Complex Systems Perspective Research Articles

Complex systems perspective in assessing risks in artificial intelligence.

In this article, we identify challenges in the complex interaction between artificial intelligence (AI) systems and society. We argue that AI systems need to be studied in their socio-political context to be able to better appreciate a diverse set of potential outcomes that emerge from long-term feedback between technological development, inequalities and collective decision-making processes. This means that assessing the risks from the deployment of any specific technology presents unique challenges. We propose that risk assessments concerning AI systems should incorporate a complex systems perspective, with adequate models that can represent short- and long-term effects and feedback, along with an emphasis on increasing public engagement and participation in the process.This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

Navigating urban risks for sustainability: A comprehensive evaluation of urban vulnerability based on a pressure–sensitivity–resilience framework

Cities are important symbols of civilization in human society. The vulnerability to cities caused by human activities and natural disasters has become increasingly evident. How to reduce the vulnerability of cities is an important topic in the research of urban public safety and sustainable development. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation of urban vulnerability is conducted on the basis of the pressure–sensitivity–resilience framework from a complex systems perspective, integrating three subsystems—the resource–environment, economic, and social subsystems. On the basis of data from 18 cities in Sichuan Province, China, from 2006 to 2021, this study analyzes vulnerability in terms of its scores, spatial and temporal evolution, and obstacles. The results reveal that the overall vulnerability of the Sichuan Basin has shown a fluctuating downward trend over the past sixteen years, and the spatial distribution has evolved into a large “low-vulnerability” agglomeration. The obstacles affecting urban vulnerability are also changing dynamically and include factors such as the harmless treatment rate of household waste and industrial smoke dust emissions. Drawing from these insights, this study enables the identification and diagnosis of urban vulnerability and, further, provides city managers with tailored recommendations for crafting policies that aim to mitigate risks and promote sustainable development.

Bouncing back from life's perturbations: Formalizing psychological resilience from a complex systems perspective.

Experiencing stressful or traumatic events can lead to a range of responses, from mild disruptions to severe and persistent mental health issues. Understanding the various trajectories of response to adversity is crucial for developing effective interventions and support systems. Researchers have identified four commonly observed response trajectories to adversity, from which the resilient is the most common one. Resilience refers to the maintenance of healthy psychological functioning despite facing adversity. However, it remains an open question how to understand and anticipate resilience, due to its dynamic and multifactorial nature. This article presents a novel formalized framework to conceptualize resilience from a complex systems perspective. We use the network theory of psychopathology, which states that mental disorders are self-sustaining endpoints of direct symptom-symptom interactions organized in a network system. The internal structure of the network determines the most likely trajectory of symptom development. We introduce the resilience quadrant, which organizes the state of symptom networks on two domains: (1) healthy versus dysfunctional and (2) stable versus unstable. The quadrant captures the four commonly observed response trajectories to adversity along those dimensions: resilient trajectories in the face of adversity, as well as persistent symptoms despite treatment interventions. Subsequently, an empirical illustration, by means of a proof-of-principle, shows how simulated observations from four different network architectures lead to the four commonly observed responses to adversity. As such, we present a novel outlook on resilience by combining existing statistical symptom network models with simulation techniques. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Dimensions of Metaphor Meaning

For many years, scholars have been proposing generic or universal theories of metaphor, but metaphors turn out to be more complex than that. In this paper, we discuss cases that show that metaphor meanings and mappings are contextual. By contextual, we mean the interactions between multiple factors in different timescales. The cases we analyze to make our point come from our study of resistance to metaphors. When people resist metaphors, they tend to explain what meaning the metaphor has to them, thus we see naturally occurring evidence for metaphor’s dynamic and multidimensional meanings. Contrary to Lakoff’s claims, there can be no single source of meaning to metaphors. In a complex systems perspective, metaphor meaning is construed in the interactions between different factors, such as the background of the speakers and listeners, the grammatical form of the metaphor, the co-text, personality, other characteristics of the metaphor (aptness, familiarity, conventionality), the history of previous uses of the metaphor, etc. All these factors operate in a non-deterministic way. In this perspective, conceptual metaphors, acquired through experiences, are one source of constraint to meaning. People share similar meanings to the degree that they share similar experiences, knowledge, and biases.

