International Trade Competitiveness Research Articles

International application of global forest product model and the reference to China

PurposeThis article summarizes the international scientific research output of global forest product models, infers future research trends and provides reference for quantitative analysis and mathematical modeling of Chinese forest product problems, with the aim of contributing to promoting domestic production of Chinese forest products and strengthening international trade competitiveness of forest products.Design/methodology/approachIn 1999, Joseph Buongiorno, a scholar at the University of Wisconsin in the United States of America, proposed the global forest products model (GFPM), which was first applied to research in the global forestry sector. GFPM is a recursive dynamic model based on five assumptions: macroeconomics, local equilibrium, dynamic equilibrium, forest product conversion flow and trade inertia. Using a certain year from 1992 to present as the base period, it simulates and predicts changes in prices, production and import and export trade indicators of 14 forest products in 180 countries (regions) through computer programs. Its advantages lie in covering a wide range of countries and a wide variety of forest products. The data mainly include forest resource data, forest product trade data, and other economic data required by the model, sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the World Bank, respectively.FindingsCompared to international quantitative and modeling research in the field of forest product production and trade, China's related research is not comprehensive and in-depth, and there is not much quantitative and mathematical modeling research, resulting in a significant gap. This article summarizes the international scientific research output of global forest product models, infers future research trends, and provides reference for quantitative analysis and mathematical modeling of Chinese forest product problems, with the aim of contributing to promoting domestic production of Chinese forest products and strengthening international trade competitiveness of forest products.Originality/valueOn the basis of summarizing and analyzing the international scientific research output of GFPM, sorting out the current research status and progress at home and abroad, this article discusses potential research expansion directions in 10 aspects, including the types, yield and quality of domestic forest product production, international trade of forest products, and external impacts on the forestry system, in order to provide new ideas for global forest product model research in China.

Nexus Between Financial Liberalisation and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1987-2022)

This study examines the influence of banking sector liberalization on economic growth (GDP) in Nigeria by employing the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach. Findings from the study show a positive association between the measurement of financial deepening (FD); which implies that greater financial liberalization (FLB) aligns with GDP. A more robust domestic currency results in diminished GDP. The result further indicates a positive correlation between FDM and GDP signifying that a unit increase in FDM results in a 0.012070 unit increase in GDP, a unit increase in exchange rate (EXR), leads to a decrease of 4,705.546 unit in GDP and a unit increase in inflation (INF) leads to 5,428.744 unit increase in GDP. Therefore, the study recommends that it is essential to maintain a balanced approach to EXR management and policies should aim for stability to support GDP while considering the impact on international trade competitiveness.

Research on the mechanism and policies of polycentric agglomeration for promoting the upgrading of China's position in the global production value chain

Recently, with the increasing trend of anti-globalization, China's manufacturing industry has encountered instability in the supply of upstream products in international trade, a challenge that has given rise to an urgent demand for ways to improve China's position in the global production chain. In response to this challenge, the 14th Five-Year Plan puts forward the strategic goal of building multi-level, multi-node, networked city clusters and trade powerhouses, which provides new development opportunities for China to strengthen its position in the global production chain through the model of polycentric agglomeration. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of polycentric agglomeration on the position of enterprises in the global production chain, this project will use the instrumental variable estimation method to conduct an empirical study. This method can help us accurately identify the causal relationship between polycentric agglomeration and global production chain position and assess the differential impact of different agglomeration patterns on firms' production chain position. Through this study, we expect to reveal how polycentric agglomeration can enhance firms' global production chain positions through mechanisms such as optimizing resource allocation, promoting technological innovation, and strengthening industrial chain synergies. In addition, we plan to explore the impact of polycentric agglomeration on the evolution of firms' roles in global value chains and on international trade competitiveness. The objective of this study is to provide targeted recommendations for policymakers and enterprises to help them achieve high-quality development of China's manufacturing industry by optimizing the structure of polycentric agglomeration in the context of global production chain restructuring. Through this comprehensive study, we expect to provide scientific decision support and action guidelines for China's sustainable upgrading and competitiveness enhancement in global production chains.

