Complete Demand System Research Articles

Dynamics of food demand during political instability: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

AbstractThis study assesses the impact of two revolutions—the Tulip Revolution in 2005 and the Melon Revolution in 2010—on household food demand in Kyrgyzstan. Different categories within food products witnessed distinct adjustments in consumer demand. Employing a complete demand system and seemingly unrelated regressions with nationally representative panel data, we find that household food demand fluctuates based on pre‐conflict expectations. Despite declining total food expenditure during the first revolution and increasing in the second, the expenditure shares for staples and luxuries display heterogeneous trajectories. Food preferences shifted toward luxuries during the first revolution and staples during the second. Our findings underscore the necessity of a disaggregated perspective in understanding conflict‐induced shocks on food demand.

Methodology to Develop a Home Energy Management System Architecture

This paper is concerned in to propose a complete methodological architecture that is used to develop a complete demand system. The general methodology could be subdivided into three modules. The first module is focused on data consumption emulation, in it is implemented Monte Carlo method to generate data behavior of household appliances set over time getting a user profile. The second module is about developing a user interface that lets the user interact with the system, through the interface is possible that the user feeds the system with the features that describe the context. The interface gives feedback to the user with graphical information about consumption and a possible household appliances behavior which decrease the consumption, with that the user could get more conscious about his consumption behavior. In the third module is implemented a metaheuristic that analyzes the data consumption and searches the optimum using an objective function which is obtained from a mathematical model. The mathematical model contemplates how household appliances consume.

COVID-19 water and electricity subsidies in Ghana: How do the poor benefit?

This paper investigates the extent of welfare distribution amongst households in Ghana due to the government's subsidies on electricity and water as part of its relief package to households on the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study seeks to induce policy discussions on effective targeting and the consequential welfare distribution of subsidy interventions in Ghana. Subsidising the price of basic household necessities is expected to immensely benefit the poor whose expenditure is largely occupied by these necessity goods, but, as pertains in developing countries, schemes for effective targeting of the poor are nearly non-existent. This mostly leads to misalignments in income redistribution that is eventually anti-poor. Data from Ghana Living Standard Survey (seventh wave) which captures household final expenditure on goods and services in 2017, including electricity and water, is used for the analysis. First, we simulate household consumption changes as a result of the pandemic on the 2017 data, using on real-time information in the course of the pandemic on household income and expenditure changes. Next, we estimate a complete demand system for all households, and their elasticities of demand for electricity, water and food using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model. Using the computed elasticities, Taylor's approximations are then used to simulate consumer welfare in the form of compensating variation (CV) from price changes due to government subsidies. Our results indicate that the imposed subsidies promote consumer welfare of all households, especially, households living in rural areas. The blanket subsidy on water better identified the poor and the lifeline households than the subsidy on electricity which had a yardstick for targeting. However, we find that the subsidies on the household utilities are regressive in the sense that lifeline consumer households and the poorest households in both urban and rural areas are rather less advantaged in welfare redistribution in both subsidies.

Estimation and Analysis of Food Demand Patterns in Vietnam

The paper analyzes food consumption patterns of Vietnamese households, using a complete demand system and socio-demographic information. Demand elasticities are estimated applying a modified Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model on the Vietnamese household survey data in 2006. The results indicate that food consumption patterns in Vietnam are affected by income, price, as well as socio-economic and geographic factors. All food has positive expenditure elasticities and negative own-price elasticities. Rice has mean expenditure elasticity of 0.36 and mean own-price elasticity of −0.80. Using the estimated elasticities, the study finds that when rice prices increase by 20 percent, average household welfare rises by 1.3 percent, yet it is important to note that the benefits and costs are not spread evenly across the population. Overall, middle-income households gain the most, while the poorest households gain the least from higher rice prices. This indicates that support programs should target the poorest quintile, especially the poor in the regions hit hardest by higher prices. More generally, our study points out that targeted food policies should be formulated based on specific food demand patterns in the groups.

