Complex Economic Phenomena Research Articles

The role of mathematics in economics: From theoretical deepening to empirical analysis

This paper discusses the application of mathematics in economics and its importance to the subject’s progress. With the increasing application of simplified mathematical methods in economic research and the rising trend of empirical research, the degree of dependence of economics on mathematical analysis has decreased. However, relying on advanced mathematical tools to comprehensively understand and accurately model complex economic phenomena. This tendency to “de-mathematize” can lead to incomplete or misleading conclusions that undermine the credibility and effectiveness of the field. The article points out that the relationship between mathematics and economic theory is complementary rather than antagonistic. Complex theories must be translated into practical insights to bridge the gap between academic discussion and policy practice. Therefore, economists should devote themselves to using mathematical tools to promote the development of economic thought. By improving their mathematical skills, economists can gain a deeper understanding of economic theory, enhance its explanatory and predictive power, and make economics a more robust scientific system. In the future, the application of mathematics in economics will not only be a tool for academic research but also an important force to promote the development of economic theory and practical policy making. This paper further explores the future application prospects of mathematics in economics and its challenges in providing new ideas and directions for economic researchers.

Navigating the confluence of econometrics and data science: Implications for economic analysis and policy

This paper explores the transformative integration of econometrics and data science, a synergy poised to redefine empirical research within economics. By merging traditional econometric methods with advanced data science techniques, such as machine learning algorithms and big data analytics, this interdisciplinary approach enables a deeper, more nuanced understanding of complex economic phenomena. We delve into the theoretical foundations underlying this integration, highlighting how machine learning algorithms like random forests and neural networks complement conventional regression analysis, thereby enhancing model complexity and predictive accuracy. The paper further discusses methodological advancements, including handling high-dimensional data, incorporating unstructured data through natural language processing, and the evolution of model selection processes empowered by machine learning. Practical applications are thoroughly examined across three pivotal areas: economic forecasting and policy analysis, financial markets and risk management, and social economic analysis and public policy, showcasing the significant contributions of this convergence to economic forecasting, policy formulation, and the assessment of public interventions. This comprehensive exploration underscores the potential of combining econometrics and data science to offer more precise and actionable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners in the field of economics.

FEATURES OF MANAGEMENT OF MARKETING ACTIVITIES OF ENTERPRISES IN TOURISM: INVARIANT APPROACH

It is investigated that the tourism industry is an integral part of the national and world market and is considered as a promising direction of development in the world. This industry ranks second in the world economy after the computer and electronics industries. It is proved that the tourism industry is ahead of such industries as oil refining and automotive. The development of tourism became possible due to the scientific and technological progress of society and the introduction of a system of marketing management of tourism enterprises, that is, the creation of a market infrastructure. It is substantiated that management of marketing activities of tourist enterprises requires constant analysis of market trends, creativity in developing strategies and flexibility in responding to changing market conditions. Marketing and the marketing system are such basic phenomena that they cannot be considered as a separate function of business. It is investigated that success in business is determined not so much by the product that it offers as by its consumers. All definitions hide three aspects of the concept of marketing: the active aspect - market penetration; analytical aspect - understanding of markets; ideological aspect - way of thinking. Most often, one can observe trends in the decline of the concept of marketing to its active dimension, that is, to a series of sales techniques, and an extreme underestimation of its analytical aspect. It is analysed that in modern conditions of management the effective development of enterprises of the tourism industry of Ukraine is complicated by martial law, difficult economic and political situation; increased competition due to the lack of a proper system for coordinating the activities of the enterprise. In this situation, a significant interest for domestic enterprises of the industry is a modern marketing concept, the introduction of marketing measures in the management of enterprises, advanced methods of marketing influence on the formation of market demand, the competitive position of the tourist enterprise. It is proved that effective management of marketing activities of enterprises in the field of tourism is a rather complex economic, organizational and social phenomenon. This management requires a long process of activity, which should take into account the possible change in the state of the object of control, the emergence of the latest laws, principles and methods. The system of management of marketing activities of tourist enterprises includes knowledge, skills, abilities, information and human technologies of business communication of actual and potential consumers of the tourist product and managers of the enterprise

