Contingent Screening Strategy Research Articles

Improved contingent screening strategy increased trisomy 21 detection rate in the second trimester

Improved contingent screening strategy increased trisomy 21 detection rate in the second trimester

A new contingent screening strategy increased detection rate of trisomy 21 in the first trimester

BackgroundAlthough the traditional contingent screening strategy is effective, there are still undetected low-risk trisomy 21. This study aims to define appropriate cut-off values of serum biochemical markers at low-risk and develop a strategy for sequential prenatal testing associated with first-trimester screening to increase the detection rate of trisomy 21.MethodsThis was a 9-year retrospective analysis of singleton pregnant women who underwent serum biochemical screening or combined first-trimester screening (CFTS) in the first trimester. For the low-risk group, the cut-off values of the serum biochemical markers were adjusted to determine the appropriate detection efficiency. Gravidas with abnormal serum biochemical markers at low-risk were advised to undergo further non-invasive prenatal screening (NIPS), whereas others continued with routine prenatal care.ResultsWhen cut-off values of free beta subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (free β-hCG) multiples of the median (MoM) or pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) MoM were defined with ≥ 2.75 or ≤ 0.5, 7.72% (2,194/28,405) in the serum biochemical screening group and 12.36% (4,005/32,403) in CFTS group could be detected as abnormal results for further NIPS. Finally, 55.56% (5/9) and 85.71% (6/7) of trisomy 21 cases with false-negative results were detected, and the overall detection rate for trisomy 21 was improved by 10.64% (5/47) and 12.77% (6/47), respectively.ConclusionsThe new contingent screening strategy can increase the detection rate of trisomy 21 compared with the traditional contingent screening strategy.

An update of diagnostic efficacy of ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis of clinically significant placenta accreta spectrum disorders.

Purpose of reviewSystematic screening and diagnosis of placenta accreta spectrum disorder (PAS) either by ultrasound or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) would allow referral of high-risk women to specialized multidisciplinary teams. We aimed to report recent findings regarding the diagnostic accuracy of ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis of PAS.Recent findingsRecent evidence from the literature shows that both ultrasound and MRI are good tests to identify PAS in high-risk populations. Ultrasound can also be used safely to guide management decisions, concentrating greater resources in patients with the higher risk of clinically significant PAS requiring complex peripartum management. Moreover, there are increasing data showing that routine contingent screening for PAS disorders based on the finding of a placenta implanted low in the uterine cavity and previous uterine surgery is effective in a public healthcare setting. A contingent screening strategy for PAS is feasible if placental location is routinely assessed during routine scans, and may even start from the first trimester of pregnancy.SummaryUltrasound is an effective tool to screen pregnancies at high risk of PAS. In such pregnancies, ultrasound and MRI are effective imaging modalities for guiding management.

Second-trimester contingent screening for small-for-gestational-age neonate.

First, to investigate the additive value of second-trimester placental growth factor (PlGF) for the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate. Second, to examine second-trimester contingent screening strategies. This was a prospective observational study in women with singleton pregnancy undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 19-24 weeks' gestation. We used the competing-risks model for prediction of SGA. The parameters for the prior model and the likelihoods for estimated fetal weight (EFW) and uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) were those presented in previous studies. A folded-plane regression model was fitted in the dataset of this study to describe the likelihood of PlGF. We compared the prediction of screening by maternal risk factors against the prediction provided by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF. We also examined the additive value of PlGF in a policy that uses maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI. The study population included 40 241 singleton pregnancies. Overall, the prediction of SGA improved with increasing degree of prematurity, with increasing severity of smallness and in the presence of coexisting pre-eclampsia. The combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF improved significantly the prediction provided by maternal risk factors alone for all the examined cut-offs of birth weight and gestational age at delivery. Screening by a combination of maternal risk factors and serum PlGF improved the prediction of SGA when compared to screening by maternal risk factors alone. However, the incremental improvement in prediction was decreased when PlGF was added to screening by a combination of maternal risk factors, EFW and UtA-PI. If first-line screening for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10th percentile delivered at < 37 weeks' gestation was by maternal risk factors and EFW, the same detection rate of 90%, at an overall false-positive rate (FPR) of 50%, as that achieved by screening with maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF in the whole population can be achieved by reserving measurements of UtA-PI and PlGF for only 80% of the population. Similarly, in screening for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10th percentile delivered at < 30 weeks, the same detection rate of 90%, at an overall FPR of 14%, as that achieved by screening with maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF in the whole population can be achieved by reserving measurements of UtA-PI and PlGF for only 70% of the population. The additive value of PlGF in reducing the FPR to about 10% with a simultaneous detection rate of 90% for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 3rd percentile born < 30 weeks, is gained by measuring PlGF in only 50% of the population when first-line screening is by maternal factors, EFW and UtA-PI. The combination of maternal risk factors, EFW, UtA-PI and PlGF provides effective second-trimester prediction of SGA. Serum PlGF is useful for predicting a SGA neonate with birth weight < 3rd percentile born < 30 weeks after an inclusive assessment by maternal risk factors and biophysical markers. Similar detection rates and FPRs can be achieved by application of contingent screening strategies. © 2021 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Effectiveness of contingent screening for placenta accreta spectrum disorders based on persistent low‐lying placenta and previous uterine surgery

