Community-based Prospective Cohort Study Research Articles

The predictive value of cumulative atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) for cardiovascular outcomes: a prospective community-based cohort study

BackgroundAtherogenic index of plasma (AIP) has been reported as a critical predictor on the risks and clinical outcomes of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and we aimed to explore the potential predictive value of cumulative AIP on major adverse cardiac events (MACE), stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) and cardiovascular mortality.MethodsA large-scale community-based prospective cohort was established from December 2011 to April 2012 and followed up in May to July 2014. The endpoint outcomes were obtained before December 31, 2021. AIP was calculated as the logarithmically transformed ratio of triglyceride (TG) to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) and cumulative AIP was the average value of AIP in 2012 and 2014.ResultsAn overall of 3820 participants (36.1% male) with mean (SD) age of 59.1 (8.7) years, were enrolled. Within a median follow-up of 7.5 years, a total of 371 (9.7%) participants were documented with MACE, 293 (7.7%) participants developed stroke, 68 (1.8%) suffered from MI and 65 (1.7%) experienced cardiovascular mortality. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed significant associations between cumulative AIP and the risk of MACE, stroke and MI. Regarding MACE, individuals with one higher unit of cumulative AIP were associated with 75% increment on the incidence of going through MACE in fully adjusted model, while categorizing participants into four groups, individuals in the highest cumulative AIP quartile were significantly associated with increased incidence of MACE (HR = 1.76, 95%CI: 1.27–2.44, p < 0.001 in fully adjusted model), stroke (HR = 1.69, 95%CI: 1.17–2.45, p = 0.005) and MI (HR = 2.82, 95%CI: 1.18–6.72, p = 0.019). But not a significant association was observed between cumulative AIP and cardiovascular mortality. In subgroup analysis, the association of cumulative AIP and the incidence of stroke was more pronounced in the elderly (HR: 0.89 vs. 2.41 for the age groups < 65 years and ≥ 65 years, p for interaction = 0.018).ConclusionsA higher cumulative AIP was significantly associated with an increased risk of MACE, stroke and MI independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors in a community-based population, and the association of cumulative AIP and stroke was particularly pronounced in the elderly population.

Addition of Social Determinants of Health to Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Social determinants of health (SDoH) are associated with cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes; however, they are absent from risk prediction models. We aimed to assess if the addition of SDoH improves the predictive ability of the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) Risk Score. This was a community-based prospective population cohort study that enrolled 6286 men and women, ages 45-84 years, who were free of clinical coronary heart disease (CHD) at baseline. Data from 10-year follow-up were examined for CHD events, defined as myocardial infarction, fatal CHD, resuscitated cardiac arrest, and revascularization in cases of anginal symptoms. Participants included 53% women with average age of 62 years. When adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, SDoH, and coronary artery calcium, economic strain, specifically low family income, was associated with a greater risk of CHD events (hazard ratio [HR], 1.42 [95% CI, 1.17-1.71], P value<0.001). Area under the curve of risk prediction with SDoH was 0.822, compared with 0.816 without SDoH. The calibration slope was 0.860 with SDoH and 0.878 in the original model. Significant associations were found between economic/financial SDoH and CHD risk factors and outcomes. Incorporation of SDoH into the MESA Risk Score did not improve predictive ability of the model. Our findings do not support the incorporation of SDoH into current risk prediction algorithms.

Subjective Cognitive Decline Plus and Longitudinal Assessment and Risk for Cognitive Impairment

Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is recognized to be in the Alzheimer disease (AD) cognitive continuum. The SCD Initiative International Working Group recently proposed SCD-plus (SCD+) features that increase risk for future objective cognitive decline but that have not been assessed in a large community-based setting. To assess SCD risk for mild cognitive impairment (MCI), AD, and all-cause dementia, using SCD+ criteria among cognitively normal adults. The Framingham Heart Study, a community-based prospective cohort study, assessed SCD between 2005 and 2019, with up to 12 years of follow-up. Participants 60 years and older with normal cognition at analytic baseline were included. Cox proportional hazards (CPH) models were adjusted for baseline age, sex, education, APOE ε4 status, and tertiles of AD polygenic risk score (PRS), excluding the APOE region. Data were analyzed from May 2021 to November 2023. SCD was assessed longitudinally using a single question and considered present if endorsed at the last cognitively normal visit. It was treated as a time-varying variable, beginning at the first of consecutive, cognitively normal visits, including the last, at which it was endorsed. Consensus-diagnosed MCI, AD, and all-cause dementia. This study included 3585 participants (mean [SD] baseline age, 68.0 [7.7] years; 1975 female [55.1%]). A total of 1596 participants (44.5%) had SCD, and 770 (21.5%) were carriers of APOE ε4. APOE ε4 and tertiles of AD PRS status did not significantly differ between the SCD and non-SCD groups. MCI, AD, and all-cause dementia were diagnosed in 236 participants (6.6%), 73 participants (2.0%), and 89 participants (2.5%), respectively, during follow-up. On average, SCD preceded MCI by 4.4 years, AD by 6.8 years, and all-cause dementia by 6.9 years. SCD was significantly associated with survival time to MCI (hazard ratio [HR], 1.57; 95% CI, 1.22-2.03; P <.001), AD (HR, 2.98; 95% CI, 1.89-4.70; P <.001), and all-cause dementia (HR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.44-3.18; P <.001). After adjustment for APOE and AD PRS, the hazards of SCD were largely unchanged. Results of this cohort study suggest that in a community setting, SCD reflecting SCD+ features was associated with an increased risk of future MCI, AD, and all-cause dementia with similar hazards estimated in clinic-based settings. SCD may be an independent risk factor for AD and other dementias beyond the risk incurred by APOE ε4 and AD PRS.

How Generalizable Are Findings from a Community-Based Prospective Cohort Study? Extending Estimates from the Adult Changes in Thought Study to Its Source Population

Background: The Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study is a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Washington members ages 65+ that began in 1994. Objective: We wanted to know how well ACT participants represented all older adults in the region, and how well ACT findings on eye disease and its relationship with Alzheimer’s disease generalized to all older adults in the Seattle Metropolitan Region. Methods: We used participation weights derived from pooling ACT and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data to estimate prevalences of common eye diseases and their associations with Alzheimer’s disease incidence. Cox proportional hazards models accounted for age, education, smoking, sex, and APOE genotype. Confidence intervals for weighted analyses were bootstrapped to account for error in estimating the weights. Results: ACT participants were fairly similar to older adults in the region. The largest differences were more self-reported current cholesterol medication use in BRFSS and higher proportions with low education in ACT. Incorporating the weights had little impact on prevalence estimates for age-related macular degeneration or glaucoma. Weighted estimates were slightly higher for diabetic retinopathy (weighted 5.7% (95% Confidence Interval 4.3, 7.1); unweighted 4.1% (3.6, 4.6)) and cataract history (weighted 51.8% (49.6, 54.3); unweighted 48.6% (47.3, 49.9)). The weighted hazard ratio for recent diabetic retinopathy diagnosis and Alzheimer’s disease was 1.84 (0.34, 4.29), versus 1.32 (0.87, 2.00) in unweighted ACT. Conclusions: Most, but not all, associations were similar after participation weighting. Even in community-based cohorts, extending inferences to broader populations may benefit from evaluation with participation weights.

Inflammation and endothelial function relevant genetic polymorphisms, carotid atherosclerosis, and vascular events in high-risk stroke population.

