Continuous Sample Of Working Lives Research Articles

Working More Years In Spain Has to Start from a Young Age: Lessons from the Labour Market Exit of People Aged from 50 to 65 in the Last Decade

Since 2013, retirement age in Spain has been rising slowly from 65 to an expected 67 in 2027 and, with it, the minimum number of years of National Insurance contributions from 35 to 38. This policy is justified by sustainability of the social security system since the number of older people is increasing faster than the number of contributors. However, the policy has been criticised for not taking into account the diversity of working lives. The labour market and social construction of work differ with occupations and with gender, thus creating pluralities of working lives. Hence, the ways of leaving the labour market should take this diversity into account. Since the present wholesale policy of equally postponing retirement age for everyone overlooks the actual state of retirements, the aim of this study is to ascertain who has retired earlier or later in the last decade, the causes of exits from the labour market, and the repercussions on the number of years of National Insurance contributions. Premature exits from the labour market of people aged between 50 and 65 during the decade from 2010 to 2020 are analysed using data from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL) taken from Spanish Social Security records. These are people who were born between 1945 and 1954. The results show that women work later than men, that people in Routine occupations tend to leave the labour market early, and that the number of years worked between the ages of 50 and 59 are a good predictor of prolongation of working life after the age of 60, although there are differences between the sexes.

Mortality and life expectancy trends in Spain by pension income level for male pensioners in the general regime retiring at the statutory age, 2005–2018

BackgroundResearch has generally found a significant inverse relationship in mortality risk across socioeconomic (SE) groups. This paper focuses on Spain, a country for which there continues to be very little evidence available concerning retirement pensioners. We draw on the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL) to investigate disparities in SE mortality among retired men aged 65 and above over the longest possible period covered by this data source: 2005–2018. We use the initial pension income (PI) level as our single indicator of the SE status of the retired population.MethodsThe mortality gradient by income is quantified in two ways: via an indicator referred to as “relative mortality”, and by estimating changes in total life expectancy (LE) by PI level at ages 65 and 75 over time. We show that, should the information provided by the relative mortality ratio not be completely clear, a second indicator needs to be introduced to give a broad picture of the true extent of inequality in mortality.ResultsThe first indicator reveals that, for the period covered and for all age groups, the differences in death rates across PI levels widens over time. At older age groups, these differences across PI levels diminish. The second indicator shows that disparities in LE at ages 65 and 75 between pensioners in the lowest and highest income groups are relatively small, although slightly higher than previously reported for Spain. This gap in LE widens over time, from 1.49 to 2.54 years and from 0.71 to 1.40 years respectively for pensioners aged 65 and 75. These differences are statistically significant.ConclusionsAlong with other behavioral and structural aspects, a combination of factors such as the design of the pension system, the universality and quality of the health system, and high levels of family support could explain why LE inequalities for retired Spanish men are relatively small. To establish the reasons for this increased inequality in LE, more research needs to be carried out. An analysis of all Spanish social security records instead of just a sample would provide us with more information.

Differences in Life Expectancy Between Self-Employed Workers and Paid Employees when Retirement Pensioners: Evidence from Spanish Social Security Records

The aim of this paper is to examine differences in life expectancy (LE) between self-employed (SE) and paid employee (PE) workers when they become retirement pensioners, looking at levels of pension income using administrative data from Spanish social security records. We draw on the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL) to quantify changes in total life expectancy at age 65 (LE65) among retired men over the longest possible period covered by this data source: 2005-2018. These changes are broken down by pension regime and initial pension income level for three periods. The literature presents mixed evidence, even for the same country-for Japan and Italy, for example-with some studies pointing to higher life expectancy for SE than for PE retirement pensioners while others argue the opposite. In Spain, LE65 is slightly higher for the SE than for PE workers when retirement pensioners. For 2005-2010, a gap in life expectancy of 0.23 years between SE and PE retirement pensioners is observed. This widens to 0.55 years for 2014-2018. A similar trend can be seen if pension income groups are considered. For 2005-2010, the gap in LE65 between pensioners in the lowest and highest income groups is 1.20 years. This widens over time and reaches 1.51 years for 2014-2018. Although these differences are relatively small, they are statistically significant. According to our research, the implications for policy on social security are evident: differences in life expectancy by socioeconomic status and pension regime should be taken into account for a variety of issues involving social security schemes. These include establishing the age of eligibility for retirement pensions and early access to benefits, computing the annuity factors used to determine initial retirement benefits and valuing the liabilities taken on for retirement pensioners.

Improving the Representativeness of a Simple Random Sample: An Optimization Model and Its Application to the Continuous Sample of Working Lives

This paper proposes an optimization model for selecting a larger subsample that improves the representativeness of a simple random sample previously obtained from a population larger than the population of interest. The problem formulation involves convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming (convex MINLP) and is, therefore, NP-hard. However, the solution is found by maximizing the size of the subsample taken from a stratified random sample with proportional allocation and restricting it to a p-value large enough to achieve a good fit to the population of interest using Pearson’s chi-square goodness-of-fit test. The paper also applies the model to the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL), which is a set of anonymized microdata containing information on individuals from Spanish Social Security records and the results prove that it is possible to obtain a larger subsample from the CSWL that (far) better represents the pensioner population for each of the waves analyzed.

