Common Market For Eastern And Southern Africa Research Articles

An Analysis of the Obligations of COMESA Public Procurement Regulations: The Case of Zimbabwe’s Public Procurement Regulatory Framework

With the coming into force of the new Constitution in 2013, public procurement was given a constitutional status in Zimbabwe. The Constitution sets out vital principles that public procurement legislation must comply with. Moreover, it is a requirement of the Constitution that the governance of Zimbabwe must be pursued in accordance with Zimbabwe’s international law obligations. Zimbabwe is a founding member of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). To accelerate interstate trade, COMESA promulgated Public Procurement Regulations (PPR) for regional competitive bidding across member states. The viability of the regional trade agreements is hinged on mutual cooperation. Pursuant to the foregoing, member states are required to domesticate international agreements into their municipal laws. In 2017, the Zimbabwean legislature passed the Public Procurement and Disposal of Public Assets Act 5 to give effect to the provisions of section 315(1) of the Constitution (Amendment No. 20), 2013. The public procurement reform agenda in Zimbabwe occurred close to a decade after the adoption of the public procurement regulations by COMESA in 2009. This article explores the obligations imposed on Zimbabwe pursuant to the public procurement regulations. This is done by identifying the public procurement principles enumerated in public procurement regulations, which are binding on member states. This article endeavours to answer the question: To what extent does the Zimbabwean legal framework conform to public procurement regulations? This article notes that the legal framework underlying public procurement in Zimbabwe, by and large, conforms to the bar set in the public procurement regulations. Nonetheless, it highlights Zimbabwe’s public procurement shortcomings. The article concludes by making possible legislative recommendations.

Effects of free trade on export efficiency of COMESA member-states

Regional integration in Africa is deepening, and the existing regional groupings are making frantic efforts to remove barriers to trade. One way in which trade among countries can be promoted is through the establishment of free trade areas with member-states. However, regulatory quality that supports international trade in most African countries is exceptionally low. This study investigates the effect of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) free trade area (FTA) on the bilateral export efficiency of member-states over the period 1997–2021. The results obtained using a stochastic frontier specification of the gravity model and panel data of 16 exporting COMESA member-states show a positive effect of the COMESA free trade area on export efficiency. In addition, the study finds regulatory quality to have a positive impact on export efficiency. Controlling for regulatory quality, the results also show that the FTA stimulates export efficiency. Hence, non-FTA COMESA members ought to contemplate joining the FTA in order to expand their respective exports with other member-states to their maximum potential.

Contribution of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa in Poverty Alleviation: A Case of Trade Liberalisation in Zambia

Background: This study was undertaken due to high levels of poverty in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Member States. The overall objective of the study was to explore the contribution of COMESA in the fight against poverty in Africa, a case study of Zambia from 2010-2021. The specific objective in this article was to explore the Contribution of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa in Poverty Alleviation, a case of trade liberalisation in Zambia. The study employed qualitative approach with an exploratory research design and critical case sampling to choose 13 key respondents to explore the contribution of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa in Poverty alleviation in Zambia from 2010-2021. Primary data was analysed from 13 key respondents selected purposively using an interview guide to support secondary data. Data was analysed using thematic and content analysis. This study found that COMESA was established by a treaty in December 1994 as a basis for trade liberalisation. The aim of trade liberalisation was to remove tariffs and non-tariff barriers to reduce the cost of doing business to create employment hence contributing to poverty alleviation. Zambia embarked on trade liberalisation and received financial support from COMESA and its international cooperating partners of development to achieve trade liberalisation. The study established that COMESA had been significant in the fight against poverty in Zambia. However, despite the trade reforms implemented, the study established that poverty levels in Zambia had not reduced since 2010 instead there had been an increase from 54.4 % in 2020 to 60.3 % in 2021. Zambia requires a clear regulatory framework predictable for business planning with a conducive legal business environment that promote trade through innovative policy framework targeting various sectors of the economy to generate income activities and employment. There must be regular review of the trade liberalisation rules to ensure coherence and compliance with COMESA rules in order to realise the gains of trade.

