Composition Of Capital Flows Research Articles

IS INDONESIA’S CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OPTIMAL? EVIDENCE FROM AN INTERTEMPORAL APPROACH

This study investigates whether Indonesia’s Current Account (CA) balance is intertemporally solvent. We provide fresh evidence on Indonesia’s CA deficit solvency by considering post-crisis period data and conducting sub-sample analysis. Our findings suggest that Indonesia’s CA is not solvent. We notice evidence of excess lending prior to the global financial crisis of 2008 and excess borrowing in the postcrisis period. Policymakers need to focus on the composition of capital flows and management of volatile capital flows since discouraging foreign capital inflows may serve as a deterrent to economic growth.

Financial Globalization and Inequality: Capital Flows as a Two-Edged Sword

We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different types of flows have different distributional effects. Their overall impact depends on the composition of capital flows, their interaction, and on broader economic and institutional conditions. A comprehensive set of policies – macroeconomic, financial and labour- and product-market specific – is important for facilitating wider sharing of the benefits of financial globalization.

Financial Globalization and Inequality: Capital Flows as a Two-Edged Sword

We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within-country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different types of flows have different distributional effects. Their overall impact depends on the composition of capital flows, their interaction, and on broader economic and institutional conditions. A comprehensive set of policies – macroeconomic, financial and labor- and product-market specific – is important for facilitating wider sharing of the benefits of financial globalization.

Financial Globalization and Inequality

We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within-country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different types of flows have different distributional effects. Their overall impact depends on the composition of capital flows, their interaction, and on broader economic and institutional conditions. A comprehensive set of policies – macroeconomic, financial and labor- and product-market specific – is important for facilitating wider sharing of the benefits of financial globalization.

Financial Globalization and Inequality: Capital Flows as a Two-Edged Sword

We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within-country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different types of flows have different distributional effects. Their overall impact depends on the composition of capital flows, their interaction, and on broader economic and institutional conditions. A comprehensive set of policies – macroeconomic, financial and labor- and product-market specific – is important for facilitating wider sharing of the benefits of financial globalization.

Dynamics of capital controls: panel evidence from Asia

PurposeThis study empirically examines the effect of capital controls on the volume and composition of capital flows at aggregated as well as at disaggregated level by different asset classes such as debt, FDI, equity, and derivatives.Design/methodology/approachSeveral dynamic panel SYS-GMM models are employed on two sets of unique data on cross-border capital flows and capital control index along with control variables at aggregated and disaggregated level by different asset classes during 1995–2015 for a sample of 31 Asian economies.FindingsEconometric findings suggest that higher capital controls effectively reduce gross capital flows. The reduction in gross capital flows is largely found to be on account of effectiveness of controls on equity flows. However, the impact of controls on overall debt and derivative flows is found to be insignificant. Further, it was found that an increase in direct capital controls disaggregated by inflow and outflow categories significantly reduced the inflow of debt and equity + FDI flows and outflow of equity + FDI and derivative flows. Finally, the study did not find any substitution effect (due to indirect controls) and net effect on capital flows.Practical implicationsResults of such empirical examination may enable governments in respective countries to pursue prudent and rational capital controls as a shield against capital flight and shock transmission.Social implicationsPreventing capital flight through effective controls has macroeconomic benefits such as maintaining stability in income, growth, interest rate, exchange rate, and employment levels for the society.Originality/valueThe primary contribution of the study is the analysis of effectiveness of capital controls disaggregated by different asset categories such as debt, equity, FDI, and derivatives using two unique recent data sets for a large sample of Asian economies.

Capital Account Policies in Emerging Asian Economies: Are They Effective in the 2000s?

This paper examines the effectiveness of capital account policy in terms of its ability to affect the volume and composition of capital flows, relieve pressures on real exchange rates, and foster monetary policy independence. Ten emerging Asian economies are used as case studies to assess the effectiveness of capital account policy during 2000–2015. The results suggest that some types of capital controls are effective in reducing the volume of capital flows and pressure on real exchange rates. The choice of exchange rate regime matters in terms of the effectiveness of capital controls for fostering monetary policy independence. Although some types of capital controls are effective in creating macroeconomic stability, implementing capital account policy needs to be undertaken with caution. This is because substitution or complementarity among capital controls is evident, both within and across countries in the region. It seems that strong economic fundamentals are more important than capital account policy for changing the composition of capital inflows toward more stable and long-term flows.

Capital flows to Asia and Latin America: Does institutional quality matter?

