Complex Socio-ecological Systems Research Articles

Small pelagic fish: new frontiers in ecological research

Populations of small pelagic fish (SPF), such as sardines, anchovies and herrings, support some of the largest marine fisheries globally and are critical for trophic transfer in large marine ecosystems and food security, particularly in low- to medium-income countries. Marked changes in population size, shifts in distribution on multiple time scales, and impacts on their populations from other pressures (e.g. overfishing, climate change) pose large challenges to sustainably manage these resources to avoid the serious socioeconomic and ecological impacts of population collapses. The ecology and management of SPF was discussed in an international symposium in Lisbon, Portugal, attracting participants from 38 countries and 6 continents. This Theme Section includes 18 research contributions examining SPF from 6 different ecological regions alongside 3 global analyses. These studies, including a wide range of topics from parasitology, behavior and trophodynamics to growth and spawning, provide important new knowledge that will improve science-based advice and tools needed for sustainable, ecosystem-based management of these resources. This symposium was an important milestone for a global working group and sowed the seeds for continued, globally coordinated research efforts on the role of SPF in complex socio-ecological systems.

Addressing uncertainty in Participatory Integrated Assessment: qualitative modeling approach for risk estimation

Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) has become a vital tool for decision-making for sustainable development, but it faces significant challenges due to the inherent uncertainty of socio-ecological systems. Uncertainty arises from multiple sources, such as incomplete data, knowledge gaps, and unpredictable events, which can lead to inadequate risk estimations and potentially undermine the effectiveness of environmental planning efforts. To address these challenges, this study proposes a qualitative modeling approach for risk estimation in PIA. The approach employs Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) to combine qualitative insights and information from stakeholders with available quantitative data. It allows for the exploration of alternative future states of the world and the identification of robust scenarios that promote sustainable development. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through the Ecological Ordinance of Yucatán, Mexico, a policy-making tool for multi-sectoral environmental planning. The study shows how qualitative DMDU can identify critical uncertainties and provide insights into regional management strategies. It also emphasizes the importance of stakeholder engagement and transparency in the decision-making process. Overall, this study presents a promising approach for addressing multiple forms of uncertainty in PIA and improving ecological risk estimation for decision-making in complex socio-ecological systems.

Development of a fuzzy logic-embedded system dynamics model to simulate complex socio-ecological systems

To respond to the growing challenges posed by adverse environmental impacts and climate change, there is an increasing need for multidisciplinary and comprehensive research to build sustainable socio-ecological systems (SES). System dynamics (SD) has been widely used as a methodology to meet these needs, but the common practice of oversimplifying or subjectively handling complex relationships among various factors often reduces the reliability of the model. Therefore, the objectives of this study were (1) to develop a methodology for integrating fuzzy logic into the SD model to handle relationships among multiple variables systematically and (2) to validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology through a case study on a simple SES. The developed methodology encompassed procedures for constructing fuzzy logic, including fuzzification, fuzzy inference, and optimization, on the SD platform. The usefulness of this methodology was tested with a fuzzy-SD model for a rice production system, wherein fuzzy logic was applied to capture variations in rice yield based on temperature conditions. As a result of optimizing the fuzzy-SD model, the rice yield inferred based on two types of temperature factors and eight fuzzy rules closely agreed with historical data (mean absolute percent error = 2.15 %). These results suggest that (1) the methodology proposed in this study can intuitively implement the fuzzy-SD model on the SD platform, and (2) utilizing inference through fuzzy logic can be valuable in minimizing errors within the SD model. Our findings can contribute to enhancing the reliability and utility of SD models for SES research by enabling reasonable inference regarding complex relationships among system components.

