Competing Risk Regression Analysis Research Articles

The Toulouse algorithm identifies patients with increased risk of cardiac decompensation only in patients with TIPS for refractory ascites

Introduction and ObjectivesTIPS placement is an effective, possibly life-saving, treatment for complications of portal hypertension. The pressure shift induced by the stent can lead to cardiac decompensation (CD). We investigated the incidence of CD, possible variables associated with CD and the validity of the Toulouse algorithm for risk prediction of CD post-TIPS. Patients and MethodsA total of 106 patients receiving TIPS for variceal bleeding (VB, 41.5%) or refractory ascites (RA, 58.5%) with available echocardiography and NT-proBNP results were included and retrospectively reviewed. Development of CD between time of TIPS placement and occurrence of liver transplantation, death or loss-to-follow-up was recorded. Competing risk regression analysis was performed to assess which baseline variables predicted occurrence of CD post-TIPS. ResultsA total of 12 patients (11.3%) developed CD after a median of 11.5 days (IQR 4 to 56.5) post-TIPS. Multivariate regression showed age (HR 1.06, p = 0.019), albumin (HR 1.10, p = 0.009) and NT-proBNP (HR 1.00, p = 0.023) at baseline predicted CD in the RA group. No clear predictors were found in those receiving TIPS for VB. Correspondingly, the Toulouse algorithm successfully identified patients at risk for CD, however only in the RA population (zero risk 0% vs. low risk 12.5% vs. high risk 35.3% with CD; p = 0.003). ConclusionsCD is not an infrequent complication post-TIPS occurring in 1/10 patients. The Toulouse algorithm can identify patients at risk of CD, though only in patients receiving TIPS for RA. Allocation to the high-risk category warrants close monitoring but should not preclude TIPS placement.

The Italian experience on liver transplantation for unresectable peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma: a national survey and future perspectives.

Liver transplantation (LT) was considered an ineffective treatment for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) until the successful experience of the Mayo Clinic, proposing a protocol with strict inclusion criteria and neoadjuvant radio-chemotherapy. Since 2015, pCCA is considered an indication for LT in Italy only in the context of controlled prospective studies. We performed a survey among the 22 Italian Liver Transplant Centers to assess the results of LT for pCCA. Eight centers reported 53 cases from 1986 to 2021 (Bologna 12, Padova 10, Niguarda 10, Milano Tumori 8, Torino 5, Pisa 4, Ancona 2, Modena 2). Patients were divided according to whether they recieved neoadjuvant radio-chemotherapy (Group 1, 25 cases) or not (Group 2, 28 cases). Eleven patients were transplanted without neoadjuvant treatment after 2015. Overall survival at 1, 3 and 5years was 83.8%, 56.6% and 50.6% in Group 1 and 72.4%, 41.4% and 35.5% in Gropu 2 (p = 0.13). Recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5years was 91.2%, 61.1% and 47.2% in Group 1 and 58.2%, 42.2%, and 36.1% in Group 2 (p = 0.16). A competing risk regression analysis showed a 5-year risk of cancer-related death of 19% for patients in Group 1 against 62.3% in Group 2, with a hazard ratio of 0.31 (95%CI [0.10-0.98], p 0.047). This survey promoted a discussion about the limitations of the Mayo protocol and set the basis for the adoption of a new nationwide protocol (LITHALICA-NCT06125769), having the same inclusion criteria but proposing standard of care chemotherapy as neoadjuvant regimen.

Reappraisal of tacrolimus levels after liver transplant for HCC: A multicenter study toward personalized immunosuppression regimen.

Post-liver transplant (LT) immunosuppression is necessary to prevent rejection; however, a major consequence of this is tumor recurrence. Although recurrence is a concern after LT for patients with HCC, the oncologically optimal tacrolimus (FK) regimen is still unknown. This retrospective study included 1406 patients with HCC who underwent LT (2002-2019) at 4 US institutions using variable post-LT immunosuppression regimens. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed to investigate the influences of post-LT time-weighted average FK (TWA-FK) level on HCC recurrence. A competing risk analysis was employed to evaluate the prognostic influence of TWA-FK while adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics. The AUC for TWA-FK was greatest at 2 weeks (0.68), followed by 1 week (0.64) after LT. Importantly, this was consistently observed across the institutions despite immunosuppression regimen variability. In addition, the TWA-FK at 2 weeks was not associated with rejection within 6 months of LT. A competing risk regression analysis showed that TWA-FK at 2 weeks after LT is significantly associated with recurrence (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.21-1.41, p < 0.001). The TWA-FK effect on recurrence varied depending on the exposure level and the individual's risk of recurrence, including vascular invasion and tumor morphology. Although previous studies have explored the influence of FK levels at 1-3 months after LT on HCC recurrence, this current study suggests that earlier time points and exposure levels must be evaluated. Each patient's oncological risk must also be considered in developing an individualized immunosuppression regimen.