Market Diversification and Competitiveness of Fresh Grape Exports in Peru

Global trade and globalization have driven growth and diversification in the horticultural industry. Fresh grapes, a key product, face challenges of market volatility, trade barriers, and logistics. Market diversification is essential for stability and competitiveness in international trade. This research focused on analyzing market diversification in Peru’s fresh grape exports during the 2013–2022 period, exploring its implications for international trade. A quantitative methodology was used, along with the analysis of publicly recorded data on the website of the National Superintendence of Customs and Tax Administration, specifically exports from companies shipping under the national subheading for Grapes (0806.10.00.00). Diversification was analyzed using the Herfindahl–Hirschman concentration index (HHI), and competitiveness through the Balassa index. The main findings were that between 2013 and 2022, Peruvian grape exports grew in value (CAGR of 12.02%) and volume (CAGR of 12.13%). The sector expanded with an average of 151.2 companies and 59.1 destination markets. Diversification varied: the USA (12.4%), the Netherlands (1.6%), Hong Kong (4.2%), and Mexico (63.2%). The Herfindahl–Hirschman index showed concentration in the USA (4533 in 2020, 4519 in 2022) and stability in companies (2318 in 2014, 2450 in 2022). Finally, it is recommended to strengthen the Peruvian viticultural sector by maintaining geographic diversification through policies seeking new markets, monitoring global trends, constantly analyzing market concentration, and promoting fair competition among participating companies, allowing new ones to enter this sector.

Analysis of Regional Competitiveness of China’s Cross-Border E-Commerce

Cross-border e-commerce is a pivotal component of the digital economy, serving as a crucial gauge for regional competitiveness in digital transformation and international trade. This study employs the Groundings-Enterprises-Markets (GEM) model, factor analysis, and the entropy weight method to evaluate the regional competitiveness of cross-border e-commerce in China. Analyzing data from 2018 to 2021 across 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, the research assesses competitiveness through basic, enterprise, and market factors. Findings reveal annual improvement in China’s overall cross-border e-commerce competitiveness, yet notable regional disparities persist, with the east outpacing the west. Guangdong Province emerges as a key player and leader when the regions are classified into three tiers. Key factors influencing competitiveness include the digital economy development index, the number of cross-border e-commerce pilot zones, R&D expenditures, cross-border enterprise competitiveness, and core enterprise scale. The study concludes with policy recommendations, emphasizing digital reform, logistics efficiency enhancement, and the promotion of digital technologies.

The Relationship between Oil Prices and Inflation in Oil İmporting Countries (1980-2022)

The increase in the price of oil, which is an important input in production, decreases the level of output, causes cost inflation and generally affects the economy negatively. In oil-importing countries, it leads to an increase in costs and a decrease in competitiveness in international trade, thus negatively affecting the balance of payments. The aim of this research is to investigate the relationships between oil price and inflation by using quarterly data between 1980Q1:2022Q4 in oil importing countries. In addition, it is aimed to determine the contribution of the GDP and unemployment rate variables, which are widely used in explaining inflation, as well as the inflationary effects of oil prices. According to the results of the study, the effect of oil prices on inflation differs from country to country. It is observed that Italy and France are the most affected countries.

Research on the Countermeasures to Promote the Development of Education Service Trade in China

With the development of the economy, international trade globalization, and the improvement of people's living standards, coupled with the development of international trade globalization, education service trade has become an important part of the economy of various countries. Since China acceded to the WTO, the educational service trade has been effectively developed and made some achievements. It is worth mentioning that with the advent of the post-COVID-19 era, the global economy has begun to show new vitality, promoting the development of international trade in education services. Whats more, this paper uses the Porter diamond model, which facilitates the study of Chinese international education services trade competitiveness. On the basis of explaining the relevant theories of educational service trade, this paper focuses on analyzing the current situation and existing problems of educational service trade and puts forward targeted strategic choices. Finally, at the end of the thesis, there is a brief conclusion for the paper.

