Conditional Cancer-specific Survival Research Articles

Conditional survival analysis and real-time prognosis prediction in stage III T3–T4 colon cancer patients after surgical resection: a SEER database analysis

BackgroundConditional survival (CS) takes into consideration the duration of survival post-surgery and can provide valuable additional insights. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors associated with reduced one-year postoperative conditional survival in patients diagnosed with stage III T3–T4 colon cancer and real-time prognosis prediction. Furthermore, we aim to develop pertinent nomograms and predictive models.MethodsClinical data and survival outcomes of patients diagnosed with stage III T3–T4 colon cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, covering the period from 2010 to 2019. Patients were divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The training set consisted of a total of 11,386 patients for conditional overall survival (cOS) and 11,800 patients for conditional cancer-specific survival (cCSS), while the validation set comprised 4876 patients for cOS and 5055 patients for cCSS. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to identify independent risk factors influencing one-year postoperative cOS and cCSS. Subsequently, predictive nomograms for cOS and cCSS at 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, and 5-year intervals were constructed based on the identified prognostic factors. The performance of these nomograms was rigorously assessed through metrics including the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and the area under curve (AUC) derived from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Clinical utility was further evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsA total of 18,190 patients diagnosed with stage III T3–T4 colon cancer were included in this study. Independent risk factors for one-year postoperative cOS and cCSS included age, pT stage, pN stage, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, receipt of chemotherapy, perineural invasion (PNI), presence of tumor deposits, the number of harvested lymph nodes, and marital status. Sex and tumor site were significantly associated with one-year postoperative cOS, while radiation therapy was notably associated with one-year postoperative cCSS. In the training cohort, the developed nomogram demonstrated a C-index of 0.701 (95% CI, 0.711–0.691) for predicting one-year postoperative cOS and 0.701 (95% CI, 0.713–0.689) for one-year postoperative cCSS. Following validation, the C-index remained robust at 0.707 (95% CI, 0.721–0.693) for one-year postoperative cOS and 0.700 (95% CI, 0.716–0.684) for one-year postoperative cCSS. ROC and calibration curves provided evidence of the model's stability and reliability. Furthermore, DCA underscored the nomogram’s superior clinical utility.ConclusionsOur study developed nomograms and predictive models for postoperative stage III survival in T3–T4 colon cancer with the aim of accurately estimating conditional survival. Survival bias in our analyses may lead to overestimation of survival outcomes, which may limit the applicability of our findings.

Contemporary conditional cancer-specific survival rates in surgically treated nonmetastatic primary urethral carcinoma.

We examined the effect of disease-free interval (DFI) duration on cancer-specific mortality (CSM)-free survival, otherwise known as the effect of conditional survival, in radical urethrectomy nonmetastatic primary urethral carcinoma (PUC) patients. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database 2000-2020, patient (age, sex, race/ethnicity, and marital status) and tumor (stage and histology) characteristics, as well as systemic therapy exposure status of nonmetastatic PUC patients were tabulated. Conditional survival estimates at 5-year were assessed based on DFI duration and according to stage at presentation (T1 -2N0 vs. T3-4N0-2). Of all 512 radical urethrectomy PUC patients, 278 (54%) harbored T1-2N0 stage versus 234 (46%) harbored T3-4N0-2 stage. In 512 PUC patients, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis was 61.8%. Provided a DFI duration of 36 months, 5-year CSM-free survival was 85.6%. In 278 T1-2N0 PUC patients, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis was 68.4%. Provided a DFI duration of 36 months, 5-year CSM-free survival was 86.9%. In 234 T3-4N0-2 PUC patients, 5-year CSM-free survival at initial diagnosis was 53.8%. Provided a DFI duration of 36 months, 5-year CSM-free survival was 83.6%. Although intuitively, clinicians and patients are well aware of the concept that increasing DFI duration improves survival probability, only a few clinicians can accurately estimate the magnitude of survival improvement, as was done within the current study. Such information is crucial to survivors, especially in those diagnosed with rare malignancies, where the survival estimation according to DFI duration is even more challenging.

