Components Of Population Change Research Articles

Statistical transformation of the population and social statistics system

This presentation describes the proposed population and social statistics system, built around the Dynamic Population Model (DPM). The current population estimation system relies on the census. This provides granular data every 10 years, but the quality of population estimates declines between census years. The new system will deliver high quality population statistics, every year.
 The DPM is a modelling approach which follows the cohort component method. It uses various data sources to measure population counts and components of population change, producing a coherent set of estimates. We use the DPM to produce admin-based population estimates for mid-year 2011 to 2022 for all local authorities in England and Wales. For international migration, we replace survey-based methods with administrative data. Rather than survey-based migration intentions, we estimate migration using observed activity.
 The Coronavirus pandemic underlined the need for more timely population estimates. The DPM allows us to publish early, provisional estimates which are confirmed as the data feeds being used mature. In February 2023 we published research statistics for 2011-2022 mid-year population estimates, four months ahead of the date scheduled for the publication of the equivalent national statistics. We demonstrated the need to incorporate into the model a robust coverage adjustment method. Research is currently under way to optimise the coverage adjustment data and methods.
 Our international migration estimates use different data sources and methods for each nationality grouping. We currently publish estimates on immigration, emigration and net migration for non-EU, EU and British nationals.
 Transformation of the population and social statistics system will produce more timely and coherent estimates to better meet user needs. Flexible by design, our system will be able to reliably adapt to changes in social behaviour, changes in the data available for estimation and changes in users’ statistical needs.

A Bayesian Cohort Component Projection Model to Estimate Women of Reproductive Age at the Subnational Level in Data-Sparse Settings.

Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at risk of maternal mortality and unmet need for contraception. However, in many low-income countries, data on population counts and components of population change are limited, and so subnational levels and trends are unclear. We present a Bayesian constrained cohort component model for the estimation and projection of subnational populations. The model builds on a cohort component projection framework, incorporates census data and estimates from the United Nation's World Population Prospects, and uses characteristic mortality schedules to obtain estimates of population counts and the components of population change, including internal migration. The data required as inputs to the model are minimal and available across a wide range of countries, including most low-income countries. The model is applied to estimate and project populations by county in Kenya for 1979-2019 and is validated against the 2019 Kenyan census.

Long term population decline and the impacts of COVID-19 in South Australia’s regions

Background South Australian regions have been given little attention in discussions on population decline.
 Aims This paper aims to examine the nature and incidence of population decline in South Australia as well as evaluate the potential impacts of COVID-19.
 Data and methods Estimated Resident Population data from 2001 to 2020, and Census data from 2006 and 2016, were used to investigate demographic and economic change. Measures of population change, age structure, employment and components of population change were used.
 Results Population decline has been a feature of South Australia’s regions for decades and continues to be so as more of the population concentrates in its capital and regional centres where greater opportunities of employment and greater provisions of amenities are available. COVID-19 has the potential to accelerate this change if South Australia’s vulnerable regions are not able to absorb the economic impacts the pandemic poses.
 Conclusions A strong driver of population decline in the regions is employment loss in core industries. Strategies that support these industries or otherwise aim to stimulate economic activity in these communities are required to moderate further decline in South Australia’s regions especially as the economy recovers from the impacts of COVID-19.

Religious Affiliations in Austria at the Provincial Level: Estimates for Vorarlberg, 2001-2018

Religious affiliation is nowadays getting plenty of attention in Austria, in the public spherewith increased presence in the news and in the policy discourse. The aim of this study is toestimate the religious composition of the population of Vorarlberg in 2018, takingadvantage of available data, such as census information and statistics on components ofpopulation change. The latest census that collected data on religion was implemented in2001 and since then population counts have been relying on register data and did not collectdata on the religious affiliation of the Austrian population. Therefore, to study changes inthe religious composition of the population residing in Vorarlberg, it needs to be estimatedusing population projections following a methodology that was developed by Goujon et al.(2017) in a project to reconstruct (and project into the future) the population of Austria andVienna in 2016. The reconstruction shows that Vorarlberg follows similar trends as thoseobserved in Austria since 2001: 1) The share of Roman Catholics declines strongly, 2) thereis a strong increase in the population with no religious affiliation, and 3) the share ofMuslims has increased substantially which is the outcome of two main trends – fertility andmigration. The study of the origin (country of birth) of Muslims residing in Vorarlberg in2018 points at an increasing Austrian-born population, originating from parents or grandparentsborn predominantly in Turkey but also at a diversification as a result of the 2015refugee crisis.

