Conditions Of High Uncertainty Research Articles

Bayesian-informed fatigue life prediction in shallow shell structures with the dual boundary element method

This study introduces an innovative approach for statistically inferring the Equivalent Initial Flaw Size Distribution (EIFSD) in shallow shell structures with the aim of predicting fatigue life. The proposed approach integrates Bayesian inference and surrogate modelling techniques, and utilizes a long crack growth model. The EIFSD is crucial for estimating fatigue life and ensuring structural durability. To showcase the proposed methodology, a numerical example featuring a fuselage window structure under multi-axial loading, employing the Dual Boundary Element Method (DBEM) for crack growth modelling, is presented. Efficiency gains in the inference of the EIFSD are achieved through the development of surrogate models, notably a Co-Kriging model that significantly reduces computational time and outperforms a Kriging model in error reduction. The study explores two assumptions for inspection data sourcing, leading to enhanced methodological effectiveness across varying uncertainty levels. It considers the separate effects of Paris Law constants and loading conditions under increased uncertainty, presenting cases that demonstrate the Co-Kriging model’s high accuracy and computational efficiency. The proposed methodology’s robustness is further validated by assessing the impact of prior distribution quality on Bayesian inference, showing the method’s adaptability to high uncertainty while maintaining a good level of accuracy. This study also demonstrates an approach for fatigue life estimation of structures using the inferred EIFSD. By evaluating the structure up to a critical crack length, the methodology allows for the accurate estimation of fatigue life, which, in turn, facilitates the determination of optimal inspection intervals. Notably, under conditions of high uncertainty, the method showcased a maximum difference of 1.51% in the estimated fatigue life when compared to the true EIFSD, underscoring the technique’s high accuracy and reliability.

Addressing Launch and Deployment Uncertainties in UAVs with ESO-Based Attitude Control

This paper describes the design and implementation of a novel three-axis attitude control autopilot scheme for tube-launched, air-deployed UAVs. In early flight tests, various factors, such as model uncertainties during launch, aerodynamic uncertainties, geometric parameter changes during deployment, and significant uncertainties in booster rocket installation, exceeded the control capabilities of the attitude autopilot, causing flight instability. In order to address these issues, a numerical simulation model of the full launch process considering deviations was established based on early flight tests. A cascade attitude controller was then designed using an extended state observer (ESO), and the boundedness of control errors under unknown bounded disturbances was theoretically proven, providing requirements for the parameter tuning of the cascade controller. Comparative experiments and a second flight test both demonstrate that the ESO-based cascade attitude controller exhibits strong feedforward disturbance compensation under high-uncertainty conditions, effectively achieving stable control within the flight envelope.

A small team as an effective group and center of leadership

Building an ideal small team capable of solving problems that are beyond the capacity of an ordinary group of specialists is a long and exhausting process. This article presents the ability to work in a small team as the most valuable personality trait. Describing the small team philosophy as highly effective, the author of the article presents it as a reference model of gifted and talented individuals, a well-coordinated combat unit, a special centre of leadership, flexibility and psychological compatibility. Revealing the effectiveness of a small team in the symbolic range of two images of “Simplicity”-“Complexity”, the author derives the symbolic rule of “Simplicity”: the effectiveness of success is rooted in the ability to work only with small teams of smart people. It is proved that as soon as the number of people in a team increases, “Complexity” is automatically introduced. The article also describes the philosophy of a two-person team. It is proved how much more effective, constructive and motivated it can be compared to a large team. It is highlighted that the key to the success of a two-person team is the holistic dominance of five components: 1) psychological safety; 2) reliability; 3) structure and clarity; 4) awareness; 5) influence. It is found out that a small team is a homogeneous combat unit, since it is designed to promote the origination of a new, emergent mind, the need for which increases significantly in the conditions of high danger, constant change and uncertainty. The author emphasises that the coordinated work of a small team in a dangerous environment requires rapid adaptability, constant reassessment of the situation, discussion and coordination. In such a team, its members, sending signals to each other every minute, decoding the responses, should understand every step and intention of their partner, as this is the key to life and victory.

