Community-based Cohort Of Patients Research Articles

Osteoporosis-related fractures in men and women with established and early rheumatoid arthritis: predictors and risk compared with the general population

ObjectivesTo study the risk of osteoporosis-related fractures in a community-based sample of men and women with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) overall, as well as early (< 1 year of disease duration, follow-up time maximum 10 years) and established (RA diagnosis since ≥ 5 years on July 1, 1997) RA, compared with the general population. To study potential risk factors for fractures in patients with RA from baseline questionnaire data.MethodsA community-based cohort of patients with RA (n = 1928) was studied and compared to matched general population controls. Information on osteoporosis-related fractures (hip, proximal upper arm, distal forearm and vertebral fractures) during the period July 1, 1997 to December 31, 2017 was obtained by linkage to the Swedish National Inpatient Register and the Cause of Death Register. The incidence of fractures was estimated in patients and controls. Cox regression models were used to assess the relation between RA and the risk of fractures and to assess potential predictors of fractures in RA patients. Analyses were stratified by sex, and performed in all patients with RA, and in subsets with early and established RA.ResultsThe overall incidence of osteoporosis-related fractures in the RA cohort was 10.6 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 9.31; 12.0). There was an increased risk of fractures overall in both men (hazard ratio (HR) 1.55, 95% CI 1.03; 2.34) and women (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.27; 1.83) with RA compared to controls, with significantly increased risk also in the hip. No increased risk of osteoporosis-related fractures overall was seen in patients with early RA (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.69; 1.49). Higher age, longer duration of RA, higher HAQ scores and higher scores in the visual analogue scale for global health were predictors of fractures.ConclusionBoth men and women with RA were at increased risk of osteoporosis-related fractures. Patients with early RA did not have significantly increased risk during the first 10 years of disease in this study.

Prognostic significance of echocardiographic abnormalities in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is recognised as a highly heterogenous condition (1). This extends to its echocardiographic phenotype, which according to the latest ESC diagnostic criteria, can include the presence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), left atrial (LA) enlargement and elevated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) amongst others (2). The relative prognostic significance of these abnormalities however has not been well-described. Purpose The aim of this study was to evaluate the relative prognostic significance of echocardiographic abnormalities in a community-based cohort of patients with HFpEF and elevated NT-proBNP. Methods We analysed the echocardiograms of patients referred from the community with clinical signs of HF and elevated NTproBNP. We specifically evaluated the presence of LVH, LA enlargement and elevated PASP according to EACVI criteria. We excluded patients with NT-proBNP &amp;lt;125 pg/ml. The primary outcome was time to all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalisation. Results The total cohort included 473 patients (mean age 78 years, 66% female, median NT-proBNP 587 pg/ml). Median follow-up was 27 months. 88 individuals had an occurrence of the primary outcome (18.6%). LA enlargement was the commonest abnormality (48.2%), then LVH (37.2%) and elevated PASP (18.4%). After adjustment for age, sex and NTproBNP, LA enlargement was significantly associated with the primary outcome in patients in sinus rhythm but not atrial fibrillation (sinus: hazard ratio 2.02, 95% CI 1.09–3.73, p = 0.025; AF: hazard ratio 0.68, 95% CI 0.31–1.48, p = 0.20; interaction p value 0.013). Neither elevated PASP (HR 1.50, 95% CI 0.94–2.39, p = 0.09) or LVH (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.64–1.55, p = 0.98) were independently associated with the primary outcome. There did however appear to be a stepwise increase in risk based on the number of echocardiographic abnormalities present, with individuals with 2 or more abnormalities being significantly more likely to have an incidence of the primary outcome than those with fewer (Figure). Conclusion There may be differences in prognosis of HFpEF patients based on echocardiographic structural and functional parameters. These may therefore require different therapeutic approaches. The number of abnormalities appear to have a cumulative adverse effect on prognosis.

Ventricular stiffening and chamber contracture in heart failure with higher ejection fraction.