To identify the associations of 19 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes involved in inflammation and endothelial function and carotid atherosclerosis with subsequent ischemic stroke and other vascular events in the high-risk stroke population. This was a multicenter community-based sectional survey and prospective cohort study in Sichuan, southwestern China. Eight communities were randomly selected, and the residents in each community were surveyed using a structured face-to-face questionnaire. Carotid ultrasonography and DNA information were obtained from 2,377 out of 2,893 individuals belonging to a high-risk stroke population. Genotypes of the 19 SNPs in genes involved in inflammation and endothelial function were measured. All the 2,377 subjects were followed up for 4.7 years after the face-to-face survey. The primary outcome was ischemic stroke, and the secondary outcome was a composite of vascular events. Among the 2,377 subjects, 2,205 (92.8%) completed a 4.7-year follow-up, 947 (42.9%) had carotid atherosclerosis [372 (16.9%) carotid vulnerable plaque, 405 (18.4%) mean IMT > 0.9 mm, 285 (12.0%) carotid stenosis ≥15%]. Outcomes occurred in 158 (7.2%) subjects [92 (4.2%) ischemic stroke, 17 (0.8%) hemorrhagic stroke, 48 (2.2%) myocardial infarction, and 26 (1.2%) death] during follow-up. There was a significant gene-gene interaction among ITGA2 rs1991013, IL1A rs1609682, and HABP2 rs7923349 in the 19 SNPs. The multivariate logistic regression model revealed that carotid atherosclerosis and the high-risk interactive genotypes among the three SNPs were independent with a higher risk for ischemic stroke (OR = 2.67, 95% CI: 1.52-6.78, p = 0.004; and OR = 3.11, 95% CI: 2.12-9.27, p < 0.001, respectively) and composite vascular events (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.46-6.35, p < 0.001; and OR = 3.23, 95% CI: 1.97-8.52, p < 0.001, respectively). The prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis was shown to be very high in the high-risk stroke population. Specific SNPs, interactions among them, and carotid atherosclerosis were independently associated with a higher risk of ischemic stroke and other vascular events.

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons promotes the progression of low-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: A population-based cohort study in China.

Low-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN1) is an early stage of cervical cancer development. Previously, we reported that exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) increases the risk of cervical precancerous lesions, especially in females with a high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection. However, the effects of PAHs on CIN1 progression remain unclear. A community-based prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the role of exposure to PAHs in the progression of CIN1. A total of 564 patients diagnosed with CIN1 were followed-up at 6, 12, and 24 months, post-diagnosis, to determine CIN1 reversion, persistence, and progression. Exposure to PAHs was determined by the urine 1-hydroxipayrene (1-OHP) level. Our results showed that the 1-OHP level was significantly higher in patients with CIN1 persistence/progression than in those with reversion (P < .05). High exposure to PAHs increased the risk of CIN1 persistence/progression, with hazard ratios (HR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) of (1.62, 1.24-2.67), (1.98, 1.42-2.75), and (2.37, 1.61-3.49) at 6, 12, and 24 months, post-diagnosis, respectively. The effect was enhanced with HR-HPV positivity, as determined at 6 (1.82, 1.24-2.67), 12 (3.02, 1.74-5.23), and 24 (2.51, 1.48-4.26) months, post-diagnosis. Moreover, the predictive value of exposure to PAHs for CIN1 persistence/progression was higher in HR-HPV-positive patients than in HR-HPV-negative patients. The results revealed that exposure to PAHs facilitated the malignant progression of CIN1 and hindered its reversal, particularly in patients with HR-HPV infection. Our findings provide novel insights into early prevention and intervention targeting the initiation and progression of cervical neoplasia.

Deep terminal negative of the P wave in V1 and incidence of ischemic stroke: The atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study

BackgroundDeep terminal negative of the P wave in V1 (DTNPV1) is a marker of left atrial remodeling. We aimed to evaluate the association of DTNPV1 with incident ischemic stroke. MethodsThe Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study is a prospective community-based cohort study. All participants at visit 4 (1996–1998) except those with prevalent stroke, missing covariates, and missing or uninterpretable ECG were included. DTNPV1 was defined as the absolute value of the depth of the terminal negative phase >100 μV in the presence of biphasic P wave in V1. Association between DTNPV1 as a time-dependent exposure variable and incident ischemic stroke was evaluated. The accuracy of the prediction model consisting of DTNPV1 and CHA2DS2-VASc variables in predicting ischemic stroke was analyzed. ResultsAmong 10,605 participants (63 ± 6 years, 56% women, 20% Black), 803 cases of ischemic stroke occurred over a median follow-up of 20.19 years. After adjusting for demographics, DTNPV1 was associated with an increased risk of stroke (HR 1.96, [95% CI 1.39–2.77]). After further adjusting for stroke risk factors, use of aspirin and anticoagulants, and time-dependent atrial fibrillation, DTNPV1 was associated with a 1.50-fold (95% CI 1.06–2.13) increased risk of stroke. When added to the CHA2DS2-VASc variables, DTNPV1 did not significantly improve stroke prediction as assessed by C-statistic. However, there was improvement in risk classification for participants who did not develop stroke. ConclusionDTNPV1 is significantly associated with higher risk of ischemic stroke. Since DTNPV1 is a simplified electrocardiographic parameter, it may help stroke prediction, a subject for further research.