A spatial decision support system for multi-dimensional sustainability assessment of river basin districts: the case study of Sarno river, Italy

Effective management of the complex Socio-ecological systems (SES) of the river basin, influenced by a range of social, economic, and environmental variables, requires multi-purpose Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSSs) to identify and select balanced and sustainable regeneration scenarios. In many cases, the lack of cooperation between administrative institutions and the low level of participation of the stakeholders involved are the main obstacles to effective planning and regeneration practices and call for new forms of governance. However, to address these critical issues, few studies use quantitative approaches to assess the multidimensional resources of river basins in an integrated perspective in terms of their capacity to activate cooperation networks between river-crossed cities. This study aims to suggest a methodological approach combining Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Geographic Information Systems to achieve integration in pursuing sustainable regeneration pathways for a river basin district, analysing the case study of the Sarno River, composed of 20 administrative units, in Southern Italy. The specific purpose is to provide decision-makers with an SDSS to evaluate sustainability scenarios based on the multi-dimensional performances of River Basin District Units (RBDU). The results delivered four partial rankings of RBDU related to social, cultural, ecological, and economic scenarios and one overall ranking for an integrated sustainability scenario. Each ranking includes a clustering of municipalities according to three classes: Leader, Link and Follower. The outcome is twofold: to provide decision-makers with recommendations for supporting governance models based on sustainability pathways and to suggest valuable methods and tools for dealing with the spatial misfits, considered as the mismatch between the physical boundaries of a natural system and the management area of an organization.

Co-designing grounded visualisations of the Food-Water-Energy nexus to enable urban sustainability transformations

In the past few years, the Food-Water-Energy (FWE) Nexus has emerged as a key concept to address the complex relationships and interdependencies between food, water, and energy systems. Cities are an important context for understanding the FWE nexus given their significant footprints and complex socio-ecological systems, but researchers have only recently started to explore an explicit urban perspective on food, water, and energy interrelationships. This paper tackles a particularly significant knowledge gap in this context by introducing an approach to co-design visualisations of the FWE nexus that are understandable and actionable for the various stakeholders involved in urban governance such as citizens, communities, governments, non-governmental and private-sector organisations. Drawing on user-centred design and inspired by the dialogic pedagogy of Paulo Freire, we present and evaluate the co-design process of a FWE nexus visualisation tool for stakeholders engaged with pre-school education in Słupsk, Poland. Our results provide evidence that this co-design process has been effective to developing a new critical consciousness in the participants about how their everyday choices are related to the FWE nexus, enabling them to change perspectives, leading to more sustainable choices. We propose that our co-design process can be used to develop 'grounded visualisations' of the FWE nexus, i.e., visualisations that are grounded in the experiential situations and lived realities of stakeholders, thus offering an effective support for decision-making that could open pathways to sustainability transformations.

Scaling artificial light at night and disease vector interactions into socio-ecological systems: a conceptual appraisal.

There is burgeoning interest in how artificial light at night (ALAN) interacts with disease vectors, particularly mosquitoes. ALAN can alter mosquito behaviour and biting propensity, and so must alter disease transfer rates. However, most studies to date have been laboratory-based, and it remains unclear how ALAN modulates disease vector risk. Here, we identify five priorities to assess how artificial light can influence disease vectors in socio-ecological systems. These are to (i) clarify the mechanistic role of artificial light on mosquitoes, (ii) determine how ALAN interacts with other drivers of global change to influence vector disease dynamics across species, (iii) determine how ALAN interacts with other vector suppression strategies, (iv) measure and quantify the impact of ALAN at scales relevant for vectors, and (v) overcome the political and social barriers in implementing it as a novel vector suppression strategy. These priorities must be addressed to evaluate the costs and benefits of employing appropriate ALAN regimes in complex socio-ecological systems if it is to reduce disease burdens, especially in the developing world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Light pollution in complex ecological systems'.

