Natural Hazard Events Research Articles

Metrics to Increase Data Usage Understanding and Transparency

Data metrics are essential to assess the impact of data repositories' holdings and to understand the research practices of the community that they serve. These metrics are useful for reporting to funders, to inform community engagement strategies, and to direct and sustain repository services. In turn, communicating these metrics to the user community conveys transparency and elicits their trust in data sharing. However, because data metrics are time-sensitive and context-dependent, tracking, interpreting, and communicating them is challenging. In this work we introduce data usage analyses including benchmarking and grouping, developed to better assess the impact of the DesignSafe Data Depot, a natural hazards data repository. Make Data Count compliant metrics are analysed in relation to research methods, sub-disciplines, natural hazard types, and time, to learn what data is being used, what influences data usage, and to establish realistic usage expectations. Results are interpreted in relation to the research and publication practices of the community and to natural hazard events. In addition, we introduce strategies to clearly communicate dataset metrics to users.

Get ready: disaster preparedness and response for people with chronic illnesses living in hazard-prone Petone, Aotearoa New Zealand

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to understand how people living with chronic illness understand their healthcare needs, particularly as they can be disrupted by natural hazards events (e.g. earthquakes, flooding and landslides), which can result in chronic health conditions becoming acute. Research has shown that, because of such disruption, people with chronic illness face the greatest risk of adverse health outcomes during a disaster, placing significant demand on healthcare systems.Design/methodology/approachThe research draws on a narrative analysis of in-depth, semi-structured interviews with eight people who have a chronic illness and live in a hazard-prone location, namely Petone, Lower Hutt, Aotearoa New Zealand.FindingsTwo major narrative themes were identified: “Social Capital”, which included the three subthemes of community, social connection and support and family and friends. Tellers also experienced a strong sense of “Independence”, as demonstrated through seven subthemes that included declaration, defiance, rules, experience, acceptance, responsibility, self-surveillance and self-management.Practical implicationsPractice output from this research includes the development of fit for purpose emergency management policies and other educational resources to ensure equity, access and choice for people with a chronic illness and their communities.Social implicationsThis research produces in-depth knowledge and insight into the preparedness and response needs of people who live with a chronic illness. This is an under-research area in disaster management in Aotearoa New Zealand.Originality/valueRoutine medical treatment for people living with chronic illness can be disrupted by natural hazard events (e.g. earthquakes, flooding and landslides), which can result in chronic health conditions becoming acute. Research has shown that, because of such disruption, the chronically ill face the greatest risk of adverse health outcomes during a disaster, placing significant demand on healthcare. This research investigates how people living with chronic illness experience disaster preparedness and response while residing in a hazard-prone location, namely Petone, Lower Hutt, Aotearoa New Zealand. The study argues that it is imperative to acknowledge the experiences of people with chronic illness as they provide specific insights into their needs during a disaster.

Climate change adaptation in Norwegian businesses − Awareness, integration and barriers

Preventive measures adopted to protect buildings and infrastructure from extreme weather and natural hazard events may serve to mitigate extensive damage and thus avoid major expenditures to businesses and society. A survey of 1,001 representative companies across different sectors and regions in Norway reveals that most companies fail to prioritise the climate change adaptation of their buildings or infrastructure. Most respondents have not conducted risk assessments. The greatest focus is adopted by large companies, those that own their buildings and infrastructure, and businesses in the primary and energy sectors. Small companies, service sector businesses and companies that rent their buildings and infrastructure are the least well prepared. The largest perceived barrier to adaptation is costs, followed by a lack of knowledge and competence in the fields of climate change impacts and adaptation measures. The large majority state that they do not measure climate change adaptation at all. Less than 10 per cent use indicators or evaluate their climate change adaptation efforts. Survey results suggest that Norwegian businesses need stronger incentives and clearly defined responsibilities, combined with appropriate tools and guidelines relevant to the entire climate change adaptation cycle. These will include the performance of risk assessments, the tracking of their adaptation status, as well as the measurement and evaluation of their climate change adaptation actions with the help of indicators.

