Complex Human-environment Systems Research Articles

A framework to link climate change, food security, and migration: unpacking the agricultural pathway

Researchers have long hypothesized linkages between climate change, food security, and migration in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). One such hypothesis is the “agricultural pathway,” which postulates that negative climate change impacts on food production harm livelihoods, which triggers rural out-migration, internally or abroad. Migration is thus an adaptation to cope with the impacts of climate change and bolster livelihoods. Recent evidence suggests that the agriculture pathway is a plausible mechanism to explain climate-related migration. But direct causal connections from climate impacts on food production to livelihood loss to rural out-migration have yet to be fully established. To guide future research on the climate-food-migration nexus, we present a conceptual framework that outlines the components and linkages underpinning the agricultural pathway in LMICs. We build on established environmental-migration conceptual frameworks that have informed empirical research and deepened our understanding of complex human-environmental systems. First, we provide an overview of the conceptual framework and its connection to the agricultural pathway hypothesis in the climate mobility literature. We then outline the primary components and linkages of the conceptual framework as they pertain to LMIC contexts, highlighting current research gaps and challenges relating to the agricultural pathway. Last, we discuss possible future research directions for the climate-food-migration nexus. By highlighting the complex, multiscale, interconnected linkages that underpin the agricultural pathway, our framework unpacks the multiple causal connections that currently lie hidden in the agricultural pathway hypothesis.

Modelling Adaptive and Anticipatory Human Decision-Making in Complex Human-Environment Systems

Modelling Adaptive and Anticipatory Human Decision-Making in Complex Human-Environment Systems

From an agent-based laboratory to the real world: Effects of “neighborhood” size on urban sprawl

Agent-based models (ABMs) have been established as a valuable research tool in the study of complex human-environment systems. However, it is still challenging to produce generalizable and practical results with ABMs for theory development. We use the case of the effects of “neighborhood” size on urban sprawl to illustrate the practice of generating and testing general conclusions from ABMs. In agent-based urban land-change models, homebuyer agents assess land utilities with a bundle of attributes including the quality of focal or zonal neighborhoods. The size of such neighborhoods, or more precisely the spatial assessment units (SAUs), has significant impacts on simulated urban patterns, yet this sensitivity of modeled impacts has not been validated with empirical evidence. Using an ABM that features markets and competitive bidding, we explored how the neighborhood or SAU size affects urban development patterns under various scenarios of homebuyer preferences, which produced a consistent finding that bigger SAUs tended to generate more sprawled patterns. To bring this finding to the real world, we evaluated relationships in data between sprawl indices in US metropolitan areas and the average sizes of their school districts—one type of real-world SAU in neighborhood delineation and a strong input to homebuyers' assessment of housing quality. While the finding has practical policy implications for urban planning and public education, this case exemplifies a path for simple ABMs to support empirically grounded theory development.

The policy operations room: Analyzing path-dependent decision-making in wicked socio-ecological disruptions

The magnitude and speed of change in complex human-environmental systems pose a systemic dilemma for societies. Human-induced environmental changes have pushed Earth’s socio-ecological systems into an era of chronic, complex, and rapid disruptions, which call for quick intuitive decisions and effective implementation. Yet the complexity, interconnectedness and long lead times of the problems would require thoughtful and time-consuming weighing of evidence by a broad range of experts. To address the dilemma, we develop a framework, the Policy Operations Room (POR), for simultaneous practice and analysis of decision-making that prevents decisions made under time pressure from leading to unwanted socio-ecological disruptions decades ahead. The POR framework is based on earlier research on control rooms of critical infrastructures and simulation exercises of emergency response, and preliminary data from our first experiments with PORs. It immerses the policymakers in a simulated “time machine” that combines the real-time reliability management of control rooms with the long-term planning for crisis avoidance and preparedness. The POR framework can contribute significantly to novel styles of decision-making by policymakers, engineers, and corporate strategists responsible for developing urgent, forward-looking, and evidence-based policies to cope with the coming challenges of human-environmental interaction.

