Congressional Districts Research Articles

Small Area Estimation using Multilevel Regression and Poststratification to Estimate Cannabis Use in the State of Montana

Background: Small area substance use prevalence estimates at the county, city, or congressional district level are generally unavailable. In this study, we design a cannabis use survey for the state of Montana and use multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) to generate county-level population prevalence estimates for past year cannabis use. Methods: We developed a survey that asks questions about cannabis perceptions and use patterns. We analyzed the survey data specifically for the outcome variable of past year cannabis use using MRP to generate population level prevalence estimates at the county level for the state of Montana. Results: We received 1,958 responses from our survey. We generated county level estimates by age group for cannabis use over the past year and found that MRP estimates were consistent with prior estimations of cannabis use at the state level and provided the ability to use additional data and validated assumptions to refine and downscale estimations of cannabis use, particularly in counties with low response rates. Conclusion: Multi-modal survey dissemination was cost effective, but future surveys should intend to recruit a larger and more representative sample to minimize selection bias and improve estimation for demographic sub-groups. Overall, MRP provided a promising methodology for generating small-area cannabis use prevalence estimates, adjusting as much as possible for non-representativeness and non-response.

MAGA Trumps the Incumbency Advantage in a Dueling Incumbent Primary

Redistricting is the causal agent responsible for two incumbents facing off in U.S. House elections and hence, despite the rarity of these matchups, they occur periodically due to district boundary changes. In this article, we examine who wins a recent and highly competitive incumbent duel: the 2024 GOP primary in Alabama’s congressional district (CD) 1. Our assessment of this race marks the first academic study to marshal large-N survey data for the purpose of gauging voter preferences in a dueling incumbent primary. This approach gives us a clearer understanding of what accounts for the outcome of a highly contentious and extremely close election. Our findings suggest the incumbency advantage was overridden by voter alignment with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, which produced a narrow victory for the more MAGA/Trump-positioned candidate in this race.

School mental health and psychosocial support practices in congressional District 1 Schools Division of Quezon City: Basis for an intervention measure

School mental health and psychosocial support practices in congressional District 1 Schools Division of Quezon City: Basis for an intervention measure

Geospatial Data Aggregation Methods for Novel Geographies: Validating Congressional District Life Expectancy Estimates.

Place is a critical determinant of health. Recent novel analyses have explored health outcome estimation for small geographies, such as census tracts, as well as health outcome aggregation to geopolitical geographies with accountable political representatives, such as congressional districts. In one such application, combining these approaches, researchers aggregated census tract estimates of life expectancy to the congressional district level to derive local estimates, but such an approach has not been validated. Here, we compared two sources and approaches to calculating life expectancy data for Pennsylvania congressional districts. We used 2010-2015 census tract life expectancy estimates from the US Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project (LEEP) and dasymetric methods to compute population-weighted life expectancy aggregated to the congressional district level. Using georeferenced Vital Statistics data, we aggregated age-specific census tract death and population counts to congressional districts and used abridged life tables to estimate life expectancy. To validate the dasymetric aggregated estimates we compared absolute differences, assessed the correlation, and created Bland-Altman plots to visualize the agreement between the two measures. We found strong agreement between congressional district estimates of life expectancy at birth derived using the dasymetric LEEP model-based approach and Vital Statistics direct estimates approach, though life expectancy at older ages (75 and older) showed weak correlations. This validation contributes to our understanding of geospatial aggregation methods for novel geographies including congressional districts. Health outcome data aggregated to the congressional district geography can support congressional policy making aimed at improving population health outcomes.

Community Awareness and Compliance to the Municipal Ordinances in the First District of Capiz, Western Visayas, Philippines

This study aimed to assess the level of awareness of the residents in the first district of Capiz to municipal ordinances. A stratified random sample of 256 residents for each municipality, equally allocated by type of residents was used as respondents of the study. The study was conducted in the first congressional district of Capiz before COVID-19 pandemic. Descriptive-correlational method of research was used in the study. Results showed that all municipalities in the first district of Capiz implemented an ordinance on the prohibition on the use of cigarettes and tobacco. Residents from the municipalities in the first district of Capiz were aware of the ordinances implemented in their respective municipalities, but moderately complied with the said ordinances. The compliance to municipal ordinances is influenced by the lack of awareness of the residents as well as the lax implementation of the said ordinance. Effective information dissemination, rigorous and serious implementation and higher penalties are possible measures that could help improve the compliance of the residents towards municipal ordinances.