Contribution of Network Redundancy to Reducing Criticality of Road Links

Road networks are frequently disrupted by natural hazard events, producing severe consequences for isolated communities as well as increased travel times and significant reconstruction costs. Therefore, identifying which critical links need investment to reduce network impacts has become a priority for road agencies. Road network redundancy contributes to reducing these potential consequences by providing viable alternative routes. Although several metrics have been proposed in the literature to evaluate road criticality, including those based on topological variables and transportation cost increases, a comparison of the contribution of redundancy to reducing expected consequences has not been undertaken using a range of different metrics. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate road criticality under different metrics and to quantify the contribution of redundancy in reducing expected impacts using the “full scan” method and Monte Carlo simulation. This methodology is then applied to a case study of New Zealand’s South Island to quantify the contribution of secondary and tertiary inter-urban roads to overall network redundancy, and to determine the most critical links under different approaches. The results obtained from the case study demonstrate that the redundancy level provided by secondary and tertiary inter-urban roads, over and above the state highway network, decreases expected transportation cost increases by 94.93% on average, and improves topological metrics, such as network betweenness values, by 73% on average when the road network is disrupted. The proposed methodology has the potential to help decision makers quantify and, therefore, prioritize investments to reduce the consequences of network disruptions.

Multi-hazard life-cycle consequence analysis of deteriorating engineering systems

Probabilistic life-cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis (e.g., assessment of repair costs, downtime, or casualties over an asset’s service life) can enable optimal life-cycle management of critical assets under uncertainties. This can lead to effective risk-informed decision-making for future disaster management (i.e., risk mitigation and/or resilience-enhancing strategies/policies) implementation. Nevertheless, despite recent advances in understanding, modeling, and quantifying multiple-hazard (or multi-hazard) interactions, most available LCCon analytical formulations fail to accurately compute the exacerbated consequences which may stem from incomplete or absent repair actions between different interacting hazard events. This paper introduces a discrete-time, discrete-state Markovian framework for efficient multi-hazard LCCon analysis of deteriorating engineering systems (e.g., buildings, infrastructure components) that appropriately accounts for complex interactions between natural hazard events and their effects on a system’s performance. The Markovian assumption is used to model the probability of a system being in any performance level (i.e., limit state) after multiple hazard events inducing either instantaneous and/or gradual deterioration and after potential repair actions through implementing stochastic (transition) matrices. LCCon estimates are then obtained by combining limit state probabilties with suitable system-level consequence models in a computationally efficient manner. The proposed framework is illustrated for two case studies subject to earthquake and flood events as well as environment-induced corrosion during their service life. The first is a reinforced concrete building and the second is a simple transportation road network with a reinforced concrete bridge.

The impact of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption on the Peruvian atmosphere: from the sea surface to the ionosphere

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai volcano on 15 January 2022 significantly impacted the lower and upper atmosphere globally. Using multi-instrument observations, we described disturbances from the sea surface to the ionosphere associated with atmospheric waves generated by the volcanic eruption. Perturbations were detected in atmospheric pressure, horizontal magnetic field, equatorial electrojet (EEJ), ionospheric plasma drifts, total electron content (TEC), mesospheric and lower thermospheric (MLT) neutral winds, and ionospheric virtual height measured at low magnetic latitudes in the western South American sector (mainly in Peru). The eastward Lamb wave propagation was observed at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory on the day of the eruption at 13:50 UT and on its way back from the antipodal point (westward) on the next day at 07:05 UT. Perturbations in the horizontal component of the magnetic field (indicative of EEJ variations) were detected between 12:00 and 22:00 UT. During the same period, GNSS-TEC measurements of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) coincided approximately with the arrival time of Lamb and tsunami waves. On the other hand, a large westward variation of MLT winds occurred near 18:00 UT over Peru. However, MLT perturbations due to possible westward waves from the antipode have not been identified. In addition, daytime vertical plasma drifts showed an unusual downward behavior between 12:00 and 16:00 UT, followed by an upward enhancement between 16:00 and 19:00 UT. Untypical daytime eastward zonal plasma drifts were observed when westward drifts were expected. Variations in the EEJ are highly correlated with perturbations in the vertical plasma drift exhibiting a counter-equatorial electrojet (CEEJ) between 12:00 and 16:00 UT. These observations of plasma drifts and EEJ are, so far, the only ground-based radar measurements of these parameters in the western South American region after the eruption. We attributed the ion drift and EEJ perturbations to large-scale thermospheric wind variations produced by the eruption, which altered the dynamo electric field in the Hall and Pedersen regions. These types of multiple and simultaneous observations can contribute to advancing our understanding of the ionospheric processes associated with natural hazard events and the interaction with lower atmospheric layers.Graphical

