The formulation of active pharmaceutical ingredients involves discovering stable crystal packing arrangements or polymorphs, each of which has distinct pharmaceutically relevant properties. Traditional experimental screening techniques utilizing various conditions are commonly supplemented with in silico crystal structure prediction (CSP) to inform the crystallization process and mitigate risk. Predictions are often based on advanced classical force fields or quantum mechanical calculations that model the crystal potential energy landscape but do not fully incorporate temperature, pressure, or solution conditions during the search procedure. This study proposes an innovative alchemical path that utilizes an advanced polarizable atomic multipole force field to predict crystal structures based on direct sampling of the NPT ensemble. The use of alchemical (i.e., nonphysical) intermediates, a novel Monte Carlo barostat, and an orthogonal space tempering bias combine to enhance the sampling efficiency of the deposition/sublimation phase transition. The proposed algorithm was applied to 2-((4-(2-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)ethyl)phenyl)amino)benzoic acid (Cambridge Crystallography Database Centre ID: XAFPAY) as a case study to showcase the algorithm. Each experimentally determined polymorph with one molecule in the asymmetric unit was successfully reproduced via approximately 1000 short 1 ns simulations per space group where each simulation was initiated from random rigid body coordinates and unit cell parameters. Utilizing two threads of a recent Intel CPU (a Xeon Gold 6330 CPU at 2.00 GHz), 1 ns of sampling using the polarizable AMOEBA force field can be acquired in 4 h (equating to more than 300 ns/day using all 112 threads/56 cores of a dual CPU node) within the Force Field X software (https://ffx.biochem.uiowa.edu). These results demonstrate a step forward in the rigorous use of the NPT ensemble during the CSP search process and open the door to future algorithms that incorporate solution conditions using continuum solvation methods.
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