Ancillary analyses from clinical trials have suggested reduced efficacy for neurohormonal antagonists among patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and higher ranges of ejection fraction (EF). A total of 621 patients with HFpEF were grouped into those with low-normal left ventricular EF (LVEF) (HFpEF<65% , n = 319, 50% ≤ LVEF <65%) or HFpEF≥65% (n = 302, LVEF ≥65%), and compared with 149 age-matched controls undergoing comprehensive echocardiography and invasive cardiopulmonary exercise testing. A sensitivity analysis was performed in a second non-invasive community-based cohort of patients with HFpEF (n = 244) and healthy controls without cardiovascular disease (n = 617). Patients with HFpEF≥65% had smaller left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic volume than HFpEF<65% , but LV systolic function assessed by preload recruitable stroke work and stroke work/end-diastolic volume was similarly impaired. Patients with HFpEF≥65% displayed an end-diastolic pressure-volume relationship (EDPVR) that was shifted leftward, with increased LV diastolic stiffness constant β, in both invasive and community-based cohorts. Cardiac filling pressures and pulmonary artery pressures at rest and during exercise were similarly abnormal in all EF subgroups. While patients HFpEF≥57% displayed leftward shifted EDPVR, those with HFpEF<57% had a rightward shifted EDPVR more typical of heart failure with reduced EF. Most pathophysiologic differences in patients with HFpEF and higher EF are related to smaller heart size, increased LV diastolic stiffness, and leftward shift in the EDPVR. These findings may help to explain the absence of efficacy for neurohormonal antagonists in this group and raise a new hypothesis, that interventions to stimulate eccentric LV remodelling and enhance diastolic capacitance may be beneficial for patients with HFpEF and EF in the higher range.

Abstract 15793: Gender-Specific Pathophysiologic Differences in All-Cause Mortality Among Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Introduction: Although the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is higher in men than in women, the onset of AF appears to diminish the survival advantage in women. The pathophysiologic factors underlying survival outcome in AF are not well understood. Methods: A cohort of 3480 Olmsted County, Minnesota residents (mean age 72.8±14 years, 51.8% female) with incident AF who underwent transthoracic echocardiography within 30 days of AF diagnosis [median (IQR) 1, 1-6 days] were retrospectively studied. We examined the association of clinical parameters and survival according to gender. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare overall survival in males and females. Results: Females were older and slimmer than males and more frequently had hypertension, prior stroke, and had higher CHA 2 DS 2 vasc score, pulse pressure and effective arterial elastance. Women also had smaller LV end diastolic dimension with higher LV ejection fraction, LA volume index, E/e prime ratio, and PASP (43.6±13.8 vs 39.1±13.3; &lt;.001). During a mean follow-up of 7.4±6.2 years (median 6.6 years), 2569 patients died. Women had a lower 5-year survival compared to men. The probability of 1- and 5-year survival rates for women vs men were 80.2% vs 84.1% at 1 year and 54.4% vs 63.7% at 5 years (log-rank P &lt;.001). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, after accounting for potential confounders, the independent predictors of mortality were age (HR 1.07 [95% CI 1.06-1.08]), PASP (per 5 unit increment) (HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.09-1.12]), effective arterial elastance (HR 1.06 [95% CI 1.01-1.12]), previous heart failure (HR 1.34 [95% CI 1.20-1.49]), diabetes (HR 1.33 [95% CI 1.20-1.48]), prior stroke (HR 1.26 [95% CI 1.13-1.41]), smoking (HR 1.13 [95% CI 1.06-1.20]), chronic lung disease (HR 1.32 [95% CI 1.20-1.45]), peripheral arterial disease (HR, 1.32 [95% CI 1.18-1.48]), and chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.52 [95% CI 1.38-1.69]). Conclusions: In a community-based cohort of patients with incident AF, markers of arterial stiffness and diastolic dysfunction were more prevalent in women compared to men and were strongly predictive of mortality. Our findings suggest that vascular stiffness may underlie the increased risk of mortality observed in women after a new diagnosis of AF.