Self-Rated Health in Middle Age and Risk of Hospitalizations and Death: Recurrent Event Analysis of the ARIC Study.

Self-rated health is a simple measure that may identify individuals who are at a higher risk for hospitalization or death. To quantify the association between a single measure of self-rated health and future risk of recurrent hospitalizations or death. Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a community-based prospective cohort study of middle-aged men and women with follow-up beginning from 1987 to 1989. We quantified the associations between initial self-rated health with risk of recurrent hospitalizations and of death using a recurrent events survival model that allowed for dependency between the rates of hospitalization and hazards of death, adjusted for demographic and clinical factors. Of the 14,937 ARIC cohort individuals with available self-rated health and covariate information, 34% of individuals reported "excellent" health, 47% "good," 16% "fair," and 3% "poor" at study baseline. After a median follow-up of 27.7years, 1955 (39%), 3569 (51%), 1626 (67%), and 402 (83%) individuals with "excellent," "good," "fair," and "poor" health, respectively, had died. After adjusting for demographic factors and medical history, a less favorable self-rated health status was associated with increased rates of hospitalization and death. As compared to those reporting "excellent" health, adults with "good," "fair," and "poor" health had 1.22 (1.07 to 1.40), 2.01 (1.63 to 2.47), and 3.13 (2.39 to 4.09) times the rate of hospitalizations, respectively. The hazards of death also increased with worsening categories of self-rated health, with "good," "fair," and "poor" health individuals experiencing 1.30 (1.12 to 1.51), 2.15 (1.71 to 2.69), and 3.40 (2.54 to 4.56) times the hazard of death compared to "excellent," respectively. Even after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors, having a less favorable response on a single measure of self-rated health taken in middle age is a potent marker of future hospitalizations and death.

Progression of Intracranial Artery Stenosis and Cerebral Small Vessel Disease and Associations Between the Two Entities: A Prospective Community-based Cohort Study (S6.003)

Progression of Intracranial Artery Stenosis and Cerebral Small Vessel Disease and Associations Between the Two Entities: A Prospective Community-based Cohort Study (S6.003)

Association between antenatal common mental disorders symptoms, and adverse obstetric and perinatal outcomes: A community-based prospective cohort study in Eastern Ethiopia

BackgroundMaternal common mental disorders have broad implications for maternal and child mental and physical health that may have a long-lasting social and economic impact. This study aimed to assess the association between symptoms of antenatal common mental disorders and obstetric and perinatal outcomes in Eastern Ethiopia. MethodsA community-based prospective cohort study was conducted and a total of 1011 randomly selected pregnant women were followed up from February 1, 2021, to January 30, 2022. The modified Poisson regression model with a robust variance was fitted to examine the effect of the symptoms of antenatal common mental disorders on obstetric and perinatal outcomes. ResultsAntenatal common mental disorders (SRQ ≥ 6) were presented among 390 (38.58 %) pregnant women. In the final multivariate Poisson regression model, women with antenatal common mental disorders symptoms had an increased risk of some pregnancy complications (ARR = 1.65, 95 % CI: 1.59, 1.84). In the current study, symptoms of antenatal common mental disorders increased also the risk of preterm birth (ARR = 1.71; 95 % CI: 1.20, 2.42) and low birth weight (ARR = 1.93; 95 % CI: 1.36, 2.74). LimitationThe indirect effects of some potential mediators and moderators were not assessed in this study. ConclusionThe study found a high rate of symptoms of antenatal common mental disorders and adverse obstetric and perinatal outcomes. Antenatal common mental disorders symptoms may have considerable effects on individual and combined pregnancy complications and adverse perinatal outcomes.

