Considerable Population Growth Research Articles

‘Here by the Sea and Sand’: Uninterrupted Hunter-Fisher-Gatherer Coastal Habitation Despite Considerable Population Growth

‘Here by the Sea and Sand’: Uninterrupted Hunter-Fisher-Gatherer Coastal Habitation Despite Considerable Population Growth

Multitemporal relative landslide exposure and risk analysis for the sustainable development of rapidly growing cities

In recent decades, developing countries have experienced an increase in the impact of natural disasters due to ongoing climate change and the sustained expansion of urban areas. The intrinsic vulnerability of settlements, due to poverty and poor governance, as well as the lack of tools for urban occupation planning and mitigation protocols, has made such impacts particularly severe. Cuenca (Ecuador) is a significant example of a city that in recent decades has experienced considerable population growth (i.e. exposure) and an associated increase in loss due to landslide occurrence. Despite such effects, updated urban planning tools are absent, so an evaluation of multitemporal exposure to landslides and related risks is required. In this perspective, a potential urban planning tool is presented based on updated data depicting the spatial distribution of landslides and their predisposing factors, as well as population change between 2010 and 2020. In addition, a multitemporal analysis accounting for changes in exposure between 2010 and 2020 and an estimation of relative landside risk was carried out. Due to the absence of spatially distributed population data, energy supply contract data have been used as a proxy of the population. The results show that the current higher exposure and related relative risk are estimated for parishes (parroquias) located in the southern sector of the study area (i.e. Turi, Santa Ana, Tarqui, Nulti, Baños and Paccha). Moreover, the exposure multitemporal analysis indicates that most parishes located in the hilly areas bounding the city centre (i.e. Sayausi, San Joaquin, Tarqui, Sidcay, Baños, Ricaurte, Paccha and Chiquintad) are experiencing sustained population growth and will be potentially exposed to an increased risk with a consistently growing trend. The obtained relative risk map can be considered a valuable tool for guiding land planning, land management, occupation restriction and early warning strategy adoption in the area. The methodological approach used, which accounts for landslide susceptibility and population variation through proxy data analysis, has the potential to be applied in a similar context of growing population cities in low- to mid-income countries, where data usually needed for a comprehensive landslide risk analysis are non-existing or only partially available.

Analysing Maize Plant Height Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) RGB based on Digital Surface Models (DSM)

Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the essential agricultural products in Papua Province of Indonesia, specifically in the three largest maize producing regions, namely Nabire Regency, Biak Numfor Regency and Merauke Regency, with the number of productions of 991 tons, 764 tons, and 751 tons respectively in 2015. Unfortunately, since 2016 the secondary data on food crops productivity, including maize, has not been provided yet in the provinces statistical report, due to manual estimation methods, i.e., visual estimation. On the other side, the number of populations in this Province has a slight increase, from 2.97 million people in 2012 to 3.38 million in 2019. Further, approximately 1.20 million people are employed in the agricultural sector. Considerable population growth will intensify the demand for food stock and other utilization of food crops in this region; hence, relevant research in food crops needs to be considered. One of the dominant factors in the yield potential of maize is plant height, since it is associated with fertilizer, seed, and soil treatment and predicts yield area. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the plant height, particularly maize plant based on a digital surface model (DSM) derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Red Green Blue (RGB) images. The crop was monitored during the second and third week of January 2022 and then, processed using pix4d Mapper software to produce the DSM, Digital Terrain Model (DTM), and orthomosaic. Then, the Geographical Information System (GIS) software, and an open-source software, namely Python were used to estimate the plant height. Next, the results were assessed statistically to examine the validation, the strong correlation coefficient of the estimation to the actual height that obtained from UAV and ground-based plant height data. The findings will help to support the prior decision support on estimation of maize production in Papua Province.

