Complex Social-ecological Systems Research Articles

A novel methodology for assessing resources and environmental carrying capacity with emphasis on ecosystem services: A multi-disciplinary approach to sustainable urban planning

Due to increased human activities, urban areas face challenges in maintaining their environment and natural resources in support of development. As a result, it is necessary to plan according to the availability of resources and the state of the environment to achieve sustainable development. For this purpose, Carrying capacity (CC) can be used to assess the sustainability of cities as complex Social-Ecological Systems (SES). By emphasizing Ecosystem Services (ESs) and regional thresholds, this paper proposes a novel methodology to evaluate Urban Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity (URECC). At first, an integrated simulation model is developed by combining an ecosystem services simulation model, a surface and ground water simulation model, a priority-based water allocating model, and a demands (i.e., water, food, and energy) estimation model. To evaluate URECC, various measurement indicators are developed and combined with a multi-stage decision-making (MSDM) method. Also, the decision-making sequences of management strategies and climate change scenarios are used to evaluate changes in the future. Based on the results, in the two base stages (2013–2016) and (2017–2020), without applying strategies, the average value of pressure-support, distance, and composite indices changed by +1.5%, −75.6%, and −66.7%, respectively, indicating a decrease in the CC. The future period (i.e., 2021–2040) was divided into four-year decision-making stages. According to the results, with the implementation of top sequences of strategies, the average values of pressure-support, distance, and composite indices would surpass those of maintaining the current trend by 49.4%, 123.5%, and 63.7%, respectively. In conclusion, management actions such as the development of semi-centralized and decentralized wastewater treatment networks, the simultaneous expansion of green space and built-up land, the implementation of artificial recharge, the improvement of irrigation efficiency, the management of urban water consumption, and the use of vegetation with low to medium water demands are effective for strengthening the URECC.

The stoic practice of sustainability leadership in complex social-ecological systems

The stoic practice of sustainability leadership in complex social-ecological systems

Looking back to shape the future: Trajectories and resilience of social-ecological systems in the Global South.

In complex Social-Ecological Systems (SES), the interplay between ecological and social components shapes trajectories that impact human well-being and ecosystem services. While SES dynamics have been studied in static conditions, there has been less attention to how said systems respond to shocks and stressors over time and space. This special issue presents a collection of articles that use diverse methodologies-ranging from system dynamics modeling to participatory approaches-to analyze past SES changes and discuss future scenarios. Case studies from regions including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Honduras, Chile, Ethiopia and Mongolia illustrate key variables influencing social-ecological transitions and provide insights into potential policy strategies to support sustainable SES. The studies underscore the need for multi-scalar approaches to SES research that explicitly theorize and empirically assess trajectories across space and time.

Conservation translocations in urban environments: State of the knowledge and future directions

Cities are important for biodiversity conservation and are a central focus in the United Nations Decade of Ecosystem Restoration. Species reintroductions and population reinforcements (i.e. conservation translocations) are an important component of conservation, yet are rare in urban environments, possibly because of perceived risks in highly modified and complex social-ecological urban systems. Here we review the literature describing urban conservation translocations to provide guidance for their effective implementation. We find that urban translocations have been performed for a variety of aims including focal species conservation, improvements in ecosystem functions in the later stages of restoration projects (e.g. seed dispersal in revegetated sites) and for site remediation (e.g. organic pollution removal), and enhancing human-nature connections. Conservation translocations were found in a range of urban habitat types including formal and informal greenspaces, grey spaces, streams, ponds, and marine environments, ranging from near-historic conditions (e.g. remnant/restored sites) to highly modified novel/designed systems. Barriers and enablers varied between terrestrial and aquatic release sites, with predators, habitat suitability, and leaving release sites being more important in terrestrial sites and disturbance (flooding) regime and pollution being more important in aquatic sites. A range of techniques have been applied to mitigate these barriers. Success rates in urban translocations are high (>90 %) and comparable to conservation translocations in general, suggesting they can contribute to urban biodiversity conservation by assisting species to overcome dispersal barriers and occupy otherwise suitable urban habitats. However, evaluation methods vary widely between urban translocation studies. There is also a need for longer-term monitoring of translocation success that might be achieved simultaneously while enhancing human-nature connections through citizen science programs.