A new look at population change and regional development in Aotearoa New Zealand

AbstractIn New Zealand, population change is interlinked with regional development. Places growing in population attract regional investment, while regional investment—or lack thereof—can change migration patterns. However, to determine the appropriate response to population change for a community, it is important to understand that population change involves much more than “just” migration. Specifically, it involves interactions between the three components of population change: natural change (births minus deaths), net migration (international and internal) and population ageing (changing cohort size). For example, migration can be negative, but growth can be positive due to underlying natural increase or growth in cohort size. Responses need to differ, depending on these drivers. The goal of this article is to provide new insights into these interactions using data for 275 cities, towns and rural centres (hereafter “urban places”) in New Zealand for the period 1976 to 2013. The results show that natural change has been consistently positive for most urban places up to the present, although projections indicate that in the future this component will become negative across much of the country. At the same time, net migration shows considerable spatial variation, not only in terms of volume, but also direction (negative or positive), which differs markedly by age. A net gain of people of retirement age can offset a net loss of young adults to deliver overall growth, and vice‐versa, but the two have very different implications for longer term growth. An analysis of the drivers of net migration using GIS and machine learning techniques provides an indication of the importance of economic conditions (land‐use and access to markets), lifestyle, access to essential services (hospitals and education) and their interaction with age in regional change. The results show that population age is the best predictor of migration. Younger people are moving to cities for tertiary education and work and older people near or in retirement are moving to smaller lifestyle towns but also want to be close to amenities such as hospitals and international airports. The research also shows that natural lifestyle characteristics (landscape and climate), in combination with age are just as important as economic conditions for understanding migration. Regional development, such as infrastructure that helps business (ports and services) is important for the working age population but not necessarily the retirement age group. When regional development, age/life‐cycle stage and lifestyle come together, such as in Queenstown and Tauranga, net migration gain is high.

Economists and their Ideas about Population and Economic Development

Here I will discuss about many spheres about population economics. Here there will be presented description about demography and its nature. Many components of population change will be presented. Ways of population and development will be discussed. Many theories related this topics I will present here. Many upholders with their theory here I will present. It can be considered as complete whole of a discussion of a topic.

Using linked administrative and census data for migration research

Migration is a core component of population change and is both a symptom and a cause of major economic and social phenomena. However, data limitations mean that gaps remain in our understanding of the patterns and processes of mobility. This is particularly the case for internal migration, which remains under-researched, despite being quantitatively much more significant than international migration. Using the Scottish Longitudinal Study, this paper evaluates the potential value of General Practitioner administrative health data from the National Health Service that can be linked into census-based longitudinal studies for advancing migration research. Issues relating to data quality are considered and, using the illustrative example of internal migration by country of birth, an argument is developed contending that such approaches can offer novel ways of comprehending internal migration, by shedding additional light on the nature of both movers and the moves that they make.

Indirect Estimation of Selected Measures of Fertility and Marital Fertility from Information on CWR (0-9): An Application to India /States /Districts

Fertility is one of the important components of population change, the other two being mortality and migration. When vital statistical data on number of births is readily available it is estimated directly using various direct measures of fertility such as the crude birth rate (CBR). When the information on number of births is not directly available, fertility is measured using the census information on child woman ratios (CWR) of various types. CWR has several limitations, but gained importance with the attempts made by Rele in 1963, and followed by several other researchers such as Hauer and his co-authors in 2013 deriving TFR from it. In the present study yet another attempt is made to use CWRs to derive not only TFR but also other summary indicators such as the TMFR. A set of simple mathematical formula have been used to estimate the fertility and marital fertility using the CWR of the ages 0-9. The 2011 census age-sex data of districts in India was used to derive a set of fertility estimates for total, rural and urban areas of all districts. Further, these estimates of 2011 have been compared with the estimates of 2011 earlier made by Guilmoto and Rajan to analyse the robustness of the estimates. Keywords : Fertility, Child Women Ratio, Indirect Estimation, Age-sex data, TFR, TMFR, India.

Growing gap in population dynamics, closing the gap in population size: the European Union and the United States compared

This paper investigates differences in population development in the European Union and the United States. The population projections recently published by the United Nations forecast expected a slowdown in growth and a shrinking of the EU population and a continued growth in the US. Therefore, the paper aims to find out which components of population change are primarily responsible for the different population dynamics. The article first explores the role of population change and migration in total population growth. Then it investigates fertility and mortality patterns, focusing on demographic behaviour of ethnic/racial groups in the US and regional disparities in Europe. The paper documents that fertility differences primarily cause the different population dynamics in the EU and the US. This is reflected in the forecast convergence towards the same population size.

