Consumer Price Research Articles

Statistical Inference of Uncertain Autoregressive Model via the Principle of Least Squares

In the study of uncertain autoregressive models, how to estimate the unknown parameters and uncertain disturbance term in the models is always a key problem. In view of this, this paper proposes a statistical inference method based on the principle of least squares to determine the unknown parameters and uncertain disturbance term in an uncertain autoregressive model, and designs a numerical algorithm to calculate the numerical solutions of the corresponding estimators. Then, the uncertain hypothesis test is used to verify the applicability of the estimated uncertain autoregressive model, and point forecast and interval forecast are also made for the time series of future moments. Finally, a case study of the Consumer Price Index for all items in U.S. cities is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach proposed in this paper.

IMPACT OF SOCIAL POLICY ON CPI IN MALAYSIA BETWEEN 2005-2023

The social policy that the government in Malaysia implemented had positive influences on the local community and economy in Malaysia as well, which focused on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the idea that the trend would change if social policy were made. A study focused on the effect of social policy specified in Malaysia’s education, health, and housing areas on CPI. This study used the quantitative method based on the model of ordinary least squares (OLS), and CPI (Y) was the dependent variable, while government education spending (X1), government health spending (X2), and government housing spending (X3) were the independent variables. According to the results of this research, it seems that there was a positive impact of social policy on the CPI, but no significant social policy that the Malaysian government implemented had a determined power over the CPI. Most country research on the impact of social policy on CPI was also insignificant, based on the previous studies. These findings found that CPI was affected by other factors apart from social policy as well and need to be studied as potential factors in the future, as there was a slight significance. To emphasize this study, ARMA is the best-suggested way to analyse the trend of CPI in Malaysia.

BIOS-01. MACHINE LEARNING-BASED PREDICTION OF INPATIENT CARE COSTS FOR PATIENTS WITH BRAIN METASTASES: A REAL-WORLD ANALYSIS

Abstract INTRODUCTION Brain metastases (BMs) are increasingly a cause of significant cancer-related morbidity, mortality, and economic burden. While BM-related healthcare costs have been previously described, predictive analytics based on contemporary cohorts, particularly for inpatient care, remain unavailable. This study sought to evaluate inpatient care costs (IPCC) and associated reimbursements for patients with BMs and perform predictive modeling through supervised machine learning (sML) using a contemporary, commercial US claims database. METHODS This retrospective study, reported following STROBE and TRIPOD+AI reporting guidelines, included adult patients (aged 18-65 years) in the United States (US) with BMs included in the MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database who received inpatient care during January 2016 to December 2021. Eligible patients were identified using ICD-10 codes. IPCC measures were adjusted using the Medical Care component of the 2023 Consumer Price Index. The primary study outcome was total IPCC, represented by adjusted gross total payments. After log-transformation performed due to data skew, sML was carried out using Random Forest algorithm with 1000 iterations with a 70:30 training-test data split, followed by residual analysis and evaluation of predictive performance using root-mean-squared error (RMSE), out-of-bag error (OOBE), and calibration curve. Multivariable linear regression was carried out for sensitivity analyses. RESULTS A total of 25117 unique inpatient admissions across 13477 BM patients were included, with median (IQR) age of 57 years (51-61). Gross median (IQR) CPI-medical-care-adjusted values per admission were: total payments $28,119.51 (16847.45-55111.67); hospital payments $24,678.74 (14601.66-47864.84); and payments to principal physician $884.80 (441.07-2434.15), being 3.6% (IQR 1.9-6.8) of total payment. Median inpatient length of stay was 4 days (IQR 2-8). ML model had an OOBE of 0.61 and, using test data, RMSE of 0.85, indicating robust performance. No major deviations were found on residual analysis. CONCLUSIONS Contemporary IPCCs for BM patients in US are substantial but driven minimally by payments to principal physician. sML may be utilized to successfully predict IPCC for BM patients.