Moving beyond simplistic representations of land use in conservation

AbstractLand use is both a major cause of the biodiversity crises and a potential solution to it. Decisions about land use are made in complex social–ecological systems, yet conservation research, policy, and practice often neglect the diverse and dynamic nature of land use. A deeper integration of land system science and conservation science provides major opportunities in this context, through a transfer of concepts, data, and methodologies. Specifically, a closer exchange between land‐use data developers and users will enable common terminology and better data use, allowing to move beyond coarse land‐cover representations of land use. Similarly, archetyping and regionalization approaches can help to embrace, rather than oversimplify, the diversity of land‐use actors and practices. Finally, systematically linking land‐use actors to portfolios of pressures on biodiversity, beyond their direct impact on habitat, can better represent and map co‐occurring and interacting threats. Together, this will enable conservation policymakers and planners to recognize the often‐complex and wicked nature of conservation challenges related to land, allowing for more context‐specific conservation policymaking and planning, and more targeted conservation interventions.

Exploring Trade-Offs and Synergies in Social–Ecological System Services across Ecological Engineering Impact Regions: Insights from South China Karst

Karst ecosystems have become complex social–ecological systems (SESs) as a result of the interventions of large-scale ecological restoration programs, and the ecosystem services (ESs) that provide regional well-being can, to some extent, be described as social–ecological system services (S–ESs). Understanding the relationships among multiple S–ESs and exploring their drivers are essential for effective ecological management in karst areas, especially in regions differently affected by ecological engineering programs. Taking South China Karst (SCK) as a study area, we first identified two regions as comparative boundaries, namely significant engineering impact regions (SEERs) and non-significant ecological engineering impact regions (NEERs). Then we used ES assessment models, Spearman correlation, and optimal parameter geographic detector to identify the supply capacity, trade-offs/synergies, and their drivers of six types of S–ESs in SEERs and NEERs. The findings included: (1) SEERs were predominantly concentrated in the central and southern SCK regions, accounting for 33.98% of the total SCK area, with the most concentrated distribution observed in Guizhou and Guangxi. (2) Within the entire SCK, six S–ESs maintained a relatively stable spatial distribution pattern over time, with the most pronounced increase in soil conservation and a slight decrease in water retention, and the S–ES hotspots were more concentrated within the SEERs. (3) Most S–ES pairs within SEERs were optimized synergistically, with lower trade-off intensity and higher synergy intensity compared to NEERs. (4) S–ES pairs were affected by the interactions between the natural and socio-economic factors, with land use changes playing a crucial role, and natural factors were difficult to predict but cannot be ignored. Based on the results, we propose different SES sustainable development suggestions, with a view to providing theoretical support for the optimization of SES functions and the consolidating of integrated ecological construction.

Exploring the multifunctional landscapes model in areas dominated by non-native tree plantations

Multifunctional landscapes offer an integrated approach to production, conservation, and human well-being. However, the challenges of implementing them in territories where plantations dominate are yet not well understood. This is the case in Chile, where plantations of non-native pines and eucalypts are extensively planted in its South-Central regions for timber and pulp. The resulting landscape homogenization, environmental degradation, and increased wildfire risk have caused and exacerbated conflicts, impacting biodiversity and the well-being of local communities and the Indigenous Mapuche Peoples.After the mega-wildfires in the region in 2023, science-policy discourse promoted the multifunctional landscapes model as a way to increase resilience. But what does this multifunctionality mean in challenging social-ecological contexts? Here, we aim to explore and deconstruct the multifunctional landscapes model in the context of the complex social-ecological systems of South-Central Chile. In this study, a review of the literature and semi-structured interviews with regional experts were used to better understand the challenges and opportunities presented by multifunctional landscapes.The results show a need to deepen the knowledge of how to move the model into practice, such as how to identify and decide compatible activities in the landscape. The thematic analysis of the interviews showed that restoration and water security are shared goals across the diverse actors in South-Central Chile. However, there were significant differences in knowledge, experiences and resources. While a number of landscape initiatives exist in the region, significant work is needed to build a common vision before the potential of multifunctional landscapes can be realized.