中国金融服务贸易竞争力之影响因素分析

Against the backdrop of economic globalization and trade liberalization, financial services, as an emerging sector, have gradually become a focal point of attention for countries around the world. The development of financial services trade has accelerated the flow of capital between nations and effectively promoted global trade as well as the development of non-trade industries. This article, based on the background of the RCEP coming into effect, conducts a comparative analysis of the financial services trade competitiveness between China and RCEP member countries, and empirically studies the factors influencing China’s financial services trade competitiveness based on Porter’s Diamond Model.
 This study first starts with the current status of financial services trade among RCEP member countries, comparing the competitiveness of China’s financial services trade with other RCEP member countries using three commonly used indicators for evaluating international trade competitiveness: market share (MS), trade competitiveness index (TC), and revealed comparative advantage index (RCA). Subsequently, based on Porter’s competitive advantage theory, an evaluation system is constructed from six aspects: factor conditions, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, government, enterprise organization strategy and competition, and opportunities. The regression model is constructed using data from 2006 to 2021 combined with the principal component analysis method to empirically analyze the factors influencing China’s financial services trade competitiveness. The analysis results show that China’s financial services trade international competitiveness is relatively weak among RCEP member countries, but it has shown a strong growth trend in recent years. The impact of fiscal policy on the competitiveness of financial services trade is the largest, followed by technological and related industry factors, while human capital has the smallest contribution to the competitiveness of financial services trade.
 Based on the research results, in the future, China should strengthen the cultivation of talents in the financial services industry, promote consumer spending in the financial services sector, increase the capital and technological content of related financial industries, expand the scale of foreign capital utilization in the financial services industry, and improve the financial regulatory system to enhance China’s international competitiveness in financial services trade.

Bàn về một số phương pháp lượng hóa rủi ro tỷ giá

Exchange rate is the price of one currency expressed in terms of another currency. The fluctuation of the exchange rate depends on both domestic factors and foreign factors, in which changes in interest rate policies of central banks become a factor that causes exchange rates to fluctuate rapidly, significantly, and unpredictably. From the beginning of 2022 up to now, inflation has been exploded all over the world, including the US, EU and developed countries, forcing central banks to apply tight monetary policies by raising interest rates. During the period from the beginning of 2022 until now, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised interest rates 8 times with a very high frequency and great intensity, causing the USD to be appreciated against most currencies, including VND. When the exchange rate fluctuates, it will affect almost all of economic activities such as import-export activities, foreign investment, international trade competitiveness, and even businesses and consumers that do not generate receipts or payments in foreign currency. Therefore, the study of measurement of exchange rate risks has become increasingly important from the perspectives of both theory and practice

Research on Legal Regulations for Facilitating Cross border Paperless Trade in China

The first comprehensive regulation of paperless trade facilitation, Framework Agreement on Facilitation of Cross-border Paperless Trade in Asia and the Pacific, came into effect on February 21, 2021. This agreement injects new vitality into China's "high-level opening up to the outside world, opening up new prospects for win-win cooperation". How to use modern information technologies such as the Internet to facilitate paperless trade, promote high-level trade development, increase trade opportunities, and enhance international trade competitiveness is worth pondering. In the process of Paperless office cross-border trade, there are difficulties such as the lack of "single window" construction, and the lack of deepening regional trade coordination and cooperation. In view of this, it is necessary to strengthen the top-level design of the legal and policy framework for paperless trade facilitation, unify cross-border data exchange standards, promote electronic data interconnection and cross-border mutual recognition, strengthen regional coordination and cooperation in paperless trade, and other relevant suggestions to promote China's high-level opening-up to the outside world.

CO2 emissions and global value chains indicators:new evidence for 1995–2018

Globalization and the configuration of production processes around Global Value Chains (GVCs) have become key factors for explaining the recent evolution of environmental and economic indicators. Indeed, previous research found evidence on the significant impact of GVCs indicators (participation and position) on CO2 emissions. Additionally, results obtained in previous literature vary depending on the time period and geographical areas considered. In this context, the main aims of this paper are to analyze the role the GVCs in explaining the evolution of CO2 emissions, and to identify possible structural breaks. This study uses the Multiregional Input-Output framework to calculate a position indicator and two different measures of participation in GVCs (interpreted either as trade openness or international competitiveness). The analysis useS Inter-Country Input-Output tables (ICIO) as main database, which includes 66 countries and 45 industries and covers the period 1995–2018. It is first concluded that upstream positions in GVCs are associated to lower global emissions. Additionally, the effect of participation depends on the measure used: trade openness is linked to lower emissions, while a higher competitiveness in international trade leads to higher emissions. Finally, two structural breaks are identified in 2002 and 2008, revealing that position is significant in the two first subperiods, while participation becomes significant from 2002 onwards. Thus, policies to mitigate CO2 emissions might to be different before and after 2008: currently, reductions in emissions can be achieved by increasing value-added embodied in trade while decreasing the volume of transactions.