Taking one step further – Advancing the measurement of green and blue area accessibility using spatial network analysis

Accessibility to green and blue areas (GBA) is one of the crucial factors in complex human-environmental systems, particularly in cities. Their quantification and mapping helps planners to reduce uncertainties in providing equal access to GBA or detect mismatches between supply and demand. Although a variety of GIS methods has been used, less attention has been paid to the pitfalls, merits, and potential of the way GBA accessibility is conceptualized and measured. This paper seeks to uncover differences between methods used for measuring two ways of conceptualizing GBA accessibility: provision and population pressure. Building on the trade-offs of these methods, this study suggests network characteristics as an approach to combine the two perspectives, and discuss the relevance of all methods for spatial planning.Network analysis can be well applied for measuring provision while buffer analysis is a good proxy for population pressure. Being of advantage compared to the polygon generation of network and buffer analysis, distance-decay analysis reports good results for both provision and population pressure. The paper demonstrates that all three methods have potentials which can be included for advancing the measurement of GBA accessibility using network characteristics. Measuring the complexity of the network and the connectivity of its nodes allows us to systematically combine provision and pressure perspectives that are relevant for planning. In particular, the suggested Local Significance in combination with the Detour Index are flexible and powerful proxies for connecting edges indicating how well people can actually walk along these routes and how spatial barriers might constrain this potential flow along service connecting areas. Using network characteristics for a proper monitoring of GBA accessibility emphasized the walkable environment surrounding GBA areas and resident’s homes what is even more challenging in ever growing and densifying urban environments.

Sustainability assessment approaches based on water-energy Nexus: Fictions and nonfictions about non-conventional water resources

In arid and semi-arid regions of the world, non-conventional water resources are considered as alternative water resources and a long-term rescue plan against severe water scarcity. To avoid negative impacts, some criteria and indices are required to justify the extent of this utilization. Production of non-conventional waters requires energy while consumption of energy implies various financial and environmental impacts. In this study, Relative Sustainability Probability has been estimated by “Sandoval-Solis” and “Multivariate Copula” approaches to shed light on fictions and nonfiction of non-conventional water resources. The proposed method has been implemented in the Kashan catchment in central Iran. Results indicate that the “Multivariate Copula” approach is generating the same results as the “Sandoval-Solis” approach but relatively much easier and much faster. Moreover, the proposed method could be inspiringly promoted to higher dimensions of Copula leading to more precise results in complex human-environment systems. Besides this, results are verifying non-conventional water fictions could not be considered as long term sustainable rescue attempts, particularly so in the case of seawater conveyance. Rethinking of sustainability definition should be considered in futuristic policy makings leading to a shift to untypical development scenarios, such as Halo-Engineering concept, insisting on lower water and energy consumption in arid and semi-arid regions.

Will the COVID-19 crisis trigger a One Health coming-of-age?

Will the COVID-19 crisis trigger a One Health coming-of-age?

Wildlife hunting in complex human-environmental systems: How understanding natural resource use and human welfare can improve conservation in the Ankarafantsika National Park, Madagascar

Conservation officials work to manage complex and interacting human-environmental systems, where balancing needs between the two systems can become a source of tension. This study presents information on the use of natural resources by, and the health and welfare of, rural communities within and near Ankarafantsika National Park (ANP) in northwestern Madagascar. We focus on behaviors that are difficult for natural resource managers to measure themselves, including the hunting of threatened and protected wildlife and on sensitive information about humanwealth, health, and food security. We surveyed 41 9 households and measured the health of 1 860 individuals in 1 8 communities adjacent to or within the boundaries of ANP. We found a very high prevalence of child malnutrition, illness, and food insecurity and a heavy reliance on natural products to meet subsistence needs. More than 90% of the population reported that they hunted wildlife and harvested wild vegetables at least one day during the prior week as a direct means to cope with their food insecurity. Further, we found a high reliance on the forest for both healthcare and the building of adequate shelter. Efforts to improve overall food security would likely improve both human welfare and the long-term conservation of the threatened wildlife and habitat of Ankarafantsika. These data can help both conservation and community livelihood programs to find integrated solutions to the shared challenges of improving the well-being of human populations and the protection of Madagascar’s unique, endemic, and highly threatened biodiversity.
 
