Competing Risk Model Research Articles

Neurobehavioral disorders among children born to mothers exposed to illicit substances during pregnancy

BackgroundExposure to illicit substances during pregnancy may have long-term impacts on children’s neurodevelopment. This study explores subsequent risks for intellectual disability, autistic disorders, and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorders in children born to mothers exposed to illicit substances before or during pregnancy.MethodsWe identified women with illicit drug use by linking the police records from the “Substance Abuse Control Databases” and Taiwan Birth Registration and Birth Notification records from 2004 to 2014. Children whose mothers that had exposed to illicit substances during pregnancy identified from the police records were the “substance-exposed cohort.” A 1:1 ratio exact-matched comparison cohort based on child’s gender, child’s birth year, mother’s birth year, and child’s first use of the health insurance card, as well as a “propensity score (PS)-matched” comparison cohort of children born by substance-unexposed mothers, was established. Multivariate Cox regression analyses with competing risk models were performed.ResultsHigher incidences of intellectual disability (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15–5.03) and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (aHR = 2.35, 95% CI: 1.63–3.28) were found in children prenatally exposed to illicit substances during pregnancy compared to exact-matched non-exposed cohorts. Adjusted risks of ADHD were significantly higher in mothers exposed to substances during pregnancy (aHR = 1.77 (1.42–2.21)) and before pregnancy (aHR = 1.43 (1.14–1.80)) compared to PS-matched unexposed cohorts after adjusting for covariates.ConclusionsThis is one of the first studies using large population-based data linked to criminal records to reveal increased risks of intellectual disability and ADHD in children with prenatal exposure to illicit substances compared to matched unexposed controls. Our results also highlight the importance of preventive measures and interventions for the well-being of both the mother and the child.

Novel models by machine learning to predict the risk of cardiac disease-specific death in young patients with breast cancer

BackgroundWith the tremendous leap of various adjuvant therapies, breast cancer (BC)-related deaths have decreased significantly. Increasing attention was focused on the effect of cardiac disease on BC survivors, while limited existing population-based studies lay emphasis on the young age population.MethodData of BC patients aged less than 50 years was collected from the SEER database. A competing risk model was introduced to analyze the effects of clinicopathology variables on the cardiac disease-specific death (CDSD) risks of these patients. Further, an XGBoost prediction model was constructed to predict the risk of CDSD. Prediction performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, area under the POC curve (AUC) values, calibration curves, decision curves, and confusion matrix, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were used to interpret the models.ResultsOur competing risk analysis proved that young BC patients with older age, low household income, non-metropolitan residential environment, black race, unmarried status, HR + subtype, higher T stage (T2-4), receiving chemotherapy, and non-surgery are under higher risk of CDSD. Further, five machine learning models were constructed to predict the CDSD risks of young BC patients, among which the XGBoost models showed the highest AUC value (train set: AUC = 0.846; test set: AUC = 0.836). The confusion matrix of the XGBoost model demonstrated that the sensitivity, specificity, and correction were 0.81, 0.94, and 0.94 for the train set, and 0.82, 0.95, and 0.96 for the test set, respectively. The SHAP graph indicated that median household income, marital status, race, and age at diagnosis were the top four strongest predictors.ConclusionIndependent CDSD risk factors for young BC patients were identified, and machine-learning prognostic models were constructed to predict their CDSD risks. Our validation results indicated that the predicted probability of our XGBoost model agrees well with the actual CDSD risks, and it can help recognize high-risk populations and therefore develop effective cardioprotection strategies. Hopefully, our findings can support the growth of the new field of cardio-oncology.

Metformin lowers risk of hearing loss and mortality in type 2 diabetes.