AbstractUsing a sample of 28 emerging market economies from Asia and Latin America spanning 1990–2013, we show that the marginal effect of capital flows on growth is positive and contingent on the threshold level of institutional quality (IQ). The conditional effect of capital flows holds for both the income per capita growth and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We also determine the different threshold levels of IQ at which the marginal effect of capital flows is positive. The overall level of IQ in the Asian countries is superior to the Latin American countries and requires a lower threshold level to exert any positive effect. While the same conditional effect of IQ holds in Latin America for TFP growth, this effect is reversed in Asia. For very high levels of IQ (91st percentile), the marginal effect of capital flows on TFP growth in Asia is almost negligible. The marginal effects also vary based on the composition of capital flows in each region.

India’s external commercial borrowing: Pulled by domestic fundamentals or pushed by global conditions?

External commercial borrowing (ECB) has assumed growing prominence in the Indian economy. This paper analyzes the trends and determinants of ECB flows to India using monthly data for the period 2004M1 to 2015M12. Employing the Johansen cointegration and error correction techniques, our analysis suggests that both domestic factors and global economic conditions have influenced India’s ECB inflows. Regulatory changes in the capital account were found to have the greatest effect on ECB flows among variables considered. While the long-term trend has been toward greater openness, the regulatory authorities have also intervened with an eye to macroeconomic and exchange rate stabilization resulting in sometimes unwitting changes in the composition of capital flows. Other factors found to be significant are the rupee to US dollar exchange rate, the economic growth differential between India and the OECD, the interest rate differential between the domestic lending rate and LIBOR, international credit conditions, and India’s sovereign credit risk rating. Structural break analysis suggests that the global financial crisis of 2008 reduced ECB inflows significantly. Given the impact of changing capital account regulation on the volatility of ECB flows, we recommend simplifying and consolidating India’s regulatory framework without compromising the macro-prudential principles of capital account management.

Foreign Direct Investment and Poverty Reduction

It is widely proclaimed that capital account liberalization would immensely benefit developing economies because once capital controls are lifted, developing economies create a potential for movement of capital. And, this free movement of capital could possibly increase growth thereby lifting millions out of poverty. India has been gradually liberalizing since the 1980s and throughout more capital inflows were observed compared to outflows. Also, the composition of capital flows has been changing since the 1980s–with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows rising steadily post-1991compared to portfolio and debt flows. However, since 2000, FDI outflows from India were also witnessed. In this paper we empirically test the impact of FDI flows on poverty in India for 1980–2011. To provide a correct perspective to India’s performance we also analyze the link between FDI flows and poverty for SAARC countries. For a better understanding of how FDI flows impact poverty, we analyze the outflows and inflows separately. The results show both similarities and contrasts in the behaviour of India in comparison with the other SAARC countries.

Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for Emerging Market Economies

Contemporary economies of developing countries are changing due to rapid changes in the world economy. The economies of emerging market countries are witnessing changes in the composition of capital flows because world stock markets are expanding rapidly. Foreign direct investment and stock market boom are the indicators of the changing world economic order. The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between stock market development and economic Growth. Empirically, based on the data for 17 emerging market and 10 developed market economies during the 12 years’ period, from 2000 - 2011 using the generalized method of momentum (GMM) for dynamic panel data. To control for the country specific effect, the model is further estimated for the developed and emerging member economies. The key findings of the study reveal that there exists statistically significant relationship between stock market development and economic growth both directly, as well as indirectly by boosting investment behavior. The results also indicate robustly that stock market development is an important wheel for economic growth

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Stock Market Development: Evidence From Pakistan

Developing countries are witnessing changes in the composition of capital flows in their economies due to the expansion and integration of the world equity market. This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment on the stock market development in Pakistan. The key interest revolves around the complementary or substitution role of foreign direct investment to the development of stock market. ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegrationand ECM are employed for the analysis. Our results support the complementary role of foreign direct investment to the stock market development in Pakistan. Moreover, domestic savings, income and inflation are the other macroeconomic variables that affect the development of stock market in Pakistan. Reference

Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Evidence from Thailand

This paper examines the effectiveness of capital account policies in Thailand during the period 1993–2010. Our results show that policies toward capital account liberalization tend to be more effective than those toward capital account restriction in changing the volume of capital flows. The composition of capital flows also matters for the effectiveness of policy measures. When capital restrictions were introduced in the late 2000s, our results show that there was a switching effect from more capital restricted asset classes toward less restricted ones. This study also finds that the central bank did not gain more monetary autonomy from introducing capital inflow restrictions. However, such restrictions, both inflows and outflows (liability side), could help limit the fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate, especially relative to the US dollar in 2000–2010.

Is FDI a Safer Form of Financing?

It has been common to attribute financial crises to short-term capital inflows, while foreign direct investment (FDI) is seen as a safer form of finance. The relationship between crises and the composition of capital flows is particularly relevant at present because the flow of capital to Latin America is becoming increasingly dominated by FDI. This paper asks whether the composition of capital inflows and of the stock of foreign liabilities is relevant for financial crises, be it their frequency, depth, or length. It explores the possible role of FDI as a benign form of external liability relative to other classes of liabilities, reviewing both analytical and empirical arguments.

