Complex Interdependent Systems Research Articles

Decision Support System for Mining Machinery Risk Mitigation Driven by Ergonomics and Contextual Theory

Despite being very old, the mining industry continues to be one of the major sources of pollution, with more people killed or injured than in all other industries. Prevention of incidents/accidents on machinery in mining pits and the issues of operator safety on mining machinery largely depend on the ergonomic adaptation of the workplace, compliance with safety procedures and policies, and organizational and other influential factors. Evidently, scarce consideration of those factors in the available literature has not given satisfactory results till now. The aim of this paper is to first set up a comprehensive model based on ergonomic factors and contextual theory, which takes into account all the influencing factors on the occurrence of incidents/accidents and represents a complex system of interdependence of influential variables of diverse, mostly stochastic nature, and then design a software solution on the given basis. In this research, based on the extensive data collected, a model was generated using the structural equations modelling methodology, which was then used to design the reasoning logic in the expert system for mitigating the risks of the operation of mining machines. An innovative solution incorporating a mathematical model of the interdependence of influential variables into the stored knowledge base offers a decision support system that provides recommendations for the maintenance of a particular mining machine, depending on the assessment of model factors in a specific decision-making situation at the higher organizational level and ergonomic suitability for the operator at the lower organizational level, and, in that manner, enables the mitigating of risky/unwanted events.

Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent hypergraphs.

The failures of individual agents can significantly impact the functionality of associated groups in interconnected systems. To reveal these impacts, we develop a threshold model to investigate cascading failures in double-layer hypergraphs with interlayer interdependence. We hypothesize that a hyperedge disintegrates when the proportion of failed nodes within it exceeds a threshold. Due to the interdependence between a node and its replica in the other layer, the disintegrations of these hyperedges could trigger a cascade of events, leading to an iterative collapse across these two layers. We find that double-layer hypergraphs undergo abrupt, discontinuous first-order phase transitions during systemic collapse regardless of the specific threshold value. Additionally, the connectivity measured by average cardinality and hyperdegree plays a crucial role in shaping system robustness. A higher average hyperdegree always strengthens system robustness. However, the relationship between system robustness and average cardinality exhibits non-monotonic behaviors. Specifically, both excessively small and large average cardinalities undermine system robustness. Furthermore, a higher threshold value can boost the system's robustness. In summary, our study provides valuable insights into cascading failure dynamics in double-layer hypergraphs and has practical implications for enhancing the robustness of complex interdependent systems across domains.

Target Indicators for Assessing the Results of the Implementation of State Programmes for Regional Cultural Development

The aim of the article was to conduct research on the evaluation potential of target indicators used to analyze the effectiveness of the implementation of state programmes for cultural development of the regions of Southern Russia, its optimality and sufficiency. New tasks in the field of management activity in the sphere of culture, initiated by a number of factors, are analyzed. The most significant factors are identified: informatization and introduction of innovative methods in the management of cultural institutions, the change of generations of visitors to cultural institutions, the change in preferences of the target audience, oriented towards more modern forms of cultural product consumption.The study was based on the analysis of strategic planning documents presented on the official websites of the ministries of culture of the regions of Southern Russia: Krasnodar and Stavropol Krai, Rostov and Astrakhan Territories, the Republics of Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia — Alania, and Dagestan. The authors analyze the composition of target indicators used in the state programmes of cultural development of the regions, describe their evaluation potential, and classify them. It is concluded that the target indicators of different groups are connected in a complex system of interdependence and complement each other. At the same time, there is a certain bias towards quantitative methods of assessment, which only indirectly and approximately indicate the quality of work of cultural institutions.We propose innovative target indicators focused on the qualitative assessment of the effectiveness of the implementation of state programmes for the cultural development of regions. These target indicators make it possible to measure the media and network activity of cultural institutions, their presence in virtual space, positive practices of cultural institutions, the development and operation of historical and cultural, literary, ethno-national, cultural and recreational brands in the region.