Incidence of Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Asymptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis Without Surgical Intervention

Optimal management of patients with asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis is uncertain, due to advances in medical care and a lack of contemporary data comparing medical and surgical treatment. To estimate stroke outcomes among patients with medically treated asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis who did not undergo surgical intervention. Retrospective cohort study that included 3737 adult participants with asymptomatic severe (70%-99%) carotid stenosis diagnosed between 2008 and 2012 and no prior intervention or ipsilateral neurologic event in the prior 6 months. Participants received follow-up through 2019, and all were members of an integrated US regional health system serving 4.5 million members. Imaging diagnosis of asymptomatic carotid stenosis of 70% to 99%. Occurrence of ipsilateral carotid-related acute ischemic stroke. Censoring occurred with death, disenrollment, or ipsilateral intervention. Among 94 822 patients with qualifying imaging studies, 4230 arteries in 3737 (mean age, 73.8 [SD 9.5 years]; 57.4% male) patients met selection criteria including 2539 arteries in 2314 patients who never received intervention. The mean follow-up in this cohort was 4.1 years (SD 3.6 years). Prior to any intervention, there were 133 ipsilateral strokes with a mean annual stroke rate of 0.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7%-1.2%). The Kaplan-Meier estimate of ipsilateral stroke by 5 years was 4.7% (95% CI, 3.9%-5.7%). In a community-based cohort of patients with asymptomatic severe carotid stenosis who did not undergo surgical intervention, the estimated rate of ipsilateral carotid-related acute ischemic stroke was 4.7% over 5 years. These findings may inform decision-making regarding surgical and medical treatment for patients with asymptomatic severe carotid artery stenosis.

Clinical significance of new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

AimsThere is limited information about the clinical significance of atrial fibrillation (AF), particularly new‐onset AF, in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in a community‐based patient cohort. This study was carried out to clarify the prevalence and prognostic impact of AF in Japanese HCM patients.Methods and resultsIn 2004, we established a cardiomyopathy registration network in Kochi Prefecture as a prospective study, and finally, 293 patients with HCM were followed. In the patients' cohort, we recently reported the clinical outcomes including mortality and HCM‐related morbid events. HCM‐related adverse cardiovascular events were defined in the following: (i) sudden cardiac death (SCD)‐relevant events including SCD, spontaneous sustained ventricular tachycardia, and appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator discharge; (ii) heart failure (HF) events with the composite of HF death and hospitalization for HF; and (iii) embolic events included embolic stroke‐related death and admission for embolic events. In the present study, we focused on AF and conducted a detailed investigation. At registration, the mean age of the patients was 63 ± 14 years, and 86 patients (29%) had documented AF including paroxysmal AF. Patients with AF at registration were characterized by worse clinical profiles including more advanced age, more symptomatic, more advanced left ventricular, and left atrial remodelling at registration. During a mean follow‐up period of 6.1 ± 3.2 years, a total of 77 HCM‐related adverse events occurred, and the presence of AF at registration was associated with an increased risk of HCM‐related adverse events, particularly heart failure events. During the follow‐up period, an additional 31 patients (11%) had documentation of AF for the first time, defined as new‐onset AF, with an annual incidence of approximately 1.8%, and finally, a total of 117 patients (40%) showed AF. The presence of palpitation and enlarged left atrial diameter, particularly left atrial diameter ≥50 mm, at registration were significant predictors of new‐onset AF. Importantly, the incidence of overall HCM‐related adverse events was further higher in patients with new‐onset AF observed from AF onset than in patients with AF at registration.ConclusionsIn our HCM registry in an aged Japanese community, a significant proportion developed AF. The presence of AF, particularly new‐onset AF, was associated with increased incidence of HCM‐related events. AF may not be just a marker of disease stage but an important trigger of adverse events.

Cognitive Impairment in People with Diabetes-Related Foot Ulceration.

Aims: To determine whether there is an excess of cognitive impairment in patients with type 2 diabetes and foot ulceration. Methods: 55 patients with type 2 diabetes and foot ulcers attending Multidisciplinary Diabetes Foot Ulcer clinics (MDFU cohort) were compared with 56 patients with type 2 diabetes attending Complex Diabetes clinics (CDC cohort) using commonly used screening tests for cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MOCA)), as well as foot self-care, mood and health literacy. MMSE was also compared between the MDFU cohort and a historical community-based cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes (FDS2 cohort). Results: Median MMSE scores were the same in all three groups (28/30). Median MOCA scores did not differ between the MDFU and CDC cohorts (25/30). There were no significant differences in the percentages of patients with MMSE ≤ 24 or MOCA ≤ 25 between MDFU and CDC cohorts (3.6% versus 10.7%, p = 0.27 and 56.4% versus 51.8%, p = 0.71, respectively), findings that did not change after adjustment for age, sex, education, diabetes duration, and random blood glucose. Conclusions: Using conventionally applied instruments, patients with type 2 diabetes and foot ulceration have similar cognition compared with patients without, from either hospital-based clinic or community settings.