Contribution of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa in the Fight Against Poverty in Zambia Through Private Development and Promotion of Foreign Direct Investment

Background: This study was undertaken due to high levels of poverty in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Member States. The overall objective of the study was to explore the contribution of COMESA in the fight against poverty in Africa, a case study of Zambia from 2010-2021. The specific objective in this article was to explore the Contribution of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa in fight against poverty in Zambia through private development. The study employed qualitative approach with an exploratory research design and critical case sampling to choose 13 key respondents to explore the contribution of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa in Zambia through private sector development from 2010-2021. Primary data was analysed from 13 key respondents selected purposively using an interview guide to support secondary data. Data was analysed using thematic and content analysis. This study found that COMESA was established by a treaty in December 1994 as a basis for private sector development and promotion of foreign direct investment in the region with a view to create employment and income generating activities contributing to poverty alleviation. Zambia embarked on private sector development and promotion of foreign direct investment with the financial support from COMESA and its international cooperating partners of development. The study established that COMESA had been significant in the fight against poverty in Zambia. However, despite the trade reforms implemented, the study established that poverty levels in Zambia had not reduced since 2010 instead there had been an increase from 54.4 % in 2020 to 60.3 % in 2021. Zambia requires a clear regulatory framework predictable for business planning with a conducive legal business environment that promote the private sector and foreign direct investment with an enabling business environment and innovative policy framework targeting various sectors of the economy.

Contribution of COMESA in the Fight Against Poverty in Zambia Through Trade Facilitation

Background: This study was undertaken due to high levels of poverty in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Member States. The study endeavored to explore the Contribution of COMESA in the fight against poverty in Zambia through trade facilitation. The study employed qualitative approach with an exploratory research design and critical case sampling to choose 13 key respondents to explore the contribution of COMESA in the fight against poverty in Zambia through trade facilitation. Primary data was analysed from 13 key respondents selected purposively using an interview guide to support secondary data. Data was analysed using thematic and content analysis. According to the World Bank (2017), trade facilitation contains provisions for expediting the movement, release, clearance of goods, goods in-transit, simplification, standardisation and harmonisation of procedures and associated information flows required to move goods from the seller to the buyer for payment. Zambia implemented COMESA’s simplified trade regime (COMESA-STR) for small cross- border traders. The Simplified Trade Regime (STR) basically aimed to formalise informal cross-border trade (ICBT) by putting in place instruments and mechanisms tailored to the trading requirements of small-scale traders that were decentralised to border areas where informal trade was rampant with the view to facilitate ease of access by small traders. The Simplified Trade Regime (STR) made possible for the small-scale cross-border traders to benefit from the COMESA’s preferential trading arrangement with the reduction of tariffs on selected goods. The concept One Stop Border Posts (OSBPs) was also implemented in Zambia and other related trade facilitation measures to support businesses.

Trade–peace conundrum in Africa: The moderating effects of poverty and inequality

AbstractThis paper examines the trade–peace nexus in Africa and ascertains how poverty and inequality tilt the relationship in the eight regional (economic) blocs in Africa, viz. the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Community of Sahel–Saharan States (CEN–SAD), the East African Community (EAC), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), from 1998 to 2020 using the Driscoll–Kraay estimate. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating the peace effect of trade in Africa by the regional (economic) blocs to allow for in‐depth and context‐specific analysis. The paper also expands the scope of existing studies by examining the direct effect of poverty and inequality on peace in addition to the indirect effect that is revealed through their interactions with trade integrations. The findings reveal that trade promotes peace in Africa, while wide income inequality and a large poverty gap increase the likelihood of conflict. The interaction of poverty and inequality with trade integration shows that while the poverty level does not improve the effect of trade on peace, inequality reduces the impact of trade on peace. The study concludes that poverty and inequality play significant roles in the trade–peace nexus in Africa. Policy recommendations are discussed.

Zambiaʼs Overlapping Membership in SADC and COMESA

Africaʼs aspiration for integration exceeds that of any other continent. This goal has resulted in an unsustainable situation in which African countries frequently belong to two or more regional entities. It is vital to emphasize that regardless of the shared objectives of any African regional economic community, most members will prioritize their national interests over anything else. As a result of this predicament, some countries, such as Zambia, have chosen a strategy of overlapping membership, belonging to various organizations within the region. The studyʼs goal is to objectively examine overlapping membership as a benefit and a barrier to regional integration. This article uses Zambiaʼs experience in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) as a case study. This article examines Zambiaʼs overlapping membership in these regional economic communities (RECs) using realist theory and integration theory. The author finds that, while Zambia is an active participant and reaps benefits in both regional communities, being a dual member of SADC and COMESA presents economic and legal challenges

Impact of digital financial innovation on financial system development in Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) countries