Statistical Analysis of Inflationary Processes’ Impact on Economic Development: Trends, Mechanisms and Models

"In the current environment of global economic instability and growing competition, statistical analysis plays a key role in forecasting complex economic phenomena. The inflationary process is one of the crucial aspects that determine the economic situation in a country. Inflation, as a complex phenomenon, has a significant impact on pricing and financial stability. The analysis of the scientific literature shows a growing interest in studying the impact of inflationary processes on economic development. The research in this area reveals various aspects of the interaction between inflation and key economic indicators such as production, employment, and investments. The research findings systematize information on the mechanisms and models underlying the interaction between inflation and economic growth. They contribute to the formulation of strategies for managing financial stability. While writing this article, the authors analyzed the dynamics of the inflation rate in Ukraine over the past ten years. The analysis aims to reveal various factors that affect inflationary processes and their impact on multiple aspects of the economic system. The dynamics of inflation, as well as models that help to forecast economic changes, were determined through the prism of statistical analysis. The study of inflation statistical indicators in the context of economic development aims to broaden the understanding of this phenomenon. It also helps to provide grounds for further research and effective management of the country’s economy. The authors analyze the impact of inflation on economic development, reveal the factors that lead to price fluctuations and unemployment, and discuss the importance of statistical analysis for understanding and managing economic phenomena."

МЕТОДИ ТА МОДЕЛІ DATA SCIENCE В СУЧАСНІЙ ЕКОНОМІЦІ

In contemporary economics, data science models play a crucial role in analyzing complex relationships, predicting economic trends, and informing policy decisions. This article reviews the most commonly used data science models in economics, including econometric models like linear and logistic regression, Probit and Tobit models, time series analysis models such as ARIMA and Vector Autoregression (VAR), and panel data analysis methods like fixed and random effects models and Difference-in-Differences (DiD). Additionally, it explores machine learning algorithms, clustering and classification techniques, dimensionality reduction methods, Bayesian methods, and natural language processing (NLP) applications. The article highlights their purposes, applications, and relevant works, emphasizing the strengths and limitations of each model. It also discusses the impact of these models across various sectors, including finance, retail, energy, and healthcare. This comprehensive overview underscores the importance of aligning data science models with business objectives, ensuring data quality, investing in scalable technologies, fostering a data-driven culture, and addressing ethical considerations. The article concludes with future research directions, such as advanced neural network architectures, large language models, generative AI models, hybrid models, and the need for interpretable and ethical AI applications in economics. The importance of this topic lies in the transformative potential of data science models to enhance economic analysis and decision-making. By leveraging advanced data science techniques, economists can gain deeper insights into complex economic phenomena, improve forecasting accuracy, and develop more effective policies. As data-driven approaches continue to evolve, they provide powerful tools for addressing critical economic challenges, driving innovation, and fostering sustainable growth across various sectors.

Виктор Валентинович Новожилов: недописанная глава «австрийской» книги

The increasing complexity of economic phenomena demands improved analytical tools. The 21st century saw a discernible trend where diverse economic schools and various social sciences converged to collaboratively analyze complex economic phenomena. Traces of this trend, however, can be discerned in an earlier period in Soviet science, as illustrated by the work of Viktor Novozhilov, a leading figure in the mathema­tical school of optimal planning during the late 1930s. Despite this subsequent focus, a series of articles from the 1920s, which positioned Novozhilov among the country’s foremost economists, reflect entirely different theoretical positions. Classified as a liberal economist in the comprehensive scientific biography by Nikolai Ya. Petrakov and Natalia S. Kozerskaya, the article aims to highlight the consistency of Novozhilov’s 1920s views with the approaches of the Austrian school of economics, using content analysis as the primary research method. The article views Novozhilov’s change in research approach as the scholar’s strategic response to repressive conditions, driven by his apprehensions about potential persecution. Novozhilov’s principal concept for determining socialist national economic efficiency was rooted in the principle of opportunity costs from the Austrian school. Future research may explore parallels between Novozhilov’s approach and Friedrich von Wieser’s perspective on the valuation of capital goods.