Prevalence of and factors associated with home births in western Nepal: Findings from the baseline of a community-based prospective cohort study

Problem consideredHome birth in a resource-poor setting such as Nepal is a maternal and newborn survival risk factor. Although the proportion of home births in Nepal has decreased substantially over the last two decades, the progress has yet to be equal in all regions. This study aimed to explore the prevalence of and investigate the factors associated with home birth in the western region of Nepal. MethodsA community-based prospective cohort study was conducted in the Rupandehi district of western Nepal. A total of 735 mother-infant pairs were included (rural = 378, urban = 357). Factors affecting home births were first assessed using chi-square tests, followed by multiple logistic regression. ResultsOnly 11.8% of mothers had their childbirth at home. Women who had ≤3 antenatal care (ANC) visits (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 3.15; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.88, 5.29), reported receiving sub-optimal ANC services (AOR: 1.98; 95% CI: 1.18, 3.33), and were multiparous (AOR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.13, 4.23), were more likely to have home births. Conversely, women from rich families (AOR: 0.19; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.57) were less likely to have home births. ConclusionFuture public health interventions need to focus on ensuring the equitable distribution of maternal health services. There is a need to adapt the maternal incentive schemes to remove the demand side barriers to increase access to childbirth services for women from poor wealth backgrounds. Furthermore, within the supply side, improving the access to and quality of ANC is likely to reduce home births.

The effect of parity on time to initiate complementary feeding among mother-infant pairs in Awi Zone, Northwest Ethiopia

IntroductionDespite strategies and recommendations for complementary feeding initiation were applied globally, mothers initiated complementary feeding to the infants on time was low. Previous works of literatures were not identified the effect of parity on time to initiate complementary feeding. Particularly, evidences regarding to this in Ethiopia is scanty. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the effect of parity on time to initiate complementary feeding among mother-infants pairs in Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsA community-based prospective cohort study was carried out among 732 primipara, and 1464 multipara mothers who had a live birth in Northwest Ethiopia. Data were collected using Kobo collect software at the start of and on a monthly bases until the end of the follow up period. Parity as exposure variable and other confounders were analyzed using cox proportional hazard regression. Kaplan-Meier survival curve and the Schoenfeld residuals global test (P-value = 0.4861) was performed. Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was used to declare statistical significance of predictors.ResultsThe overall incidence rate of initiation of complementary feeding among primipara and multipara mothers were 16.27 (95%CI: 15.04, 17.61) and 13.30 (95%CI: 12.53, 14.12) person months’ observations respectively. The median time to initiate complementary feeding among primipara and multipara mothers for their infants was 5 and 6 months respectively. Primipara mothers had a 30% higher rate to initiate complementary feeding early (AHR = 1.30, 95%CI: 1.17, 1.43). Age from 15 to 24 and 25–34 years (AHR = 1.69, 95%CI: 1.36, 2.09; and AHR = 1.45, 95%CI: 1.17, 1.81) and Birth type (twin) (AHR = 1.29, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.64) were statistically significant predictors for time to initiate complementary feeding.ConclusionsParity was identified as a statistically significant predictor for time to initiate complementary feeding. The incidence rate of early and late initiation of complementary feeding was higher among primipara than multipara mothers. Besides, the median time to initiate complementary feeding was earlier among primipara than multipara mothers. So, a parity based complementary feeding practice education should be advocated to tackle the gap and further reduce infants and children malnutrition. Relatively younger age and twin delivered mothers initiated complementary feeding against the recommendation. Therefore, intervention considering such statistically significant predictors could have a public health importance.

Objective sleep characteristics and hypertension: a community-based cohort study.