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Surface Urban Heat Island and Thermal Comfort Using Landsat Satellite Images between 1989 and 2019: A Case Study in Tehran

Mapping and monitoring the spatio-temporal variations of the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) and thermal comfort of metropolitan areas are vital to obtaining the necessary information about the environmental conditions and promoting sustainable cities. As the most populated city of Iran, Tehran has experienced considerable population growth and Land Cover/Land Use (LULC) changes in the last decades, which resulted in several adverse environmental issues. In this study, 68 Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 images, collected from the Google Earth Engine (GEE), were employed to map and monitor the spatio-temporal variations of LULC, SUHI, and thermal comfort of Tehran between 1989 and 2019. In this regard, planar fitting and Gaussian Surface Model (GSM) approaches were employed to map SUHIs and derive the relevant statistical values. Likewise, the thermal comfort of the city was investigated by the Urban Thermal Field Variance Index (UTFVI). The results indicated that the SUHI intensities have generally increased throughout the city by an average value of about 2.02 °C in the past three decades. The most common reasons for this unfavorable increase were the loss of vegetation cover (i.e., 34.72%) and massive urban expansions (i.e., 53.33%). Additionally, the intra-annual investigations in 2019 revealed that summer and winter, with respectively 8.28 °C and 4.37 °C, had the highest and lowest SUHI magnitudes. Furthermore, the decadal UTFVI maps revealed notable thermal comfort degradation of Tehran, by which in 2019, approximately 52.35% of the city was identified as the region with the worst environmental condition, of which 59.94% was related to human residents. Additionally, the relationships between various air pollutants and SUHI intensities were appraised, suggesting positive relationships (i.e., ranging between 0.23 and 0.43) that can be used for establishing possible two-way mitigations strategies. This study provided analyses of spatio-temporal monitoring of SUHI and UTFVI throughout Tehran that urban managers and policymakers can consider for adaption and sustainable development.

The Impact Influence of Highway Bridge due to Moving Vehicles

In recent years, rapid urbanization associated with considerable urban population growth has placed significant demands on urban transport infrastructure. As a result, more and more elevated highways, usually long piers, have been erected in urban platforms to ease urban traffic pressures. However, the high traffic volume of such highway bridges can cause significant vibration. To study the effects of vibration caused by bridge traffic, this study monitored the acceleration due to moving vehicles of an isolated bridge for 24 hours. The fast Fourier transform method and the system implementation method are then used to analyse the acceleration measurements and thus to calibrate the system parameters of the bridge and the building. Besides, the displacement from the deck to the pier and the deck acceleration were measured to investigate how vehicle transport affects the structural performance of the deck and pier. The results can be used as a reference for improving vibration problems caused by bridge traffic in the future.

Assessment of Landuse and Landcover Changes and its Implications to Flooding Along Omambala Flood Plain, Anambra State

This paper assessed the landuse and landcover changes and its implications to flooding along Omambala floodplain in Anambra State. The paper aimed at identifying the landuse and landcover types in Omambala floodplain in relations to their temporal dynamics, the extent of landuse change and its implication to recurring incidence of flood disaster in the study area over a period of 20 years starting from the year 1998 to 2018. Multi-temporal Landsat TM and ETM+ imageries were obtained at 10 years interval; 1998; 2008 and 2018 to observe the pattern of landuse and landcover along the floodplain over the period of study. Population data of study area were obtained from National Population Commission on four time paints as to understand the rate of land conversion and modification of the floodplain. Visual interpretation method was used to map landuse and landcover into five classes namely: waterbody; built-up; sparse vegetation; bare surface and dense vegetation. The result of the analysis of the imageries showed a considerable change in the pattern of landuse and landcover classes within the period under study. There was also a considerable population growth leading to progressive conversion of natural vegetation to other human activities with Built-up lands sparse vegetation and bare surface on the increase as well as their attendant consequences. However, the study concluded that various anthropogenic landuse activities especially poor farming system leading to increasing sparse vegetation, bare surface and built-up area are major factors that affects natural vegetation thereby worsening the incidence of flooding in the study area. The research therefore recommends relocation of settlements, greening of space already turning bare, effective floodplain management and continues monitoring of changes on land characters to ensure environmental sustainability and to forestall recurring incidence of flooding along the floodplain.