Gerrymandering and the Packing and Cracking of Medical Uninsurance Rates in the United States.

Technological innovation and access to big data have allowed partisan gerrymandering to increase dramatically in recent redistricting cycles. To understand whether and how partisan gerrymandering, including "packing" and "cracking" (ie, respectively concentrating within or dividing specified social groups across political boundaries), distorts understanding of public health need when health statistics are calculated for congressional districts (CDs). Cross-sectional study using 2020 CDs and nonpartisan simulated districts. United States, 2017-2021. United States residents. Percent with no medical insurance (uninsured), within-district variance of percent uninsured, and between-district variance of percent uninsured. At the state level, states where partisan redistricting plans showed greater evidence of partisan gerrymandering were more likely to contain CDs with more extreme values of uninsurance rates than districts in states with less evidence for gerrymandering (association between z-scores for gerrymandering and between-district variation in uninsurance=0.25 (-0.04, 0.53), P=.10). Comparing variation in uninsurance rates for observed CDs vs nonpartisan simulated districts across all states with more than 1 CD, in analyses stratified by state gerrymander status (no gerrymander, Democratic gerrymander, and Republican gerrymander), we found evidence of particularly extreme distortion of rates in Republican gerrymandered states, whereby Republican-leaning districts tended to have lower uninsurance rates (the percentage of Republican-leaning districts that were significantly lower than nonpartisan simulated districts was 5.1 times that of Democratic-leaning districts) and Democrat-leaning districts had higher uninsurance rates (the percentage of Democrat-leaning districts that were significantly higher than nonpartisan simulated districts was 3.0 times that of Republican-leaning districts). Partisan gerrymandering can affect determination of CD-level uninsurance rates and distort understanding of public health burdens.

Challenges Faced by Public School Teachers in Teaching Pupils in the Third District of Bohol

The study presented the challenges faced by public kindergarten teachers in the Third Congressional District of Bohol, Philippines. Employing descriptive survey method, data from 226 kindergarten teachers across 19 municipalities were analyzed to identify challenges based on class types and schedules. The demographic profile of respondents revealed a young workforce aged 20-40. Majority of which are holding a Bachelor of Elementary Education degree specializing in Early Childhood Education. All respondents were LET Board passers and had participated in relevant workshops. The study confirmed compliance to the mandated teacher-pupil ratio of 1:25, with a total student population of 5,868. Findings demonstrated significant differences in challenges faced by teachers based on class type. Teachers managing multi-grade classes reported more difficulties compared to those handling single-grade classes. The findings suggest potential violations of DepEd Order No. 47, s. 2016, which mandates separate kindergarten classes in multi-grade schools. This result heightened the challenges faced by multi-grade teachers. The research provides information for the development of teacher programs, and informing policy adjustments. It will also serve as a reference for future studies on the challenges in teaching kindergarten that aims to enhance the experiences of students in public schools.

Congressional Redistricting and Strategic Copartisans: Partisan Gerrymandering in Pennsylvania, 1800–1824

The group-centered theory of party development provides a new theoretical framework for understanding early party development. Specifically, it provides a logical framework to understand why early state legislators were motivated to engage in partisan gerrymandering during a period without national organizations. I use Pennsylvania as a case study to determine if partisanship influenced the creation of congressional district maps in 1802, 1812, and 1822. Using county-level congressional election returns and state legislative journals, I provide evidence of strategic partisan gerrymandering by the Democratic-Republicans during each apportionment year. I also show that the Federalist minority in Pennsylvania knew the national political impact of the process and attempted to influence congressional maps for their own partisan advantage. Lastly, I demonstrate how multi-member districts were the Democratic-Republicans’ weapon of choice to engage in partisan gerrymandering throughout the period. These results highlight the connection between state legislatures and congressional party politics during the first party era.