A small team as an effective group and center of leadership

Building an ideal small team capable of solving problems that are beyond the capacity of an ordinary group of specialists is a long and exhausting process. This article presents the ability to work in a small team as the most valuable personality trait. Describing the small team philosophy as highly effective, the author of the article presents it as a reference model of gifted and talented individuals, a well-coordinated combat unit, a special centre of leadership, flexibility and psychological compatibility. Revealing the effectiveness of a small team in the symbolic range of two images of “Simplicity”-“Complexity”, the author derives the symbolic rule of “Simplicity”: the effectiveness of success is rooted in the ability to work only with small teams of smart people. It is proved that as soon as the number of people in a team increases, “Complexity” is automatically introduced. The article also describes the philosophy of a two-person team. It is proved how much more effective, constructive and motivated it can be compared to a large team. It is highlighted that the key to the success of a two-person team is the holistic dominance of five components: 1) psychological safety; 2) reliability; 3) structure and clarity; 4) awareness; 5) influence. It is found out that a small team is a homogeneous combat unit, since it is designed to promote the origination of a new, emergent mind, the need for which increases significantly in the conditions of high danger, constant change and uncertainty. The author emphasises that the coordinated work of a small team in a dangerous environment requires rapid adaptability, constant reassessment of the situation, discussion and coordination. In such a team, its members, sending signals to each other every minute, decoding the responses, should understand every step and intention of their partner, as this is the key to life and victory.

Implementation of artificial intelligence methods to the processes of automated metrics forecasting for software systems development projects

The subject matter of the article is the process of automated forecasting of project metrics for software development projects that are typically subject to evaluation. It also covers AI methods and models that can be used to generate basic roadmap templates and operational work lists, as well as alternative estimates depending on the context. The goal of the work is to study the foundations of creating a system for automated predicting of alternative evaluations of a software product. The following tasks were solved in the article: determining the stages of evaluation related to the assessment of alternatives in the life cycle of a software development project; investigating the problems of predicting and the main factors affecting the final indicators; exploring predicting methods that can be used to implement multivariate assessment of a software development project. The following methods are used: methods for evaluating and predicting labor costs in software development projects, machine and deep learning, and assessing their effectiveness for solving the prediction problem. The following results were obtained: the conceptual foundations for creating automated evaluation and prediction systems based on the analysis of the effectiveness of selected machine learning models were determined, the areas of application for artificial intelligence methods in the process of evaluating software development project indicators were identified, the performance indicators of various machine learning models were assessed based on certain model evaluation parameters that characterize prediction accuracy; a conceptual architecture of a project roadmap generation software tool based on the GPT language model was proposed. Conclusions: the use of machine and deep learning methods can improve the accuracy of predictions for key project indicators, provide the possibility of flexible generation of various alternative roadmap templates and operational work lists, making the planning and management process more efficient and transparent under conditions of high uncertainty of project requirements.

Управление образовательным процессом субъектов креативных индустрий

The article delineates a number of characteristic features in managing the educational process within the realm of creative industries. They are defined according to the essential features of the key concepts “educational process management” and “subjects of creative industries”. They encompass a range of common traits, including issues of management organization levels, functions, methods, principles, etc. The fundamental distinctions of these components are predominantly shaped by the specific nature of creative industries subjects’ activities in the educational sphere, which typically unfold non-linearly and under conditions of high risk, uncertainty, and complexity in predicting outcomes. This is a sphere of activity oriented towards systemic innovation implementation, seeking and utilizing opportunities to satisfy human desires and needs through the realization of unique educational products, including those in the realm of additional education for both children and adults. The outcome here entails the creation, promotion, and dissemination and/or implementation of creative products in the field of additional education. In conclusion, the management of educational processes in creative industries requires a nuanced understanding of the unique challenges and opportunities inherent in this domain. By leveraging flexible and adaptive management strategies, educators and industry stakeholders can foster creativity, innovation, and collaboration, thereby enriching the educational experience and driving positive outcomes for all stakeholders involved. Further research is needed to explore specific management approaches and interventions tailored to the evolving needs of creative industries education.