Racial disparities in conditional survival of patients with bladder cancer: a population-based study

BackgroundTraditional estimates can only provide static predictions of cancer outcomes and cannot assess the evolving effect of race on patient survival. This study aims to reveal the dynamic survival of patients with bladder cancer and to explore the evolving effect of race on patient prognosis.MethodsUsing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry, 99,590 white, 6,036 African American, and 4,685 Asian/Pacific Islander (API) patients with bladder cancer were identified. Conditional cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates, which could reflect the dynamic survival prediction of cancer patients, represented the primary outcomes, and were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier algorithm. The evolving effect of race on patient survival was evaluated by multivariable Cox regression in combination with conditional survival (CS) estimates.ResultsThe 5-year CSS for African American patients who had survived 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 years after definitive therapy improved from the baseline calculation by + 5.8 (84.4%), + 9.5 (87.4%), + 12.8 (90.0%), + 14.4 (91.3%), and + 14.7% (91.5%), respectively. The increasing trend also held for overall white and API patients, and for all patient subsets when CS was calculated according to different levels of sex, age, and disease stage. African Americans, despite having the worst survival at baseline, could have CSS comparable to their white and API counterparts after 4 years of survivorship. In addition, the risk of death for African Americans tended to decrease with increasing survival, and the risk was no longer significantly different from that of whites after 4 years of survival.ConclusionsWhile having the worst initial predicted outcomes, African Americans may eventually achieve comparable survival to white and API patients given several years of survivorship. As patient survival increases, African American race may lose its role as an indicator of poorer prognosis.

Conditional Cancer-Specific Survival for Inflammatory Breast Cancer: Analysis of SEER, 2010 to 2016

BackgroundConditional survival takes into account the time that has elapsed since diagnosis and may have additional informative value. Compared with the static traditional survival evaluation method, conditional survival predictions can be adapted to incorporate the dynamic changes during the disease and provide a more suitable way of identifying time-evolved prognoses. MethodsOf 3333 patients diagnosed with inflammatory breast cancer between 2010 and 2016 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The trend of the hazard rate over time was represented by the kernel density smoothing curve. The traditional cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Conditional CSS assessment was defined as the probability that a patient will survive y years given the x years who already survived after diagnosis, and the formula is as follows: CS(y)=CSS(x + y)/CSS(x). 3-year cancer-specific survival (CSS3) and 3-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CS3) were estimated. The Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazard model was constructed to screen for time-dependent risk factors associated with cancer-specific death. Subsequently, a nomogram was applied to predict a 5-year survival rate based on the number of years already survived. ResultsOf 3333 patients, the cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate decreased from 57% in the 4th year to 49% in the 6th year, while the comparable 3-year CS (CS3) rate improved from 65% in the first year to 76% in the third year. Overall, the CS3 rate was superior to actuarial cancer-specific survival, which was also found in subgroup analysis, especially in patients with high-risk characteristics. The Fine-Gray's model indicated that remote organ metastasis (M stage), lymph node metastasis (N stage), and surgery all significantly impacted the prognosis for cancer-specific survival. The Fine-Gray's model-based nomogram was constructed to predict 5-year cancer-specific survival immediately after diagnosis and given survival for 1, 2, 3, and 4 years after diagnosis. ConclusionHigh-risk patients had a significantly improved cancer-specific survival prognosis after surviving for 1 or more years after diagnosis with inflammatory breast cancer. The probability of reaching 5-year cancer-specific survival following diagnosis improves with each additional year survived. More effective follow-up is required for patients diagnosed at an advanced N stage, remote organ metastasis, or not received surgery. Additionally, a nomogram and web-based calculator may be helpful for patients with inflammatory breast cancer during follow-up counseling (https://ibccondsurv.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/).

Contemporary conditional cancer-specific survival rates in stage III non-seminoma testis cancer patients: A population-based analysis

Contemporary conditional cancer-specific survival rates in stage III non-seminoma testis cancer patients: A population-based analysis

Conditional survival analysis and real-time prognosis prediction for cervical cancer patients below the age of 65 years.