A Real-World Comparative Analysis of Carfilzomib and Other Systemic Multiple Myeloma Chemotherapies in the US Community Oncology Setting

IntroductionRecently, novel agents have been approved for the treatment of relapsed multiple myeloma (MM). There is a paucity of real-world outcomes data on these novel treatments. The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to compare time to next treatment (TTNT) between patients who received the most common proteasome inhibitor (PI)-based triplet regimens for relapsed multiple myeloma as their second line of therapy (LOT2).MethodsThe study population consisted of patients who received a carfilzomib (K)-based regimen during the course of treatment for MM between 11/01/2013 and 02/29/2016, were ≥18 years old, were not enrolled in a clinical trial, and had at least 2 visits at a US Oncology Network (USON) clinic. PI-based triplet regimens received by at least 15 patients in LOT2 were considered for this analysis: K+lenalidomide with dexamethasone or prednisone (KRd), bortezomib+lenalidomide with either steroid (VRd), and bortezomib+cyclophosphamide with either steroid (VCyd). Data were captured on lines of therapy (LOT), systemic therapy regimens, and treatment administration dates from the US Oncology Network's iKnowMed® electronic health records (EHR). Treatment sequencing rules were created to define criteria for the advancement of the line of therapy based on the specific regimens, duration of use, and administration dates. TTNT was estimated from date of initiation of LOT2 therapy to the first administration date of the next line of therapy with the Kaplan-Meier method, using log-rank tests for comparison. Death or progression to next treatment were considered failure events. Patients who were lost to follow up or did not experience a failure event during the study period were censored. Hazards ratios (and 95% CIs) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression modeling, adjusting for baseline age, sex, race, geographic region of the practice, number of comorbidities, stage, body mass index (BMI), prior cancer history, performance status, and serum creatinine. A limitation of our real-world data is that a small proportion of LOT indicators may be misclassified due to data inconsistencies. Furthermore, while use of a large geographically dispersed cohort of community-based patients improves generalizability, the results from our data may not be completely generalizable to other community-based practices.ResultsA total of 718 patients received a K-containing regimen at some time (LOT 1 to LOT5) during the course of their MM treatment (Table 1); of these, 156 patients received a LOT2 PI-containing triplet including KRd (n =112; 71.8%), VRd (n = 27; 17.3%), and VCyd (n = 17; 10.9%). Mean baseline age for these 156 patients was 64.8 (SD: 11.3) years. In the KRd group, mean age was 64.7 (SD: 11.6) years, whereas in the VRd and VCyd groups, mean ages were 62.4 (SD: 10.9) and 69.1 (SD: 9.1), respectively. Overall, 57.7% of the study population was male. 64.3% of the KRd group were male, compared to 48.1% of the VRd group and 29.4% of the VCyd group. These PI-based regimen groups were not significantly different across a range of baseline clinical characteristics including number of comorbidities, stage at diagnosis, ECOG, and serum creatinine (Table). Median TTNT was greatest for the KRd group (25.3 months; 95% CI: 19.71-NR), compared to the VRd or VCyd groups (median TTNT for VRd: 10.2 months, 95% CI: 4.24-12.71, and for VCyd: 6.5 months,95% CI: 3.02-12.78; log-rank p<.0001). The adjusted HR for KRd was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.11-0.37), indicating an almost 80% lower risk of progression to next treatment or death among KRd patients, compared to patients who received VRd (referent) in LOT2. Patients receiving VCyd had a similar adjusted risk for progression to next treatment or death, compared to patients receiving VRd (adj. HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.43-2.13).ConclusionsOur findings indicate that MM patients who received KRd in LOT2 had significantly improved TTNT, compared to those who received VRd or VCyd. Considering the real-world nature of these data, the median TTNT observed with KRd appears to be consistent with the findings on progression-free survival for KRd in the phase 3 ASPIRE trial (median PFS: ITT population =26.3 months; LOT2 = 29.6 months). These findings confirm the value of KRd as an important therapeutic option for patients with MM at first relapse. [Display omitted] DisclosuresRifkin:McKesson Specialty Health: Employment; Takeda: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Medhekar:Amgen Inc.: Employment, Equity Ownership. Amirian:McKesson Specialty Health: Employment. Wilson:McKesson Specialty Health: Employment. Boyd:McKesson Specialty Health: Employment. Mezzi:Amgen, Inc.: Employment, Equity Ownership. Panjabi:Amgen Inc.: Employment, Equity Ownership.

