Changes In Consumer Price Index Research Articles

Lapsation Risk: Takaful Operators In Malaysia

Insurance serves as a tool for risk management. Takaful is an Islamic insurance where the concepts of mutual cooperation (ta’awun) and donation (tabarru’) are used as the main pillars. Apart from the usual market and credit risk, lapsation risk is one of the main risks faced by a life insurer. It is important to determine factors that may influence policy lapsation as it could affect the solvency and the profitability of insurance or a Takaful operator. Therefore, the relationship between surrender rates and economic variables (Unemployment Rate, Real Interest Rate, Growth Domestic Product (GDP), Inflation - Annual % change in Consumer Price Index and Stock Market Price Index (%) ) were examined for Takaful operator ordinary life and unit investment link products. Out of sample forecast was performed for 2019 to 2020 surrender rates for Takaful operator ordinary life and unit investment link products. Panel data model was applied for both purposes as the method is viable to overcome small sample size issue. The empirical findings revealed that the economic variable displayed a different impact on the surrender rate for both products. Both ordinary life and investment linked products exhibited a significant relationship between unemployment rate and surrender rate; in which higher unemployment rate led to increased surrender rate. Stock also had a statistically significant impact on the surrender rate of both products. Meanwhile, interest rate had an insignificant link with the surrender rate of both products. This outcome is in agreement with several past studies that reported no real relationship between interest rate and surrender rate; thus disregarding the infamous interest rate hypothesis. Lastly, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) displayed an insignificant correlation with the surrender rate of both products. By using Pool OLS model, the trend for ordinary life product decreased in 2020 for all Takaful operators. As for investment linked products, a decreasing trend was noted from 2019 to 2020; the lowest and the highest forecast rates in 2019 were ascribed to Takaful Ikhlas and Takaful Malaysia, respectively.

The consumer price index prediction using machine learning approaches: Evidence from the United States

The consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators for determining inflation, and accurate predictions of CPI changes are important for a country's economic development. This study uses multivariate linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to predict the CPI of the United States. Data from January 2017 to February 2022 were randomly selected and divided into two stages: 80 % for training and 20% for testing. The US CPI was modeled for the observed period and relied on a mix of elements, including crude oil price, world gold price, and federal fund effective rate. Evaluation metrics—mean absolute percentage value, mean absolute error, root mean square error, R-squared, and correlation of determination—were employed to estimate forecasted values. The MLR, SVR, ARDL, and MARS models attained high accuracy parameters, while the MARS algorithm generated higher accuracy in US CPI forecasts than the others in the testing phase. These outputs could support the US government in overseeing economic policies, sectors, and social security, thereby boosting national economic development.

How do socially responsible investment and macroeconomic indicators interact with each other The case of selected developing countries

Purpose- Sustainability is a multidimensional concept that expresses not only sensitivity to environmental policies, biodiversity and climate change, but also corporate governance principles and human rights. Accordingly, socially responsible investment is a kind of investment considering not only financial criteria but also environmental, social and corporate governance factors as well. In today's world, both the increase in social chaos, disasters and epidemics all over the world reveal the importance of addressing the issue of sustainability at the institutional and even governmental level and taking urgent action. In this context, sustainability indices have been created in many international stock markets since the end of the 1990s, which are created according to various criteria. These indices follow the companies that comply with the concept of sustainability. Today, many developing country stock markets also have sustainability indices. In this study, the interaction between the change in the sustainability index and macroeconomic indicators in developing countries was examined in order to be able to set forth the significance of the impact level of sustainability on the economy in the developing countries. Methodology- Within the scope of the subject, the importance of adapting to sustainability in the developing countries and the activities carried out are also discussed. Within the analysis, the annual percentage change in the sustainability index in seven selected developing countries and macroeconomic indicators such as change in consumer price index and change in dollar-based exchange rates were examined for the period of 2015-2022 by the panel data methodology. Findings- According to the findings, the impacts of changes in exchange rates and consumer price index on the sustainability indices are statistically significant. While exchange rates have negative effect, consumer price indices have positive effect on the sustainability indices. Conclusion- Findings are expected to reveal the supportability and importance of sustainability in the developing countries and shed light for future research that this issue needs and worth to be investigated more deeply. Keywords: Sustainability, socially responsible investment, macroeconomic indicators, developing countries, panel data. JEL Codes: C23, G15, Q50

