Conditional Relative Survival Research Articles

Critical survival periods in prostate cancer in Sweden explored by conditional survival analysis.

We wanted to characterize conditional survival in prostate cancer (PC) in Sweden around and after 2005 when the vast increase in incidence due to the opportunistic testing for prostate specific antigen (PSA) culminated. We hypothesize that analyzing survival data during that time period may help interpret survival trends. We focus on stage-specific analysis using conditional survival in order to define the periods when deaths most commonly occurred. Data on PC patients were obtained from the Swedish cancer registry for analysis of 1-, 2.5- and 5-year relative survival and conditional relative survival between years 2004 and 2018. Tumor-node-metastatic stage classification at diagnosis was used to specify survival. Small improvements were observed in stage- and age-related relative survival duriring the study period. Applying conditional relative survival showed that survival in stage T3 up to 2.5 years was better than survival between years 2.5 and 5. Survival in stage T4 was approximately equal in the first and the subsequent 2.5-year period. For M1, the first 2.5 year survival period was worse than the subsequent one. The proportion of high risk and M1 disease in old patients (80+ years) remained very high and their survival improved only modestly. The data indicate that M1 metastases kill more patients in the first 2.5 years than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis; T4 deaths are equal in the two periods, and in T3 mortality in the first 2.5-year period is lower than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis. Conditional survival could be applied to explore critical survival periods even past 5 years after diagnoses and to monitor success in novel diagnostic and treatment practices. Improvement of survival in elderly patients may require clinical input.

ASO Visual Abstract: Conditional Relative Survival of Exocrine Pancreatic Cancer-A Population-Based Study.

ASO Visual Abstract: Conditional Relative Survival of Exocrine Pancreatic Cancer-A Population-Based Study.

Conditional Relative Survival of Exocrine Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study.

Adjusted prognostic information is important for treatment decisions, especially in elderly patients or survivors of exocrine pancreatic cancer (EPC). This study aims to investigate conditional relative survival (CS) rates and conditional probabilities of death in patients with EPC. Data of 77,975 individuals diagnosed with EPC between 1999 and 2019 were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry. CS was analyzed across strata including histology groups (ductal adenocarcinoma excluding cystic or mucinous [group I, PDAC] and ductal adenocarcinoma specified as mucinous or cystic adenocarcinoma [group II]), and age. For PDAC, the overall 5-year relative survival (RS) rate at diagnosis, 3-year CS of 2-year survivors, and 5-year CS of 5-year survivors were 8.5%, 50.1%, and 77.6%, respectively. Overall conditional probabilities of death were 85.2% (≥ 80 years), 73.5% (70-79 years), and 62.0% (60-69 years) in year 1 after diagnosis. Among patients with localized or regional stage who underwent surgery, conditional probabilities of death of ≥ 80, 70-79, and 60-69 years were 37.7%, 32.5%, and 22.6% in the first year, and 26.6%, 27.2%, and 26.0% in year 2 after diagnosis. Half of patients with EPC who survived for 2 years survived for an additional 3 years. However, 5-year PDAC survivors require follow-up as more than 20% do not survive for a further 5 years. Elderly patients should not be excluded from active treatment for localized or regional-stage PDAC, as the CS of elderly patients who are fit enough to undergo surgery is not inferior to that of younger patients.

Conditional Survival in Prostate Cancer in the Nordic Countries Elucidates the Timing of Improvements.

The incidence of prostate cancer (PC) increased vastly as a result of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. Survival in PC improved in the PSA-testing era, but changes in clinical presentation have hampered the interpretation of the underlying causes. We analyzed survival trends in PC using data from the NORDCAN database for Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) by analyzing 1-, 5- and 10-year relative survival and conditional relative survival over the course of 50 years (1971-2020). In the pre-PSA era, survival improved in FI and SE and improved marginally in NO but not in DK. PSA testing began toward the end of the 1980s; 5-year survival increased by approximately 30%, and 10-year survival improved even more. Conditional survival from years 6 to 10 (5 years) was better than conditional survival from years 2 to 5 (4 years), but by 2010, this difference disappeared in countries other than DK. Survival in the first year after diagnosis approached 100%; by year 5, it was 95%; and by year 10, it was 90% in the best countries, NO and SE. In spite of advances in diagnostics and treatment, further attention is required to improve PC survival.