Research on human dynamics characteristics under large-scale stock data perturbation

The group behavior of financial and economic systems is the driving force behind many complex economic phenomena. A quantitative understanding of the behavior of the financial and economic systems is an important research topic in modern behavioral science. However, most of the existing research uses mathematical statistics and other traditional methods to mine the characteristics of financial data. Few of them integrate the group behavior of the financial and economic system with high-frequency stock data. In this paper, we innovatively integrate human behavior dynamics indicators with financial analyses. Based on the dynamic factors of 215,029,800 high-frequency financial data of 3364 stocks in 11 industries during the Sino-US trade war period, we construct a stock price volatility model to analyze the group behavioral characteristics of the stock market under different external disturbances. It is found that different types of stock prices and yields have different power rates and paroxysmal characteristics under different external disturbances. Meanwhile, the kinetic characteristics of stock returns are also significantly different. This paper applies the method of human group dynamics to study the evolution behavior of the financial system under external disturbance, which provides a new perspective for the study of stock price fluctuation and some practical guidance for the practical operation of financial risk management.

The need to clarify the understanding of the category of public-private partnership in domestic legislation

The subject of the study is public-private partnership as a legal category. It should be noted that the introduction of the PPP system into the Russian legal system (practice) has become one of the most important decisions taken by the government to stimulate the economic growth of the country. The authors analyze the essence and interpretation of public-private partnership as a complex economic and legal phenomenon that constitutes the interaction of the state and private sector entities in the framework of the implementation of socially significant projects. The research methodology is based on the use of general scientific and private scientific methods (analysis, comparison, generalization, etc.), methods of studying the genesis of the phenomenon, interpretation of the structure and content of political and legal doctrines, as well as comparative and structural analysis, allowing to reveal the essential characteristics of the phenomenon under study. As a scientific novelty, the authors propose a number of additions to the Federal Law-224, including an augmented approach to the definition of public-private partnership. The authors noted that the criterion for generating goods (public, as well as mixed and mixed communal goods), in particular, during the implementation of other forms of agreements, should become a criterion for separating other forms of agreements between the state and representatives of the private sector – economic entities and what can (should) be classify it as a quasi-PPP, and the presence of 2 other signs is a dividing line between a quasi–PPP and a "full-fledged" public-private partnership.

RIDING THE BULL AND THE BEAR: A METAPHOR ANALYSIS OF TESLA'S STOCK VOLATILITY IN BUSINESS MEDIA DISCOURSE

The main aim of the study is to explore the use of conceptual metaphors in the business media discourse surrounding the volatility of the Tesla stock. The theoretical framework of Lakoff and Johnson's conceptual metaphor theory serves as the foundation of the study, helping us to identify a variety of metaphorical constructs that journalists use to describe Tesla's stock movements. The analysis uncovers a diverse set of metaphorical narratives - “roller coaster,” “rocket,” “tidal wave,” “bubble,” “wild beast,” “mountain range,” “seesaw,” and others. These metaphors are grouped into different categories that contribute unique shades of meaning to the discourse on Tesla's stock volatility. The metaphors collectively paint a vivid picture of highrisk, high-reward investing that is intertwined with themes of excitement, unpredictability, and the need for strategic decision-making. The means of verbalization for various metaphors are also explored as they provide a rich linguistic inventory for each metaphorical construct. This metaphorical analysis reveals not only the diverse narrative strategies employed by the business media but also offers insights into how these metaphors shape public perception and investor sentiment towards Tesla's stock volatility. The implications of these findings extend beyond Tesla. The findings contribute to the general understanding of business media discourse and the influential role of metaphor in shaping the coverage of complex economic phenomena.