Survival prediction for cervical cancer is usually based on its stage at diagnosis or a multivariate nomogram. However, few studies cared whether long-term survival improved after they survived for several years. Meanwhile, traditional survival analysis could not calculate this dynamic outcome. We aimed to assess the improvement of survival over time using conditional survival (CS) analysis and developed a novel conditional survival nomogram (CS-nomogram) to provide individualized and real-time prognostic information. Cervical cancer patients were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier method estimated cancer-specific survival (CSS) and calculated the conditional CSS (C-CSS) at year y+x after giving x years of survival based on the formula C-CSS(y|x) =CSS(y+x)/CSS(x). y indicated the number of years of further survival under the condition that the patient was determined to have survived for x years. The study identified predictors by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and used multivariate Cox regression to demonstrate these predictors' effect on CSS and to develop a nomogram. Finally, the CSS possibilities predicted by the nomogram were brought into the C-CSS formula to create the CS-nomogram. A total of 18,511 patients aged <65 years with cervical cancer from 2004 to 2019 were included in this study. CS analysis revealed that the 15-year CSS increased year by year from the initial 72.6% to 77.8%, 84.5%, 88.8%, 91.5%, 93.5%, 94.8%, 95.7%, 96.4%, 97.3%, 98.0%, 98.5%, 99.1%, and 99.4% (after surviving for 1-13 years, respectively), and found that when survival exceeded 5-6 years, the risk of death from cervical cancer would be less than 5% in 10-15 years. The CS-nomogram constructed using tumor size, lymph node status, distant metastasis status, and histological grade showed strong predictive performance with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.805 and a stable area under the curve (AUC) between 0.795 and 0.816 over 15 years. CS analysis in this study revealed the gradual improvement of CSS over time in long-term survived cervical cancer patients. We applied CS to the nomogram and developed a CS-nomogram successfully predicting individualized and real-time prognosis.

Conditional cancer-specific survival after radical hepatectomy in patients with nonmetastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

Objectives To examine conditional survival (CS) in patients with non‐metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (nmICC) after surgical treatment according to pT and pN stages. Methods A total of 608 patients were included. Conditional three-year cancer-specific mortality estimates were obtained according to pT and pN stages. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was applied to predict factors affecting cancer-specific mortality (CSM). Results According to substages based on pT and pN status, 109 patients (17.9%) with pT1aN0, 96 (15.8%) with pT1bN0, 205 (33.7%) with pT2N0, 82(13.5%) with pT3-5N0, and 116 (19.1%) with pTanyN1 were identified. Conditional CSM-free estimates increased from 75% to 87%, 66% to 70%, 53% to 86%, and 36 to 54% after three years of event-free follow-up in pT1b, pT2, pT3-4N0, and pTanyN1 patients, respectively, whereas it decreased from 87% to 79% in pT1aN0 patients. Based on multivariable analysis, patients with pT2N0 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.0 p < .01), pT3-4N0 (HR 2,7 p < .01), and pTanyN1-3 (HR 4.8 p < .01) had higher CSM than patients with pT1aN0 at baseline. Conclusions CS varied across stage categories in nmICC patients after surgery, and it was important in individualized clinical counseling and decision‐making for nmICC.

Conditional survival of metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma: How prognosis evolves after cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor.

IntroductionCytoreductive surgery is one of the recommended treatments for metastatic renal cell carcinoma, while the prognostic information of these patients treated with cytoreductive surgery is limited. In this study, we aimed to investigate the survival profiles based on conditional survival (CS) estimates in metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (mccRCC) patients treated with cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor.Methods and materialsWe identified and extracted mccRCC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. We used Kaplan–Meier method to perform CS analyses. A multivariate Cox regression model was applied to explore the changes of well‐known prognostic factors.ResultsConditional overall survival (COS) and conditional cancer‐specific survival (CCSS) improved increasingly at all periods of survivorships compared to survival estimates at baseline in overall population of mccRCC. The 36‐month COS improved by 3.3%–6.4% given per 12 additional months of survivorships and the CCSS improved significantly from 45.1% (95% CI 42.8–47.3) at 12 months to 67.1% (95% CI 62.0–71.7) at 60 months. Much more survival gain was observed in patients with advanced disease. Furthermore, the prognostic significance of age and pathological factors diminished and even disappeared in a long‐term survivorship.ConclusionsConditional overall survival and CCSS improved with time dynamically in mccRCC patients treated with cytoreductive surgery of primary tumor. Patients with advanced disease achieved significant survival gain and even could harvest a better prognosis given that the time of survivorship exceeds a certain period. Our findings could provide valuable and practical data for patient counseling and surveillance strategy making.

