Continuous-time Markov Branching Process Research Articles

On Estimation of the Convergence Rate to Invariant Measures in Markov Branching Processes with Possibly Infinite Variance and Allowing Immigration

The paper discusses the continuous-time Markov Branching Process allowing Immigration. We are considering a critical case for which the second moment of offspring law and the first moment of immigration law are possibly infinite. Assuming that the nonlinear parts of the appropriate generating functions are regularly varying in the sense of Karamata, we prove theorems on convergence of transition functions of the process to invariant measures. We deduce the speed rate of these convergence providing that slowly varying factors are with remainder

On asymptotic structure of continuous-time Markov branching processes allowing immigration without higher-order moments

On asymptotic structure of continuous-time Markov branching processes allowing immigration without higher-order moments

Diffusion Approximation of Branching Processes in Semi-Markov Environment

We consider continuous-time Markov branching processes in semi-Markov random environment and obtain diffusion approximation results for the near critical case. The problem of semi-Markov environment, presented here, is new and more interesting than the Markov case, since it includes many particular interesting cases: Markov, renewal, etc. The particular case of the Markov random environment of continuous-time branching process diffusion approximation results are obtained.

Heavy-tailed branching random walks on multidimensional lattices. A moment approach

We study a continuous-time branching random walk (BRW) on the lattice ℤd, d ∈ ℕ, with a single source of branching, that is the lattice point where the birth and death of particles can occur. The random walk is assumed to be spatially homogeneous, symmetric and irreducible but, in contrast to the majority of previous investigations, the random walk transition intensities a(x, y) decrease as |y − x|−(d+α) for |y − x| → ∞, where α ∈ (0, 2), that leads to an infinite variance of the random walk jumps. The mechanism of the birth and death of particles at the source is governed by a continuous-time Markov branching process. The source intensity is characterized by a certain parameter β. We calculate the long-time asymptotic behaviour for all integer moments for the number of particles at each lattice point and for the total population size. With respect to the parameter β, a non-trivial critical point βc > 0 is found for every d ≥ 1. In particular, if β > βc the evolutionary operator generated a behaviour of the first moment for the number of particles has a positive eigenvalue. The existence of a positive eigenvalue yields an exponential growth in t of the particle numbers in the case β > βc called supercritical. Classification of the BRW treated as subcritical (β < βc) or critical (β = βc) for the heavy-tailed random walk jumps is more complicated than for a random walk with a finite variance of jumps. We study the asymptotic behaviour of all integer moments of a number of particles at any point y ∈ ℤd and of the particle population on ℤd according to the ratio d/α.

ESTIpop: a computational tool to simulate and estimate parameters for continuous-time Markov branching processes.

ESTIpop is an R package designed to simulate and estimate parameters for continuous-time Markov branching processes with constant or time-dependent rates, a common model for asexually reproducing cell populations. Analytical approaches to parameter estimation quickly become intractable in complex branching processes. In ESTIpop, parameter estimation is based on a likelihood function with respect to a time series of cell counts, approximated by the Central Limit Theorem for multitype branching processes. Additionally, simulation in ESTIpop via approximation can be performed many times faster than exact simulation methods with similar results. ESTIpop is available as an R package on Github (https://github.com/michorlab/estipop). Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Structure of the Particle Population for a Branching Random Walk with a Critical Reproduction Law

We consider a continuous-time symmetric branching random walk on the d-dimensional lattice, d ≥ 1, and assume that at the initial moment there is one particle at every lattice point. Moreover, we assume that the underlying random walk has a finite variance of jumps and the reproduction law is described by a continuous-time Markov branching process (a continuous-time analog of a Bienamye-Galton-Watson process) at every lattice point. We study the structure of the particle subpopulation generated by the initial particle situated at a lattice point x. We replay why vanishing of the majority of subpopulations does not affect the convergence to the steady state and leads to clusterization for lattice dimensions d = 1 and d = 2.