The Role of Tryptophan Metabolites and Short-Chain Fatty Acids in the Pathogenesis of Autoimmune Diseases

Every year, the prevalence of autoimmune diseases in the world is steadily increasing. The etiology and pathogenesis of autoimmune disease are extremely complex and largely remain unclear. However, a growing body of research data in recent years points to the critical role of microorganisms in the formation of normal immune response and autoimmune reactions in the host organism. In this case, one of the leading roles is assigned to the intestinal microbiota, represented by trillions of microbes that form a wide range of signaling and immunoregulatory metabolites. Forming a complex interdependent host-microbiota system, symbiotic bacteria largely determine the development and functioning of human immune cells. In this review, we consider the role of the intestinal microbiota and its key metabolites (namely, short-chain fatty acids and tryptophan metabolites) in the pathogenesis of autoimmune disease and discuss possible mechanisms of the influence of these signaling molecules on host immune cells.

Learning in the air traffic control tower: Stretching co-presence through interdependent sentience

This paper examines the learning and performance of the air traffic control (ATC) work domain. This domain was chosen because it embodies features that represent future work for many other industries (e.g., information service provision mediated by information technologies; a high reliance on communication skills and collaborative work; increasing complexity and intensity of the work activity), within an organisational context undergoing considerable change. In ATC work learning occurs formally as part of accredited training and informally, as part of everyday practice. In this way learning and experience of ATC work shapes – and is shaped by – the way work is organised, which includes the divisions of labour and technological artefacts. ATC work is experienced temporally, complexly, through affect and socially. Controllers learn to use a variety of socio-material resources which include embodiment and artefacts to undertake the work. In so doing the article demonstrates the ways in which learning and performance is not just a cognitive undertaking, but one that draws on embodiment to achieve what here is called “interdependent sentience”. This involves using all their senses to gain an awareness of problems as they emerge to collectively accomplish a seamless air traffic flow in a complex interdependent socio-technical system.

An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability Challenges

Scientific modelling is a prime means to generate understanding and provide much‐needed information to support public decision‐making in the fluid area of sustainability. A growing, diverse sustainability modelling literature, however, does not readily lend itself to standard validation procedures, which are typically rooted in the positivist principles of empirical verification and predictive success. Yet, to be useful to decision‐makers, models, including their outputs and the processes through which they are established must be, and must be seen to be “valid.” This study explores what model validity means in a problem space with increasingly interlinked and fast‐moving challenges. We examine validation perspectives through ontological, epistemic, and methodological lenses, for a range of modelling approaches that can be considered as “complexity‐compatible.” The worldview taken in complexity‐compatible modelling departs from the more standard modelling assumptions of complete objectivity and full predictability. Drawing on different insights from complexity science, systems thinking, economics, and mathematics, we suggest a ten‐dimensional framework for progressing on model validity when investigating sustainability concerns. As such, we develop a widened view of the meaning of model validity for sustainability. It includes (i) acknowledging that several facets of validation are critical for the successful modelling of the sustainability of complex systems; (ii) tackling the thorny issues of uncertainty, subjectivity, and unpredictability; (iii) exploring the realism of model assumptions and mechanisms; (iv) embracing the role of stakeholder engagement and scrutiny throughout the modelling process; and (v) considering model purpose when assessing model validity. We wish to widen the debate on the meaning of model validity in a constructive way. We conclude that consideration of all these elements is necessary to enable sustainability models to support, more effectively, decision‐making for complex interdependent systems.

Agriculture and forest land use change in the continental United States: Are there tipping points?

SummaryLand use in the United States (US) is driven by multiple forces operating at the global level, such as income and population growth, yield and productivity improvement, trade policy, climate change, and changing diets. Future land use has implications for biodiversity, run-off, carbon storage, ecosystem values, agriculture, and the broader economy. We investigate those forces and their implications from a multisector, multisystem dynamics (MSD) perspective focused on understanding dynamics and resilience in complex interdependent systems. Historical trends show slight increases in grassland and natural forest areas and decreases in cropland. We project these trends to intensify under higher pressures for agriculture land and reduce under lower pressures, with no evidence of tipping points toward larger agricultural land abandonment or deforestation. However, US sectoral output and trade, fertilizer use, N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture activities, and CO2 emissions from land use changes are substantially impacted under land use forcing scenarios.