PurposeThis paper aims to assess the impact of digital financial innovation on financial system development in Common Market for eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). This paper evaluates the dynamic relationship between digital financial innovation measures and financial system development using time series data from COMESA countries for the period 1997–2019.Design/methodology/approachA dynamic autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was adopted and the mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) of the model were estimated to evaluate the short- and long-run impact. In addition, the dynamic generalized method of moments (DGMM) was adopted for a robustness check. The Hausman test results show PMG to be the most consistent and efficient estimator, while the coefficient of lagged dependent variable of different GMM is less than the fixed effect coefficient, and, as such, suggests system GMM is the most suitable estimator. Data for the study were sourced from World Bank Development Indicator (WDI, 2020), World Governance Indicator (WGI, 2020) and World Bank Global Financial Development Database (GFD, 2020).FindingsThe result shows that digital financial innovation significantly impacts financial system development in the long run. As such, the evidence revealed that automated teller machines (ATMs), point of sale (POS), mobile payments (MP) and mobile banking are significant and contribute positively to financial system development in the long run, while mobile money (MM) and Internet banking (INB) are insignificant but exhibit positive and inverse relationship with financial development respectively. Further investigation revealed that institutional quality and a stable macroeconomic environment including their interactive term are significantly imperative in predicting financial system development in the COMESA region.Practical implicationsResearchers recommend a cohesive and conscious policy that would checkmate the divergence in the short run and suggest a common regional innovative financial strategy that could be pursued to incentivize technology transfer needed to promote financial system development in the long run. More so, plausible product and process innovations may be adapted to complement innovative institutions in the different components of the COMESA financial system.Social implicationsDigital financial innovation services if well managed increase the inherent benefits in financial system development.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents new background information on digital financial innovation that may stimulate the development of the financial system, particularly in the COMESA region. It also exposes the relevance of digital financial innovation, institutional quality and stable macroeconomic environment as well as their interactive effect on COMESA financial system development.

How the African Continental Free Trade Area impacts firms’ export survival: Some lessons from Kenya

The potential benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) have taken center stage in recent policy and scholarly debates. We contribute to this discussion by drawing insights from our assessment of the current levels of export survival across the following agreements: the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC), and the overall economic integration agreement (EIA). Using monthly firm-product-destination customs transaction data from Kenya for the period January 2006 to December 2017, we find that the average duration of trading is longer under an agreement than when there is no agreement in place by 1.12 months. The mean duration of exporting under EAC exceeds that of COMESA by 1.47 months. The probit regression results with random effects reveal that trade agreements reduce the hazard rate for exports. However, the effect differs depending on the agreement’s depth and extent: The effect is negative for the EAC and positive for the COMESA. We also find that the ‘timing’ effect differs depending on the nature of the agreement. Overall, while the AfCFTA may expand market access, it might not guarantee low failure rates for exporters.

Contribution of Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) in the Fight against Poverty in Zambia through Agriculture and Rural Development from 2010-2021

Background: The study was undertaken due to high levels of poverty in the COMESA region. It endeavoured to explore the contribution by COMESA towards the elimination of poverty using Agriculture and Rural development strategies. The objective of the study was to establish the contribution of COMESA in the fight against poverty in Zambia through Agriculture and rural development. The study employed qualitative approach with an exploratory research design and critical case sampling to choose 13 key informants to explore the contribution of COMESA in the fight against poverty in Zambia. Primary data was used from 13 key informants selected purposively using an interview guide to support secondary data. Data was analysed using thematic and content analysis. The study established that COMESA had been significant in the fight against poverty in Zambia. The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) supported Zambia’s agricultural development policy formulation and implementation amongst others, establishing clear commitment to deliver on investing 10 percent of national budgets in the agricultural sector and achieving a six percent growth in agricultural domestic product. It was established that Zambia had worked with Alliance for Commodity Trade in Eastern and Southern Africa (ACTESA) through mobilisation of small-scale farmers in partnership with private and public institutions in regularising policy on staple foods, through policy outreach and research, creating market access, and building the capacity of the small-scale farmers to enable them compete in the domestic, regional and international markets. The study further established that Zambia’s livestock development received support from COMESA Livestock Unit which supported efforts aimed at driving sustainable livestock production and productivity, value addition and access to markets in the COMESA region. The Market Linkages Initiative (MLI) supported the ACTESA Secretariat and also focused on promoting growth in food staples trade in Zambia to ensure food security. Zambia through the COMESA Regional Agro-Inputs Programme (COMRAP) implemented by the Alliance for Commodity Trade in Eastern and Southern Africa (ACTESA) in Zambia contributed to the improvement of rural household food security and livelihoods. The Integrated Production and Pest Management Programme (IPPM) became active in Zambia since 2014 and is an implementation mechanism of the support programme for the consolidation of the action framework under the European Union-Africa Partnership on Cotton. The study recommended that the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme should be strengthened as it continues to support investment in agricultural development in Zambia particularly enhancing support to small-scale farmers.