Comparative Cardiovascular Risks of Radical Prostatectomy and External Beam Radiation Therapy in Early-Stage Prostate Cancer: A Comprehensive Retrospective Analysis.

The risk of cardiac disease mortality has recently become a focal point of concern within the medical community for patients with prostate cancer (PCa). Given that radical prostatectomy (RP) and external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) are the main treatment modalities for localized PCa, their specific impact on cardiovascular-specific mortality (CSM) remains unclear. This study explored the specific effects of RP and EBRT on CSM risk to guide clinical treatment decisions. Data from patients aged 45-74years, who were diagnosed with T1-2N0M0 stage PCa from the SEER database (2010-2015), were used. Multivariate statistical methods, including propensity score matching (PSM), competing risk regression, COX regression analysis, and Fine-Gray testing, were applied to assess the impact of RP and EBRT on CSM risk. Among 146,082 T1-2 stage PCa patients, cardiac disease emerged as the primary cause of death, surpassing PCa itself. Multifactorial COX regression and competing risk regression analyses indicated that local treatments do not increase CSM risk. Further analysis revealed a significant increase in CSM risk for patients undergoing only EBRT compared with those undergoing only RP (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.96-3.74, P < 0.001), with subsequent PSM adjustment, further confirming a significantly reduced risk in the RP treatment group (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.13-0.40, P < 0.001). T1-2 stage PCa patients face a significant risk of CSM, with RP offering a potential advantage over EBRT in reducing this risk. These findings encourage clinicians to comprehensively consider the potential impact on cardiac health when formulating treatment plans, providing crucial guidance for optimizing treatment strategies.

The Impact of Radical Prostatectomy Versus Radiation Therapy on Cancer-Specific Mortality for Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer: Analysis of an Other-Cause Mortality Matched Cohort

IntroductionStudies comparing radical prostatectomy (RP) to radiation therapy (RT) have consistently shown that patients undergoing RT have a higher risk of other-cause mortality (OCM) compared to RP, signifying poor health status of the former patients. We aimed to evaluate the impact of RP versus RT on cancer-specific mortality (CSM) over a cohort with equivalent OCM risk. Patients and MethodsThe SEER database was queried to identify patients with nonmetastatic PCa between 2004 and 2009. Patients were matched based on their calculated 10-year OCM risk and further stratified for D'Amico Risk Score and Gleason Grade. A Cox-regression model was used to calculate the 10-year OCM risk. Propensity-score based on the calculated OCM risk were used to match RP and RT patients. Cumulative incidence curves and Competing-risk regression analyses were used to examine the impact of treatment on CSM in the matched cohort. ResultsWe identified 55,106 PCa patients treated with RP and 36,674 treated with RT. After match, 6,506 patients were equally distributed for RT versus RP, with no difference in OCM rates (P = .2). The 10-year CSM rates were 8.8% versus 0.6% (P = .01) for RT versus RP in patients with unfavorable-intermediate-risk (Gleason Score 4 + 3) and 7.9% versus 3.9% (P = .003) for high-risk disease. There was no difference in CSM among RT and RP patients for favorable-intermediate-risk (Gleason Score 3 + 4) and low-risk disease. ConclusionsIn a matched cohort of PCa patients with comparable OCM between the 2 arms, RP yielded a more favorable CSM rate compared to RT only for unfavorable-intermediate- and high-risk groups.

Low body mass index and risk of mortality after mitral transcatheter edge-to-edge repair procedure: The "obesity paradox".