EPID-15. INPATIENT CARE COSTS AND ASSOCIATED REIMBURSEMENTS FOR PATIENTS WITH LEPTOMENINGEAL DISEASE: A REAL-WORLD ANALYSIS

Abstract INTRODUCTION Leptomeningeal disease (LMD) is an increasingly significant cause of cancer-related morbidity, mortality, and economic burden. While healthcare costs associated with brain metastases (BMs) have been well-described, minimal economic literature exists for LMD. This study sought to evaluate inpatient care costs (IPCCs) and reimbursements for LMD patients using a contemporary US claims database. METHODS This retrospective study, reported following STROBE guidelines, included adult LMD patients (aged 18-65 years) receiving inpatient care during January 2016 to December 2021 in TruvenHealth MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database, currently the largest US commercial insurance database. Patient selection using ICD-10 codes, data management, and statistical analyses were performed in Stata/SE18.0. Demographic, clinical, and financial attributes were summarized through descriptive statistics. IPCC measures were adjusted using 2023 Consumer Price Index Medical Care component. Primary study outcome was adjusted gross total payments (total IPCC). Given skewness in IPCC, log-transformation was carried out, followed by multivariable linear regression using socio-demographic, clinical and insurance-related characteristics to identify significant covariates. RESULTS A total of 1047 inpatient admissions across 1010 LMD patients were included. 43.8% (N=442) had brain metastases (BM) concomitantly present while 56.2% (N=568) did not. Primary tumor associated with LMD comprised of: lung and/or lower respiratory tract cancer (18%), breast cancer (6.6%), and melanoma (6.1%). 54.8% (N=554) did not have any bone metastases and 78.6% (N=794) did not have any liver metastases. Per inpatient admission, median adjusted values of gross total payments were $32603.6 (IQR $19967-64960) and gross payments to principal physician $1119.26 (IQR $532.41-2919.78), being 3.4% of total payments. Covariates associated with significantly higher total IPCC included age, male sex, length -of-stay, whole brain radiotherapy, and admission year, while cancer from lung and melanoma, medical and psychiatric admission (versus surgical), and drug claims capture were associated with significantly lower IPCC. CONCLUSIONS Contemporary IPCCs for LMD patients in US are substantial but driven minimally by payments to principal physician for services rendered.

Analysis of Price Transmission Chili at the Level from Producer to Consumer in Tapin Regency

The fluctuating prices of chili peppers can significantly impact farmers positively and negatively. Farmers cultivating bird’s eye chili can reap substantial profits with high prices. However, they earn less when bird’s eye chili prices are low. Currently, market integration refers to the evolution of costs across different market sectors and the extent to which market sectors in various geographical locations are informed about the supply and demand occurring in a market. This study aims to: 1) analyze the price developments of bird’s eye chili at the producer, wholesale, and consumer levels in Tapin Regency; 2) examine the price transmission of bird’s eye chili from the producer level to the consumer level through prices at the wholesale level and the production of bird’s eye chili in Tapin Regency. The data used in this research are secondary in the form of monthly time series data. The study utilized the documentation method, with data collected from January 2017 to December 2022, totaling 72 data points. The data analysis method employed is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), with tests including the Stationarity Test, Optimal Lag Length Test, Stability Test, Cointegration Test, VECM Estimation, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The findings indicate that the prices of bird’s eye chili exhibit monthly fluctuations. The higher price fluctuations at the producer level indicate that farmers have weak bargaining power in setting the prices of bird’s eye chili. The stationarity test shows that the prices of bird’s eye chili at the consumer (HK), wholesale (HG), and producer (HP) levels, along with bird’s eye chili production (PC), are stationary at the first difference. The optimal lag test, with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), is lag 2. The cointegration test shows that the trace statistic and max-eigen values are greater than the critical value, thus accepting H1, indicating a long-term relationship. In the short term, the increase in bird’s eye chili prices is influenced by the two previous periods. The analysis results demonstrate asymmetric price transmission from the producer level to the consumer price level.