An Integrated Analysis of Recent Changes in Year-on-Year Consumer Price Index and Aggregate Import Price Index in Republic of Korea through Statistical Inference

Purpose - Our previous study (Chang & Lee, 2023) presented observations on the recent changes in the year-on-year (YoY) Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the Republic of Korea (ROK) after the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this article is to present an integrated analysis and interpretation of the recent changes in CPI and the Aggregate Import Price Index (IPI) by incorporating recent data, specifically data from September 2022 to December 2022.
 Design/methodology/approach - This study collected CPI (YoY) data in the ROK from January 2019 to December 2022 using e-National Indicator System provided by the ROK. Statistical analysis was employed to analyze the data.
 Findings - First, we confirm the extended results of the existing study by Chang and Lee (2023). Second, we demonstrate that the Aggregate IPI in ROK increased significantly in 2022 compared to 2021. We then provide an integrated interpretation on the significant increase in CPI and aggregate IPI in ROK, which complements Chang and Lee (2023) that limits their discussion to YoY CPI. Moreover, we show that the IPI of the semiconductor in ROK decreased significantly in 2022 compared to 2021.
 Research implications or Originality - Our results provide important insights into the recent changes in the CPI in the ROK. The results suggest that these changes can be partially attributed to various factors, such as the global supply chain disruptions resulting from the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine, the side effect of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve, heat waves and droughts caused by climate change in ROK, a surge in demand following a gradual daily recovery, US-China trade conflict, etc. Our study shows statistically comprehensive results compared to the studies that limit their discussion to YoY average growth rate.

The interaction between socially responsible investment and macroeconomic indicators in the developing countries

Purpose- The purpose of this study is to examine the interaction between the change in the sustainability index and macroeconomic indicators in developing countries in order to be able to set forth the significance of the impact level of economic conditions on sustainability in the developing countries. Sustainability is a multidimensional concept that expresses not only sensitivity to environmental policies, biodiversity and climate change, but also corporate governance principles and human rights. Accordingly, socially responsible investment is a kind of investment considering not only financial criteria but also environmental, social and corporate governance factors as well. In today's world, both the increase in social chaos, disasters and epidemics all over the world reveal the importance of addressing the issue of sustainability at the institutional and even governmental level and taking urgent action. In this context, sustainability indices have been created in many international stock markets since the end of the 1990s, which are created according to various criteria. These indices follow the companies that comply with the concept of sustainability. Today, many developing country stock markets also have sustainability indices. Methodology- The study employs panel data obtained from 7 developing countries, namely Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Türkiye for the period of 2015-2022. As the indicator of sustainability, annual percentage change in sustainability index of the related country is taken into consideration. Selected macroeconomic variables are economic growth, change in consumer price index, change in dollar based exchange rates and the ratio of current account balance-GDP. Within the scope of the subject, the importance of adapting to sustainability in the developing countries and the activities carried out are also discussed. Findings- The analysis reveals that only changes in exchange rates and consumer price index have statistically significant effect on the change in sustainability index. Accordingly, while increases in exchange rates have negative effects, increases in consumer price index have positive effect on the sustainability index. Conclusion- Despite the fact that countries have started to provide sustainability indices within their stock exchanges quite recently, and hence analysis had to be conducted by limited data, this study is expected to be among the first studies aiming to set forth the interaction between sustainability and macroeconomic conditions. Hence, this study is expected to make a significant contribution in the existing literature. Based upon the analyisis, it may be concluded that the policies should be implemented so as to compensate the negative effects of exchange rates. Furthermore, it should also be analysed more closely what the components behind inflation affecting sustainability in the selected countries, and the trigger behind these findings are. Keywords: Sustainability, socially responsible investment, macroeconomic indicators, developing countries, panel data. JEL Codes: C23, G15, Q50

Modified Kuppuswamy socioeconomic scale: 2022 update of India

The term "socioeconomic status" (SES) refers to a measurement that takes into account a family's income, level of education, and the occupation of the family's primary breadwinner. This helps to evaluate the family overall health as well as their access to resources. Kuppuswamy SES is one of the commonest scales used to determine SES of people residing in urban areas, but it requires updating because of steady inflation in the value of rupees based on change in consumer price index. The updated version of modified Kuppuswamy socioeconomic scale for the year 2022 in India is thus presented.