Capital Mobility in Developing Asia: How Does It Respond to the Financial Crises?

This paper examines movements of capital flows in developing Asia, with an emphasis on their responses to the Asian and global financial crises. The determinants of capital flows are then further examined. Portfolio investment and bank loans (both inflows and outflows) are more prone to the financial crises than foreign direct investment. The determinant analysis shows that economic prospects of G3 countries are crucial in affecting movements of portfolio investment and bank loans. It is, therefore, not surprising that the recent global economic slowdown from the G3 markets resulted in the significant pullbacks of short-term capital. However, strong economic fundamentals, especially financial institutions, in the region help most of developing Asia to successfully redress and manage most of the adverse effects. The complementarity between capital flows and saving in the region is also found in the analysis, which may shed light on problems of efficient use of saving within the region. Shifting the composition of capital flows to longer-term capitals and further developing financial markets are two key policy inferences that can be drawn from the study.

Controlling capital? Legal restrictions and the asset composition of international financial flows

How effective are capital account restrictions? We provide new answers based on a novel panel data set of capital controls, disaggregated by asset class and by inflows/outflows, covering 74 countries during 1995–2005. We find the estimated effects of capital controls to vary markedly across the types of capital controls, both by asset categories, by the direction of flows, and across countries' income levels. In particular, both debt and equity controls can substantially reduce outflows, with little effect on capital inflows, but only high-income countries appear able to effectively impose debt (outflow) controls. The results imply that capital controls can affect both the volume and the composition of capital flows.

Composition of International Capital Flows: A Survey

In this survey, we focus on key mechanisms through which liquidity and financial shocks affect major types of capital flows. We focus on a few models that examine the role of asymmetric information, liquidity preferences, limited enforcement, and incomplete markets on the composition of capital flows. We show that the information asymmetry between foreign and domestic investors leads to inefficient investment allocation and borrowing in a country that finances its domestic investment through foreign debt or foreign equity. In the presence of asymmetric information between sellers and buyers in the capital market, foreign direct investment is associated with higher liquidation costs due to the adverse selection. The exposure to liquidity shocks can explain the composition of equity flows (FDI vs. FPI) between developed and emerging countries, as well as FDI flow patterns during financial crisis. In each section we also discuss the empirical relevance of the models in view of the empirical evidence.

Insuring Against Private Capital Flows: Is it Worth the Premium? What are the Alternatives?

Following an analysis of the forces behind the capital flows paradox observed in the era of advancing financial globalization, this paper sets out to investigate the opportunity costs of self-insurance through precautionary reserve holdings. We reject the idea of reserves as low-cost protection against the vagaries of global finance. We also deny that arrangements giving rise to their rapid accumulation might be sustainable in the first place. Alternative policy options open to developing countries are explored, designed to limit both the risks of financial globalization and the costs of insurance-type responses. We propose comprehensive capital account management as an alternative to full capital account liberalization. The aims of a permanent regulatory regime of capital controls, with respect to both the aggregate size and the composition of capital flows, are twofold: first, to maintain sufficient macro policy space; second, to assure a good micro fit of external expertise incorporated in foreign direct investment as part of a country's development strategy.

Controlling Capital? Legal Restrictions and the Asset Composition of International Financial Flows

How effective are capital account restrictions? We provide new answers based on a novel panel data set of capital controls, disaggregated by asset class and by inflows/outflows, covering 74 countries during 1995-2005. We find the estimated effects of capital controls to vary markedly across the types of capital controls, both by asset categories, by the direction of flows, and across countries' income levels. In particular, both debt and equity controls can substantially reduce outflows, with little effect on capital inflows, but only high-income countries appear able to effectively impose debt (outflow) controls. The results imply that capital controls can affect both the volume and the composition of capital flows.

Monetary Policy Shocks and Portfolio Choice

The paper shows that monetary policy shocks exert a substantial effect on the size and composition of capital flows and the trade balance for the United States, with a 100 basis point easing raising net capital inflows and lowering the trade balance by 1% of GDP, and explaining about 20-25% of their time variation. Monetary policy easing causes positive returns to both equities and bonds. Yet such a monetary policy easing shock also induces a shift in portfolio composition out of equities and into bonds, implying a negative conditional correlation between flows in equities and bonds. Moreover, such shocks induce a negative conditional correlation between equity flows and equity returns, but a positive conditional correlation between bond flows and bond returns. The findings thus provide evidence for the presence of a portfolio rebalancing motive behind investment decisions in equities, but the dominance of what is akin to a return chasing motive for bonds, conditional on monetary policy shocks. The results also shed light on the puzzle of the strongly time-varying equity-bond return correlations found in the literature.