Perceptions, trends and adaptation to climate change in Yala wetland, Kenya

Purpose Tropical wetland ecosystems are threatened by climate change but also play a key role in its mitigation and adaptation through management of land use and other drivers. Local-level assessments are needed to support evidence-based wetland management in the face of climate change. This study aims to examine the local communities’ knowledge and perception of climate change in Yala wetland, Kenya, and compare them with observed data on climate trends. Such comparisons are useful to inform context-specific climate change adaptation actions. Design/methodology/approach The study used a mixed methods approach that combined analysis of climate data with perceptions from the local community. Gridded data on temperature and rainfall for the period from 1981 to 2018 were compared with data on climate change perceptions from semi-structured questionnaires with 286 key informants and community members. Findings Majority of the respondents had observed changes in climate parameters – severe drought (88.5%), increased frequency of floods (86.0%) and irregular onset and termination of rains (90.9%) in the past 20 years. The perceptions corresponded with climate trends that showed a significant increasing trend in the short rains and the average maximum temperature, high incidence of very wet years and variability in onset and termination of rainfall between 1981 and 2018. Gender, age and education had little influence on knowledge and awareness of climate change, except for frequency of floods and self-reported understanding of climate change. The community perceived the wetland to be important for climate change adaptation, particularly the provision of resources such as grazing grounds during drought. Research limitations/implications The study faced challenges of low sample size, use of gridded climate data and reproducibility in other contexts. The results of this study apply to local communities in a tropical wetland in Western Kenya, which has a bi-modal pattern of rainfall. The sample of the study was regional and may therefore not be representative of the whole of Kenya, which has diverse socioeconomic and ecological contexts. Potential problems have been identified with the use of gridded data (for example, regional biases in models), although their usefulness in data scarce contexts is well established. Moreover, the sample size has been found to be a less important factor in research of highly complex socio-ecological systems where there is an attempt to bridge natural and social sciences. Practical implications This study addresses the paucity of studies on climate change trends in papyrus wetlands of sub-Saharan Africa and the role of local knowledge and perceptions in influencing the management of such wetlands. Perceptions largely influence local stakeholders’ decisions, and a study that compares perceptions vs “reality” provides evidence for engagement with the stakeholders in managing these highly vulnerable ecosystems. The study showed that the local community’s perceptions corresponded with the climate record and that adaptation measures are already ongoing in the area. Originality/value This study presents a case for the understanding of community perceptions and knowledge of climate change in a tropical wetland under threat from climate change and land use change, to inform management under a changing climate.

Navigating or adding to complexity? Exploring the role of catchment partnerships in collaborative governance

An enduring challenge for environmental governance is how to coordinate multiple actors to achieve more collaborative and holistic management of complex socio-ecological systems. Catchment partnerships are often thought able to achieve this, so here we ask: do such partnerships actually help navigate complexity, or merely add to it? We answer this question by analysing the experiences of four voluntary UK catchment partnerships. Our data combined a structured desk-based analysis of partnership documents, with semi-structured interviews with partnership coordinators, chairs and partner representatives. These data were analysed using a qualitative thematic approach informed by the literatures on catchment management and collaborative governance of complexity. We found that partnerships both add to and help navigate the complexity of holistic and inclusive environmental management. Maintaining partnerships entails costs for partners, and partnerships connect messily and multitudinously to other initiatives. However, the partnerships were all judged as worthwhile, and made progress towards goals for water quality, biodiversity and river restoration. They were especially valued for envisioning and initiating complex activities such as Natural Flood Management. Communication and networking by partnership coordinators and partners underpinned these achievements. Aspects of pre-existing governance systems both enabled and constrained the partnerships: in particular, statutory agencies responsible for policy delivery were always important partners, and delivering partnership plans often depended on public-sector grants. This draws attention to the pervasive effect of governmentality in collaborative governance. More attention to analysing—and supporting—such partnerships is worthwhile, complemented by reflection on the limits to environmental governance in the face of complexity.

The Butterfly Effect and its Implications for Resilience in Complex Socio-Ecological Systems

This study delves into the intriguing concept of the Butterfly Effect and its implications for resilience in complex socio-ecological systems. Drawing upon chaos theory, the Butterfly Effect posits that minute initial changes can yield substantial and unforeseen outcomes in dynamic systems. The research investigates how the Butterfly Effect influences the resilience of intricate systems, such as urban ecosystems, global supply chains, and social networks, when confronted with environmental, economic, or social disruptions. By scrutinizing case studies and employing mathematical modeling, this study seeks to unveil the nonlinear dynamics, tipping points, and feedback loops that amplify or mitigate the effects of minor perturbations in complex systems. Moreover, it explores how comprehending the Butterfly Effect can inform strategies for augmenting the resilience of socio-ecological systems, including adaptive management, scenario planning, and community engagement. The study also explores the ethical and governance considerations arising from the unpredictability and interconnectedness inherent in complex systems. It highlights the need for inclusive decision-making processes that account for diverse perspectives and values. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of adaptive governance approaches that allow for flexible responses to changing circumstances and evolving knowledge. By delving into the Butterfly Effect and its implications, this research endeavors to contribute to the development of strategies and policies that foster resilience in the face of uncertainty and promote sustainable development in complex socio-ecological systems. It recognizes the need for integrated approaches that consider the interdependencies and feedbacks between social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Ultimately, this study underscores the significance of understanding the Butterfly Effect as a lens through which to view and manage complex systems. By acknowledging the potential for cascading effects from minor changes, decision-makers and practitioners can adopt proactive measures to enhance system resilience. This research calls for further exploration of the Butterfly Effect across different scales and contexts to better grasp its implications and potential applications. In conclusion, the Butterfly Effect serves as a powerful concept for understanding the dynamics of complex socio-ecological systems. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by shedding light on its implications for resilience and providing guidance for decision-making and policy development in an uncertain and interconnected world.