Assessing the effect of new data sources on the consumer price index: a deterministic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity

Abstract One of the greatest challenges facing official statistics in the 21st century is the use of alternative sources of data about prices (scanned and scraped data) in the analysis of price dynamics, which also involves selecting the appropriate formula of the price index at the elementary group (5-digit) level. When consumer price indices of goods and services are constructed, a number of subjective decisions are made at different stages, e.g. regarding the choice of data sources and types of indices used for the purpose of estimation. All of these decisions can affect the bias of consumer price indices, i.e. the extent to which they contribute to the overall uncertainty about the resulting index values. By measuring how robust consumer price indices are, one can assess the impact that the decisions made at the different stages of index construction have on the index values. This assessment involves analysing uncertainty and sensitivity. The purpose of the study described in the article was to determine how much and in which direction the consumer price index changes when including scanner and scraped data in the analysis, in addition to the data on prices collected by enumerators. The impact of these new data sources was assessed by analysing uncertainty and sensitivity under the deterministic approach. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is a novel application of robustness analysis to measure inflation using new data sources. The empirical study was based on data for February and March 2021, while scanner and scraped data about selected categories of food products were obtained from one retail chain operating hundreds of points of sale in Poland and selling products online. It was found that the choice of a data source has the most significant impact on the final value of the index at the elementary group level, while the choice of the aggregation formula used to consolidate different data sources is of secondary importance.

Valutna klauzula - ekonomsko-finansijske posledice

For years now, Serbia de facto lives in a dual currency system. Local currency is being used for most of the transactions with relatively small amounts. Alongside with that, local currency is being used as a formal means of payment for transaction accounted in Euros, i.e. with FX clause. FX clause is being used to express prices in real sector (goods, services, real estate, salaries, rents), but also for lending and repayment purposes in financial sector. FX clause, from theoretical perspective, would make sense as means of controlling the risk of FX rate movement in future, but only for agents with FX inputs, i.e. expenditures. However, mainly due to high inflation and hyperinflation heritage, FX clause is being used often and basically wrong, as an instrument to control risk of loss of purchasing power due to inflation. For this purpose it would be appropriate to use indexing for changes in Consumer Price Index, as a measure of inflation, and not indexing for changes in FX rate, i.e. FX clause. This because inflation and movement in FX rate do not have to be, and in most cases are not, perfectly correlated. Despite this, FX clause is widespread in use in both real and financial sectors. This paper is analyzing negative economic and financial consequences of widespread FX clause usage for an overall economic system of a country.

UNDERSTANDING INDONESIA’S CITY-LEVEL CONSUMER PRICE FORMATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRICE STABILITY

Using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data of 82 Indonesian cities, we propose thehypothesis of heterogeneity in the cities’ contribution to the aggregate IndonesianCPI. Using a price discovery model fitted to monthly data, we discover that (1) of the23 cities in the province of Sumatera, five contribute 44% and nine contribute 66.7%to price changes, and (2) of the 26 cities in Java, four alone contribute 41.6% to pricechanges. Even in smaller provinces, such as Bali and Nusa Tenggara, one city alonedominates the change in aggregate CPI. From these results, we draw implications formaintaining price stability.

Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Menurut Kelompok Pengeluaran Nasional Tahun 2018

The Consumer Price Index is an important indicator of the financial market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index number that describes changes in prices of goods and services consumed by the public in general for a certain period with a predetermined time period. National expenditure according to CPI is divided into four sub-groups, namely the first general sub-group, the second sub-group of foodstuffs the third sub-group of processed foods, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco and fourth sub-group housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel development CPI 2018, every month from January to December tends to increase. Changes in CPI can describe the rate of increase (inflation) or the rate of decline (deflation) of goods or services. CPI can be regarded as a very important economic indicator and is used to represent changes in the average retail price level at the consumer level for a number of certain types of goods and services. The rise in the CPI can lead to an increase in interest rates, increase in money supply growth, increase the attractiveness of currencies, and increase inflation.

