Context Of Low Fertility Research Articles

Unintended pregnancy in a low fertility context: Insights from the national survey of Thailand

Unintended pregnancy in a low fertility context: Insights from the national survey of Thailand

Measuring the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility in low-fertility contexts: an overview of existing measures

Numerous studies aim to connect negative fertility desires and outcomes with employment conditions deemed to be uncertain. However, there is a lack of consensus about how to define, conceptualise, and measure employment uncertainty. This paper considers issues surrounding the conceptualisation of employment uncertainty. It then reviews existing measures of employment uncertainty in the context of fertility decisions. Finally, it raises considerations about their use. While some aspects of employment uncertainty are well studied, there are still gaps between theory and empirical evidence. Researchers should be aware of existing population heterogeneity, contextual factors, and model selection when considering their conceptualisation of employment uncertainty.

Access to Ovulation Tests and Strategic Timing of Intercourse in a Low Fertility Context

Access to Ovulation Tests and Strategic Timing of Intercourse in a Low Fertility Context

Heterogeneity among the never married in a low-fertility context

While there has been extensive research on trends in marriage and singlehood, few studies have examined heterogeneity among never-married individuals in a low-fertility context. As a country that has experienced a steady decline in marriage and an accompan

Gender differences in marital satisfaction across cultural contexts: does ‘knowing one’s spouse’s friends’ matter?

ABSTRACT More than three decades after Jessie Bernard’s argument on marriage is good for men, but not for women, the post-millennium marriage and family literature has largely shown that men’s reported marital satisfaction is higher than women’s across socio-cultural contexts. This study examines gender differences in marital satisfaction from a social network perspective, investigating the role of ‘known friendship network’ using cross-sectional, large-N samples in mainland China, Taiwan, and the United States. The ‘known friendship network’ concept captures the cognitive component of an individual’s perception of their knowledge of the spouse’s ‘interactive networks’ [Milardo, R. M. (1989). Theoretical and methodological issues in the identification of the social networks of spouses. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 51(1), 165–174. https://doi.org/10.2307/352377. We found that knowing more of one’s spouse’s friends enhances marital satisfaction in an incremental fashion, especially in Taiwan and the United States. The lower importance in China may reflect China’s predominantly kinship-based social networks. Regarding how ‘known friendship network’ patterns explain marital satisfaction, the United States has the least pronounced gender differences, while the gender gap is most significant in Taiwan. This study contributes to the cross-cultural literature on relationship satisfaction, social networks, and global family change. Our findings have complex implications for marital selectivity and the gendered connotations of marriage, suggesting a marital expectations mismatch among heterosexual couples in some low fertility contexts.

Fertility by parity in China in the context of changing fertility policy

The study aims to investigate the dynamics of fertility by parity of Chinese women over the past seven decades under the context of changing fertility policy. Using data from population censuses, population sample surveys, and fertility surveys in China, the study estimates China’s fertility by parity from 1949 to 2020 by adopting multiple fertility measures, including parity-specific total fertility rate, parity progression ratio, parity-progression-ratio-based total fertility rate, and cumulated cohort fertility rate, as well as the decomposition method. The study further evaluates the unique features of China’s configuration of parity-specific fertility through an international comparative analysis of some Western countries based on data from the Human Fertility Database. It shows that in China, both the rigid fertility policy of restricting the number and timing/spacing of children implemented since the early 1980s and the recent relaxation of fertility policy of gradually easing the number and timing/spacing of children have had a significant impact on fertility patterns and levels, especially for parity two. However, the effect of fertility policy relaxation in a low-fertility context has been less sustainable than the earlier rigid fertility policy that contributed to the rapid decline in fertility for second and higher orders of parity. Under the joint influence of the Confucian fertility culture, rapid socioeconomic growth, and the internalization of long-standing strict fertility policies, China has formed a unique pattern of parity-specific fertility profile compared to those of some developed societies, with a universal progression to the first birth, a very low but policy sensitive progression to the second birth, and an extremely low progression to the third birth.