Survival and quality-of-life outcomes in early-stage NSCLC patients: a literature review of real-world evidence.

Assess the long-term survival and quality-of-life outcomes in early-stage NSCLC (eNSCLC) patients. Review of long-term survival and quality-of-life after curative treatment in eNSCLC patients in observational studies. Disease-free proportion decreased in stage III vsstage I patients. Recurrence-free proportion decreased with age and disease stage. Advanced stage and vascular invasion increased risk of late recurrence. Conditional 5-year relative survival rates did not exceed 87%, indicating higher mortality in eNSCLC survivors. Lower conditional survival rates and relative survival rates were associated with older age and advanced disease. Survivors of eNSCLC had poorer physical quality-of-life. Despite curative-intent therapy, survivors of eNSCLC still face significant risks of recurrence, excess mortality, and diminished quality-of-life.

Conditional relative survival rate of exocrine pancreatic cancer in Korea

Conditional relative survival rate of exocrine pancreatic cancer in Korea

Fifteen-year survival and conditional survival of women with breast cancer in Osaka, Japan: A population-based study.

In recent years, the survival of patients with breast cancer has improved. However, few published studies have a longer than 10-year follow-up. Conditional relative survival (CRS), which is relative survival (RS) of patients who have survived beyond a certain period after diagnosis, is useful for assessing excess mortality among long-term survivors compared with the general population. This was a retrospective observational cohort study. Population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan were used to determine 15-year RS and 5-year CRS of women with breast cancer diagnosed between 2001 and 2002 and followed up for at least 15 years. Fifteen-year RS and age-standardized RS (ASR) were calculated by Ederer II and cohort methods. Five-year CRS according to age group and extent of disease (localized, regional, and distant) was estimated for every year from diagnosis to 10 years. In the cohort of 4006 patients, the ASR declined progressively, the 5-year ASR being 85.8%, 10-year ASR 77.3%, and 15-year ASR 71.6%. The overall 5-year CRS exceeded 90% at 5 years after diagnosis, reflecting a small excess mortality compared with the general population. The 5-year CRS of patients with regional and distant disease did not reach 90% within 10 years of follow-up (89.4% for regional and 72.9% for distant disease 10 years after diagnosis), indicating that these patients had substantial excess mortality. Long-term survival data can help cancer survivors plan their lives and receive better medical care and support.

Conditional relative survival in nonmetastatic esophagogastric cancer between 2006 and 2020: A population-based study.

Conditional relative survival (CRS) is useful for communicating prognosis to patients as it provides an estimate of the life expectancy after having survived a certain time after treatment. Our study estimates the 3-year relative survival conditional on having survived a certain period for patients with esophageal or gastric cancer. Patients with nonmetastatic esophageal or gastric cancer diagnosed between 2006 and 2020 treated with curative intent (resection with or without [neo]adjuvant therapy, or chemoradiotherapy) were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. CRS was calculated since resection or last day of chemoradiotherapy. The probability of surviving an additional 3 years (ie, 3-year CRS), if the patients survived 1, 3 and 5 years after diagnosis was 62%, 79%, 87% and 69%, 84%, 90% for esophageal and gastric cancer, respectively. The 3-year CRS after having survived 3 years for patients with esophageal cancer who underwent a resection (n=12 204) was 91%, 88%, 77% and 60% for pathological Stage 0, I, II and III, and for patients with esophageal cancer who received chemoradiotherapy (n=4158) was 51% and 66% for clinical Stage II and III, respectively. The 3-year CRS after having survived 3 years for patients with gastric cancer who underwent a resection (n=6531) was 99%, 90%, 73% and 59% for pathological Stage 0, I, II and III, respectively. Despite poor prognosis of patients with esophageal or gastric cancer, life expectancy increases substantially after patients have survived several years after treatment. Our study provides valuable information for communication of prognosis to patients during follow-up after treatment.