Long-term survival trend after primary total laryngectomy for patients with locally advanced laryngeal carcinoma.

Purpose: To evaluate long-term survival trends after primary total laryngectomy (TL) for locally advanced laryngeal carcinoma (LC).Methods: A total of 2094 patients diagnosed with locally advanced LC and underwent primary TL (1992-2011, at least 5-year follow-up) in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in this study. Besides the traditional overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) by using Kaplan-Meier curves, the 3-year conditional survival analysis was also performed to describe the long-term trends in these patients. Time-dependent multivariate competing-risk models were constructed to assess the persistent sub-distribution hazard of prognostic factors. Finally, a nomogram was developed to predict conditional cancer-specific survival.Results: The curves of overall hazard and cancer-specific hazard both quickly reached the apex within the first year since TL, then decreased thereafter. In general, the CS3 steadily increased from within 5 years after TL. In the stratified CS3 analysis, the increments in patients with adverse characteristics were more pronounced. 4 years after TL, the probability of surviving the next year exceeded 90%. The time-dependent multivariate competing-risk models indicated that age and lymph node ratio (LNR) persistently contributed to the cancer-specific outcome. The nomogram based on the competing-risk model was constructed to estimate CSS probability conditional upon 3 years for advanced LC patients having survived 1, 2, and 3 years.Conclusion: Most patients achieved a substantially improved survival rate after surviving a long period after primary TL. Patients diagnosed at older age and with higher LNR should receive more effective follow-up. The predictive nomogram can provide significant evidence for clinical research and practice.

Conditional survival analysis of four treatment strategies for patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer.

Conditional survival (CS) is used to describe dynamic survival possibility, taking account of the change in the survival risk that occurs with longevity. The present study aimed to explore the CS of four treatment strategies for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), staged according to the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control NSCLC staging system. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program cohort obtained between 2004–2014, the current study first extracted data for 27,116 patients with stage I NSCLC. The actuarial cancer-specific survival rates (ACSs) and conditional cancer-specific survival rates of four treatment strategies were then compared. ACS was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and a log-rank test. The 3-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CCS3) of patients who had already survived for n years was calculated as CCS3=ACS(n+3)/ACS(n). Cox regression and propensity-score matching (PSM) was applied to adjust confounding factors. The 5-year ACS of patients who underwent lobectomy, sublobar resection, radiation and observation was 80.3, 72.0, 40.8 and 19.6%, respectively. The 5-year CCS3 of patients who underwent lobectomy, sublobar resection, radiation and observation was 91.7, 86.4, 77.0 and 58.2%, respectively. CCS3 increased with an increase in survival time and patients who underwent lobectomy had the highest CCS3 estimates and flattest growth, with the smallest survival gap between CCS3 and ACS. The results were similar in the PSM analysis. In conclusion, CS estimates may provide a more accurate survival prediction for patients with stage I NSCLC, and may assist with treatment decisions and surveillance strategies. In addition, the current study provided evidence that suggests lobectomy may be the optimal treatment strategy for stage I NSCLC compared with sublobar resection.

Incidence trend and conditional survival estimates of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: A large population-based study.

