Policy Conclusions Research Articles

Comparative Analysis of Domestic Production and Import of Hard Coal in Poland: Conclusions for Energy Policy and Competitiveness

In many energy policies, including Poland’s, environmental priorities clash with the issue of energy security. With these contradictions in mind, the main objective of the article is a comparative analysis of domestic production and imports of hard coal in Poland and the formulation of conclusions for energy policy and competitiveness. The analysis covers the years 2018–2023 and concerns three issues: the volume and directions of coal imports to Poland, the qualitative and price competitiveness of coal, and the possibility of substituting imported coal with domestic coal. The research used statistical analysis. Indicators of structure and dynamics as well as comparative analysis were also used. The analysis shows that the structure of coal importers to Poland is quite diverse and includes many geographic directions. However, until 2021, it was dominated by Russia, followed by Colombia, indicating a fairly homogeneous supply market and a continuing tendency to depend on a single importer. Analysis of qualitative competitiveness confirms the existence of balance and industrial resources whose quality parameters (sulfur content, ash content, and calorific value) are comparable to and better than those of imported coal. Polish hard coal can also compete with imported coal in terms of price. From 2021 to 2023, it was clearly cheaper than foreign coal. In the above circumstances, it is quite difficult to unequivocally assess the reasons for importing coal to Poland and to justify dependence on external suppliers. This is especially relevant since domestic mining in 2020–2023 remains stable (periodically even increasing), which does not indicate a decisive shift away from coal as an energy resource.

Fixed Automated stations location and UAVs routing problems in urban road Networks: A tailored Branch-&-price algorithm

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) serve as vital tools for collecting real-time traffic data, enabling rapid responses to events, and optimizing traffic management based on their cost-effectiveness, high flexibility, and wide coverage range advantages. The urban UAV cruising problem primarily focuses on selecting the locations of fixed automated station (FAS) and optimizing UAVs’ cruising routes. This paper introduces a strategy where UAVs can take off and land on different FASs to enhance urban UAVs’ cruising efficiency. Firstly, the problem is formulated as an integrated linear integer model (FU-ILP) which simultaneously determines the locations of FASs and the routes of UAVs. The objective is to minimize redundant cruising distance and cruising cycle time. The FU-ILP model takes into account UAV‘s flight capabilities, FAS’s signal coverage range, power requirements, and battery charging. Moreover, we design a tailored branch-and-price (TB&P) algorithm to decompose the FU-ILP model, which can reduce the variable scale for solving larger-scale cases. Finally, we test the model and the algorithm on the Sioux Falls Test Network. The TB&P algorithm improves computational efficiency by nearly 80%. Moreover, our strategy yields superior results compared to the strategy where UAVs must return to their take-off FASs for recharging. We also demonstrate that increasing the number of UAVs does not reduce redundant cruising distance in the whole network, but it can shorten the cruising cycle. These policy conclusions also apply to the case of Xiongan. This provides a basis for managers to calculate the minimum UAV’s configuration based on the cities’ actual cruising frequency requirements.

Theoretical Premises of Support of and Opposition to NATO Enlargement

This article analyses the theoretical premises behind policy conclusion on NATO’s enlargement. The analysis proceeds through three phases: 1. Machine-generated elaboration of premises that could predict prescriptions on NATO enlargement. 2. Qualitative investigation to reveal the plausible logics from these premises to geopolitical prescriptions on NATO expansion. 3. Correlation tests to assess how systematically these premises lead to their expected prescriptions. The three differences that best predict whether an argument ends up supporting or opposing NATO enlargement are as follows: 1. Focus of analysis: Should we analyse international relations by focusing on agents or relationships? 2. Level of analysis: Is it morally or ontologically meaningful to consider intrastate realities, such as the level of democracy, when analysing international relations? 3. Role of power: Should the analysis focus on security methods based on changing the behaviour of others with power, or can security be built by neutral or power-negative (self-restrained) methods?

How middle-skilled workers adjust to immigration: the role of occupational skill specificity

PurposeOur study explores the effects of immigration on the employment of native middle-skilled workers, focusing on how this effect varies with the specificity of their occupational skill bundles.Design/methodology/approachExploiting the 2002 opening of the Swiss labor market to EU workers and using register data on the location and occupation of these workers, our findings provide novel results on the labor market effects of immigration.FindingsWe show that the inflow of EU workers led to an increase in the employment of native middle-skilled workers with highly specific occupational skills. This finding could be attributed to immigrant workers reducing existing skill gaps, enhancing the quality of job-worker matches, and alleviating firms' capacity restrictions. This allowed firms to create new jobs, thereby providing increased employment options for middle-skilled workers with highly specialized skills.Originality/valuePrevious literature has predominantly highlighted the disadvantages of specific occupational skills compared to general skills in the context of labor market shocks. However, our findings reveal that workers with specific occupational skills can benefit from an immigration-driven labour market shock. These results suggest that policy conclusions regarding the role of specific occupational skills should be more nuanced.