Panarchy to explore land use: a historical case study from the Peruvian Amazon

The overexploitation of natural resources is an important driver of the global environmental crisis. The scientific community engages in an ongoing debate about the most suitable frameworks for analyzing trends in land use. In this paper, we use the conceptual lens of the adaptive cycle and panarchy to explore complex social–ecological dynamics in the Peruvian Amazon. Through an extensive literature review and interviews with key informants, we provide a historical analysis of extractive activities over the last two centuries in the department of Madre de Dios, Peru. We identify periods of growth, conservation, and sometimes release and reorganization for each resource and for the overall social–ecological system. We identify a general trend toward more diversification in extractive activities over time and inter-scale linkages between adaptive cycles of different time and space scales. Based on these results, we explore future development, hypothesize a possible domination of the agricultural sector, and suggest that land-use policies and management interventions should draw from past lessons to design adaptive land planning. Finally, we present new evidence highlighting the relevance of panarchy for understanding historical changes in complex social–ecological systems and demonstrate its utility in exploring both past land use and future development.

The challenges of navigating different spaces and contexts in collaborative doctoral research in sport coaching

ABSTRACT In this paper, we analyse our experiences as both researchers and supervisors while collaborating with national governing bodies (NGBs) on jointly funded doctoral sport coaching research projects. We share our collective accounts of undertaking applied coaching research. Composite narratives reveal our ambitions for authentic collaboration; the vulnerabilities of the researcher; and the importance of empathy. Using Bronfenbrenner’s theory, we explore how researcher-practitioner PhDs involve movement between complex social-ecological systems. In doing so, we seek to support neophyte researchers and supervisors engaged in collaborative research partnerships. Contributions may also support NGBs and funders who are seeking high quality and contextually situated coaching research.

An integrated hierarchical classification and machine learning approach for mapping land use and land cover in complex social-ecological systems

Mapping land use and land cover (LULC) using remote sensing is fundamental to environmental monitoring, spatial planning and characterising drivers of change in landscapes. We develop a new, general and versatile approach for mapping LULC in landscapes with relatively gradual transition between LULC categories such as African savannas. The approach integrates a well-tested hierarchical classification system with the computationally efficient random forest (RF) classifier and produces detailed, accurate and consistent classification of structural vegetation heterogeneity and density and anthropogenic land use. We use Landsat 8 OLI imagery to illustrate this approach for the Extended Greater Masai Mara Ecosystem (EGMME) in southwestern Kenya. We stratified the landscape into eight relatively homogeneous zones, systematically inspected the imagery and randomly allocated 1,697 training sites, 556 of which were ground-truthed, proportionately to the area of each zone. We directly assessed the accuracy of the visually classified image. Accuracy was high and averaged 88.1% (80.5%–91.7%) across all the zones and 89.1% (50%–100%) across all the classes. We applied the RF classifier to randomly selected samples from the original training dataset, separately for each zone and the EGMME. We evaluated the overall and class-specific accuracy and computational efficiency using the Out-of-Bag (OOB) error. Overall accuracy (79.3%–97.4%) varied across zones but was higher whereas the class-specific accuracy (25.4%–98.1%) was lower than that for the EGMME (80.2%). The hierarchical classifier identified 35 LULC classes which we aggregated into 18 intermediate mosaics and further into five more general categories. The open grassed shrubland (21.8%), sparse shrubbed grassland (10.4%) and small-scale cultivation (13.3%) dominated at the detailed level, grassed shrubland (31.9%) and shrubbed grassland (28.9%) at the intermediate level, and grassland (35.7%), shrubland (35.3%) and woodland (12.5%) at the general level. Our granular LULC map for the EGMME is sufficiently accurate for important practical purposes such as land use spatial planning, habitat suitability assessment and temporal change detection. The extensive ground-truthing data, sample site photos and classified maps can contribute to wider validation efforts at regional to global scales.