Maternal mortality related to placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) disorders remains substantial when diagnosed unexpectedly at delivery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a routine contingent ultrasound screening program for PAS. This was a retrospective study of data obtained between 2009 and 2019, involving two groups: a screening cohort of unselected women attending for routine mid-trimester ultrasound assessment and a diagnostic cohort consisting of women referred to the PAS diagnostic service with a suspected diagnosis of PAS. In the screening cohort, women with a low-lying placenta at the mid-trimester assessment were followed up in the third trimester, and those with a persistent low-lying placenta (i.e. placenta previa) and previous uterine surgery were referred to the PAS diagnostic service. Ultrasound assessment by the PAS diagnostic service consisted of two-dimensional grayscale and color Doppler ultrasonography, and women with a diagnosis of PAS were usually managed with conservative myometrial resection. The final diagnosis of PAS was based on a combination of intraoperative clinical findings and histopathological examination of the surgical specimen. In total, 57 179 women underwent routine mid-trimester fetal anatomy assessment, of whom 220 (0.4%) had a third-trimester diagnosis of placenta previa. Seventy-five of these women were referred to the PAS diagnostic service because of a history of uterine surgery, and 21 of 22 cases of PAS were diagnosed correctly (sensitivity, 95.45% (95% CI, 77.16-99.88%) and specificity, 100% (95% CI, 99.07-100%)). Univariate analysis demonstrated that parity ≥ 2 (odds ratio (OR), 35.50 (95% CI, 6.90-649.00)), two or more previous Cesarean sections (OR, 94.20 (95% CI, 22.00-656.00)) and placenta previa (OR, 20.50 (95% CI, 4.22-369.00)) were the strongest risk factors for PAS. In the diagnostic cohort, there were 173 referrals, with one false-positive and three false-negative diagnoses, resulting in a sensitivity of 96.63% (95% CI, 90.46-99.30%) and a specificity of 98.81% (95% CI, 93.54-99.97%). A contingent screening strategy for PAS is both feasible and effective in a routine healthcare setting. When linked to a PAS diagnostic and surgical management service, adoption of such a screening strategy has the potential to reduce the maternal morbidity and mortality associated with this condition. However, larger prospective studies are necessary before implementing this screening strategy into routine clinical practice. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Clinical application of a contingent screening strategy for trisomies with cell-free DNA: a pilot study

BackgroundDifferent strategies have been designed for clinical implementation of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a contingent strategy based on conventional screening and offering cfDNA to the intermediate-risk group, for the screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13. Secondary objectives were to assess the uptake of cfDNA in women with intermediate-risk, to evaluate the performance of cfDNA testing, and the preferences of pregnant women with intermediate risk.MethodsProspective observational pilot study between February 2016 and March 2017. Singleton pregnancies with a known outcome were included in the study. At the conventional screening (first trimester combined test or second trimester quadruple test) women were classified in high (risk ≥1:250) or low risk (< 1:250). For the study, a contingent strategy was applied: following the conventional screening women were classified into three groups: high risk (risk ≥1:10 or nuchal translucency ≥3 mm), intermediate-risk (risk 1:11 to 1:1500) and low risk (< 1:1500), and a cfDNA test was offered to those at the intermediate risk.ResultsFor the analysis, 2639 women were included, 2422 (91.8%) had a first trimester combined test and 217 (8.2%) a second trimester quadruple test. There were 5 cases of trisomy 21, 4 of trisomy 18 and none of trisomy 13. For the contingent strategy, the detection rate and false positive rates were 88.9% (8/9) and 1.3% (35/2630), respectively. For the conventional strategy, the detection rate and false positive rates were 66.7% (6/9) and 5.3% (140/2630), respectively. The cfDNA test had a detection rate for trisomy 21 of 100% (3 out of 3), and a false positive rate of 0.2% (1/466). In a survey, 81.8% (374/457) of women in the intermediate-risk group would choose cfDNA testing as the second line test, mainly due to the lack of risk for the fetus.ConclusionA contingent screening strategy for trisomies 21, 18 and 13, based on conventional screening, and offering a cfDNA test to women with a risk between 1:11 to 1:1500, reduced the false positive rate and increased the detection rate for these trisomies. Moreover, this strategy is well accepted by women.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Non-invasive Prenatal Testing for Down Syndrome in China.