An analysis of the effects of aging society on global stock markets

PurposeThe primary purpose of this study is to explore the effects of demographic transition toward aging populations on the performance of stock market indices across various economic developments. The research aims to provide valuable insights into the life-cycle hypothesis on savings patterns, investment behavior and the potential reverberations on global financial markets.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts a comprehensive global perspective, scrutinizing the effects of aging populations on stock market indices across developed, developing and transitional economies through the panel data analysis. Using annual data spanning the period from 1991 to 2020, encompassing a sample of 10 countries from each economic development level, the study employs the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with fixed effect estimation.FindingsThe findings unveil a statistically significant positive impact of the elderly population proportion on global stock market indices. However, the magnitude and contours of this impact exhibit considerable heterogeneity across different country groups. Specifically, the study finds that while the aging population significantly influences stock market performance in developed nations, its effect is overshadowed by other economic factors, such as consumer price indices and interest rates, in developing countries and economies in transition.Originality/valueThe originality and value of this study lie in its comprehensive global perspective, which encompasses a diverse array of economies at varying developmental stages. The research contributes to an understanding of the effects of demographic transitions on stock market performance on a global scale. The insights derived from this study hold significant implications for policymakers, financial institutions and investors seeking to navigate the challenges and opportunities posed by aging societies in an increasingly interconnected global economy. Additionally, the findings highlight the need for specific strategies and policies that account for the unique economic characteristics and developmental stages of different nations.

Investigation of Inflation and Wage Dynamics in Nigeria: New Empirical Insights

The current inflationary pressure in Nigeria is eroding the purchasing power of the salaried workers and the value of the national currency with the proposition that it could worsen the welfare of the citizens despite the abject and extreme poverty that prevails in the country. The paper therefore made an empirical investigation into the inflation and wage dynamics in Nigeria. The variables were tested for unit roots using ADF tests. The unit roots shows that all the variables are non-stationary at levels except the Consumer Price Index of Transportation (CT) and Wages and Salaried Workers as Proportion of Total Employment (WSW). Employee compensation including remittances (COMP), inflation rate (INFR), WSW and Consumer Price Index of Transportation (CT) are stationary at first difference. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used in the methodology. The ARDL long-run result shows that the Consumer Price Index for Food (CF) has the highest impact on the Compensation of Employees (COMP). For every 1 percent change in COMP, CF changes by 19 percent. As INF rises, COMP falls. This is shown by the negative coefficient of INFR. The long-run result also suggests that for every 1 percent change in COMP, CT increases by 9%.The short-run dynamic model showed that a 6% fall in the lag period of inflation level led to a 1% increase in employee compensation and a one-year previous period fall of 30% in WSW, bringing about I% increase in employee compensation. The long-run model showed that the variables are co-integrated which indicates that variation in the short run will be corrected in the long run with 59% speed of adjustment. The study shows that the main drivers of inflation in Nigeria are Consumer Price Index for Food (CF) and Consumer Price Index for Transportation (CT) which directly have negative impact on Employee Compensation (COMP). In line with the above findings, It was recommended that maximum price legislature, demonetisation of currency, exercising great caution in incurring public debt, drastic reduction in government expenditure and adoption of rational wage policy can be a viable macroeconomic policy option.

Trends in Medicare Reimbursement for Gender-Affirming Procedures.

Medicare reimbursement rates are essential knowledge for gender-affirming plastic surgeons. The goal of this project was to examine trends in Medicare reimbursement rates for gender-affirming plastic surgery procedures from 2007 to 2020. Changes in reimbursement rates were measured for 35 commonly used gender-affirming procedure CPT codes from 2007 to 2020 adjusted for inflation to the 2020 US dollar value. The Unadjusted Percent Change in Consumer Price Index (CPI) was calculated using data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Reimbursement rates were adjusted for inflation using the CPI for each year. Student t test was utilized for mean comparisons. Mean percent change in reimbursement rates was +16.01% while the percent change in CPI was +27.45%. Comparison between rate change of inflation versus rate change in adjusted medical reimbursement was significantly higher in the inflation group (P < 0.0001). Inflation adjustments for the Compound Annual Growth Rate was negative (-0.76%). The adjusted total percent change was also calculated at an average of -8.97%. This is the first study evaluating trends in Medicare reimbursement rates for commonly selected gender-affirming procedures in the United States. After adjusting for inflation, Medicare reimbursement rates for all gender-affirming surgeries analyzed declined from the years 2007 to 2020 compared to expected inflation base. Increased consideration of these trends will be important for US policymakers, hospitals, and surgeons to ensure ease of access to gender-affirming care for transgender individuals.