An original risk scheme to predict in-hospital major bleeding in acute pulmonary embolism: The Syncope, Troponin, Anemia, Anti-platelet therapy, Renal dysfunction (STAR) bleeding score

Bleeding-prediction score may help guiding management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We aimed to develop the first risk stratification scheme to predict in-hospital major bleeding in PE. We recorded in-hospital characteristics of 2754 PE patients included in a prospective observational multicenter cohort study contributing 18,028 person-days of follow-up. Bleeding events were independently adjudicated using medical record review. We used the best subsets logistic regression to select candidates included in the in-hospital major bleeding score. The final model was internally validated by bootstrapping (500 replicates) and compared to the PE-derived long-term bleeding RIETE and VTE-BLEED scores. We observed 82 first in-hospital major bleeding [3.0% (95% CI, 2.4–3.7]. Five independent variables were included in the final model and weighted by regression coefficients: anemia (hemoglobin < 12 g/dL) (2.5 points), syncope (2 points), concomitant medication usage predisposing to bleeding (1.5 points), renal dysfunction (eGFRCKD-EPI < 60 ml.min-1) (1 point), and positive troponin (1 point) (i.e., STAR bleeding score). Major bleeding rates ranged from 0.4% (0 point) to 15.6% (≥ 6 points). Collapsed into a 3-category risk score, major bleeding rates were 0.87% in the low risk group (0–1.5 points), 3.9% in intermediate risk (2–3 points), and 8.1% in high risk (> 3 points). The C-index for the continuous risk score was 0.78 and remained good (i.e., 0.75) in the bootstrapped internal validation. The global fit of the STAR bleeding score was significantly higher than those of the RIETE and VTE-BLED scores allowing net reclassification improvement of major bleeding predicted probabilities (37% and 41%, respectively). A simple 5-variable risk score was effective in quantifying the risk of PE-related in-hospital major bleeding in a large community-based cohort of patients. External validations are warranted.

Validation of the Updated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Screening Algorithm in a Community-Based Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis of Multiple Etiologies

The Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) Early detection Screening (HES) algorithm has been proposed to improve the performance of the serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) test in surveillance for HCC. The HES algorithm incorporates data on age, level of alanine aminotransferase, platelet count, and rate of AFP change to increase likelihood of earlier detection and thereby reduce HCC-related mortality. We updated the HES algorithm to include etiology of cirrhosis and validated it in a community-based cohort. We collected data from the Veterans Health Administration, from 2010 through 2015, on etiologies for HCC, including hepatitis C, hepatitis B, alcoholic liver disease, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. We used these data to update the HES algorithm and tested its accuracy using data from patients with cirrhosis in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California healthcare system (validation cohort). Among the 7432 patients with cirrhosis in the validation cohort, 1102 were diagnosed with HCC during a median follow-up time of 3.21 years; 709 patients had early-stage HCC. The HES algorithm identified patients who would receive a diagnosis of early-stage HCC within the next 6 months with 51.20% sensitivity and 90.00% specificity, compared with 46.02% sensitivity for the AFP test alone (5.18% absolute improvement; P = .0015). In HCC screening, a positive result from HES or AFP test leads to follow-up evaluation with more sensitive imaging methods. The number of early-stage HCC cases detected per 1000 imaging analyses were 136.46 with the HES algorithm vs 118.01 with the AFP test alone (P < .0005). The HES algorithm identified 56.00% of patients with HCC in the 6 months before their diagnosis despite no detection of nodules by surveillance ultrasound; the AFP test identified only 50.00% of these patients. We validated the HES algorithm using data from a diverse community-based cohort of patients with cirrhosis. The algorithm offers a modest but useful advantage over the AFP test alone in detection of early-stage HCC with virtually no added cost.