A gap approach for preventing stress in complex systems: managing natural hazard induced fiscal risks under a changing climate

Disasters associated with natural hazards as well as climate change are happening within complex socio-economic systems and desired system states, including sustainable development and resource management, are formulated on the global as well as regional and national levels. However, complex system approaches are yet only rudimentarily incorporated in related applications, and we discuss modeling as well as policy challenges focusing on fiscal risk. As an intermediate step we suggest a gap approach which we relate to fiscal stress levels a complex system may experience due to natural hazard events. We argue that in case of no gaps one can assume a no stress situation and therefore modeling of disruptions including cascading effects is less necessary. However, at the same time we also acknowledge that there is an urgent need to address corresponding challenges with complex system methods. Policy-wise our paper responds to concerns for real-world applications and can provide insights to support current discussions within the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement around both adaptation finance and the new funding arrangements for loss and damage from climate impacts established at COP27.

The Interplay of Climate and Disaster in Men's Stories of the 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand1

This paper contributes to the emerging field of men, masculinities, and disasters by drawing on narratives of men's accounts of the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, including how stories of the earthquake intersect with experiences and understandings of extreme weather and climate change. A qualitative methodology was employed, and semi‐structured interviews were conducted with 19 men who experienced the 7.8 magnitude earthquake. This article offers an examination of the complexity of disaster experiences and recovery, as well as how people make sense of hazards and risks. We argue that ongoing exposure to climate hazards informed participant's responses to other infrequent natural hazard events, such as the Kaikōura earthquake. The research identified that men construct their own understandings and responses to natural hazards through a hierarchy of risk perception and probability based on personal experience.

Rapid natural hazard extent estimation from twitter data: investigation for hurricane impact areas

Natural hazards have occurred more frequently in the past years and pose a severe risk to human life. Their extents and, thereby, the most heavily affected areas must be estimated at the earliest to limit damages or initiate rescue services. For such estimations, a widely available data source, which is comparatively responsive to short-time changes, is needed and provided by volunteered geographic information (VGI) data. Tropical cyclones are natural hazard events that can cause enormous spatially extended damage. In this study, we introduce Machine Learning approaches such as Extremely Randomized Tree (ET) and Geographically Weighted Regression for estimating hurricane-impacted regions from VGI data. In addition to the general approximate track extent estimation, we also evaluate the possibilities of temporal estimation of track development from VGI data. Different scenarios are evaluated, and we find that the results mainly depend on the choice of the geographical splits for training and test data for the underlying regression task. Suitable splits lead to R2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R^2$$\\end{document} of 99% in the best cases with the ET model. The estimation results are satisfying when considering the temporal aspect and represent a use-case scenario. Such a combination of Machine Learning approaches and VGI is a simple and fast approach for early natural hazard estimation.

Development of Community-Level Capacity of Resilience to Natural Hazards for Environmental- and Social-Justice-Challenged Communities: 1. Approach, Concepts, and Assessment of Existing Information.