To assess the association between metformin use and the risk of sudden sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL) in patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2D), a population at elevated risk for SSNHL. This cohort study utilized data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, following T2D patients from 2008 to 202 database's baseline. Metformin use was defined as achieving ≥80% of the medication possession ratio (MPR) and ≥28 cumulative defined daily doses (cDDD) within three months. The control group included patients with ≥80% MPR from other antidiabetic agents, ensuring active treatment comparability. Propensity score matching was applied to balance covariates, while competing risk models accounted for mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs), incidence rates (IRs), and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated. Metformin users demonstrated a lower SSNHL incidence (IR: 11.48 per 10,000 person-years) compared to non-users (IR: 15.66 per 10,000 person-years), with an IRR of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.66-0.82; p < 0.0001). Adjusted HRs indicated a 27% reduction in SSNHL risk (HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.66-0.82). Higher cumulative doses (Q4: HR 0.36; 95% CI: 0.29-0.46) and daily doses ≥1 DDD (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.69-0.87) were linked to further risk reductions. Metformin use was also associated with lower overall mortality. Metformin use is associated with a dose-dependent reduction in SSNHL risk and lower mortality in T2D patients. The rigorous definitions of metformin exposure and an actively treated comparator group emphasize these findings, suggesting metformin's potential role in SSNHL prevention and improved survival.

The embryo stage at fresh ET does not affect the cumulative live birth rate in women with a thin endometrium: a retrospective matched-controlled cohort study

BackgroundThe blastocyst-stage embryo has been considered more advantageous for increasing the cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) at fresh embryo transfer (ET) compared to the cleavage-stage embryo. However, it remains uncertain whether this advantage extends to specialized subpopulations, such as women with thin endometrium (TE), who are characteristic of impaired endometrial receptivity. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the difference in the CLBR between cleavage-stage and blastocyst-stage embryos at fresh ET specifically in women with TE.MethodsA retrospective cohort comprising 1089 women from three centers, ranging from September 2017 to January 2022, was established. These women were diagnosed with TE (defined as endometrium thickness &amp;lt;= 8 mm) and underwent their first fresh ET. To create a comparable cohort between the cleavage and blastocyst groups while adjusting for key covariates, the propensity score matching (PSM) method was employed. The primary outcome assessed was the CLBR per woman. Both cohorts underwent Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox proportional hazard models, cumulative incidence function (CIF) curve analysis, and Fine-Grey competing risk models to ascertain the impact of embryo stage at fresh ET on CLBR. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted within a subgroup defining thin endometrium as an endometrium thickness (EMT) &amp;lt; 7 mm.ResultsIn the matched cohort after PSM, the CLBR was comparable between groups (p=0.331). However, the cleavage-stage fresh ET was associated with an elevated risk of low birth weight (LBW) (p=0.005) and small for gestational age (SGA) (p=0.037). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the median number of embryo transfer cycles was 2 in the cleavage group and 3 in the blastocyst group. The CLBR for the cleavage group reached 78.1%, while the blastocyst group reached 60.0% after 5 cycles of embryo transfers (log-rank test, p=0.09). A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model indicated no significant association between the embryo stage at fresh ET and CLBR (HR=0.80, 95% CI=0.60-1.07). The CIF curve and Fine-Grey competing risk models demonstrated similar results. These analyses were repeated in the original cohort before PSM and in the subgroup with EMT &amp;lt; 7 mm, and the results remained robust.ConclusionFor TE women receiving fresh ET, the choice between the cleavage-stage embryo and the blastocyst-stage embryo yields comparable CLBR. However, selecting the cleavage-stage embryo is associated with increased risks of LBW and SGA births.

Association Between Triglyceride-Glucose Index and Risk of Gallstone Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study of 395 391 Individuals.