Impact of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis on Longitudinal Health-care Utilization in a Community-Based Cohort of Patients

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a rare, chronic lung disease associated with substantial symptom burden, morbidity, and cost. Delivery of high-quality effective care in IPF requires understanding health-care resource utilization (HRU) patterns; however, longitudinal data from real-world populations are limited. This study aimed to define HRU attributable to IPF by evaluating a longitudinal cohort of community patients with IPF compared with matched control subjects. Incident IPF cases were identified in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California electronic health records (2000-2015) using case-validated code-based algorithms. IPF cases were compared with matched control subjects by age, sex, and length of enrollment. Annual rates of HRU measures were assessed during the 5 years pre- and postdiagnosis. Poisson generalized estimating equations were used to estimate adjusted case-control differences in HRU. IPF treatment trends were assessed before and after the availability of IPF-specific medications. A total of 691 IPF cases were identified and matched with 3,452 control subjects. Adjusted rates of all diagnostic procedures were significantly increased (P< .001) for IPF cases compared with control subjects in both the pre- and postindex periods, including chest CT scans (pre-relative risk [RR], 80.35; post-RR, 32.79), 6-min walk tests (pre-RR, 20.81; post-RR, 34.49), and pulmonary function tests (pre-RR, 9.50; post-RR, 13.24). All-cause hospitalizations (pre-RR, 1.42; post-RR, 2.33) and outpatient visits (pre-RR, 1.22; post-RR, 1.80) were significantly higher among cases compared with control subjects during both the preindex (P< .05) and postindex (P< .001) periods. We observed use of immunosuppressive and IPF-specific therapies prior to diagnosis, and high rates of corticosteroid use before and after diagnosis. This study defines a marked increase in HRU in patients with IPF compared with control subjects, with accelerated use beginning at least 1 year prediagnosis and elevated use sustained over the following 5 years. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate longitudinal medication trends in IPF. Collectively, this information is foundational to advancing IPF care delivery models and supporting clinical decision-making.

Identification of Individuals at Increased Risk for Pancreatic Cancer in a Community-Based Cohort of Patients With Suspected Chronic Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES:We lack reliable methods for identifying patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) at increased risk for pancreatic cancer. We aimed to identify radiographic parameters associated with pancreatic cancer in this population.METHODS:We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with suspected CP within an integrated healthcare system in Southern California in 2006–2015. Patients were identified by a diagnostic code and confirmed by imaging findings (parenchymal calcification, ductal stones, glandular atrophy, pseudocyst, main duct dilatation, duct irregularity, abnormal side branch, or stricture) defined by the natural language processing of radiographic reports. We used Cox regression to determine the relationship of smoking, alcohol use, acute pancreatitis, diabetes, body mass index, and imaging features with the risk of incident pancreatic cancer at least 1 year after abnormal pancreas imaging.RESULTS:We identified 1,766 patients with a diagnostic code and an imaging feature for CP with a median follow-up of 4.5 years. There were 46 incident pancreatic cancer cases. Factors that predicted incident pancreatic cancer after 1-year of follow-up included obesity (hazard ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval: 1.2–6.1) and duct dilatation (hazard ratio 10.5, 95% confidence limit: 4.0–27). Five-year incidence of pancreatic cancer in this population with duct dilatation was 6.3%.DISCUSSION:High incidence of pancreatic cancer in suspected patients with CP with pancreatic duct dilatation warrants regular surveillance for pancreatic cancer.

Effects of the low carbohydrate, high fat diet on glycemic control and body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes: experience from a community-based cohort

ObjectiveThe optimal diet to improve glycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes remains unclear. Low carbohydrate, high fat (LCHF) diets can improve glycemic control, but have not been investigated in...