Impact of sentiment tendency of media coverage on corporate green total factor productivity: The moderating role of environmental uncertainty

In the context of China's carbon neutrality goal and increasing environmental responsibilities, this study examines the impact of media sentiment on Corporate Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP), especially considering environmental uncertainty. Utilizing data from the CNRDS financial news database and employing the non-radial SBM-ML index to assess GTFP, the research explores how positive, neutral, and negative media coverage influences corporate sustainability behaviors. Results indicate that positive media coverage significantly enhances GTFP during corporate growth and maturation phases by improving public perception and investor confidence. In contrast, negative media coverage tends to reduce GTFP, particularly under conditions of high environmental uncertainty, highlighting the challenges during vulnerable periods. This study contributes to understanding the nuanced effects of media sentiment on corporate sustainability practices and underscores the importance of managing media relations strategically according to corporate lifecycle stages and environmental contexts to optimize sustainability outcomes. The findings offer valuable insights for businesses to align their media strategies with sustainability goals and for policymakers to develop regulations that harness media influence to support corporate environmental accountability. By strategically managing media narratives and fostering a supportive policy environment, corporations can leverage the power of media to drive their sustainability agendas and contribute to the achievement of national and global environmental targets.

Managing Risk and Uncertainty in the Context of Child Protection Decision Making

Abstract Uncertainty is a concept related to, but distinct from, risk. Risk has been defined as the portion of the continuum from complete certainty to total ignorance that can be estimated using tools of probability. Uncertainty, on the other hand lies in the portion of the continuum of knowability that is incalculable and uncontrollable. It is well established that estimating risk probabilistically in the child protection context is unreliable and prone to error under conditions of high uncertainty—particularly when making decisions on the long-term needs of a child. This is true whether risk is estimated using professional judgement, statistical algorithms or a combination of both. In other disciplines, tools have been developed that transition decision making away from the probabilistic reasoning associated with judgments of risk (the ‘Predict and Act’ paradigm) to procedures that do not rely on the probabilistic estimation of risk (the ‘Monitor and Adapt’ paradigm). A pragmatic approach to adapting existing assessment procedures developed within the Predict and Act paradigm to align more closely with the Monitor and Adapt approach is presented. It is suggested that a key component of such an adaptation would be integrating case formulation into routine child protection practice.

The Role of Stimulus Uncertainty and Curiosity in Attention Control.

Most cognitive psychological studies assume that participants in lab-based tasks maintain a single goal based on task instructions. However, people can be motivated by other factors, such as curiosity. We examined if people attend to seemingly task-irrelevant information out of curiosity by manipulating stimulus uncertainty in a cueing paradigm. Participants were presented with an abrupt-onset cue followed by a letter target (E or H). Next, a mask either at the target location (low uncertainty) or at all four locations (high uncertainty) was shown. We expected high uncertainty to induce a state of curiosity that in turn influences the processing of the cue. Cueing effects were greater in the high-uncertainty condition compared to the low-uncertainty condition. In Experiment 2, we additionally elicited self-report ratings on curiosity. In sum, target-specific uncertainty leads to greater processing of task-irrelevant peripheral cues across two experiments. We tentatively conclude that uncertainty modulates attention control and further research is necessary to examine if this is indeed due to curiosity induced by uncertainty.

Uncertain world: How children's curiosity and intolerance of uncertainty relate to their behaviour and emotion under uncertainty.

Curiosity and intolerance of uncertainty (IU) are both thought to drive information seeking but may have different affective profiles; curiosity is often associated with positive affective responses to uncertainty and improved learning outcomes, whereas IU is associated with negative affective responses and anxiety. Curiosity and IU have not previously been examined together in children but may both play an important role in understanding how children respond to uncertainty. Our research aimed to examine how individual differences in parent-reported curiosity and IU were associated with behavioural and emotional responses to uncertainty. Children aged 8 to 12 (n = 133) completed a game in which they were presented with an array of buttons on the screen that, when clicked, played neutral or aversive sounds. Children pressed buttons (information seeking) and rated their emotions and worry under conditions of high and low uncertainty. Facial expressions were also monitored for affective responses. Analyses revealed that children sought more information under high uncertainty than low uncertainty trials and that more curious children reported feeling happier. Contrary to expectations, IU and curiosity were not related to the number of buttons children pressed, nor to their self-reported emotion or worry. However, exploratory analyses suggest that children who are high in IU may engage in more information seeking that reflects checking or safety-seeking than those who are low in IU. In addition, our findings suggest that there may be age-related change in the effects of IU on worry, with IU more strongly related to worry in uncertain situations for older children than younger children.