Indikasi Geografis Sebagai Nilai Tambah Produk Kopi Menuju Pasar Domestik Dan Internasional

Indonesia is a country blessed with abundant natural resources. This fosters a wide variety of biological resources, thus providing a wide range of potential natural wealth in the form of agricultural, plantation, cultivation, handicraft and forestry products characterized by each region’s geographical features. The potential for coffee products to be used as Geographical Indication product is very large because there are many variants of coffee from different regions in Central Sulawesi, each having its own unique characteristics. The problem is that at this time there has been no real step taken by the parties related to the application and registration of Geographical Indications. This research aims to see how the potential of Central Sulawesi coffee products to be registered as Geographical Indications and see how the role of local government in encouraging applications and registration of geographical indications. This paper focuses on two coffee producing areas, namely Sigi Biromaru Regency and Poso Regency. The data used are primary data in the form of field observations and direct interviews and secondary data in the form of literature studies and regulations on geographical indications, then processed and analyzed using qualitative methods. Data is presented in descriptive form and conclusions are drawn using deductive logic. The result of the research is that it is time for the Central Sulawesi Government to start mapping the potential of Geographical Indication products in Central Sulawesi, especially those that have the potential to give birth to Geographical Indications, to create local product competitiveness and regional competitiveness in national and international trade.

Causal Relationship among Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Nepal: Evidence from VAR Model

This study's goal is to evaluate the causal relation among Nepal's exports, imports, and real gross domestic product. One of the most significant sources of foreign currency income that reduces the strain on the balance of payments is considered to be exports. The relationship between real GDP, exports and imports is investigated on Nepalese economy over the period 1975-2020, using yearly data. For that purpose, Vector Autoregressive model is used as there is no cointegration among variables as per Johansen's approach. Similarly variance decomposition test is also conducted. Findings confirm the presence of relationship among Real GDP, exports and imports. The results of VAR granger causality test shows that surprisingly export doesn't cause real GDP and import whereas import causes real GDP. Similarly, real GDP causes export, and import also causes export. But there is no bi-directional causality between the variables. Nepal will gain from raising its international trade competitiveness to reduce current account deficits. Prioritizing research and development and producing export goods with high value added by focusing on science and technology are the simplest ways to do this. Similarly, in order to raise worker productivity, which will immediately spur economic growth and raise living standards in Nepal, there is a need to increase technology imports.

Research on the International Competitiveness of China’s Financial Services Trade

With the continuous development of benefits, China is slowly moving towards the era of service economy, and the service industry occupies an increasingly large position in our country's national economy, which also promotes the existence of weak industries in our country's international service trade competitiveness. As a kind of our country's service industry, financial service trade still has a big gap with other countries in terms of international competitiveness. Financial service trade is one of our country's comparative advantages, but with economic globalization, the connection between countries getting closer.In such an open era, factors such as the accelerated international capital flow, large capital flow, and fierce market competition have caused serious impacts to most countries in the world, and problems have arisen in the development of the domestic financial industry and the real economy industry. As a result, it will affect the overall competitiveness of the domestic financial industry, etc. These situations lead us to pay attention to some bad results brought about by financial services trade. It is necessary to analyze and study the reasons for these bad performances and give corresponding measures. This paper mainly conducts a relevant analysis from the research on the international competitiveness of China's financial services trade.

Analysis on Foreign Trade Competitiveness of Tobacco and Tobacco Substitutes in China

With the development of economy and technology in China, consumers' demand for tobacco products is rising, and the import and export trade volume of tobacco and tobacco substitutes is gradually increasing. The trade of tobacco products occupies an important position in agricultural trade. This paper collects the import and export data of tobacco and tobacco substitutes at home and abroad by searching the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, the National Bureau of Statistics database and statistical yearbook, and analyzes the trade competitiveness of tobacco and tobacco substitutes in Chapter 24 of HS classification index from 1995 to 2020 by using Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA), Revealed Competitive Comparative Advantage Index (CA), Revealed Competitive Index (RC) and Trade Competitive Index (TC), and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to improve the international trade competitiveness of tobacco products in China.

Emissions of CO2 in Europe and the Asia–pacific region: Panel data model

The rapid growth of CO2 emissions determines the problem of global warming, which has now become a severe threat to humanity. This work aimed to identify significant factors and assess their impact on CO2 emissions in Europe and the Asia–Pacific region using a panel data model. The authors have established the following factors’ influence on CO2 emissions in European countries - GDP, consumption of fossil energy resources, population, urbanization, and in the Asia–Pacific countries - GDP, population, and “green factors”. A positive coefficient before the GDP factor confirms the impact of economic growth on the amount of CO2 emissions. The authors also revealed that the “green factor” is not significant for European countries, since the development of alternative energy in Europe has reached the limit when the influence of the “green factor” significantly reduces emissions. However, for the Asia–Pacific region, as the largest region in terms of emissions, the “green factor” and the share of gas consumption had a negative impact on the dependent variable. Technological and institutional development of countries will be the main factor in determining competitiveness in international trade.