Gallstone disease (GSD) is one of the widespread gastrointestinal conditions. Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a convenient surrogate for insulin resistance, may help identify and prevent gallstones. The present study aims to conduct a longitudinal study to evaluate the association between TyG index and the risk of GSD using the UK Biobank cohort. A total of 395 391 participants in the UK Biobank (median follow-up of 12.52 years) were included. The association between TyG index and the risk of GSD was assessed through Cox models and the restricted cubic spline model, expressed by hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analysis was employed concerning age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) and also analyzed the mediating role of BMI in the effect of TyG index on incident GSD. Sensitivity analyses were further performed using a competing risks model and excluding participants who developed GSD in the first year of follow-up to test the stability of the results. The risk of developing GSD increased in the Quartiles 2, 3, and 4 compared with Quartile 1 of TyG index (adjusted HR [aHR] 1.570 [95%CI 1.303-1.893], 1.577 [1.295-1.920], 1.489 [1.181-1.878], Ptrend < 0.001 across quartiles of TyG index). The aHR for every unit and SD increment in TyG index were 1.282 [1.100-1.494], 1.151 [1.055-1.256]. The results were consistent when participants who developed GSD in the first year of follow-up were excluded. The restricted cubic spline regression also showed an increased risk of GSD with increasing TyG index. Increased TyG index is associated with an elevated risk of GSD. The TyG index might be an important indicator for identifying people at high risk of GSD.

Conditional cash transfers and mortality in people hospitalised with psychiatric disorders: A cohort study of the Brazilian Bolsa Família Programme.

Psychiatric patients experience lower life expectancy compared to the general population. Conditional cash transfer programmes (CCTPs) have shown promise in reducing mortality rates, but their impact on psychiatric patients has been unclear. This study tests the association between being a Brazilian Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) recipient and the risk of mortality among people previously hospitalised with any psychiatric disorders. This cohort study utilised Brazilian administrative datasets, linking social and health system data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort, a population-representative study. We followed individuals who applied for BFP following a single hospitalisation with a psychiatric disorder between 2008 and 2015. The outcome was mortality and specific causes, defined according to International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10). Cox proportional hazards models estimated the hazard ratio (HR) for overall mortality and competing risks models estimated the HR for specific causes of death, both associated with being a BFP recipient, adjusted for confounders, and weighted with a propensity score. We included 69,901 psychiatric patients aged between 10 and 120, with the majority being male (60.5%), and 26,556 (37.99%) received BFP following hospitalisation. BFP was associated with reduced overall mortality (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.87,0.98, p 0.018) and mortality due to natural causes (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.83, 0.96, p < 0.001). Reduction in suicide (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.68, 1.21, p = 0.514) was observed, although it was not statistically significant. The BFP's effects on overall mortality were more pronounced in females and younger individuals. In addition, 4% of deaths could have been prevented if BFP had been present (population attributable risk (PAF) = 4%, 95% CI 0.06, 7.10). BFP appears to reduce mortality rates among psychiatric patients. While not designed to address elevated mortality risk in this population, this study highlights the potential for poverty alleviation programmes to mitigate mortality rates in one of the highest-risk population subgroups.

Cumulative Incidence and Prognostic Value of Readmissions in Patients With Heart Failure: Data From a Large Cohort Study of Real Clinical Practice in St. Petersburg.

Aim To evaluate the cumulative incidence and prognostic value of rehospitalizations in patients with heart failure (HF) within one year after discharge.Material and methods The data of patients with HF hospitalized for the first time (code I50.x in the diagnosis) for the period from January 01, 2022 through February 13, 2024 were selected from the St. Petersburg Chronic Heart Failure Registry. Age and gender characteristics, comorbidities, risk of rehospitalization and death after discharge from the hospital depending on the number of rehospitalizations were analyzed. Descriptive statistics methods, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and the Fine and Gray competing risks model were used. P&lt;0.001 was considered significant.Results The study included 43,143 patients with HF who were hospitalized for the first time. During a median observation time of 242 days, 6,395 (14.8%) patients were readmitted, most often once (78.4%). A greater number of rehospitalizations was typical for men, patients with HF of ischemic genesis, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, obstructive pulmonary diseases, and a history of COVID-19. The cumulative incidence of rehospitalizations for HF during 1, 3, 6, and 12 months was 3.2%, 7.0%, 10.8%, and 17.2%, respectively, taking into account the competing risk of death. With an increasing number of hospitalizations, the median time to the next hospitalization decreased, and the risk of readmission increased (p&lt;0.001). The probability of death within a year of the index hospitalization was 14.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14.5%-15.3%). The all-cause death rate was 30, 44, and 54 cases per 100 patient-years for patients with one, two, and at least three readmissions vs. 19 cases per 100 patient-years for those without readmissions. Readmitted patients were characterized by an increased risk of death: the adjusted hazard ratios of death in patients with one, two, and at least three readmissions were 1.47 (95% CI: 1.36-1.59), 1.97 (95% CI: 1.69-2.30), and 2.24 (95% CI: 1.81-2.78), respectively.Conclusion In patients hospitalized with HF for the first time, the cumulative one-year HF readmission rate adjusted for the competing risk of death was 17.2%. Increased readmission rates were independently associated with increased odds of readmission and death.