 Les gestionnaires oeuvrant pour la protection de la nature sont généralement confrontés à des systèmes socio-écologiques complexes et interactifs dans lesquels la recherche de l’équilibre entre les besoins de ces deux systèmes peut s’avérer être une source de tension. Cette étude présente des informations sur l'utilisation des ressources naturelles par les communautés rurales riveraines du parc national d'Ankarafantsika (PNA) dans le nord-ouest de Madagascar, ainsi que sur la santé et le bien-être de ces communautés. L’étude s’est en particulier orientée sur les comportementsdifficiles à mesurer pour les gestionnaires de ressources naturelles, à savoir la chasse d'animaux sauvages menacés et protégés et les informations portant sur l’opulence, la santé et la sécurité alimentaire des gens. Une enquête a été réalisée auprès de 41 9 ménages et l’état de santé de 1 860 personnes a été mesuré dans 1 8 communautés vivant à la périphérie ou à l’intérieur des limites du PNA. Une très forte prévalence de la malnutrition infantile a été observée ainsi que diverses pathologies, une insécurité alimentaire et une dépendance importante à l'égard des produits naturels pour répondre aux besoins de subsistance. Plus de 90% de la population a déclaré qu'elle avait chassé des animaux et récolté des plantes sauvages au moins un jour au cours de la semaine précédente, à titre de moyen direct pour faire face à l' insécurité alimentaire. Une forte dépendance à l'égard des forêts a également été notée pour les produits destinés à la santé et la construction de maisons. Les efforts visant à améliorer la sécurité alimentaire dans son ensemble pourraient vraisemblablement améliorer le bien-être humain aussi bien que la conservationà long terme de la faune et des habitats menacés de l'Ankarafantsika. Ces données peuvent aider les programmes de conservation et de subsistance de la communauté à trouver des solutions intégrées aux problèmes communs de l’amélioration du bien-être des populations humaines et de la protection de la biodiversité unique, endémique et hautement menacée de Madagascar.

Cascading Impacts of Payments for Ecosystem Services in Complex Human-Environment Systems

Cascading Impacts of Payments for Ecosystem Services in Complex Human-Environment Systems

Collaborative Modeling and Social Learning in the Context of Joint Forest Management in East Sikkim, India

In an effort to address challenges arising out of traditional forms of public participation, several alternative strategies for encouraging stakeholder engagement in conservation have been implemented. The role of social learning in addressing these ecological complexities has gained increasing attention in natural resource management over the last decade. Social learning forms the backbone of any collaborative conceptual modeling of complex human–environmental systems. Collaborative modeling, grounded in social learning theory, is the practice of building models with rather than for stakeholders. By focusing on stakeholder interests rather than positions, collaborative modeling enables joint action through interactive, iterative, and reflective processes. Using a case study conducted in East Sikkim, India, we hypothesize that in situations where opportunities for formal environmental education are limited, and avenues for meaningful stakeholder engagement are few, collaborative modeling can help create a platform where stakeholders have meaningful opportunities to engage, learn, share, and (re)negotiate with a focus on joint problem solving. In particular, we engaged stakeholders in an iterative collaborative modeling process in an attempt to enable them to (1) openly interact with each other, (2) build trust, (3) unfold mutual interdependencies through social learning and thus see themselves as part of a complex human-dominated ecosystem, and (4) build and translate these shared visions toward collaborative forest management in the region. Using Senecah’s Trinity of Voice as an analytical framework, we further examined how participation in the collaborative modeling process provided stakeholders with access, standing, and influence—the three critical dimensions of “voice”. Our results demonstrate that the collaborative modeling process enabled key stakeholders to unfold mutual interdependencies, and opened spaces for knowledge (re)creation, sharing, trust building, and power sharing. By moving beyond narrow technical strategies for conservation, the collaborative modeling process helped create a platform that provided stakeholders with voice—a chance to share their environmental knowledge and joint visions toward formulating effective conservation plans that address the growing uncertainties of managing complex human-dominated systems.