Inflation Theory: A Theoretical Review of Demand-Pull and Cost-Push Inflation Effect on Nigeria Economy

Inflation has become a pressing issue in Nigeria, affecting the cost of living and infrastructure development. Despite tight fiscal and monetary measures, inflation continued to rise at unprecedented rates in Nigeria. The present seminar paper aims to provide insight into the theoretical understanding of Demand-pull and Cost-push inflation and explore its causes and effects on the economy and individuals. Using the Desk research method, the researcher explores empirical data from 33 published articles for the study. The empirical literature reviewed found that Demand-pull and cost-push inflation are different and have different causes and effects on individuals and the National economy. It was found that Demand-pull inflation is driven by excess demand, leading to higher prices, while Cost-push inflation is caused by increased production costs, which result in higher prices. It was concluded that Inflation is a complex economic phenomenon that significantly impacts individuals and businesses. Understanding the differences between demand-pull and cost-push inflation is essential for policymakers and economists in formulating strategies to combat inflation and maintain a stable economy. The researcher recommended, amongst others, that developing appropriate policies and addressing the root causes of inflation make it possible to mitigate inflation effects and promote sustainable economic growth.

ПОДОЛАННЯ ОБМЕЖЕНЬ ТА ВВЕДЕННЯ ПОВЕДІНКОВИХ АСПЕКТІВ У МОДЕЛІ МУЛЬТИПЛІКАТОРА-АКСЕЛЕРАТОРА САМУЕЛЬСОНА

Background. This article critically examines the limitations of traditional macroeconomic modeling, with a particular focus on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and their predecessors. By scrutinizing their shortcomings in predicting and comprehending economic crises that are highlighted in numerous research papers and addressing contemporary challenges, the article calls for a fundamental revision of these models. To overcome their limitations, the article puts forward a novel approach that integrates insights from behavioral economics and incorporates real-life agents into macroeconomic models aiming to contribute to the advancement and refinement of macroeconomic modeling. Methods. The paper centers its analysis on Samuelson's multiplier-accelerator model, a prominent framework in macroeconomics, highlighting its inherent deficiencies and proposing potential improvements through the application of behavioral economics insights. Results. By dissecting the model's core assumptions, such as the consumption function, private investment, and government spending, the article argues for the integration of real agents with bounded rationality, ‘animal spirits’, expectations of future income, consumer sentiment, and segmentation of households and firms into distinct categories. By adopting a more realistic representation of human behavior, macroeconomic models can provide more accurate forecasts and better policy guidance. Conclusions. The article states that the incorporation of behavioral factors into macroeconomic models is indispensable for advancing our understanding of complex economic phenomena. By incorporating a more nuanced and realistic representation of economic agents and their decision-making processes, these models can overcome their existing limitations and contribute to the development of more robust and effective economic policies.

Tourism and Cultural Heritage in Beiuș Land, Romania

The dynamic interactions betwee n cultural heritage and tourism lead to its assertion as an increasingly complex economic phenomenon, with social and cultural implications. At the same time, the cultural heritage has acquired a special importance among the decision makers and local communities, being associated with major tourist attractions and the cultural means of exchange, as well as educational tools for implementing sustainable management by conserving and protecting heritage elements. The importance of cultural heritage requires its evaluation, quantification, and capitalization through tourism. In this context, the present study aims, using the normalization method, to highlight the relationship between the cultural heritage and the tourist infrastructure in Beiuș Land, Bihor County, Romania. The results obtained provide a global (at the level of the studied area) and detailed image (at the level of the administrative territorial unit), regarding the relations between tourism and cultural heritage. Therefore, this study can provide impetus for the development of future research aiming at capitalizing the cultural potential.

Construction of public security indicators based on characteristics of shared group behavior patterns

PurposeHuman group behavior is the driving force behind many complex social and economic phenomena. Few studies have integrated multi-dimensional travel patterns and city interest points to construct urban security risk indicators. This paper combines traffic data and urban alarm data to analyze the safe travel characteristics of the urban population. The research results are helpful to explore the diversity of human group behavior, grasp the temporal and spatial laws and reveal regional security risks. It provides a reference for optimizing resource deployment and group intelligence analysis in emergency management.Design/methodology/approachBased on the dynamics index of group behavior, this paper mines the data of large shared bikes and ride-hailing in a big city of China. We integrate the urban interest points and travel dynamic characteristics, construct the urban traffic safety index based on alarm behavior and further calculate the urban safety index.FindingsThis study found significant differences in the travel power index among ride-sharing users. There is a positive correlation between user shared bike trips and the power-law bimodal phenomenon in the logarithmic coordinate system. It is closely related to the urban public security index.Originality/valueBased on group-shared dynamic index integrated alarm, we innovatively constructed an urban public safety index and analyzed the correlation of travel alarm behavior. The research results fully reveal the internal mechanism of the group behavior safety index and provide a valuable supplement for the police intelligence analysis.