Resource intensification and zooarchaeological record in the southern margins of pre-Hispanic Andean agriculture

Central Western Argentina is an area archeologically defined as one of the southernmost limits of farming in the pre-Hispanic Americas. Optimal foraging models help to predict important changes in faunal use prior to the adoption of agriculture related to resource depression and environmental changes. This paper evaluates changes in pre-Hispanic human subsistence from a zooarchaeological perspective and explores archeological record trends from the northern area of Central Western Argentina. Using zooarchaeological information in Northern Mendoza (Central Western Argentina), trends related to the human exploitation of faunal resources were explored in connection with time and space. Two high-ranked resource indexes were calculated: the artiodactyl index and a high-ranked resources index. The results show a decrease in the dependence on high-ranked resources by human groups after ca. 2000 bp and an increase in richness, indicating a diet breath expansion. Long-term trends in the density of radiocarbon dates suggest a considerable population growth after ca. 2000 bp. These trends are consistent with the contemporary changes reported by other archaeological proxies in Northern Mendoza. The results of the zooarchaeological analysis confirm changes in human organization around 2000 years bp that reflect an intensification process.

Fever tree woodlands at risk from intensification of land management activities associated with human and wildlife utilization

Losses of acacia woodlands have been reported throughout eastern and southern Africa. Of particular concern is the loss of fever tree (Vachellia xanthophloea) woodlands along the riparian areas of lakes which may result in the loss of important terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem services. For example, the Lake Naivasha basin in Kenya has endured considerable population growth and associated changes in land management with potential consequences for fever tree woodlands. This study assessed how fever tree woodland integrity differed with varying degrees of human and wildlife disturbances among surrounding land use management types. A field survey of fever tree woodlands suggest that land management types influenced degrees of human and wildlife disturbances, with settlement areas having significantly more human disturbance and conservation areas having significantly more wildlife disturbance. Furthermore, while land management type did not significantly influence the stem sizes of fever trees, it did influence the condition of woodland crown and ground covers. Settlement areas with high human disturbance were correlated with healthier crown covers (a possible artifact of the removal of dead or dying crown for fuelwood) while conservation areas with high wildlife disturbance were correlated with less healthy crown covers in smaller trees (<45 cm diameter at breast height) that were not killed but stunted by wildlife browsing. Settlement areas were dominated by more but less diverse ground cover while conservation areas were correlated with less but more diverse ground cover. While fever trees show resilience to multiple disturbances, the early warning of changes to the woodlands imply that the future of the fever tree woodlands is at risk and that limits to the encroachment of land management activities into the fever tree woodlands should be established.

Weaning process and subadult diets in a monumental Brazilian shellmound

Studies on settlement patterns suggested that the fisher-hunter-gatherers who constructed the shellmounds (or sambaquis) scattered along the Brazilian Southeastern coast must have experienced considerable population growth by living in rich coastal settings. In this paper we assess, using stable isotopes, the weaning patterns and subadult diets of the sambaqui Jabuticabeira II (1214–830 cal BC to 118–413 cal AD) to test: 1) if weaning strategies are compatible with scenarios of high population density and 2) if there are evidences of dietary sex differences and sex-biased parental investment. Stable isotope data (δ15N, δ13Ccol, and δ13Cap) of 106 samples from 60 individuals (adults and subadults) were analyzed by combining bone cross-sectional and tooth serial-sectioning approaches to simulate a longitudinal study. Various analytical methods were used to describe weaning processes by identifying age-related changes in the diet of juveniles compared to those of adults. The isotopic results show that although exclusive breastfeeding length is variable, the introduction of a supplementary diet occurs around 6 months of age, whereas complete weaning was achieved for most children at approximately 2–3 years of age (more probably ~2.3 years of age). Little variability was observed in weaning and post-weaning diets. Differences between adult males and females suggest sex-biased dietary peculiarities. However, no clear cut difference in parental investment strategies favoring boys could be found. Because a weaning completion age of 2.3 years (and the presumed inter-birth interval that corresponds to) can be associated with slow to moderate growth, our reconstruction of weaning patterns and subadult diets of this sambaqui group partially supports a scenario compatible with high population growth.