Analysis of changes in river connectivity during the urbanization process: a case study of the southeastern plain of Yinzhou, China.

Affected by human activities, the naturally occurring river network in the southeastern plain of Yinzhou has gradually evolved into a natural-artificial composite water system, and changes in river connectivity due to changes in river network systems have caused water security problems, including urban flooding. To clarify the river connectivity change and its relationship with the urbanization process, this paper discusses an evaluation method for river connectivity based on complex networks and cellular automata (CA) from the perspective of complex systems, quantitatively analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics of the structural and functional river connectivity in the study area during the 1990s-2020s, and reveals the impact of river nodes and chains on the connectivity level under the disturbance of natural or human factors. The results contained the following revelations: ① River connectivity showed a decreasing trend in the initial and rapid development stages of urbanization from the 1990s to the 2010s and a limited increasing trend in the optimization and upgrading stages from the 2010s to the 2020s. ② River network degradation and ongoing connectivity decline are found in the northeastern part of the study area. The highest river connectivity exists in Dongqianhukaifaqu. ③ The number of river nodes and chains should be maintained at approximately 80% for normal river connectivity. The nodes of high degree in the inflow area are listed in the key protection areas. ④ Changes in river connectivity are significantly correlated with the urbanization process. Changes in the functional connectivity level affect the magnitude of a flood. This study provides a theoretical basis for river network connectivity improvement and flood prevention in plain areas.

Identifying precondition configurations of mathematics anxiety among middle school students in China: using NCA and QCA approaches.

Addressing mathematics anxiety is important to ensure that students achieve good academic performance and maintain their mental health during the critical middle school period. However, previous studies have focused on the separate effects of the preconditions for mathematics anxiety, ignoring the interaction of factors. Therefore, this study aims to identify the determinants of mathematics anxiety from the perspective of complex systems via necessary condition analysis (NCA) and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to identify configurations of preconditions of mathematics anxiety among middle school students. A total of 183 middle school students aged 16 to 19 years (M age = 17.47, SD = 0.89) in China participated in this cross-sectional study. The outcome variable of the study is mathematics anxiety, and the condition variables include mathematics grade, parental support, learning motivation, learning planning, and learning interest. The necessity condition analysis shows that not all the condition variables constitute the necessity condition of mathematics anxiety alone. Four paths for the influence of multiple condition variables on mathematics anxiety are identified via the configuration analysis. Notably, even students with high mathematics scores and learning interest still experience mathematics anxiety due to a lack of practical parental support and learning motivation. High levels of parental support can exacerbate the mathematics anxiety of students under two conditions: 1) a lack of learning motivation and learning plans, and 2) interest in learning but low mathematics scores and unclear learning plans. This study highlights the need to consider the comprehensive impact of mathematics anxiety, and the findings will help educators and researchers identify the different characteristics of mathematics anxiety in student populations.

Intellectual Capital, Board Diversity, and Firms’ Financial Performance: A Complex System Perspective

Intellectual Capital, Board Diversity, and Firms’ Financial Performance: A Complex System Perspective

Evaluating coupling coordination between urban smart performance and low-carbon level in China’s pilot cities with mixed methods

The construction models of smart cities and low-carbon cities are crucial for advancing global urbanization, enhancing urban governance, and addressing major urban challenges. Despite significant advancements in smart and low-carbon city research, a consensus on their coupling coordination remains elusive. This study employs mixed-method research, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses, to investigate the coupling coordination between urban smart performance (SCP) and low-carbon level (LCL) across 52 typical smart and low-carbon pilot cities in China. Independent evaluation models for SCP and LCL qualitatively assess the current state of smart and low-carbon city construction. Additionally, an Entropy–TOPSIS–Pearson correlation–Coupling coordination degree (ETPC) analysis model quantitatively examines their relationship. The results reveal that smart city initiatives in China significantly outperform low-carbon city development, with notable disparities in SCP and LCL between eastern, non-resource-based, and central cities versus western, resource-dependent, and peripheral cities. A strong positive correlation exists between urban SCP and overall LCL, with significant correlations in management, society, and economy, and moderate to weak correlations in environmental quality and culture. As SCP levels improve, the coupling coordination degree between the urban SCP and LCL systems also increases, driven primarily by economic, management, and societal factors. Conversely, the subsystems of low-carbon culture and environmental quality show poorer integration. Based on these findings, this study proposes an evaluation system for smart and low-carbon coupling coordination development, outlining pathways for future development from the perspective of urban complex systems.