Most patients undergoing the mitral transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER) technique are elderly comorbid patients. Low body mass index (BMI) < 23 kg/m2 has been identified in other elderly populations as a risk factor, but has not been studied sufficiently in mitral TEER. We aimed to study the impact of low BMI (23 kg/m2) on the outcome after mitral TEER. Patients undergoing first-time TEER for mitral regurgitation at a single tertiary center were included, with the exclusion of patients with preprocedural hemodynamic instability or missing BMI. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints were long-term major bleeding or admission with heart failure. A total of 120 patients (mean age 76 ± 10 years, 76% men) were included in the study. Thirty-nine (31%) had low BMI. Patients with low BMI had a similar symptomatic benefit as patients with BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2 at 1 year regarding decrease in diuretics dose and decrease in New York Heart Association(NYHA)class (p > 0.05). In a multivariable Cox regression analysis, BMI as a continuous variable (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.93 [95% confidence interval, CI: 0.87-0.99],p = 0.03) and low BMI (HR: 1.99 [95% CI: 1.12-3.52], p = 0.02) were associated with the primary outcome. Low BMI was not significantly associated with major bleeding (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR]:2.39 [95% CI: 0.96-5.97], p = 0.06) or admission with heart failure (SHR: 1.06 [95% CI: 0.61-1.88], p = 0.83) during follow-up with univariable competing risk regression analysis. Low BMI is a risk factor for mortality after mitral valve TEER, confirming the presence of an "obesity paradox" in this population and should receive attention in patient selection.

Impact of Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening Pattern on Prostate Cancer Mortality Among Non-Hispanic Black and Non-Hispanic White Men: A Large, Urban Health System Cohort Analysis.

Randomized studies assessing the effect of PSA screening on mortality in non-Hispanic Black (NHB) men are lacking. We aimed to assess the association between PSA screening and survival among NHB men in comparison to non-Hispanic White (NHW) men in a racially diverse real-world North American population. The study cohort included 6378 men who self-identified as NHB or NHW and were diagnosed with prostate cancer (PCa). Patients received PSA screening and subsequent PCa treatment and follow-up at our institution. Patients were sorted based on PSA testing intensity for the 5 years prior to diagnosis, as follows: never, some (<1 test/y), and annual testing (1 test/y). The primary outcome was risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). Competing risk cumulative incidence curves estimated PCSM rates. Competing risk regression analyses examined the impact of PSA testing on PCSM. An interaction term was incorporated to assess the impact of race on the outcome. Median (IQR) age and PSA at diagnosis were 67 (60-73) years and 5.8 (4.4-9.6) ng/mL, respectively, and 2929 (46%) men were NHB (Kruskal-Wallis P values < .001). Annual PSA testing was more frequent in NHW (5%) than in NHB (3%) men (χ2 P value < .001). On cumulative incidence analysis, in the never, some, and annual PSA testing groups, the 10-year PCSM was respectively 12.3%, 5.8%, and 4.6% in NHW and 18.5%, 7%, and 1.2% in NHB patients (Gray's test P values < .001). At competing risk regression, PSA screening rate was associated with more favorable PCSM rates (HR: 0.47; 95% CI 0.33-0.68; P < .001). The interaction term for race did not show statistical significance (P = .2). PSA testing was associated with a reduced risk of PCSM in both NHB and NHW men diagnosed with PCa. Additionally, the positive impact of the screening rate seemed to be independent of race.

Favorable prostate-specific antigen levels correlate with a worse prognosis in high-grade prostate cancer: a population-based analysis.