The 11th: Politics, Polarization, and Partisan Change in a Southern District, 1972–2022

Abstract What can be learned from analysis of a single congressional district? This paper uses the experience of North Carolina’s 11th congressional district to understand the political changes that have defined the last half-century in the American South. The story of how this once politically inconsequential southern Appalachian district found itself in the middle of the national political maelstrom is, in many ways, the story of southern politics over the last three decade. Political polarization, strategic gerrymandering, the power of national political tides, the increasing urban/rural divide and the broader partisan transformation of the South that has remade American politics all are reflected in the 11th. In addition to uncovering new wrinkles in the story of southern partisan change, this paper defines and highlights the advantages of place-based Political Science.

The House of Representatives Needs to Expand

In 1929, the United States limited the number of congressional districts for the House of Representatives to 435 seats through the Permanent Apportionment Act. At the time, the average number of people within a congressional district stood at around 280,000 persons. In the 2020 census, this number has risen to 761,000 people per district. As a result, the voting power of citizens has been diminished. Representatives also face issues including logistical challenges in providing aid and information to constituents due to large populations. Importantly, the 435-seat limit dilutes the voting power of the electorate by reducing representation in states that have disproportionately large populations. This article argues that the 435 limit enacted by the 1929 Permanent Apportionment Act and the current method of apportioning districts to each state conflicts with precedent set by the Supreme Court from the cases Reynolds v. Sims, 377 U.S. 533 (1964) and Wesberry v. Sanders, 376 U.S. 1 (1964). The 1929 Permanent Apportionment Act also violates the Fourteenth Amendment right to equal protection of residents who live in states with slow growth rates. This article will advocate for Congress to repeal the 1929 Permanent Apportionment Act and return to the practice of expanding the number of House seats every ten years, as well as lowering the size of each congressional district. 

Fear as a Political Tool: A Critical Analysis of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Fearmongering Narratives

This paper examines the fearmongering narratives employed by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene from Georgia in her political strategy. By analyzing sources, such as campaign materials, legislative proposals, and press releases through a content analysis method, the paper identifies three primary fear-based narratives this politician uses: threats to the country, threats to freedom, and threats to children. Moreover, the impact of fearmongering in Rep. Greene’s electoral strategy and its success in Georgia’s 14th congressional district, known for its conservative leanings, are also explored. By understanding the effectiveness of fearmongering, this research sheds light on the dynamics of contemporary political discourse in the United States and its potential consequences.

Using cluster analysis to identify communities of interest for purposes of legislative redistricting: A case study of parishes in Louisiana

The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology has been found to limit the kinds of communities that can in principle achieve political representation through redistricting because the process excludes “communities of interest” (COIs) that cannot be mapped. We argue that these limits can be overcome using empirically based variables to define a COI in conjunction with an empirically based classification system, cluster analysis. Our argument is based on a case study of a legislative redistricting case in which we examined the cultural, economic, demographic, historic, and social characteristics upon which a COI would be defined. We employed an empirically and scientifically based classification system called “cluster analysis” to determine if these two geographically-separated groups of parishes form a single COI, which, in turn, would serve as a justification for them being placed together into reorganized congressional District 5. We find that East Carroll Parish and its six neighboring parishes (Franklin, Madison, Morehouse, Richland, Tensas, and West Carroll) are in a different COI grouping than East Baton Rouge Parish. Moreover, from the COI perspective, East Baton Rouge Parish should not be included in proposed plans involving a proposed RCD5 that include East Carroll Parish and its six neighboring parishes. This finding also applies to Lafayette Parish, both in whole and in part. This finding is not only relevant because COIs are important in redistricting, but it demonstrates that the limits identified in regard to the use of GIS-based technology in identifying COIs can be surmounted.