Energy consumption of urban households in China

We estimate China urban household energy demand as part of a complete system of consumption demand so that it can be used in economy-wide models. This allows us to derive cross-price elasticities unlike studies which focus on one type of energy. We implement a two-stage approach and explicitly account for electricity, domestic fuels and transportation demand in the first stage and gasoline, coal, LPG and gas demand in the second stage. We find income inelastic demand for electricity and home energy, but the elasticity is higher than estimates in the rich countries. Demand for total transportation is income elastic. The price elasticity for electricity is estimated to be −0.5 and in the range of other estimates for China, and similar to long-run elasticities estimated for the U.S.

Predicting the changes in the structure of food demand in China

AbstractA complete demand system is estimated separately for urban and rural residents using a two‐stage almost ideal demand system–quadratic almost ideal demand system model and pooled provincial and time‐series data from 2000 to 2012. The estimated demand elasticities with respect to income and demographic variables are then used to predict the changes in the structure of food demand in China for the year 2030. Results of this study suggest that, as per capita incomes grow further while both urbanization and population aging continue their upward trends, the shares of expenditures on foods away from home are expected to rise while the shares of spending on foods at home would decline, and that at‐home food budget shares of grains are expected to continue decreasing whereas at‐home food budget shares of foods with animal origins and fruits would be on the rise. Thus, food security in China has been transformed into feed grain security.

The signaling effect of gasoline taxes and its distributional implications

This paper proposes and tests a better-defined interpretation of the different responses of gasoline demand to tax changes and to market-related price changes. Namely, the signaling effect of gasoline taxes is one that impacts on long-run consumer decisions in addition to the incentives provided by tax-inclusive gasoline prices. Our hypothesis is tested using a complete demand system augmented with information on gasoline taxes and fitted to household-level data from the 2006 to 2013 rounds of the US Consumer Expenditure survey. Information on gasoline taxes is found to be a significant determinant of household demand additional to tax-inclusive gasoline prices. The equity implications are examined by contrasting the incidence across income distribution of a simulated $0.22/gallon tax increase to that of a market-related price increase equal in size. The tax increase is clearly regressive, slightly more than the market-related price increase. However, regressivity is by no means a reason to give up gasoline taxes as an instrument for reducing gasoline consumption externalities. Their high effectiveness in reducing gasoline demand implies that small tax increases can substantially improve the environment while minimizing the related distributional effects. Also, gasoline taxes generate revenue that can be used to offset their regressivity.

ELASTYCZNOŚĆ POPYTU KONSUMPCYJNEGO: ESTYMACJA NA PODSTAWIE QUADRATIC ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM

This paper analyzes consumer demand using a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS), which is an extension of an Almost Ideal Demand System (a complete demand system). Complete demand system models can be used to find the relationships that are impossible to discover using single-equation models. Additionally, the QUAIDS model can be used to model a nonlinear Engel curve. The research was based on household microeconomic data collected by GUS (the Polish Central Statistical Office) in the period 1999-2015. The complete demand model has been extended by demographic variable. The results show that the QUAIDS model does not reduce to the AIDS model and is an adequate tool to analyze consumer demand.

Analysis of food demand in Vietnam and short‐term impacts of market shocks on quantity and calorie consumption

AbstractA complete demand system for Vietnam was estimated using household survey data. Results showed that demand for rice with respect to prices and expenditure is relatively inelastic compared to other foods. Demand for food in general tends to be less elastic at higher levels of income and for urban households. In the short term, a market shock such as a 10% decrease in income or a 30% increase in rice prices forces households to spend a larger portion of their expenditure on rice at the expense of other foods. Low‐income households face a higher risk of undernourishment as their daily calorie intake is more negatively affected by the shocks than high‐income households. The results suggest the importance of policies that provide necessary safety net programs for the poor.

Collective consumption: an application to the passive drinking effect

This study introduces a new collective complete demand system with individual Engel effects that is easy to estimate and permits undertaking policy analysis at the individual rather than household level. Previous estimations of collective demand were limited to single equations. The empirical application investigates the passive drinking effect, that is, whether consumption of alcohol affects the distribution of resources among household members and their level of wellbeing. The results show that a high level of alcohol consumption of one household member significantly affects the allocation of household resources and suggest thought-provoking policy implications.