To compare the association between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and the effectiveness of local treatment in patients with high-grade and low-grade prostate cancer (PCa). This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients diagnosed with clinically localized PCa (cT1-4N0M0) from January 2010 to December 2020 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Fine-Gray competing risk regression analysis was conducted to generate cumulative incidence plots and estimate the hazards ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of PCSM. Multivariable restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis was used to examine the non-linear associations of continuous values of PSA levels with PCSM. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was employed to minimize imbalances in baseline characteristics between different local treatment cohorts. A total of 392083 eligible patients were included in the study, including 327659 low-grade (Gleason score [GS]≤7) PCa and 64424 high-grade (GS≥8) PCa. In multivariate Fine-Gray competing risk regression analysis, using PSA levels of 4.1-10.0ng/ml as the reference, the adjusted HR among high-grade patients with PSA levels ≤2.5ng/ml, 2.6-4.0ng/ml, 10.1-20.0ng/ml and >20.0ng/ml were 1.988 (95% CI=1.677-2.358), 1.411 (95% CI=1.194-1.668), 1.472 (95% CI=1.351-1.603) and 2.506 (95% CI=2.318-2.709), respectively. Among low-grade PCa, the adjusted HR were 0.985 (95% CI=0.800-1.213), 0.727 (95% CI=0.602-0.877), 1.844 (95% CI=1.679-2.026) and 3.574 (95% CI=3.220-3.966), respectively. Multivariable-adjusted RCS analysis showed a U/J-shaped distribution relationship between PSA levels and PCSM in high-grade PCa, while there was a positive association between PSA levels and PCSM in low-grade PCa. As for local treatment effectiveness, radiation therapy (RT) provided better control of PCSM compared to radical prostatectomy (RP) and RP+RT in high-grade PCa, while RP provided better control of PCSM compared to RT and RP+RT in low-grade PCa. Low PSA level (≤2.5ng/ml) is significantly associated with very high risk of PCSM in high-grade localized PCa but not in low-grade localized PCa. High-grade localized PCa patients benefit more from RT in terms of PCSM control, while low-grade localized PCa patients benefit more from RP. High-grade localized PCa with low PSA level may be a unique subgroup that could benefit from novel risk stratification strategies in PCa, which requires further studies to investigate the potential of developing novel therapeutic strategies, prognostic tools, and clinical management approaches.

Influence of intraoperative blood salvage and autotransfusion on tumor recurrence after deceased donor liver transplantation: a large nationwide cohort study.

The practice of intraoperative blood salvage and autotransfusion (IBSA) during deceased donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can potentially reduce the need for allogeneic blood transfusion. However, implementing IBSA remains debatable due to concerns about its possible detrimental effects on oncologic recurrence. This study retrospectively enrolled nationwide recipients of deceased donor liver transplantation for HCC between 2015 and 2020. The focus was on comparing the cumulative recurrence rate and the recurrence-free survival rate. Propensity score matching was conducted repeatedly for further subgroup comparison. Recipients were categorized based on the Milan criteria, macrovascular invasion, and pretransplant α-Fetoprotein (AFP) level to identify subgroups at risk of HCC recurrence. A total of 6196 and 329 patients were enrolled in the non-IBSA and IBSA groups in this study. Multivariable competing risk regression analysis identified IBSA as independent risk factors for HCC recurrence ( P <0.05). Postmatching, the cumulative recurrence rate and recurrence-free survival rate revealed no significant difference in the IBSA group and non-IBSA group (22.4 vs. 16.5%, P =0.12; 60.3 vs. 60.9%, P =0.74). Recipients beyond Milan criteria had higher, albeit not significant, risk of HCC recurrence if receiving IBSA (33.4 vs. 22.5%, P =0.14). For recipients with macrovascular invasion, the risk of HCC recurrence has no significant difference between the two groups (32.2 vs. 21.3%, P =0.231). For recipients with an AFP level <20ng/ml, the risk of HCC recurrence was comparable in the IBSA group and the non-IBSA group (12.8 vs. 18.7%, P =0.99). Recipients with an AFP level ≥20ng/ml, the risk of HCC recurrence was significantly higher in the IBSA group. For those with an AFP level ≥400ng/ml, the impact of IBSA on the cumulative recurrence rate was even more pronounced (49.8 vs. 21.9%, P =0.011). IBSA does not appear to be associated with worse outcomes for recipients with HCC exceeding the Milan criteria or with macrovascular invasion. IBSA could be confidently applied for recipients with a pretransplant AFP level <20ng/ml. For recipients with AFP levels ≥20ng/ml, undertaking IBSA would increase the risk of HCC recurrence.

Geriatric conditions and healthcare utilization among older adults living in subsidized housing.

