Complex Adaptive Systems Research Articles

The Role of Complexity Theory as a Foundation for Taking a Systems Approach in Your Organization

This article examines how leaders can apply concepts from complexity theory to take a systems-based approach to navigating organizational complexity. It first defines key ideas from complexity science such as complexity theory, which views organizations as existing in a state of productive tension at the "edge of chaos" rather than under pure control, a systems approach that recognizes organizations as interconnected networks of interdependent parts, and complex adaptive systems characterized by self-organization. The article then discusses how leaders can establish clear yet flexible goals and direction, loosen central control to allow decentralized experimentation, promote transparency, and embrace diversity to foster conditions for bottom-up self-organization. It also explores developing networked mindsets through cross-functional teams, relationship building, and transparent information sharing to enhance emergent coordination. Additionally, the article emphasizes cultivating attentiveness to subtle changes and disturbances by establishing early warning systems and experimenting quickly, as well as nurturing an adaptive culture through innovation, reskilling, and rapid pilot-based learning to sustainably renew the organization amid nonlinearity and uncertainty.

Creating demand for unmet needs: Agile Storytelling

IntroductionThe translational gap from the discovery of evidence-based solutions to their implementation in healthcare delivery organizations derives from an incorrect assumption that the need for change among executive, administrative, or clinical personnel is the same as the demand for change. For sickle cell disease (SCD), implementation of evidence-based guidelines is often delayed or obstructed due to lack of demand. This challenge allows for the persistence of resource limitations and care delivery models that do not meet the community's unique needs. Agile Storytelling is a process built on the scientific foundations of behavioral economics, complexity science, and network science to create local demand for the implementation of evidence-based solutions.MethodsAgile Storytelling includes a design phase and a testing phase. The design phase converts the evidence-based solution into a minimally viable story of a hero, a villain, struggle, drama, and a resolution. The testing phase evaluates the effectiveness of the story via a series of storytelling sprints in the target local healthcare delivery organization. The efficacy of Agile Storytelling was tested in an iterative n-of-1 case study design.ResultsAgile Storytelling was used in a large, urban, healthcare system within the United States to facilitate implementation of national SCD best-practice guidelines. After repeated failures attempting to use national and local data regarding the high societal need to hire a SCD-specific social worker, an Agile change conductor using Agile Storytelling was able to create demand for the new position within a week. This decision has ultimately improved patient outcomes and led to the adoption of a specialized collaborative care team for SCD within the health network.DiscussionAgile Storytelling can lead to structured, effective, and informed storytelling to create local demand within healthcare delivery organizations.

История становления и развития Краснодарской научной медицинской школы анестезиологии и реаниматологии

Today, a relevant aspect of developing a competent understanding of medicine as a complex science interconnected with a number of humanities disciplines is to consider its history through the prism of the most outstanding research teams of scientific medical schools. The presented article is devoted to consideration of the historical path of formation and development of the scientific medical school of anesthesiology and resuscitation in Kuban. The authors provide data on the prerequisites (conditions for improving knowledge about anesthesiology and resuscitation in the region) and the main stage of this process. The materials of the historiographic research were data from archival funds, in particular the state archive of the Krasnodar Territory and the Museum of History of the Kuban State Medical University, personal collections of members of the scientific school, as well as specialized literature within the scope of the work. The research methodology involved the use of chronological, biographical, analytical and narrative methods.

Research Framework of Regional Economic-Ecological System Vulnerability Evolution and Adaptive Leap under the Background of Climate Change

This study focuses on the vulnerability evolution mechanism of regional economic-ecological systems and its adaptive leapfrogging path under the background of climate change. Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems and the framework of social-ecological system coupling, a regional economic-ecological system vulnerability assessment index system was constructed. Using the system dynamics model and scenario simulation method, the impact transmission mechanism of climate change on regional economic-ecological systems was analyzed, and the spatiotemporal evolution law of system vulnerability was revealed. The study found that climate change has aggravated the vulnerability of regional economic-ecological systems by changing resource endowments, disturbing industrial structure, and affecting ecological service functions. In response to this problem, this study proposed a leapfrogging path based on adaptive management: including building a climate-resilient industrial system, optimizing resource allocation efficiency, enhancing ecosystem service functions, and improving regional adaptive governance mechanisms. The research results have important theoretical value and practical significance for promoting regional sustainable development and ecological civilization construction.