Examination of the relationship between employment protection regulation and unemployment: Panel case study of countries of the COMESA

This paper aims to empirically test the impact of the relationship between the rules concerning the protection of employees and the unemployment rate. The aim is to answer the question of whether there is a positive or negative relationship between stricter employment protection regulation and unemployment, and whether it is statistically significant. The methodology used is from the panel data analysis of the multifactorial regression model with fixed and random effects and the generalized method of moments (GMM) model. Fella (2000) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2004), find that any tightening of regulations regarding the protection against individual dismissals of 1 percent, measured through the indicator of the stringency of employment protection — individual dismissals leads to a decrease of unemployment of 1.774 percent. Fujita and Nakajima (2016) point out that the employment rate is procyclical, while the unemployment rate is countercyclical. The research was conducted using secondary data with panel data analysis for 24 countries, 19 of which are current members of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). The results of the endogeneity test show that there are no endogeneity variables (p-values: 0.372, 0.434, and 0.110, retrospectively for the variables scd, sid, and tc).

The Adoption of the Vienna Convention for the International Sale of Goods (CISG) 1980 in Africa—A Critical Analysis

The adoption of the Vienna Convention for the International Sale of Goods (CISG) 1908 in Africa has been slow in comparison to other regions of the world. The Convention is widely regarded as one of the most successful instruments of international commercial law harmonisation. It has been adopted by ninety-four countries from all regions of the world representing more than eighty per cent of international sales. Despite this, only fourteen African countries have adopted it so far. The research question in this article is why African countries have been reluctant to adopt the CISG, compared to countries from other regions around the world. The aim of the article is to establish and analyse the possible reasons why African countries have been so slow in adopting the CISG and to suggest solutions to improve the situation. The reasons include an ignorance about the Convention, apathy on the side of governments and business alike and the existence of other regional harmonisation instruments such as the Organisation for the Harmonisation of Business Law in Africa (OHADA). It is argued that the impetus for greater acceptance lies within the pressure that might emanate from regional trading blocs such as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the newly formed African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFT). It is also argued that greater awareness amongst practitioners may play a future role if the new generation of lawyers are educated on the Convention.

Investing in late-stage clinical trials and manufacturing of product candidates for five major infectious diseases: a modelling study of the benefits and costs of investment in three middle-income countries

SummaryBackgroundInvesting in late-stage clinical trials, trial sites, and production capacity for new health products could improve access to vaccines, therapeutics, and infectious disease diagnostics in middle-income countries. This study assesses the case for such investment in three of these countries: India, Kenya, and South Africa.MethodsWe applied investment case modelling and assessed how many cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) could be averted from the development and manufacturing of new technologies (therapeutics and vaccines) in these countries from 2021 to 2036, for five diseases—HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhoeal diseases. We also estimated the economic benefits that might accrue from making these investments and we developed benefit–cost ratios for each of the three middle-income countries. Our modelling applies two investment case perspectives: a societal perspective with all costs and benefits measured at the societal level, and a country perspective to estimate how much health and economic benefit accrues to each middle-income country for every dollar invested in clinical trials and manufacturing by the middle-income country government. For each perspective, we modelled two scenarios: one that considers only domestic health and economic benefits; and one that includes regional health and economic benefits. In the regional scenarios, we assumed that new products developed and manufactured in India would benefit eight countries in south Asia, whereas new products developed and manufactured in Kenya would benefit all 21 countries in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). We also assumed that all 16 countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) would benefit from products developed and manufactured in South Africa.FindingsFrom 2021 to 2036, product development and manufacturing in Kenya could avert 4·44 million deaths and 206·27 million DALYs in the COMESA region. In South Africa, it could prevent 5·19 million deaths and 253·83 million DALYs in the SADC region. In India, it could avert 9·76 million deaths and 374·42 million DALYs in south Asia. Economic returns would be especially high if new tools were produced for regional markets rather than for domestic markets only. Under a societal perspective, regional returns outweigh investments by a factor of 20·51 in Kenya, 33·27 in South Africa, and 66·56 in India. Under a country perspective, the regional benefit–cost ratios amount to 60·71 in India, 8·78 in Kenya, and 11·88 in South Africa.InterpretationOur study supports the creation of regional hubs for clinical trials and product manufacturing compared with narrow national efforts.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mergers and Acquisitions and the Incorporation of the Public Interest in Africa's Regional Competition Laws: A Case Study of COMESA