Healthcare quality improvement: It's time to update the Donabedian approach with a complex systems perspective.

There is broad consensus that healthcare systems are complex systems, which as a result, face complex problems. From this perspective, quality of care can be conceptualised as an emergent outcome of the healthcare system, that is more than the sum of individual components of care (in terms of inputs and processes), and quality improvement as a complex systems problem. However, traditional approaches, such as Donabedian's structure/process/outcome framework, are rooted in a linear, reductionist perspective, that fails to recognise that quality of care is created in the context of complex healthcare systems, and the many interactions and uncertainties at play that shape quality of care and health outcomes. A paradigm shift is needed from a reductionist to a systems thinking approach if we are to better understand and improve quality of care. Such a shift begins with asking different research questions, situated within the system context, that focus on identifying how interventions may contribute to system improvement, as opposed to seeking to directly link interventions with quality of care outcomes. In contrast to traditional healthcare quality measures focusing on single components of the system in isolation, research needs to explicitly consider quality of care as an emergent system outcome and identify new indicators and methods of assessment that provide insight into how the healthcare system functions as an interconnected whole. It is an opportune moment to harness the energy of the international healthcare quality movement to drive the innovation needed in research and practice to adopt a systems thinking approach.

What is ‘Being There’? An ontology of the immersive experience

ABSTRACT Media allow individuals to feel 'whisked away' from their surroundings and absorbed into another world. Constructs such as immersion, presence, transportation, and flow have been used to delineate and describe this experience, but few efforts have been made to understand their conceptual overlap or shared and distinct underlying processes. Two studies were conducted to create a model of the immersive experience applicable across media technologies and contexts. First, a scoping review shows these constructs are deeply intertwined and often seen as precursors, subcomponents, or outcomes of one another. Second, re-examining the literature from a complex systems perspective, we identify three key processes: interactivity, boundary alteration, and motivation, as especially promising for developing an integrative ontology of the immersive experience.

Safe(r) Landing by Older People: A Matter of Complexity.

Maintaining balance is a complex motor problem that requires coordinated contributions from multiple biological systems. Aging inevitably lessens the fidelity of biological systems, which can result in an increased risk of falling and associated injuries. It is advantageous to land safely, but falls manifest in diverse ways, so different motor solutions are required to land safely. However, without considerable practice, it is difficult to recall the appropriate motor solution for a fall and then apply it effectively in the brief duration before hitting the ground. A complex systems perspective provides a lens through which to view the problem of safe(r)landing. It may be possible to use motor analogies to promote degeneracy within the perceptual motor system so that, regardless of the direction in which an older person falls, their body self-organizes to land with less likelihood of injury.

The Damage Process Monitoring in Structures with Quasi-Brittle behavior in the perspective of Complex System.

The damage process in structures with quasi-brittle behavior is characterized by typical phenomena such as Size effect sensibility, the interaction of micro-fissures, and the transition of the continuum to discontinuation throughout the so-called localization effect. Structures are generally built with concrete, rocks, ceramic, and composite structures. This type of material could be considered. There are many approaches to modeling the mechanical behavior of this type of Material/Structure, but our strategy of simulation, a version of the Discrete Element Model, is aligned with the perspective of Prof. Krajcinovic; from his point of view, the random nature of the material is a key aspect that must due to consider. To address this problem, the Acoustical Emission Technique (AET) could also be useful to characterize the damage process. The combination of the signal captured in a different place in the structure determines the spatial and temporal distribution of the events. During the damage process. With this information, it is possible to compute global parameters and their evolution during the damage process of the structure, which could be used as precursors to local or global damage. There are several global indexes, and to study their evolution, let us know when the structure will be close to global or local collapse. Let's consider that the failure of the structure could be seen as a phase transformation phenomenon. It is possible to understand this problem using the Renormalization Group Theory proposed by Wilson and the basic ideas of Anderson related to a Complex System. In this context, in the present work, we consider some applications related to the characterization of the Damage Process of Quasi-Brittle structures/materials carried out for our research group, searching for the link between these results and the ideas of Wilson and Anderson. Keywords: Acoustic Emission Techniques, Discrete element Method, Critical Phenomena.

