Contingency Requirements Research Articles

USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO QUANTIFY THE COST IMPACT OF SYSTEMIC RISK FACTORS IN A PROJECT PORTFOLIO: A CASE STUDY

In terms of project risk management, ‘systemic risk’ is identified as risks which are artefacts of the environment which a project is executed in, and are related to (i) the project team’s actions, (ii) how project controls are managed and interact, and (iii) how the project is planned and executed. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the cost impact of systemic risk on a portfolio of projects by using risk quantification and Monte Carlo simulation, in the absence of a validated parametric risk model, to estimate the systemic risks in an entire portfolio of projects. The case study simulation results indicate a significant effect of systemic risks on the project portfolio risk profile, where systemic risks increased the P80 value of the contingency requirement by +85.6%. The successful management of systemic risk would contribute to project success by limiting unnecessary waste.

Syn3 Gene Knockout Negatively Impacts Aspects of Reversal Learning Performance.

Behavioral flexibility enables the ability to adaptively respond to changes in contingency requirements to maintain access to desired outcomes, and deficits in behavioral flexibility have been documented in many psychiatric disorders. Previous research has shown a correlation between behavioral flexibility measured in a reversal learning test and Syn3, the gene encoding synapsin III, which negatively regulates phasic dopamine release. Syn3 expression in the hippocampus, striatum, and neocortex is reported to be negatively correlated with reversal learning performance, so here, we used a global knock-out line to investigate reversal learning in mice homozygous wild type, heterozygous null, and homozygous null for the Syn3 gene. Compared with wild-type animals, we found a reversal-specific effect of genetic Syn3 deficiency that resulted in a greater proportional increase in trials required to reach a preset performance criterion during contingency reversal, despite no observed genotype effects on the ability to acquire the initial discrimination. Behavioral flexibility scores, which quantified the likelihood of switching subsequent choice behavior following positive or negative feedback, became significantly more negative in reversal only for Syn3 homozygous-null mice, suggesting a substantial increase in perseverative behavior in the reversal phase. Syn3 ablation reduced the number of anticipatory responses made per trial, often interpreted as a measure of waiting impulsivity. Overall, Syn3 expression negatively affected behavioral flexibility in a reversal-specific manner but may have reduced waiting impulsivity.

Configuration of flexible volumetric elements using product platforms: Information modeling method and a case study

Industrialized house building companies producing single-family housing must efficiently respond to customer needs and contingent requirements during product specification. These are the incentives for the adoption of high-level mass customization, addressed in this research, by exploring the information modeling of product platform use. Knowledge contributions are made through a proposed information modeling method and its application in a case study. The proposed method is a synthesis between the design platform and product-oriented information delivery manual. The scope of the information delivery manual is expanded from building systems to product platforms. Moreover, the design process is considered during both product predefinition and product specification. The theoretical construct of design modules is used to describe flexible volumetric elements and thereby apply the proposed information modeling method in a case study. The research demonstrates how design modules can be modeled using design assets throughout the design process of single-family industrialized house building.

Evaluating machine learning models for the fast identification of contingency cases

AbstractFast approximations of power flow results are beneficial in power system planning and live operation. In planning, millions of power flow calculations are necessary if multiple years, different control strategies, or contingency policies are to be considered. In live operation, grid operators must assess if grid states comply with contingency requirements in a short time. In this paper, we compare regression and classification methods to either predict multivariable results, for example, bus voltage magnitudes and line loadings, or binary classifications of time steps to identify critical loading situations. We test the methods on three realistic power systems based on time series in 15 and 5 minutes resolution of 1 year. We compare different machine learning models, such as multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), decision trees, k‐nearest neighbors, gradient boosting, and evaluate the required training time and prediction times as well as the prediction errors. We additionally determine the amount of training data needed for each method and show results, including the approximation of untrained curtailment of generation. Regarding the compared methods, we identified the MLPs as most suitable for the task. The MLP‐based models can predict critical situations with an accuracy of 97% to 98% and a very low number of false negative predictions of 0.0% to 0.64%.

