Comprehensive Observation Network For TRace Gases By AIrLiner Research Articles

Development of a balloon-borne instrument for CO<sub>2</sub> vertical profile observations in the troposphere

Abstract. A novel, practical observation system for measuring tropospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations using a non-dispersive infrared analyzer carried by a small helium-filled balloon (CO2 sonde) has been developed for the first time. Vertical profiles of atmospheric CO2 can be measured with a 240–400 m altitude resolution through regular onboard calibrations using two different CO2 standard gases. The standard deviations (1σ) of the measured mole fractions in the laboratory experiments using a vacuum chamber at a temperature of 298 K were approximately 0.6 ppm at 1010 hPa and 1.2 ppm at 250 hPa. Two CO2 vertical profile data obtained using the CO2 sondes, which were launched on 31 January and 3 February 2011 at Moriya, were compared with the chartered aircraft data on the same days and the commercial aircraft data obtained by the Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by Airliner (COTRAIL) program on the same day (31 January) and 1 d before (2 February). The difference between the CO2 sonde data and these four sets of in situ aircraft data (over the range of each balloon altitude ±100 m) up to the altitude of 7 km was 0.6±1.2 ppm (average ±1σ). In field experiments, the CO2 sonde detected an increase in CO2 concentration in an urban area and a decrease in a forested area near the surface. The CO2 sonde was shown to be a useful instrument for observing and monitoring the vertical profiles of CO2 concentration in the troposphere.

Tropospheric mixing and parametrization of unresolved convective updrafts as implemented in the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS v2.0)

Abstract. Inaccurate representation of mixing in chemistry transport models, mainly suffering from an excessive numerical diffusion, strongly influences the quantitative estimates of the stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE). The Lagrangian view of transport offers an alternative to exploit the numerical diffusion for parametrization of the physical mixing. Here, we follow this concept and discuss how to extend the representation of tropospheric transport in the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). Although the current transport scheme in CLaMS (v1.0) shows a good ability to represent transport of tracers in the stably stratified stratosphere (Pommrich et al., 2014, and the references therein), there are deficiencies in the representation of the effects of convective uplift and mixing due to weak vertical stability in the troposphere. We show how the CLaMS transport scheme was modified by including additional tropospheric mixing and vertical transport due to unresolved convective updrafts by parametrizing these processes in terms of the dry and moist Brunt–Väisälä frequencies. The regions with enhanced convective updrafts in the novel CLaMS simulation covering the 2005–2008 period coincide with regions of enhanced convection as diagnosed from the satellite observations of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). We analyze how well this approach improves the CLaMS representation of CO2 in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, in particular the propagation of the CO2 seasonal cycle from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) into the lower stratosphere. The CO2 values in the PBL are specified by the CarbonTracker data set (version CT2013B), and the Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) observations are used to validate the model. The proposed extension of tropospheric transport increases the influence of the PBL in the middle and upper troposphere and at the same time impacts the STE. The effect on mean age away from the troposphere in the deep stratosphere is weak.

Assessing Lagrangian inverse modelling of urban anthropogenic CO2 fluxes using in situ aircraft and ground-based measurements in the Tokyo area