Spatiotemporal organization of ant foraging from a complex systems perspective

We use complex systems science to explore the emergent behavioral patterns that typify eusocial species, using collective ant foraging as a paradigmatic example. Our particular aim is to provide a methodology to quantify how the collective orchestration of foraging provides functional advantages to ant colonies. For this, we combine (i) a purpose-built experimental arena replicating ant foraging across realistic spatial and temporal scales, and (ii) a set of analytical tools, grounded in information theory and spin-glass approaches, to explore the resulting data. This combined approach yields computational replicas of the colonies; these are high-dimensional models that store the experimental foraging patterns through a training process, and are then able to generate statistically similar patterns, in an analogous way to machine learning tools. These in silico models are then used to explore the colony performance under different resource availability scenarios. Our findings highlight how replicas of the colonies trained under constant and predictable experimental food conditions exhibit heightened foraging efficiencies, manifested in reduced times for food discovery and gathering, and accelerated transmission of information under similar conditions. However, these same replicas demonstrate a lack of resilience when faced with new foraging conditions. Conversely, replicas of colonies trained under fluctuating and uncertain food conditions reveal lower efficiencies at specific environments but increased resilience to shifts in food location.

How do behavioral public policy experts see the role of complex systems perspectives? An expert interview study.

Amidst the global momentum of behavioral insights (BI), there has been a shift from mostly nudge-based BI applications to systemic approaches. This is particularly pressing in public health, where interacting issues regularly produce unanticipated consequences. Regardless, little is known about adopting complex systems approaches in behavioral public policy. This study aims to capture current practices of international BI experts on the definition, application, drivers, and hindering factors in adopting complex systems approaches in public policy. Semi-structured individual expert interviews (n = 12) of international BI experts with extensive experience in educating, cooperating with, and/or advising public servants were analyzed with inductive content analysis. While the working definition of BI aligned with published definitions, experts varied in their descriptions of complex systems approaches and its significance for public policy, including socioecological aspects, systematic BI use across policy stages, recognizing intertwined behavior, and lack of ready-made solutions. They emphasized the importance of systems approaches, identifying drivers (e.g. need for a broader focus) and hindrances (e.g. pressure for quick results). Embracing complex systems in behavioral public policy provides a holistic perspective, extending beyond simple nudges, sometimes presumed as universally applicable. While complexity perspectives would align with policymakers' worldview, applications require more work to tailor to local situations and to evaluate. Recognizing that, given their distinct expertise content, BI expertise can be quite different from complex systems expertise. The field would benefit from clear descriptions and specialized training for effective integration and advocacy for these approaches.

A complex systems perspective on chronic aggression and self-injury: case study of a woman with mild intellectual disability and borderline personality disorder

BackgroundChallenging behaviors like aggression and self-injury are dangerous for clients and staff in residential care. These behaviors are not well understood and therefore often labeled as “complex”. Yet it remains vague what this supposed complexity entails at the individual level. This case-study used a three-step mixed-methods analytical strategy, inspired by complex systems theory. First, we construed a holistic summary of relevant factors in her daily life. Second, we described her challenging behavioral trajectory by identifying stable phases. Third, instability and extraordinary events in her environment were evaluated as potential change-inducing mechanisms between different phases.Case presentationA woman, living at a residential facility, diagnosed with mild intellectual disability and borderline personality disorder, who shows a chronic pattern of aggressive and self-injurious incidents. She used ecological momentary assessments to self-rate challenging behaviors daily for 560 days.ConclusionsA qualitative summary of caretaker records revealed many internal and environmental factors relevant to her daily life. Her clinician narrowed these down to 11 staff hypothesized risk- and protective factors, such as reliving trauma, experiencing pain, receiving medical care or compliments. Coercive measures increased the chance of challenging behavior the day after and psychological therapy sessions decreased the chance of self-injury the day after. The majority of contemporaneous and lagged associations between these 11 factors and self-reported challenging behaviors were non-significant, indicating that challenging behaviors are not governed by mono-causal if-then relations, speaking to its complex nature. Despite this complexity there were patterns in the temporal ordering of incidents. Aggression and self-injury occurred on respectively 13% and 50% of the 560 days. On this timeline 11 distinct stable phases were identified that alternated between four unique states: high levels of aggression and self-injury, average aggression and self-injury, low aggression and self-injury, and low aggression with high self-injury. Eight out of ten transitions between phases were triggered by extraordinary events in her environment, or preceded by increased fluctuations in her self-ratings, or a combination of these two. Desirable patterns emerged more often and were less easily malleable, indicating that when she experiences bad times, keeping in mind that better times lie ahead is hopeful and realistic.