Accessible Trail Tourism: Trail Accessibility and Difficulty Rating Approach Designed for Individuals, Including With Mobility Impairments

ABSTRACTThis study introduces a novel approach to trail accessibility and difficulty rating tailored specifically for individuals, including those with mobility impairments, aiming to promote accessible trail tourism. Grounded in theoretical frameworks of inclusive outdoor recreation, equality, and complex adaptive systems, the proposed rating system incorporates criteria addressing physical access, terrain challenges, and amenities to accommodate diverse user needs. This study employed a sensor technology, called wheeled instrumentation sensor package (WISP) within the framework of the high‐efficiency trail assessment process (HETAP) to develop a new quantitatively based trail classification scheme. A case study trail and two hypothetical synthetic data trails were used to demonstrate both the trail wheelchair accessibility binary classification approach and the proposed trail difficulty classification approach. This research pioneers trail accessibility and difficulty rating and underscores the importance of integrating accessibility considerations into trail management practices to create truly inclusive outdoor recreational experiences.

Teacher Performance in the 21st Century: Examining the Roles of Leadership, Self-Efficacy, Compensation, and Job Satisfaction

The main purpose of this study is to examine the effect of leadership on teacher performance via self-efficacy and job satisfaction, a mediating variable, as well as compensation. Based upon an Indonesia study, the research engages a meta-analysis of these relationships for illuminating insights on optimizing teacher performance in educational environments. We collected data from a sample of 680 teachers 87% response rate and analyzed them using SmartPLS, the evaluation comparable to complex social science models. The results suggest that both self-efficacy and compensation affect teacher performance directly, respectively, through job satisfaction; principal leadership only has a significant direct effect on the dependent variable without being mediated by job satisfaction. These results may have implications for how intrinsic and extrinsic factors, motivation, rewards, and leadership styles influence faculty outcomes. The practical implications include a call for targeted teacher professional development and compensation policies that are more equitable and effective educational leadership practices to improve teaching performances, which will in turn favorably impact the quality of education generally.

Building Collaborative Governance in the Extractive Sector

The extractive sector faces wicked problems — so-called because they are complex, ambiguous, dynamic and evolving. They usually lack one root cause and their solutions often create unintended consequences. However, collaborative governance offers a way to address the sector’s complex challenges. By studying examples of collaboration in other areas — environmental conservation, health care, education, urban planning and disaster response — the extractive sector can adopt best practices for its own purposes. Rather than a top-down, siloed approach, collaborative governance involves working with a variety of stakeholders, such as local communities, government, industry and civil society groups. Collaborative governance is a pragmatic and effective approach to problem-solving and fosters transparency, inclusivity and adaptability by integrating a range of perspectives and expertise, culminating in effective and equitable policy-making. Environmental impacts, social conflicts and a broad range of stakeholder interests are just a few of the challenges the extractive sector faces, making traditional top-down decision-making inadequate. The sector could incorporate collaborative governance in decision-making processes by adopting principles from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory. These principles include adaptability, use of local knowledge and decentralization to aid in balancing hard and fast regulations with on-the-ground realities, including playing a valuable role in conflict prevention. Among the problems the sector faces are economic dependence on finite, depleting resources, evolving technology, social conflict, a shifting regulatory environment, uncertain global markets and the imperative to respect cultural and Indigenous rights. Thus, a key part of collaborative governance would be training local community leaders to advocate for their interests and to manage their resources responsibly. Many other sectors offer valuable lessons in collaborative governance. For example, inclusive and shared decision-making in health care has produced better, more effective and tailored patient outcomes. Urban planning’s focus on sustainability can guide the extractive sector in managing environmental impacts and promoting community resilience. Stakeholders in conservation and natural resource management, including government, organizations and Indigenous communities, already collaborate to establish protected areas, engage in wildlife management and work on sustainable land use. Collaboration in education encompasses school boards, parent councils and other stakeholders. Disaster management and emergency response also have much to teach about collaborative governance. With NGOs, government, first responders and communities co-ordinating disaster preparedness, response and recovery efforts, disaster management has become much more effective. International development is another field that successfully uses collaborative governance. Collaboration between governments, NGOs, donors and communities helps address poverty, infrastructure development and local social issues, with a focus on local ownership, capacity building and sustainable development. The need for more collaborative approaches in the extractive sector is increasingly evident. New global standards demand collaboration, consultation and even consent from local communities, especially where Indigenous peoples are involved. Impact assessments, community consultations and benefit-sharing agreements are now the norm. Collaborative governance is expanding in the extractive sector; thus it is essential to critically assess current practices, learning from collaboration in other sectors in order to adapt key methods to specific contexts in the extractive sector. A blueprint for future collaboration requires thoughtful reflection on what has worked, what has not and why.