BackgroundIn order to use in situ measurements to constrain urban anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), we use a Lagrangian methodology based on diffusive backward trajectory tracer reconstructions and Bayesian inversion. The observations of atmospheric CO2 were collected within the Tokyo Bay Area during the Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) flights, from the Tsukuba tall tower of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency and at two surface sites (Dodaira and Kisai) from the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG).ResultsWe produce gridded estimates of the CO2 emissions and calculate the averages for different areas within the Kanto plain where Tokyo is located. Using these inversions as reference we investigate the impact of perturbing different elements in the inversion system. We modified the observations amount and location (surface only sparse vs. including aircraft CO2 observations), the background representation, the wind data used to drive the transport model, the prior emissions magnitude and time resolution and error parameters of the inverse model.ConclusionsOptimized fluxes were consistent with other estimates for the unperturbed simulations. Inclusion of CONTRAIL measurements resulted in significant differences in the magnitude of the retrieved fluxes, 13% on average for the whole domain and of up to 21% for the spatiotemporal cells with the highest fluxes. Changes in the background yielded differences in the retrieved fluxes of up to 50% and more. Simulated biases in the modelled transport cause differences in the retrieved fluxes of up to 30% similar to those obtained using different meteorological winds to advect the Lagrangian trajectories. Perturbations to the prior inventory can impact the fluxes by ~ 10% or more depending on the assumptions on the error covariances. All of these factors can cause significant differences in the estimated flux, and highlight the challenges in estimating regional CO2 fluxes from atmospheric observations.

Seasonal evaluation of tropospheric CO<sub>2</sub> over the Asia-Pacific region observed by the CONTRAIL commercial airliner measurements

Abstract. Measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is indispensable for top-down estimation of surface CO2 sources/sinks by an atmospheric transport model. Despite the growing importance of Asia in the global carbon budget, the region has only been sparsely monitored for atmospheric CO2 and our understanding of atmospheric CO2 variations in the region (and thereby that of the regional carbon budget) is still limited. In this study, we present climatological CO2 distributions over the Asia-Pacific region obtained from the CONTRAIL (Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner) measurements. The high-frequency in-flight CO2 measurements over 10 years reveal a clear seasonal variation in CO2 in the upper troposphere (UT), with a maximum occurring in April–May and a minimum in August–September. The CO2 mole fraction in the UT north of 40∘ N is low and highly variable in June–August due to the arrival of air parcels with seasonally low CO2 caused by the summertime biospheric uptake in boreal Eurasia. For August–September in particular, the UT CO2 is noticeably low within the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone associated with the convective transport of strong biospheric CO2 uptake signal over South Asia. During September as the anticyclone decays, a spreading of this low-CO2 area in the UT is observed in the vertical profiles of CO2 over the Pacific Rim of continental East Asia. Simulation results identify the influence of anthropogenic and biospheric CO2 fluxes in the seasonal evolution of the spatial CO2 distribution over the Asia-Pacific region. It is inferred that a substantial contribution to the UT CO2 over the northwestern Pacific comes from continental East Asian emissions in spring; but in the summer monsoon season, the prominent air mass origin switches to South Asia and/or Southeast Asia with a distinct imprint of the biospheric CO2 uptake. The CONTRAIL CO2 data provide useful constraints to model estimates of surface fluxes and to the evaluation of the satellite observations, in particular for the Asia-Pacific region.

Bias assessment of lower and middle tropospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations of GOSAT/TANSO-FTS TIR version 1 product

Abstract. CO2 observations in the free troposphere can be useful for constraining CO2 source and sink estimates at the surface since they represent CO2 concentrations away from point source emissions. The thermal infrared (TIR) band of the Thermal and Near Infrared Sensor for Carbon Observation (TANSO) Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) on board the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) has been observing global CO2 concentrations in the free troposphere for about 8 years and thus could provide a dataset with which to evaluate the vertical transport of CO2 from the surface to the upper atmosphere. This study evaluated biases in the TIR version 1 (V1) CO2 product in the lower troposphere (LT) and the middle troposphere (MT) (736–287 hPa), on the basis of comparisons with CO2 profiles obtained over airports using Continuous CO2 Measuring Equipment (CME) in the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) project. Bias-correction values are presented for TIR CO2 data for each pressure layer in the LT and MT regions during each season and in each latitude band: 40–20° S, 20° S–20° N, 20–40° N, and 40–60° N. TIR V1 CO2 data had consistent negative biases of 1–1.5 % compared with CME CO2 data in the LT and MT regions, with the largest negative biases at 541–398 hPa, partly due to the use of 10 µm CO2 absorption band in conjunction with 15 and 9 µm absorption bands in the V1 retrieval algorithm. Global comparisons between TIR CO2 data to which the bias-correction values were applied and CO2 data simulated by a transport model based on the Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM-TM) confirmed the validity of the bias-correction values evaluated over airports in limited areas. In low latitudes in the upper MT region (398–287 hPa), however, TIR CO2 data in northern summer were overcorrected by these bias-correction values; this is because the bias-correction values were determined using comparisons mainly over airports in Southeast Asia, where CO2 concentrations in the upper atmosphere display relatively large variations due to strong updrafts.