Market transparency and consumer search—Evidence from the German retail gasoline market

AbstractWe estimate a model of incomplete information price competition where consumers endogenously choose whether to use a price search website. We examine how consumer search and prices would change under different transparency regimes. We find that aggregate consumer welfare is maximized when the price search website lists the lowest 20% of prices (i.e., one station in markets with less than five stations, and two stations in markets with more than five stations), with consumer expenditures falling by 1.5% relative to a regime where all are listed.

Implication of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on the Twin-Evil of Macroeconomic Phenomena: “With the Focus on Nigeria”

Purpose of the Study: This study was designed to analyze the implication of Macroeconomic fundamentals on twin-evil of Macroeconomic phenomena: “with the focus on Nigeria.’’ Methodology: The study Utilized annual time-series data on exogenous variables (Government Deficit Spending, GDS; Official exchange rate, OEXCHR; Monetary policy rate, MPR) to capture Macroeconomic fundamentals. While, Unemployment rate, UNEMPLR; Inflation rate, INFLR and Consumer price index, CPI were used as a summation of Macroeconomic phenomena to capture Misery index. The data on variables used in the study were sourced from Nigerian federal ministry of finance; Central Bank of Nigeria; and World Bank data bank between 1991and 2022 respectively. The study employed econometric techniques of ordinary least square and Two-stage least to analyze its data. Findings: The study of Ordinary Least Square revealed that Government deficit spending and official exchange rate significantly eradicate misery index in a positive manner. Meanwhile, monetary policy rate insignificantly eradicate misery index in a negative manner. There was also a further revelation from the findings of two-stage least square that government deficit spending and official exchange rate exert concerted significant strength to eradicate misery from every citizen of Nigeria within the periods under study.. Meanwhile, the result found that it was insignificantly weak for monetary policy rate (MPR) to minimize misery index from every Nigerian citizen within the periods under study. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The study concluded that the authority should maintain a sound policy that will oversee money borrowed for critical projects and use it to create employment opportunity for Nigerian citizenry, ensure exchange rate is kept within a certain band that will reduce high cost of goods and services in the economy that we are currently facing and jettison the idea of increasing monetary policy rate, since this displayed a negative sign to help reducing misery index of the Nigerian populace during the periods of study.

Wheat Price Dynamics in Hungary: Resilience to Shocks

This study investigates the impact of recent global disruptions, focusing on the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, on Hungary's wheat-flour supply chain, with a focus on price transmission and market integration. While much research has explored food supply chain disruptions and rising prices globally, there has been limited analysis of their effects on Central and Eastern European agricultural markets, particularly Hungary. This study fills that gap by using linear and non-linear cointegration approaches to examine price relationships along the wheat supply chain. Causality tests indicate a strong bidirectional relationship between producer and consumer prices, demonstrating a tightly integrated market. Cointegration analysis reveals a long-term equilibrium between these prices, with no significant structural breaks during either the pandemic or the Ukraine war. Despite short-term price asymmetries, the study finds that producer-level price changes are ultimately transmitted to consumer prices in the long run, offering insights into Hungary’s unique agricultural market dynamics.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation versus surgical aortic valve replacement in Chinese patients with intermediate and high surgical risk for aortic stenosis: a decision analysis on effect, affordability and cost-effectiveness