The Signaling Effect of Gasoline Taxes and Its Distributional Implications

This paper proposes and tests a better defined interpretation of the different responses of gasoline demand to tax changes and to market-related price changes. Namely, the signaling effect of gasoline taxes is one that impacts on long-run consumer decisions in addition to the incentives provided by tax-inclusive gasoline prices. Our hypothesis is tested using a complete demand system augmented with information on gasoline taxes and fitted to household-level data from the 2006 to 2013 rounds of the US Consumer Expenditure survey. Information on gasoline taxes is found to be a significant determinant of household demand additional to tax-inclusive gasoline prices. The equity implications are examined by contrasting the incidence across income distribution of a simulated $0.22/gallon tax increase to that of a market-related price increase equal in size. The tax increase is clearly regressive, slightly more than the market-related price increase. However, regressivity is by no means a reason to give up gasoline taxes as an instrument for reducing gasoline consumption externalities. Their high effectiveness in reducing gasoline demand implies that small tax increases can substantially improve the environment while minimizing the related distributional effects. Also, gasoline taxes generate revenue that can be used to offset their regressivity.

A nutritional goods and a complete consumer demand system estimation for South Africa using actual price data

Empirical analysis of South African indirect tax policy reform and the welfare consequences of such reform has been limited by a lack of reliable consumer demand system estimations. One reason for potentially unreliable demand estimations is not using actual price data in estimation. In this paper, the results of a nutritional goods demand system estimation and a complete demand system estimation are reported. Both systems were estimated with the use of the quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model incorporating demographic variables and using actual price and expenditure data. Subsequent to estimations, expenditure, own and cross-price elasticities of demand were calculated for both demand systems. The coefficients estimated provided largely statistical significant results and all elasticities calculated seem plausible in sign and magnitude.

A nutritional goods and a complete consumer demand system estimation for South Africa using actual price data

Empirical analysis of South African indirect tax policy reform and the welfare consequences of such reform has been limited by a lack of reliable consumer demand system estimations. One reason for potentially unreliable demand estimations is not using actual price data in estimation. In this paper, the results of a nutritional goods demand system estimation and a complete demand system estimation are reported. Both systems were estimated with the use of the quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model incorporating demographic variables and using actual price and expenditure data. Subsequent to estimations, expenditure, own and cross-price elasticities of demand were calculated for both demand systems. The coefficients estimated provided largely statistical significant results and all elasticities calculated seem plausible in sign and magnitude.

Quantifying the economic cost of children: a note on intertemporal equivalence scales

Static economic models based on complete demand systems are inadequate for estimating unconditional equivalence scales; in order to capture the effects of demographic changes on consumer behaviour, a life-cycle dynamic model is taken into account. In literature, studies have presented and evaluated longitudinal equivalence scales and intertemporal cost of children but these cannot be applied in practice when equivalence scales are utilised in poverty or income distribution analyses. This paper proposes intratemporal equivalent income scales, which are within period index numbers incorporating intertemporal consumer behaviour.

Differential demand response to gasoline taxes and gasoline prices in the U.S.

This paper offers new evidence concerning the difference in consumers’ reactions to changes in gasoline taxes relative to market-induced changes in gasoline prices. Using microdata from the 2007 to 2009 rounds of the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey, we estimate a complete system of demand augmented with information on gasoline excise taxes. By relying on a complete system of demand, we are able to estimate elasticities that take behavioral responses into account. Crucially, the model allows gasoline taxes to affect demand in two distinct ways: through relative prices and as long-run policy signals. Different increases in gasoline taxes are considered for simulation. A 13.2¢/gallon tax increase, corresponding to a $15/tCO2 carbon tax, is found to cause, in the long run, a reduction in gasoline demand that is about seven times as big as that induced by an equal market-induced price increase. The same measure of differential demand response is derived for tax increases different in size as well as by income quintile and by region. We discuss the implications of our findings for the design of corrective taxation in the private transport sector.

Estimation and application of a complete demand system for the United Arab Emirates

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to estimate a complete demand system for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and use the estimates to evaluate the welfare impact of price inflation. Eight expenditure groups are considered: food, clothing, housing, furniture, transportation, medical care, recreation, and miscellaneous.Design/methodology/approach– Household survey data are used to estimate the elasticities separately for Emiratis and expatriates by income quintile using seemingly unrelated regression within a Linear Expenditure System that accounts for demographic variables.Findings– Welfare loss is inversely related to income quintile and is lower for Emirati households. Transportation, housing, and food are the sources of the bulk of the welfare loss. The shares of the three consumption groups, combined with their respective inelastic demands, explain why they figure prominently as the leading sources of welfare loss when their prices rise.Originality/value– First ever demand system estimated for the UAE. Welfare loss estimates provide some rational basis on which examination may be made of existing UAE policies that effect commodity prices, like price controls, and policies currently being discussed, like commodity taxation, and their distributional effects.