Co-designing a multi-criteria approach to ranking hazards to and from Australia’s emerging offshore blue economy

A multi-sectoral assessment of risks can support the management and investment decisions necessary for emerging blue economy industries to succeed. Traditional risk assessment methods will be challenged when applied to the complex socio-ecological systems that characterise offshore environments, and when data available to support management are lacking. Therefore, there is a need for assessments that account for multiple sectors. Here we describe the development of an efficient method for an integrated hazard analysis that is a precursor to full risk assessments. Our approach combines diverse disciplinary expertise, expert elicitation and multi-criteria analysis to rank hazards, so it encompasses all types of hazards including human-caused, natural and technological. We demonstrate our approach for two sectors that are predicted to grow rapidly in Australia: offshore aquaculture and marine renewable energy. Experts ranked Climate Change as the hazard with the highest overall concern, but hazards including Altered Ecosystem Function, Biosecurity, Cumulative Effects, Structural Failure and Social Licence were also highly ranked. We show here how outputs from this approach (multi-criteria scores and ranks) could be used to identify hazards that; i) could be safely retired, ii) should be progressed to more quantitative risk assessments or iii) require ongoing information collection. The approach can encompass all types of hazards, which enables it to holistically consider priorities. The expert-based multi-criteria approach outlined here represents a pragmatic way to solve some of the challenges of applying risk assessments to emerging industries by using a method that can be applied across multiple blue economy sectors.

Landscape Characteristics in Relation to Ecosystem Services Supply: The Case of a Mediterranean Forest on the Island of Cyprus

The Mediterranean area is one of the most significantly altered biodiversity hotspots on the Earth’s surface; it has been intensively affected by anthropogenic activity for millennia, forming complex socioecological systems. In parallel, the long history of natural ecological processes and the deep interlinking with human populations led to landscape patterns, such as spatial heterogeneity, that facilitate the provision of essential ecosystem services (ESs). As such, a comprehensive understanding of the underlying factors that influence the supply of ESs is of paramount importance for effective forest management policies that ensure both ecological integrity and human welfare. This study aimed at identifying local specific interactions across three different spatial scales between landscape metrics and ESs using global and geographical random forest models. The findings showed that dense forest cover may have a positive effect on the supply of ESs, such as climate regulation and timber provision. Although landscape heterogeneity is considered among the main facilitators of ecosystem multifunctionality, this did not fully apply for the Marathasa region, as forest homogeneity seems to be linked with provision of multiple services. By assessing under which landscape conditions and characteristics forest ESs thrive, local stakeholders and managers can support effective forest management to ensure the co-occurrence of ESs and societal wellbeing.

Research advancements for impact chain based climate risk and vulnerability assessments