Nearly 2.9 million older Americans with lower incomes live in subsidized housing. While regional and single-site studies show that this group has higher rates of healthcare utilization compared to older adults in the general community, little is known about healthcare utilization nationally nor associated risk factors. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 enrolled in the National Health and Aging Trends Study in 2011, linked to Medicare claims data, including individuals living in subsidized housing and the general community. Participants were followed annually through 2020. Outcomes were hospitalization, short-term skilled nursing facility (SNF) utilization, long-term care utilization, and death. Fine-Gray competing risks regression analysis was used to assess the association of subsidized housing residence with hospitalization and nursing facility utilization, and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to assess the association with death. Among 6294 participants (3600 women, 2694 men; mean age, 75.5 years [SD, 7.0]), 295 lived in subsidized housing at baseline and 5999 in the general community. Compared to older adults in the general community, those in subsidized housing had a higher adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] of hospitalization (sHR 1.21; 95% CI, 1.03-1.43), short-term SNF utilization (sHR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.15-1.92), and long-term care utilization (sHR 2.72; 95% CI, 1.67-4.43), but similar hazard of death (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.69-1.08). Individuals with functional impairment had a higher adjusted subdistribution hazard of hospitalization and short-term SNF utilization and individuals with dementia and functional impairment had a higher hazard of long-term care utilization. Older adults living in subsidized housing have higher hazards of hospitalization and nursing facility utilization compared to those in the general community. Housing-based interventions to optimize aging in place and mitigate risk of nursing facility utilization should consider risk factors including functional impairment and dementia.

Automated titanium fastener for surgical aortic valve replacement-preventive role for infective endocarditis?

Evidence on long-term clinical outcomes considering suture-securing techniques used for surgical aortic valve replacement is still uncertain. A total of 1405 patients who underwent surgical aortic valve replacement between January 2016 and December 2022 were included and grouped according to the suture-securing technique used (automated titanium fastener versus hand-tied knots). The occurrence of infective endocarditis during follow-up was set as the primary study end-point. As secondary study end-points, stroke, all-cause mortality, and a composite outcome of either infective endocarditis, stroke, or all-cause mortality were assessed. The automated titanium fastener was used in 829 (59%) patients, whereas the hand-knot tying technique was used in 576 (41%) patients. The multivariable proportional competing risk regression analysis showed a significantly lower risk of infective endocarditis during follow-up in the automated titanium fastener group (adjusted sub-hazard ratio 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.20-0.94, p = 0.035). The automated titanium fastener group was not associated with an increased risk of mortality or attaining the composite outcome, respectively (adjusted hazard ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.60-1.09, p = 0.169), (adjusted hazard ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.63-1.07, p = 0.152). This group was not associated with an increased risk of stroke (adjusted sub-hazard ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.47-1.45, p = 0.504). Also, a significantly lower rate of early-onset infective endocarditis was observed in the automated titanium fastener group, (0.4% vs 1.4%, p = 0.032). Suture-securing with an automated titanium fastener device appears to be superior compared to the hand-knot tying technique in terms of lower risk of infective endocarditis.

Association of Pringle maneuver with postoperative recurrence and survival following hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter propensity score and competing-risks regression analysis.

The application of Pringle maneuver (PM) during hepatectomy reduces intraoperative blood loss and the need for perioperative transfusion, but its effect on long-term recurrence and survival for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. We sought to determine the association between the application of PM and post-hepatectomy oncologic outcomes for patients with HCC. Patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for HCC at 9 Chinese hospitals from January 2010 to December 2018 were identified. Using two propensity score methods [propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weight (IPTW)], cumulative recurrence rate and cancer-specific mortality (CSM) were compared between the patients in the PM and non-PM groups. Multivariate competing-risks regression models were performed to adjust for the effect of non-cancer-specific mortality and other prognostic risk factors. Of the 2,798 included patients, 2,404 and 394 did and did not adopt PM (the PM and non-PM groups), respectively. The rates of intraoperative blood transfusion, postoperative 30-day mortality and morbidity were comparable between the two groups (all P>0.05). In the PSM cohort by the 1:3 ratio, compared to 382 patients in the non-PM group, 1,146 patients in the PM group also had the higher cumulative 5-year recurrence rate and CSM (63.9% and 39.1% vs. 55.3% and 31.6%, both P<0.05). Similar results were also yielded in the entire cohort and the IPTW cohort. Multivariate competing-risks regression analyses demonstrated that no application of the PM was independently associated with lower recurrence rate and CSM based on various analytical cohorts [hazard ratio (HR), 0.82 and 0.77 in the adjusted entire cohort, HR 0.80 and 0.73 in the PSM cohort, and HR 0.80 and 0.76 in the IPTW cohort, respectively]. The findings suggested that no application of PM during hepatectomy for patients with HCC reduced the risk of postoperative recurrence and cancer-specific death by approximately 20-25%.