An Analysis of Conditional Survival Rates for Ewing Sarcoma Patients

Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program based at the National Cancer Institute in the US, conditional survival rates are reported for 1,988 Ewing Sarcoma patients diagnosed during the period 2000-2015. These patients represent the experience of 26.5% of the US population. Specifically, 5-year conditional relative survival rates are calculated for these patients for the first eight years subsequent to diagnosis of their cancer by Extent of Disease (EOD) (Localized, Regional, and Distant as coded by the SEER Program), gender, and age (<18, 18 - 34, and 35+). Findings include showing how the conditional survival rate patterns improve over time and that there are differences by gender, age, and EOD.

P-101 Conditional relative survival in non-metastatic esophagogastric cancer between 2006 and 2019: A population-based study

Overall survival estimates are informative at primary diagnosis but become less relevant over time. Conditional survival is an accurate method to estimate the life expectancy of patients after a certain number of years. The aim of our study is to assess the 3-year conditional relative survival of patients with non-metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer receiving treatment with curative intent. We selected patients with non-metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer diagnosed between 2006-2019 who received treatment with curative intent from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The relative survival was calculated using the Ederer II method. The relative 3-year survival was calculated from diagnosis and for each additional year survived, i.e. the conditional relative survival. Analyses were performed by stratification of tumor location (esophageal or gastric) and (clinical) tumor stage. Three-year relative survival conditional on having survived 1-, 3- and 5- years was 58%, 77% and 86% for patients with esophageal cancer and 66%, 81% and 90% for patients with gastric cancer, respectively. The conditional 3-year relative survival of patients with esophageal cancer who underwent a resection having survived 3 years was 90%, 87%, 75% and 58% for tumor stage 0, I, II and III. For patients with esophageal cancer who received chemoradiotherapy this was 50% and 65% for clinical tumor stage II and III, respectively. The conditional 3-year relative survival of patients with gastric cancer who underwent a resection having survived 3 years was 98%, 89%, 71% and 56% for tumor stage 0, I, II and III, respectively. Despite poor survival of patients with esophageal or gastric cancer from diagnosis, the survival of patients on having survived additional years improved with every year that passed. Our results are relevant for the clinical practice to more accurately inform patients of their life expectancy after time since diagnosis passes.

The survival gap between young and older patients after surgical resection for colorectal cancer remains largely based on early mortality: A EURECCA comparison of four European countries.

BackgroundA decade ago, it was demonstrated that the difference in survival between older patients and younger patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) was mainly due to mortality in the first postoperative year. Over the last few years, improvements - especially in perioperative care - have increased survival. The current research investigates whether a survival gap between younger and older patients with CRC still exists on a national level in four European countries. MethodsPopulation-based data from Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden were collected from patients that underwent surgical resection for primary stage I-III CRC between 2007 and 2016. Relative survival and conditional relative survival (CS), with the condition of surviving the first postoperative year, were calculated for colon and rectal cancer separately, stratified for country and age category (<65, 65–75, ≥75 years). In addition, relative excess risk of death (RER) was estimated, and one-year excess mortality was calculated. ResultsData of 206,024 patients were analyzed. In general, compared to patients <65 years, patients ≥75 years had a worse survival during the first year after surgery, which was most pronounced in Belgium (RER colon cancer 2.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3–2.8] and RER rectal cancer 2.6 [95% CI 2.3–2.9]). After surviving the first year, CS was mostly not statistically different between patients <65 years and patients ≥75 years with stage I-II, with the exception of stage II colon cancer in Belgium. However, CS remained worse in the largest part of the patients ≥75 years with stage III colon or rectal cancer (except for rectal cancer in Norway). ConclusionsAlthough differences exist between the countries, the survival gap between young and older patients is based mainly on early mortality and remains only for stage III disease after surviving the first year.