The reduced value added tax in the catering industry – evaluation and conclusions for subsidy policies

The reduced value added tax in the catering industry – evaluation and conclusions for subsidy policies

Towards sustainable crop protection in agriculture: A framework for research and policy

CONTEXTEuropean countries have set ambitious targets to reduce the risks of pesticide use. Achieving these targets will require a large proportion of farmers to adopt sustainable crop protection practices. However, how to enable this transition and what are the best policies to support farmers remain open questions. OBJECTIVEHere, we provide a coherent review of existing evidence and new insights into farmer decision-making and policy analysis in the context of the transition to more sustainable crop protection. We synthesise and extend the empirical evidence and the conceptual and methodological foundations to examine farmers' decisions to adopt sustainable crop protection and to assess the potential of different policy measures to support this transition. Our analysis focuses on European agriculture. METHODSWe provide a framework and synthesise evidence by reviewing the literature and combining agronomic and economic perspectives. We focus on three issues: i) indicators for empirical analyses of adoption of sustainable crop protection practices; ii) behavioural perspectives on farmer adoption; iii) insights into methodological approaches for assessing adoption of sustainable crop protection practices and related policies. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONWe have identified four main findings and implications. First, sustainable crop protection practices consist of combinations and bundles of individual measures that are not currently regularly considered in policy instruments and policy analysis. Second, definitions of adoption should move from simple adoption metrics to impacts, for example on pesticide risk reduction. Third, behavioural factors are highly relevant to farmers' adoption decisions, but are currently under-researched and under-represented in the field of sustainable crop protection practices. Fourth, the tools currently used for policy analysis do not allow these key aspects to be represented. We draw policy conclusions. SIGNIFICANCEOur analyses help guide policy decisions to achieve pesticide use and risk reduction objectives, and have implications for pesticide policy in Europe and beyond. We identify gaps in current conceptual and methodological approaches, promising avenues for future research, and ways to make results more coherent and comparable. Our analysis thus provides new insights and templates to guide future research and policy analysis on the adoption of sustainable crop protection approaches.

Friendly advice: socializing shaming in the committee against torture

ABSTRACT This article examines whether the relationship between the members of the United Nations’ Treaty Bodies’ (TB) home countries and the countries reviewed by these bodies is significant to the amount and style of criticism the reviewed country receives. This article explains why the source–target relationship is significant to shaming. It defines two shaming styles – Socializing shaming and Disciplining shaming and defines elements that enable the identification of shaming styles. Utilizing data on CAT shaming from 2001 to 2022 and on TB members’ country of origin it shows through regression analysis that the existence of a trade partnership between TB members’ home countries and reviewed countries results in more criticism. This article qualitatively identifies elements of Socializing versus Disciplining shaming in the communications with countries that are trade partners of the TB members’ home countries. It finds that Socializing shaming elements are more prevalent. This article draws theoretical, empirical and policy conclusions.

The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts

We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1959 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. Finally, we argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and job openings to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

The influence of COVID-19 on prison systems—Results of an international stocktaking and penal and penitentiary policy conclusions

The influence of COVID-19 on prison systems—Results of an international stocktaking and penal and penitentiary policy conclusions

Modeling the determinants of tourism diversification: An empirical analysis for Australia

This paper aims to use an augmented tourism demand model to examine the determinants of tourism diversification by using the data from 46 tourism markets and seven tourism activities in Australia from 1987 to 2021. The tourism markets in Australia have been further divided into sub-regions, and each region has been analyzed. The empirical evidence shows that an increase in the average income in the source markets and infrastructure investment in Australia increases tourism diversification. At the same time, the relative price effect appears to hinder Australia's tourism market diversification. Political risk has not been shown to have a significant impact on Australia's tourism market diversification. Policy conclusions and discussions related to the empirical results are presented in the main body of the paper.

Debating Environmental Change and Conflict in the Global South: Learning from Selected Cases in Africa