Right Bundle Branch Block Predicts Appropriate Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator Therapies in Patients with Non-Ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy and a Prophylactic Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator.

Background: The benefit of prophylactic implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) in patients with severe systolic dysfunction of non-ischemic origin is still unclear, and the identification of patients at risk for sudden cardiac death remains a major challenge. Aims/Methods: We retrospectively reviewed all consecutive patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NICM) who underwent prophylactic ICD implantation between 2008 and 2020 in two tertiary centers. Our main goal was to identify the predictors of appropriate ICD therapies (anti-tachycardia pacing [ATP] and/or shocks) in this cohort of patients. Results: A total of 224 patients were included. After a median follow-up of 51 months, 61 patients (27.2%) required appropriate ICD therapies. Patients with appropriate ICD therapies were more frequently men (87% vs. 69%, p = 0.006), of younger age (59 years, (53-65) vs. 64 years, (57-70); p = 0.02), showed more right bundle branch blocks (RBBBs) (15% vs. 4%, p = 0.007) and less left bundle branch blocks (LBBBs) (26% vs. 47%, p = 0.005) in the ECG, and had higher left ventricular end-diastolic (100 mL/m2, (90-117) vs. 86, (71-110); p = 0.011) and systolic volumes (72 mL/m2, (59-87) vs. 61, (47-81), p = 0.05). In a multivariate competing-risks regression analysis, RBBB (HR 2.26, CI 95% 1.02-4.98, p = 0.043) was identified as an independent predictor of appropriate ICD therapies. Conclusion: RBBBs may help to identify patients with NICM at high risk of ventricular arrhythmias and requiring ICD intervention.

Impact of long-term transmural plastic stents on recurrence after endoscopic treatment of walled-off pancreatic necrosis.

Endoscopic transmural drainage (ETD) using double-pigtail stents (DPSs) is a well-established treatment for walled-off pancreatic necrosis (WON). This study aimed to compare outcomes in patients undergoing ETD with DPSs left indwelling versus those where stents were removed or migrated. This retrospective multicenter cohort study included patients with WON who underwent ETD using DPSs between July 2001 and December 2019. The primary outcome was recurrence of a pancreatic fluid collection (PFC). Secondary outcomes were long-term complications and recurrence-associated factors. Competing risk regression analysis considered DPS removal or migration as time-varying covariates. Among 320 patients (median age 58; 36% women), DPSs were removed in 153 (47.8%), migrated spontaneously in 27 (8.4%), and remained indwelling in 140 (43.8%). PFC recurrence was observed in 57 patients (17.8%): after removal (n = 39; 25.5%); after migration (n = 4; 14.8%); in patients with indwelling DPSs (n = 14; 10.0%). In 25 patients (7.8%), drainage of recurrent PFC was indicated. Risk factors for recurrence were DPS removal or migration (hazard ratio [HR] 3.45, 95%CI 1.37-8.70) and presence of a disconnected pancreatic duct (HR 5.08, 95%CI 1.84-14.0). Among patients who undergo ETD of WON, leaving DPSs in situ seems to lower the risk of recurrent fluid collections, without any long-term DPS-related complications. These results suggest that DPSs should not be routinely removed and can be safely left indwelling indefinitely.

Different Patterns of Care and Survival Outcomes in Transplant-Centre Managed Patients with Early-Stage HCC: Real-World Data from an Australian Multi-Centre Cohort Study.

