering stability in carbon prices, and the enactment of robust economic policies.

A methodology for estimating SARS-CoV-2 importation risk by air travel into Canada between July and November 2021.

Estimating rates of disease importation by travellers is a key activity to assess both the risk to a country from an infectious disease emerging elsewhere in the world and the effectiveness of border measures. We describe a model used to estimate the number of travellers infected with SARS-CoV-2 into Canadian airports in 2021, and assess the impact of pre-departure testing requirements on importation risk. A mathematical model estimated the number of essential and non-essential air travellers infected with SARS-CoV-2, with the latter requiring a negative pre-departure test result. The number of travellers arriving infected (i.e. imported cases) depended on air travel volumes, SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk in the departure country, prior infection or vaccine acquired immunity, and, for non-essential travellers, screening from pre-departure molecular testing. Importation risk was estimated weekly from July to November 2021 as the number of imported cases and percent positivity (PP; i.e. imported cases normalised by travel volume). The impact of pre-departure testing was assessed by comparing three scenarios: baseline (pre-departure testing of all non-essential travellers; most probable importation risk given the pre-departure testing requirements), counterfactual scenario 1 (no pre-departure testing of fully vaccinated non-essential travellers), and counterfactual scenario 2 (no pre-departure testing of non-essential travellers). In the baseline scenario, weekly imported cases and PP varied over time, ranging from 145 to 539 cases and 0.15 to 0.28%, respectively. Most cases arrived from the USA, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and France. While modelling suggested that essential travellers had a higher weekly PP (0.37 - 0.65%) than non-essential travellers (0.12 - 0.24%), they contributed fewer weekly cases (62 - 154) than non-essential travellers (84 - 398 per week) given their lower travel volume. Pre-departure testing was estimated to reduce imported cases by one third (counterfactual scenario 1) to one half (counterfactual scenario 2). The model results highlighted the weekly variation in importation by traveller group (e.g., reason for travel and country of departure) and enabled a framework for measuring the impact of pre-departure testing requirements. Quantifying the contributors of importation risk through mathematical simulation can support the design of appropriate public health policy on border measures.

Halogenated aromatic pollutants in routine animal-derived food of south China: Occurrence, sources, and dietary intake risks

Halogenated aromatic pollutants (HAPs) including polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PBDD/Fs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) exhibit diverse toxicities and bio-accumulation in animals, thereby imposing risks on human via animal-derived food (ADF) consumption. Here we examined these HAPs in routine ADFs from South China and observed that PBDEs and PCBs showed statistically higher concentrations than PCDD/Fs and PBDD/Fs. PCDD/Fs and PCBs in these ADFs were mainly from the polluted feed and habitat of animals, except PCDD/Fs in egg, which additionally underwent selective biotransformation/progeny transfer after the maternal intake of PCDD/F-polluted stuff. PBDEs and PBDD/Fs were mostly derived from the extensive use of deca-BDE and their polluted environments. Significant interspecific differences were mainly observed for DL-PCBs and partly for PBDD/Fs and PBDEs, which might be caused by their distinct transferability/biodegradability in animals and the different living habit and habitat of animals. The dietary intake doses (DIDs) of these HAPs via ADF consumption were all highest for toddlers, then teenagers and adults. Milk, egg, and fish contributed most to the DIDs and risks for toddlers and teenagers, which results of several cities exceeded the recommended thresholds and illustrated noteworthy risks. Pork, fish, and egg were the top three risk contributors for adults, which carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks were both acceptable. Notably, PBDD/Fs showed the lowest concentrations but highest contributions to the total risks of these HAPs, thereby meriting continuous attention.

Resveratrol and vascular health: evidence from clinical studies and mechanisms of actions related to its metabolites produced by gut microbiota.