The crux of this paper centres on the dynamics of environmental change and ensuing conflict. This review paper accentuates the various theoretical underpinnings regarding environmental change and conflict. Particular reference was given to countries in the Global South because they are the most affected by environmental change-related conflict. It was established in this paper that population growth is positively correlated to militarised interstate disputes, although this is not always the case. Again, there is a lack of coding in current conflict dates, to the extent that it is often complicated to ascertain whether specific conflict trends can be traced back to environmental change. Conflict data usually use data sets from the environment-conflict nexus that only capture high-intensity conflict events, which often ignore low-scale conflict within states and districts. Thirdly, the averaging conflict would likely lead to biassed academic and policy conclusions. Fourthly, poor economic performances, either persistent or temporary, have the likelihood of causing violent conflicts. For instance, a land invasion in Brazil occurred immediately after adverse economic shocks.Further environmental degradation can cause migration by perpetuating migration. A significant obstacle encountered in the field of Risk perception literature pertains to the tendency of scholars to heavily depend on excessively deterministic explanations when conceptualising the concept of resource scarcity. Once more, the assessment of environmental change is exclusively based on small variations in temperature and precipitation. The examples examined in this study were selected from diverse geographical regions, encompassing East Africa, Central Africa, West Africa, and Southern Africa. In agro-pastoral West Africa, the frequency of conflicts is on the rise. As a result, policymakers and multilateral funders are increasingly shouldering the responsibility due to the ongoing growth of populations and the changing environmental conditions. There seems to be a correlation between environmental degradation and conflict; however, the relationship between these two is not always apparent or might be the other way around. Based on current theorising and available empirical evidence, it remains debatable whether environmental degradation increases the risk of violent conflict or whether conflict is leading to natural resource deterioration.

Trends of alcohol-attributable deaths in Lithuania 2001–2021: epidemiology and policy conclusions

BackgroundLithuania, a Baltic country in the European Union, can be characterized by high alcohol consumption and attributable burden. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the mortality burden due to alcohol use for the past two decades based on different relative risk functions, identify trends, and analyse the associations of alcohol-attributable burden with alcohol control policies and life expectancy.MethodsThe standard methodology used by the World Health Organization for estimating alcohol-attributable mortality was employed to generate mortality rates for alcohol-attributable mortality, standardized for Lithuania’s 2021 population distribution. Joinpoint analysis, T-tests, correlations, and regression analyses including meta-regressions were used to describe trends and associations.ResultsAge-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality was high in Lithuania during the two decades between 2001 and 2021, irrespective of which relative risks were used for the estimates. Overall, there was a downward trend, mainly in males, which was associated with four years of intensive implementation of alcohol control policies in 2008, 2009, 2017, and 2018. For the remaining years, the rates of alcohol-attributable mortality were stagnant. Among males, the correlations between alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy were 0.90 and 0.76 for Russian and global relative risks respectively, and regression analyses indicated a significant association between changes in alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy, after controlling for gross domestic product.ConclusionsMale mortality and life expectancy in Lithuania were closely linked to alcohol-attributable mortality and markedly associated with strong alcohol control policies. Further implementation of such policies is predicted to lead to further improvements in life expectancy.

The effects of minimum wages on (almost) everything? A review of recent evidence on health and related behaviors

AbstractI review and assess the evidence on minimum wage effects on health outcomes and health‐related behaviors. The evidence on physical health points in conflicting directions, leaning toward adverse effects. Research on effects on diet and obesity sometimes points to beneficial effects, whereas other evidence indicates that higher minimum wages increase smoking and drinking and reduce exercise (and possibly hygiene). In contrast, there is evidence that higher minimum wages reduce suicides, partly consistent with the evidence of positive or mixed effects on other measures of mental health/depression. Overall, policy conclusions that minimum wages improve health are unwarranted or at least premature.

Internet Economics: Writing on the Virtual Wall

Most economic literature on the internet views the internet through the lens of private markets. However, the internet, concretely, as a collection of software protocols, is intrinsically a public good, as economists define them. The article reviews a selection of conventional approaches to the internet; the focus of which, on markets, is an example of Alfred North Whitehead’s fallacy of misplaced concreteness. On closer analysis, these markets turn out to be traditional business activities enabled by internet applications, which are themselves not market “goods.” An alternative analogy is that of a virtual public square, the walls of which are used as a communal bulletin board. This image is actually a close representation of the way that the early internet was developed. A number of policy conclusions are drawn from this contrasting approach. The public good character of the internet needs to be protected against private interests, including the current group of internet oligarchs. In line with Thomas Piketty’s work on the extreme levels of income and wealth inequality that have evolved in the global economy, some small measure of correction can be assisted by making the private appropriators of the public good pay for the services that the internet provides to them.

Konsens und Dissens in der evidenzbasierten Politikberatung

Abstract Economic policy advice often reveals conflicting objectives. Using the example of the German Council of Economic Experts’ evidence-based policy advice, this article presents institutionalised procedures for consensus and dissent in the preparation of its annual report. While consensus is sought in the first two stages of primary data and data analysis, dissent regularly occurs in the third stage of reaching policy conclusions. Dissent is institutionalised through the possibility of authoring minority votes.