Sources of uncertainty in interdependent infrastructure and their implications

While significant modeling advances have unpacked the complexities of interdependent infrastructure, post-disaster reconnaissance consistently demonstrates a wide variability of outcomes and how much is still to be learned. With that in mind, one might expect the treatment of uncertainty to be quite advanced in interdependent infrastructure models, but we find that to not be the case. In this work, we identify, define, and describe two key classes of uncertainty: system uncertainty and modeling uncertainty. System uncertainty is inherent in all complex infrastructure systems and possesses several subclasses (e.g., physical uncertainty and operational uncertainty). Modeling uncertainty occurs when researchers downscale a complex system to a mathematical or other symbolic representation. It too has several subclasses (e.g., parameter uncertainty and completeness uncertainty). We then identify how the literature to date treats uncertainty with respect to each type of uncertainty. While some work has investigated the implications of physical and temporal uncertainty, by and large, most types of uncertainty have had minimal exploration, suggesting significant knowledge gaps. Finally, we suggest a path forward for treatment and discussion of uncertainty, including what can be learned from other fields involving complex interdependent systems.

Framework for modeling interdependencies between households, businesses, and infrastructure system, and their response to disruptions—application

Understanding the impact of disruptions to infrastructure systems, households, and businesses is critical to assess resilience of urban systems. However, modeling these complex interdependent systems and applying these models to real-world areas and disruption scenarios is challenging. To address these challenges, we present a workflow for application of a framework for modeling interdependencies between households, businesses, and infrastructure systems, and their impact on disruptions. Furthermore, we identify challenges in applying this framework to an area of Singapore and analyze the resulting cost of 8 disruption scenarios using metrics that we described. Our results showed and confirmed that our model and the devised metrics can be used to assess resilience of systems. In particular, they showed that the multi-system failures have the largest impact on urban areas, and that disruptions affect small vulnerable areas disproportionately. Moreover, they revealed that disruptions to utility systems were costlier than to easily reconfigurable businesses or transportation networks. We also identified and outlined key factors influencing application of the framework to an urban area. We identified some areas for future research focused on investigating a larger set of urban areas and systems.

Land Use Change in the Continental United States: Are There Tipping Points?

Land use in US is driven by multiple forces operating at the global level, as income and population growth, yield and productivity improvement, trade policy, climate change, and changing diets. Future land use have implications for biodiversity, run-off, carbon storage, ecosystem values, agriculture, and the broader economy. We investigate those forces in the US and their implications from a multisector, multisystem dynamics (MSD) perspective focused on understanding dynamics and resilience in complex interdependent systems. Historical trends show slightly increased grassland and natural forest areas and decreases in cropland. We project these trends are intensified under higher pressures for agriculture land or reduced under lower pressures, with no evidence of tipping points toward larger agricultural land abandonment or deforestation. However, US sectoral output and trade, fertilizer use, N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture activities and CO2 emissions from land use changes are substantially impacted under several land use forcing scenarios.

Unlocking values through infrastructure interdependencies

Urban infrastructure is a complex interdependent system of systems. It provides a framework that connects and integrates social, cultural, financial, natural, technological and human values. This paper contributes to the development of new approaches towards urban infrastructure governance, identified as one of the key issues in the field of sustainable urban infrastructure. To do that, the authors explore cross-sectoral urban infrastructure projects, in which infrastructures supplying different urban functions are connected. This focus on a local level of cross-domain connection allows understanding the challenges of such connections on the project level, giving practical insights into management and governance challenges. The authors analyse four local projects of cross-sector connections of infrastructures, aiming to understand the collaborative dynamics of governing such projects towards successful outcomes, in terms of overcoming the barriers towards such projects while creating value. Given the high expectations of increased value of integrated urban infrastructures compared with traditional, siloed infrastructure development and management, the insights from local, project-level experiences, in addition to holistic perspectives, can be informative for investment strategy development by private and public stakeholders.

Attending to Place and Time: Seasonality in Early Modern Scotland and Cyprus

Far from being a simple annual round determined by the calendar, seasonality in human societies is a complex system of interdependence between humans and non-humans. It requires close attentiveness to the variability of soils, weather, topography, plants, and animals across both time and space. In this article, the author investigates mobile systems of interdependence that take advantage of topographical and seasonal variation. He uses a range of case studies from early modern Scotland and Cyprus, focusing on summer grazing in the uplands and lowland agriculture carried out by mountain communities. After a comparative discussion of seasonality, the article examines the role of topography and movement, and then puts the ‘margins at the centre’ in order to highlight the central role played by seasonal activity and movement in rural society.