Contractual procurement alternatives of air force contingency pharmaceuticals: a cost-benefit analysis

Purpose This paper aims to explore effective supply chain principles, through the theory of transaction cost economics, as measures to improve current contingency pharmaceutical item shortfalls in the Air Force Medical Service (AFMS) Contingency Pharmaceutical Programme. Design/methodology/approach In this research, AFMS contingency pharmaceutical data was collected from various databases, including the Joint Medical Asset Repository, Medical Contingency Requirements Workflow and the Medical Requirements List. Through the methodology of cost-benefit analysis, alternative sourcing and fulfilment practices are evaluated. Findings The findings of this research indicate that the application of centralized purchasing principles, in an effort to leverage prime vendor contract fill rates for shortage items, can lead to 12%–17% increases in pharmaceutical material availability across the programme. Originality/value This research clearly shows that consolidating demand for shortage items across Active Duty War Reserve Material assemblages, though applications of centralized purchasing principles that leverage prime vendor contract fill rates, can lead to substantial increases in material availability at costs that justify the calculated benefits.

A Graph Theory Method for Identification of a Minimum Breakpoint Set for Directional Relay Coordination

The energy grid becomes more complex with increasing penetration of renewable resources, distributed energy storage, distributed generators, and more diverse loads such as electric vehicle charging stations. The presence of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires directional protection due to the added potential for energy to flow in both directions down the line. Additionally, contingency requirements for critical loads within a microgrid may result in looped or meshed systems. Computation speeds of iterative methods required to coordinate loops are improved by starting with a minimum breakpoint set (MBPS) of relays. A breakpoint set (BPS) is a set of breakers such that, when opened, breaks all loops in a mesh grid creating a radial system. A MBPS is a BPS that consists of the minimum possible number of relays required to accomplish this goal. In this paper, a method is proposed in which a minimum spanning tree is computed to indirectly break all loops in the system, and a set difference is used to identify the MBPS. The proposed method is found to minimize the cardinality of the BPS to achieve a MBPS.

Using Risk Simulation to Reduce the Capital Cost Requirement for a Programme of Capital Projects

This paper combines various concepts related to (i) project risk management, (ii) Monte Carlo simulation, (iii) project contingency cost estimation, and (iv) the relationship between project and programme risks, to illustrate that the contingency requirements are lower when simulating all the risks in the programme when comparing it with the individual project contingency requirement. A case study organisation provided 86 quantified risk registers related to port and rail capital projects. For each of these risk registers, the project contingency was estimated using a prescribed risk register template and Monte Carlo simulation software. The same 86 quantified risk registers were then used to simulate the programme contingency. The simulation results indicated that the programme contingency requirement was approximately 8% points lower than that of the sum of the individual projects. The first implication of this research result is that, should borrowed capital be used to fund the projects, the interest bill would be higher when calculating project contingency on a project-by-project basis. The second is that regularly appearing low probability, high impact risks, should be identified and these risks should be quantified not in the projects themselves, but in a centrally managed, programme cost contingency fund.

A Framework for Stacked-Benefit Analysis of Distribution-Level Energy Storage Deployment

This paper presents a planning framework for integrating energy storage (ES) systems into the distribution system. An ES system is deployed to simultaneously provide multiple benefits, also known as stacked-benefits, for the feeder. The primary and secondary application scenarios for the feeder are identified. The proposed ES deployment approach includes the following steps: (1) size the ES system for primary application; (2) identify optimal ES locations based on both primary and secondary application scenarios; (3) calculate the ES accommodation capacity for each potential location; and (4) develop control methods for ES units and conduct grid impact analysis to demonstrate ES applications. For the selected feeder, the primary application for ES deployment is to provide the N-1 contingency requirement. During normal operating conditions, ES is programmed for multiple secondary applications: voltage management and ancillary services by frequency regulation. A probabilistic approach is presented to obtain the optimal ES size for providing the N-1 contingency requirement. Optimal ES locations are obtained based on secondary application scenarios. Real and reactive power control methods are developed to demonstrate the viability of deploying an ES system for simultaneously providing multiple applications. The simulation results show that ES can successfully provide the stacked-benefits for the distribution circuit. The proposed framework is generic and can be employed for the ES integration analysis of any feeder, with different sets of primary and secondary applications.