Determinants of Inflation in Kuwait1

Despite the ability to determine whether an economy is experiencing inflation, there is no consensus on what causes it. In this study, the attempt will be made to identify the determinants of inflation in Kuwait. Kuwait was chosen on the grounds that it is a small rich country with significant surplus of money and highly dependent on oil revenues and imports of goods and services. In addition, it experiences little fluctuations in the value of its currency. Furthermore, Kuwait runs two competing banking systems: Islamic and conventional. While the Islamic banking system excludes paying or receiving interest from all its transactions, interest governs all transactions incurred by the conventional banking system. Hence, Kuwait forms a unique case to study causes of inflation. Hence, the current study examines whether inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is effected by exchange rate, interest rate, taxation, imports, current account, unemployment, gross domestic product (GDP), and money supply. To identify variables affecting the level of inflation in Kuwait, annual data were collected from the World Bank Data Bank for the period between 1979-2015. The relationship between inflation and other economic variables were tested by performing a multiple linear regression analysis. The findings of the study demonstrated that changes in CPI are positively and significantly influenced by changes in interest rate spreads, imports of goods and services and money supply. Negative and significant association appeared between changes in the CPI and changes in tax revenue and current account balance. Although changes in the GDP and unemployment were among the factors that were responsible for changes in CPI, their effects were not statistically significant. Studying the determinants of inflation in Kuwait is of interest for scholars and policy makers alike. For the former, studying a rich and a small country like Kuwait with surplus of liquidity would add a new dimension to the literature. For the latter, it would assist them in adopting appropriate policies to deal with future inflationary problems. Bearing in mind that this study is covering almost four economic cycles, it will give a clear picture about the reasons underlying inflation in Kuwait.

Trends in Medicare reimbursement for neurosurgical procedures: 2000 to 2018.

There is currently a paucity of literature evaluating procedural reimbursements and financial trends in neurosurgery. A comprehensive understanding of the economic trends and financial health of neurosurgery is important to ensure the sustained success and growth of the specialty moving forward. The purpose of this study was to evaluate monetary trends of the 10 most common spinal and cranial neurosurgical procedures in Medicare reimbursement rates from 2000 to 2018. The Physician Fee Schedule Look-Up Tool from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services was queried for each of the top 10 most utilized Current Procedural Terminology codes in both spinal and cranial neurosurgery, and comprehensive reimbursement data were extracted. The raw percent change in Medicare reimbursement rate from 2000 to 2018 was calculated for each procedure and averaged. This was then compared to the percent change in consumer price index over the same time. Using data adjusted for inflation, trend analysis was performed for all included procedures. Adjusted R-squared and both the average annual and the total percent change in reimbursement were calculated based on these adjusted trends for all included procedures. Likewise, the compound annual growth rate was calculated for all procedures. When all reimbursement data were adjusted for inflation, the average reimbursement for all procedures decreased by an average of 25.80% from 2000 to 2018. From 2000 to 2018, the adjusted reimbursement rate for all included procedures decreased by an average of 1.59% each year and experienced an average compound annual growth rate of -1.66%, indicating a steady annual decline in reimbursement when adjusted for inflation. This is the first study to evaluate comprehensive trends in Medicare reimbursement in neurosurgery. When adjusted for inflation, Medicare reimbursement for all included procedures has steadily decreased from 2000 to 2018, with similar rates of decline observed between cranial and spinal neurosurgery procedures. Increased awareness and consideration of these trends will be important moving forward for policy makers, hospitals, and neurosurgeons as continued progress is made to advance agreeable reimbursement models that allow for the sustained growth of neurosurgery in the United States.