Exploring the coastal urban resilience and transformation of coupled human-environment systems

Resilience thinking explores the sustainability discourse and transformation of urban complex systems. From the perspective of urban and human environment, this research simulated the resilience transformation of human-environment systems according to the modified catastrophe theory. The adaptive cycle model was performed an approach to interpret resilience transformations in the interactive human-environment systems. In this study, we quantified the resilience of human and environment sub-systems through four models of catastrophe theory (Fold, Cusp, Swallowtail and Butterfly model). The resilience transformation was addressed through the mechanism of adaptive cycle that contained four phases within four different time periods (exploitation-r: 2000–2002; release phase-Ω: 2002–2003; conservation-K: 2004–2008 and exploitation-r: 2008–2010). Ultimately, we explored the key drivers of the transformation in complex human-environmental systems, which included production, energy and pollution. Moreover, understanding the transformations in terms of the human and environmental components were indispensable in urban resilience management.

Assessing recreational benefits as an economic indicator for an industrial harbour report card

Industrial harbours are a complex interface between environmental, economic and social systems. Trying to manage the social and economic needs of the community while maintaining the integrity of environmental ecosystems is complicated, as is the identification and evaluation of the various factors that underpin the drivers of economic, community and resource condition. An increasingly popular strategy to deal with the identification and evaluation challenges in complex human-environmental systems is to use a report card system which can be used as a summary assessment tool to monitor the health of aquatic ecosystems. To date though these have largely focused on environmental factors, and it is only very recently that attempts are being made to include social, cultural and economic indicators. There has been limited consensus in the selection of social and economic indicators applied in different aquatic report cards but as recreation is such an important activity, typically some measure of recreation benefit is included. However, there has been no commonality in the measures applied to assess its performance as an economic indicator.This paper is focused on the assessment of recreational benefits as an indicator of economic value in the report card for Gladstone Harbour in Queensland, Australia. It is the first aquatic health report card to include an assessment of the nonmarket value of recreation which makes it a more comprehensive indicator of economic value compared to other report cards based on measures of employment, participation or expenditure. There have now been three consecutive years of reporting (2014–2016) of the Gladstone Harbour report card, and the results indicate that the recreation index appears to be effective in monitoring changes over time.

Human needs and environmental rights to water: a biocultural systems approach to hydrodevelopment and management

Large‐scale hydrodevelopment involves synergistic processes and generates cumulative effects that include the degradation of rivers and the complex human environmental systems they support. To avert impending crises in water scarcity and food security many nations are reshaping the priorities, regimes, and praxis of fresh water resource management to explicitly recognize and address diverse human and ecological needs. A recent United Nations sponsored study documenting the linkages between water, cultural diversity, and global environmental change argues that a coupled bio/social systems approach to watershed management prioritizing biocultural health over other concerns is needed to achieve sustainability goals, address the complex and protracted conflicts that characterize river basin management, and halt biocultural degeneration. Praxis implications include (1) the need for greater respect for and recognition of the rights, values, and contributions of culturally diverse peoples in the management and use of river systems, (2) expansion of the integrated water resource management model to include prioritized allocation of water to meet environmentalandcultural flows.

Spatial assessment of ecosystem goods and services in complex production landscapes: A case study from south-eastern Australia

Many production landscapes are complex human-environment systems operating at various spatio-temporal scales and provide a variety of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) vital to human well-being. EGS change over space and time as a result of changing patterns of land use or changes in the composition and structure of different vegetation types. Spatio-temporal assessment of EGS can provide valuable information on the consequences of changing land use and land cover for EGS and helps to deal with this complexity. We carried out a quantitative and qualitative appraisal of selected EGS (timber production, carbon stock, provision of water, water regulation, biodiversity, and forage production) to understand how these have altered in a complex mosaic of landscape that has undergone significant change over the past 200 years.Land use and land cover types and their associated EGS were assessed and mapped using a wide range of readily available data and tools. We also evaluated the trade-offs among services associated with observed land use change. In contrast to work elsewhere, we found the recent changes in land use and land cover have an overall positive impact on various EGS due mainly to the conversion of pasture to managed plantations which are connected to the larger areas of remnant vegetation. Results also indicate that there was a high level of variation in the distribution of the EGS across the landscape. Relatively intact native vegetation provides mainly regulating services whereas the modified landscapes provides provisioning services such as timber and forage production at the cost of regulating services. Rapidly changing demand and supply of certain goods and services (e.g., timber, pulp or carbon) may also have positive and negative impact on other services. For example, increasing plantation rotation has positive impacts for biodiversity and carbon stock but reduces stream flow and water yield.