Impoverished and under-served communities are often exposed to the worst environmental and climate hazards. Identifying these communities and building their resilience capacity to withstand such hazards is a vital justice aspect of environmental management. Building community resilience requires five activities: (1) examination of existing information, (2) community engagement and assessment of local knowledge, (3) development of reasonable strategies to build resilience, (4) implementation and these strategies, and (5) monitoring and transability of the process. This manuscript examines the first component of this process. The attributes of multiple parishes in Louisiana are examined using available data and existing models of human well-being, community resilience, and environmental/climate/socioeconomic justice. These existing models and tools were used to determine parish-level resilience to natural hazards including flooding, hurricanes, and other potential natural climatic hazards in central Louisiana (U.S.). Through consultation with state officials and local community groups, candidate environmental justice (EJ) and social justice (SJ) communities were selected to develop resilience capacity enhancement plans to address potential adverse parish and community outcomes of natural hazard events. Of the available parishes, St. Helena Parish was selected as an entity that would significantly benefit from resilience capacity building. The remaining two activities, community engagement and strategy development, will be examined in sister manuscripts. Continuing studies, to be described elsewhere, will describe community engagement and the determination of strategies, implementation plans, and the monitoring of the success of these strategic implementations.

From the farmers' point of view, how threatening and harmful are natural hazards? A Q methodology

Droughts, floods, and dust storms have increased the vulnerability of farm families in developing countries. Well-timed and effective interventions could reduce vulnerability to natural hazards. However, the adoption of adaptive strategies is significantly influenced by the farmers' viewpoints about the causes and effects of natural hazards and their perceived capacity to deal with these crises. This study employed the Q methodology to investigate farmers' viewpoints on vulnerability and adaptation to natural hazards in the Sistan Plain, Iran. The Q-sort procedure was conducted with the participation of 29 farmers, and the qmethod package in R software was used to analyze the Q-factor. The results revealed four types of perceptions regarding vulnerability and adaptation to natural hazards: passive-oriented, pragmatic activists, consequentialists, and change-averse. Different viewpoints demonstrate that farmers have divergent opinions regarding vulnerability and adaptation to natural hazards. Identifying these viewpoints can provide useful information for policymaking and the scaling up of specific adaptive strategies for each group, which can eventually enhance farmers’ resilience to natural disasters.

Highway Recovery Times from Disruptions by Natural Hazard Events

Highway Recovery Times from Disruptions by Natural Hazard Events

Lessons from international case studies on bridge-slide interaction problems

Bridges and viaducts are facing progressive and natural degradation of materials, structural elements, and the of territory in which the works are located. The deterioration is exacerbated by increasingly frequent and abrupt “accelerations”, caused by natural hazard events such as landslides and floods, which are intensified by climate change. In particular, landslide events exhibit a range of interaction phenomena, from simple quasi-static forces for slow landslides, to dynamic forces generated by impact events. This research work presents a collection of international case studies of bridge-landslide interactions that have resulted in structure damage or collapse. Relevant variables from these cases were rationalized to allow statistical analysis in aggregate form considering different interaction mechanisms. The results show that the type of landslide, its velocity, volume, elements involved, and direction of movement with respect to the direction of the bridge are some of the main parameters. This approach provides valuable guidance for implementing more refined landslide risk characterization models for bridges.

A Systematic Review of Integrated Frameworks for Resilience and Sustainability Assessments for Critical Infrastructures

There is a growing tendency to assess resilience and sustainability of critical infrastructures (CI), given the significant increment in high-impact natural hazard events affecting socio-economic welfare. Historically, these assessments have been conducted separately due to the independent evolution of each concept. However, recent contributions tend to integrate them. This paper provides a state-of-the-art review of integrated assessments for resilience and sustainability in CI, examining concepts, indicators, frameworks, and methodologies. Additionally, a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis was performed to gain further insights into the prospects of integrated assessments. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology, eligibility criteria were established, leading to the selection of twelve studies. These works were compared based on five dimensions (economic, environmental, social, technical, and governance) to highlight the differences in the indicators used. While all studies considered the social, environmental, and economic dimensions, some did not further analyze sufficient indicators to evaluate environmental and social effects, with governance often neglected. This study emphasizes the relevance of establishing common metrics for a convergent frame for the resilience and sustainability assessment. The findings presented suggest that integrated assessments lead to a more strategic use of resources toward more resilient CI.