Racial and ethnic disparities in the risk of second primary malignancies in differentiated thyroid cancer patients: a population-based study.

There is limited evidence on the risks of second primary malignancies (SPMs) among patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), particularly in relation to racial disparities. We aim to examine racial and ethnic disparities in the risk and temporal patterns of SPMs among DTC survivors in the U.S. This retrospective cohort study, grounded in population-based data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, focused on DTC patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2015. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals were employed to estimate high-risk sites for SPMs among different races. The competing risks model was applied to assess SPM risks and risk factors across racial groups, with mediation analysis conducted for selected variables. Among 90,186 DTC patients, 8.3% developed SPMs. DTC survivors face a 15% higher risk of developing SPMs compared to the general population. Blacks demonstrated a significantly lower risk of SPMs, while other ethnic groups faced higher risks than Whites. Specific SPM risk factors for Whites, Blacks, and other ethnicities were receiving radiotherapy, diagnosis at a distant stage, and tumors exceeding 40 mm, respectively. Specifically, Blacks and other ethnic groups primarily encounter SPMs in the salivary glands, soft tissues, hematologic, and urinary systems, often earlier than in Whites. Conversely, Whites had a broader distribution of risk sites, with a notable risk for other endocrine tumors, manifesting 48-87 months post-diagnosis. DTC patients show significant racial and ethnic disparities in high-risk sites, temporal patterns, SPM risks and risk factors. Personalized follow-up for diverse ethnic backgrounds can ameliorate disparities, enhancing SPM risk and survival outcomes.

Hepatitis and Hepatitis B Virus Reactivation in Everolimus-Treated Solid Tumor Patients: A Focus on HBV-Endemic Areas.

Everolimus is approved for treating breast, renal, and pancreatic neuroendocrine cancers but carries the risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation (HBVr) and hepatitis. However, data on HBVr in everolimus-treated patients are limited. This study evaluates the risk of hepatitis and HBVr in cancer patients with current or past HBV infection. This retrospective study analyzed patients prescribed everolimus between 1 January 2011 and 31 May 2022, using a private healthcare system database in Taiwan. Patients with HBsAg positivity or HBsAg negativity and anti-HBs or anti-HBc results were included. The cumulative incidence function and risk of hepatitis from a competing risk model, which estimates Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard (SDH), were analyzed across different HBV serological subgroups. The risk of hepatitis B reactivation was also calculated. Of 377 patients, 45% (36/80) of HBsAg-positive and 0.67% (2/297) of HBsAg-negative patients received nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) prophylaxis. Hepatitis occurred in 28.75% of HBsAg-positive and 17.85% of HBsAg-negative patients. Baseline HBsAg positivity and exemestane use increased hepatitis risk. HBVr occurred in 11.36% (5/44) of HBsAg-positive patients without NUCs and 5.56% (2/36) with prophylaxis. Two HBsAg-negative, anti-HBc-positive patients developed severe HBVr-related hepatitis. Hepatitis occurred in 28.75% of HBsAg-positive and 17.85% of HBsAg-negative patients on everolimus. HBVr was common in HBsAg-positive patients but rare in HBsAg-negative individuals. HBV screening and liver function monitoring are critical for patients with past or current HBV infection receiving everolimus, especially in endemic areas.