Environmental Literacy in Science and Society – From Knowledge to Decisions

List of boxes Overview Roadmap to environmental literacy Part I. Invention of the Environment: Origins, Transdisciplinarity, and Theory of Science Perspectives: 1. What knowledge about what environment? 2. From environmental literacy to transdisciplinarity 3. Basic epistemological assumptions Part II. History of Biological Knowledge: 4. Emerging knowledge on morphology, ecology, and evolution 5. From molecular structures to ecosystems Part III. Contributions of Psychology: 6. Psychological approaches to human-environment interactions 7. Drivers of individual behavior and action Part IV. Contributions of Sociology: 8. Traditional sociological approaches to human-environment interactions 9. Modern sociological approaches to human-environment interactions Part V. Contributions of Economics: 10. Origins of economic thinking and the environment 11. Contemporary economic theories dealing with the environment Part VI. Contributions of Industrial Ecology: 12. The emergence of industrial ecology 13. Industrial agents and global biogeochemical dynamics Part VII. Beyond Disciplines and Sciences: 14. Integrated systems modeling of complex human-environment systems Roland W. Scholz, Justus Gallati, Quang Bao Le and Roman Seidl 15. Transdisciplinarity - a tool for environmental literacy Part VIII. A Framework for Investigating Human-Environment Systems (HES): 16. The HES postulates 17. The HES framework Roland W. Scholz, Claudia R. Binder and Daniel J. Lang 18. Applying the HES framework Roland W. Scholz, Claudia R. Binder, Daniel J. Lang, Timo Smieszek and Michael Stauffacher 19. Comparing the HES framework with alternative approaches Roland W. Scholz and Fridolin Brand Part IX. Perspectives for Environmental Literacy: 20. New horizons: environmental and sustainability sciences Glossary References Index.

Indicating human-environmental system properties: Case study northern Fenno-Scandinavian reindeer herding

Abstract According to the contemporary ecosystem approach, integrated management of natural resources recognizes that humans, with their cultural diversity, are an integral component of many ecosystems. Therefore, the linkages of human actions with their environment have to be assessed in an integrative manner. Appropriate models and indicators, data and information for human and environmental systems are needed as well as suitable linkages between the specific components. In this paper, an indicator framework for the analysis and assessment of complex human-environmental systems is presented. An example application from a research project dealing with the development of sustainable management strategies for the husbandry of semi-domesticated reindeer in northern Fenno-Scandinavia illustrates the potentials and limitations of this framework. The concept and indicators of ecological integrity are used to assess the impacts of reindeer herding on the natural environment. Human well-being is evaluated with indicators for social and economic welfare. In conjunction with three scenarios, associated with varying land use patterns and land use priorities, the relevance of the particular components for a sustainable resource management in the case study area was estimated and recommendations to management authorities could be given.

Does scale exist? An epistemological scale continuum for complex human–environment systems

Scale pervades interdisciplinary research on human–environment systems that exhibit hallmarks of complexity such as path dependence, nonlinearity, and surprise. Although scale concepts are woven through the data, methodology, and theory of human–environment research, the question remains: does scale exist? More broadly, can a single definition of scale suffice for human–environment systems? The meaning and use of scale is contested across the social, natural, and information sciences. Given that the study of human–environment systems spans many of these disciplines, specific research problems inherit a broad range of conflicting scale concepts. This paper proposes an epistemological scale continuum that arrays scale perspectives from the realist contention that there are natural scales independent of observers through to the constructionist view that scale is subjective and socially mediated. As seen in biocomplexity and human–environment research more broadly, this scale continuum establishes that scale is not a single measure or object of study, nor is any single definition of scale sufficient for human–environment systems. Viewpoints and tensions among scale epistemologies also suggest several general principles for using scale effectively in human–environment research.