Influences of Geohazard Susceptibility on the Geodiversity of the Coromandel Peninsula, New Zealand

Unexpected natural hazardous events can lead communities to create preparedness plans and identify risks associated with future devastating events. In the case of Cyclone Gabrielle, which resulted in catastrophic damage throughout the North Island of New Zealand, we recognised a need for models that could define the most hazardous areas in the Coromandel Peninsula with respect to the potential risk of hazardous influences on the anthroposphere as shaped by geodiversity. In this research, we utilise a qualitative-quantitative methodology for the assessment of hazard susceptibility applied to locations with varying levels of geodiversity on the Coromandel Peninsula. Because most of the geological sites displaying high values are located near cliff sides and/or along valleys, they are likely to align with hazardous areas. Utilising the same methodology for the recognition of two different parameters will provide an opportunity to compare results to find a potential similarity and/or correlation between geological locations and hazardous zones. Meanwhile, a flood prediction model has been analysed along with hazard susceptibility to recognise potential risks in the anthropological sphere (presented as buildings) on the Coromandel Peninsula. Our research results demonstrate a significant correlation between hazard susceptibility and geodiversity models, while flood prediction models together with the hazard model define vulnerable regions in the event of future natural events on the Coromandel Peninsula.

Seismic and Tsunami Risk Analysis for Installing Resilient Power Systems Based on Isolated Microgrids on Buildings: The Case of Puerto Ayora in Santa Cruz Island, Galapagos

Due to their geographical condition and worldwide environmental protection policies, the Galapagos Islands must opt for implementing clean energy infrastructure considering natural hazard effects that can directly affect the resilience of community residents. Santa Cruz Island is part of this archipelago, with rich biodiversity in flora and unique fauna. This study proposes identifying earthquake and tsunami risk assessment components on the island, such as the infrastructure vulnerability of Puerto Ayora, the central city of Santa Cruz Island. The FEMA P-154 and FEMA P-646 methodologies are used to classify buildings for technically installing microgrids based on photovoltaic generation systems. For this purpose, maps and data from state entities are used in combination with catalogs from development and land use planning, Software for Geoprocesses and virtual tours, and cadastral information provided by the Decentralized Autonomous Government (GAD) of Santa Cruz to develop techniques that offer a risk index to identify buildings that could sustain seismic and tsunamic loads. The study exposes alarming results that would prevent the installation of photovoltaic generation systems on the buildings’ roofs. Consequently, a more detailed field study is recommended to contrast the reported analysis to implement mitigation strategies accordingly. Finally, geoprocesseced maps are presented, in addition to general installing recommendations for the photovoltaic system’s infrastructure.

Challenges of instruments that should tackle multi-hazard and multi-risk situations: an assessment of the recent reforms of the European Solidarity Fund and the Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve

The European Union has some dedicated tools and mechanisms available to respond to natural hazard events including the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF). It follows the objective of granting financial assistance to Member States in the event of a major disaster with serious consequences. In the latest EU long-term budget plan—the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021–2027—the EUSF was merged with the Emergency Aid Reserve (EAR) to form the new Solidarity and Emergency Aid Reserve (SEAR). One additional significant change was made in 2020 which saw an extension of the scope of the EUSF. This extension allowed the EUSF to cover losses incurred due to major public health emergencies such as the COVID-19 pandemic. It is therefore now a multi-hazard and multi-risk financing instrument designed to financially assist during the emergency phase in case of an emergency event. We assess the consequences of these changes in the light of potential advantages as well as disadvantages compared to the prior EUSF structure. The results will be used to provide some policy recommendations as to how to move forward with the identified challenges. We especially recommend separating the EUSF from the coverage of large-scale public health emergencies and the emergencies covered by the EAR. Instead, we suggest establishing a new flexibility instrument that covers emergencies such as public health related ones as well as the ones within the EAR. The analysis gives some important insights, scientific as well as policy wise, about advantages as well as limitations of financial instruments that simultaneously should tackle different types of hazards and risks.