A Framework for Stacked-Benefit Analysis of Distribution-Level Energy Storage Deployment

This paper presents a planning framework for integrating energy storage (ES) systems into the distribution system. An ES system is deployed to simultaneously provide multiple benefits, also known as stacked-benefits, for the feeder. The primary and secondary application scenarios for the feeder are identified. The proposed ES deployment approach includes the following steps: (1) size the ES system for primary application; (2) identify optimal ES locations based on both primary and secondary application scenarios; (3) calculate the ES accommodation capacity for each potential location; and (4) develop control methods for ES units and conduct grid impact analysis to demonstrate ES applications. For the selected feeder, the primary application for ES deployment is to provide the N-1 contingency requirement. During normal operating conditions, ES is programmed for multiple secondary applications: voltage management and ancillary services by frequency regulation. A probabilistic approach is presented to obtain the optimal ES size for providing the N-1 contingency requirement. Optimal ES locations are obtained based on secondary application scenarios. Real and reactive power control methods are developed to demonstrate the viability of deploying an ES system for simultaneously providing multiple applications. The simulation results show that ES can successfully provide the stacked-benefits for the distribution circuit. The proposed framework is generic and can be employed for the ES integration analysis of any feeder, with different sets of primary and secondary applications.

Extending the range of service facilities

The need to understand how different types of service facilities and resources are best directed to cater for various regular and contingent service requirements has been addressed in a number of service facility classifications. These suggest what type of a channel or service constellation best matches a more or less complex service activity. With the development of technology and changing social behaviour, improved opportunities to harness social networking resources, as well as, the resources and institutions for effective service provision, need to be understood in a broader context. For this, we suggest a classification of service facilities that takes into account both traditional service encounters, as well as, agents, specialists and internal service resources. This paper focuses on service facilities, and particularly on the extension of their range by a literature review, identification of gaps and proposing an extension to their range.

EMOTIONS AND EMOTIONAL BEHAVIOR: A CONSTRUCTIONAL APPROACH TO

A distinção entre emoção e comportamento emocional é uma diferenciação importante que não tem sido feita amplamente. Apesar das muitas abordagens existentes para emoção, a abordagem utilizada aqui é baseada em uma análise de contingência conseqüencial. Emoção é tratada não como uma causa do comportamento, nem causada pelo comportamento. Em vez disso, tanto o comportamento quanto a emoção (um evento privado especificamente) são considerados como função de contingências de seleção. O objetivo não é mudar emoções, mas tornar o cliente sensível a elas, e dessa maneira às contingências das quais elas são função. Quando alguém age mostrando características comportamentais e fisiológicas tipicamente associadas com uma emoção, a evidência pública é tratada como comportamento emocional. Um exemplo construído sobre uma forma de comportamento agressivo é utilizado para ajudar a fazer a distinção entre emoções e comportamento emocional, e fornece uma ilustração da transição de emoção como um descritor de uma contingência conseqüencial para o comportamento emocional que é mantido pelas próprias conseqüências. Uma vez que emoção muda para comportamento emocional, a emoção privada sentida pode não ser mais indicativa da contingência originária da qual ela era um descritor, mas em vez disso pode ser um componente necessário para alcançar o requisito da contingência.Palavras-chave: emoções, comportamento emocional, agressão, contingência conseqüencial, eventos evocativos,pontencializar

Theatrical Repetition and Inspired Performance

Repetition is intrinsic to theater. Besides theater's improvisational forms, a theatrical performance presents before its audience a sequence of events that the actors have rehearsed and acted many times. More than a contingent requirement of the ater, repetition is intimately linked with aesthetic value. Successful repetition has been described (such as by Strasberg above) as the greatest chal lenge for an actor.1 Inferior acting discloses aware ness of what is about to occur, or projects the out come of a lived process before it has taken place, or rushes through a dialogue in a pace that can not realistically capture the actual temporality of a conversation. Such failures reveal an inability to repeat a lived process when one's prior knowledge is not fully suspended. As for the audience, it is tempting to suppose that it ignores or is altogether unaware of the fact that it is attending an act of repetition. Tempt ing, indeed, but probably simplistic. The audience knows that the actor crying now has wept at last night's performance too. If spectators watch the performance again, they will see tears shed at pre cisely the same moment. If asked, theatergoers would assert that they are fully cognizant that repetition is taking place. By ignoring the diffi culty that accounting for repetition poses for un derstanding theater, we risk missing the intriguing key that it provides for unlocking dimensions of theater's uniqueness. We are also likely to over look an aspect that fuels our persistent fascination with theater, a fascination that should have van ished with the heightened realism readily created by cinema. What is theatrical repetition? How does such repetition differ from duplication or exercise? What might be the significance of the audience's consciousness of attending a repeated event to the overall meaning of theater as a distinct branch of performing art? My objective in what follows is to unfold the role that repetition might play for both creating and watching theater (and proba bly the role it sometimes plays in other perform ing arts as well). The answers such inquiry leads to do not account for the content of specific the atrical performances (roles, themes, images), but for the ways in which structural features of play acting touch upon subjective experience. I argue that both theatrical repetition and the subliminal awareness that one is enacting or witnessing it play a crucial role in theatrical communication in gen eral and may partly account for the significance of live acting in particular.