Changes in systems thinking and health equity considerations across four communities participating in Catalyzing Communities.

Childhood obesity is a persistent public health concern, and community-based interventions have become crucial for addressing it by engaging local communities and implementing comprehensive evidence-based strategies. The Catalyzing Communities intervention takes a "whole-of-community"approach to involve leaders from diverse sectors in thinking systematically about child healthy weights and implementing evidence-based solutions. Using systems thinking and the Getting to Equity framework to guide interview analysis, this study examines changes in participants' use of systems thinking concepts and health equity in 43 participants across four U.S. communities involved in the Catalyzing Communities intervention. Our findings reveal significant shifts in systems thinking concepts, as participants develop a deeper understanding of childhood obesity as a complex adaptive system, and system insights, as participants increasingly recognize the interconnections and leverage points within the system driving childhood obesity. Participants also experienced increases in health equity thinking and action, particularly when discussing social and structural determinants of health, commitment to targeted actions, and a focus on addressing barriers and enhancing resources. The intersection between systems insights and health equity action, such as explaining leverage points and interventions to reduce deterrents to health behaviors, suggests the need for systems thinking activities to be integrated into health equity planning. Future research is needed to develop measures to connect systems thinking concepts to health equity, and the impact of these to community-level policy, systems, and environmental changes in public health.

Resilience optimization analysis of smart mining cluster cyber-physical systems based on the NK model

This paper explores the challenges and opportunities presented by the digitization and intelligent clustering in the mining industry, focusing on the security and inter-system influences within Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) of smart mining clusters. Utilizing the NK model and complex adaptive systems theory, we construct a dual-layered network and cascade failure model, alongside a dynamic repair strategy that adapts to environmental changes. By analyzing the critical parameters of node number (N) and relationship density (K), we assess the resilience of smart mining CPS under cascade failures with dynamic repairs. Our findings reveal that dynamic repair strategies significantly enhance network resilience against both random and deliberate attacks, with N and K acting as crucial regulators of repair effectiveness. This suggests that adapting N and K can improve repair outcomes and system resilience, despite increasing complexity. The paper discusses the practical implications of these strategies through simulation and real-world scenarios, highlighting the need for adaptive repair strategies in enhancing smart mining CPS resilience and process safety. Introducing the NK model to CPS resilience research offers new insights into the resilience of smart mining cyber-physical systems and provides a comprehensive risk analysis method for these systems in complex scenarios.

Preparing for pandemics needs a dose of public health and a booster of “complex thought” (Errare humanum est, perseverare diabolicum)

AbstractThe COVID‐19 pandemic has triggered unprecedented governmental responses worldwide, revealing weaknesses in health systems and public health policies due to lack of “complex thought” required to manage complex adaptive systems. Understanding COVID‐19 response strategies' multiple effects is particularly important now that pandemic preparedness and response (PPR) is on top of the global health political agenda. Here, we adopt a complex adaptive systems approach to critically analyze the literature and draw lessons from the COVID‐19 response to inform future PPR strategies. We observe that in many contexts, strategies implemented in response to COVID‐19 were poorly effective, inefficient, and inequitable. We explain the limitations of these prevailing measures and propose approaches and strategies to manage pandemics arising from a “systems thinking” perspective. PPR demands the adoption of an evolving, evidenced‐informed, and context‐specific strategy based on comprehensive approaches reflecting the complexities of health crises. This means moving away from single‐focused health security paradigms to consider the full range of health problems facing populations and adopting a package of interventions chosen via participatory and deliberative processes that are context‐specific and sensitive, as well as evidence‐driven, to ensure a fair balance between various pillars of pandemic responses: health promotion, non‐pharmaceutical interventions, prophylaxis, vaccines, and treatments.

