Conflict-prone Countries Research Articles

The justice versus amnesty approach to resolving the protracted conflict in the Central African Republic

This study aims at the debate of promoting peace and achieving justice in conflict-prone countries. The debate’s core is whether justice should be traded for peacemaking. Whether or not, justice or peace should take precedence over each other? Proponents of peace over justice contend that pursuing justice will lead to more conflict in an already precarious situation. Their counterparts hold that durable peace cannot be achieved without justice. Eight African states, including the ‘phantom’ state of Central African Republic (CAR), have applied amnesties in resolving their conflicts. The research focuses on how amnesties and criminal trials have attained the goals of sustainable peace, deterrence and political stability in CAR. This paper views justice as an essential aspect of achieving peace, not solely in retributive terms. Amnesty is analysed from the lens of international law, which obligates states to extradite or prosecute and punish perpetrators of international crimes. The research limits its analysis to accountability for international crimes and amnesty approach through negotiated post-conflict peace agreements in CAR. The study argues that justice options provide a better opportunity for a comprehensive and durable peace in CAR than amnesty, which promotes impunity and guarantees momentary peace and subsequent relapse to conflict.

Childhood exposure to armed conflict and nutritional health outcomes in Nigeria

BackgroundArmed conflicts are associated with an increased risk of food insecurity, the leading cause of malnutrition in low-and-middle-income countries. Multiple studies have uncovered significant influences of childhood malnutrition on children’s overall health and development. As a result, it is increasingly important to understand how childhood experience of armed conflict intersects with childhood malnutrition in conflict-prone countries like Nigeria. This study examined the association between different measures of childhood experiences of armed conflicts and the nutritional health outcomes of children aged 36–59 months.MethodsWe used data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey linked with Uppsala Conflict Data Program Geo-Referenced Events Dataset using geographic identifiers. Multilevel regression models were fitted on a sample of 4226 children aged 36–59 months.ResultsThe prevalence of stunting, underweight and wasting was 35%, 20% and 3%, respectively. Armed conflicts were mostly recorded in the North-eastern states of Borno (222 episodes) and Adamawa (24 episodes). Exposure to armed conflicts ranged from 0 (no experience of armed conflict) to 3.75 conflicts per month since the child’s birth. An increase in the frequency of armed conflicts is associated with increased odds of childhood stunting [AOR = 2.52, 95%CI: 1.96–3.25] and underweight [AOR = 2.33, 95%CI: 1.19–4.59] but not wasting. The intensity of armed conflict was only marginally associated with stunting and underweight but not wasting. Longer conflicts that occurred in the last year were also associated with the odds of stunting [AOR = 1.25, 95%CI: 1.17–1.33] and underweight [AOR = 1.19, 95%CI: 1.11–1.26] but not wasting.ConclusionChildhood exposure to armed conflict is associated with long-term malnutrition in children aged 36–59 months in Nigeria. Strategies that aim to end childhood malnutrition could target children exposed to armed conflicts.

CEO compensation, governance structure, and foreign direct investment in conflict-prone countries

Despite the apparent risks associated with an investment in conflict-prone countries, these countries still attract substantial investment from multinational enterprises (MNEs). Combining prospect theory and agency theory on principal–principal conflict, this study examines how CEO compensation affects investment decisions in conflict-prone countries. Using a panel dataset of 1036 privately owned Chinese MNEs from 2010 to 2019, we find that undercompensated CEOs are more likely to invest in conflict-prone countries as a means of compensating for the lack of remuneration. This effect, however, is contingent on the governance structures of their firms. We argue that the presence of more independent directors on boards makes undercompensated CEOs more likely to invest in conflict-prone regions. In contrast, the presence of more supervisors on boards makes undercompensated CEOs less likely to invest in such regions.