ObjectiveExamine the cost-effectiveness of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) versus surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) for Chinese patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) at intermediate and high surgical risk.DesignA two-phase model, comprising a 1-month decision tree to simulate perioperative outcomes and a 5-year Markov model with monthly cycles to simulate long-term outcomes, has been developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of TAVI compared with SAVR for Chinese patients with AS at intermediate and high risk. The event rates for both phases are sourced from the Placement of Aortic Transcatheter Valves IA and IIA trials, while the cost inputs and utility values are sourced from local sources or published literature. Adjustments for inflation were made using consumer price indexes for healthcare to enhance precision. To ensure the reliability and robustness of the model, sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess their impact on outcomes.SettingChina healthcare system perspective.ParticipantsA hypothetical cohort of Chinese patients with AS in intermediate and high surgical risk.InterventionsTAVI versus SAVR.Outcome measuresCost, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), life-years gained and incremental cost-effectiveness Ratio (ICER).ResultFor both intermediate- and high-risk AS patients, offering TAVR resulted in high healthcare costs but moderate benefits compared with SAVR. Specifically, in the intermediate-risk population, TAVR led to a 0.34 QALY increase over SAVR, with an incremental cost of $16 707.58, resulting in an ICER of $49 176.60/QALY. Similarly, in the high-risk population, TAVR showed a 0.15 QALY increase over SAVR, with an incremental cost of $18 093.52, leading to an ICER of $122 696.37/QALY. However, both ICERs exceeded the willingness-to-pay threshold of $37 654.50/QALY. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the model’s stability under parameter uncertainty.ConclusionTAVI was deemed not cost-effective compared with SAVR for patients with AS at intermediate or high surgical risk in the Chinese healthcare system. Lowering valve costs was considered an effective approach to improve the cost-effectiveness of TAVI.

Article: Redefining Global Trade: The Interplay of Geopolitics, Economic Resilience, and Sustainability?

This paper explores the shifting dynamics of global trade amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States, the European Union, and China. It traces the evolution from post-World War II American-led globalization to hyperglobalization, where China emerged as a global manufacturing powerhouse. While hyperglobalization spurred economic growth and lowered consumer prices, it also led to job losses, income inequality, and environmental degradation in developed economies.The COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing US-China trade conflict have accelerated a shift towards economic resilience and national security. The US has responded by decoupling from China, particularly in critical sectors like technology and clean energy, viewing economic policy as integral to national security. Meanwhile, the EU, though aligned with the US in geopolitical concerns, remains economically dependent on China and has adopted a more regulatory approach. The EU seeks to balance its economic ties with China by leveraging trade regulations, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), to encourage Chinese investment while promoting higher environmental and social standards.The paper also examines the increasing influence of environmental policies on trade, noting how both the US and EU are integrating sustainability into their trade frameworks. However, this trend raises concerns about the potential for environmental regulations to become trade barriers, further complicating international relations.

The Effects of money supply on Economic Growth of Laos

This research aims to analyze the effect of money supply volume on the economic growth of Lao PDR. Using secondary data annually from 2012–2022. which uses the multiple regression equation (multiple regression) with the method of least squares (OLS) to estimate the coefficients of dependent variables and independent variables, starting from checking the properties of the unit root data using the Augmented Dick Fuller test statistic method to test the data. Through checking the properties of the model of external factors that affect the amount of money supply (M2), it was found that the coefficient of decision Adjusted R Square = 0.9931, which means that the independent variables Gross National Income (GNI), Exchange Rate (Exr), and Consumer Price Index (CPI) can explain the variable according to the amount of money (M2) determined up to 99.31%; the rest depends on other factors that are not included in the study. Therefore, the model of external factors that affect the amount of money M2 can be used and depends on at least one factor identified. Also, by bringing the data to test the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable in the long term and in the short term, ECM(-1) found that the model that simulates the effect of the amount of money M2 on the economic growth of the Lao PDR in the long-term equilibrium state (co-integration) and in the short-term equilibrium state (Error Correction Model: ECM) is not applicable and does not depend on the identified factors. But it will have a long-term effect, which, through checking the properties of the model from a long-term perspective, found that the coefficient of decision Adjusted R Square = 0.6877, which means that the independent variable M2 money can explain the variable according to the economic growth rate determined in the long term up to 68.77%. The change in the money M2 in the short term does not affect the economic growth rate of the Lao PDR, but the change in the money M2 in the long term will definitely affect the economic growth rate.