The Deterioration of the Spanish Youth Labour Market (1985–2015): An Interdisciplinary Case Study

The Spanish labour market is notorious for its high unemployment rate and its exceptionally high youth unemployment rate, job insecurity, impermanence and underemployment. This article presents a systematic analysis of the Spanish labour market’s deterioration process, in particular focusing on the youth labour market. It combines historic reviews with statistical analyses of data from official sources, like the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL), through different econometric models. The procedure consists of three steps: (a) first, a historical estimation to facilitate the systematic selection of the statistics, in this case contracts taken from a large sample of the Spanish workforce over the period 1985–2015; (b) econometric modelling of relevant indicators, in this case the average annual income, daily working hours and average length of contract; and (c) an analysis of the identified trends and conjuncture regarding precarious work and gender inequality.

Differences in Life Expectancy Between Self-Employed Workers and Paid Employees When Retirement Pensioners: Evidence From Spanish Social Security Records

The aim of this paper is to examine differences in life expectancy (LE) between self-employed (SE) and paid employee (PE) workers when they become retirement pensioners, looking at levels of pension income using administrative data from Spanish social security records. We draw on the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL) to quantify changes in total life expectancy at ages 65 (LE65) and 75 (LE75) among retired men over the longest possible period covered by this data source: 2005–2018. These changes are broken down by pension regime and pension income level for three periods. Contrary to what has been observed in countries such as Italy, Finland and Japan, LE65 in Spain is slightly higher for the self-employed than for the paid employees when retirement pensioners. For 2005-2010, a gap in life expectancy of 0.23 years between SE and PE retirement pensioners is observed. This gap widens to 0.55 years for 2014–2018. A similar trend can be seen if pension income groups are considered. For 2005-2010, the gap in LE65 between pensioners in the lowest and the highest income groups is 1.20 years. This gap widens over time and reaches 1.51 years for 2014–2018. Although these differences are relatively small, they are statistically significant. According to our research the implications for policy on social security are evident: differences in life expectancy by socioeconomic status and pension regime should be taken into account for a variety of issues involving social security schemes, e.g. to establish the age of eligibility for retirement pensions and early access to benefits, to compute the annuity factors used to determine initial retirement benefits, and to value the liabilities taken on for retirement pensioners.

Mortality and life expectancy trends for male pensioners by pension income level

We draw on the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL) to investigate the differences in socioeconomic mortality among retired men aged 65 and above, over the longest possible period covered by this data source: 2005–2018. This paper deals with the case of Spain, since very little evidence concerning retirement pensioners is available for this country. The only indicator of socioeconomic status we use is the amount of the initial pension of the retired population. For 2005-2010 we find a gap in life expectancy of 1.49 years between pensioners in the highest and lowest income groups. This gap widens over time and reaches 2.58 years for the period 2015–2018. The increase in life expectancy inequality cannot be attributed to the pension system reforms carried out over the period 2011-2013, given that the system has become more redistributive and there has been a clear increase in real terms in the size of minimum pensions over recent years. The causes might be traced back to the decrease in public spending on health over the period 2009-2018 and the increased spending on private health, which would presumably be of more benefit to those retirees with bigger pensions.

The Tax Justice Network-Africa v Cabinet Secretary for National Treasury & 2 Others: A Big Win for Tax Justice Activism?

This paper develops an optimization model for selecting a large subsample that improves the representativeness of a simple random sample previously obtained from a population larger than the population of interest. The problem formulation involves convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming (convex MINLP) and is therefore NP-hard. However, the solution is found by maximizing the “constant of proportionality” – in other words, maximizing the size of the subsample taken from a stratified random sample with proportional allocation – and restricting it to a p-value high enough to achieve a good fit to the population of interest using Pearson’s chi-square goodness-of-fit test. The beauty of the model is that it gives the user the freedom to choose between a larger subsample with a poorer fit and a smaller subsample with a better fit. The paper also applies the model to a real case: The Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL), which is a set of anonymized microdata containing information on individuals from Spanish Social Security records. Several waves (2005-2017) are first examined without using the model and the conclusion is that they are not representative of the target population, which in this case is people receiving a pension income. The model is then applied and the results prove that it is possible to obtain a large dataset from the CSWL that (far) better represents the pensioner population for each of the waves analysed.

The continuous sample of working lives: improving its representativeness

This paper studies the representativeness of the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL), a set of anonymized microdata containing information on individuals from Spanish Social Security records. We examine several CSWL waves (2005–2013) and show that it is not representative for the population with a pension income. We then develop a methodology to draw a large dataset from the CSWL that is much more representative of the retired population in terms of pension type, gender and age. This procedure also makes it possible for users to choose between goodness of fit and subsample size. In order to illustrate the practical significance of our methodology, the paper also contains an application in which we generate a large subsample distribution from the 2010 CSWL. The results are striking: with a very small reduction in the size of the original CSWL, we significantly reduce errors in estimating pension expenditure for 2010, with a p value greater or equal to 0.999.