As the climate crisis continues to worsen, there is an increasing demand for scientific evidence from Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (CRVA). We present 12 methodological advancements to the Impact Chain-based CRVA (IC-based CRVA) framework, which combines participatory and data-driven approaches to identify and measure climate risks in complex socio-ecological systems. The advancements improve the framework along five axes, including the existing workflow, stakeholder engagement, uncertainty management, socio-economic scenario modeling, and transboundary climate risk examination. Eleven case studies were conducted and evaluated to produce these advancements. Our paper addresses two key research questions: (a) How can the IC-based CRVA framework be methodologically advanced to produce more accurate and insightful results? and (b) How effectively can the framework be applied in research and policy domains that it was not initially designed for? We propose methodological advancements to capture dynamics between risk factors, to resolve contradictory worldviews, and to maintain consistency between Impact Chains across policy scales. We suggest using scenario-planning techniques and integrating uncertainties via Probability Density Functions and Reverse Geometric Aggregation. Our research examines the applicability of IC-based CRVAs to address transboundary climate risks and integrating macro-economic models to reflect possible future socio-economic exposure. Our findings demonstrate that the modular structure of IC-based CRVA allows for the integration of various methodological advancements, and further advancements are possible to better assess complex climate risks and improve adaptation decision-making.

Robust sensitivity analysis to uncertainties in environmental and socio-economic scenarios: A perspective from a global socio-ecological system model

Uncertainties exist in modelling and simulating complex socio-ecological systems due to unknown, unmeasurable, and uncontrollable occurrence probabilities of future conditions, which are often expressed through multiple representative future scenarios. The sensitivities of uncertain scenario parameters that comprise these scenarios may be different under different scenarios. To largely reduce unnecessary efforts of refining insensitive parameters, it is helpful to identify scenario parameters that remain sensitive in all plausible future scenarios. Based on a well-established global socio-ecological system model—Functional Enviro-economic Linkages Integrated neXus (FeliX), this study conducted robust sensitivity analyses of the scenario parameters that defined five representative environmental and socio-economic scenarios. The study explored their sensitivities on eco-environmental carrying capacity represented by six planetary boundary (PB) indicators. A three-step method was proposed for these analyses. First, an uncertainty analysis was adopted to explore the impacts of uncertain scenario parameters on PB indicators in each scenario using the Latin hypercube sampling and nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis test. Second, a sensitivity analysis was utilized to quantify the global sensitivity of each parameter using the Extended Fourier Transform Sensitivity Test (eFAST). Third, we conducted a robust sensitivity analysis and identified 12 common sensitive parameters that remained sensitive under all five scenarios by combining the eFAST's results according to four decision criteria representing different decision preferences. This study provides a better understanding of the sensitivity of scenario parameters on PB indicators influenced by future uncertainties across five representative scenarios in a complex socio-ecological system modelled by FeliX. The findings make it easier to improve and apply FeliX or other socio-ecological system models by focusing on key parameters and understanding important linkages of sectors in socio-ecological systems.

Review on mangrove restoration: Re-greening the sea coast

Mangroves are important coastal resources that can provide exceptional ecosystem benefits. Several of its ecosystem functions, including sediment buildup, carbon sequestration, and storm surge protection, are being recognized as practical tools for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Its unique capacity to endure extreme environmental circumstances makes them; in particular, the only viable option for ecosystem-based adaptation in exposed coastal locations. Mangroves are among the most severely damaged tropical ecosystems, and they are continuing to disappear as a result of increased human activity. Especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where they exist in the form of complex socio-ecological systems, mangroves remain heavily threatened due to numerous anthropogenic activities. Mangroves are under grave danger; hence it is imperative that prompt steps be taken to methodically conserve and restore their ecosystems. The Asia-Pacific region is the location of nearly half of the existing mangroves, scattered over some of the poorest and post-conflict states. Dependence on traditional sources of income and the recent trend of coastal development have had a negative impact on the region's mangrove sustainability. Lacks of supportive policies and mangrove conversion to non-forest uses has been further fueled by insufficient institutional intervention. Nevertheless, in recent years, participatory, multi stake holder-based approaches for mangrove conservation and/or restoration have gained immense popularity in the region of Asia pacific. Participatory management which exemplifies an ameliorative approach can also support sustainable development, community empowerment, and social inclusion. Despite its asserted superiority, a number of new sustainability challenges need to be carefully examined and reconciled due to conflicting results of earlier experiences.

Meeting the challenges to climate change adaptation: an NGO community-based successful projects in Mauritius.

