Combined Effects Of Risk Factors Research Articles

Random survival forest for predicting the combined effects of multiple physiological risk factors on all-cause mortality

Understanding the combined effects of risk factors on all-cause mortality is crucial for implementing effective risk stratification and designing targeted interventions, but such combined effects are understudied. We aim to use survival-tree based machine learning models as more flexible nonparametric techniques to examine the combined effects of multiple physiological risk factors on mortality. More specifically, we (1) study the combined effects between multiple physiological factors and all-cause mortality, (2) identify the five most influential factors and visualize their combined influence on all-cause mortality, and (3) compare the mortality cut-offs with the current clinical thresholds. Data from the 1999–2014 NHANES Survey were linked to National Death Index data with follow-up through 2015 for 17,790 adults. We observed that the five most influential factors affecting mortality are the tobacco smoking biomarker cotinine, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), plasma glucose, sex, and white blood cell count. Specifically, high mortality risk is associated with being male, active smoking, low GFR, elevated plasma glucose levels, and high white blood cell count. The identified mortality-based cutoffs for these factors are mostly consistent with relevant studies and current clinical thresholds. This approach enabled us to identify important cutoffs and provide enhanced risk prediction as an important basis to inform clinical practice and develop new strategies for precision medicine.

Programmatic Approach to Hearing Health in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Programmatic Approach to Hearing Health in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Risk factors combine in a complex manner in assessment for macrosomia

BackgroundMacrosomia is a serious public health concern. This study aimed to examine the combined effects of various risk factors on macrosomia.MethodsThe China Labor and Delivery Survey was a multicenter cross-sectional study that included 96 hospitals. Logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the combined effects of the risk factors for macrosomia. The population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) was calculated for the risk factors.ResultsA total of 64,735 live births, including 3,739 neonates with macrosomia, were used for the analysis. The weighted prevalence of macrosomia was 5.8%. Pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity, diabetes, and gestational hypertension have a synergistic effect on increasing the rate of macrosomia in mothers aged < 36 years. The highest odds ratio (36.15, 95% CI: 34.38–38.02) was observed in female fetuses whose mothers had both gestational hypertension and diabetes. However, in mothers aged ≥ 36 years, the synergistic effect of gestational hypertension and other factors did not exist, and the risk for macrosomia was reduced by 70% in female fetuses of mothers with both gestational hypertension and overweight/obesity. Pre-pregnancy risk factors (pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and advanced maternal age) contributed the most to macrosomia (23.36% of the PAR%), and the single largest risk factor was pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity (17.43% of the PAR%).ConclusionMacrosomia was related to several common, modifiable risk factors. Some factors have combined effects on macrosomia (e.g., pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and diabetes), whereas gestational hypertension varies by maternal age. Strategies based on pre-pregnancy risk factors should be given more attention to reduce the burden of macrosomia.

The course of acute pancreatitis in patients with different BMI groups

ObjectivesTo evaluate the risk factors, Atlanta severity score, Balthazar-CTSI score, and disease course in patients of varying weight with acute pancreatitis (AP). MethodsA retrospective evaluation was made of normal weight (NW), overweight (OW), and obese (OB) patients (n:1134) with respect to demographic findings, diabetes (DM)/hypertension, smoking/alcohol use, etiologies, laboratory findings, Balthazar/Atlanta severity scores, and disease outcomes. After consistency and associations among the BMI, Balthazar, and Atlanta groups were evaluated, combined effects of risk factors on mortality, hospital and ICU stays were re-examined statistically. ResultsIn the OB group, mean age (p < 0.001), female gender (p < 0.001), increased BUN(p < 0.027) and Hct (p = 0.039), DM(p < 0.024), and mortality (p < 0.011) were statistically significant. In the non-NW groups, the rates of complications (40.6%/38.6%), mortality (3.7%/4.9%), interventional procedures (36%/39%), and length of hospital stay (11.6%/9.8%) were increased. Obesity constituted 23.7% of severe AP(SAP) and 50% of mortality. There was no significant relationship between Atlanta and Balthazar groups and BMI, nor between Balthazar and moderate AP (MSAP) to SAP. Old age (p = 0.000), male sex (p = 0.05), obesity (p = 0.046), alcohol (p = 0.014), low Hct (p = 0.044), high CRP (p = 0.024), MSAP/SAP (p = 0.02/(p < 0.001), and any complications (p < 0.001) increased the mortality risk. Female gender (p = 0.024), smoking (p = 0.021), hypertriglyceridemia (p = 0.047), idiopathic etiology (p = 0.023), and MSAP/SAP (p < 0.001) associations increased ICU admission. Co-occurrences of higher Balthazar score (p < 0.001), MSAP/SAP (p < 0.001), all kinds of complications (p < 0.001), and recurrence (p = 0.040) increased the hospital stay (≥11 days). ConclusionsAlthough complications, mortality, longer hospitalization, and interventional procedures were observed more in the overweight and obese, successful prediction of Atlanta severity and Balthazar-CTSI scores based on BMI does not appear to be accurate. OB carries an increased risk for morbidity and mortality. The combined effects of risk factors increased mortality, longer hospital stays, and ICU admission.