AbstractPublic interest issues have the potential to play a significant role in the evaluation of mergers and acquisitions in Africa's regional competition laws. A case in point is the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA): its regional competition authorities have jurisdiction to evaluate transactions within the Common Market. To that end, COMESA's regional competition law enumerates specific public interest factors regarding mergers and acquisitions. Further, COMESA's regional competition law permits the consideration of additional factors under the rubric of public interest, without specifying what these factors are. On this basis, COMESA's regional competition authorities have gradually created precedents on incorporating public interest considerations. This illustrates the point that purist positions towards competition law do not serve Africa's socio-economic development goals. Therefore, the challenge facing COMESA's regional competition authorities is the application of the public interest in a manner that remains faithful to the economic doctrine that underpins competition law.

Assessing the impact of technological progress on trade in COMESA: a PVECM approach

PurposeThe present study investigates the extent to which technological progress influences trade in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) region over the period 1990–2017.Design/methodology/approachMethodologically, this study uses a rigorous dynamic analysis namely a dynamic vector error correction model (PVECM) to carry out the proposed investigation. Such a procedure ensures that the dynamic behaviour under consideration is properly captured, while simultaneously catering for causality issues.FindingsThe results show that technological progress has had a positive and significant effect on trade for the sample of countries in the COMESA region over the years of studies. Also, the long-run results show that local investment and economic growth have a positive impact on international trade. Furthermore, the short-run estimates allowed us to make further analysis of the results. For instance, it is observed that trade as well results in technological progress as per the study. Hence, there is reverse causation or bi-directional causality between trade and technological progress.Originality/valueVery few research studies have been conducted on the link between technological progress and trade in a macroeconomy. The analysis thus is believed to supplement the dwarf literature on the technological progress and trade nexus by bringing additional evidence from COMESA.

Opportunities for Gender Equality in the African Continental Free Trade Area: Drawing Lessons from COMESA

Abstract The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which has been signed by 54 out of the 55 African countries, seeks to create a single continental market for goods and services and facilitate the free movement of people on the continent, thereby boosting and enhancing the competitiveness of intra-African trade. However, while the Agreement Establishing the AfCFTA, under Article 3 (e), emphasises that one of the general objectives of the AfCFTA is to promote gender equality, experiences in other African Regional Economic Communities (RECs) FTAs have proven that gender and gender equality have not been adequately mainstreamed in implementing Free Trade Areas which has resulted in gender inequalities in international trade and commerce. Consequently, the majority of women have been left marginalised in trade and faced with serious challenges in accessing opportunities created by regional trade agreements. This paper sought to examine the potential of the AfCFTA to promote gender equality in Africa through the promotion of intra-African trade opportunities. Using secondary data sources, it drew from the experiences of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) in mainstreaming gender in regional trade to proffer recommendations for the AfCFTA. The concepts of gender equality, gender mainstreaming and trade liberalisation were utilised for conceptual analysis. Recommendations of the research are key in presenting possible options for implementing gender-sensitive measures and strategic interventions that address the differentiated implications of the AfCFTA on both men and women such that the AfCFTA delivers more transformative, inclusive and sustainable economic growth and development in Africa.

Assessment of Intra-trade Intensity within Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa.

Utilizing panel data, this study looked at the intra-trade intensity within the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) region from 2000 to 2016, with a particular focus on export trade. To quantify the intensification of trade among member states, the study employed the trade intensity index. The results of the Trade Intensity Index (TII) show that, while intra-COMESA trade remains low for the majority of members, the intensity result appears to be increasing at a modest rate at the regional level. According to the study, the regional trade strength of intra-COMESA exports climbed from 11% in 2000 to 13.6 percent in 2016. Egypt and Kenya, in particular, have increased their export trade among COMESA members, whereas Libya has the smallest export trade share, followed by Eretria. To expand bilateral trade among member states, it is recommended that COMESA members invest in complementary products (export diversification) where they have a comparative advantage by identifying priority products in the region, improving economic size, implementing the AU's 2012 declaration of Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA), developing regional transport infrastructure, and strengthening institutional democracy.