Афганистан и Мали: попытки ФРГ реализовать стратегию “антиухода”

Against the backdrop of the modern Cold War, the instability threats the sources of which are located in the conflictprone countries of Asia and Africa have not disappeared. One of the key tendencies is the structures of international terrorism in Western Africa, Horn of Africa, Near and partly Middle East being still in force. The article explores Germany’s attempts to keep the strategic presence in Afghanistan and Mali in the context of previous efforts to resolve armed conflicts here. The choice is due to the FRG being in a position of moving towards the role of a full-fledged global player in political and military spheres. The “rising” power becomes especially susceptible both to the risks of instability projected on it and its partners, and to the loss of strategic influence in various regions of the world. The author explores in a comparative way different aspects of German participation in the missions in Afghanistan (ISAF, then “Resolute Support”) and Mali (EUTM Mali and MINUSMA in parallel). The paper highlights political and military factors which determine the scale and forms of the Bundeswehr usage in the peacekeeping sphere during different stages of the resolution process. In Mali, Germany has tried to take into account and correct the mistakes in security sector reform conducted in Afghanistan. But at the same time, there were quite a few “narrow places” of EUTM Mali activity with FRG’s role as a framework nation. The first factor of German positions’ strategic vulnerability is dependence on a partner fully engaged in anti-terrorist combat operations. The second one is the critical perception of German efforts by the forces which have come to power in Afghanistan (Taliban) and Mali (local military officers) and have preferred the nationalization of armed conflict resolution. In this regard, the article concludes about German “anti-withdrawal” strategy.

W]hat Lies Beneath: Using Latent Networks to Improve Spatial Predictions

Abstract Spatial interdependencies commonly drive the spread of violence in civil conflict. To address such interdependence, scholars often use spatial lags to model the diffusion of violence, but this requires an explicit operationalization of the connectivity matrices that represent the spread of conflict. Unfortunately, in many cases, there are multiple competing processes that facilitate the spread of violence making it difficult to identify the true data-generating process. We show how a network-driven methodology can allow us to account for the spread of violence, even in the cases where we cannot directly measure the factors that drive diffusion. To do so, we estimate a latent connectivity matrix that captures a variety of possible diffusion patterns. We use this procedure to study intrastate conflict in eight conflict-prone countries and show how our framework enables substantially better predictive performance than canonical spatial-lag measures. We also investigate the circumstances under which canonical spatial lags suffice and those under which a latent network approach is beneficial.

A Pandemic of Violence? The Impact of COVID-19 on Conflict

Abstract This article examines the impact and repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of armed conflict around the world. It argues that there are two main ways in which the pandemic is likely to fuel, rather than mitigate, conflict and engender further violence in conflict-prone countries: (1) the exacerbating effect of COVID-19 on the underlying root causes of conflict and (2) the exploitation of the crisis by governments and non-state actors who have used the coronavirus to gain political advantage and territorial control. The article uses data collected in real-time by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and the Johns Hopkins University to illustrate the unfolding and spatial distribution of conflict events before and during the pandemic and combine this with three brief case studies of Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Libya. Descriptive evidence shows how levels of violence have remained unabated or even escalated during the first five months of the pandemic and how COVID-19-related social unrest has spread beyond conflict-affected countries.

Together We Stand, Divided We Fall: Real Options in Conflict-Prone Countries

Despite the proliferation of real options reasoning as a strategic tool to navigate uncertainties, we still know little about the mechanisms through which different types of options interact to determine the value of one another. To address this shortcoming, we examine how the availability of switching options determine the value of exercising an option to alter scale. We employ this concept in the context of multinational enterprises (MNEs) with foreign subsidiaries facing violent conflict risks—settings where firms often exercise contracting options to minimize their exposure to risks while preserving the opportunity to re-expand. We investigate how the value of contracting an option, as a subsidiary survival strategy, is determined by the availability of two conditions that enable the exercise of switching options: the structural configuration of the subsidiary’s MNE network and the operational overlap between the focal subsidiary and the same-parent subsidiaries. Our analysis of 1,147 Japanese foreign subsidiaries operating in 12 countries from 1991 to 2014 suggests that contraction alone may not be a sufficient strategy but its use in conjunction with extensive MNE network structure and operational overlap with same-parent subsidiaries may serve as an effective means to mitigate negative exposure and enhance survivability in conflict-prone countries.