Impact of inappropriate empirical antibiotic therapy on in-hospital mortality: a retrospective multicentre cohort study of patients with bloodstream infections in Chile, 2018–2022

IntroductionEmpirical antibiotic therapy is essential for treating bloodstream infections (BSI), yet there is limited evidence from resource-limited settings. We quantified the association of inappropriate empirical antibiotic therapy (IEAT) with in-hospital...

Genetic QT score as a predictor of sudden cardiac death in participants with sleep-disordered breathing in the UK Biobank.

The goal of this study was to evaluate the association between a polygenic risk score (PRS) for QT prolongation (QTc-PRS), QTc intervals and sudden cardiac death (SCD) in participants enrolled in the UK Biobank with and without sleep-disordered breathing (SDB). The QTc-PRS was calculated using allele copy number and previously reported effect estimates for each single nuclear polymorphism SNP. Competing-risk regression models adjusting for age, sex, BMI, QT prolonging medication, race, and comorbid cardiovascular conditions were used for SCD analyses. 500,584 participants were evaluated (56.5 ±8 years, 54% women, 1.4% diagnosed with sleep apnea). A higher QTc-PRS was independently associated with the increased QTc interval duration (p<0.0001). The mean QTc for the top QTc-PRS quintile was 15 msec longer than the bottom quintile (p<0.001). SDB was found to be an effect modifier in the relationship between QTc-PRS and SCD. The adjusted HR per 5-unit change in QTc-PRS for SCD was 1.64 (95% CI 1.16 - 2.31, p=0.005) among those with SDB and 1.04 (95% CI 0.95 - 1.14, p=0.44) among those without SDB (p for interaction =0.01). Black participants with SDB had significantly elevated adjusted risk of SCD (HR=9.6, 95% CI 1.24 - 74, p=0.03). In the UK Biobank population, the QTc-PRS was associated with SCD among participants with SDB but not among those without SDB, indicating that SDB is a significant modifier of the genetic risk. Black participants with SDB had a particularly high risk of SCD.

Miscarriage, stillbirth, and mortality risk from stroke in women: findings from the PLCO study.

Existing evidence suggests that miscarriage and stillbirth are associated with an increased risk of stroke in women. However, the impact of these events on stroke mortality remains unclear. This study aimed to elucidate the potential association between miscarriage and stillbirth and stroke mortality in women. We employed a competing risk model using data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial to assess the relationship between miscarriage/stillbirth and stroke death. Death from other causes was considered as a competing risk, and we conducted a subgroup analysis to explore the potential impact. Our study included 68,629 women for miscarriage and 65,343 women for stillbirth. No significant association was observed between miscarriage and stroke mortality (hazard ratio [HR]=0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-1.10; p=0.58). While a single stillbirth did not show a significant association (HR=1.07; 95% CI, 0.81-1.41, p=0.63), recurrent stillbirth (≥2) was associated with a significantly increased risk of stroke mortality compared to women with no stillbirths (HR=2.24; 95% CI, 1.45-3.46, p<0.001). Our findings suggest that recurrent stillbirth, but not single events, is associated with an elevated risk of stroke mortality in women. Further research is warranted to clarify the underlying mechanisms and potential long-term health implications of recurrent pregnancy loss.

Clinical characteristics, prognosis, and prognostic factors of patients with second primary triple-negative breast cancer: a study based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database.