The beneficial role of curiosity on route memory in children

IntroductionThere has been a growing interest in the role of innate curiosity on facets of human cognition, such as in spatial learning and memory. Yet, it is unclear how state level curiosity evoked by the current environment could interact differentially with trait curiosity, to impact spatial memory performance.MethodsWe assessed the influence of trait and state curiosity on route memory. Forty-two 10-year-old children with low and high-trait curiosity (20 Females; 22 Males) actively explored virtual environments that elicited varying levels of uncertainty (i.e., state-curiosity).ResultsAs trait curiosity increased, so did memory performance in low and high uncertainty conditions, suggesting that high-curiosity children can better recruit cognitive resources within non-optimal environments. Children with high compared to low trait curiosity also reported greater feelings of presence during exploration. Importantly, in environments with medium uncertainty, children with low trait curiosity were able to perform as well as those with high curiosity.DiscussionResults show that individual differences in trait curiosity influence route learning and these interact dynamically with state-curiosity invoked within different environments.

How would the war and the pandemic affect the stock and cryptocurrency cross-market linkages?

This paper studies the cross-market linkages between six international stock markets and the two major cryptocurrency markets during the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By employing the local (partial) Gaussian correlation approach, we find that during the Covid-19 pandemic period, both cryptocurrency markets possess limited diversification and safe haven properties, which further diminish during the war. Bootstrap tests for contagion suggest that during the Covid-19 pandemic, the East Asian markets lead the transmission of contagion towards the two cryptocurrency markets. During the Russian invasion, the US stock market emerges as the principal transmitter of contagion. Uncovering the role of pandemic (Infectious Disease EMV Index) and geopolitical risk (GPR index) induced uncertainties, we find that under conditions of high uncertainty and falling prices, the dependency between the US and UK stock markets with both cryptocurrency markets increases considerably. The latter is more profound during the Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Our findings are useful for investors in their search for understanding the differences in asymmetric connectedness between markets during extreme events.

ПРОФЕССИОНАЛЬНАЯ НАДЕЖНОСТЬ КАК КЛЮЧЕВАЯ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА В МОДЕЛИ ЛИЧНОСТИ СОВРЕМЕННОГО СПЕЦИАЛИСТА

The post-industrial and digital development of society is characterized by conditions of high variability, uncertainty and chaos. The entry of network technologies and resources into all spheres of life, the technologization of production and management processes create the prerequisites for the emergence of risks of a different nature in all types of professional activities and social relations. This situation complicates the requirements for a modern specialist, requiring them not only to have subject knowledge and professionally oriented competencies, but also to have developed abilities for the active and transformative development of new techniques and technological solutions, a predictive assessment of possible risks and personal responsibility for the consequences of their choice in non-standard situations. The entry of the digital component is changing the organizational and technological aspects in the field of vocational education, significantly expanding the boundaries of traditional forms of education. The new psychological and pedagogical conditions of the open educational space have an impact on the quality of the educational process and the results of professional training, producing the negative effects of informatization of the education sector and developing the problem of educational risks (vital, psychological, social). The inclusion of the concept of "professional reliability" in the categorical space of pedagogical science is due to its content, which determines the correspondence of the qualities of the subject of professional activity with rapidly changing conditions for the implementation of professional activity. Professional reliability is a key and integrative characteristic in the model of a digital specialist, the content and structural content of which is determined by the specifics and features of a particular professional activity. The structure of professional reliability of specialists in railway transport is represented by a set of motivational-value, activity-technological and reflexive components. Experimental work proved the effectiveness of the developed didactic system for the formation of professional reliability of specialists in railway transport.