Geometric branching reproduction Markov processes

We present a model of a continuous-time Markov branching process with the infinitesimal generating function defined by the geometric probability distribution. It is proved that the solution of the backward Kolmogorov equation is expressed by the composition of special functions – Wright function in the subcritical case and Lambert-W function in the critical case. We found the explicit form of conditional limit distribution in the subcritical branching reproduction. In the critical case, the extinction probability and probability mass function are expressed as a series containing Bell polynomial, Stirling numbers, and Lah numbers.

Diffusion approximation of near critical branching processes in fixed and random environment

We consider Bienaymé-Galton-Watson and continuous-time Markov branching processes and prove diffusion approximation results in the near critical case, in fixed and random environment. In one hand, in the fixed environment case, we give new proofs and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for diffusion approximation to get hold of Feller-Jiřina and Jagers theorems. In the other hand, we propose a continuous-time Markov branching process with random environments and obtain diffusion approximation results. An averaging result is also presented. Proofs here are new, where weak convergence in the Skorohod space is proved via singular perturbation technique for convergence of generators and tightness of the distributions of the considered families of stochastic processes.

Stochastic equations and limit results for some two-type branching models

A class of binary state, asymmetric, continuous time Markov branching processes are analyzed under supercritical conditions. Stochastic equations are provided, and limit results for the long time asymptotics as well as for the behavior of the model under rescaling are reviewed. Extensions are presented for model variations, such as population size dependence, with the purpose of promoting further use of these models for applications.

Genealogical constructions and asymptotics for continuous-time Markov and continuous-state branching processes

AbstractGenealogical constructions of population processes provide models which simultaneously record the forward-in-time evolution of the population size (and distribution of locations and types for models that include them) and the backward-in-time genealogies of the individuals in the population at each timet. A genealogical construction for continuous-time Markov branching processes from Kurtz and Rodrigues (2011) is described and exploited to give the normalized limit in the supercritical case. A Seneta‒Heyde norming is identified as a solution of an ordinary differential equation. The analogous results are given for continuous-state branching processes, including proofs of the normalized limits of Grey (1974) in both the supercritical and critical/subcritical cases.

Modeling a trait-dependent diversification process coupled with molecular evolution on a random species tree

Understanding the evolution of binary traits, which affects the birth and survival of species and also the rate of molecular evolution, remains challenging. In this work, we present a probabilistic modeling framework for binary trait, random species trees, in which the number of species and their traits are represented by an asymmetric, two-type, continuous time Markov branching process. The model involves a number of different parameters describing both character and molecular evolution on the so-called ‘reduced’ tree, consisting of only extant species at the time of observation. We expand our model by considering the impact of binary traits on dN/dS, the normalized ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions. We also develop mechanisms which enable us to understand the substitution rates on a phylogenetic tree with regards to the observed traits. The properties obtained from the model are illustrated with a phylogeny of outcrossing and selfing plant species, which allows us to investigate not only the branching tree rates, but also the molecular rates and the intensity of selection.

On the Limit Structure of Continuous-time Markov Branching Process

On the Limit Structure of Continuous-time Markov Branching Process

A synergetic approach to analysis of probabilistic and deterministic components of seasonal and long-term dynamics of European bank voles in the areal center

A comprehensive description and analysis of the probabilistic and deterministic components of the seasonal and long-term dynamics of the bank vole in the center of the range were carried out. It was noted that in the first half of the breeding season, the long-term total of the probabilities of implementation of the population numbers is described by an asymmetrical lognormal distribution, and the process of its formation is to the continuous time Markov branching process. In the second half, several homogeneous groups of probability distributions were distinguished that were separated from each another by the minimum points. It was found that the phenomenon described is a stochastic analog of the structurally stable Hopf bifurcation. It was revealed that the oscillations from the equilibrium state of a population that appear under the influence of external disturbances can be assimilated by it, becoming a source of improvement of the regulator mechanisms.

Upper Deviations for Split Times of Branching Processes

Upper deviation results are obtained for the split time of a supercritical continuous-time Markov branching process. More precisely, we establish the existence of logarithmic limits for the likelihood that the split times of the process are greater than an identified value and determine an expression for the limiting quantity. We also give an estimation for the lower deviation probability of the split times, which shows that the scaling is completely different from the upper deviations.