OTOMOTİV SEKTÖRÜNDE TÜRKİYE, POLONYA VE ÇEKYA’NIN REKABET GÜÇLERİNİN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye, Polonya ve Çekya’nın imalat sanayinde üretim ve ihracat bakımından nispi payları 2000 yılından itibaren giderek artan motorlu kara taşıtları sektöründeki küresel rekabet gücünün hesaplanması ve dönem içerisindeki değişmelerin karşılaştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada rekabet gücünün hesaplanmasında Balassa ve Vollrath tarafından geliştirilen iki farklı Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlük (RCA) endeksi kullanılmıştır. Analizlerde 4 hane düzeyinde Harmonize Sınıflandırma (HS4) sistemine göre derlenen 2001-2019 dönemine ait dış ticaret verileri kullanılmıştır. Otomotiv sektörü için hesaplanan RCA2 endekslerinden, Polonya’nın 2004 yılından itibaren, Türkiye ve Çekya’nın 2001 yılından itibaren rekabet gücüne kavuştuğu, RCA1 endekslerinden ise Çekya’nın Türkiye ve Polonya’dan daha yüksek bir rekabet gücüne sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Ayrıca, otomotiv sektörünün 4 haneli ürün grupları için hesaplanan RCA1 endekslerinden, Türkiye’nin orta düzeyde teknolojik donanıma sahip iki ürünün (yolcu ve eşya taşımaya mahsus taşıtlar) ihracatında Polonya ve Çekya’dan daha yüksek bir rekabet gücüne sahip olduğu, Çekya’nın ise yüksek teknolojik donanıma sahip iki ürünün (binek otomobil ve bunların aksamı ve parçaları) ihracatında orta düzeyde, ancak diğer iki ülkeden daha yüksek bir rekabet gücüne sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Diğer taraftan RCA2 endekslerine bakıldığında, Türkiye’nin eşya taşımaya mahsus taşıtların ihracatında Polonya ve Çekya’dan daha yüksek bir rekabet gücüne sahip olduğu, Çekya’nın ise binek otomobil ihracatında Türkiye ve Polonya’dan daha yüksek bir rekabet gücüne sahip olduğu görülmektedir.

Analysis of International Trade Competitiveness of Small Commodities Based on Numerical Simulation Algorithm

In order to improve the analysis effect of the international trade competitiveness of small commodities, this study combines the digital simulation algorithm to analyze the competitiveness of international trade of small commodities and builds a competitiveness analysis model. Furthermore, this study summarizes several main factors that affect energy resolution, presents methods to provide energy resolution, and discusses methods for reducing noise from both analog and digital perspectives. In addition, this study gives the design principle and implementation method of the FIR digital filter, which provides theoretical support for digital signal processing design. Through the data analysis, it can be seen that the analysis model of the international trade competitiveness of small commodities based on the numerical simulation algorithm proposed in this study has a good performance in the analysis of the competitiveness of international trade of small commodities.

Forecasting countries' gross domestic product from patent data

Recent strides in economic complexity have shown that the future economic development of nations can be predicted with a single “economic fitness” variable, which captures countries' competitiveness in international trade. The predictions by this low-dimensional approach could match or even outperform predictions based on much more sophisticated methods, such as those by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, all prior works in economic complexity aimed to quantify countries' fitness from World Trade export data, without considering the possibility to infer countries' potential for growth from alternative sources of data. Here, motivated by the long-standing relationship between technological development and economic growth, we aim to forecast countries' growth from patent data. Specifically, we construct a citation network between countries from the European Patent Office (EPO) dataset. Initial results suggest that the H-index centrality in this network is a potential candidate to gauge national economic performance. To validate this conjecture, we construct a two-dimensional plane defined by the H-index and GDP per capita, and use a forecasting method based on dynamical systems to test the predicting accuracy of the H-index. We find that the predictions based on the H-index-GDP plane outperform the predictions by IMF by approximately 35%, and they marginally outperform those by the economic fitness extracted from trade data. Our results could inspire further attempts to identify predictors of national growth from different sources of data related to scientific and technological innovation.

Competitiveness in International Trade Through Foreign Trade Policy

Competitiveness in International Trade Through Foreign Trade Policy