The link between sleep quality and hypertension risk is well-established. However, research on the specific dose-relationship between objective sleep characteristics and hypertension incidence remains limited. This study aims to explore the dose-relationship association between objective sleep characteristics and hypertension incidence. A community-based prospective cohort study design was employed using data from the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS). A total of 2,460 individuals were included in the study, of which 780 had hypertension. Baseline personal characteristics and medical history were collected. Objective sleep characteristics were obtained through polysomnography (PSG). Multivariate logistic regression models were utilized for analysis. Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to examine dose-relationship associations. After adjusting for covariates, the percentage of total sleep duration in stage 2 (N2%) was positively associated with hypertension incidence, while the N3% was negatively associated with hypertension incidence Odds ratio (OR) = 1.009, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.001, 1.018], P = 0.037; OR = 0.987, 95% CI: [0.979, 0.995], P = 0.028, respectively. For every 10% increase in N2 sleep, the risk of developing hypertension increases by 9%, while a 3% decrease in N3 sleep corresponds to a 0.1% increase in the incidence of hypertension. In the subgroup of non-depression, a positive association between N2% and hypertension was significant statistically (OR = 1.012, 95%CI, 1.002, 1.021, P = 0.013, Pinteraction = 0.013). RCS demonstrated that the risk of developing hypertension was lower when N2% ranged from 38% to 58% and rapidly increased thereafter (P = 0.002, non-linear P = 0.040). The lowest risk for hypertension incidence risk of N3% occurring at 25%, and a significant increase below 15% or above 40% (P = 0.001, non-linear P = 0.008). There's a negative association between N3% and the incidence of hypertension, and a positive association between N2% and the incidence of hypertension, particularly among non-depression individuals. These associations exhibit strong non-linear dose-response relationships.

Sex-Specific Association between Sodium Intake Estimated by 24-Hour Urinary Sodium Excretion and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: The Community-Based Prospective Cohort Study.

Evidence for the association between high sodium intake and the onset of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is insufficient. This study examined the sex-specific association between sodium intake and the risk of NAFLD. This study included 2582 adults (aged 40-69 years; 1011 males and 1571 females). The total sodium excreted over 24 h was estimated from spot urine specimens using Tanaka's equation. Based on these estimates, participants were categorized into three groups according to their 24-h urinary sodium excretion levels: lowest (T1), middle (T2), and highest (T3). In addition, the participants were divided into non-NAFLD (≤36) and NAFLD (>36) groups based on the hepatic steatosis index. During the follow-up period (14 years), NAFLD was observed in 551 participants. The estimated 24-h urinary sodium excretion levels were positively associated with the incidence of NAFLD in all subjects. Upon sex stratification, females in the T2 and T3 groups exhibited adjusted hazard ratios of 1.35 and 1.51, respectively, compared with the T1 group. However, a significant relationship was not observed in males. High intake of sodium, especially among females, may be an important factor contributing to the development of NAFLD. Individuals with high sodium intake should be appropriately counselled and monitored for the risk of NAFLD.

Multimorbidity, Social Engagement, and Age-Related Cognitive Decline in Older Adults from the Rancho Bernardo Study of Healthy Aging.

Multimorbidity is associated with increased rate of cognitive decline with age. It is unknown whether social engagement, which is associated with reduced risk of dementia, modifies associations between multimorbidity and cognitive decline. To examine the associations of multimorbidity with longitudinal cognitive test performance among community-dwelling older adults, and to determine whether associations differed by levels of social engagement. We used data from the Rancho Bernardo Study of Healthy Aging, a community-based prospective cohort study. Starting in 1992-1996, participants completed a battery of cognitive function tests at up to 6 study visits over 23.7 (mean = 7.2) years. Multimorbidity was defined as≥2 of 14 chronic diseases. Social engagement was assessed using items based on the Berkman-Syme Social Network Index. Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were used to test associations of multimorbidity and cognitive performance trajectories. Effect measure modification by social engagement was evaluated. Among 1,381 participants (mean age = 74.5 years; 60.8% women; 98.8% non-Hispanic White), 37.1% had multimorbidity and 35.1% had low social engagement. Multimorbidity was associated with faster declines in Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE; β= -0.20; 95% CI -0.35, -0.04), Trail-Making Test Part B (β= 10.02; 95% CI 5.77, 14.27), and Category Fluency (β= -0.42; 95% CI -0.72, -0.13) after adjustment for socio-demographic and health-related characteristics. Multimorbidity was associated with faster declines in MMSE among those with low compared to medium and high social engagement (p-interaction < 0.01). Multimorbidity was associated with faster declines in cognition among community-dwelling older adults. Higher social engagement may mitigate multimorbidity-associated cognitive decline.