Ramsey prices in the Italian electricity market

In this paper, we derive optimal zonal prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market using estimation of a complete system of hourly demand in 2010–2011. In Italy, the hourly equilibrium price for all buyers is computed as a uniform average of supply zonal prices, resulting from market splitting due to line congestion. We model ex-ante individual bids expressed by heterogeneous consumers, which are distinguished by geographical zones. Using empirical estimations, we compute demand elasticity values and new zonal prices, according to a Ramsey optimal scheme. This is a new approach in the wholesale electricity market literature, as previous studies have discussed the relative merit of zonal prices, considering only the issue of line congestion. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme can improve welfare in the day-ahead Italian electricity market, with respect to both the existing uniform price scheme and the proposal to charge the existing supply zonal prices to the demand side.

Dynamic food demand in urban China

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate dynamic food demand in urban China, with use of a complete dynamic demand system – dynamic linear expenditure system-linear approximate dynamic almost ideal demand system (DLES-LA/DAIDS), which pushes forward the techniques of demand analysis. Design/methodology/approach – The authors employ a transitionary demand process and develop a new approach of complete demand system with a two-stage dynamic budgeting: a strongly separable DLES in the first stage and a LA/DAIDS in the second stage. Employing provincial aggregate data (1995-2010) from the China urban household surveys, The authors estimated the demand elasticities for primary food products in urban China. Findings – The results indicate that most primary food products are necessities and price inelastic for urban households in China. The authors also found that the dynamic model tends to yield relatively smaller expenditure elasticities in magnitude than the static models do due to the friction effect of dynamic adjusting costs, such as habit formation, switching costs, and learning process. However, the dynamic effects on own price elasticities are inconclusive due to the add-up restriction. Practical implications – The research contributes to the demand analysis methodologically, and can be used for better projections in policy simulation models. Originality/value – This paper methodologically relaxes the restrictive assumption of instant adjustment in static models and allows consumers to make a dynamic decision in food consumption. Empirically, the authors introduce a new complete dynamic demand model and carry out a case study with the use of urban household data in China.

Overreaction to Excise Taxes: The Case of Gasoline

In this paper we contribute new results on the different consumers’ reaction to tax or price changes. We separately compute the compensated gasoline retail price elasticity and the gasoline tax elasticity and show that consumers overreact to taxes as compared to price variations. A novel element in our analysis is that we compare reactions to tax-inclusive retail prices to reactions to information on excise taxes that is made available to consumers. We estimate a complete system of demand for the U.S. population of households using quarterly data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey from 2007 to 2009. Relying on a complete system of demands rather than on single equations avoids imposing an implausible separability restriction, thus allowing estimation of accurate elasticities that take behavioral responses into account, i.e. that account for the way in which consumers reallocate their expenditure on a bundle of goods after a price/tax change in one of the goods. Our analysis shows that the reaction to a gasoline tax change is, on average, about 20% stronger than the reaction to a corresponding price change. We discuss the implications of our findings for the design of energy policies.

Explaining growth in demand for dairy products in Finland: an econometric analysis

AbstractThe dairy sector represents the cornerstone of Finnish agriculture but faces new challenges linked to the decoupling of farm subsidies and abolition of milk production quotas. Because of its increasing exposure to market forces, the sector must anticipate future changes in demand and deliver precisely what Finnish consumers want. This paper contributes to that goal by analyzing retroactively the drivers of demand for dairy products over the period 1975–2010 using National Accounts Data. After presenting the evolution of consumption for dairy products, we estimate a complete system of demand for food and dairy products and use it to decompose demand growth into a substitution effect, income effect, and trend effect. The analysis points to the severity of the challenges that the sector is facing. Stagnant consumption is at least partially the result of continuous but adverse taste changes, and as Finnish consumers grow more prosperous, they allocate an increasingly smaller share of their food budget...