Rethinking the Relationship between Inclusive Institutions and Political Violence

In this paper we empirically reexamine the debate over the conflict reducing properties of inclusive political institutions. We examine the purported violence reducing effects of proportional representation (PR) electoral systems, parliamentarism, and federalism, conditioning their effects on ethnic fractionalization and whether a country is conflict prone. In other words, are these institutions more effective in countries that have already experienced major conflict or are they more effective in preventing conflict in countries that have not experienced major conflict? Using a data set that includes a sample of 81 countries and 2488 observations from 1973 to 2018, we test the conditional effects of proportional representation electoral systems, parliamentarism and federalism conditioning these by ethnicity and whether the country has experienced a major conflict (i.e., civil war). We find that these institutions have little effect on reducing the number of riots or political deaths, but PR electoral systems reduces ethnic violence when ethnic fractionalization is high. On the other hand PR electoral systems and parliamentarism reduce ethnic violence in conflict prone countries, but federalism increases the likelihood of ethnic violence. We discuss the implications of these findings with regard to arguments regarding inclusive power sharing arrangements and violence in post conflict environments.

The impact of civil conflict on infant and child malnutrition, Nigeria, 2013.

The new millennium brought renewed attention to improving the health of women and children. In this same period, direct deaths from conflicts have declined worldwide, but civilian deaths associated with conflicts have increased. Nigeria is among the most conflict‐prone countries in Sub‐Saharan Africa, especially recently with the Boko Haram insurgency in the north. This paper uses two data sources, the 2013 Demographic and Health Survey for Nigeria and the Social Conflict Analysis Database, linked by geocode, to study the effect of these conflicts on infant and young child acute malnutrition (or wasting). We show a strong association in 2013 between living close to a conflict zone and acute malnutrition in Nigerian children, with larger effects for rural children than urban children. This is related to the severity of the conflict, measured both in terms of the number of conflict deaths and the length of time the child was exposed to conflict. Undoubtedly, civil conflict is limiting the future prospects of Nigerian children and the country's economic growth. In Nigeria, conflicts in the north are expected to continue with sporadic attacks and continued damaged infrastructure. Thus, Nigerian children, innocent victims of the conflict, will continue to suffer the consequences documented in this study.

Nutrition Specific Interventions for Management of Malnutrition in Eastern Equatoria state, South Sudan – Challenges and Lessons for Non-Governmental Organizations

Background Decades long efforts have been exerted by Non-Governmental Organizations in partnership and collaboration with Governments, UN agencies and Donor communities to address malnutrition through nutrition specific interventions in resource poor and conflict prone countries. The impact of nutrition specific interventions cannot be underscored. In this paper, we argue that whereas nutrition specific responses do tackle undernutrition among vulnerable populations, they often tend to be limited in scope and sustainability. Method This was a cross-sectional study that employed qualitative techniques for data collection. Primary data was obtained from purposively selected NGOs (n=17) that implement nutrition programs in Eastern Equatoria state through key informant interviews. This was supplemented by secondary data from existing literature. Data was summarized, triangulated and analyzed for contents to generate the themes in line with study objectives. Results This study has shown that although nutrition specific responses play a vital role in tackling malnutrition, they often tend to be limited in scope. Tackling all the root causal factors of malnutrition remains a challenge. Such challenges often resulted into relapse despite reported high proportion (at least 75%) of children in treatment programs being discharged as cured. Conclusion In a short run, nutrition specific interventions can be effective in saving lives of malnourished individuals. However, there is need to ensure that both nutrition specific and sensitive interventions are given proportional investment priorities. This can be done by allocating adequate resources to both interventions in addition to building resilience of communities to local shocks. Otherwise, nutrition specific interventions will continue for many more years to come.