The asymmetric environmental consequences of population change: an exploratory county-level study of land development in the USA, 2001-2011

In this exploratory study, we decompose population growth and decline into their constituent elements to examine how demographic change drives environmental change. Using the example of land development, the analysis integrates county-level measures of births, deaths, in-migration, and out-migration with data on built-up land area from the National Land Cover Database for the years 2001–2006 and then 2006–2011. Drawing from human ecology and environmental demography, we hypothesize that the components of population change will have asymmetric impacts on the construction of the built environment as a form of land development. Results from spatial error models, with a contemporaneous and a temporarily lagged dependent variable, show conditional support for these hypotheses. While each component of demographic change has a unique effect on the dependent variable, the rate at which births increase built-up land area is significantly greater than the rate at which deaths slow this process down.

America's Churning Races: Race and Ethnicity Response Changes Between Census 2000 and the 2010 Census.

A person's racial or ethnic self-identification can change over time and across contexts, which is a component of population change not usually considered in studies that use race and ethnicity as variables. To facilitate incorporation of this aspect of population change, we show patterns and directions of individual-level race and Hispanic response change throughout the United States and among all federally recognized race/ethnic groups. We use internal U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 and 2010 censuses in which responses have been linked at the individual level (N = 162 million). Approximately 9.8 million people (6.1 %) in our data have a different race and/or Hispanic-origin response in 2010 than they did in 2000. Race response change was especially common among those reported as American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, Other Pacific Islander, in a multiple-race response group, or Hispanic. People reported as non-Hispanic white, black, or Asian in 2000 usually had the same response in 2010 (3 %, 6 %, and 9 % of responses changed, respectively). Hispanic/non-Hispanic ethnicity responses were also usually consistent (13 % and 1 %, respectively, changed). We found a variety of response change patterns, which we detail. In many race/Hispanic response groups, we see population churn in the form of large countervailing flows of response changes that are hidden in cross-sectional data. We find that response changes happen across ages, sexes, regions, and response modes, with interesting variation across racial/ethnic categories. Researchers should address the implications of race and Hispanic-origin response change when designing analyses and interpreting results.

Population dynamics, delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong, Ganges-Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions.

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges–Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.

On Tracking and Disaggregating Center Points of Population

In this article we explore methods for tracking and disaggregating five alternately defined mean and median center points of population, measures that can help in interpreting the forces underlying shifting settlement patterns. We argue that the point that minimizes the sum of squared great circle distances is more conceptually appealing than the center point located via the method currently employed by the U.S. Census Bureau. We also suggest that the point of minimum aggregate distance—as deployed in many other geographic applications—provides an interesting alternative to the median center historically used in population analysis, which is the crossing point of the medial lines of latitude and longitude. We then propose methods to disaggregate any of the alternatively defined center points into multiple points useful for tracking and comparing the relative influences of each of the components of population change: births, deaths, domestic (or internal) migration, and immigration. Similarly, we track and examine the shifting locations of the center points of various age, sex, and race or ethnicity groups. In a final section, we suggest that the increasing average and standard distances of individuals from the median and mean centers result from the increasingly bicoastal distribution of the U.S. population. As summary measures of all of the changes in population occurring anywhere across the nation's land area, centers of population provide an interesting conceptual platform for drilling into the variegated geographic patterns and disparate demographic forces that underlie a country's population distribution.

Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010

We describe a method for producing annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United Sates and components of population change, for each state and D.C., for 1990 to 2010. We quantify a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants arriving since 2000, and we demonstrate the role of departures from the population (emigration, adjustment to legal status, removal by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and deaths) in reducing population growth from one million in 2000 to population losses in 2008 and 2009. The number arriving in the U.S. peaked at more than one million in 1999 to 2001, and then declined rapidly through 2009. We provide evidence that population growth stopped after 2007 primarily because entries declined and not because emigration increased during the economic crisis. Our estimates of the total unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. and in the top ten states are comparable to those produced by DHS and the Pew Hispanic Center. For the remaining states and D.C., our data and methods produce estimates with smaller ranges of sampling error.