This study examined the characteristics of tumors, treatments, and survival outcomes, with a particular focus on the survival-related factors of second primary triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in comparison to first primary TNBC. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was utilized to identify and enroll patients diagnosed with TNBC between the years 2010 and 2015. The outcomes of this study were 3-year and 5-year breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). The multivariate competing risk model was conducted to explore the association between the second primary cancer and BCSS and to estimate risk factors for BCSS of both first and second primary TNBC. The hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) were evaluation indices. Our study demonstrated that age, histological grade III/IV, high T stage, high N stage, and TNBC were associated with a decreased 3-year and 5-year BCSS in both first and second primary TNBC. Family income ≥$60 000 per year (hazard ratio: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.48-0.95, P = 0.026) correlated with better 3-year BCSS in patients with second primary TNBC. Breast-conserving surgery, mastectomy, and the interval between two cancer diagnoses >3 years were associated with increased 3-year and 5-year BCSS in patients with second primary TNBC (all P < 0.05). This paper reveals a worse survival of second primary TNBC. Great attention should be paid to the prognosis of patients with second primary TNBC.

Predictors and Outcomes of Mental Health Conditions Among Patients with Colorectal Cancer

PurposeMental health (MH) conditions are common in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) due to the unique challenges these patients encounter. The primary aim was to investigate predictors of new onset MH conditions after a diagnosis of CRC and determine the association of new MH conditions on survival.MethodsA single institution, retrospective study was conducted. A multivariable Fine-Gray competing risks model was used to describe the primary study outcome of new MH diagnosis in patients at least 18 years of age with CRC. Survival was modeled using Cox proportional hazards regression with a time-varying covariate for new MH diagnosis.Results456 patients were identified for inclusion, with 16% developing a new MH condition and 29% dying during follow-up. A new MH condition was more likely among non-Hispanic white patients compared to non-Hispanic black and were less likely among those who are male or had a pre-cancer MH condition. The onset of a new MH condition was associated with a threefold decrease in survival. In addition, having a pre-cancer MH condition decreased survival nearly twofold.ConclusionsOur findings emphasize the importance of new-onset MH in patients after CRC diagnosis. Standardized screenings may alleviate some of the MH burden that patients with CRC experience in addition to potentially improving the overall health of patients.Implications for Cancer Survivors.MH conditions may impact not only CRC outcomes but may direct future studies analyzing the risks of new onset MH conditions in other types of cancers, further expanding the importance of psychiatric support in patients with cancer.

Clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes of Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in children with congenital heart disease.

To analyze the clinical outcomes of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support in children with congenital heart disease (CHD) after surgery and explore the risk factors associated with mortality during long-term follow-up for 3-5 years. We conducted a retrospective observational study at Shanghai Children Medical Center (SCMC) from 2017 to 2021 and reviewed the clinical results and laboratory findings of 188 CHD patients who received ECMO support during this period. The 5-year overall survival rate was 56.38% (106/188) among CHD patients who received ECMO support. Kaplan-Meier curve showed residual anatomical malformation (RAM) (p < 0.0001), gastrointestinal bleeding (p = 0.019), single ventricular (SV) (p = 0.028), and pre-ECMO lactate level >10 mmol/L (p < 0.0001) were significantly associated with higher mortality in follow-up. Cox analysis identified RAM (p = 0.039) and pre-ECMO lactate level >10 mmol/L (p < 0.001) as independent risk factors for overall survival. Conversely, a minimum platelet count ≥50 × 109/L (p < 0.001) was found to be a protective factor. Moreover, a competing risk model showed that a CPR time ≥60 min (p < 0.001) was identified as a risk factor for death in patients who failed to be discharged from the hospital. Our study showed characteristics of long-term follow-up patients and revealed several risk factors associated with mortality in children with CHD who received ECMO support. These findings can provide valuable insights for clinical decision-making and contribute to improving patient outcomes.