The relationship among shopping motives, orientation and purchase intension: Theorical overview and research model

Shopping orientation is defined as a shopping lifestyle, emphasizing an individual way of purchase, and reflects on a consumption perspective as a complex economic, social, and entertainment phenomenon. Thus, it has been considered as the best way to understand the nature of consumers. In spite of being an important construct in marketing literature, nowadays, the classification of shopping orientations has been inconsistent in the scientific community, especially with the rapid growth of the internet, several orientations are emerging. Therefore, this paper aims to review some relevant theories and previous empirical research to determine typical current shopping orientations and propose a research framework exhibiting the relationship among the antecedents (shopping motives) and the consequences (purchase intention) with shopping orientations. The findings indicated three main shopping motives comprising control, intimacy, and self-expression impacting on seven shopping orientations, namely quality, brand, recreation, novelty, price, convenience, and impulse, all of which collectively influence purchase intention. Furthermore, shopping orientation is assumed as a mediating variable to control the impact of shopping motives on purchase intention. This theoretical framework is a significant contribution for literature, from which some management implications are also recommended.

Нецелевое расходование бюджетных средств как преступная форма поведения и дисфункция современной экономики

The article is devoted to the study of a very complex economic and legal phenomenon —inappropriate spending of budget funds. The article presents economic and legal arguments substantiating the need to counteract this kind of delinquent-criminal behavior as a dysfunction of the modern economy. The substantiation of the social and legal conditionality of the criminalization of misuse of budget funds is proposed. A high level of blanketness of the disposition of Article 2851 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. The most controversial examples of misappropriation of budgetary funds are demonstrated, within the framework of which the most frequent problems of qualification of this kind of socially dangerous behavior arise.

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON GLOBAL TOURISM INDUSTRY

Tourism is a complex economic and social phenomenon, that has an impact on several sectors, such as culture, education and the national economy. Travel restrictions implemented in all countries of the world due to the Covid-19 pandemic have made the tourism industry one of the most affected since the very start of the virus spread. Therefore, in 2020 there was a 73% decrease in the number of tourists, representing a loss of 1.3 trillion dollars recorded by the tourism industry. In this context, the paper aims to analyse the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the tourism industry, as well as the measures adopted to mitigate the effects of the virus on this economic sector.

Improvement of analytical support of economic security management of the agricultural enterprises