Risk factors for injury in a community-treated cohort of patients with epilepsy in Australia.

There remains a paucity of knowledge regarding specific epilepsy-related risk factors for accidents and injuries in people with epilepsy. Injury studies in people with epilepsy are overrepresented, with tertiary based populations that are prone to bias from severe disease. This study aims to assess the contribution of epilepsy-related risk factors to injuries in a community-based cohort. We performed a retrospective nested case-control study on patients recruited into the Tasmanian Epilepsy Register (TER) from July 1, 2001 to June 30, 2002. The TER is a community-based cohort of patients with epilepsy in Tasmania, Australia, recruited from the national prescription database and interviewed for epilepsy diagnosis, injuries, and risk factors using validated questionnaires with diagnosis made by an epilepsy specialist. The primary outcome measures were lifetime and recent 12-month injury. Multivariate logistic regression with multiple imputation modeling responder nondisclosure was performed, adjusting for age, gender, region, socioeconomic status, seizure frequency, and epilepsy duration. A total of 819 patients with epilepsy were included in this study. Ten percent of patients experienced an injury in the preceding year. Before adjusting for seizure frequency, any seizure over the past 12 months was associated with recent injury (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 7.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.17-14.96). Impaired awareness, cluster seizures, sleep-only seizures, and convulsive seizure were characteristics found to significantly influence injuries irrespective of seizure frequency. Although a warning appeared initially protective for recent injuries (OR = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.22-0.69), this was entirely explained by seizure frequency, with the effect becoming nonsignificant. Likely due to their unpredictable nature, seizures expose patients with epilepsy to a high risk of life-threatening injury. These findings emphasize the importance of seizure freedom for maximizing the safety of patients with epilepsy.

Determinants of time to institutionalisation and related healthcare and societal costs in a community-based cohort of patients with Alzheimer\u2019s disease dementia

ObjectivesTo examine the costs of caring for community-dwelling patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia in relation to the time to institutionalisation.MethodsGERAS was a prospective, non-interventional cohort study in community-dwelling patients with AD dementia and their caregivers in three European countries. Using identified factors associated with time to institutionalisation, models were developed to estimate the time to institutionalisation for all patients. Estimates of monthly total societal costs, patient healthcare costs and total patient costs (healthcare and social care together) prior to institutionalisation were developed as a function of the time to institutionalisation.ResultsOf the 1495 patients assessed at baseline, 307 (20.5%) were institutionalised over 36 months. Disease severity at baseline [based on Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores] was associated with risk of being institutionalised during follow up (p < 0.001). Having a non-spousal informal caregiver was associated with a faster time to institutionalisation (944 fewer days versus having a spousal caregiver), as was each one-point worsening in baseline score of MMSE, instrumental activities of daily living and behavioural disturbance (67, 50 and 30 fewer days, respectively). Total societal costs, total patient costs and, to a lesser extent, patient healthcare-only costs were associated with time to institutionalisation. In the 5 years pre-institutionalisation, monthly total societal costs increased by more than £1000 (€1166 equivalent for 2010) from £1900 to £3160 and monthly total patient costs almost doubled from £770 to £1529.ConclusionsTotal societal costs and total patient costs rise steeply as community-dwelling patients with AD dementia approach institutionalisation.

Disparities in the Use of Programmed Death 1 Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors.

Amid growing excitement for immune checkpoint inhibitors of programmed death protein 1 (anti-PD1 agents), little is known about whether race- or sex-based disparities exist in their use. In this observational study, we constructed a large and mostly community-based cohort of patients with advanced stage cancers, including melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and renal cell carcinoma, to compare the odds of receiving systemic treatment with or without anti-PD1 agents by race and by sex. In multivariable models that adjusted for age, stage, and number of prior anticancer therapies, we found no significant race-based disparities in anti-PD1 treatment. However, among patients with NSCLC, males had significantly higher odds of receiving anti-PD1 treatment compared with females (odds ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.24, p = .02). This finding suggests that as anti-PD1 agents enter the market to transform patient care, it will be critical to monitor for disparities in the use of these drugs.