Study on Resilience Governance Ability of Urban Communities Under the Interplay of "Pressure-structure-process-capacity"

In the era of VUCA, emergencies and public crises in the process of urban governance under the perspective of complex systems are constantly impacting the safety, stability and order of urban operation. As the nerve endings of the urban governance system, communities are the front line of guarding urban security, and it is urgent to pay attention to the theoretical and practical exploration of community resilience governance. This paper analyses the influencing factors of community resilience based on the practice samples of epidemic prevention and control in 23 communities in S city, using the grounded theory. Based on the theoretical framework of community resilience governance of "pressure-structure-process-capability", it is extracted that the community, under the role of "pressure brought by the epidemic", can be adjusted through the "structural adjustment of the governing body" and "whole process of governance", which are the most important factors of community resilience governance. It is extracted that the community can generate "community resilience capacity" under the pressure of "epidemic" through the "adjustment of the structure of governance body" and the "construction of the whole process of governance chain". On the one hand, this study is dedicated to the localisation of the integration of community resilience theory, and on the other hand, it contributes to the modernisation of community safety governance practices and capacity building.

Personality expression in body motion dynamics: An enactive, embodied, and complex systems perspective

We studied body motion dynamics and personality differences using complex systems methods. 105 adults (aged 18–33, 70% women) completed a 15-minute laboratory task covering three self-referencing topics (self-introduction, bodily perception/sensory life, socio-emotional life). Body motion dynamics were extracted from videos using a frame-by-frame differentiation method. Recurrence Quantification Analysis derived the measures of Determinism, Entropy, Laminarity, and Mean-Line. Multilevel models estimated personality (IPIP-NEO-120) and situational effects. Neuroticism predicted lower determinism and fluctuating dynamics in bodily perception and socioemotional life; less complexity and stability during socioemotional topics, and increased negative affect. Extraversion predicted regular/deterministic dynamics during bodily perception. Conscientiousness predicted lower determinism and increased variability. Agreeableness predicted lower post-task negative affect. Findings are discussed within embodied, enactive, complex systems, and personality frameworks.

Psychosocial interventions that target adult cancer survivors' reintegration into daily life after active cancer treatment: a scoping review.