The Metaphilosophy of Information

This article mounts a defence of Floridi's theory of strongly semantic information against recent independent objections from Fetzer and Dodig-Crnkovic. It is argued that Fetzer and Dodig-Crnkovic's objections result from an adherence to a redundant practice of analysis. This leads them to fail to accept an informational pluralism, as stipulated by what will be referred to as Shannon's Principle, and the non-reductionist stance. It is demonstrated that Fetzer and Dodig-Crnkovic fail to acknowledge that Floridi's theory of strongly semantic information captures one of our deepest and most compelling intuitions regarding informativeness as a basic notion. This modal intuition will be referred to as the contingency requirement on informativeness. It will be demonstrated that its clarification validates the theory of strongly semantic information as a novel, and non ad hoc solution to the Bar-Hillel-Carnap semantic paradox.

Electric power planning for regulated and deregulated markets

Preface. Acknowledgments. Figure Citations. About the Author. 1. Overview. 1.1 The Power Delivery Chain in a Vertically Integrated Utility. 1.2 The Power Delivery Chain in a Market Environment. 2. Energy, Load, and Generation Technologies. 2.1 Energy, Power, and their Measurements. 2.2 Load. 2.3 Generation Technologies. 3. The Grid. 3.1 Fundamentals: Load, Generation, and Alternating Current. 3.2 Grid Equipment. 3.3 Grid Reliability and Contingency Requirements. 3.4 Grid Confi guration. 3.5 Grid Operations. 3.6 Blackout August 14, 2003. 4. Short-Term Utility Planning. 4.1 Planning and Execution of Dispatch: Day-Ahead Planning Through Real-Time Delivery. 4.2 Day-Ahead Demand Forecasting: Load and Ancillary Service Requirements. 4.3 Least-Cost Dispatch in a Single Control Area: A Simple Model. 4.4 A Solution Using Profi t Maximization. 4.5 Least-Cost Dispatch in a Single Control Area with Operating Constraints. 4.6 Least-Cost Dispatch in a Single Node with Spinning Reserve and Regulation. 4.7 Least-Cost Dispatch in a Network. 4.8 Real Time. 5. Long-Term Utility Planning. 5.1 Project Development. 5.2 The Planning Process. 5.3 Long-Term Load Forecasting. 5.4 A Simplifi ed Look at Generation Capacity Additions. 5.5 Generation Additions and Retirements Within a Single Control Area. 5.6 Generation Additions and Retirements with Transmission to a Single Control Area. 5.7 Generation Additions and Retirements and Transmission Additions Within a Network. 5.8 Reserve Reuqirements. 6. Midterm Utility Planning. 6.1 Informational Requirements. 6.2 Formulation of the Optimization Problem. 7. A Market Environment. 7.1 Principles and Architecture. 7.2 Short-Term Market Design: Day-Ahead Scheduling Through Real-Time Delivery. 7.3 Long-Term Market Design: No Clear Solutions. 7.4 Midterm Market Design. 8. Asset Management in Short-Term Markets. 8.1 Retailers. 8.2 Power Producers. 8.3 Integrated Energy Companies. 9. Investment Analysis: Long-Term Planning in a Market Environment. 9.1 Investment Setting in Utility and Market Environments. 9.2 Project Analysis for a Merchant Plant. 9.3 Power Purchase Agreements (Long-Term Contracts). 10. Risk Management in the Midterm Markets. 10.1 Retailer Risk. 10.2 Power Producer Risk. 10.3 A Quick Risk Primer in Statistics for Risk Management. 10.4 Risk Management in Midterm Markets: Retailers. 10.5 Risk Management in Midterm Markets: Power Producers. 10.6 Risk Management in Midterm Markets: Integrated Electricity Suppliers. 11. The California Experience. 11.1 Market Fundamentals. 11.2 Short-Term Market Structure: The CALPX, CAISO, and Other Market Participants. 11.3 Fatboy, Get Shorty, Ricochet, and Death Star. 11.4 Market Contrast: PJM and California. Bibliography. Index.