Temporal Changes in Resting Heart Rate and Risk of Diabetes Mellitus.

To investigate the association between the time-varying resting heart rate (RHR) and change in RHR (∆RHR) over time and the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) by sex. We assessed 8,392 participants without DM or atrial fibrillation/flutter from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, a community-based prospective cohort study that was initiated in 2001 to 2002. The participants were followed up until December 31, 2018. Updating RHR with biennial in-study re-examinations, the time-varying ∆RHR was calculated by assessing the ∆RHR at the next follow-up visit. Over a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 1,345 participants (16.2%) had DM. As compared with RHR of 60 to 69 bpm, for RHR of ≥80 bpm, the incidence of DM was significantly increased for both male and female. A drop of ≥5 bpm in ∆RHR when compared with the stable ∆RHR group (-5< ∆RHR <5 bpm) was associated significantly with lower risk of DM in both male and female. However, an increase of ≥5 bpm in ∆RHR was significantly associated with higher risk of DM only in female, not in male (hazard ratio for male, 1.057 [95% confidence interval, 0.869 to 1.285]; and for female, 1.218 [95% confidence interval, 1.008 to 1.471]). In this community-based longitudinal cohort study, a reduction in ∆RHR was associated with a decreased risk of DM, while an increase in ∆RHR was associated with an increased risk of DM only in female.

Abstract TP221: Progression of Intracranial Artery Stenosis and Cerebral Small Vessel Disease and Associations Between the Two Entities: A Prospective Community-Based Cohort Study

Background: Both intracranial artery stenosis (ICAS) and cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) can cause heavy socioeconomic burdens. However, their longitudinal changes remain controversial. To investigate the risk factors for ICAS and CSVD progression and their associations in a community population. Methods: This longitudinal analysis included 756 participants who underwent both baseline and follow-up brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and magnetic resonance angiography from Shunyi cohort. The follow-up duration was 5.58±0.49 years. Incident ICAS was defined as new stenosis occurring in at least one artery or increased severity of the original artery stenosis. CSVD markers included lacunes, cerebral microbleeds (CMB), and white matter hyperintensities (WMH). Results: Of the 756 participants (aged 53.7±8.0 years, 34.9% men), 8.5% had incident ICAS. Body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus are independent risk factors for ICAS. Hypertension is an independent risk factor for incident lacunes and CMB, whereas WMH progression is primarily affected by BMI. Higher LDL cholesterol level independently protects against WMH progression. Baseline ICAS burden predicted an increased risk of incident lacunes (odds ratio [OR] = 2.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10-4.29, p = 0.025) after adjusting for age, sex, follow-up time, vascular risk factors, and baseline lacunes burden. Incident ICAS was also significantly associated with incident lacunes (OR = 3.29, 95% CI = 1.61-6.72, p = 0.001). No significant correlation was identified between ICAS and CMB or WMH. Conclusions: Patients with ICAS and CSVD progression had different modifiable risk factor profiles. The disparate association between ICAS and progressions of different MRI markers of CSVD imply vital differences of their underline mechanism.

Relationship between resting heart rate and long-term outcomes in stabilized patients with myocardial infarction: A prospective community-based cohort study

BackgroundResting heart rate (RHR) during hospitalization has been shown to be associated with adverse outcomes in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). This study aimed to evaluate the long-term prognostic effect of RHR during the stable phase after MI in post-MI patients. MethodsPatients who had prior or new-onset MI and RHR measurements during the stable period after MI between 2006 and 2018 in the community-based Kailuan Study were enrolled. RHR was divided into four groups based on quartiles. Cox regression analysis was used to analyze the association of RHR with primary composite outcome of all-cause death, hospitalization for heart failure (HF), stroke, and recurrent MI and its components. ResultsA total of 4447 post-MI patients were included. During a median follow-up of 7.5 years, 1813 patients (40.8%) developed primary outcomes. Compared to RHR ≤67 bpm, patients with 72 < RHR ≤80 bpm and RHR >80 bpm had increased risks of primary outcome, with adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 1.23 (1.08–1.40) and 1.35 (1.18–1.55), respectively. The risk of primary outcome increased by 12% (1.07–1.17) for each 10-bpm increase in RHR. Similar results were observed in all-cause death and hospitalization for HF. Restricted cubic splines revealed a linear relationship between RHR and primary outcome, all-cause death, and hospitalization for HF (P for nonlinearity >0.05). ConclusionsRHR during the stable phase after MI was an independent predictor for primary outcome and all-cause death in post-MI patients, and RHR >72 bpm was associated with increased risk for primary outcome and all-cause death.