Climate change and anthropogenic pressure are among the main drivers of coastal environment degradation in Mauritius, a small island developing state. Globally, mitigation and adaptation strategies applied to the complex socio-ecological coastal systems offer effective solutions in curbing the adverse impacts. In environmental protection, Non-Governmental Organisations' (NGOs) role was first recognised in the 1992 UN Agenda 21 for Sustainable Development, and they are now integrated with most coastal environmental rehabilitation programmes. This paper describes two climate-based adaptation projects undertaken about a decade ago by an NGO in Mauritius. The projects were community-driven in all phases of implementation. The first project focussed on the Ecosystem-based-adaptation (EbA) approach of restoring a mangrove ecosystem and improving community life at Le Morne Village. The second project aimed at the rehabilitation of a historical site and the consolidation of a degraded coastline at Poudre d'Or Village. Components of 'hard' and 'soft' adaptive measures were applied as pathways to guide project implementation. The projects required extensive field visits, focus group interviews, and participatory inputs from all stakeholders. A 10-year assessment of the processes applied in the conceptualisation, implementation, and in evaluating the outcomes was gleaned from regular visits to local inhabitants, stakeholders, and NGO members since the completion of the projects. In 2022, an informal interview at Le Morne and a survey at Poudre d'Or showed that both projects resulted in positive outcomes. Good governance capacity and rigour in the management of the project team were highlighted as crucial attributes to the success of the projects.

Examining village characteristics for forest management using self- and geographic self-organizing maps: A case from the Baekdudaegan mountain range network in Korea

Understanding the village characteristics linked to forest networks is essential for the scientific management of forest resources. Forests are complex socio-ecological systems. This study classifies the resources and characteristics of forest networks and neighboring villages using unsupervised learning algorithms: self-organizing maps (SOM) and geographic-self-organizing maps (Geo-SOMs). Considering ecological, economic, and sociocultural indicators, 18 covariates of 379 villages in two forest networks of the Baekdudaegan Mountain Range in South Korea were analyzed. The data visualizing map size was fixed based on changes in quantization and topographic errors of the same grid maps, and the number of clusters was determined by comparing K-means and hierarchical clustering techniques. An optimal map size of 17 × 12 grids and six clusters was used for further classification of the input data for both SOM and Geo-SOM analyses. The common characteristics of villages were identified using SOM classification, whereas geographically bounded characteristics were identified using Geo-SOM. The approach introduced in this study can be applied to socio-ecological classification and the design of sustainable forest management policies that link the remote sensing and geographic information systems.

The Decision Theatre Triangle for societal challenges—An example case and research needs

Tackling societal challenges relating to sustainability requires both an understanding of the underlying complex socio-ecological systems and participation of scientists as well as relevant stakeholders, such as practice experts, decision makers, and citizens. This paper introduces the Decision Theatre Triangle, a method which combines empirical information, mathematical modelling and simulation, and a format for dialogue between scientists and stakeholders. While it builds on previous Decision Theatre work, the new structuring into these three elements emphasizes what is needed for setting up a Decision Theatre for a given challenge. Based on experience with a specific example – sustainable mobility in Germany – it is argued that agent-based models are particularly suitable for Decision Theatres and that the method is useful not only for decision support but also for science communication and co-creation of a deeper knowledge of the system under discussion. As a step towards facilitating a broader use of the Decision Theatre Triangle method, the paper then sketches research needs for each of its three elements, with a focus on mathematical modelling and simulation.

Actors and their roles for improving resilience of farming systems in Europe

Finding pathways to enhance the resilience of farming systems (FSs) in Europe is key, given the increasing challenges threatening them. FSs are complex socio-ecological systems in which social and ecological components are strongly linked. Social actors have the capacity to shape the FSs’ resilience, but there is a knowledge gap about how they can best do it. The aim of this paper is to analyse the roles played by the actors in FSs when dealing with challenges and assess how these roles may contribute to the resilience attributes (conditions that enable resilience) and resilience capacities (robustness, adaptability, and transformability). To this end, ten focus groups have been conducted across FSs in Europe. Results suggest that each actor in the FSs can shape and strengthen different resilience attributes which in turn result in combinations of resilience capacities that are specific to the FS. Thus, enabling resilience is best accomplished with actors taking different roles and jointly configuring the most adequate combination of capacities, which differs across FSs. This paper provides a set of resilience-enabling roles that delineate the pathways to make FSs more resilient. The diversity of actors and resilience-enabling pathways require flexible, coordinated and comprehensive policies that encompass the complexity of the socio-ecological systems.