Co-evolution, organizational capacity building, logistics capabilities and operational agility during health emergencies

PurposeGlobally, health care facilities often fail to respond quickly to health emergencies, resulting in significant deaths. Thus, the study examines the mediating effect of logistics capabilities in the relationship between co-evolution, organization capacity building and operational agility.Design/methodology/approachSmartPLS 4.0.8.3, variance-based structural equation models (VB-SEM) were used to test direct and indirect hypotheses across 45 health facilities. The respondents were 140 nurses and doctors. Disproportionate stratified simple random sampling was used based on government and private health facilities in Kampala City, Uganda.FindingsA significant and positive relationship exists between logistics capability and operational agility. However, co-evolution and organizational capacity are intimately linked to operational agility via logistics capability.Research limitations/implicationsA quantitative cross-sectional survey was conducted using self-administered questionnaires. The results did not show any variation in the operational agility of health facilities during emergency management; thus, qualitative approaches are needed.Practical implicationsDuring emergency management, health facilities need to cooperate by sharing information, building capacity to increase their responsiveness and flexibility. This should be done by sharing equipment, tools, drugs and medical supplies, and we hope to encourage joint medical research.Originality/valueA complex adaptive systems (CAS) framework is used in this study to examine how co-evolution, organizational capacity building and logistical capability relate to the operational agility of healthcare during times of emergency.

The PHEM-B toolbox of methods for incorporating the influences on Behaviour into Public Health Economic Models

BackgroundIt is challenging to predict long-term outcomes of interventions without understanding how they work. Health economic models of public health interventions often do not incorporate the many determinants of individual and population behaviours that influence long term effectiveness. The aim of this paper is to draw on psychology, sociology, behavioural economics, complexity science and health economics to: (a) develop a toolbox of methods for incorporating the influences on behaviour into public health economic models (PHEM-B); and (b) set out a research agenda for health economic modellers and behavioural/ social scientists to further advance methods to better inform public health policy decisions.MethodsA core multidisciplinary group developed a preliminary toolbox from a published review of the literature and tested this conceptually using a case study of a diabetes prevention simulation. The core group was augmented by a much wider group that covered a broader range of multidisciplinary expertise. We used a consensus method to gain agreement of the PHEM-B toolbox. This included a one-day workshop and subsequent reviews of the toolbox.ResultsThe PHEM-B toolbox sets out 12 methods which can be used in different combinations to incorporate influences on behaviours into public health economic models: collaborations between modellers and behavioural scientists, literature reviewing, application of the Behaviour Change Intervention Ontology, systems mapping, agent-based modelling, differential equation modelling, social network analysis, geographical information systems, discrete event simulation, theory-informed statistical and econometric analyses, expert elicitation, and qualitative research/process tracing. For each method, we provide a description with key references, an expert consensus on the circumstances when they could be used, and the resources required.ConclusionsThis is the first attempt to rigorously and coherently propose methods to incorporate the influences on behaviour into health economic models of public health interventions. It may not always be feasible or necessary to model the influences on behaviour explicitly, but it is essential to develop an understanding of the key influences. Changing behaviour and maintaining that behaviour change could have different influences; thus, there could be benefits in modelling these separately. Future research is needed to develop, collaboratively with behavioural scientists, a suite of more robust health economic models of health-related behaviours, reported transparently, including coding, which would allow model reuse and adaptation.

Evolution of water technology from a structural perspective

Rivers are cradles of human civilisations and continual innovations in water technologies are the key to sustainable human development. Yet, limited research has explored the interactive dynamics among different technologies, hindering our ability to effectively manage technological transition. This paper presents a framework that conceptualizes water technology as a complex adaptive system containing three interrelated sub-systems: water demand, water supply, and water management. The interactions among these sub-systems were measured using three network-based metrics: intensity, brokerage, and efficiency. Patents registered in the World Intellectual Property Organization from 1863 to 2020 were used as the data source. It was found that 40,304 patents from 44 countries were registered, with 40% of them belonging to the water management sub-system, followed by water supply (35%), and water demand (25%). Technological development in the three sub-systems presented linear growth over the past 160 years, focusing on water treatment, hydroelectric power, hydraulic engineering and water monitoring. The water-demand sub-system was identified as the structural “bottleneck” with the highest brokerage value, which was considered crucial for knowledge transfer between the other two sub-systems. Overall, the water technology system is characterized by slow development, skewed spatial coverage, categorical homogeneity, and structural imbalances, limiting our ability to address the escalating global water threats.