There is little evidence in China regarding the cost-effectiveness of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down syndrome (DS). This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of NIPT and provide evidence to inform decision-making. To determine the cost-effectiveness of NIPT for DS, a decision-analytic model was developed using the TreeAge Pro software from a societal perspective in a simulated cohort of 10 000 pregnant women. Main indicators were based on field surveys from sampled hospitals in four locations in China and a literature review. The conventional maternal serum screening (CMSS) strategy, contingent screening strategy (NIPT delivered to high risk pregnant women after CMSS), and universal screening strategy could prevent 3.02, 7.53, and 9.97 DS births, respectively. NIPT would decrease unnecessary invasive procedures, resulting in fewer procedure-related miscarriages. The cost-effectiveness ratio of the contingent screening strategy was the lowest. When compared with the CMSS strategy, the incremental cost per DS birth averted by the contingent screening strategy and universal screening strategy were USD 20,160 and 352,388, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that, if the cost of NIPT could be decreased to USD 76.92, the cost-effectiveness ratio of the universal screening strategy would be lower than the CMSS strategy. Although NIPT has the merits of greater effectiveness and safety, CMSS is unlikely to be replaced by NIPT at this time because of NIPT's higher cost. Contingent screening may be an appropriate strategy to balance the effectiveness and cost factors of the new genetic testing technology.

Screening for Common Fetal Trisomies in Twin Pregnancies: First-Trimester Combined, Cell-Free DNA, or Both?

Objective: To examine the distribution of risks for fetal trisomies after first-trimester combined screening in twins and to investigate different strategies for clinical implementation of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed all twin pregnancies undergoing first-trimester combined screening over a 10 years’ period. The population was stratified according to various risk cut-offs, and we examined different screening strategies for implementation of cfDNA testing in terms of impact on invasive testing rate, cfDNA test failure rate, and economic costs. Results: We included 572 twin pregnancies: 480 (83.92%) dichorionic and 92 (16.08%) monochorionic. Performing a first-line combined screening and offering cfDNA testing to the group with a risk between 1 in 10 and 1 in 1,000, would lead to an invasive testing rate of 2.45%, and cfDNA testing would be performed in 22.20% of the population. This strategy would be cost-neutral compared to universal combined screening alone. Conclusions: First-trimester combined screening results can be used to stratify twin pregnancies into different risk categories and select those that could be offered cfDNA testing. A contingent screening strategy would substantially decrease the need for invasive testing in twins and it would be cost-neutral compared to combined testing alone.

Comparing outcomes and costs between contingent and combined first-trimester screening strategies for Down's syndrome

ObjectiveTo compare a contingent strategy with a combined strategy for prenatal detection of Down's syndrome (DS) in terms of cost, outcomes and safety. Study designThe contingent strategy was based on a simulation, removing measurement of the free beta subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) and calculating the DS risk retrospectively in 32,371 pregnant women who had been screened with the combined strategy in the first trimester. In the contingent strategy, a risk between 1:31 and 1:1000 in the first trimester indicated further testing in the second trimester (alpha-fetoprotein, inhibin A, unconjugated oestriol and free βhCG). The cut-off risk values for the contingent and combined strategies in the first trimester were 1:30 and 1:250, respectively, and the cut-off risk value for integrated screening in the second trimester was 1:250. Costs were compared in terms of avoided DS births, and the ratio of loss of healthy fetuses following invasive procedures per avoided DS birth was calculated. ResultsThe combined strategy had sensitivity of 40/44 (90.9%) and a false-positive rate of 2.8%. Corresponding values for the contingent strategy were 39/44 (88.6%) and 1.3%, respectively. Only 11% of pregnant women required tests in the second trimester, and the approximate cost reduction for each avoided DS birth was 5000€. The ratio of lost healthy fetuses following invasive procedures per avoided DS birth improved by up to 0.65. ConclusionThe contingent strategy has similar effectiveness to the combined strategy, but has lower costs and fewer invasive procedures.