Spatio-temporal analysis of irrigation infrastructure development and long-term changes in irrigated areas in Upper Kharun catchment, Chhattisgarh, India

The Upper Kharun Catchment (UKC), which is part of the new State Chhattisgarh formed in 2000, features considerable population growth, expansion of urban areas and dynamic changes in irrigation infrastructure as well as irrigation practices (spatial extension, temporal intensification, increasing use of groundwater as source) for meeting the increasing food demand. Water intensive rice is the major crop of the area. UKC has a comprehensive canal irrigation system which provides the link to water supply from reservoirs fed from areas outside the UKC. However, water provision for irrigation via the canal system for irrigation is restricted to only post-monsoon season. As a consequence, groundwater remains the only source of irrigation water in summer and winter seasons. Improved electricity facilities and subsidy on groundwater pumping have triggered an enormous increase in groundwater withdrawals. Remote sensing satellite images along with ground observed data were used in this study to spatially identify the areas with canal and groundwater irrigation. Results reveal that in 2011, around 50% of the area of the UKC benefits from canal irrigation, whereas 29.8% area is irrigated by groundwater. Around 103 villages in the UKC have no canal infrastructures. 216 villages in UKC are considered as ‘hotspot areas’ because of high groundwater withdrawal (irrigated area exceeding 75 ha per village), There has been threefold increase in groundwater irrigated area in UKC between 1991 and 2011. The upward trend of groundwater use indicates an alarming situation towards over-exploitation and creates the need to provide and analyze data on the use of groundwater resources in the area in order to detect past and to estimate future trends referring to groundwater withdrawals. These data are a prerequisite for enabling careful and foresightful management of groundwater resources especially at spatially identified hotspot areas towards ensuring sustainable management of this resource.

Impact of land-use change on the water resources of the Upper Kharun Catchment, Chhattisgarh, India

Reliable information on the water balance components today and their future changes is a prerequisite for foresightful and sustainable water management. Basically, these components are under the strong influence of land-use dynamics. The Upper Kharun Catchment (UKC) is a typical example featuring considerable population growth, expansion of urban areas, industrialization, and dynamic changes in irrigation practices (extension, intensification). This research combines the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and an advanced procedure for spatio-temporal land-use mapping that integrates the intra-annual variation within a single map and hence better represents an area with different levels of urbanization and multiple crop rotations. Due to its relevant impact on the water balance, special attention is paid to aspects of irrigation. The land-use map scenarios are prepared for 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021. The study reveals that an increasing pumping rate of groundwater for irrigation is the main reason for decreasing the groundwater contribution to streamflow and subsequently a lowering in discharge and water yield. On the other hand, annual surface runoff has increased significantly by an expansion in built-up areas over the decades in the respective parts of the study area. On the UKC scale, the impact of land-use change on the water balance until 2021 is small. However, the impact on water resources is clearly visible and significant at sub-catchment level (increase: surface runoff; decrease: percolation; decrease: groundwater contribution to streamflow, and increase: actual evapotranspiration), where expanding urban areas and intensification of groundwater irrigated areas were observed and assessed as the major drivers. The results facilitate the introduction of best water and land-use management practices and conceiving of supportive infrastructure.

Population Ageing in Australia: Policy Implications of Recent Projections

Recent projections published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics set out a range of possible demographic futures for Australia. This article examines 12 of these which all share the same life expectancy assumptions, but which differ in their assumptions for fertility and net overseas migration. It shows that all of the projection series that include net migration entail considerable population growth, but have a minimal effect on the age structure. In contrast the projection series that assumes near replacement fertility (a total fertility rate of 2.0) and nil net migration leads to modest growth. It also leads to a younger age structure than series which combine immigration with a lower fertility rate of 1.6.