Building conflict uncertainty into electricity planning: A South Sudan case study

This paper explores electricity planning strategies in South Sudan under future conflict uncertainty. A stochastic energy system optimization model that explicitly considers the possibility of armed conflict leading to electric power generator damage is presented. Strategies that hedge against future conflict have the greatest economic value in moderate conflict-related damage scenarios by avoiding expensive near-term investments in infrastructure that may be subsequently damaged. Model results show that solar photovoltaics can play a critical role in South Sudan's future electric power system. In addition to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and increasing access to electricity, this analysis suggests that solar can be used to hedge against economic losses incurred by conflict. While this analysis focuses on South Sudan, the analytical framework can be applied to other conflict-prone countries.

Netherlands: The Compound Company – plastic compounds

Despite the apparent risks associated with an investment in conflict-prone countries, these countries still attract substantial investment from multinational enterprises (MNEs). Combining prospect theory and agency theory on principal–principal conflict, this study examines how CEO compensation affects investment decisions in conflict-prone countries. Using a panel dataset of 1036 privately owned Chinese MNEs from 2010 to 2019, we find that undercompensated CEOs are more likely to invest in conflict-prone countries as a means of compensating for the lack of remuneration. This effect, however, is contingent on the governance structures of their firms. We argue that the presence of more independent directors on boards makes undercompensated CEOs more likely to invest in conflict-prone regions. In contrast, the presence of more supervisors on boards makes undercompensated CEOs less likely to invest in such regions.

Clariant raises prices for plastics masterbatch and organic pigments by up to 15%

Despite the apparent risks associated with an investment in conflict-prone countries, these countries still attract substantial investment from multinational enterprises (MNEs). Combining prospect theory and agency theory on principal–principal conflict, this study examines how CEO compensation affects investment decisions in conflict-prone countries. Using a panel dataset of 1036 privately owned Chinese MNEs from 2010 to 2019, we find that undercompensated CEOs are more likely to invest in conflict-prone countries as a means of compensating for the lack of remuneration. This effect, however, is contingent on the governance structures of their firms. We argue that the presence of more independent directors on boards makes undercompensated CEOs more likely to invest in conflict-prone regions. In contrast, the presence of more supervisors on boards makes undercompensated CEOs less likely to invest in such regions.

The Impact of Civil Conflict on Child Malnutrition and Mortality, Nigeria, 2002-2013

The new millennium brought renewed attention to improving the health of women and children. In this same period, direct deaths from conflicts have declined worldwide, but civilian deaths associated with conflicts have increased. Nigeria is among the most conflict-prone countries in sub-Saharan Africa, especially recently with the Boko Haram insurgency in the north. This paper uses two data sources, the 2013 Demographic and Health Survey for Nigeria and the Social Conflict Analysis Database, linked by geocode, to study the effect of these conflicts on child health. We show a strong association between living close to a conflict zone and acute malnutrition in Nigerian children in 2013. This is related to the severity of the conflict, measured both in terms of the number of conflict deaths and the length of time the child was exposed to conflict. The association with mortality is much less clear, with essentially no significant relationship to conflict detected using these data for the period studied. Undoubtedly civil conflict is limiting the future prospects of Nigerian children and the country’s economic growth. In Nigeria conflicts in the north are expected to continue with sporadic attacks and continued damaged infrastructure. Thus, the children in Nigeria will continue to suffer the consequences documented in this study.

Social dynamics surrounding oil exploitation in Colombia: a case study of BP’s activities in Casanare