Analysis of the representativeness of the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL): the case of the benefits provided by the Spanish Public Pension System

El objetivo de este trabajo es contribuir a aumentar el conocimiento de la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales (MCVL) en cuanto a la informacion sobre prestaciones y advertir de posibles errores que se podrian cometer a la hora de realizar cierto tipo de estudios sobre el sistema publico de pensiones. Se analiza el conjunto de datos de prestaciones de la MCVL de 2010 teniendo en cuenta los datos agrupados por tipo de pension, grupos de edad y genero, asi como por cuantia. Despues de realizar las pruebas estadisticas apropiadas sobre el ajuste de la muestra a la poblacion basada en los datos del Informe Estadistico anual del INSS del mismo ano, se concluye que los datos extraidos de la MCVL pueden no ser una fiel replica de la poblacion objeto de estudio, para cierto tipo de investigaciones, debido a su concepcion inicial (Muestra Aleatoria Simple), algunos errores originados en las fuentes administrativas y problemas de reclasificacion. Este resultado advierte de las implicaciones que pudiera tener en aquellos estudios que seleccionaran una submuestra de los datos de la MCVL sobre determinado tipo de prestaciones.

Selection of Large Sub-Samples from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives Representative of the Benefits Provided by the Spanish Public Pension System

The Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL) is a set of anonymized microdata with information about individuals taken from Spanish Social Security records. It provides very valuable information, which is used in many studies on labor economics and in the analysis of the Spanish public pension system. This article presents two major contributions: The first is an analysis of how representative CSWL is of the population of pensioners for the period 2005-2013. It is concluded that the CSWL does not follow the same distribution as the population with respect to some types of benefits, and that this happens in most waves. One of the reasons is that it is obtained by simple random sampling, so the fit to the population by age, gender and type of pension is worse than it would have been under stratified random sampling (SR) with proportional allocation. As a possible solution, researchers could obtain a sub-sample by SR from CSWL. In this article we illustrate that this implies giving up a large number of pension records and thus reducing the diversity of data on working lives and types of pensioner. Hence, a second contribution of this paper is the application of a novel methodology based on optimization for choosing large sub-samples drawn from CSWL that are more representative of the population of pensioners. The advantages of using this sample design procedure are estimated by comparing the estimates for total pension expenditure provided by the CSWL and by such sub-samples.

A Procedure for Selecting Representative Subsamples of a Population from a Simple Random Sample

This paper proposes a procedure for selecting large subsamples drawn from a large simple random sample that are more representative of the population under study. By means of the so-called constant of proportionality, the procedure seeks to maximize the size of the subsample taken from a stratified random sample with proportional allocation, restricting it to a p-value high enough to achieve a good fit using Pearson’s chi-square goodness of fit test. The user has the freedom to choose between a larger subsample with poorer adjustment or a smaller subsample with a better fit. We use the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL), a set of micro data taken from Spanish Social Security records, to illustrate the procedure, finding large subsamples with better representativeness than the original. The advantages of using this sample selection design procedure can be seen by comparing the estimate of total pension expenditure provided by the CSWL and that provided by the subsamples obtained. Having large subsamples that are more representative leads to better quality in any subsequent analysis of the sustainability of public pension systems.

Es La Mcvl Representativa De Las Prestaciones Del Sistema PPblico De Pensiones? (Is the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL) Representative of the Benefits Provided by the Spanish Public Pension System?)

Spanish Abstract: En este trabajo se examina si los datos sobre pensiones incluidos en la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales (MCVL) son validos para realizar cierto tipo de proyecciones sobre la sostenibilidad del sistema publico de pensiones. Se analiza al conjunto de datos de prestaciones de la muestra teniendo en cuenta los datos agrupados por tipo de pension, grupos de edad y genero, asi como por cuantia. Despues de realizar las pruebas estadisticas apropiadas sobre el ajuste de la muestra a la poblacion, se concluye que la MCVL, en su conjunto, no refleja la distribucion seguida por la poblacion respecto a alguno de los tipos de prestaciones, por edad y genero. Este resultado advierte de los efectos en las proyecciones sobre de sistema de pensiones publicas que pudiera tener la seleccion de una sub-muestra de la MCVL que no sea representativa de la poblacion. English Abstract: This article examines if the data on pensions included in the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL) are valid for certain types of projections on the sustainability of the public pension system. The CSWL is analyzed considering the data grouped by type and amount of benefit, age cohorts and gender. After performing the appropriate statistical tests on the adjustment of the sample to the population, it is concluded that the CSWL, as a whole, is not a true reflection of the distribution followed by the population in each year, by type of pension, age, sex, and amount. This result warns us about the possible adverse effects on the projections made about the Spanish public pension system.