CO2 concentration and its spatiotemporal variation in the troposphere using multi-sensor satellite data, carbon tracker, and aircraft observations

Satellite-based atmospheric CO2 observations have provided a great opportunity to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle. However, thermal infrared (TIR)-based satellite observations, which are useful for the investigation of vertical distribution and the transport of CO2, have not yet been studied as much as the column amount products derived from shortwave infrared data. In this study, TIR-based satellite CO2 products – from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), and Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation – and carbon tracker mole fraction data were compared with in situ Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) data for different locations. The TES CO2 product showed the best agreement with CONTRAIL CO2 data resulting in R2 ~ 0.87 and root-mean-square error ~0.9. The vertical distribution of CO2 derived by TES strongly depends on the geophysical characteristics of an area. Two different climate regions (i.e., southeastern Japan and southeastern Australia) were examined in terms of the vertical distribution and transport of CO2. Results show that while vertical distribution of CO2 around southeastern Japan was mainly controlled by horizontal and vertical winds, horizontal wind might be a major factor to control the CO2 transport around southeastern Australia. In addition, the vertical transport of CO2 also varies by region, which is mainly controlled by anthropogenic CO2, and horizontal and omega winds. This study improves our understanding of vertical distribution and the transport of CO2, both of which vary by region, using TIR-based satellite CO2 observations and meteorological variables.

인버스 모델링 방법을 통해 추정된 대기 중 이산화탄소 농도와 항공 관측 자료 비교

In this study, the atmospheric <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> concentrations estimated by CT2013B, a recent version of CarbonTracker, are compared with <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> measurements from the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airliner (CONTRAIL) project during 2010-2011. CarbonTracker is an inversion system that estimates surface <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> fluxes using atmospheric <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> concentrations. Overall, the model results represented the atmospheric <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> concentrations well with a slight overestimation compared to observations. In the case of horizontal distribution, variations in the model and observation difference were large in northern Eurasia because most of the model and data mismatch were located in the stratosphere where the model could not represent <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> variations well enough due to low model resolution at high altitude and existing phase shift from the troposphere. In addition, the model and observation difference became larger in boreal summer. Despite relatively large differences at high latitudes and in boreal summer, overall, the modeled <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> concentrations fitted well to observations. Vertical profiles of modeled and observed <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> concentrations showed that the model overestimates the observations at all altitudes, showing nearly constant differences, which implies that the surface <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> concentration is transported well vertically in the transport model. At Narita, overall differences were small, although the correlation between modeled and observed <TEX>$CO_2$</TEX> concentrations decreased at higher altitude, showing relatively large differences above 225 hPa. The vertical profiles at Moscow and Delhi located on land and at Hawaii on the ocean showed that the model is less accurate on land than on the ocean due to various effects (e.g., biospheric effect) on land compared to the homogeneous ocean surface.

Bias corrections of GOSAT SWIR XCO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; and XCH&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; with TCCON data and their evaluation using aircraft measurement data

Abstract. We describe a method for removing systematic biases of column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) and CH4 (XCH4) derived from short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) spectra of the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). We conduct correlation analyses between the GOSAT biases and simultaneously retrieved auxiliary parameters. We use these correlations to bias correct the GOSAT data, removing these spurious correlations. Data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) were used as reference values for this regression analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of this correction method, the uncorrected/corrected GOSAT data were compared to independent XCO2 and XCH4 data derived from aircraft measurements taken for the Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) project, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole observations (HIPPO) program, and the GOSAT validation aircraft observation campaign over Japan. These comparisons demonstrate that the empirically derived bias correction improves the agreement between GOSAT XCO2/XCH4 and the aircraft data. Finally, we present spatial distributions and temporal variations of the derived GOSAT biases.