P1184Blood biomarkers associated with atrial fibrillation in a community-based cohort of patients presenting acutely to hospital

P1184Blood biomarkers associated with atrial fibrillation in a community-based cohort of patients presenting acutely to hospital

Patients' Characteristics and Clinical Course of Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in a Regional Japanese Cohort - Results From Kochi RYOMA Study.

There have been few studies on the clinical course of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in a community-based patient cohort in Japan.Methods and Results:In 2004, we established a cardiomyopathy registration network in Kochi Prefecture (the Kochi RYOMA study) that consisted of 9 hospitals, and finally, 293 patients with HCM were followed. The ages at registration and at diagnosis were 63±14 and 56±16 years, respectively, and 197 patients (67%) were male. HCM-related deaths occurred in 23 patients during a mean follow-up period of 6.1±3.2 years. The HCM-related 5-year survival rate was 94%. In addition, a total of 77 cardiovascular events that were clinically severe occurred in 70 patients, and the HCM-related 5-year event-free rate was 80%. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analysis showed that the presence of NYHA class III at registration was a significant predictor of HCM-related deaths and that the presence of atrial fibrillation, lower fractional shortening and presence of left ventricular outflow tract obstruction in addition to NYHA class III were significant predictors of cardiovascular events. In our unselected registry in an aged Japanese community, HCM mortality was favorable, but one-fifth of the patients commonly suffered from HCM-related adverse cardiovascular events during the 5-year follow-up period. Careful management of HCM patients is needed, particularly for those with the above-mentioned clinical determinants.

Mortality, morbidity and medical resources utilization of patients with schizophrenia: A case-control community-based study

Patients with schizophrenia have higher level of mortality and physical comorbidity compared to control population. However the association to primary-, secondary- and tertiary-medical resources utilization is not clear. We used a retrospective community-based cohort of patients with schizophrenia (n=1389; age 37.53 years, 64.3% males) and, age-, gender-, and socioeconomic status-matched controls (n=4095; age 37.34 years; 64.3% males) who were followed-up for nine years. Mortality rate of patients was almost twice as high as that of matched controls (7% versus 3.8%). Diagnoses of ischemic heart disease and hypertension were more prevalent among controls than patients (8.2% versus 5%, and 21.6% versus 15.8%, respectively). Tertiary medical resources utilization was higher among patients with schizophrenia than control population (mean hospital admissions per year: 0.2 versus 0.12, emergency department visits: 0.48 versus 0.36). Patients that died were more likely to have cardiovascular disease, to be admitted to general hospital and to spend more days in hospital than patients that did not die. There is a discrepancy between lower rates of cardiovascular disease diagnoses but higher rates of mortality and tertiary medical resources utilization among patients with schizophrenia when compared to control population. This may stem from an under-diagnosis and, eventually, under-treatment of these patients.

B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Ventricular Dysfunction in the Prediction of Cardiovascular Events and Death in Hypertension.

The prevalence and morbidity of hypertension continues to grow globally and improved methods of stratifying risk and identifying organ damage earlier are required. Methods such as echocardiography and population-based risk scores are suggested by guidelines as approaches to aid in risk stratification. However, biomarkers such as natriuretic peptides may help provide such an approach. We analyzed data from the screening to prevent heart failure cohort including participants with hypertension with and without a history of a cardiovascular (CV) event at baseline. We investigated the ability of ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography at baseline and of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels in predicting future major adverse CV events (MACE) and death. We also investigated the use of Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) to predict these events in the uncomplicated cohort. In total, 572 patients (427 with uncomplicated hypertension) were included. Thirty-three patients had MACE or died during follow up. In a univariate analysis, BNP was predictive of MACE and death in all groups. Ventricular dysfunction was not predictive of MACE and death in any group. Both BNP and SCORE had predictive value in this category. However, the magnitude and strength of the continuous association between BNP and events is higher and BNP adds significantly to the predictive value of SCORE as determined by likelihood ratios. The net reclassification improvement for BNP compared to stage B heart failure was 0.20. This study demonstrates that in patients with hypertension, BNP is superior to ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography in the prediction of risk of MACE and death in a community-based cohort of patients with complicated and uncomplicated hypertension.