THE POST-2015 GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AGENDA: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS

This paper provides a critical analysis of the post-2015 global development agenda that the international community plans to adopt. This agenda, produced by a high-level panel of eminent persons, is based on two previous agendas – the MDGs and the SDGs. This merger is motivated by similarities in their goals, interdependence between some of their goals, and the need for improved global governance, especially with respect to global public goods. However both agendas are ill-defined and a gap exists between ends and means. The new unique agenda has numerous and varied goals which are potentially in conflict. Furthermore, the world has changed a lot since 2000 and this necessitates a change in the global development agenda. Globally there have been growing economic and social inequalities, considerable population growth and the rise of emerging economies. Subjects of increasing concern include climate change, and other environmental and sustainability issues. These need to be given greater attention in any new economic and/or political agenda than previously. It is argued that developed countries might face a dilemma between altruistic aid policies and tied aid to encourage transformation towards a green economy. Despite its shortcomings, it can be argued that the new agenda provides scope for political compromise and flexibility. This is rational if a wide view of rationality is adopted.

Urban renewal and social sustainability: An exploratory study of the urban life of Wan Chai

Background Urban renewal has become an important issue in Hong Kong, which is experiencing considerable population growth pressures and urban decay in various districts. Ho et al. [1] noted that urban renewal often creates not only environmental problems such as demolition waste, but also social problems such as destruction of existing social networks and the fabric of long-established communities. Despite the Urban Renewal Authority (URA)’s claim to foster, encourage, and support sustainable development, it is not difficult to find negative comments from the public about various aspects of urban renewal, in particular with regard to urban sustainability the social dimension of sustainable development. In fact, in the past ten years, there have been several social movements concerned with or directed against redevelopment programmes in urban areas. What these social movements have in common is that participants are not only affected residents or business owners, but also members of civil society who do not live in the affected districts. Some scholars have started to criticise the URA’s planning approach, and stated that there is a need to review the practices of urban renewal in Hong Kong [2]. Through a comprehensive review of urban development, urban planning and urban renewal in Hong Kong, and case studies and observations of Wan Chai, this study attempts to explore the influence of planning ideology and modernist urban planning on urban renewal practices in Hong Kong. It also considers why most residents do not support, and even oppose, the urban renewal projects of the URA.

Assessment of the effectiveness of flood adaptation strategies for HCMC

Abstract. Coastal cities are vulnerable to flooding, and flood risk to coastal cities will increase due to sea-level rise. Moreover, Asian cities in particular are subject to considerable population growth and associated urban developments, increasing this risk even more. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost and benefits of flood risk reduction measures are therefore paramount for sustainable development of these cities. This paper presents an approach to explore the impacts of sea-level rise and socio-economic developments on flood risk for the flood-prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new levees, dry- and wet proofing of buildings and elevating roads and buildings). A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk using the results from a household survey to establish stage–damage curves for residential buildings. The model has been used to assess the effects of several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk, expressed in expected annual damage (EAD). Adaptation strategies were evaluated assuming combinations of both sea-level scenarios and land-use scenarios. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we calculated the benefit–cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and 5%. The results of this modelling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is USD 0.31 million per year, increasing up to USD 0.78 million per year in 2100. The net present value and benefit–cost ratios using a discount rate of 5 % range from USD −107 to −1.5 million, and from 0.086 to 0.796 for the different strategies. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit–cost ratio. The adaptation strategies wet-proofing and dry-proofing generate the best results using these economic indicators. The information on different strategies will be used by the government of Ho Chi Minh City to determine a new flood protection strategy. Future research should focus on gathering empirical data right after a flood on the occurring damage, as this appears to be the most uncertain factor in the risk assessment.

Impact of anthropogenic and natural environmental changes on Echinococcus transmission in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, the People’s Republic of China

Echinococcus transmission is known to be affected by various environmental factors, which may be modified by human influence or natural events including global warming. Considerable population growth in the last fifty years in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), has led to dramatic increases in deforestation and modified agricultural practices. In turn, this has resulted in many changes in the habitats for the definitive and intermediate hosts of both Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis, which have increased the risks for transmission of both parasites, affecting echinococcosis prevalence and human disease. Ecological environmental changes due to anthropogenic activities and natural events drive Echinococcus transmission and NHAR provides a notable example illustrating how human activity can impact on a parasitic infection of major public health significance. It is very important to continually monitor these environmental (including climatic) factors that drive the distribution of Echinococcus spp. and their impact on transmission to humans because such information is necessary to formulate reliable future public health policy for echinococcosis control programs and to prevent disease spread.