Atmospheric and Ionospheric Effects of La Palma Volcano 2021 Eruption

On 19 September 2021, La Palma volcano (Canarias Archipelagos) started an eruption that persisted until 13 December 2021. Despite the Volcano Explosive Index (VEI) being estimated equal to 3, corresponding to not so powerful eruption, the long eruption activity posed much scientific interest in this natural hazard event. In this paper, we searched for possible effects of this eruption on the atmosphere and ionosphere, investigating the climatological archive and Swarm magnetic satellite data. In particular, we explored Aerosol, Sulphur Dioxide and Carbon Monoxide concentrations in the atmosphere identifying both the direct emissions from the volcano as well as the plume that drifted toward West-South-West and was reinforced during the eruption period. The vertical profile of temperature from the Saber satellite was analysed to search for the possible presence of acoustic gravity waves induced by volcanic activity. Compared with the year before without eruption in the areas, a lot of Saber profiles present an Energy Potential very much higher than the previous year, proposing the presence of Acoustic Gravity Waves (AGW) induced by volcano eruption activity. We also identified Swarm magnetic disturbances on the day of the eruption and in November. The mechanism of coupling could be different for the latter one, as there is no evidence for AGW. They may be due to a more complex of physical and chemical alterations that propagate from the lower atmosphere to the upper one into the ionosphere.

The natural domain and its social representation in the community resilience concept

AbstractMountain communities in Alpine areas are prone to natural hazard events and sensitive to climate change. In these areas, where communities are complex human‐environmental entanglements, strong community resilience is essential. Community resilience is shaped by a set of interacting domains that provide insights into a community's resilience level and highlights the proactive human agency the domains contain. The relevance of human agency for the natural, economic, social, cultural, and political domains has not yet been revealed. This study explores the interdependencies of the community resilience domains, particularly the natural domain, through the lens of social representation theory. Qualitative data from two remote mountain villages in the Upper Ötztal Valley in Tyrol, Austria, were analyzed. The research reveals that the natural domain is shaped through its social representation. Understanding this social representation contributes to a broader understanding of community resilience and can empower communities to harness the capacities that enhance it.

Inelastic Analysis and Damage Assessment of Hydraulic Arched Tunnels in Different Near-Fault Regions

The seismic natural hazard event is a threat of unpredictable events, which can easily cause incalculable damage to hydraulic tunnels. Traditionally, it is necessary to introduce as-recorded ground motions (GMs) appropriately for hydraulic arched tunnels during seismic design to avoid the unfavorable situation of large-scale collapse. However, the lack of adequate current selected methodology considering the accurate engineering site relative to the fault line in this type can result in more considerable deformations and severe damage to structures. Actually, the detailed explanation of the seismic design code of hydraulic tunnels cannot support the specific consideration of the spatial region effects since the considerable uncertainty of engineering sites in water resources and hydropower engineering. To address this issue, the present study proposes a novel selected methodology of as-recorded GMs that integrates the geographic location distribution of the strong earthquake monitoring station instead of the actual engineering site relative to the fault line. Subsequently, three-dimensional finite element models of a hydraulic arched tunnel reveal the possible seismic behavior of the tunnel induced by as-recorded GMs in different near-fault regions. Furthermore, the optimal IM between different near-fault regions and structural responses is also discussed through correlation analysis because it can describe the seismological features of as-recorded GMs, which has a crucial role in seismic design and performance assessment. The results reveal that the as-recorded GMs in the hanging wall region can induce more significant deformations and severe damage to the structure than other near-fault regions of as-recorded GMs. Meanwhile, the seismological characteristics and selected optimal IM for as-recorded GMs in different near-fault regions significantly differ. In summary, data and observations from these results highlight that considering the near-fault region effect is critical in optimizing the seismic design code.