The management of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is complex, with multiple treatment strategies available. There is a paucity of literature regarding variations in the patterns of care and outcomes between transplant and non-transplant centres. We conducted this real-world multi-centre cohort study in two liver cancer referral centres with an integrated liver transplant program and an additional eight non-transplant HCC referral centres across Australia to identify variation in patterns of care and key survival outcomes. Patients with stage Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) 0/A HCC, first diagnosed between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2020, who were managed at a participating site, were included in the study. Patients were excluded if they had a history of prior HCC or if they received upfront liver transplantation. A total of 887 patients were included in the study, with 433 patients managed at a liver cancer centre with a transplant program (LTC) and 454 patients managed at a non-transplant centre (NTC). Management at an LTC did not significantly predict allocation to resection (adjusted OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.11, p = 0.148). However, in those not receiving resection, LTC and NTC patients were systematically managed differently, with LTC patients five times less likely to receive upfront ablation than NTC patients (adjusted OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.28, p < 0.001), even after adjusting for tumour burden, as well as for age, gender, liver disease aetiology, liver disease severity, and medical comorbidities. LTCs exhibited significantly higher proportions of patients undergoing TACE for every tumour burden category, including those with a single tumour measuring 2 cm or less (p < 0.001). Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, management at a transplant centre was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.98, p = 0.036), and competing-risk regression analysis, considering liver transplant as a competing event, demonstrated a similar reduction in risk (adjusted HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.99, p = 0.041), suggesting that the reduced risk of death is not fully explained by higher rates of transplantation. Our study highlights systematic differences in HCC care between large volume liver transplant centres and other sites, which has not previously been well-described. Further work is needed to better define the reasons for differences in treatment allocation and to aim to minimise unwarranted treatment variation to maximise patient outcomes across Australia.

Impact of OLD/Emphysema in LC Mortality Risk in Screening Programs: An Analysis of NLST and P-IELCAP

IntroductionThe impact of obstructive lung disease (OLD) and emphysema on lung cancer (LC) mortality in patients undergoing LC screening is controversial. MethodsPatients with spirometry and LC diagnosed within the first three rounds of screening were selected from the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) and from the Pamplona International Early Lung Cancer Detection Program (P-IELCAP). Medical and demographic data, tumor characteristics, comorbidities and presence of emphysema were collected. The effect of OLD and emphysema on the risk of overall survival was assessed using unadjusted and adjusted Cox models, competing risk regression analysis, and propensity score matching. ResultsData from 353 patients with LC, including 291 with OLD and/or emphysema and 62 with neither, were analyzed. The median age was 67.3 years-old and 56.1% met OLD criteria, predominantly mild (1: 28.3%, 2: 65.2%). Emphysema was present in 69.4% of the patients. Patients with OLD and/or emphysema had worse survival on univariate analysis (HR: 1.40; 95% CI: 0.86–2.31; p=0.179). However, after adjusting for LC stage, age, and sex, the HR was 1.02 (95% CI: 0.61–1.70; p=0.952). Specific LC survival between both groups showed an adjusted HR of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.47–1.72; p=0.76). Propensity score matching found no statistically significant difference in overall survival (HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.59–1.9; p=0.929). ConclusionThe survival of LC patients diagnosed in the context of screening is not negatively impacted by the coexistence of mild OLD and/or emphysema.

Systolic blood pressure and risk of cardiovascular disease in normotensive diabetic adults: a prospective cohort study.

Currently, the special blood pressure (BP) target for normotensive diabetic patients has not been recommended. We investigated the optimal systolic blood pressure (SBP) for lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in normotensive diabetic patients. In this 12-year follow-up study using the participants of the Kailuan Study, we mainly compared which SBP, 90-119 mmHg or 120-129 mmHg, had a lower risk of occurrence of CVD (stroke and myocardial infarction) in the 3072 normotensive diabetic participants and 21,532 normotensive and non-diabetic participants, respectively. The SBP was expressed as a mean time-weighted cumulative (MTWC) SBP, calculated from the multiple measurements of SBP during the follow-up. Multivariate competing risk regression analyses were used for the analysis. We found that in normotensive diabetic participants, MTWC SBP of 120-129 mmHg was associated with a lower risk of CVD (HR = 0.69 [0.50-0.95]), myocardial infarction (HR = 0.48 [0.24-0.96]), and trending towards lower risk of stroke (HR = 0.80 [0.55-1.16]), compared to MTWC SBP of 90-119 mmHg. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the relationship between low SBP and increased CVD risk. Whereas, in the normotensive and non-diabetic participants, MTWC SBP of 90-119 mmHg vs 120-129 mmHg did not exhibit any difference in the risk of CVD occurrence (HR = 0.99 [0.83-1.18]). The higher level of SBP in normotensive diabetic patients is especially associated with a lower risk of CVD occurrence.

Histologically Overt Stromal Response and the Risk of Progression after Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer.