Given the rarity and indolent clinical course of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP‐NETs), conditional survival might be the most suitable parameter for cancer survivors who wish to receive accurate prognostic information during follow‐up. We have explored the updated incidence trend and the conditional survival of patients with GEP‐NETs. Incidence trends from 2000 to 2014 were determined through an assessment of patients in the SEER cancer registry. Patients diagnosed between 1988 and 2011 were included in the conditional survival analysis, and the 3‐year conditional cancer‐specific survival (CCS3) was computed. The incidence of GEP‐NETs, which is far higher than the incidence of many malignant tumors, is still increasing steadily (annual percentage change = 4.4). The risk of death from NETs is dynamic over time, and most deaths occur in the first 3 years after diagnosis. Patients with gastric, rectal, or appendiceal NETs hardly exhibit any excess mortality (CCS3 > 95%) given that they have already survived until a defined time‐point within 10 years. The initial difference between each age group basically disappeared with an extension of the survival time since the initial diagnosis of gastric, appendiceal, or rectal NETs, but the difference persisted for tumors at other sites. Although patients with advanced‐stage or higher‐grade tumors have a worse survival at diagnosis than patients with early‐stage or lower‐grade tumors, the difference diminishes and might even disappear over time. For GEP‐NETs that are rare but exhibit slow growth, clinically relevant variations in conditional survival were observed based on the time since diagnosis. Therefore, conditional survival can serve as a guideline that can be used by cancer survivors to plan their future and doctors to plan surveillance schedules.

Changeable prognosis and associated prognostic factors for conditional survival estimates in metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients receiving the first-line targeted therapy.

587 Background: Conditional survival (CS) indicates the probability that patient would survive additional periods, given that the patients has previous survivorship after diagnosis or initial treatment. Here, we aim to evaluate the CS probabilities in mRCC patients who underwent targeted therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) and to identify the significant prognostic factors of the CS over time. Methods: A total of 1,498 mRCC patients receiving 1st line TKI was finally analyzed from Korean multicenter database of mRCC. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates was used to calculate overall and cancer-specific CS rates by using following formula: CS(α│β) = S(α+β)/S(β), where CS(α│β) indicates the likelihood of additional α years survivorship in the person who has already survived for β years after initial diagnosis or treatment, and S(χ) is the actual survival rate. The Cox regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of CS depended on clinicopathological features. Results: We observed that 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year conditional cancer-specific survival (CSS) gradually increased as patients who have all additional survivorships after initial treatment, compared to those with baseline survival estimation. Also, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year conditional OS rates also increased after additional 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 year survivorships following first-line TKI treatment. Furthermore, we found that key predictive factors of OS and CSS were changed over time in multivariate analysis. While several variables, such as BMI, histologic subtypes, pT stage, were identified as prognosticators of CSS at baseline, they were not remained as independent predictors after 1 yr survivorship. Conversely, only previous metastatectomy was determined as a key prognostic factor for conditional OS over time until 4 yr survivorship after initial TKI treatment. Conclusions: Our study offers valuable information for practical survival estimation and relevant predictive factors for patients with mRCC receiving targeted therapy.

The Conditional Survival with Time of Intravesical Recurrence of Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma.

Since conditional survival analysis provides better estimates of survival time at each followup, we assessed changes in conditional intravesical recurrence-free survival rates after radical nephroureterectomy. We also sought to determine how the impact of well-known risk factors evolves with time, particularly in patients with localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma. We identified 364 patients with Ta-3N0M0 localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma who underwent open or laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy at 1 of our 3 institutions. Conditional intravesical recurrence-free and cancer specific survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The changing impact of parameters on intravesical recurrence with time was assessed by multivariate Cox regression analysis. Intravesical recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy was detected in 176 patients (48.4%) and 93 (25.5%) died of localized upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Five-year intravesical recurrence-free and cancer specific survival rates after surgery were 41.5% and 72.9%, respectively. Based on 1, 2, 3 and 4-year survivorship the 5-year conditional intravesical recurrence-free survival rate increased from 41.5% to 60.5%, 73.4%, 79.5% and 96.7%, respectively. The 5-year conditional cancer specific survival rate also improved from 72.9% to 78.4%, 85.4%, 90.9% and 95.5% at 1, 2, 3 and 4 years, respectively. The effects of well-known predictive factors on estimated conditional survival decreased with time for intravesical recurrence. In contrast, the impact of T2 or lower pathological stage and laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy sustained statistical power with time. Conditional survival analysis revealed that the probability of intravesical recurrence-free survival increased with time in patients with localized Ta-3N0M0 upper tract urothelial carcinoma after radical nephroureterectomy. Patients with T2 or lower T stage who undergo laparoscopic radical nephroureterectomy may be recommended for longer followup to detect subsequent intravesical recurrence.