Analysis on the Evolution Characteristics of Rural Tourism Public Service System from the Perspective of Digitalization—Empirical Evidence from the Silk Road Economic Belt

The integration of digitalization with public tourism services has emerged as a new model for the development of the rural tourism public services. The Silk Road Economic Belt is a crucial area for the future development of the tourism industry. Exploring the coupling of the digitalization and the development trends of the rural tourism public services is significant for advancing rural tourism in this region. This study applies Complex Adaptive Systems theory and Synergy theory to the development of the digitization of rural tourism public services, clarifying the structure of the digitization of the rural tourism public service system. Based on this, a collaborative development evaluation system for the digitization of rural tourism public services is constructed, focusing on the Silk Road Economic Belt. By using the SMI-P evaluation model, ArcGIS spatial visualization, Gini coefficient, and kernel density methods, the collaborative development of the digitization of the rural tourism public service system was measured and analyzed in this paper. The findings reveal the following: (1) The collaborative development of the digitization of the rural tourism public service system in the Silk Road Economic Belt shows a gradual upward trend, yet the overall level of the collaboration is transitioning from a state of imbalance. (2) Compared to the Southwest, the Northwest exhibits a lower overall level of collaboration, with growing disparities in collaborative development indices among provinces, although there is a trend toward higher levels of aggregation. (3) The development of the rural tourism public services is trending toward a favorable state of multi-dimensional collaboration, characterized by significant regional features, including multi-polarization and unbalanced development. Finally, optimization paths for the digital development of the rural tourism public services were proposed in this study, which can provide guidance for improving the construction of the digitization of the rural tourism public service system and exploring clear development pathways.

The Nursing Theory of Complex Adaptive Systems: A New Paradigm for Nursing.

This article explores the theoretical and practical implications of the meaning of thinking, living, and acting within the framework of nursing in Complex Adaptive Systems. The Nursing Theory of Complex Adaptive Systems is grounded in the principles of Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs). It seeks to offer a new paradigm for nursing practice that addresses healthcare's dynamic and evolving nature. The Nursing Theory of Complex Adaptive Systems represents a new nursing paradigm capable of addressing the challenges of a constantly evolving healthcare environment. This theory promotes personalized care plans adaptable to patients' changing needs by emphasizing a holistic and interactive approach to care. It also underscores the importance of interprofessional collaboration and effective communication in improving the quality of care. The Nursing Theory of Complex Adaptive Systems has significant implications for nursing practice, education, and research. It provides a robust framework for developing adaptive and resilient nursing practices that can respond to the complexities of modern healthcare. By integrating the principles of CASs into nursing, the Nursing Theory of Complex Adaptive Systems fosters a more flexible, interdependent, and holistic approach to patient care, ultimately enhancing patient outcomes and improving healthcare systems. This theory has practical applications in various healthcare settings, offering a framework for personalized and adaptable care plans that respond to the dynamic needs of patients while improving overall system efficiency. Future research should focus on the empirical validation of the Nursing Theory of Complex Adaptive Systems and its practical implementation in various healthcare settings.

Noise hindering sound complexity in urban environments: Towards a novel evaluation criterion for urban sustainability

Urban environments are complex adaptive systems, wherein changes in one area can lead to unforeseen consequences in others. Environmental noise emerges as a multifaced issue influencing various receivers across different spatial and temporal scales. The perception of noise as a high-intensity or unwanted sound has defined the concept of quietness accordingly overlooking sustainability co-benefits. This study proposes an alternative evaluation criterion for urban planning and design, focusing on the sound complexity of public spaces that are vulnerable to environmental noise fluctuations. To determine the sensitivity of sound complexity to environmental noise, sound level measurements and sound recordings were conducted along the waterfront of a Mediterranean metropolis during the pandemic lockdowns (April 2021). Additionally, the bird dawn chorus phenomenon was studied. The analysis of collected data revealed an inverse relationship between complexity and noise, highlighting an additional impact on the urban sound environment. The promotion of sound complexity as a strategy for livable and sustainable cities can guide urban planners and designers in developing quiet and ecologically resilient urban environments.