MONETARY INSTRUMENTS IN ADDRESSING ECONOMIC CRISES: EFFECTIVENESS AND CHALLENGES

This article aims to investigate the anti-crisis reforms of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States during the global financial crisis, the pandemic period, and the worsening of the military conflict in Ukraine. The study showed a significant decline in inflation due to the reduced demand for goods and services in the first two crises. Under these conditions, the Fed needed unprecedented measures to soften its policy. Repo rates fell to their lowest level during the 2008 crisis but rose during the pandemic, indicating a significant demand for these instruments to ensure stability. Since the 2008 crisis and pandemic, the easing policy has led to an increase in Fed assets. This has significant implications for the ability of monetary policy to respond to today's challenges and has led to the need for very careful control of assets. But in 2022, the Fed had to take measures to curb inflationary trends, in particular raising the discount rate.The regression analysis carried out in the article demonstrates a significant impact of monetary instruments on the consumer price index, which indicates the effectiveness of those methods used by the Fed. The article analyzes the use of traditional and non-traditional monetary policy tools of the Fed in different economic conditions and the possible risks and negative consequences of the use of non-traditional tools, such as quantitative easing and very low interest rates. Although these techniques can support the economy in a crisis, their risks need to be taken into account. The findings contribute to the knowledge of monetary policy as a management tool and provide stakeholders with valuable insights for future strategizing.

Unveiling the Nexus of Consumer Price Index, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risks, and Gold Prices on Indonesian Sustainable Stock Market Performance

This study contributes to evaluate capital market performances categorized as sustainable stocks in Indonesia. The aim of the proposed model is to examine the impact of the Consumer Price Index, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, and Global Gold Prices on the SRI-KEHATI Index. The study will cover the study period from January 2017 to December 2022. The ARDL approach is employed to see impacts in both long-term and short-term. The findings indicate that in the short run, the variables Consumer Price Index and Geopolitical Risk have a notable positive impact on the SRI-KEHATI Index, while World Gold Prices have a substantial negative impact. However, the variable Economic Policy Uncertainty does not have a significant effect on the SRI-KEHATI Index. In addition, over an extended period of time, the variables of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk exhibit a notable and constructive impact on the SRI-KEHATI Index. Compared to the long-term impact of the Consumer Price Index on Gold Prices is negligible.

The relationship between silver prices and consumer price index: Evidence on China market

This study examines the relationship between Chinese silver prices and inflation to help investors predict inflation in China and hedge risks during inflationary periods. This article constructs a regression model using the least squares method with silver price as the independent variable, consumer price index (CPI) as the dependent variable, and gold price as the control variable. According to the regression model, the research results indicate that in China, inflation risk cannot be predicted by the price of silver, and even investors cannot hedge their risk with silver during inflation periods. On the contrary, as a traditional precious metal, gold can predict inflation and provide hedging during this period. Based on these findings, this article suggests that Chinese investors should pay attention to the hedging differences between precious metals and make correct investment strategies based on the impact of silver and gold prices on inflation to cope with China’s growing inflation risk.

Modelling the Relationship Between Merchandise Trade Flows and Some Macroeconomic Variables in Ghana

Macroeconomic variables serve as economic indicators that offer valuable insights into the overall health and stability of an economy. Changes in these variables can have significant impacts on a country&amp;apos;s trade balance and overall economic performance. This study employed multivariate time series analysis to study the relationship between Merchandise Trade Flows (MTF), Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), Commercial Lending Rate (CLR), Nominal Growth Rate (NGR) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) with Money Supply (MoS) as exogenous variable. The nature of trend in each series was investigated. The results revealed that quadratic trend model best models MTF, MPR, CLR and NGR whiles an exponential trend best models CPI. Johansen’s co-integration test with unrestricted trend performed revealed the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships between the variables and three (3) co-integrating equations described this long-run relationship. In terms of short-run relationships, the VEC (2) model revealed that, CLR, NGR, MoS have positive and significant impact on MTF. CLR, NGR and MoS have positive and significant impact on MPR, NGR have positive and significant impact on CLR, CPI and MoS have significant impact on NGR whiles NGR and MoS have significant impact on CPI. Model diagnostics performed on the VEC (2) model showed that, all the model parameters are structurally stable over time and the residuals of the individual models are free from serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity. Forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) analysis showed that each variable primarily explained its own variance and the influence of other variables increase over time. Hence, adopting a broad perspective on macroeconomic variables can help policymakers anticipate and mitigate ripple effects across various economic sectors.