Abstract 4123540: Cardiovascular Health and Cancer Incidence and Mortality: NHANES-III and -Continuous study

Background: Cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are the leading causes of death worldwide. Limited evidence is available regarding the relationship between CVD, cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF), and cancer mortality; and how CVRF further modify that relationship. Methods: The first part included 438 and 2100 CVD patients aged 65+ from NHANES-III and Continuous (1999-2016) datasets, respectively. Competing risk models with subdistribution hazards ratio (aHR) were used to identify risk factors for cancer incidence. The second part included 44,591 adult individuals from NHANES-Continuous merged with Medicare and National Death Index mortality data until the end of 2018. We included individuals with no history of cancer at baseline. We used competing risk modeling to test the relationship between CVD at baseline and cancer mortality. We also conducted a comprehensive risk factor analysis. Results: In the first part (Figure), females in NHANES-III had lower cancer risk (aHR 0.39, P=0.001) compared to males. Poor physical activity was associated with increased cancer risk in both datasets (aHR 2.59 in NHANES-III, aHR 1.59 in Continuous). In NHANES-Continuous, age (aHR 1.07, P&lt;0.001) and current smoking (aHR 2.55, P=0.001) showed a significant association with developing cancer. No other factors investigated showed significant associations. In the second analysis (Table), the included sample size represented 1,738,423,317 individuals (52% females, 67% non-Hispanic Whites, and 9% Hispanics). Competing risk modeling showed a significantly higher risk of cancer mortality in individuals with CVD (aHR 1.37, 95% CI 1.07-1.76, P=0.01) after adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Notably, cancer mortality increased with aging (aHR 1.08, 95%CI 1.05-1.11, P&lt;0.0001), current smoking status (aHR 6.78, 95%CI 3.43-13.42, P&lt;0.0001), and obesity (aHR 2.32, 95%CI 1.13-4.79, P=0.02). Finally, a significant interaction (P=0.034) was found where those with CVD and obesity showed higher cancer mortality than those with normal BMI (aHR, 95%CI 1.03-2.91, P=0.04). Conclusions: Our study highlights the close relationship between cardiovascular health and cancer, including among CVD patients. Our findings suggest that physical activity and obesity may play a significant role in cancer incidence and mortality among the general population and CVD patients. These findings emphasize the need for more proactive approach in the management of shared risk factors for CVD and cancer.

Abstract 4136280: Inflammation and Cancer Mortality among CVD Individuals: NHANES-Continuous study

Background: Both cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are the leading causes of death worldwide. While previous research showed a relationship between CVD and cancer incidence, limited evidence is available regarding the relationship between inflammation and cancer mortality in CVD patients. Methods: A prospective cohort study using data from the continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (1999-2016) merged with Medicare and National Death Index (NDI) mortality data until December 31, 2018. We included CVD individuals with no history of cancer at baseline to investigate the relationship between inflammatory markers, including Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as the main exposure and cancer mortality as the main outcome. Results: We included 4,089 adult individuals representing 127,809,316 individuals (47% females, 72% non-Hispanic Whites, and 5% Hispanics). The risk factor analysis (Table) using the competing risk modeling showed that while inflammatory markers did not show significant associations with cancer mortality in the overall analysis, upon stratification by race/ethnicity, NH-Blacks showed higher cancer mortality with higher WBC count (aHR 5.61, 95% CI 1.66-18.91, p=0.007) and NLR (aHR 2.97, 95% CI 1.19-7.42, p=0.02), but lower cancer mortality with higher neutrophil (aHR 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.60, p=0.02) and lymphocyte (aHR 0.34, 95% CI 0.15-0.80, p=0.02) counts. Notably, our NH-Blacks showed lower neutrophils at baseline than others which could be explained by a phenomenon called “Benign Ethnic Neutropenia -BEN-” that still brings more complexity when interpreting NLR. Conclusions: Our study highlights the close relationship between cardiovascular health, inflammation, and cancer mortality. The findings also suggest that race/ethnicity may play a significant role in the relationship between inflammation and cancer mortality among individuals with CVD. Yet, further research is still needed to underpin the biological pathways influencing this relationship.

Surgery versus radiation for clinically positive nodal prostate cancer in an other cause mortality risk weighted cohort.