Cardiovascular diseases are among the leading causes of mortality worldwide, with dietary factors being the main risk contributors. Diets rich in bioactive compounds, such as (poly)phenols, have been shown to potentially exert positive effects on vascular health. Among them, resveratrol has gained particular attention due to its potential antioxidant and anti-inflammatory action. Nevertheless, the results in humans are conflicting possibly due to interindividual different responses. The gut microbiota, a complex microbial community that inhabits the gastrointestinal tract, has been called out as potentially responsible for modulating the biological activities of phenolic metabolites in humans. The present review aims to summarize the main findings from clinical trials on the effects of resveratrol interventions on endothelial and vascular outcomes and review potential mechanisms interesting the role of gut microbiota on the metabolism of this molecule and its cardioprotective metabolites. The findings from randomized controlled trials show contrasting results on the effects of resveratrol supplementation and vascular biomarkers without dose-dependent effect. In particular, studies in which resveratrol was integrated using food sources, i.e., red wine, reported significant effects although the resveratrol content was, on average, much lower compared to tablet supplementation, while other studies with often extreme resveratrol supplementation resulted in null findings. The results from experimental studies suggest that resveratrol exerts cardioprotective effects through the modulation of various antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-hypertensive pathways, and microbiota composition. Recent studies on resveratrol-derived metabolites, such as piceatannol, have demonstrated its effects on biomarkers of vascular health. Moreover, resveratrol itself has been shown to improve the gut microbiota composition toward an anti-inflammatory profile. Considering the contrasting findings from clinical studies, future research exploring the bidirectional link between resveratrol metabolism and gut microbiota as well as the mediating effect of gut microbiota in resveratrol effect on cardiovascular health is warranted.

Assessment of occurrence, partitioning and ecological risk for 144 steroid hormones in Taihu Lake using UPLC-MS/MS with machine learning model

Steroid hormones (SHs) have attracted mounting attention due to their endocrine-disrupting effects on humans and aquatic organisms. However, the lack of analytical methods and toxicity data for a large number of SHs has limited the effective management of SH contamination in the water-sediment systems. In this study, we developed a highly sensitive analytical method for the simultaneous quantification of 144 SHs to investigate their occurrence, spatial distribution and partitioning in the water and sediment in Taihu Lake. The results showed that the total concentrations of SHs in water and sediment were 366.88–998.23 ng/L (mean: 612.84 ng/L) and 17.46–150.20 ng/g (mean: 63.41 ng/g), respectively. The spatial distribution of SHs in Taihu Lake might be simultaneously influenced by the pollution sources, lake hydrodynamics, and sediment properties. The sediment-water partitioning result implied that 28 SHs were in dynamic equilibrium at the water-water interface. In addition, 22 and 12 SHs tended to spread to water and settle into sediment, respectively. To assess the ecological risk of all SHs, a robust random forest model (R2 = 0.801) was developed to predict the acute toxicity of SHs for which toxicity data were not available from publications. Risk assessment showed that SHs posed a high ecological risk throughout Taihu Lake, with the highest risk in the northwestern areas. Estrone, 17β-estradiol and 17α-ethynylestradiol were the dominant risk contributors and were therefore recommended as the priority SHs in Taihu Lake. This work provided a valuable dataset for Taihu Lake, which would help to provide guidance and suggestions for future studies and be useful for the government to develop the mitigation and management measures.

Causal relationship between gut microbiota and risk of esophageal cancer: evidence from Mendelian randomization study.