Likelihood Ratios to Apply for Nasal Bone, Ductus Venosus and Tricuspid Flow at the 11-13 Weeks' Scan in Down Syndrome Screening

Objective: To assess the feasibility of nasal bone (NB), ductus venosus (DV) and tricuspid flow (TF) at the 11-13 weeks' scan, calculate likelihood ratios for each of the markers and evaluate their efficacy in expanded and contingent screening strategies for Down syndrome. Material and Methods: NB, DV and TF were assessed in 11,261 singleton fetuses undergoing first trimester combined screening. For each marker, Down syndrome detection rate (DR), false positive rate (FPR), positive, negative and isolated likelihood ratios (PLR, NLR and iLR) were calculated. Likelihood ratios were multiplied to the combined test risk either to the entire population or to the intermediate risk group (expanded and sequential strategies, respectively). Results: Down syndrome was diagnosed in 101 pregnancies. Feasibility for marker assessment ranged from 71 to 97%, DRs for isolated markers from 20 to 54% and FPRs from 1.3 to 5.3%. PLR ranged from 10 to 15, NLR from 0.5 to 0.8 and iLR from 3.9 to 5.6. When ultrasound markers were added to both strategies, a significant FPR reduction was observed. Conclusion: The application of NB, DV and TF likelihood ratios to the combined test risk, either in an expanded or contingent strategy, result in a FPR reduction.

Screening performance for trisomy 21 comparing first trimester combined screening and a first trimester contingent screening protocol including ductus venosus and tricuspid flow

To compare the standard first trimester combined risk assessment for trisomy 21 with a contingent screening protocol including tricuspid flow and ductus venosus flow. Women with singleton pregnancies and a first trimester combined risk assessment>1:1000 were included. They all had additional assessment of the ductus venosus and the tricuspid flow. We compared screening performance in two screening strategies: (a) First trimester combined screening strategy based on the individual risk results from the routine screening test and (b) Contingent screening strategy based on a combination of the routine test results and additional ultrasound markers. We included 917 women in the study, 894 in the euploid group and 23 in the trisomy 21 group. Using a contingent screening strategy resulted in a significant decrease in screen positive rate from 48.3% to 17.7% (p<0.001) in the studied population. There was no statistical difference in detection rate between the two screening strategies. There is increasing evidence in favour of using additional ultrasound markers as part of contingent screening protocols in the first trimester. We do suggest performing further studies in routine clinical settings to provide validation of the available risk algorithms.

Contingent screening for Down syndrome completed in the first trimester: a multicenter study

To assess a new contingent screening strategy for Down syndrome completed in the first trimester. First-trimester screening combining nuchal translucency thickness measurement and assessment of serum analytes (combined test) was offered to pregnant women who presented for prenatal care during the first trimester to nine health centers and community hospitals in the area served by the Catalan Public Health Service. If an intermediate risk (1/101-1/1000) for Down syndrome was identified, women were referred to the Hospital Clinic Barcelona for risk reassessment that included the use of secondary ultrasound markers (nasal bone, ductus venosus blood flow and tricuspid flow). Intermediate-risk women were divided into two subgroups for further analysis: high-intermediate risk (1/101-1/250) and low-intermediate risk (1/251-1/1000). We compared feasibility and efficacy of both combined and contingent screening strategies. The combined test, the first screening stage, was performed in 16 001 pregnant women, of whom 1617 (10.1%) were found to have an intermediate risk. Further division of this group showed that 1.8% (n = 289) of women were at high-intermediate risk and 8.3% (n = 1328) at low-intermediate risk. The contingent screening strategy significantly reduced the false-positive rate, from 3.0% to 1.3-1.8% (P < 0.001), without affecting the detection rate (which was 75-79% and 76%, with and without the contingent screening strategy, respectively). However, only 45% of intermediate-risk patients underwent the second screening step due to a preference among high-intermediate-risk (1/101-1/250) women for invasive testing and to low uptake among low-intermediate-risk (1/251-1/1000) women. The proposed first-trimester contingent strategy reduces the screen false-positive rate without impacting on the detection rate of Down syndrome. The low compliance observed in our study may prevent its use in certain populations.