Modeling post-Pleistocene megafauna extinctions as complex social-ecological systems

Abstract The role of human hunting behavior versus climate change in the mass extinction of megafauna during the Late Quaternary is much debated. To move beyond monocausal arguments, we treat human–megafauna–environment relationships as social–ecological systems from a complex adaptive systems perspective, to create an agent-based model that tests how human hunting may interact with environmental stress and animal life history to affect the probability of extinction. Using the extinction of Syncerus antiquus in South Africa at 12–10 ka as a loose inspirational case study, we parameterized a set of experiments to identify cross-feedbacks among environmental dynamics, prey life history, and human hunting pressure that affect extinction probability in a non-linear way. An important anthropogenic boundary condition emerges when hunting strategies interrupt prey animal breeding cycles. This effect is amplified in patchy, highly seasonal environments to increase the chances of extinction. This modeling approach to human behavior and biodiversity loss helps us understand how these types of cross-feedback effects and boundary conditions emerge as system components interact and change. We argue that this approach can help translate archaeological data and insight about past extinction for use in understanding and combating the current mass extinction crisis.

Towards reusable building blocks for agent-based modelling and theory development

Despite the increasing use of standards for documenting and testing agent-based models (ABMs) and sharing of open access code, most ABMs are still developed from scratch. This is not only inefficient, but also leads to ad hoc and often inconsistent implementations of the same theories in computational code and delays progress in the exploration of the functioning of complex social-ecological systems (SES). We argue that reusable building blocks (RBBs) known from professional software development can mitigate these issues. An RBB is a submodel that represents a particular mechanism or process that is relevant across many ABMs in an application domain, such as plant competition in vegetation models, or reinforcement learning in a behavioural model. RBBs need to be distinguished from modules, which represent entire subsystems and include more than one mechanism and process. While linking modules faces the same challenges as integrating different models in general, RBBs are “atomic” enough to be more easily re-used in different contexts. We describe and provide examples from different domains for how and why building blocks are used in software development, and the benefits of doing so for the ABM community and to individual modellers. We propose a template to guide the development and publication of RBBs and provide example RBBs that use this template. Most importantly, we propose and initiate a strategy for community-based development, sharing and use of RBBs. Individual modellers can have a much greater impact in their field with an RBB than with a single paper, while the community will benefit from increased coherence, facilitating the development of theory for both the behaviour of agents and the systems they form. We invite peers to upload and share their RBBs via our website - preferably referenced by a DOI (digital object identifier obtained e.g. via Zenodo). After a critical mass of candidate RBBs has accumulated, feedback and discussion can take place and both the template and the scope of the envisioned platform can be improved.

Disentangling the complexity of human–nature interactions

Abstract Human–nature interactions have been identified as an important leverage point for achieving sustainability. Processes to recognize, protect, improve and reimagine human–nature interactions will be central to shift the world to more sustainable and equitable pathways and futures. In the context of the interconnected and rapidly changing Anthropocene, work on human–nature interactions must move beyond dominant linear assumptions of a relatively simple and easily and predictably manipulated world to acknowledge and engage with the complex, dynamic, asymmetrical and unequal nature of the interactions connecting people and nature. Based on three key features highlighted by the study of complex social–ecological systems (SES)—that these systems are relational, open and dynamic—we propose three new directions for the study and management of human–nature interactions that can help to acknowledge and disentangle the globally intertwined and dynamic nature of these interactions. These features suggest new directions and foci for sustainability science: the inseparable and relational qualities of the interactions between people and nature; the cross‐scale nature of these relationships; and the continuously evolving and changing form of these relationships. To bridge the gap between the theory of complex, inseparable and unequal human–nature interactions and the reductionist tendencies in research and practice, SES research raises opportunities to connect local action and global learning; to mobilize and develop new cross‐scale and relational capacities to encourage synergies and avoid trade‐offs; and to explore, experiment and learn our way forward onto more sustainable and equitable pathways. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Interrelated transformative process dynamics in the face of resource nexus challenges: an invitation towards cross case analysis

ABSTRACT The need for more attention to the social and human dimensions in global change sciences and natural resources management requires in-depth understandings of transformative approaches and processes. More inclusive and systemic approaches are needed that embrace complexity and support transformative learning, shifts in power relations, collective and relational agency and structural transformations for adaptive and innovative governance. Scientific understanding of how such change can be brought about is still limited. In this paper, which sets the scene for this Special Issue, we develop a conceptual framework for analyzing transformative processes across a range of diverse cases. Aspects of the conceptual framework are applied, tested and elaborated in three following papers in the Special Issue, deepening understanding of how transformative change in complex social-ecological systems may originate at nexus boundary zones such as that portrayed by the water-food-energy nexus. Specifically, the paper conceptually elaborates four iteratively related dynamics of transformative learning, transforming power relations, transformative agency and transforming structures which intersect in transformation processes. The perspectives offer tools for cross case analysis in the longer term, but also tools for supporting co-engaged, generative research processes.