Esta investigación interdisciplinar tiene por objetivo exponer la responsabilidad de las compañías petroleras que operan en países con tendencia al conflicto sobre la dinámica del conflicto en sí mismo y las violaciones de los derechos humanos. La investigación evalúa, en particular, el papel de la industria petrolífera en la dinámica del conflicto en Colombia. Basándose en dos viajes por separado a Colombia y las entrevistas realizadas allí, este trabajo defiende que las actividades petrolíferas han contribuido significativamente a exacerbar la violencia en las zonas productoras de petróleo y que la mayoría de las compañías petroleras han respondido de forma inapropiada a los riesgos sociales resultantes de operar en las regiones destruidas por la guerra. El estudio hace hincapié en la necesidad de un análisis de campo más profundo sobre el papel que juega el sector privado internacional en Colombia y la efectividad de las respuestas corporativas para mitigar o minimizar los efectos desestabilizadores de la actividad comercial. El análisis de la investigación se basa en el estudio del caso del departamento de Casanare que subraya la complejidad de estos temas en relación con las experiencias de BPXC.Publicación en línea: 11 diciembre 2017

Lost in Implementation? Where is Gender in the Somali Compact for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding?

The 2011 New Deal for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding is intended to spare the world’s poorest and most conflict-prone countries the costs associated with negotiating separate arrangements on a mul...

Combining Behavioral and Structural Predictors of Violent Civil Conflict: Getting Scholars and Policymakers to Talk to Each Other

Large- N studies of civil war overwhelmingly consider the state-specific structural conditions that make conflict likely. Meanwhile, policymakers often ignore these factors and instead search for patterns among the behavioral triggers of violence. This article combines these approaches. I use conflict narratives from the International Crisis Group’s CrisisWatch publications to cross-validate structural analyses of civil conflict and confirm the mechanisms that lead to outbreaks of violence in conflict-prone countries. I then correct for selection bias in the narrative data with an underlying model of conflict likelihood. I find that several indicators thought to be causally related to civil conflict do indeed continue to have an effect after selection. However, the narrative data overemphasizes both the importance of several low-intensity, separatist conflicts within developed democracies and the potential for conflict among oil-rich states. These analyses highlight the importance of combining structural, large- N analyses with qualitative assessments of conflict zones. My findings also provide support for a state-capacity explanation of conflict behavior.

The effects of inter-state conflicts on foreign investment flows to the developing world: Enduring vs ephemeral risk of conflicts

How do inter-state conflicts affect foreign investment flows to developing countries? Conventional wisdom says conflicts disrupt economic interactions. This article develops and tests two competing causal mechanisms of the wisdom by focusing on foreign investment flows to developing countries. The first hypothesis states that conflicts carry enduring risk to foreign investors, making conflict-prone countries persistently less attractive. The second hypothesis says that the risk of conflict is ephemeral, allowing foreign investment to recover during peace-time. A monadic analysis of 95 developing countries from 1980 to 2000 provides strong evidence for the enduring risk hypothesis. However, the finding is limited by both the level of conflict hostility and the ex post immobility of foreign investment. The enduring risk of conflicts is significant for both actual warfare rather than use of force, and foreign direct investment (FDI) rather than foreign portfolio investment (FPI). The finding is robust in a series of subsample analyses, which reflect the distinctive experiences of developing countries in the late 20th century.

Considering power system planning in fragile and conflict states

Traditional methods of energy planning are likely to provide results that may be inappropriate in fragile and conflict-prone countries. The risks of violence and damage, or significant delays and cancellations in infrastructure development, are rife in these states. Thus, least-cost planning processes must explicitly address the inherent risks. While there are numerous statistical methods for dealing with decision making under uncertainty, few of them have been applied to power system planning and tailored for these situations. We present a general theoretical framing of the issue and illustrate application of a very simple method to a case study of the Republic of South Sudan. We find that, in general, the resilience aspects, combined with modular and incremental benefits of distributed generation technologies and systems, emerge as attractive options if the various risks of infrastructure development are included in modelling techniques.

Post-Conflict Leadership Key to Building Sustainable Peace and Development

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted unanimously by the United Nations General Assembly in September 2015, declares its ultimate goal as transforming the world. The declaration states rightly that “There can be no sustainable development without peace and no peace without sustainable development.” The fact that this goal was placed only 16th out of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) should not underestimate the importance of transforming conflict-prone countries into peaceful nations engaged in the pursuit of sustainable development.