Prospective experience with contingent screening strategy for Down syndrome in Estonia

The purpose of this study was to establish the first-trimester screening for Down syndrome (DS) in Estonia and to evaluate the potential of a contingent screening in the population of pregnant women. A prospective cohort study included non-selected pregnancies during the programme of first-trimester screening for DS in a 4-year period at a single centre. The following screening tests were evaluated: measurement of nuchal translucency (NT) and serum screening [pregnancy-associated plasma protein A and free beta subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (fβ-HCG)]; results were given as combined screening. After first-trimester screening, contingent screening protocol was used, and women were divided into three groups: high risk, low risk and an intermediate risk group. In the last group, a second-trimester triple test (AFP; total HCG and uE3) was also performed. The study group consisted of 3,194 non-selected pregnancies. In 1,387 (43.4%) women, first-trimester serum screening showed low risk (risk ≤ 1:5,000), and no future testing was performed, in 30 (0.9%) women screening test showed high risk (risk ≥ 1:50) and a diagnostic test was offered, and in 1,777 (55.7%) women repeated risk calculation in the second trimester was done. During the study period, there were 17 cases of trisomy 21, of which 15 (88.3%) were detected with the described screening programme. In conclusion, two-step contingent sequential screening is a better choice for Down syndrome screening in Estonia instead of previously used second-trimester screening, and it offers the advantage of earlier diagnosis.

Down syndrome screening using first‐trimester combined tests and contingent use of femur length at routine anomaly scan

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the contingent use of femur length (FL) at routine mid-trimester scan in screening for Down syndrome (DS) in women having previously undergone first-trimester screening with disclosure of risk estimates. Data from a prospective screening trial for DS in a population of 21 492 women with 80 observed DS were used. The performance of a contingent screening strategy based on adding short FL (FL < 5th percentile) as a soft marker in women at intermediate first-trimester risks was evaluated through simulated data. In our population, the median (25th-75th percentile) maternal age was 30.7 years (28.0-33.9; range: 18.0-46.3). The median (25th-75th percentile) gestational age at ultrasound examination was 12 weeks 3 days (12 weeks and 12 weeks 6 days; range: 11 weeks to 13 weeks 6 days). Contingent screening allowed an improvement in screening performance. For example, using a first-trimester risk cut-off of 1/100 and an intermediate-risk population within (1/1000, 1/100) for the search of FL, a sensitivity (Se) of 88.4% at a 3% false-positive rate (FPR) was reached. With a cut-off of 1/200 and an intermediate-risk population within (1/1000, 1/200), screening would allow an Se of 92.3% at a 4% FPR. Contingent screening could be used following first-trimester combined screening followed by second-trimester ultrasound soft markers. This could identify indications for early invasive testing in the highest risk cases and would allow efficient and simple ultrasound-based screening in the second trimester. This would provide an 88.4% Se for a 3% FPR, at no additional cost as compared to first-trimester combined screening and routine mid-trimester scan.