Algorithm update of the GOSAT/TANSO-FTS thermal infrared CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; product (version 1) and validation of the UTLS CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; data using CONTRAIL measurements

Abstract. The Thermal and Near Infrared Sensor for Carbon Observation (TANSO)–Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) on board the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) has been observing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in several atmospheric layers in the thermal infrared (TIR) band since its launch. This study compared TANSO-FTS TIR version 1 (V1) CO2 data and CO2 data obtained in the Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) project in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), where the TIR band of TANSO-FTS is most sensitive to CO2 concentrations, to validate the quality of the TIR V1 UTLS CO2 data from 287 to 162 hPa. We first evaluated the impact of considering TIR CO2 averaging kernel functions on CO2 concentrations using CO2 profile data obtained by the CONTRAIL Continuous CO2 Measuring Equipment (CME), and found that the impact at around the CME level flight altitudes (∼ 11 km) was on average less than 0.5 ppm at low latitudes and less than 1 ppm at middle and high latitudes. From a comparison made during flights between Tokyo and Sydney, the averages of the TIR upper-atmospheric CO2 data were within 0.1 % of the averages of the CONTRAIL CME CO2 data with and without TIR CO2 averaging kernels for all seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The results of comparisons for all of the eight airline routes showed that the agreements of TIR and CME CO2 data were worse in spring and summer than in fall and winter in the Northern Hemisphere in the upper troposphere. While the differences between TIR and CME CO2 data were on average within 1 ppm in fall and winter, TIR CO2 data had a negative bias up to 2.4 ppm against CME CO2 data with TIR CO2 averaging kernels at the northern low and middle latitudes in spring and summer. The negative bias at the northern middle latitudes resulted in the maximum of TIR CO2 concentrations being lower than that of CME CO2 concentrations, which led to an underestimate of the amplitude of CO2 seasonal variation.

Carbon balance of China constrained by CONTRAIL aircraft CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; measurements

Abstract. Terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) flux estimates in China using atmospheric inversion method are beset with considerable uncertainties because very few atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements are available. In order to improve these estimates, nested atmospheric CO2 inversion during 2002–2008 is performed in this study using passenger aircraft-based CO2 measurements over Eurasia from the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airliner (CONTRAIL) project. The inversion system includes 43 regions with a focus on China, and is based on the Bayesian synthesis approach and the TM5 transport model. The terrestrial ecosystem carbon flux modeled by the Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model and the ocean exchange simulated by the OPA-PISCES-T model are considered as the prior fluxes. The impacts of CONTRAIL CO2 data on inverted China terrestrial carbon fluxes are quantified, the improvement of the inverted fluxes after adding CONTRAIL CO2 data are rationed against climate factors and evaluated by comparing the simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations with three independent surface CO2 measurements in China. Results show that with the addition of CONTRAIL CO2 data, the inverted carbon sink in China increases while those in South and Southeast Asia decrease. Meanwhile, the posterior uncertainties over these regions are all reduced (2–12%). CONTRAIL CO2 data also have a large effect on the inter-annual variation of carbon sinks in China, leading to a better correlation between the carbon sink and the annual mean climate factors. Evaluations against the CO2 measurements at three sites in China also show that the CONTRAIL CO2 measurements may have improved the inversion results.