This study examined cancer control metrics between surgery and radiation for clinically positive nodal prostate cancer in an other-cause mortality weighted cohort, to circumvent limitations in previous studies. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Research Plus database was queried to identify men with clinically positive nodal prostate cancer at diagnosis between 2004 and 2017 who were treated with surgery or radiation. A competing-risks regression model was used to calculate the 10-year other-cause mortality risk using available covariates, including treatment type. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was then used to balance covariates, including other-cause mortality risk. Then, competing-risks cumulative incidence curves and multivariable models, which were weighted on the calculated other-cause mortality risk, were used to examine the impact of treatment type on cancer-specific mortality, after accounting for covariates. 4739 patients underwent surgery whereas 1039 underwent radiation. The median follow-up was 4.7years (2.6-8.2). Other-cause mortality was statistically different between treatment arms in the unweighted cohort (Gray's p = 0.005), but that difference disappeared in the weighted cohort (Gray's p = 0.2). At 10years, the cancer-specific mortality rate was 27.6% (22.2-33.9) for radiation versus 18.1% (16.2-20.3) for surgery (p < 0.001). On competing-risks multivariable analysis, radiation had 1.86-fold (95% CI 1.69-2.12) higher hazard likelihood from one year to the next compared to surgery (p < 0.001). Clinically positive nodal patients treated with radiation fare worst cancer-specific mortality than those that underwent surgery, using calculated other-cause mortality risk.

Medical and Engineering Applications for Estimation and Prediction of a New Competing Risks Model: A Bayesian Approach

The Bayesian approach offers a flexible, interpretable and powerful framework for statistical analysis, making it a valuable tool to help in making optimal decisions under uncertainty. It incorporates prior knowledge or beliefs about the parameters, which can lead to more accurate and informative results. Also, it offers credible intervals as a measure of uncertainty, which are often more interpretable than confidence intervals. Hence, the Bayesian approach is utilized to estimate the parameters, reliability function, hazard rate function and reversed hazard rate function of a new competing risks model. A squared error loss function as a symmetric loss function and a linear exponential loss function as an asymmetric loss function are employed to derive the Bayesian estimators. Credible intervals of the parameters, reliability function, hazard rate function and reversed hazard rate function are obtained. Predicting future observations is important in many fields, from finance and weather forecasting to healthcare and engineering. Thus, two-sample prediction (as a special case of the multi-sample prediction) for future observation is considered. An adaptive Metropolis algorithm is applied to conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the Bayes estimates and predictors. Moreover, two applications of medical and engineering data sets are used to test and validate the theoretical results, ensuring that they are accurate, applicable to real-world scenarios and contribute to the understanding of the world and inform decision-making.

Development and validation of a risk predictive nomogram for colon cancer-specific mortality: a competing risk model based on the SEER database

BackgroundUtilizing the SEER database, we developed a competing risk model along with a nomogram designed for the early identification of colon cancer-specific mortality (CSM) risk.MethodsClinical and pathological information, along with other significant data, were obtained from the SEER database. Patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set. We investigated the independent factors affecting CSM among colon cancer patients using univariate and multivariate analyses within a competing risk framework, ultimately developing a predictive tool for CSM in colon cancer.ResultsInvolving 40,261 individuals diagnosed with colon cancer, our study included 10,397 deaths directly due to the disease and an additional 5,828 from other causes. We used a competing risk model to predict cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in these patients. For the training dataset, the model’s area under the curve (AUC) for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) was 0.835 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.826 to 0.844), 0.849 (95% CI 0.843 to 0.855), and 0.843 (95% CI 0.836 to 0.850), respectively. In the validation group, the AUC values for the same time periods were 0.846 (95% CI 0.833 to 0.860), 0.853 (95% CI 0.843 to 0.862), and 0.846 (95% CI 0.835 to 0.856), respectively. In comparison, traditional survival analysis yielded higher cumulative CSM rates over time than those provided by our competing risk approach.ConclusionWe created a competitive risk assessment model along with a predictive tool designed to estimate CSM in patients with colon cancer. This nomogram demonstrates high accuracy and reliability, aiding medical professionals in making clinical decisions and developing patient follow-up plans.