Can the Preoperative Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Significantly Predict the Conditional Survival Probability in Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer Patients Undergoing Radical Cystectomy?

The present study investigated the prognostic value of the preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in bladder cancer patients undergoing radical cystectomy (RC), with a focus on the conditional survival (CS) estimates over time after surgery. We analyzed 385 bladder cancer patients who underwent RC from 1999 to 2012. The patients were classified into 2 groups according to the preoperative NLR (< 2.5 vs.≥ 2.5). The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to calculate the conditional probabilities of cancer-specific survival and overall survival after surgery. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify the predictors of 5-year conditional cancer-specific survival and overall survival. Patients with an elevated preoperative NLR (≥2.5) had a greater proportion of advanced-stage tumors (≥ pT3), high-grade tumors, and lymphovascular invasion. Patients with an elevated preoperative NLR (≥ 2.5) had poor CS estimates compared with those with a lower NLR (<2.5) at baseline and 1 year after RC. However, no significant differences in CS probabilities were observed from 2 years after RC onward. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, the preoperative NLR was identified as a significant predictive factor for 5-year CS at baseline and postoperative 1-year estimation; however, its significance was lost after 2 years postoperatively. Our study results suggest that the dynamic aspect of the NLR should be considered when assessing the prognosis of bladder cancer patients treated with RC over time after the initial estimates, in particular, in patients who have already survived for additional years after surgery.

Conditional Survival After Surgical Intervention in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Conditional survival (CS) is defined as living some additional time predicated on living to a certain time point. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of CS analyses for postoperative follow-up of surgically treated patients with lung cancer. We retrospectively analyzed survival and clinicopathologic data from 859 patients with non-small cell lung cancer who underwent complete resection. CS is the probability of surviving additional time (y), after an individual has already survived for some time (x), and can be calculated from the following formula: CS(y|x)= S(x+ y)/S(x), where S is the overall survival at a specific time. The 5-year cumulative overall survival rate was 75%. The additional 5-year survival rates at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years after operation (5Y-CS) were 75%, 77%, 77%, and 81%, respectively. The likelihood of surviving for a total of 5 years, 3 years after surgery was 89%. Age less than or equal to 70 years, female sex, no or light smoking, adenocarcinoma histologic type, pathologic stage I, and normal serum carcinoembryonic antigen levels were the clinicopathologic features associated with a high cancer-specific CS. For patients with favorable factors, the 2Y recurrence-free CS(3)reached 100%, whereas 5Y-CS did not change. Estimates of CS probabilities may provide more meaningful information than traditional cumulative survival. Even in patients with favorable factors, a postoperative follow-up visit after 3 postsurgical years may be required.

Prognostic value of interleukin-6 and interleukin-6 receptor in organ-confined clear-cell renal cell carcinoma: a 5-year conditional cancer-specific survival analysis.

Background:Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is the major cytokine that induces transcriptional acute and chronic inflammation responses, and was recently incorporated as a recurrence prognostication signature for localised clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). As the prognostic efficacy of initial risk factors may ebb during long-term practice, we aim to report conditional cancer-specific survival (CCSS) of RCC patients and evaluate the impact of IL-6 as well as its receptor (IL-6R) to offer more relevant prognostic information accounting for elapsing time.Methods:We enrolled 180 histologically proven localised ccRCC patients who underwent nephrectomy between 2001 and 2004 with available pathologic information. Five-year CCSS was determined and stratified by future prognostic factors. Constant Cox regression analysis and Harrell's concordance index were used to indicate the predictive accuracy of established models.Results:The 5-year CCSS of organ-confined ccRCC patients with both IL-6- and IL-6R-positive expression was 52% at year 2 after surgery, which was close to locally advanced patients (48%, P=0.564) and was significantly poorer than organ-confined patients with IL-6- or IL-6R-negative expression (89%, P<0.001). Multivariate analyses proved IL-6 and IL-6R as independent predictors after adjusting for demographic factors. Concordance index of pT-IL-6-IL-6R risk stratification was markedly higher compared with the stage, size, grade and necrosis prognostic model (0.724 vs 0.669, P=0.002) or UCLA Integrated Staging System (0.724 vs 0.642, P=0.007) in organ-confined ccRCC population during the first 5 years.Conclusions:Combined IL-6 and IL-6R coexpression emerges as an independent early-stage immunologic prognostic factor for organ-confined ccRCC patients.