Moving beyond fish: working towards integrating human dimensions into sustainable seafood guides from South African perspectives

Traditionally, seafood assessments and subsequent ratings have guided choice and responsible sourcing of sustainable seafood based primarily on environmental concerns, with limited to no consideration to multi-faceted human dimensions that form an integral part of these complex social-ecological systems. For wild-capture marine fisheries around the world, and particularly in developing countries, human dimensions remain underrepresented in sustainability ratings, where the focus has traditionally been on larger, data-rich commercial fishery components that report predominantly on ecological and management considerations. Yet, addressing the diverse and complex nature of marine social-ecological systems remains critical to achieve global sustainable seafood systems that balance ecological and societal needs to benefit both nature and people. This paper champions the integration of human elements into seafood sustainability guides, building on work reviewing how best to integrate human dimensions into traditional seafood assessments under the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) – drawing on examples from South Africa. While the paper does not prescribe a blueprint for implementation, this review highlights challenges and opportunities to include human rights violations and small-scale fisheries in existing sustainable seafood guides from a South African perspective. There is a need for sustainability considerations to move beyond fish to better represent how these social-ecological systems feed into oceanic cultural norms and nutrition. This translates to shifting from an ecological focus to include human dimensions to better represent complex marine social-ecological systems and drive equitable change within local and global seafood industries.

Tipping Points of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit

Global services like navigation, communication, and Earth observation have increased dramatically in the 21st century due to advances in outer space industries. But as orbits become increasingly crowded with both satellites and inevitable space debris pollution, continued operations become endangered by the heightened risks of debris collisions in orbit. Kessler Syndrome is the term for when a critical threshold of orbiting debris triggers a runaway positive feedback loop of debris collisions, creating debris congestion that can render orbits unusable. As this potential tipping point becomes more widely recognized, there have been renewed calls for debris mitigation and removal. Here, we combine complex systems and social-ecological systems approaches to study how these efforts may affect space debris accumulation and the likelihood of reaching Kessler Syndrome. Specifically, we model how debris levels are affected by future launch rates, cleanup activities, and collisions between extant debris. We contextualize and interpret our dynamic model within a discussion of existing space debris governance and other social, economic, and geopolitical factors that may influence effective collective management of the orbital commons. In line with previous studies, our model finds that debris congestion may be reached in less than 200 years, though a holistic management strategy combining removal and mitigation actions can avoid such outcomes while continuing space activities. Moreover, although active debris removal may be particularly effective, the current lack of market and governance support may impede its implementation. Research into these critical dynamics and the multi-faceted variables that influence debris outcomes can support policymakers in curating impactful governance strategies and realistic transition pathways to sustaining debris-free orbits. Overall, our study is useful for communicating about space debris sustainability in policy and education settings by providing an exploration of policy portfolio options supported by a simple and clear social-ecological modeling approach.

A One Health perspective on recreational fisheries

Recreational fisheries involve an intimate connection between people, individual fish, and the environment. Recreational fishers and their health crucially depend on healthy fish and ecosystems. Similarly, fish and ecosystems can be impacted by the activities of people including recreational fishers. Thus, amplified by the global interest in recreational fishing, we posit that recreational fishing is particularly suited as an empirical system to explore a One Health perspective, with a goal of creating pathways to better manage such socio-ecological systems for the benefit of people, fish, and the environment. Although zoonoses are uncommon in fishes, fish can carry pathogens, biotoxins, or contaminants that are harmful to people. When captured and released, fish can experience stress and injuries that may promote pathogen development. Similarly, when humans contribute to environmental degradation, not only are fish impacted but so are the humans that depend on them for nutrition, livelihoods, culture, and well-being. Failure to embrace the One Health perspective for recreational fisheries has the potential to negatively impact the health of fish, fisheries, people, society, and the aquatic environment—especially important since these complex social–ecological systems are undergoing rapid change.