DETERMINANTS OF TURKISH STOCK RETURNS UNDER THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY

This paper aims to investigate the short-run and long-run macroeconomic determinants of the Turkish stock returns under the impact of the “domestic and global economic policy uncertainty” by using the ARDL method and the monthly data for the period of 1991:M1 to 2017:M12. The set of macroeconomic variables utilized in the study are the stock market price indexes of Turkey’s BIST100 index (BIST) and the BIST industrial index (IND), industrial production index (IPI), real effective exchange rate (RER), consumer price index (CPI), interest rate (R), Geopolitical risk index for Turkey (GPR) and the Economic Policy Uncertainty index of the United States of America (EPU). The ARDL estimation results reveal that in the short-run the BIST stock returns are positively affected from the changes in IPI, RER and CPI. The effects of the changes in Turkish interest rate (R), EPU and the dummy representing the impact of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis on the stock returns are negative. The long-run determinants of the BIST stock returns are the changes in IPI, RER, and CPI and the EPU. The effect of the changes in the EPU on the stock returns is negative and the effect of the other variables are positive.

CPI, money supply and exchange rate dynamıcs in Turkey: a VECM approach

Purpose- The aim of this study is to outline the relationship between The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Money Supply (M3) and The Exchange Rates (EXC) in Turkey. Methodology- The data were gathered from The Turkish Statistical Instittute and The Central Bank which covers the monthly period between 2005/1 and 2017/12 and were taken on their own levels where an error correction model was utilized to reveal both the long and short run relationships. Findings- The results revealed that 100 billion TL rise in M3 is accompanied by 19 points increase in the CPI and 1TL depreciation of local currency (appreciation of $) leads to 82.9 points upswing in CPI. Conclusion- The Cointegrating equation revealed that there was a significant long-run relationship between CPI, Money Supply and Exchange Rates. Moreover changes in M3 and EXC together cause changes in CPI at .10 significance level. Money Supply endogeneity was also observed at the 10 level.

Vietnam s stock market volatility under macroeconomic impacts

Purpose - This study investigates whether the volatility of stock market returns is determined by macroeconomic variables either as individual or as a group, within the context of Vietnam – a frontier emerging market. Six macroeconomic factors have been selected, including economic growth (GDP), consumer price index (CPI), broad money supply (M2), interest rate (represented by refinancing rate – FR), foreign exchange rate USD/VND (EX), and foreign direct investment (FDI). Methodology - Using 161 monthly observations collected from August 2000 to December 2013, the paper employs general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) framework to measure stock market volatility as well as to estimate this volatility under indicated macroeconomic impacts. Findings - Taking the volatility clustering into account, the GARCH (1,1) models reveal that the volatility of Vietnam’s stock market returns is highly persistent, suggesting a long memory of the volatility in response of a shock. Additionally, the stock market volatility could be predicted better using previous shocks (i.e. those originating from GDP, CPI and EX) rather than the previous volatility itself. Conclusion - The prediction of Vietnam’s stock market volatility could be better based on the selected macroeconomic indicators. A monthly change in consumer price index appears as the most essential indicator that help predicting the volatility of the Vietnam’s stock market. Any news about economic growth can be considered as the second significant factor in explaining Vietnam stock return volatility. Furthermore, the univariate analysis shows a statistical significant evidence for the impact of a change in the exchange rate (USD/VNA) on Vietnam’s stock market volatility.

Quest for a Valid Phillips Curve in the Long Run: An Empirical Approach

This paper examines the relationship between inflation rate (percentage change in consumer price index) and unemployment rate (number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labor force) by using modern econometric approach to find a “Phillips Curve”. Using US data of both monthly and yearly frequency, the paper finds the existence of a long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. A linear form of the Phillips curve is estimated for the USA using ordinary least squares estimation (OLS). The co integration test shows the long run relation between the variables. This contradicts the theory that in long run the Phillips curve should be vertical. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the Phillips Curve fits the data well; (b) inflation of previous year influences the present rate of inflation and (c) both monthly data and yearly data support the existence of Phillips curve in the long run

An Investigation into the Crude Oil Price Pass-Through to the Macroeconomic Activities of Malaysia

This study examines the pass-through of crude oil prices (CP) into economic activities of Malaysia including industrial production index (IP), consumer price index (CPI), real effective exchange rate (REER), interest rate (IR) and stock price index (SPI) within the framework of hidden cointegration technique over the quarterly data ranging from 1987 to 2013. The estimated results suggest that positive and negative changes of IP, CPI, REER, IR and SPI do not maintain a long-run association with positive as well as negative changes of real CP. Although the negative changes in CPI, negative changes in IP and negative changes in REER are found to be cointegrated with the positive changes of CP the estimated signs of the error correcting terms do not provide enough evidence to support this provision.