Using obstacle analysis to identify contingency requirements on an unpiloted aerial vehicle

This paper describes the use of Obstacle Analysis to identify anomaly handling requirements for a safety-critical, autonomous system. The software requirements for the system evolved during operations due to an on-going effort to increase the autonomous system’s robustness. The resulting increase in autonomy also increased system complexity. This investigation used Obstacle Analysis to identify and to reason incrementally about new requirements for handling failures and other anomalous events. Results reported in the paper show that Obstacle Analysis complemented standard safety-analysis techniques in identifying undesirable behaviors and ways to resolve them. The step-by-step use of Obstacle Analysis identified potential side effects and missing monitoring and control requirements. Adding an Availability Indicator and feature-interaction patterns proved useful for the analysis of obstacle resolutions. The paper discusses the consequences of these results in terms of the adoption of Obstacle Analysis to analyze anomaly handling requirements in evolving systems.

Le contrat de partenariat constitue-t-il une private finance initiative à la française ?

Cette contribution vise à s’interroger sur le périmètre de développement potentiel des contrats de partenariat français. Il s’agit notamment de jauger ce dernier à l’aune du modèle des contrats de Private Finance Initiative britanniques. Il apparaît que les possibilités de recours à de tels contrats risquent de s’avérer bien plus réduites. Tout d’abord, le contrat de partenariat constitue un contrat dérogatoire dont les conditions de mobilisation sont strictement encadrées, et non une politique générale, comme c’est le cas au Royaume-Uni. Ensuite, la richesse de l’éventail contractuel offert par le droit administratif français et l’existence de contrats de partenariat « sectoriels » (sécurité intérieure, défense, justice, secteur hospitalier) peuvent limiter d’autant les cas de recours au contrat de partenariat stricto sensu

Differentiated governance of foreign subsidiaries in transnational corporations: an agency theory perspective

Abstract How and to what extent should a transnational corporation's governance structures be differentiated to satisfy varying strategic roles played by foreign subsidiaries? Drawing on an agency theory perspective, we examine the effects of agency problems in the headquarters–subsidiary relationships on the design of corporate governance in transnational corporations. We propose that corporate governance of foreign subsidiaries in a transnational corporation should be constructed in response to different levels of agency problems associated with varying strategic roles of foreign subsidiaries. In addition, we postulate that differentiating governance structures for each foreign subsidiary is a key contingency requirement in order to achieve superior MNE performance as a whole.

Meetings of the Future: Enhancing Group Collaboration with Group Support Systems

Meetings frequently fail to meet the objectives or expectations of the participants. The factors that diminish performance, including creativity, can be addressed through the application of electronic group support systems. A brief history of group support systems is provided. Recent developments are examined, and it is suggested that the systems offer more than the earlier planning function. Specifically they permit more opportunities for designing meeting processes to meet the contingent requirements of each group of users. As such the systems do not remove the need for leadership, merely provide ways through which leadership efforts can be supported and enhanced.

Real-time reactive security monitoring

Severe economic penalties are imposed by constraints on energy transfers imposed by contingent voltage support problems in power systems. The analysis outlined uses the granularity that characterizes power networks to define zones within which reactive reserves must match contingent reactive requirements in order to avoid voltage support problems. Tracking of reserves relative to contingent requirements provides an online indication of safe operating conditions, including energy transfers, relative to postcontingency conditions. >

TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION OF RESPONSE DURATION IN CHILDREN OF DIFFERENT AGES: DEVELOPMENTAL CHANGES IN RELATIONS BETWEEN VERBAL AND NONVERBAL BEHAVIOR

Children aged 4.5, 7, or 11 years received an experimental session in which a contingency was placed on button-press duration. Each discrete trial was followed by a brief verbal probe asking a question about the contingency requirement. Other groups of children received an identical task followed by a postexperimental interview. Level of adaptation to the duration contingency tended to increase with age in subjects receiving posttrial verbal probes, but not for those who were interviewed. Eleven-year-olds in the verbal probe condition showed a strong correlation between accurate temporal differentiation and number of verbalizations relating to response duration or timing. The younger subjects, with one exception, showed no association between timing-related verbalizations (which were almost totally absent) and response duration differentiation. This developmental difference occurred even though the younger subjects verbalized after almost every trial. The results suggest that although 11-year-old children apparently produce rule-governed behavior under verbal control as adults do, the behavior of younger children may be controlled directly by reinforcement contingencies even when their verbal repertoires are highly developed.