Population Trends and the ESRC Centre for Population Change ‐ working in partnership

Following the successful themed edition of Population Trends in September 2010, it is with great pleasure that I accepted the invitation to be guest editor of a second themed edition this year. It is however with great regret that I do so with the knowledge that this is the last ever edition of Population Trends. Throughout my career Population Trends has been a valuable source of information on the latest research being conducted both within ONS and academia and will be much missed. The first edition, published in Autumn 1975, contained just four very brief articles on the life table, infant mortality, births and patterns of family formation and international migration, together covering the three components of population change. Over the years, both the scope and content of articles within Population Trends expanded as it became recognised as one of the leading journals in its field. It is fitting that this final edition is bumper in both size and content, containing articles from researchers working within the ESRC Research Centre for Population Change, ONS and elsewhere in academia and covering a broad range of topics reflecting the diversity of contemporary demographic and population related research.

Population Change and Changing Educational Attainment of Ethnic Groups in the United States, 1980–2000

This study assesses the effect of population change on decade changes in the educational attainments of country of origin populations in the United States. Our data are derived from decennial censuses, NLMS, the World Bank, and INS. We find that changes in the share of country of origin populations with one or more years of post-secondary schooling are associated with selected components of population change during the 1980–1990 and 1990–2000 decades. The specific components include survivors during the decade, in-migration, and emigration of the foreign-born. Likewise, intra-generational mobility is found to be an important determinant of changes in educational attainment. The discussion addresses limitations of the data and suggests directions for future research as well as policy implications.

Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.

Measuring ecologically important quantities at relevant operational scales: An example using the dusky flycatcher in selectively logged forests in Idaho

Abstract Effective management of forest wildlife requires information about habitat features that can be altered by operations, if those habitat features promote reproductive success and survival, and if changes in organism density influence reproductive success and survival. Habitat selection studies often provide the first type of information, although relatively few studies examine how different selection decisions or densities of organisms influence fitness measures or measure habitat features at relevant operational scales. We examined patterns of habitat selection and estimated how habitat use, territory size, and conspecific density were associated with territory success (probability of a territory producing one or more fledglings) for the dusky flycatcher in 2002–2003 on eight study plots in managed grand fir ( Abies concolor ) forests in Idaho, USA. Flycatchers selected territories with greater cover of deciduous vegetation in two different height strata (1–2 and 3–4 m) and reduced cover of conifers less than 4 cm dbh compared to what was available. While flycatchers selected habitat characteristics at the territory scale, model selection results did not support any associations between vegetation features and territory success. Territory success had weak positive associations, for a given territory size, with conspecific density, although the relationship was highly variable. An interaction between territory size and density was not supported. These results are consistent with the view that avian breeding habitat selection occurs at multiple scales, and that the nest site scale may explain more of the variance in reproductive success than larger scales. Our results suggest that operational management of vegetation features, which often occurs at the stand scale, may not influence variation in critical demographic metrics. Increasing total shrub cover of commonly used plant species should benefit the dusky flycatcher, as well as other shrub-nesting forest birds, but stand-level habitat alterations alone cannot be relied upon to increase reproductive success, an important component of population change.

Estimating components of population change from census data for incongruent spatial/ temporal units and attributes

When calculating the components of population change over time, the spatial units of analysis must remain constant. However, the boundaries of these units often change from one census to the next Another limiting factor is the absence of data values for the time period. Net migration figures might be available for a five year interval in a census but not for a twenty year interval. GIS and areal interpolation are used here to rectify boundary changes that occur from one census to the next and shift‐share analysis is used to estimate the components of population change from the census data. These methods are applied to a county level study of population change in China between 1982 and 2000.

Law or Speculation?: A Debate on the Method of Forecasting Population Size in the 1920s

Abstract The interwar period witnessed the emergence, diffusion and international adoption of population forecasting in the form of the cohort-component projection methodology. The interaction of population structure by age and sex and age-sex specific rates of the components of population change, mortality, fertility and migration, was used to indicate the most likely future course of national populations. However, right from the beginning the demographic approach was challenged by a revival of the belief that the future course of population is governed by a law. The belief was based on the (re)discovery of a homeostatic model, the so called law of logistic population growth. The logistic approach to population forecasting was advocated by the American geneticist Raymond Pearl, who introduced it in the 1920s. It replaced the 19th century Malthusian law of geometrical population growth. The decade of the 1920s witnessed the confrontation of the “logistic law” and “demographic” approaches. This article discusses the background and context of the confrontation of the two approaches, the issues at stake and the outcome of the contest. The debate on the method of forecasting population was initially a debate between biology and demography. The controversy was played out in conferences, articles and books, on the sidelines of the field where the technical innovations were made. The cohort-component method was easily applied in planning. It provided detailed insights into the factors accounting for the dynamics of population, and yielded details on the future population by age and sex.