Learning from innovative staff practices that led to virtual disability services using the lens of Complex Adaptive Systems

This paper draws on a Complex Adaptive Systems lens to develop an understanding of the staff practices that supported the development of Virtual Disability Services in Ireland amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The study involved twelve interviews with service providers, which were analysed using Reflexive Thematic Analysis, leading to two overarching themes. The first theme focuses on the logistics of constructing the response. This includes dynamic adaptiveness, technological readiness, a positive attitude towards technology, resource availability, digital skills, and the level of take-up. The second theme centres on the enacted response, which encompasses sensemaking, developing technological expertise, managing upward, fostering creative innovation, cultivating a systems sensibility, and creating conditions for psychological safety and authentic engagement. We conclude that staff practices are key for creating conditions conducive to safe spaces, sustaining well-being, and reshaping power dynamics and emphasise the importance of embracing technology as a tool for innovation within complex operating environments. POINTS OF INTEREST Virtual Services offered a good alternative to face-to-face services for some disabled people during COVID-19: they supported people to stay connected while self-isolating. Even though some staff and disabled people did not have many technology skills before COVID-19, they learned in real-time, using the resources available to them. Online relationships were seen as more equal as everyone was learning as they went. People with disabilities developed new skills and sometimes co-facilitated sessions. This gave them greater choice and control over how they interacted with services and changed power relationships within services. Having choices about how to access services is in line with enhancing rights and choice under the Convention of the Rights of People with Disabilities. Promoting digital inclusion may protect people against future societal disruptions.

Ready-ing HRD for complexity

ABSTRACT This article imagines the future of HRD using a complexity lens. Complexity calls for rethinking the industrial-era framing of work, learning, and change. We discuss foundational concepts and terminology that inform our work and consider links with HRD. We adopt the idea of ‘ready-ing’, introduced by Nora Bateson, who challenges strongly held theories of top-down, step-by-step change that do not work well in complex adaptive systems. She instead suggests we should ready people and organisations for change they might not imagine and cannot predict. We then draw from earlier thinking on sculpting the learning organisation that seems relevant to complexity. To illustrate what ready-ing might look like in practice, we elaborate four examples, or sightings, of how organisations ready for change. We discuss the resulting implications for HRD practice in leadership development and organisational change. We also examine ways that university preparation has pivoted towards a future of ready-ing HRD scholars and researchers for ‘what if’ thinking and complex adaptive change. We conclude with reflections on developing new mindsets and skill sets for HRD’s ready-ing for complexity.

Fostering TBL Success at Alfaisal University: A Complex Adaptive Systems Approach.

This study explores the implementation of Team-Based Learning (TBL) at Alfaisal University's College of Medicine through the lens of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory. The research question investigates how the application of CAS principles can enhance the implementation and effectiveness of TBL in medical education. The study employed a convergent parallel mixed methods longitudinal design, integrating quantitative performance metrics and qualitative themes. Quantitative analysis revealed modest improvements in individual and team-based learning scores, with a promising trend of students moving from the lower to the higher quartiles over time. Qualitative insights aligned with CAS principles, highlighting the adaptive implementation, emergent outcomes, self-organization, positive feedback loops, and depth of learning facilitated by TBL. The findings demonstrate the value of a CAS-informed approach in navigating the complexities of educational change and fostering a more resilient and adaptive educational model. The study contributes to the understanding of how CAS theory can guide the successful implementation of innovative pedagogies like TBL in medical education.

Shrinkage and deformation of material extrusion 3D printed parts during sintering: numerical simulation and experimental validation

Material extrusion 3D printing (ME3DP) combined with sintering is a low-cost additive manufacturing technique for fabricating components of difficult-to-print metals, such as copper, aluminum, and ceramics. However, the sintering process includes complex material science, such as volumetric shrinkage and free structural bending, to identify the relative density and deformation of a 3D printed sample. The prediction of the relative density and deformations during the sintering process provides information to the design engineer to optimize the design of the CAD model before sintering. In this study, a phenomenological model based on constitutive equations was developed to predict the density and structural deformation during the sintering process of pure copper components fabricated by ME3DP using metal injection molding feedstock. The densification rate was determined using shrinkage estimation with an isothermal stairway heating cycle in a vertical dilatometer. Furthermore, different sets of experiments were performed with a load on the probe with long isothermal heating cycles at 850, 900, 950, 1000, and 1050°C in a vertical dilatometer to estimate the axial viscosity of the copper. The constitutive equations were solved using the solid mechanics module with user-defined creep in COMSOL Multiphysics by considering isotropic assumptions. Two types of geometries, cube and overhanging I section, were used to predict shrinkage and deformation during the sintering process. The developed model successfully predicted the relative density based on shrinkage and structural deformation owing to gravity during the sintering process.