Exploring transformative processes at the intersections of land, water and livelihoods: a case study from the Tsitsa Project, South Africa

ABSTRACT The Tsitsa River catchment is a complex social-ecological system (cSES) in a rural area of the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa and the site of the Tsitsa Project (TP); a multi-stakeholder, transdisciplinary landscape restoration project aiming to improve sustainable livelihoods and ecological infrastructure. We investigated transformation mechanisms in a framing of multidimensional linkages, including the recognition of differentiated scales and levels. Linkages were analysed through the development of two vignettes: 1) a citizen technician employed to monitor sediment loads in rivers to inform landscape restoration activities (local scale); and 2) a senior government official responsible for (regional scale) operational and on-the-ground restoration initiatives. Vignette data were generated during a workshop, from TP researcher reflexivity, and interviews with the TP Catchment Coordinator and vignette subjects. Data were analysed and presented: i) as a heuristic diagram, ii) through a narrative, and iii) as a matrix table. Each analysis incorporated a different conceptualisation of scale in relation to four social processes related to transformative change: learning, agency, power and structure. Transformation is demonstrated and leverage points and areas of intractability for promoting and constraining future transformation towards social-ecological sustainability, were identified respectively. Further, we suggest that an understanding of transformative processes was enriched and nuanced by combining a triad of complementary analytical exercises. These allowed a focus on unique stories and contexts, but also the identification of generalisable patterns and mechanisms.

Collaborative Modeling of the Tick-Borne Disease Social-Ecological System: A Conceptual Framework.

Hard-bodied ticks have become a major concern in temperate regions because they transmit a variety of pathogens of medical significance. Ticks and pathogens interact with hosts in a complex social-ecological system (SES) that influences human exposure to tick-borne diseases (TBD). We argue that addressing the urgent public health threat posed by TBD requires an understanding of the integrated processes in the forest ecosystem that influence tick density and infection prevalence, transmission among ticks, animal hosts, and ultimately disease prevalence in humans. We argue that collaborative modeling of the human-tick SES is required to understand the system dynamics as well as move science toward policy action. Recent studies in human health have shown the importance of stakeholder participation in understanding the factors that contribute to human exposure to zoonotic diseases. We discuss how collaborative modeling can be applied to understand the impacts of forest management practices on ticks and TBD. We discuss the potential of collaborative modeling for encouraging participation of diverse stakeholders in discussing the implications of managing forest ticks in the absence of large-scale control policy.

Beyond a ‘just add water’ perspective: environmental water management for vegetation outcomes

Practitioners of environmental water management (EWM) operate within complex social-ecological systems. We sought to better understand this complexity by investigating the management of environmental water for vegetation outcomes. We conducted an online survey to determine practitioners’ perspectives on EWM for non-woody vegetation (NWV) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia with regards to: i) desirable outcomes and benefits; ii) influencing factors and risks; iii) challenges of monitoring and evaluation, and iv) improving outcomes.Survey participants indicated that EWM aims to achieve outcomes by improving or maintaining vegetation attributes and the functions and values these provide. Our study reveals that EWM practitioners perceive NWV management in a holistic and highly interconnected way. Numerous influencing factors as well as risks and challenges to achieving outcomes were identified by participants, including many unrelated to water.Survey responses highlighted six areas to improve EWM for NWV outcomes: (1) flow regimes, (2) vegetation attributes, (3) non-flow drivers, (4) management-governance considerations, (5) functions and values, and (6) monitoring, evaluation and research. These suggest a need for more than ‘just water’ when it comes to the restoration and management of NWV. Our findings indicate more integrated land-water governance and management is urgently required to address the impacts of non-flow drivers such as pest species, land-use change and climate change. The results also indicate that inherent complexity in EWM for ecological outcomes has been poorly addressed, with a need to tackle social-ecological constraints to improve EWM outcomes.