Stakeholder perspectives on socio-economic challenges and recommendations for better management of the Aliwal Shoal Marine Protected Area in South Africa

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) regulate human behaviour within their boundaries to support long-term conservation of marine ecosystems and associated human benefits. As complex socio-ecological systems, the success of MPAs is fundamentally reliant upon community and stakeholder engagement, support, and compliance. Using the Aliwal Shoal MPA in South Africa as a case study, 48 stakeholder interviews were conducted to explore perceptions of existing challenges and potential solutions relating to management of the MPA. Analysis identified several challenges including: i) non-compliance with existing laws; ii) insufficient marine law enforcement; iii) national corruption; iv) poor physical infrastructure, and v) perceived racially biased MPA regulations. To address these challenges, interviewees highlighted the following potential solutions: i) development of awareness raising initiatives to foster marine stewardship and support for the MPA; ii) improving the visibility of marine conservation and MPA management activities; iii) investing finances generated by the Aliwal Shoal MPA regulations (such as diving permit fees) directly into MPA management; iv) identifying and enhancing local skills and knowledge that could contribute to enhancing conservation activities; and v) exploring innovative technical solutions that can improve community awareness and compliance with MPA regulations. While not representative of the entire spectrum of stakeholders, this paper provides useful insights that can be used by national MPA implementing agencies, local management bodies and conservation organisations as they try to improve engagement with local stakeholders to optimise social, economic, and ecological benefits, and contribute to improved governance. Additionally, the paper contributes to the global call for improved communication and engagement with stakeholders about MPAs, especially considering the increased emphasis placed on protected areas for global conservation.

Taxonomy of Objects for Sustainable Financing for Risk Management System Simulation

Introduction. The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine's economy should be carried out on the principles of sustainable development and include the implementation of "green" technologies in various sectors in order to rationally use available natural resources and reduce the harmful impact on the environment. There are already active discussions carried out among economists and financiers about how the existing financial system will facilitate the transition to a green economy and increase the mobilization of public and private resources for investments in projects on sustainable development. The Ukraine’s European integration aspirations encourage researchers to study the experience of the European Union in creating a unified pan-European system of classification of sustainable economic activities ("EU taxonomy") and adapt them to the national characteristics in order to direct green investments to those activities that are important for achieving the goals of the European Green Deal. The above actualizes the problem of effective use of "sustainable" financing mechanisms in the implementation of programs and projects for the recovery of the economy of Ukraine in the post-war period. The purpose of the article is to adapt the European experience to improve the taxonomy of objects of sustainable financing of reconstruction projects for national economy in the post-war period and to develop methodical approaches to risk management of investment projects of sustainable development using modern mathematical apparatus. Attained results. The principles and ESG-factors of sustainable financing are summarized; the prerequisites for evaluating of sustainable development investment projects are identified using the proposed system of measures, indicators and indices of sustainable development. A structural model of the ESG risks and credit risks interrelationships through the prism of the economic activity of sustainable investment subjects is proposed. The necessity of creating a digital platform for collecting and processing ESG data, based on which it is expedient to evaluate sustainable development investment projects in the system of "region-enterprise-industry" relationships, has been proved. A set of ESG risk assessment methods and models was formed and a decision tree was developed for the selection of sustainable development investment projects, taking into account the taxonomy of sustainable economic activity and regional development priorities in the post-war period using screening and scoring models. Conclusions. The application of the proposed principles, factors, indices and indicators of sustainable development allow to develop a new theoretical and methodological approach to assessing the risks of sustainable financing. The performed analysis of the screening and scoring procedures has justified a conclusion about the need of using the optimization theory for complex socio-ecological and economic systems together with various mathematical methods based on modern digital platforms in order to perform a comparative analysis of projects in the integrated system of "region-enterprise-industry" factors. This approach can justify the selection of attractive projects in terms of their financing that will contribute to the reduction of harmful effects on the environment, as well as to effective risk management during their implementation. Keywords: sustainable finance, taxonomy of sustainable investment objects, ESG-factors, ESG-data, screening and scoring of sustainable development investment projects.