Driving Forces of the Consumer Price Index During the Crises in the Eurozone: Heterogeneous Panel Approach

This paper examines key driving forces of inflationary pressures, taking into account supply and demand side determinants and actions of policy makers, during the pandemic and geopolitical crises in the Eurozone. Using heterogeneous nonstationary macro-panel models, especially the Mean Group (MG) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) methods in the period 2020q1–2024q4, it is concluded that the dominant determination of inflationary pressures comes from the supply side. There is a long-run positive equilibrium relationship between the growth of energy prices and the growth of the consumer price index (CPI), and between the index representing supply bottlenecks (SBI) and the growth of CPI, while the relationship with the unemployment rate is insignificant. Also, the existence of a long-run equilibrium between the interest rate and CPI is homogeneous due to the unique monetary policy on a sample, and negative, indicating the efficiency of that policy. However, the speed of adjustment of individual economies is heterogeneous, and in the case of Greece and Ireland, insignificant. The heterogeneous or insignificant response of Eurozone member states, especially related to core-periphery asymmetry, refers to the vulnerability and structural weakness of the Eurozone economies, and the need for deeper integration.

Influence of hospital ownership on patient outcomes in STEMI-induced cardiogenic shock undergoing revascularization: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract Background Investor-owned hospitals constitute an expanding segment of healthcare enterprises that frequently eschew the provision of non-profitable services. The implications of this disparity in costs on the mortality rates of patients experiencing cardiogenic shock (CS) subsequent to ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents (DES) or bare-metal stents (BMS) remain unknown. Methods In this retrospective analysis, data from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) were examined, including acute care admissions for patients aged 18 years and above admitted due to cardiogenic shock secondary to ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the placement of either drug-eluting stents (DES) or bare-metal stents (BMS) between 2016 and 2020. Multivariable logistic regression, multilinear regression, chi-square tests, and t-tests were used to compare mortality rates, length of stay (LOS), and healthcare costs, adjusting for potential confounders. The total charges were adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to ensure consistency in financial evaluations. Results We analyzed 66,180 patients and divided them into two cohorts: admitted to investor-owned vs nonprofit institutions. The findings revealed no significant difference in mortality rates, with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 1.03 (P=0.60; 95% CI: 0.91-1.16). However, treatment in investor-owned hospitals was associated with significantly higher healthcare costs, with a coefficient of 120,921 (P&amp;lt;0.001; 95% CI: 106,658.6–135,184.7), but without a significant difference in length of stay (LOS) (coefficient 0.04; P=0.81; 95% CI: -0.33 to 0.41). Key predictors of mortality included age, with each additional year increasing the odds of mortality by 3% (P&amp;lt;0.001; 95% CI: 1.02-1.03), and uninsured status, which was linked to a higher mortality risk (aOR 1.40; P&amp;lt;0.001; 95% CI: 1.16-1.70). Disparities in healthcare costs were observed across different races and insurance types, notably affecting Hispanic patients and those covered by Medicaid. A significant difference was noted in the average adjusted hospital charges between non-profit and investor-owned hospitals; the average charge at investor-owned hospitals was $314,633, compared to $220,227 at non-profit hospitals (P&amp;lt;0.01), marking a net difference of $94,406. Conclusion This retrospective cohort analysis demonstrated that investor-owned hospitals incurred, on average, over $94,406 more in healthcare costs than nonprofit hospitals, with no significant difference in mortality rates and only a marginal difference in length of stay (LOS). Higher expenses at investor-owned hospitals did not translate into improved patient outcomes, challenging the notion that increased healthcare spending necessarily results in better healthcare delivery.