The seasonal variation of the CO2 flux over Tropical Asia estimated from GOSAT, CONTRAIL, and IASI

AbstractWe estimate the CO2 flux over Tropical Asia in 2009, 2010, and 2011 using Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) total column CO2(XCO2) and in situ measurements of CO2. Compared to flux estimates from assimilating surface measurements of CO2, GOSAT XCO2 estimates a more dynamic seasonal cycle and a large source in March–May 2010. The more dynamic seasonal cycle is consistent with earlier work by Patra et al. (2011), and the enhanced 2010 source is supported by independent upper air CO2 measurements from the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airliner (CONTRAIL) project. Using Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements of total column CO (XCO), we show that biomass burning CO2 can explain neither the dynamic seasonal cycle nor the 2010 source. We conclude that both features must come from the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the 2010 source points to biosphere response to above‐average temperatures that year.

Validation of XCO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; derived from SWIR spectra of GOSAT TANSO-FTS with aircraft measurement data

Abstract. Column-averaged dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide (XCO2) retrieved from Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) Short-Wavelength InfraRed (SWIR) observations were validated with aircraft measurements by the Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) project, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US Department of Energy (DOE), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) program, and the GOSAT validation aircraft observation campaign over Japan. To calculate XCO2 based on aircraft measurements (aircraft-based XCO2), tower measurements and model outputs were used for additional information near the surface and above the tropopause, respectively. Before validation, we investigated the impacts of GOSAT SWIR column averaging kernels (CAKs) and the shape of a priori profiles on the aircraft-based XCO2 calculation. The differences between aircraft-based XCO2 with and without the application of GOSAT CAK were evaluated to be less than ±0.4 ppm at most, and less than ±0.1 ppm on average. Therefore, we concluded that the GOSAT CAK produces only a minor effect on the aircraft-based XCO2 calculation in terms of the overall uncertainty of GOSAT XCO2. We compared GOSAT data retrieved within ±2 or ±5° latitude/longitude boxes centered at each aircraft measurement site to aircraft-based data measured on a GOSAT overpass day. The results indicated that GOSAT XCO2 over land regions agreed with aircraft-based XCO2, except that the former is biased by −0.68 ppm (−0.99 ppm) with a standard deviation of 2.56 ppm (2.51 ppm), whereas the averages of the differences between the GOSAT XCO2 over ocean and the aircraft-based XCO2 were −1.82 ppm (−2.27 ppm) with a standard deviation of 1.04 ppm (1.79 ppm) for ±2° (±5°) boxes.

Imposing strong constraints on tropical terrestrial CO2 fluxes using passenger aircraft based measurements

Because very few measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are available in the tropics, estimates of surface CO2 fluxes in tropical regions are beset with considerable uncertainties. To improve estimates of tropical terrestrial fluxes, atmospheric CO2 inversion was performed using passenger aircraft based measurements of the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airliner (CONTRAIL) project in addition to the surface measurement data set of GLOBALVIEW–CO2. Regional monthly fluxes at the earth's surface were estimated using the Bayesian synthesis approach focusing on the period 2006–2008 using the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model‐based Transport Model (NICAM‐TM). By adding the aircraft to the surface data, the posterior flux errors were greatly reduced; specifically, error reductions of up to 64% were found for tropical Asia regions. This strong impact is closely related to efficient vertical transport in the tropics. The optimized surface fluxes using the CONTRAIL data were evaluated by comparing the simulated atmospheric CO2 distributions with independent aircraft measurements of the Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container (CARIBIC) project. The inversion with the CONTRAIL data yields the global carbon sequestration rates of 2.22 ± 0.28 Pg C yr−1 for the terrestrial biosphere and 2.24 ± 0.27 Pg C yr−1 for the oceans (the both are adjusted by riverine input of CO2). For the first time the CONTRAIL CO2 measurements were used in an inversion system to identify the areas of greatest impact in terms of reducing flux uncertainties.