Investing in Late-Stage Clinical Trials and Manufacturing of Neglected Disease Product Candidates – Modeling the Benefits and Costs of Investments for Three Middle-Income Countries

Background: Investing in late-stage clinical trials, trial sites and production capacity for neglected disease products could improve access to vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics in middle-income countries (MICs). This study assesses the case for such investment in three MICs: India, Kenya, and South Africa. Methods: We modeled how many cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) could be averted from the development and manufacturing of new technologies (therapeutics and vaccines) in these countries. We also estimated the economic benefits that might accrue from making these investments and we develop benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) for each of the three MICs. Findings: From 2021-2036, product development and manufacturing in Kenya could avert 4.4 million deaths and 206.3 million DALYs in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) region. In South Africa, it could prevent 5.2 million deaths and 253.8 million DALYs in the South African Development Community (SADC) region. In India, it could avert almost 9.8 million deaths and 374.4 million DALYs in Southeast Asia. Economic returns would be especially high if new tools were produced for regional markets rather than for domestic markets only. Under a societal perspective, regional returns outweigh investments by a factor of 21 in Kenya, 33 in South Africa, and 68 in India. Interpretation: Our study supports the creation of regional hubs for clinical trials and product manufacturing compared to narrow national efforts. Funding: This study was funded by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Declaration of Interest: This study was approved by Duke University’s institutional review board (IRB). Ethical Approval: All authors report grants from Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation during the conduct of the study.Robert Karanja also serves as Chairman of Steering Committee of the Coalition for Health Research & Development (CHReaD), a policy and advocacy coalition that is funded by BMGF - that also funded this study.

Regional Integration and Trade: The Case of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Free Trade Area

This paper examines the factors influencing intra-Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) trade by empirically investigating whether the Free Trade Area (FTA) contributed to trade growth from 1997 to 2015. Gravity models for exports and imports were estimated to identify the factors influencing intra-COMESA trade. The results show that the FTA has bolstered trade in the region. The results further reveal that the presence of other regional blocs, such as the Southern African Development Community and the European Union, positively influences trade in the region. Positive and significant Linder coefficients were found in both models, indicating that similar underlying factors currently influence the direction of exports and imports. Based on comparative advantages, countries export commodities with little or no value addition. They import differentiated goods, however, consisting mainly of processed materials of the products that they initially exported. Thus, the COMESA FTA benefits are not fully exploited and that export diversification and the development of viable value chains within and among its member countries would appear to be the best policy options. Lastly, the results indicate positive returns to better economic infrastructure. Specifically, the positive and significant coefficient of the transport variable for both exports and imports highlights the importance of good transport infrastructure for enhanced trade in the region. With increased distance, however, the results suggest that information and communications technology in the reporting country is effective at enhancing exports. As such, prioritising investments in transport and information and communications infrastructure is important for COMESA to improve its export performance.

Impact of alternative regional trade arrangements on the Ethiopian economy

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is a Free Trade Area (FTA) regional trade agreement in Africa. Currently, Ethiopia is negotiating to join COMESA FTA. This study assesses the impact of three regional trade arrangements, COMESA FTA, customs unions, and the European Partnership Agreement (EPA) on the economy of Ethiopia. The analysis is based on a static Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, version 9 database. Unlike previous studies, the customs union scenarios are designed at the detailed Harmonized System (HS) level. COMESA FTA (scenario 1) with standard GTAP model results in a welfare loss for Ethiopia due to negative terms of trade and investment-saving effect, but with unemployment closure (scenario 2); Ethiopia enjoys a welfare gain mainly due to endowment effect. In scenario 3 (COMESA customs union) and scenario 4 (European Partnership Agreement), Ethiopia loses due to negative terms of trade and investment-saving effect. There is a large increase in demand for unskilled labor force in Ethiopia by around US$23 million, US$112 million, and US$43 million for scenario 2, 3, and 4 respectively. Moreover, there is a positive output effect for oilseeds, leather, and basic metals across all scenarios. The world, as a whole, enjoys welfare gains with COMESA FTA (scenario 1 and 2). However, with scenario 3 and 4, there is an overall welfare loss. There is no strong reason for Ethiopia to move to the customs union, and the EPA in the short run. Therefore, a transition period is necessary, but it is recommended for Ethiopia to join COMESA FTA.