This review explored psychosocial interventions targeting adult cancer survivors' reintegration following active cancer treatment. This included the types of interventions tested and the tools used to measure reintegration. Cancer survivors face lingering health issues following the completion of cancer treatment. Many cancer survivors still experience unmet psychosocial care needs despite receiving follow-up care. Further, many survivorship interventions do not specifically address outcomes important to survivors. A number of primary studies have identified reintegration as an outcome important to cancer survivors. Reintegration is a concept that focuses on returning to normal activities, routines, and social roles after cancer treatment; however, it is emerging and abstract. Studies involving adult cancer survivors (18 years or older at diagnosis) of any cancer type or stage were included in this review. Studies with psychosocial interventions targeted at reintegrating the person into daily life after cancer treatment were included. Interventions addressing clinical depression or anxiety, and interventions treating solely physical needs that were largely medically focused were excluded. A literature search was conducted in MEDLINE (Ovid), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), and Embase. Gray literature was searched using ProQuest Dissertations and Theses (ProQuest). Reference lists of included studies were searched. Studies were screened at the title/abstract and full-text levels, and 2 independent reviewers extracted data. Manuscripts in languages other than English were excluded due to feasibility (eg, cost, time of translations). Findings were summarized narratively and reported in tabular and diagrammatic format. The 3-step search strategy yielded 5617 citations. After duplicates were removed, the remaining 4378 citations were screened at the title and abstract level, then the remaining 306 citations were evaluated at the full-text level by 2 independent reviewers. Forty studies were included that evaluated psychosocial interventions among adult cancer survivors trying to reintegrate after active cancer treatment (qualitative n=23, mixed methods n=8, quantitative n=8, systematic review n=1). Included articles spanned 10 different countries/regions. Over half of all included articles (n=25) focused primarily on breast cancer survivors. Many studies (n=17) were conducted in primary care or community-based settings. The most common types of interventions were peer-support groups (n=14), follow-up education and support (n=14), exercise programs (n=6), and multidisciplinary/multicomponent programs (n=6). While the majority of included studies characterized the outcome qualitatively, 9 quantitative tools were also employed. This review identified 6 types of interventions to reintegrate survivors back into their daily lives following cancer treatment. An important thread across intervention types was a focus on personalization in the form of problem/goal identification. Given the number of qualitative studies, future research could include a qualitative systematic review and meta-aggregation. Quantitative tools may not be as effective for evaluating reintegration. More primary studies, including mixed methods studies, utilizing consistent measurement tools are required. Furthermore, this work provides a basis for future research to continue examining the complexity of implementing such interventions to successfully achieve reintegration. To do so, primary studies evaluating interventions from an implementation science and complex systems perspective would be useful. Open Science Framework https://osf.io/r6bmx.

Modeling the neurocognitive dynamics of language across the lifespan.

Healthy aging is associated with a heterogeneous decline across cognitive functions, typically observed between language comprehension and language production (LP). Examining resting-state fMRI and neuropsychological data from 628 healthy adults (age 18-88) from the CamCAN cohort, we performed state-of-the-art graph theoretical analysis to uncover the neural mechanisms underlying this variability. At the cognitive level, our findings suggest that LP is not an isolated function but is modulated throughout the lifespan by the extent of inter-cognitive synergy between semantic and domain-general processes. At the cerebral level, we show that default mode network (DMN) suppression coupled with fronto-parietal network (FPN) integration is the way for the brain to compensate for the effects of dedifferentiation at a minimal cost, efficiently mitigating the age-related decline in LP. Relatedly, reduced DMN suppression in midlife could compromise the ability to manage the cost of FPN integration. This may prompt older adults to adopt a more cost-efficient compensatory strategy that maintains global homeostasis at the expense of LP performances. Taken together, we propose that midlife represents a critical neurocognitive juncture that signifies the onset of LP decline, as older adults gradually lose control over semantic representations. We summarize our findings in a novel synergistic, economical, nonlinear, emergent, cognitive aging model, integrating connectomic and cognitive dimensions within a complex system perspective.

Modeling post-Pleistocene megafauna extinctions as complex social-ecological systems

Abstract The role of human hunting behavior versus climate change in the mass extinction of megafauna during the Late Quaternary is much debated. To move beyond monocausal arguments, we treat human–megafauna–environment relationships as social–ecological systems from a complex adaptive systems perspective, to create an agent-based model that tests how human hunting may interact with environmental stress and animal life history to affect the probability of extinction. Using the extinction of Syncerus antiquus in South Africa at 12–10 ka as a loose inspirational case study, we parameterized a set of experiments to identify cross-feedbacks among environmental dynamics, prey life history, and human hunting pressure that affect extinction probability in a non-linear way. An important anthropogenic boundary condition emerges when hunting strategies interrupt prey animal breeding cycles. This effect is amplified in patchy, highly seasonal environments to increase the chances of extinction. This modeling approach to human behavior and biodiversity loss helps us understand how these types of cross-feedback effects and boundary conditions emerge as system components interact and change. We argue that this approach can help translate archaeological data and insight about past extinction for use in understanding and combating the current mass extinction crisis.