Three-dimensional variations of atmospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;: aircraft measurements and multi-transport model simulations

Abstract. Numerical simulation and validation of three-dimensional structure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is necessary for quantification of transport model uncertainty and its role on surface flux estimation by inverse modeling. Simulations of atmospheric CO2 were performed using four transport models and two sets of surface fluxes compared with an aircraft measurement dataset of Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL), covering various latitudes, longitudes, and heights. Under this transport model intercomparison project, spatiotemporal variations of CO2 concentration for 2006–2007 were analyzed with a three-dimensional perspective. Results show that the models reasonably simulated vertical profiles and seasonal variations not only over northern latitude areas but also over the tropics and southern latitudes. From CONTRAIL measurements and model simulations, intrusion of northern CO2 in to the Southern Hemisphere, through the upper troposphere, was confirmed. Furthermore, models well simulated the vertical propagation of seasonal variation in the northern free troposphere. However, significant model-observation discrepancies were found in Asian regions, which are attributable to uncertainty of the surface CO2 flux data. In summer season, differences in latitudinal gradients by the fluxes are comparable to or greater than model-model differences even in the free troposphere. This result suggests that active summer vertical transport sufficiently ventilates flux signals up to the free troposphere and the models could use those for inferring surface CO2 fluxes.

Evaluating a 3-D transport model of atmospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; using ground-based, aircraft, and space-borne data

Abstract. We evaluate the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model (v8-02-01) of CO2 over 2003–2006, driven by GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorology from the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, using surface, aircraft and space-borne concentration measurements of CO2. We use an established ensemble Kalman Filter to estimate a posteriori biospheric+biomass burning (BS + BB) and oceanic (OC) CO2 fluxes from 22 geographical regions, following the TransCom-3 protocol, using boundary layer CO2 data from a subset of GLOBALVIEW surface sites. Global annual net BS + BB + OC CO2 fluxes over 2004–2006 for GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) meteorology are −4.4 ± 0.9 (−4.2 ± 0.9), −3.9 ± 0.9 (−4.5 ± 0.9), and −5.2 ± 0.9 (−4.9 ± 0.9) PgC yr−1, respectively. After taking into account anthropogenic fossil fuel and bio-fuel emissions, the global annual net CO2 emissions for 2004–2006 are estimated to be 4.0 ± 0.9 (4.2 ± 0.9), 4.8 ± 0.9 (4.2 ± 0.9), and 3.8 ± 0.9 (4.1 ± 0.9) PgC yr−1, respectively. The estimated 3-yr total net emission for GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) meteorology is equal to 12.5 (12.4) PgC, agreeing with other recent top-down estimates (12–13 PgC). The regional a posteriori fluxes are broadly consistent in the sign and magnitude of the TransCom-3 study for 1992–1996, but we find larger net sinks over northern and southern continents. We find large departures from our a priori over Europe during summer 2003, over temperate Eurasia during 2004, and over North America during 2005, reflecting an incomplete description of terrestrial carbon dynamics. We find GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) a posteriori CO2 concentrations reproduce the observed surface trend of 1.91–2.43 ppm yr−1 (parts per million per year), depending on latitude, within 0.15 ppm yr−1 (0.2 ppm yr−1) and the seasonal cycle within 0.2 ppm (0.2 ppm) at all latitudes. We find the a posteriori model reproduces the aircraft vertical profile measurements of CO2 over North America and Siberia generally within 1.5 ppm in the free and upper troposphere but can be biased by up to 4–5 ppm in the boundary layer at the start and end of the growing season. The model has a small negative bias in the free troposphere CO2 trend (1.95–2.19 ppm yr−1) compared to AIRS data which has a trend of 2.21–2.63 ppm yr−1 during 2004–2006, consistent with surface data. Model CO2 concentrations in the upper troposphere, evaluated using CONTRAIL (Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner) aircraft measurements, reproduce the magnitude and phase of the seasonal cycle of CO2 in both hemispheres. We generally find that the GEOS meteorology reproduces much of the observed tropospheric CO2 variability, suggesting that these meteorological fields will help make significant progress in understanding carbon fluxes as more data become available.