Key Indicators Influencing Team Effectiveness in Project-Based Team

Teamwork is essential for any organizations to undertake particular purposes. Team members work together as a group combining their knowledge and skill to attain higher productivity and performance. An effective team is considered desired to achieve optimal performance. However, there are only a few studies of effectiveness in teams which are operated based on projects. This paper identifies and classifies the critical indicators of effectiveness in project-based teams to garner invaluable insights into how they influence team outcomes. We conduct a systematic literature review to categorize a set of indicators that affect team effectiveness based on human resource and project management literature. We follow the review method and reveal eighteen indicators of effectiveness from thirty-five publications as the basis for transforming project-based teams into effective teams. The result provides deeper insights into the importance of exercising and improving teamwork. Additionally, this paper recognizes a complex system of interdependence among indicators and identifies potential issues in adopting a strategy for the project-based team in organizations. The paper contributes to the current knowledge by providing the necessary groundwork for further research and development in this area.
 Keywords: effectiveness; teamwork; project-based; teams; key indicators

MOTIVATION AND MANAGEMENT OF SUBJECT OF THE INCLUSIVE EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Introduction. In the modern Ukrainian inclusive educational space, the motivation of the scientific and pedagogical employee of the educational institution in the conditions of global economic development, which is extremely relevant today, acquires special importance. Purpose. It consists in carrying out appropriate measures of effective activity and motivation of the scientific and pedagogical employee of the inclusive institution. Results. The article identifies the priority of motivation of research and teaching staff, which includes a number of components, namely: motivation of work, motivating staff to work effectively, which provides the necessary rewards and meets existing needs; motivation for stable and productive employment; motivation for the development of employee competitiveness, etc. The motivational model of the relationship between the head and the teaching staff is method of calculating the term of the contract of the subject of educational services is represented. The management of the subject an inclusive educational institution in the conditions of global economic development is analyzed. It is determined that the structure of the educational sphere in particular inclusive education as a socio-economic model has a complex many profile character, the elements of the structure of the educational space are characterized by a complex system of relationships and interdependence. The characteristics of the main components of motivation individuals of higher education subjects, which determine the behavior of providing educational services and form its motivational structure are highlighted and given. It is individual for each subject of educational services and is determined by many factors: level of well-being, social status, qualification, position, value orientations, etc. The development of the educational system of each country as a socio-economic model is characterized on the one hand by internal (national) features and patterns of development and on the other hand, the development of national systems is directly influenced by the external environment, determined primarily by global processes. It is substantiated that globalization has become a challenge for higher education in which modern higher education institutions are becoming global institutions.

Development of information technology for heat losses management of construction structures

The object of research in this work is unproductive heat loss in buildings and construction structures; due to the nature of the heat and mass transfer process; which operates in a complex architectural and structural scheme. One of the ways to reduce unproductive heat losses in buildings and construction is the use of information and control technologies and systems for managing such objects. These technologies and systems based on information processing on the state of buildings and construction facilities should ensure the formation of effective managerial decisions aimed at reducing unproductive heat losses and optimizing the structure of consumption of fuel and energy resources in the housing and communal sector. Today; both in the energy efficiency control systems of buildings and outside of their heat and mass transfer processes; they are analyzed either in a simple statement or in separate elements of the architectural design of a building structure. Such an approach to modeling the heat and mass transfer process does not provide a sufficiently complete assessment of unproductive heat loss. This is due to the fact that the process of heat and mass transfer is a complex interconnected and interdependent system and operates in a complex architectural and structural system of a building structure. In this paper; a component-oriented information technology is proposed that relies on a mathematical model of an interconnected and interdependent heat and mass transfer process that operates in any complex architectural and structural scheme of a house or building structure. This model; in comparison with other models used; covers all the basic properties of heat and mass transfer both in building envelopes and in vapor-air spaces. It takes into account the heat input to the house from heating and lighting systems; solar radiation and people in the building. So; it allows to more fully evaluate the heat loss in a house or building.