Purpose. Under the conditions of strengthening of the destructive effects of the global economic crisis and the growing number of risks of agribusiness, there is a problem in finding the ways to improve accounting and analytical support as the only reliable source of the relevant and accurate information needed for economic security management. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the directions to improve the analytical basis as a component of accounting and analytical support of economic security management of the agricultural enterprises.
 Methodology / approach. The methodological basis of the research is a dialectical method of cognition of the complex economic phenomena. Consideration of the analytical support of complex management processes took place using a systematic approach, analysis and synthesis. Using an integral approach, a methodology for assessing and analyzing economic security of the agricultural enterprises is developed. This methodology approach includes the parameters of financial, social, resource and environmental security. 
 Results. The analysis of the theoretical and methodological foundations of accounting and analytical support of economic security management showed a variety of the approaches to the choice of the indicators that describe the level of economic security. The situation is complicated by the need to analyze the information that may be relevant for management decisions in conditions of uncertainty. Under these conditions, it is proposed to implement a model of analytical support for economic security management under conditions of uncertainty and growing risks and threats to the business environment of the agricultural enterprises, which should be based on the use of general economic, statistical, integral and econometric approaches. It is determined that in the process of counteracting the risks and threats of the external and internal environment of the agrarian business the use of the integral methods of assessing economic security of the agricultural enterprises becomes crucial. It is substantiated that the most expedient in terms of achieving strategic goals of the enterprise, maintaining its competitive advantages and ensuring sustainable development is the use of integral assessment of economic security, which should be based on a synergistic approach to analysis of 25 indicators of financial, social, resource and environmental components. The approach was tested on the example of 24 agricultural enterprises of Kharkiv region (Ukraine) of crop specialization (2019). The model is also used to analyze the dynamics of the level of economic security under conditions of individual agricultural enterprises of different organizational and legal forms of management (2014–2019).
 Originality / scientific novelty. According to the results of the research, a methodological approach to determination of the integral level of economic security of the agricultural enterprises has been improved, based on the impact of the indicators of its individual components, which, at the same time, improves the analytical support of economic security management and strengthens verification, forecasting, preventive, planning and control functions of accounting and analytical support of management mechanisms.
 Practical value / implications. The practical significance of the proposed approaches consists of the possibility of positioning the enterprises in terms of optimal, satisfactory, shaky and crisis economic security zones, as well as analyzing the dynamics of the integral level of economic security, which takes into consideration the causal relations of the key areas of the agrarian business under conditions of uncertainty.

Impact of urbanization on ecological efficiency in China: An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data

Urbanization is a complex economic and social phenomenon. Recently, rapid urbanization has not only caused rapid economic development in China, it has also posed a major threat to the ecological environment. Therefore, this study aims to determine how urbanization and its internal structure affect ecological efficiency (eco-efficiency) using panel data from China’s 30 provinces from 2008 to 2017. First, the eco-efficiencies of 30 provinces in China were calculated using the super slack-based measure model (super-SBM model). Then, the entropy method was used to measure the comprehensive level of urbanization from different dimensions. Finally, the Spatial Durbin model was used to analyze the impact mechanisms of urbanization dimensions and the internal structure effect of each dimension on eco-efficiency. The results show that, from 2008 to 2017, the comprehensive level of China's urbanization in each dimension showed an upward trend, while the average eco-efficiency declined slightly. Further, local eco-efficiency exhibited a negative spatial effect on the surrounding areas. In particular, the local social urbanization level inhibited the eco-efficiency of the surrounding areas, while the local population urbanization level promoted the eco-efficiency of the surrounding areas. Moreover, population and ecological urbanization had significant positive impacts on local eco-efficiency, while social and spatial urbanization had significant negative impacts.

ФАКТОРЫ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ МОТИВАЦИОННОГО РЕПЕРТУАРА СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ МОБИЛЬНОСТИ

The article considers social mobility as a set of individual aspi- rations in the paradigm of value-oriented vectors of society development. The concept of multidimensional social mobility deepens and expands the under- standing of those complex socio-cultural, economic and political phenomena that, on the one hand, underlie mobility, and on the other, are its result.The article also proposes the author’s model “The pyramid of the choice motivation”, considers the possible horizons for planning individual social mobility and its nature on the basis of three levels of the formation of the moti- vational repertoire of mobility within the individual social space.

ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ ДИСКУРС: ТЕОРЕТИЧНЕ ОБҐРУНТУВАННЯ ПСИХОЛІНГВІСТИЧНИХ АСПЕКТІВ

Economic discourse is one of the main types of institutional discourse, which is closely correlated with political discourse. The main non-economic vectors of his research are mainly linguistically oriented, while psychological, psycholinguistic relevant research in Ukraine is still not widely published. The theses highlight and briefly analyze three basic aspects of the theoretical consideration of economic discourse from the standpoint of modern psychology: cognitive, affective and conative. The cognitive function is performed primarily by metaphors, which contribute to a deeper knowledge and understanding of complex economic facts and phenomena. Emotional attitude to these phenomena is formed through the expressiveness of economic discourse. At times, it manipulates public opinion and the economic situation in general, as it is often used in the interests of the ruling elites.