The causative implications remain ambiguous. Consequently, this study aims to evaluate the putative causal relationship between gut microbiota and Esophageal cancer (EC). The genome-wide association study (GWAS) pertaining to the microbiome, derived from the MiBioGen consortium-which consolidates 18,340 samples across 24 population-based cohorts-was utilized as the exposure dataset. Employing the GWAS summary statistics specific to EC patients sourced from the GWAS Catalog and leveraging the two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) methodology, the principal analytical method applied was the inverse variance weighted (IVW) technique. Cochran's Q statistic was utilized to discern heterogeneity inherent in the data set. Subsequently, a reverse MR analysis was executed. Findings derived from the IVW technique elucidated that the Family Porphyromonadaceae (P = 0.048) and Genus Candidatus Soleaferrea (P = 0.048) function as deterrents against EC development. In contrast, the Genus Catenibacterium (P = 0.044), Genus Eubacterium coprostanoligenes group (P = 0.038), Genus Marvinbryantia (P = 0.049), Genus Ruminococcaceae UCG010 (P = 0.034), Genus Ruminococcus1 (P = 0.047), and Genus Sutterella (P = 0.012) emerged as prospective risk contributors for EC. To assess reverse causal effect, we used EC as the exposure and the gut microbiota as the outcome, and this analysis revealed associations between EC and seven different types of gut microbiota. The robustness of the MR findings was substantiated through comprehensive heterogeneity and pleiotropy evaluations. This research identified certain microbial taxa as either protective or detrimental elements for EC, potentially offering valuable biomarkers for asymptomatic diagnosis and prospective therapeutic interventions for EC.

Analysis of tail risk contagion among industry sectors in the Chinese stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted substantial impacts on global financial markets and the economy. This study investigates the impact of two pandemic outbreaks in China on industry sectors in its stock market. The Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model is applied to compute tail risks across 16 selected industry sectors. In Addition, risk correlation networks are constructed to illustrate the risk correlations among industry sectors during different stages of the two outbreaks. Furthermore, risk contagion networks are built based on the Granger causality test to examine the similarities and differences in the contagion mechanisms between the two outbreaks. The findings of this study show that (i) the two pandemic outbreaks have resulted in tail risks across most industries in the Chinese stock market. (ii) The risk correlation network exhibited increased compactness during both outbreaks, with the impact of the second outbreak on the network being less severe than that of the first outbreak. (iii) During the first outbreak, the financial industry was the primary source of risk output. In contrast, during the second outbreak, the localized nature of the outbreak in Shanghai resulted in the industries closely linked to the city's economy and trade becoming the most significant risk contributors. These empirical findings have practical implications for both researchers and decision-makers, offering insight into the dynamics of risk contagion among stock market industries during major public emergencies.

Bioaccessibility-corrected probabilistic health risk assessment of dietary metal(loid) exposure in six major food groups in children from Northwest China

Dietary exposure to heavy metals and metalloids [metal(loid)s] deserves increased attention; however, there is a lack of a comprehensive understanding of the risks of dietary exposure from multi-type food intake and multi-metal(loid) exposure using a bioaccessibility-corrected method. Here, we determined the concentration and bioaccessibility of six toxic metal(loid)s in six major food groups in an industrial city with intensive smelting activity. By incorporating children’s dietary patterns, the probability distribution of health risks from dietary metal(loid)s exposure was assessed. Marked differences were observed in the dietary exposure characteristics within metal(loid)s and major food groups. Cereal and vegetables were the major food groups local children intake. Cereals, meat, beans, and aquatic products had the highest concentrations of Cu and Cd, Pb and Cr, Ni, and As, respectively. Generally, meat, eggs, and aquatic products exhibited higher bioaccessibility than cereals, beans, and vegetables. The bioaccessibility of metal(loid)s decreased in the following order: Pb > Cr > Cu > Ni > As > Cd. For non-carcinogenic risks, the average hazard index was 7.3, with 99.6% exceeding acceptable levels. Arsenic was the dominant risk element and aquatic product was the main risk source. The aggregated carcinogenic risk was 3.4 × 10–3, with Cr the major risk contributor and cereals and meat the dominant food sources. The findings demonstrated that (1) the metal(loid) dietary exposure risk of children from areas with intensive smelting activities should be taken seriously, and (2) it is necessary to identify the specific food category and metal(loid) based on a comprehensive analysis of the metal(loid) concentration and bioaccessibility, and dietary habits of the population to effectively reduce risk.