Prognostic variables for conditional survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent minimally invasive surgery

BackgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) survival is mainly reported at the time of treatment. Conditional survival is another prognostic tool to evaluate ESCC patients who has survived more than one year since treatment.MethodsWe analyzed data from 705 ESCC patients who underwent minimally invasive surgery between 2013 and 2016. Using the Kaplan–Meier method, we computed a 5-year relative conditional survival. We also investigated the prognostic factors associated with survival using Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsConditional survival improved over time for all cohorts of ESCC patients who survived a period after surgery. The greatest improve in conditional survival were observed in patients 2 years after surgery. In addition, the results of the Cox survival model from the time of surgery, T stage (p < 0.001), N stage (p < 0.001), and anastomotic leak (p = 0.022), were significantly associated with survival. However, the results of the Cox survival model from 2 years after surgery, N stage (p < 0.001), and anastomotic leak (p = 0.032) were significantly associated with survival.ConclusionFor ESCC patients who survived a period after surgery, the largest increases in conditional survival were observed in patients 2 years after surgery. We suggest that patients with anastomotic leakage and higher T and N stages should be strictly screened according to various time, and that conditional survival should be used as a powerful prognostic tool for ESCC patients.

Conditional relative survival of patients with endometrial cancer: a Korean National Cancer Registry study.

ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to estimate 5-year conditional relative survival (5Y CRS) rates of endometrial cancer (EC) in Korea accounting for time already survived. Subgroup-specific estimates stratified by various patient characteristics were also presented.MethodsUsing the data from the Korean Central Cancer Registry, 5Y CRS rates were calculated in patients who were diagnosed with EC between 1998 and 2017. The CRS rates were presented by year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, histology, cancer stage, and treatment received.ResultsThe 5-year relative survival rate at the time of diagnosis was 89.0% for all cases. The probability of surviving an additional 5 years (i.e., 5Y CRS), if the patient survived 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after diagnosis was 91.8%, 94.1%, 95.6%, 96.5%, and 97.3%, respectively. Patients with poor initial prognoses, i.e., those who were older, had non-endometrioid histology, and high stage, showed the largest improvements in 5Y CRS, reaching >90% for most subgroups, except those with serous histology (88.4%) and distant stage (77.7%). Patients aged ≥70 years had the highest probability of death in the 1st and 2nd years after diagnosis (13.8 and 11.0%), but the conditional probability of death in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th years declined rapidly to 7.3%, 4.5%, and 3.7%, respectively.ConclusionThe CRS rates for patients with EC improved with increased time elapsed from diagnosis. The greatest improvements in 5Y CRS were observed among patients who were older, those with non-endometrioid histology, and those with more advanced disease.

Conditional relative survival among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: A population-based study in the Netherlands.

Studies on conditional relative survival (CRS) in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) have hitherto been lacking in the literature. We predicted up‐to‐date estimates of 5‐year RS at diagnosis and for each additional year survived (i.e., CRS) up to 15 years post‐diagnosis among CLL patients diagnosed during 2007–2020. We showed that 5‐year CRS continues to decline gradually with each additional year survived in a contemporary era with access to novel‐based agents, irrespective of age. This finding indicates that CLL patients continue to experience substantial excess mortality compared to an age‐ and sex‐matched group from the general population.

Conditional relative survival in Waldenström's macroglobulinaemia: a population-based study in The Netherlands.

SummaryContemporary diagnosed WM patients, compared to the general population, continue to experience excess mortality regardless of having survived up to 15 years post‐diagnosis. This gradual increase in excess mortality might result from the incurable nature of this disease characterized by multiple relapses throughout the disease course with limited efficacious treatment options in the released/refractory setting.