Statistical modeling of land-cover changes based on key socio-economic indicators

Landscapes are complex human–environment systems operating at spatio-temporal scales. Time is just as important as space when researching landscape changes. These changes are influenced by both environmental and socio-economic factors. However, correlations between environmental landscape attributes and land-cover patterns/changes are weakened by human activities such as intensification of agriculture eliminating the constraints of water and nutrient availability. Relations between changes in socio-economic organisation and land cover become apparent only over a longer period of time. Thus, in our study, we focused on socio-economic factors and their long-term effects on land cover. We present a method to (i) differentiate types of land-cover changes at district level, (ii) model correlations between socio-economic factors and land cover changes and (iii) identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes between 1945 and 1999 in a German marginal rural landscape. We employed agricultural land-cover data gained from the interpretation of multi-temporal aerial photographs. Based on these data, we differentiated types of land-cover changes, characterising different directions of agricultural land-cover changes in the observation time period. Various socio-economic aspects were considered by introducing data representing factors of demography, employment, economy, infrastructure, agricultural structure and policy. The relations between time series of land-cover data and of socio-economic data were modeled with the help of redundancy analysis. Correlation coefficients were used to identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes. The results showed that a relatively high percentage of variance in land-cover data can be explained by socio-economic factors. The types of land-cover changes can be characterised by combinations of key socio-economic indicators. The indicators can be helpful to reconstruct land-cover changes in other regions. Thus, they provide a basis for the development of sustainable land-cover management systems.

Restocking and stock enhancement of coastal fisheries: Potential, problems and progress

The demand for fish is expected to rise substantially by 2020. Although aquaculture must provide much of the additional fish, it remains to be seen whether restored or enhanced capture fisheries can also help fill the projected gap in supply. The key challenges for capture fisheries involve reducing fishing effort, removing excess fishing capacity and building the institutional arrangements needed to restore spawning biomass to more productive levels, and to reverse degradation of the supporting habitats. Two interventions, based largely on hatchery technology, have the potential to reduce the time needed to rebuild some severely over-exploited fisheries, or improve the productivity of other ‘healthy’ fisheries. These interventions are ‘restocking’, which involves releasing cultured juveniles to restore spawning biomass to levels where the fishery can once again support regular harvests, and ‘stock enhancement’, which involves release of cultured juveniles to overcome recruitment limitation. However, despite the potential of these interventions, few restocking and stock enhancement programmes have met expectations. The main problems have been a pre-occupation with bio-technical research at the expense of objective analysis of the need for the intervention, and failure to integrate the technology within an appropriate management scheme that has the participation and understanding of the users. The papers presented at the Special Symposium on this subject at the Seventh Asian Fisheries Forum provide a series of valuable lessons to guide objective assessment of the potential for restocking and stock enhancement. They also show how to implement these interventions responsibly and effectively where they are deemed to add value to other forms of management. Above all, these studies demonstrate that restocking and stock enhancement programmes are applied in complex human–environment systems, involving dynamic interactions between the resource, the technical intervention and the people who use it.

Land-Cover Change Trajectories in Northern Ghana

Land-cover change trajectories are an emergent property of complex human-environment systems such as the land-use system. An understanding of the factors responsible for land change trajectories is fundamental for land-use planning and the development of land-related policies. The aims of this study were to characterize and identify the spatial determinants of agricultural land-cover change trajectories in northern Ghana. Land-cover change trajectories were defined using land-cover maps prepared from Landsat Thematic Mapper dataset acquired in 1984, 1992, and 1999. Binary logistic regression was used to model the probability of observing the trajectories as a function of spatially explicit biophysical and socioeconomic independent variables. Population densities generally increased along the continuum of land-use intensity, whereas distance from market and roads generally decreased along this continuum. Apparently, roads and market serve as incentives for settlement and agricultural land use. An increase in population density is an important spatial determinant only for trajectories where the dominant change process is agricultural extensification. A major response to population growth is an increase in cultivation frequency around the main market. Agricultural intensification is highly sensitive to accessibility by roads. The increase in land-use intensity is also associated with low soil quality. These results suggest the need for policies to restore soil fertility for agricultural sustainability. The models also provide a means for identifying functional relationships for in-depth analyses of land-use change in Ghana.