Central Australian Aboriginal Songs and Biocultural Knowledge: Evidence from Women's Ceremonies Relating to Edible Seeds

Songs encode rich knowledge of the social and ecological worlds of Aboriginal people living in the arid interior of the Australian continent, a desert with one of the most variable rainfalls in the world. People have shaped the ecology of this region in continuous feedback loops over many generations such that there is nowadays a complex system of interdependence between cultural practices and the local ecosystems. Singing traditions are an integral part of the spiritual health of the ecosystem and the means by which biocultural knowledge is carried on over many generations and through shifting social and ecological contexts. To illustrate this, we draw on traditional women's totemic songs relating to edible seeds from the Warlpiri and Anmatyerr Aboriginal groups in Central Australia. Edible seeds, predominantly acacias and grasses, once played a major role in sustaining the populations of these desert regions. They are one of five locally named food classes. We show how songs and their performance practices interact with techniques of seed production and knowledge systems connecting people to biota, the land, and their totemic religion. Traditional songs carry forward biocultural knowledge; yet, these songs and knowledge are under increasing threat because few contexts exist for their continued performance as mass media and new musical genres (e.g., country, pop, gospel) take center stage across Central Australia.

Data-driven estimation of interdependencies and restoration of infrastructure systems

Modern urban systems contain intricate interconnected networks whose components depend on each other to operate, provide value, and sustain a functional society. However, this interconnectedness increases the fragility of these systems by allowing the propagation of disruptions through their interdependencies, which may result in large cascades of failures that can cause severe loss of functionality and recovery capability. Furthermore, the resilience of these systems does not only depend on the individual components, but on their combined ability to recover promptly. With the aim of quantifying the interdependence between these systems, this work introduces a new statistical model for evaluating and simulating the restoration of complex interdependent systems, while modeling their restoration as interdependent processes. The statistical model is introduced along with a custom calibration algorithm that fits the model to observed time series data of infrastructure restoration of functionality. Data from six iconic earthquakes are used to fit and test the model against a suite of service restoration curves associated with different infrastructures. It is concluded that the model may be used to simultaneously estimate the restoration and resilience of an infrastructure system after the disruptions caused by a mainshock. Limitations, possible extensions, and improvements of the model are discussed.

Defence and attack of complex interdependent systems

A defender defends and an attacker attacks each of n interdependent targets which can operate or fail and be in 2n possible states. Interdependence is modelled from each target to each other target. Despite such systems usually being analysed numerically, this paper succeeds in determining analytical solutions, accounting for unit effort costs, target values, and contest intensities. Increasing interdependence from some targets to some other targets induce both players to exert higher efforts into the former targets. For 100% interdependent targets, the attacker encounters a substitution effect. In contrast, for independent targets the defender encounters a substitution effect, defending the essential targets. For similarly advantaged players, increased target contest intensities cause higher efforts and lower expected utilities. Both players may withdraw in both 100% interdependent and independent systems. Applying the model to the US economy, we illustrate how interdependence between petroleum refineries, oil and gas extraction and air transportation impact defence, attack and expected utilities.

Foundational infrastructure framework for city resilience

The city is a complex interdependent system of natural, social, and structural systems – a ‘system of systems.’ Each system is important in its own right, but most city systems are highly dependent on functioning infrastructure for their successful operation. The Foundational Infrastructure Framework (FIF) presented here helps managers and decision-makers understand the importance of infrastructure resilience to the overall resilience of their cities. It illustrates how city services are typically dependent on seven foundational infrastructure sectors. If any of these sectors fail, whether due to disaster, terrorism, or aging infrastructure, cities face a higher risk of cascading failures. The reliability and existing condition of infrastructure are integral to the resilience of infrastructure, and must be incorporated into the assessment of future risks. The FIF provides a rationale for examining the existing state of city infrastructure, and utilizing additional data and vulnerability analyses tools to help define priorities for infrastructure investment.

Effect of clustering on attack vulnerability of interdependent scale-free networks

In order to deeply understand the complex interdependent systems, it is of great concern to take clustering coefficient, which is an important feature of many real-world systems, into account. Previous study mainly focused on the impact of clustering on interdependent networks under random attacks, while we extend the study to the case of the more realistic attacking strategy, targeted attack. A system composed of two interdependent scale-free networks with tunable clustering is provided. The effects of coupling strength and coupling preference on attack vulnerability are explored. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that interdependent links between two networks make the entire system much more fragile to attacks. Also, it is found that clustering significantly increases the vulnerability of interdependent scale-free networks. Moreover, for fully coupled network, disassortative coupling is found to be most vulnerable to random attacks, while the random and assortative coupling have little difference. Additionally, enhancing coupling strength can greatly enhance the fragility of interdependent networks against targeted attacks. These results can not only improve the deep understanding of structural complexity of complex systems, but also provide insights into the guidance of designing resilient infrastructures.