Conditional Relative Survival of Ovarian Cancer: A Korean National Cancer Registry Study.

ObjectiveConditional relative survival (CRS) rates, which take into account changes in prognosis over time, are useful estimates for survivors and their clinicians as they make medical and personal decisions. We aimed to present the 5-year relative conditional survival probabilities of patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer from 1997–2016.MethodsThis nationwide retrospective cohort study used data from the Korean Central Cancer Registry. Patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer between 1997 and 2016 were included. CRS rates were calculated stratified by age at diagnosis, cancer stage, histology, treatment received, year of diagnosis, and social deprivation index.ResultsThe 5-year relative survival rate at the time of diagnosis was 61.1% for all cases. The probability of surviving an additional 5 years, conditioned on having already survived 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after diagnosis was 65.0, 69.5, 74.6, 79.3, and 83.9%, respectively. Patients with poorer initial survival estimates (older, distant stage, serous histology) generally showed the largest increases in CRS over time. The probability of death was highest in the first year after diagnosis (11.8%), and the conditional probability of death in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th years declined to 9.4%, 7.9%, 6.1%, and 5.2%, respectively.ConclusionCRS rates for patients with ovarian cancer increased with each year they survived, but this did not reach the level of ‘no excess mortality’ even 5 years after diagnosis. The largest improvements in CRS were observed in patients with poorer initial prognoses. Our findings provide updated prognosis to ovarian cancer survivors and clinicians.

Conditional survival for high-risk early-stage cervical cancer patients with lymph node metastasis after hysterectomy

Background: To estimate conditional survival (CS) for high-risk early-stage cervical cancer patients with lymph node metastasis after hysterectomy. Methods: 1964 T1-2N1M0 cervical cancer patients who underwent primary hysterectomy from 2004 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) Program. Univariate and multivariate cox regression analysis were used to identify independent risk factors. 5-year conditional disease-specific survival (CDS5) and 5-year conditional relative survival (CRS5) were estimated. CDS5 and CRS5 stratified by risk factors were further calculated. Results: CDS5 and CRS5 increased from 71.0% and 73.7% at 0-year to 89.2% and 91.7% at 5-year, respectively. Inversely, the actuarial disease-specific survival and RS dropped from 71.0% and 73.7% at 5-year to 63.3% and 67.6% at 10-year, respectively. Patients with unfavorable factors had a bigger gap between actuarial survival and CS. Both CDS5 and CRS5 curves across stratas of each prognostic factor had a tendency to level off with time elapsing. Notably, CRS5 couldn't exceed 95% even after 5-year follow-up except for patients with grade I disease (CRS5 at 5-year: 100%) or tumor size less than 2 cm (CRS5 at 5-year: 96%). Conclusion: CS increased over time while actuarial survival decreased as time passed. Patients with unfavorable factors had bigger improvement in CS than those with favorable factors. Excess mortality still existed in these patients after 5-year follow-up compared to the general population except for patients with grade I disease or tumor size <2 cm, who might gradually decrease follow-up times after 5-year.