OPPORTUNITIES, TEACHERS’ ATTITUDE AND ENGAGEMENT IN CONTINUING PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT (CPD) ACTIVITIES

This descriptive research investigated the opportunities, attitude, and engagement in Continuing Professional Development (CPD) activities among elementary school teachers in the Province of Iloilo for the school year 2023-2024. The population comprised of elementary school teachers, with 380 participants selected through random sampling. Data were collected through an online survey utilizing a structured, researcher-made, validated and reliability tested questionnaire. The results revealed significant differences in the opportunities for CPD activities across congressional districts. Additionally, significant variations were found in teachers' attitude towards CPD activities based on their educational attainment. Furthermore, significant differences were observed in the level of teachers' engagement in CPD activities concerning both educational attainment and congressional district. However, no significant differences were found when teachers were classified according to their age, sex, school level, and school size. This study concludes that, while opportunities and attitude significantly influence engagement in CPD activities, their significant differences vary when they were classified according to their educational attainment and congressional district. Hence, it is imperative to consider these when designing CPD programs for elementary school teachers in the Province of Iloilo. Tailoring CPD opportunities and strategies is highly recommended to address the specific needs and preferences of teachers based on their educational backgrounds and geographic locations. Moreover, further research is warranted to explore additional variables that may influence teachers' engagement in CPD activities and to assess the long-term effectiveness of CPD programs in enhancing teaching quality and student outcomes.

Democratic Backsliding in the American States: The Case of Judicial Independence

Abstract With ever-increasing gridlock and polarization at the national level, many new policy changes in the United States have come at the state level. This includes legislation that restricts the right to vote, limits free speech and expression, and gerrymanders state legislative and congressional districts. A growing body of literature describes these changes, when taken together, as evidence of subnational democratic backsliding. Yet this literature largely ignores the effects of federalism on the structure of institutions within the states, particularly on judicial independence. In this article, I examine the relationship between measures of democracy and introduction of court-curbing legislation in the states. Focusing on instances of court packing, changing the methods of selection and retention, and impeachment, I show that heightened attacks on judicial independence are associated with other types of democratic backsliding.

New area- and population-based geographic crosswalks for U.S. counties and congressional districts, 1790–2020

In applied historical research, geographic units often differ in level of aggregation across datasets. One solution is to use crosswalks that associate factors located within one geographic unit to another, based on their relative areas. We develop an alternative approach based on relative populations, which accounts for heterogeneities in urbanization within counties. We construct population-based crosswalks for 1790 through 2020, which map county-level data across U.S. censuses, as well as from counties to congressional districts. Using official census data for congressional districts, we show that population-based weights outperform area-based ones in terms of similarity to official data.

Moving the electoral goalposts: State and local strategies of electoral intervention in the U.S.

Central to the partisan divide in American politics is disagreement over the fundamental legitimacy of American elections. Due to the decentralized nature of election administration in the US, these disagreements have led to a complex web of heterogeneous electoral institutions. Scholars have made impressive progress on untangling the effects of these different institutions — unfortunately, less is known about the sources of adoption of such proposals. Using time-series cross-sectional data on the adoption of various electoral policies by state governments from 2001–2018, I examine the role of politics and identity in shaping the types of electoral interventions adopted by state legislatures during an important period of increasing politicization of such interventions. Applying dynamic panel models and constructing a novel measure of the concentration of Black population within competitive congressional districts, I find that the effects of race, competition, and ideology on electoral interventions differ across both partisan lines and issue areas.

Abstract P322: Mapping Geographic Variation in Hypertension Prevalence in United States Congressional Districts Using Spatial Modeling

Introduction: Using spatial methods to explore drivers of hypertension (HTN) risks, commonalities, and differences across geographical areas can be assessed to inform future public health research and advocacy efforts. Objectives: To examine ecological associations between social determinants of health (SDoH), space, and HTN across congressional districts (CDs) in effect for the 118th US Congress. Methods: We obtained aggregate district-level data from Congressional District Health Dashboard on health behaviors, exposures, and outcomes for US CDs in 2019. Primary outcome was HTN prevalence, defined as proportion of adults who self-reported diagnosed HTN. Exposure variables were SDoH: health outcomes (diabetes, obesity, frequent physical and mental distress), health behaviors (physical activity, binge drinking, smoking), clinical care (routine checkups), and physical environment (air pollution). We fitted a hierarchical Bayesian Besag-York-Mollié model using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method, which allowed the estimation of spatial autocorrelation of HTN prevalence at CDs level, accounting for SDoH. Results: Across 421 CDs, we found a variation in the modeled linear proportion of 83% across the CDs in the United States after adjusting for known HTN risk factors at the CDs level. A notable degree of variation in HTN prevalence exists within specific CDs, independent of recognized risk factors ( Figure ). These unmeasured variables act as confounding elements, and districts with darker shading indicate increased HTN attributed to the district, while lighter, red-shaded districts exhibit a reduced district-specific proportion of HTN. Conclusions: Our findings show significant geographic variation of HTN beyond known risk factors which underscores the significance of adopting a spatial perspective to understand HTN prevalence. It emphasizes the necessity for tailored public health interventions that consider the unique geographic context of each CDs.