Conditional Cancer-Specific Survival in Prostate Cancer Patients With Very-High-Risk Features: Implications for Long-Term Prognosis

Conditional Cancer-Specific Survival in Prostate Cancer Patients With Very-High-Risk Features: Implications for Long-Term Prognosis

Conditional Survival and Associated Prognostic Factors in Patients with Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma after Radical Nephroureterectomy: A Retrospective Study at a Single Institution.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to evaluate the changes of conditional survival (CS) probabilities and to identify the prognostic parameters that significantly affect CS over time post-surgery in upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) patients.Materials and MethodsA total of 330 patients were examined in the final analysis. Primary end point was conditional cancer-specific survival (CSS), overall survival (OS), and intravesical recurrence-free survival (IVRFS) after surgery. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for calculation of CS. Cox regression hazard ratio model was used to determine the predictors of CS.ResultsUTUC patients who had already survived 5 years after radical nephroureterectomy had a more favorable CS probability in all given survivorships compared to those with shorter survival times. Patients with unfavorable pathologic features showed a higher increment of 5-year conditional CSS and OS compared to their counterparts. For 5-year conditional CSS, several factors, including high-grade tumor, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor location showed significant association with risk elevation over time. Only age remained as a predictor of 5-year conditional OS with increased risk in all given survivorships. For 5-year IVRFS, no variables remained as significant predictive factors over time after surgery.ConclusionOur study provides valuable information for practical survival estimation and relevant prognostic factors for patients with UTUC after surgery.

Conditional survival estimates for lung cancer histologic subtypes in the U.S. (2004-2008).

7550 Background: Conditional survival (CS) is a more accurate measure of survival probability among cancers associated with a poor prognosis. We calculated lung cancer-specific CS estimates to help clinicians and patients with informed decision making. Methods: Lung cancer patients with at least 3 years of follow-up were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry (2004-2008). American Joint Commission on Cancer, sixth edition was used for staging non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Stages 1 to 3 SCLC were classified as limited stage (LS), and stage 4 was classified was extensive stage (ES). Multivariate Cox regression models were built separately by stage to calculate the adjusted 1-6 year cancer-specific survival and overall survival. The multiplicative law of probability was then used to compute the X-year conditional survival where the (x+y) year survival is divided by y years of patients who have survived. The following were adjusted: age, sex, ethnicity, marital status, SE...

Clinical Calculator of Conditional Survival Estimates for Resected and Unresected Survivors of Pancreatic Cancer

To calculate conditional survival estimates for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. We constructed separate multivariate survival models adjusted for 7 clinicopathologic factors for patients who did and did not undergo radical surgical resection. Patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma diagnosed between 1988 and 2005 included in the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results cancer registry. Internet browser-based calculator to compute personalized survival estimates. Conditional survival probabilities increased over time for all patients with pancreatic cancer regardless of patient characteristics, disease stage, or treatment. For patients with resected stage I, II, or III disease, 3-year conditional cancer-specific survival increased from 38% to 70%, 19% to 54%, and 8% to 39%, respectively, over the 3 years following diagnosis. The relative improvement in survival over time was larger for patients with advanced disease. A customizable, Internet browser-based clinical calculator was implemented that may be used to compute in real time personalized conditional survival estimates based on an individual's unique clinicopathologic profile. Conditional survival estimates provide a more accurate--and typically more optimistic--assessment of prognosis for patients with pancreatic cancer than traditional survival estimates that apply only at the initial diagnosis.