Upper Deviations for Split Times of Branching Processes

Upper deviation results are obtained for the split time of a supercritical continuous-time Markov branching process. More precisely, we establish the existence of logarithmic limits for the likelihood that the split times of the process are greater than an identified value and determine an expression for the limiting quantity. We also give an estimation for the lower deviation probability of the split times, which shows that the scaling is completely different from the upper deviations.

High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes

We use a multitype continuous time Markov branching process model to describe the dynamics of the spread of parasites of two types that can mutate into each other in a common host population. While most mathematical models for the virulence of infectious diseases focus on the interplay between the dynamics of host populations and the optimal characteristics for the success of the pathogen, our model focuses on how pathogen characteristics may change at the start of an epidemic, before the density of susceptible hosts decline. We envisage animal husbandry situations where hosts are at very high density and epidemics are curtailed before host densities are much reduced. The use of three pathogen characteristics: lethality, transmissibility and mutability allows us to investigate the interplay of these in relation to host density. We provide some numerical illustrations and discuss the effects of the size of the enclosure containing the host population on the encounter rate in our model that plays the key role in determining what pathogen type will eventually prevail. We also present a multistage extension of the model to situations where there are several populations and parasites can be transmitted from one of them to another. We conclude that animal husbandry situations with high stock densities will lead to very rapid increases in virulence, where virulent strains are either more transmissible or favoured by mutation. Further the process is affected by the nature of the farm enclosures.

Quasi- and pseudo-maximum likelihood estimators for discretely observed continuous-time Markov branching processes

This article deals with quasi- and pseudo-likelihood estimation for a class of continuous-time multi-type Markov branching processes observed at discrete points in time. “Conventional” and conditional estimation are discussed for both approaches. We compare their properties and identify situations where they lead to asymptotically equivalent estimators. Both approaches possess robustness properties, and coincide with maximum likelihood estimation in some cases. Quasi-likelihood functions involving only linear combinations of the data may be unable to estimate all model parameters. Remedial measures exist, including the resort either to non-linear functions of the data or to conditioning the moments on appropriate sigma-algebras. The method of pseudo-likelihood may also resolve this issue. We investigate the properties of these approaches in three examples: the pure birth process, the linear birth-and-death process, and a two-type process that generalizes the previous two examples. Simulations studies are conducted to evaluate performance in finite samples.

Extinction Times in Multitype Markov Branching Processes

In this paper, a distributional approximation to the time to extinction in a subcritical continuous-time Markov branching process is derived. A limit theorem for this distribution is established and the error in the approximation is quantified. The accuracy of the approximation is illustrated in an epidemiological example. Since Markov branching processes serve as approximations to nonlinear epidemic processes in the initial and final stages, our results can also be used to describe the time to extinction for such processes.

Extinction Times in Multitype Markov Branching Processes

In this paper, a distributional approximation to the time to extinction in a subcritical continuous-time Markov branching process is derived. A limit theorem for this distribution is established and the error in the approximation is quantified. The accuracy of the approximation is illustrated in an epidemiological example. Since Markov branching processes serve as approximations to nonlinear epidemic processes in the initial and final stages, our results can also be used to describe the time to extinction for such processes.

The asymptotic behaviour of the non-extinction probability of a bounded from below continuous time Markov critical branching process with infinite variance

Let μ ( t ) be the number of particles at time t of a continuous-time critical branching process. It is known that the probability of non-extinction of the process at time t Q ( t ) = P { μ ( t ) > 0 | μ (0) = 1} → 0 as t → ∞. Hence it follows that Q m 0 = P { μ ( t ) > 0 | μ (0) = m } ∼ mQ ( t ) → 0 for any m = 2,3, . . . Let for any integer m > r ≥ 1 In this paper, we prove that Q mr ( t ) ∼ ( m − r ) Q ( t ) as t → ∞ for any critical continuous-time Markov branching process. Earlier, this result was obtained for branching processes with finite variation of the number of particles.