Introduction to Water Use From Arctic Lakes: Identification, Impacts, and Decision Support1

Introduction to Water Use From Arctic Lakes: Identification, Impacts, and Decision Support¹

Court distinguishes fees from taxes

The City of Marion experienced considerable population growth and exceeded the design capacity of both its water and sewer systems. Between July 1988 and August 1990, the city enacted ordinances that required “tapping fees” from builders or lot owners connecting to the city's existing water and sewer systems and “access fees” from any person or entity connecting to the city's transmission lines. These fees only applied to new development. The ordinances were amended to provide that the funds would be placed in separate accounts‐‐the “water expansion account” and “sewer expansion account”‐‐and used solely to expand the city's water and sewer systems. Land developers challenged the constitutionality of the ordinances and their validity under state law. The trial court found that the ordinances amounted to taxes that were invalid because they had not been approved by voters. The decision was reversed on appeal.

Immigration and immigrant generations in population projections

This paper proposes a new model for population projections. This model projects an initial population under conditions of fertility, mortality, and international migration (like standard cohortcomponent models), but considers the population arrayed by generation. The model incorporates four generations: a foreign-born first generation (the immigrants), a second generation (sons and daughters of immigrants), a third generation (grandsons and granddaughters of immigrants), and fourth-and-higher generations. The model requires fertility, mortality, and migration equations by generation, which take a somewhat different form than in conventional cohort-component population projection. Consideration of the model also makes apparent that assignment of births to generations may not follow a simple form; the paper presents a method for including the empirical description of intergenerational births within the generational framework. As an example, we examine the next century of population growth for the Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White non-Hispanic populations in the United States, comparing their growth rates and their composition within the total US population. With annual net immigration of 950000, the total US population of 249 million in 1990 will top 400 million in 2070 and reach about 432 million in 2090. Thus, the level of immigration and emigration assumed in these projections suggests considerable population growth for the next hundred years. The racial/ethnic composition of the United States will shift markedly during the next century, as described in the paper.

Viudas y vecinos, milpas y magueyes : el impacto del auge de la población en el Valle de Toluca : el caso de Tenango del Valle en el siglo XVIII

El objetivo central de este artículo es mostrar los diferentes efectos del gran crecimiento poblacional que sufrió Tenango del Valle en el siglo XVIII. Con datos del padrón que levantó el párroco en 1770 en la cabecera de esa parroquia y sus visitas, así como con otros padrones poblacionales levantados entre 1748 y 1848 para esta región, se analizan diversos aspectos de la población. En primer lugar, la extensión y el crecimiento de esa parroquia, la composición étnica y los cambios ocurridos, en especial en la cabecera, en la que aumentó siete veces el número de familias españolas o mestizas durante el periodo estudiado y los problemas que este cambio produjo sobre la tenencia de la tierra. Otro aspecto que se estudia es el efecto de la saturación poblacional que se dio en la región, y sus consecuencias en la composición y tamaño de los hogares tanto de la población indígena como de la española. Para Tenango los datos de 1784 muestran que la comunidad indígena contaba todavía con una buena base de subsistencia, pero con el tiempo, la atomización progresiva de las propiedades, junto con el arrendamiento de las tierras a los españoles, acabó por empobrecer a las familias indígenas de ese lugar. Como consecuencia, este grupo vivió, por lo general, en la pobreza y tuvo, por ende, que dedicarse a otras actividades. La población de las visitas corrió igual suerte, porque las tierras que poseían eran de mala calidad y tampoco les proporcionaban un medio de vida. Por último se analiza la situación de la mujer en este contexto, destacando el alto porcentaje de viudas y de mujeres jefes de familia existentes en la región y los problemas que éstas tuvieron tanto para tener acceso a la tierra como para cuidar a sus familias.