Given the variable clinical course of prostate cancer and the limitations of current prognostic factors, this study was conducted to investigate the impact of a histologically overt stromal response (HOST-response) to prostate cancer on clinical outcomes after radical prostatectomy. This retrospective analysis utilized The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) to evaluate data from individuals with a confirmed diagnosis of prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy and had available pathology slides. These slides were assessed for the presence of a HOST-response, similar to desmoplasia. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). A multivariable competing risk regression analysis was used to assess whether a significant association existed between HOST-response and PFS, adjusting for known prostate cancer prognostic factors. Among the 348 patients analyzed, 166 (47.70%) demonstrated a HOST-response. After a median follow-up of 37.87 months (IQR: 21.20, 65.50), the presence of a HOST-response was significantly associated with a shorter PFS (SDHR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.26 to 3.50; p = 0.004), after adjusting for covariates. HOST-response in prostate cancer patients treated with radical prostatectomy is significantly associated with reduced PFS, suggesting a potential benefit from adjuvant therapy and highlighting the need for further investigation in a prospective randomized clinical trial.

Association between postoperative radiotherapy for young-onset nonsmall cell lung cancer and risk of second primary malignancies: comparative study.

The most common form of therapy for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in early stage is surgery-based combination therapy, including radiotherapy and immunotherapy. However, postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) of cancer is correlated with increasing risk of second primary malignancy (SPM), especially young-onset cancer cases. The authors aimed to quantify the risks of SPM associated with PORT treatment for young‑onset NSCLC in early stage. The authors screened for SPM that developed over 5 years since the diagnosis of NSCLC. Using the data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, PORT-correlated risks were estimated with multivariate Logistic regression analysis. Moreover, Fine-Gray's competing risk regression analysis was used to calculate the cumulative incidence of SPMs. Among the 30308 young-onset NSCLC patients in early stage undergoing surgery, a total of 3728 patients have received PORT. Logistic regression analyses showed that PORT showed substantial correlation with elevated risks of second solid malignancies [relative risks (RR)=1.31; 95% CI: 1.17-1.46], lung cancer (RR=1.23; 95% CI: 1.07-1.42), breast cancer (RR=1.74; 95% CI: 1.16-2.74), and colon and rectum cancers (RR=1.37; 95% CI: 1.07-2.06) as well as a negligible risk of second hematologic malignancies (RR=1.15; 95% CI: 0.82-1.67). The cumulative incidence of SPMs revealed similar findings. Higher RR was obtained in NSCLC patients aged 60-69 years (RR=1.33), in white race (RR=1.36), diagnosed in 1975-2000 (RR=1.23) and 2001-2015 (RR=1.40), or diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma (RR=1.55). PORT for young-onset NSCLC in early stage was correlated with elevated risks of SPMs (lung cancer, breast cancer, as well as colon and rectum cancers), supporting the need for long-term surveillance of these patients.

Post-Transplant Cardiovascular Disease in Kidney Transplant Recipients: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes in the Era of Modern Immunosuppression.

Introduction: Post-transplant cardiovascular disease (PTCVD) poses a significant challenge in kidney transplantation, potentially impacting graft outcomes and patient survival. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the incidence, risk factors, and consequential impact of PTCVD in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) devoid of pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Method: The cohort comprised 1114 KTRs, with 749 individuals included after excluding those with pre-existing CVD and early graft loss. PTCVD encompasses ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, arrhythmias, heart failure, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and valvular heart disease. Competing risk regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of PTCVD, while Cox proportional hazards analysis assessed the impact of PTCVD on graft and recipient survival. Results: The cumulative incidence of PTCVD at 5, 10, and 20 years was 5.4%, 14.3%, and 22.5%, respectively. Competing risk regression identified increased age (sub-hazard ratio [SHR], 1.22; p = 0.036) per decade, duration of dialysis (SHR, 1.07; p = 0.048) per year on dialysis, and the slope of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (SHR, 1.08; p = 0.008) mL/min/year decline as independent predictors of higher-risk PTCVD. A higher baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was protective (SHR, 0.98; p = 0.032). PTCVD was not significantly associated with death-censored graft loss (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.31; p = 0.48) but was correlated with higher all-cause graft loss (aHR, 1.71; p = 0.011) and recipient mortality (aHR, 1.97; p = 0.004). Conclusion: This study provides insights into PTCVD predictors. Although not directly associated with graft loss, PTCVD significantly correlates with heightened mortality in kidney transplant recipients, emphasizing the need for enhanced clinical management and surveillance strategies.