РЕГУЛЮВАННЯ БАНКІВСЬКОЇ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ В УКРАЇНІ У КРИЗОВІ ПЕРІОДИ

In a market economy, banks have extremely large opportunities to influence economic processes, which necessitates the regulation of their activities. The need to regulate banking activities is especially acute during the period of crisis in the country's economy, as banking activities are characterized by a much larger set of risks, which leads to its increased financial vulnerability. The modern banking system of Ukraine has been operating in a full-scale war for more than two years, which increases the number of risks and threats to the banking sector in particular and the Ukrainian economy as a whole. An effective banking regulation system is key to the normal and stable functioning of the banking system in such conditions, as well as to a rapid post-war recovery. Despite the considerable number of works devoted to the study of various aspects of banking regulation in Ukraine in the context of the financial crisis, it should be noted that the new realities and challenges within which the banking system operates today necessitate further comprehensive research of approaches to regulating banking activities in times of crisis in the domestic financial market. The purpose of the article is to clarify the practical features of banking regulation in Ukraine in times of crisis, and also to identify the key areas for its improvement in the context of significant uncertainty and volatility of the environment. The article defines the purpose and role of banking regulation in Ukraine in times of crisis. The legal framework regulating the activities of banks is studied. The key changes made to the regulatory framework by the National Bank of Ukraine during the crisis period are characterized. Practical approaches to the regulation of banking activities in Ukraine are characterized based on the analysis of the main indicators characterizing the state of development of the banking sector in the context of crisis turning points in the history of the formation of our country, namely: during the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, the local financial crisis of 2014–2016, the economic crisis of 2020–2021 and the current crisis conditions. The article also identifies the peculiarities of banking regulation in Ukraine in times of crisis. It is emphasized that the functioning of the Deposit Guarantee Fund in Ukraine has a significant impact on the stability of the financial system due to its ability to neutralize shocks and/ or consequences of crises by preventing panic of depositors and rapid withdrawal of insolvent financial institutions from the market. The key directions for improving the regulation of banking activities in the current conditions of high uncertainty are substantiated.

CONFLICTS IN THE ORGANIZATION: HOW CAN MEDIATION AFFECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ORGANIZATION?

Modern organizations in conditions of globalization and high uncertainty have not only a complex development trajectory, but also face a high number of organizational conflicts (both internal and external). For the stable functioning of organizations and the creation of comfortable working conditions for their employees, it is important to implement effective methods of resolving conflict situations, such as mediation, into organizational practice. The aim of the paper is the systematization of the modern approaches to organizational conflicts and assessment of the mediation influence on organizational development on the example of the social and healthcare spheres. Also, research is devoted to identification of the main causes of conflicts in institutions of the social and healthcare, participants in conflicts, methods of their resolution. Empirical research was conducted with the involvement of 88 representatives of social and healthcare institutions from three regions of Ukraine (Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv). Within the framework of the research, the frequency and types of conflicts that arise in organizations of the social sphere and healthcare were studied. The causes of conflict situations are considered, the influence of conflicts on the development of modern organizations was determined. The key areas of work on conflict resolution and prevention were identified according to employees. The degree of awareness of employees regarding the mediation procedure was determined and the readiness for its implementation in organizations of the social sphere and healthcare was assessed. Directions for further research into the impact of conflicts and mediation on the development of modern organizations are proposed.

How Do Uncertainties Affect Supply-Chain Resilience? The Moderating Role of Information Sharing for Sustainable Supply-Chain Management

Uncertainties caused by many internal and external factors can lead to supply-chain disruptions, increasing the vulnerability and cost of operations. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic, whose worldwide emergence was not foreseen, has become a major threat to supply-chain resilience and has caused the disruption of global network connections. The purpose of this study is to examine in depth the impact of uncertainty on supply-chain resilience and to determine whether information sharing has a moderating effect on this interaction. The relationships proposed in the research model are tested through empirical analyses in SEM applied to 244 survey data points from internationally operating manufacturing firms in Turkey. The findings reveal several key insights. First, it is concluded that all dimensions of uncertainty, except technological uncertainty, negatively affect supply-chain resilience. Second, although no direct effect of technological uncertainty on supply-chain resilience is found, technological uncertainty has a negative effect on resilience when the moderating role of internal and supplier information sharing is taken into account. Low-level information sharing, as opposed to high-level, creates variation in the severity of supply-chain resilience at different levels of technological uncertainty. In addition, it is worth noting that a high level of information sharing with suppliers under high-uncertainty conditions negatively affects supply-chain resilience. The results of this study, conducted within the framework of the Contingent Resource-Based Theory, demonstrate compatibility with the theory. Based on all the findings, this study suggests that managers should adopt proactive strategies to maintain high supply-chain resilience, considering today’s highly uncertain conditions.