Canonical correlation analysis

Purpose– The purpose of this paper was to construct a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model for the Zimbabwe stock exchange (ZSE). This paper analyses the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns for the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange using the canonical correlation analysis (CCA).Design/methodology/approach– Data for the independent (macroeconomic) variables and dependent variables (stock returns) were extracted from secondary sources for the period from January 1990 to December 2008. For each variable, 132 sets of data were collected. Eight top trading companies at the ZSE were selected, and their monthly stock returns were calculated using monthly stock prices. The independent variables include: consumer price index, money supply, treasury bills, exchange rate, unemployment, mining and industrial index. The CCA was used to construct the CCA model for the ZSE.Findings– Maximization of stock returns at the ZSE is mostly influenced by the changes in consumer price index, money supply, exchange rate and treasury bills. The four macroeconomic variables greatly affect the movement of stock prices which, in turn, affect stock returns. The stock returns for Hwange, Barclays, Falcon, Ariston, Border, Caps and Bindura were significant in forming the CCA model.Research limitations/implications– During the research period, some companies delisted due to economic hardships, and this reduced the sample size for stock returns for respective companies.Practical implications– The results from this research can be used by policymakers, stock market regulators and the government to make informed decisions when crafting economic policies for the country. The CCA model enables the stakeholders to identify the macroeconomic variables that play a pivotal role in maximizing the strength of the relationship with stock returns.Social implications– Macroeconomic variables, such as consumer price index, inflation, etc., directly affect the livelihoods of the general populace. They also impact on the performance of companies. The society can monitor economic trends and make the right decisions based on the current trends of economic performance.Originality/value– This research opens a new dimension to the study of macroeconomic variables and stock returns. Most studies carried out so far in Zimbabwe zeroed in on multiple regression as the central methodology. No study has been done using the CCA as the main methodology.

What causes household debt to increase in South Africa?

The 2007–2008 US subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis that negatively affected many economies in the world and was afterwards widely referred to as the global financial crisis. Since the beginning of this financial crisis of 2008–2009, South Africa experienced a significant increase in its household debt to income ratio. In the main, this paper investigates the prominent factors contributing to the rise in the level of household debt in South Africa. Specifically, we construct a model for South African household debt through the application of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We employ quarterly time series data throughout the timeline 1985 Q1 to 2012 Q1 and all the econometric tests are analyzed using the statistical software package EViews 7. Our results confirmed the existence of a long run cointegrating relationship between household debt and other macroeconomic determinants. Increasing household debt was found to be significantly affected by positive changes in consumer price index, gross domestic product and household consumption. Also, house prices and household savings were found to positively contribute to a rise in household debt but this relationship was found to be statistically insignificant. Alternatively, household borrowing was found to be significantly and insignificantly affected by negative changes in income and prime rate, respectively. Ultimately, the existence of a long run cointegrated relationship enabled us to build an error correction model for household debt which will facilitate future forecasting.

An Investigation on the Monetary Policy and Short-term Interest Rates in Japan

We explore the intertemporal linkage between call rate changes, consumer price index (CPI) changes, and real gross domestic product (GDP) changes in Japan based on the Taylor rule of monetary policy. In our analysis, we consider two sample periods, namely, the former is before zero-interest rate policy and the latter is after it. According to our empirical results, first, we find that the relations between call rate changes and GDP changes and those between call rate changes and CPI changes are weak before zero-interest rate policy. Second, we also find that after zero-interest rate policy, mutual intertemporal relations between call rate changes and GDP changes are seen as the US Taylor rule suggests, although the linkage between call rate changes and CPI changes is not seen. Hence after zero-interest rate policy, regarding call rates and GDP, the relations suggested by US Taylor rule are found in Japan.