Economic Downturns, Urban Growth and Suburban Fertility in a Mediterranean Context

Despite the wealth of micro–macro data on short-term demographic dynamics, the impact of metropolitan growth and economic downturns on local fertility is still under-investigated in advanced economies. Recent studies in low-fertility contexts have assumed suburban birth rates as being systematically higher than urban and rural rates. This assumption (hereafter, known as the ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’) was grounded on stylized facts and spatial regularities that imply a significant role of both macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors positively influencing fertility in suburban locations. To verify such a hypothesis from a macro (contextual) perspective, the present study compares the general fertility rate of urban, suburban, and rural settlements of the Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece) at various observation years between 1860 and 2020. Long-term Athens’ growth represented a sort of ‘quasi-experiment’ for Mediterranean Europe, linking sequential urban stages and distinctive waves of economic expansion and recession. Using multivariate exploratory analysis and global/local econometric models, a dominant ‘rural’ fertility regime was recorded for 1860 and 1884. A characteristic ‘urban’ fertility regime was, instead, found over a relatively long, intermediate period between 1956 and 1990. Higher fertility in suburban settlements (10 km away from downtown Athens, on average) was, finally, observed since 2000. Considering a sufficiently long-time interval, the existence of multiple fertility regimes along the distance gradient has demonstrated how fertility dynamics are intrinsically bonded with metropolitan growth, economic downturns, and social transformations in Mediterranean Europe.

Group Normative Propensities, Societal Positioning, and Childbearing: Ethno-linguistic Variation in Completed and Desired Fertility in Transitional Central Asia

Considerable research in western, low-fertility contexts has examined minority-vs.-majority fertility differentials, typically focusing on minority groups’ cultural idiosyncrasies and on socioeconomic disadvantages associated with minority status. However, the formation and functioning of ethnic complexities outside the western world often diverge from the standard western model and so may their impact on fertility preferences, behavior, and outcomes. We expand on the previous research by analyzing ethnic variation in completed and desired fertility in the multiethnic transitional setting of Kyrgyzstan, where ethnic groups and their ethnolinguistic sub-parts are characterized by both different stages of the demographic transition and different positioning in the socioeconomic and political hierarchies. Using combined data from two rounds of a nationally representative survey, we find that ethnic-specific levels of completed fertility generally align with culturally shaped group-level normative propensities. In contrast, in desires to have a(nother) child, the ranking of the ethnic segments is more reflective of their collective societal positioning, with more disadvantaged segments having lower fertility desires, regardless of actual number of children and various other characteristics. We also find that ethnic homophily of respondents’ social milieu and their optimism about the future of their ethnic group are positively associated with fertility desires, even though these associations are more potently present among women, compared to men. We relate our findings to the extant scholarship and reflect on their implications for a better understanding of ethno-racial fertility dynamics and differentials in transitional contexts.

Continuity and changes in attitudes toward marriage in contemporary Taiwan

Research on marriage values bears crucial policy implications in a low-fertility context where obstacles to marriage are indicative of fertility barriers, particularly when non-marital births are rare. Using multiple waves of the Taiwan Social Change Survey between 1985 and 2015, this study explores the attitudinal shifts in marriage during a time of rapid social change. The findings indicate that substantial changes have taken place with regard to the institution of marriage. A cohort replacement effect, as well as intra-cohort changes, are the main drivers for the majority of changes in attitudes toward marriage. Overall, more people in the general public now believe that marriages do not necessarily bring more happiness and satisfaction to one’s life. More of them increasingly believe that conventional norms imposed on married couples, and women in particular, should be relaxed. These include norms about living arrangements, in-law relationships, divorce, and the importance of childbearing. However, preferences for marital births have changed little, and more people in the 2010s endorse the notion of having at least one son to continue the family lineage, than in the 1990s. These seemingly paradoxical patterns of value liberalisation and traditional fertility preferences, along with rising female autonomy, could make the “marriage package” seem less desirable for younger cohorts of economically independent women, leading to delayed (or even foregone) family formation.

Costly children: the motivations for parental investment in children in a low fertility context

While the literature has documented a general increase in parental investment in children, both in terms of financial and time investment, the motives for this increase remain unclear. This paper aims at shedding light on these motives by examining parents’ own narratives of their parenting experiences from the vantage point of three theoretical perspectives. In doing so, the paper brings side-by-side the goal of providing children with human and social capital to improve their future labour market prospects, the pressures on parents to conform to new societal standards of good and intensive parenting, and the experience of parenting as part of self-development. The data come from a qualitative study of middle-income parents in Canada and the USA. The results provide some support for each of these perspectives, while also revealing how they jointly help explain parents’ large investment in their children as well as the tensions and contradictions that come with it.

Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018

Fertility is a spatially non-stationary property of regional demographic systems. Despite the wealth of quantitative (micro–macro) information delineating short-term population dynamics in advanced economies, the contribution of economic downturns to local fertility has still been under-investigated along urban–rural gradients, especially in low-fertility contexts. Recent studies have assumed suburban fertility rates as systematically higher than urban and rural fertility rates. This assumption (hereafter known as the “suburban fertility hypothesis”) has been grounded on stylized facts and spatial regularities in advanced economies that reflect a significant role of both macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors that positively influence fertility in suburban locations. To test the suburban fertility hypothesis at the macro-scale, the present study compares gross fertility rates from seven regional units of the Athens metropolitan area between 1991 and 2018. A refined spatial analysis of gross fertility rates during an economic expansion (1999–2008) and recession (2009–2018) was carried out in 115 urban, suburban, and rural municipalities of the same area. Experiencing sequential waves of economic expansion and recession, Athens’ socio-demographic dynamics were considered a sort of “quasi-experiment” for Southern Europe, linking late suburbanization with the multiple impacts of (rapid) economic downturns. Compared with both urban and rural locations, a higher fertility rate in suburban municipalities (15–20 km away from downtown Athens) was observed during the study period. However, a subtle distinction was observed during the economic expansion versus the recession. In the first period, the highest birth rates were recorded in industrial locations west of Athens, hosting economically disadvantaged communities with a relatively young population structure. With the recession, the highest fertility was associated with residential and service-specialized (wealthier) locations east of Athens, attracting resident population from neighboring areas, and better responding to crisis. The results of our study document how recent urban expansion and economic downturns have intrinsically shaped fertility dynamics, with implications for urban sustainability and social cohesion of metropolitan regions.

Gender differences in years of remaining life by living arrangement among older Singaporeans.

The online version of this article contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-020-00594-3.

Impact of PM2.5 on Second Birth Intentions of China's Floating Population in a Low Fertility Context.

The total fertility rate of the Chinese population has declined dramatically over the last three decades. Research has substantiated the causal link between particulate matter (PM) and adverse health effects. However, the impact of PM on the birth intentions or fertility behavior of the childbearing population remains understudied. The paper analyzes the impact of PM2.5 concentration (a mixture of extremely small solid particles and liquid droplets found in the air) on the second birth intentions of the Chinese floating population. We used urban migrant population matching data at the prefectural level for the analysis. The unique datasets were derived from the Chinese Floating Population Dynamic Survey in 2014 administered by the National Health Commission, the National Prefecture-level City Matching Data administered by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and the air pollution index PM2.5 collected by the Green Peace Organization. The results show that PM2.5 concentration has a negative impact on the second birth intentions of the floating population. This impact exhibits marked regional heterogeneity: the desire for a second birth across migrant groups living in south China decreases if PM2.5 concentration goes up, while migrants coming from, and living in, north China show strong intentions to have a second birth despite an increase in PM2.5 concentration in northern cities. The results have direct implications for the Chinese government at various levels to play a vital role in making and implementing environmental policies on the mitigation of smog to effectively safeguard the health of individuals and communities and potentially raise China’s fertility rate.

Gender Preference and its Influence on Fertility Intention in the low-Fertility Context of Tehran, Iran

Background & aim: A number of studies have addressed the positive effects of parental gender preferences for children on fertility in Iran. However, new demographic situations have left two questions unanswered: whether parents demonstrate gender preferences for children in a modern low-fertility society and if so whether such a preference is a strong predictor of the probability of having another child. Methods: This cross-sectional survey was conducted on 450 married men and women residing in Tehran, Iran in 2014. The Data collection tool included a self-structured questionnaire entailing a demographic information form, fertility intention, and gender preference-related data. The data were analyzed in SPSS Software (version 24) using cross tabulation estimation and logistic regression. Results: 22.2% of men and 17.11% of women were reported to be in favor of having daughter, while 12.9% of men and 14% of women preferred son. Moreover, gender preference was found to have no significant effect on fertility intention. However, the women with same-sex children were 3.17 times more likely to desire another child, compared to those who have different sex composition (OR=3.178, P value= 0.000). Furthermore, the men in the age groups of ≤30 and 31-40 desired to have another child, compared to older men. Conclusion: While a preference for son is rooted in Iranian culture, a new gender preference is emerging with a strong tendency toward having a girl. However, gender preference was not a driving force in the continuation of fertility in the context of low fertility of Tehran.

Planning a family in Nairobi's informal settlements: results of a qualitative study.

Childbearing intentions among women in high-fertility contexts are usually classified into those wanting to have a baby, those wanting to 'space' a birth and those wanting to 'limit' their family size. However, evidence from Africa increasingly suggests that women's intentions are more complex than this classification suggests, and that there is fluidity in these intentions. This research explores women's accounts of their childbearing intentions and decisions in order to examine how this fluidity plays out in a low-fertility context in urban Africa. Six focus group discussions were conducted in April and May 2012 with women of reproductive age in Nairobi, Kenya. Participants were recruited using random and purposive sampling techniques. The focus group discussions had an average of seven participants each. Data were coded thematically and analysed using Nvivo software. The analysis explored the factors that women consider to be influential for childbearing and found that the health of the mother and child, costs of raising a child and relationships were commonly reported to be important. Evidence of intentions to space births and limit family size was found. However, the data also showed that there is fluidity in women's family planning intentions, driven by changes in relationships or household finances, which often result in a desire to avoid pregnancy in the present moment. The fluidity observed in women's childbearing intentions cannot be accounted for by the concepts of either 'spacing' or 'limitation' but is best explained by the concept of 'postponement'. The research reveals the need for family planning clinics to provide a full method mix, as well as high-quality counselling, to enable women to choose a method that best suits their needs.