Investigating Long-Term Technological Competitiveness: Originality, Generality, and Longevity

The evaluation and international comparison of technological competitiveness has received considerable attention from policymakers over the past decades. Technological competitiveness has been considered a desired outcome of technological innovation, which has become pivotal for a country's economic growth in this era of a global knowledge economy. Government efforts have increasingly shifted toward a long-term perspective of building a solid foundation for continually generating value from technological innovations. This suggests that progress comes in waves, each originating from a major breakthrough or generating potential wide applications. However, little is known regarding the long-term effects of research and development (R&D) on technological competitiveness at the aggregation levels of industries and countries. This article aims to provide an advanced understanding of the term technological competitiveness to enhance its usefulness for the evaluation of country and industry performance and for policy conclusions. This article attempts to propose revised originality, generality, and newly proposed longevity indicators at industry and country levels to evaluate long-term technological competitiveness. Regarding the long-term evaluation of technological competitiveness, this article argues that the originality, generality, and longevity of R&D are features of technological progress that are vital for triggering innovation, and they are becoming increasingly crucial for long-term competitiveness.

The cost impacts of Fit for 55 on shipping and their implications for Swedish freight transport

This paper analyzes the European Commission’s (EC) climate policy package ‘Fit for 55′ and its potential impact on cargo ships calling at Swedish ports. Three scenarios are evaluated using the Swedish national freight transport model. The Main Scenario is based on the EC’sproposal to i) include ships weighing at least 5,000 gross tons (GT) in the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), and to ii) introduce a tax on marine fuel. The Low Scenario includes the EC’s EU ETS proposal but assumes no tax on marine fuel, whilst the High Scenario includes the fuel tax but assumes that ships weighing at least 400 GT are included in the EU ETS. Results show that the EC’s EU ETS proposal excludes 44% of the cargo ships and 22% of the CO2 emissions, and even more so given the use of smaller ships to avoid the EU ETS, as indicated by the freight transport model. The High Scenario implies shifts to larger ships since the increase in fuel costs provides incentives to make useeconomies of scale. Shifts to other transport modes are estimated to be marginal. A policy conclusion is therefore to include smaller ships than 5,000 GT in the EU ETS to further internalize the CO2 costs from cargo ships.

Sufficiency as a Value Standard: From Preferences to Needs

ABSTRACT This paper outlines a conceptual framework for a sufficiency economy, defining sufficiency as the space between a generalizable notion of human wellbeing and ungeneralisable excess. It assumes an objective and universal concept of human needs to define a ‘floor’ and the concept of planetary boundaries to define a ‘ceiling’. This is set up as an alternative to the dominant preference satisfaction theory of value. It begins with a brief survey of the potential contributions of sufficientarianism and limitarianism to this endeavor before outlining a theory of objective, universal human need. This recognizes the contextual variable nature of need satisfiers and the distinct methodology required to adjudicate necessities. It then turns to the planetary boundaries literature and utilizes a sequence of causal and normative reasoning to derive an operational ceiling and the concept of ungeneralisable luxuries. The final section addresses how the concepts of floors and ceilings might be operationalized via forms of dialogic democracy but noting the absence of any such institutions at the global level. Its policy conclusion is that a safe climate cannot be achieved through supply-side mitigation alone, and that fair demand-side mitigation necessarily requires a clear distinction between necessities and unnecessary luxuries, between which (hopefully) lies a space of sufficiency.

Seventy‐five years West German currency reform: Crisis as catalyst for the erosion of the market order

AbstractThe paper analyzes the role of the 1948 currency and economic reform in West Germany for growth and social cohesion in Germany and Europe. It describes the theoretical foundation by Walter Eucken and the implementation and defense of the new economic order by Ludwig Erhard. The paper stresses the positive impact of the market economy on growth and welfare in Germany and Europe. Then, it is shown that Eucken's constituting principles of the market economy were gradually eroded after euro introduction in course of crises, with the negative repercussions on growth and equality being explained. The policy conclusion is that only the reconstitution of price stability in the euro area can prevent a further decline of welfare in Europe. The 1948 economic reforms provide an important blueprint for the necessary reform process.

Can authorities curtail falsified trade & investment data that hide capital movements? Evidence from flows between BRICS and the USA

Usually developing and transitional countries are characterised by foreign exchange and capital scarcities and hence resort to stringent trade and capital control policies. This might become counterproductive and provide incentives to the international traders and investors to go for corrupt practices. This paper investigates how do these tight policies might encourage illegal or hidden capital movements across borders. By presenting both a theoretical and an empirical analysis, where traders and investors rationally misreport to evade stringent trade and investment barriers, we first show that illegal capital outflow takes place through trade misreporting and interestingly, export and import misreporting are cointegrated. Secondly and more importantly illegal capital inflow might take place through overreporting of FDI values and illegal capital outflow and inflow are cointegrated too. Based on the thorough investigation of the BRICS – USA bilateral trade and FDI data, we propose that a less regulated trade and investment regime might benefit these countries more as tight and restrictive policies seem to be self-defeating. Our study comes up with policy conclusions that might minimise the cross-border illegal capital movements.