Comparison of first‐trimester contingent screening strategies for Down syndrome

To assess the relative performance of a multi-stage first-trimester screening protocol for fetal Down syndrome. Data from 10,767 women who underwent combined ultrasound and biochemistry (BC) screening in the first trimester were reanalyzed using a contingent model approach. Amongst the 10,854 fetuses with known outcome, 32 had Down syndrome, 232 had other abnormalities and 10,590 were unaffected. Nuchal translucency (NT), BC and combined (NT-BC) gestational age-specific risks were calculated for each individual using The Fetal Medicine Foundation risk calculation algorithms (Mixture Model and Biochemistry). Individual patients were categorized as at low, high or intermediate risk according to one of the following three strategies. In 'Strategy-NT-BC' initial screening was performed using both NT and BC. In 'Strategy-BC' initial screening was undertaken using maternal serum markers followed by NT assessment in those with an intermediate risk (1 : 51 < risk <or= 1:1000) while in 'Strategy-NT' initial screening was undertaken using NT followed by serum marker assessment in those with an intermediate risk (1 : 51 < risk <or= 1:1000). The nasal bone was assessed in those with an intermediate risk as the final stage in each of the three strategies. Those with an adjusted risk of 1 in 100 or higher after nasal bone assessment were reclassified as high risk. Detection and false-positive rates were compared between differing strategies in our local population, and this analysis was also performed with the maternal age for our population standardized to the distribution found in England and Wales. In our local population the detection rate for a 5% false-positive rate using a combined screening policy (NT-BC) was 88% (95% CI, 75.3-98.9%), and 2.3% had an absent nasal bone. The respective detection rate and false-positive rate of the three multi-stage screening strategies were: Strategy-NT-BC: 87.5 and 2.5%; Strategy-BC: 87.5 and 5%; Strategy-NT: 84.4 and 2.9%. In the contingent Strategy-BC only 29% of those initially screened using serum markers required an NT scan. If the model were applied to a hypothetical obstetric population standardized to the maternal age distribution in England and Wales, the detection and false-positive rates of the same three screening strategies would be: Strategy-NT-BC: 86.2 and 1.9%; Strategy-BC: 82.8 and 4%; Strategy-NT: 75.8 and 2.3%, respectively. First-trimester contingent screening provides detection and false-positive rates comparable to those achieved using combined screening, but could be used to significantly reduce the number of scans performed.

Comparison of different strategies in prenatal screening for Down’s syndrome: cost effectiveness analysis of computer simulation

Objectives To assess and compare the cost effectiveness of three different strategies for prenatal screening for Down’s syndrome (integrated test, sequential screening, and contingent screenings) and to determine the most...

Correlation between nuchal translucency and nuchal skin‐fold measurements in Down syndrome and unaffected fetuses

To assess whether there is a correlation between nuchal translucency (NT) and nuchal skin-fold (NF) measurements, in Down syndrome and in normal pregnancies. Nineteen Down syndrome and 224 normal fetuses underwent ultrasound sequential examinations at 11-13 weeks and 14-28 weeks' gestation. NT was measured at the earlier examination and NF at the later one. Both markers were expressed in multiples of the normal gestation-specific median (MoM). The affected cases had been referred to us for termination of pregnancy; NT had been measured locally and NF was measured at our center prior to the procedure. All unaffected pregnancies were scanned routinely at our center. There was no statistically significant correlation between NT and NF, in either the Down syndrome (r = 0.076, P = 0.76) or the unaffected (r = - 0.021, P = 0.76) pregnancies. The median NF value in Down syndrome fetuses was 1.538 MoM, compared with 0.990 in unaffected fetuses (P < 0.0001). Gaussian modeling with parameters from a published meta-analysis, updated to include the current series, predicted a 91% detection rate of Down syndrome for a 5% false-positive rate when NF replaced second-trimester biochemistry in a sequential contingent screening strategy. While this study cannot exclude a small correlation between NT and NF, and the Down syndrome karyotype was known at the time of the NF scan, the markers can be considered as independent determinants of Down syndrome risk. Modeling suggests that sequential contingent screening incorporating NF is an effective screening strategy, although this needs to be confirmed in a prospective study.

Comparing Three Screening Strategies for Combining First- and Second-Trimester Down Syndrome Markers

To describe the choices and tradeoffs inherent in 3 published strategies that combine first- and second-trimester markers for Down syndrome screening. Published marker distributions for Down syndrome and unaffected pregnancies in the first and second trimesters were combined with a maternal age distribution and age-associated Down syndrome risk in a statistical model to compare sequential, contingent, and integrated screening. Sequential and contingent screening strategies are always less efficient (higher false-positive rate for a given detection rate) than integrated screening, but the reduction in efficiency is dependent on the combination of risk cutoffs chosen. At a fixed false-positive rate, sequential and contingent strategies perform better when a higher proportion of the false positives occur in the second trimester. For all 3 strategies, increasing the overall false-positive rate from 2% to 5% increases detection (from approximately 85% to 91%). Although associated with reduced screening efficiency compared with integrated screening, both sequential and contingent screening identify the majority of detected Down syndrome cases early. With contingent screening, the process is also completed in the first trimester for most women. Integrated screening is the most efficient of the 3 strategies, but it is possible to select risk cutoffs for both sequential and contingent strategies that minimize losses in efficiency while maintaining early detection and early completion. For all of these strategies, well-designed intervention trials are needed to determine acceptability to women and providers in primary care settings and to assess real-world performance. III.