Childbearing intentions in a low fertility context: the case of Romania

This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to find out the predictors of fertility intentions in Romania, a low-fertility country. We analyse how attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control relate to the intention to have a child among childless individuals and one-child parents. Principal axis factor analysis confirms which items proposed by the Generation and Gender Survey (GGS 2005) act as valid and reliable measures of the suggested theoretical socio-psychological factors. Four parity-specific logistic regression models are applied to evaluate the relationship between the socio-psychological factors and childbearing intentions. Social pressure emerges as the most important aspect in fertility decision-making among childless individuals and one-child parents, and positive attitudes towards childbearing are a strong component in planning for a child. This paper also underlines the importance of the region-specific factors when studying childbearing intentions: planning for the second child significantly differs among the development regions, representing the cultural and socio-economic divisions of the Romanian territory.

Internal migration and regional differences of population aging: An empirical study of 287 cities in China.

In addition to birth and death, migration is also an important factor that determines the level of population aging in different regions, especially under the current context of low fertility and low mortality in China. Drawing upon data from the fifth and sixth national population census of 287 prefecture-level cities in China, this study explored the spatial patterns of population aging and its trends from 2000 to 2010 in China. We further examined how the large-scale internal migration was related to the spatial differences and the changes of aging by using multivariate quantitative models. Findings showed that the percentage of elder cities (i.e. proportion of individuals aged 65 and above to total population is higher than 7%) increased from 50% to 90% in the total 287 cities within the decade. We also found that regional imbalances of population aging have changed since 2000 in China. The gap of aging level between East zone and the other three zones (i.e. West, Central, and North-east) has considerably narrowed down. In 2000, Eastern region had the greatest number (65) of and the largest proportion (74.7%) of elder cities among all four regions. By 2010, the proportion (87.4%) of elder cities in the eastern region was slightly lower than Central (91.4%), Western (88.2%) and North-east sectors (91.2%). Results from multivariate quantitative models showed that the regional differences of population aging appear to be affected much more by the large-scale internal migration with clear age selectivity and orientation preference than by the impact of fertility and mortality. Population aging is expected to continue in China, which will in turn exacerbate regional imbalances. Policies and implications are discussed to face the challenges that the divergent aging population may present in China.

Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique

Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability. We use fixed effects models to assess how women’s desires to stop childbearing are shaped by demographic factors, household economic conditions, and health status, controlling for constant individual characteristics. Results provide evidence that fertility desires both reflect stable underlying goals and evolve in response to individual and social circumstances.

Transition in second birth intention in a low fertility context: the case of Jiangsu, China

ABSTRACTWhen China’s decades-long one-child policy was replaced by a two-child policy, the circumstances under which women intend to have a second child become of great concern. This study examines the determinants of women’s second birth intention, as well as how the intention changes over time alongside changes in other life circumstances. Using panel data from the Jiangsu Fertility Intention and Behaviour Study (JFIBS, 2007, 2010), we find that women with more economic and familial/social resources are more likely to want a second child, while women who work in non-agriculture sectors and have higher decision-making power in the family are less inclined to have a second child. We also find that a sizeable increase of family income encourages women to upwardly revise their intention towards a desire for two children. The role of policy change on Chinese women’s second birth intention is also discussed.

The importance of job characteristics to women’s fertility intentions and behavior in Russia

We assess whether a relationship between employment conditions and fertility exists in the low-fertility context of Russia. Using multiple data sources, we study both intentions and transitions to the first and second birth. Occupational characteristics appear more related to the timing of entering parenthood than to having a second birth. Differences by occupational branch were few, but we find evidence that family-friendly job characteristics influence first and second intentions and conceptions. Attitudes toward work and family roles do not mediate this relationship. Women who change occupational branches after entering parenthood are less likely to continue childbearing. Oxana SINYAVSKAYA, Researcher, Higher School of Economics, Moscow Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, Moscow, Russian Federation. E-mail: iisp.sinyavskaya@gmail.com . Sunnee BILLINGSLEY, Researcher, Stockholm University, USA. E-mail: sunnee.billingsley@sociology.su.se .