Measuring variation in infant mortality and deaths of despair by US congressional district in Pennsylvania: a methodological case study.

Many ecological studies examine health outcomes and disparities using administrative boundaries such as census tracts, counties, or states. These boundaries help us to understand the patterning of health by place, along with impacts of policies implemented at these levels. However, additional geopolitical units (units with both geographic and political meaning), such as congressional districts (CDs), present further opportunities to connect research with public policy. Here we provide a step-by-step guide on how to conduct disparities-focused analysis at the CD level. As an applied case study, we use geocoded vital statistics data from 2010-2015 to examine levels of and disparities in infant mortality and deaths of despair in the 19US CDs of Pennsylvania for the 111th-112th (2009-2012) Congresses and 18 CDs for the 113th-114th (2013-2016) Congresses. We also provide recommendations for extending CD-level analysis to other outcomes, states, and geopolitical boundaries, such as state legislative districts. Increased surveillance of health outcomes at the CD level can help prompt policy action and advocacy and, hopefully, reduce rates of and disparities in adverse health outcomes.

A practical optimization framework for political redistricting: A case study in Arizona

Following the decennial census, each state in the U.S. redraws its congressional and state legislative district boundaries, which must satisfy various legal criteria. For example, Arizona’s Constitution describes six legal criteria, including contiguity, population balance, competitiveness, compactness, and the preservation of communities of interest, political subdivisions and majority–minority districts, each of which is to be enforced “to the extent practicable”. Optimization algorithms are well suited to draw district maps, although existing models and methods have limitations that inhibit their ability to draw legally-valid maps. Adapting existing optimization methods presents two major challenges: the complexity of modeling to achieve multiple and subjective criteria, and the computational intractability when dealing with large redistricting input graphs. In this paper, we present a multi-stage optimization framework tailored to redistricting in Arizona. This framework combines key features from existing methods, such as a multilevel algorithm that reduces graph input sizes and a larger local search neighborhood that encourages faster exploration of the solution space. This framework heuristically optimizes geographical compactness and political competitiveness while ensuring that other criteria in Arizona’s Constitution are satisfied relative to existing norms. Compared to Arizona’s enacted map (CD118) to be used until 2032, the most compact map produced by the algorithm is 41% more compact, and the most competitive map has five more competitive districts. To enable accessibility and to promote future research, we have created Optimap, a publicly accessible tool to interact with a part of this framework. Beyond the creation of these maps, this case study demonstrates the positive impact of adapting optimization-based methodologies for political redistricting in practice.

Digital Literacy of Elementary Teachers and its Relation to Performing their Various School Roles Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic

Amidst the lengthy suspension of in-person classes brought by the unprecedented pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), widespread adoption of digital technology in education has become critical. However, there is a growing global worry about teachers' digital literacy. The purpose of this study, which was done in four core schools in Bataan's second congressional district, Philippines, is to investigate public elementary school teachers' digital literacy and its impact on the various duties and responsibilities they take on. The study included 225 teachers, four ICT coordinators, and four school leaders from the identified central schools. There were significant disparities in the assessment of digital literacy and performance among the three groups of respondents (teachers, ICT coordinators, and school principals). Furthermore, while there was no significant association established between teachers' characteristics (including age and sex) and their digital literacy, a substantial relationship was discovered between teachers' digital literacy and their overall performance. This study provides useful insights into the landscape of digital literacy among elementary teachers during the COVID-19 pandemic, with implications for educational policies, professional development, and the efficient integration of digital tools in many school roles.