Exploring the interplay between entrepreneurial orientation, causation and effectuation under unexpected covid-19 uncertainty: Insights from large French banks

Entrepreneurial orientation, causation, and effectuation are the main strategies that firms use to address businesses under high uncertainty conditions. This study investigates the influence of internal (entrepreneurial orientation) and external contingency factors (the COVID-19 crisis) on both decision-making logics effectuation and causation in response to disruption. The study also investigates how and when the combination of effectual, causal, and entrepreneurial approaches positively affects bank outcomes. Using a qualitative method and data collected from five large French banks, the results revealed that under, high levels of uncertainty (i.e., the COVID-19 crisis), high entrepreneurial-oriented banks benefitted from the combination of effectuation and causation to produce favorable outcomes. In contrast, moderate or weak entrepreneurial-oriented banks, which tended to exploit the logic of effectuation driven by new resources or the resources at hand, showed inferior or even negative financial results compared to those with a strong entrepreneurial orientation.

Between short-term and medium-to-long-term responses: mapping the impact of COVID-19 on Italian universities

ABSTRACTThis paper presents an empirical analysis that maps the short-term and middle-to-long-term responses of Italian universities to the COVID-19 crisis by focussing on teaching activities. A representative sample of eighteen public universities was analysed to evaluate how they planned their teaching activities for the 2020–21 and 2021/2022 academic years and whether and how the pandemic pushed them to change their strategic plans for the following year. Based on a specific survey, an in-depth analysis of documents, and interviews, the findings reveal very similar short-term responses but three different types of medium-to-long-term responses: rebounding, proactive, and innovative. This empirical evidence indicates that scholars in higher education should heed the ways in which universities react and adapt in turbulent times when they have to make decisions under conditions of high uncertainty and recognize when crises can also become opportunities for change.

Russian industrial companies under the “second wave” of sanctions: Response strategies

The article presents initial findings of a research project aimed at analyzing the impact of the “second wave” of sanctions in 2022 on the behavior of Russian companies, assesses their actions to adapt to the new conditions. This paper is based on survey data collected from managers of 1860 Russian manufacturing companies between August and November 2022. Despite the severity and scope of the sanctions, one third of the companies did not take adaptation measures, particularly local, technologically backward firms without innovative activity. On the whole, firms integrated into the global economy reacted more actively to new threats than those confined to the domestic market. We found significant variability in companies’ responses to the sanctions shock. Four basic quasistrategies of firms’ response are identified. The first one involved reducing current activities, employment, and investments. These actions were most common in industries integrated into global value chains, notably automotive industry and wood processing. The second strategy included simplifying products to reduce dependence on imports, finding new markets, and changing investment directions — typically seen in pharmaceutical firms. The third one consisted of altering supply channels for materials and components, and it was frequently adopted by manufacturers of rubber and plastic products. The fourth strategy focused on digitalization, developing new products, and increasing interaction with authorities. This was characteristic of industries whose markets have carved out niches due to the exits of major foreign players, in particular, manufacture of furniture. We highlight the following recommendations for the state anti-crisis policy: In 2022, the relative success of companies’ adaptation was associated with the implementation of “easy” import substitution. However, in the future there will be a need to prioritize support for the development of domestic technologies and increased access to knowledge. In conditions of high uncertainty, it is crucial to assist companies in building their own value chains, and predictability of government actions appears to be a significant factor in enhancing private initiative.

Особенности внешних вызовов российским торговым компаниям в современных условиях взаимодействия с европейскими маркетплейсами

The modern socio-economic environment surrounding organizations engaged in trade, including branded clothing, is characterized to a certain extent by new, unexplored factors, which creates conditions of high uncertainty when making decisions on the further development of this business. These factors form certain groups of external challenges for Russian trade organizations, which, in turn, are in a state of search for effective tools for strategic development in the current conditions. The purpose of the study is to identify the key factors that create external challenges for trade organizations interacting with consumers through marketplaces. Research methods include comparative analysis of sources, statistical analysis of the state of the trade industry (branded clothing trade sector), PEST analysis of the external environment to find the most significant factors that form external challenges for the industry in question, as well as SNW and SWOT analysis. The result of the study is a list of key factors that form external challenges for trade organizations that interact with consumers through marketplaces and their strategic reactions to them. The authors come to the conclusion that modern trading organizations that trade through marketplaces should take into account, when planning their further development, the state and trend of certain key factors that can have both negative and positive effects.