Do abnormal screening results for chronic diseases motivate inactive people to start exercising? A community-based prospective cohort study in Changhua, Taiwan

ObjectiveExercise improves health, but illnesses can cause changes in exercise behavior, including starting or stopping. This study investigated the effects of chronic disease screening on inactive individuals' exercise behavior and analyzed the impact of age and chronic disease history on this relationship using stratified analysis. MethodsUsing a community-based prospective observational cohort design and data from the Changhua Community-Based Integrated Screening (CHCIS) dataset from 2005 to 2020, we examined 12,038 people who were screened at least twice and self-reported having never exercised at their first screening. Changes in exercise behavior were classified as “initiating exercise” and “remaining inactive.” We obtained chronic disease screening results from CHCIS records, which included measurements of waist circumference, blood glucose, blood pressure, triglycerides, and high-density lipoproteins. SAS version 9.4 was used for COX proportional hazards regression. ResultsThe findings indicated that abnormal waist circumference and blood pressure increased the likelihood of initiating exercise compared to normal results. Age stratification showed that those aged 40–49 with abnormal results were more likely to start exercising than normal participants, but not those under 40 or over 65. When stratified by chronic disease history, abnormal screening results correlated with exercise initiation only in groups without chronic disease history, except for those with a history of hyperlipidemia. ConclusionsThis is the first study to demonstrate that abnormal screening results may influence exercise initiation in individuals who have never exercised, and this association varies by screening item, age, and disease history.

Electrocardiography score based on the Minnesota code classification system predicts cardiovascular mortality in an asymptomatic low-risk population

Background The use of a single abnormal finding on electrocardiography (ECG) is not recommended for stratifying the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events in low-risk general populations because of its low discriminative power. However, the value of a scoring system containing multiple abnormal ECG findings for predicting CV death has not been sufficiently evaluated. Methods In a prospective community-based cohort study, 8417 participants without atherosclerotic CV diseases (ASCVDs) and any related symptoms were followed for 18 years. The standard 12-lead ECGs were recorded at baseline and the ECG findings were categorized using the Minnesota code classification. CV deaths were defined as death from myocardial infarction (MI), chronic ischemic heart disease, heart failure, fatal arrhythmia, cerebrovascular event, pulmonary thromboembolism, peripheral vascular disease and sudden cardiac arrest and identified using the Korean National Statistical Office (KOSTAT) database. Results In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard (CPH) model, major and minor ST-T wave abnormalities, atrial fibrillation (AF), Q waves in the anterior leads, the lack of Q waves in the posterior leads, high amplitudes of the left and right precordial leads, left axis deviation and sinus tachycardia were associated with higher risks of CV deaths. The ECG score consisted of these findings showed modest predictive values represented by C-statistics that ranged from 0.632 to 760 during the follow-up and performed better in the early follow-up period. The ECG score independently predicted CV death after adjustment for relevant covariates in a multivariate model, and improved the predictive performance of the 10-year ASCVD risk estimator and a model of conventional risk factors including age, diabetes and current smoking. The combined ECG score (Harrell’s C-index: 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.828–0.876) composed of the ECG score and the conventional risk factors outperformed the 10-year ASCVD risk estimator (Harrell’s C-index: 0.806; 95% CI, 0.780–0.833) and the model of the conventional risk factors (Harrell’s C-index: 0.841, 95% CI, 0.817–0.865) and exhibited an excellent goodness of fit between the predicted and observed probabilities of CV death. Conclusions The ECG score could be useful to predict CV death independently and may add value to the conventional CV risk estimators regarding the risk stratification of CV death in asymptomatic low-risk general populations.