Long-term Patterns of Excess Mortality among Endometrial Cancer Survivors

Abstract Purpose of the study: Examining long-term patterns of mortality among cancer survivors compared to the general population may inform planning for surveillance and follow-up care. We investigated excess mortality after endometrial cancer using conditional relative survival estimates and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Methods: Women diagnosed with endometrial cancer during 2000–2017 (N = 183,153) were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. SMRs were calculated as observed deaths among endometrial cancer survivors over expected deaths among demographically similar women in the general U.S. population. Five-year relative survival was estimated at diagnosis and each additional year survived up to 12 years post-diagnosis, conditional on survival up to that year. Results: For the full cohort, 5-year relative survival was 87.7%, 96.2%, and 97.1% at 1, 5, and 10 years post- diagnosis. respectively. Conditional 5-year relative survival first exceeded 95%, reflecting minimal excess mortality compared to the general population, at 4 years post-diagnosis overall, but occurred later for Black women (8 years) compared to White (4 years), and also later for women with regional/distant stage, grade 3 disease, or non- endometrioid histology. The overall SMR for all-cause mortality decreased from 5.90 (95% CI: 5.81–5.99) in the first year after diagnosis to 1.16 (95% CI: 1.13–1.19) at 10+ years; SMRs were consistently higher for non-White women and those with higher stage or grade disease. Conclusions: Overall, endometrial cancer survivors had only a small survival deficit beyond 4 years post- diagnosis. However, excess mortality was greater in magnitude and persisted longer into survivorship for Black women and those with more advanced disease.

Long-term Patterns of Excess Mortality among Endometrial Cancer Survivors

Abstract Background: We investigated excess mortality after endometrial cancer using conditional relative survival estimates and standardized mortality ratios (SMR). Methods: Women diagnosed with endometrial cancer during 2000–2017 (N = 183,153) were identified in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. SMRs were calculated as observed deaths among endometrial cancer survivors over expected deaths among demographically similar women in the general U.S. population. Five-year relative survival was estimated at diagnosis and each additional year survived up to 12 years post-diagnosis, conditional on survival up to that year. Results: For the full cohort, 5-year relative survival was 87.7%, 96.2%, and 97.1% at 1, 5, and 10 years post-diagnosis, respectively. Conditional 5-year relative survival first exceeded 95%, reflecting minimal excess mortality compared with the general population, at 4 years post-diagnosis overall. However, in subgroup analyses, conditional relative survival remained lower for Black women (vs. White) and for those with regional/distant stage disease (vs. localized) throughout the study period. The overall SMR for all-cause mortality decreased from 5.90 [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.81–5.99] in the first year after diagnosis to 1.16 (95% CI, 1.13–1.19) at 10+ years; SMRs were consistently higher for non-White women and for those with higher stage or grade disease. Conclusions: Overall, endometrial cancer survivors had only a small survival deficit beyond 4 years post-diagnosis. However, excess mortality was greater in magnitude and persisted longer into survivorship for Black women and for those with more advanced disease. Impact: Strategies to mitigate disparities in mortality after endometrial cancer will be needed as the number of survivors continues to increase.

Conditional Survival of Surgically Treated Patients with Lung Cancer: A Comprehensive Analyses of Overall, Recurrence-free, and Relative Survival.

PurposeSurvival probability changes over time in cancer survivors. This study examined conditional survival in patients undergoing curative resection for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).Materials and MethodsFive-year conditional recurrence-free survival (CRFS), conditional overall survival (COS), and conditional relative survival (CRS) up to 10 years after surgery were calculated in patients who underwent NSCLC resection from 1994 to 2016. These rates were stratified according to age, sex, year of diagnosis, pathological stage, tumor histology, smoking status, comorbidity, and lung function.ResultsFive-year CRFS increased from 65.6% at baseline to 90.9% at 10 years after surgery. Early differences in 5-year CRFS according to stratified patient characteristics disappeared, except for age: older patients exhibited persistently lower 5-year CRFS. Five-year COS increased from 72.7% to 78.3% at 8 years and then decreased to 75.4% at 10 years. Five-year CRS increased from 79.0% at baseline to 86.8% at 10 years. Older age and higher pathologic stage were associated with lower 5-year COS and CRS up to 10 years after surgery. Female patients, those with adenocarcinoma histology, non-smokers, patient without comorbidities and had good lung function showed higher COS and CRS.ConclusionCRFS improved over time, but significant risk remained after 5 years. CRS slightly improved over time but did not reach 90%, suggesting significant excess mortality compared to the general population. Age and stage remained significant predictors of conditional survival several years after surgery. Our conditional survival estimates should help clinicians and patients make informed treatment and personal life decisions based on survivorship status.