Atopic triad (allergic rhinitis, eczema, and asthma) and eye rubbing as risk factors for keratoconus: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Keratoconus (KN), is an eye disorder, characterized by progressive thinning and protrusion of central cornea. A number of conditions such as such as allergy, asthma, eczema, and eye rubbing has been shown to be associated with the development of KN. However, there is a disagreement regarding some of risk factors and their strength so we conducted systematic review and meta-analysis to determine how strongly risk factors such as eye rubbing, and atopic triad associate with KN development and progression. We systematically searched the literature for related studies using specific keywords and key phrases. The studies were scrutinized based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Finally, we extracted relevant qualitative and quantitate information from studies. For meta-analysis we used odds ratio (OR) and their 95% CI were used to draw forest plots. 35 studies were selected in final meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis yielded the combined effect of risk factors with OR of 2.20 and a 95% CI of 1.84–2.64. Furthermore, we found that eye rubbing-related studies had effect size of OR 2.09 with a 95% CI of 1.76–2.49 and a p value of 0.00001. For atopic triad (allergic rhinits, asthma and eczema) related studies, the meta-analysis yielded overall effect size of OR 2.34 with 95% CI of 2.06-2.66. Eye rubbing and atopic triad (allergic rhinitis, eczema, and asthma) are important risk factors for KC development with statistically strong association.

Understanding interactions between risk factors, and assessing the utility of the additive and multiplicative models through simulations.

Understanding the genetic background of complex diseases requires the expansion of studies beyond univariate associations. Therefore, it is important to use interaction assessments of risk factors in order to discover whether, and how genetic risk variants act together on disease development. The principle of interaction analysis is to explore the magnitude of the combined effect of risk factors on disease causation. In this study, we use simulations to investigate different scenarios of causation to show how the magnitude of the effect of two risk factors interact. We mainly focus on the two most commonly used interaction models, the additive and multiplicative risk scales, since there is often confusion regarding their use and interpretation. Our results show that the combined effect is multiplicative when two risk factors are involved in the same chain of events, an interaction called synergism. Synergism is often described as a deviation from additivity, which is a broader term. Our results also confirm that it is often relevant to estimate additive effect relationships, because they correspond to independent risk factors at low disease prevalence. Importantly, we evaluate the threshold of more than two required risk factors for disease causation, called the multifactorial threshold model. We found a simple mathematical relationship (square root) between the threshold and an additive-to-multiplicative linear effect scale (AMLES), where 0 corresponds to an additive effect and 1 to a multiplicative. We propose AMLES as a metric that could be used to test different effects relationships at the same time, given that it can simultaneously reveal additive, multiplicative and intermediate risk effects relationships. Finally, the utility of our simulation study was demonstrated using real data by analyzing and interpreting gene-gene interaction odds ratios from a rheumatoid arthritis case-control cohort.

Abstract 2298: Is smoking a risk factor for second primary lung cancer

Abstract Background: Lung cancer (LC) survivors in the U.S. are increasing in number, with 5-year survival rates improving by 26% over the past decade. Although LC survivors are at high risk of developing a second primary lung cancer (SPLC), risk factors for SPLC have not been established and the impact of tobacco smoking remains controversial. In this study, we examined risk factors for SPLC among participants in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) study, validated our findings with two epidemiologic cohorts–the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO) and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)–and evaluated the impact of smoking cessation on SPLC risk. Methods: We analyzed data from 7,299 initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) cases in MEC who were diagnosed from 1993-2017. Incident IPLC and SPLC were identified via linkage to SEER registries, with SPLC defined by Martini and Melamed criteria. Baseline smoking data were obtained at the time of enrollment (1993-1996) and updated with 10-year follow-up data close to IPLC diagnosis, if available. Fine-Gray regression was used to take into account competing risks and to evaluate the associations between risk factors and SPLC, adjusting for age at IPLC diagnosis and IPLC histology and stage. We conducted validation studies with PLCO (N=3,423 LC patients) and EPIC (N=4,605 LC patients) and evaluated the combined effects of risk factors from all three cohorts using meta-analysis. Results: Among 7,299 MEC participants with IPLC, 167 (2.3%) developed a SPLC. Fine-Gray regression analyses identified several factors that were significantly associated with SPLC risk (P&amp;lt;0.05), which included smoking pack-years (HR 1.12 per 10 pack-years (PY); P=0.004) and smoking intensity (HR 1.21 per 10 cigarettes per day (CPD); P=0.017). Individuals who met the U.S. Preventative Services Task Force's (USPSTF) screening criteria (i.e., aged 55-80, smoked ≥30 PY, and ≤15 years since smoking cessation) at the time of IPLC had a 68% increase in SPLC risk (HR 1.68; P=0.001). Validation studies with PLCO and EPIC showed consistent results; the combined effects based on meta-analysis showed a HR 1.15 per 10 PY (Pmeta=0.022) for smoking pack-years, HR 1.18 per 10 CPD (Pmeta=6.0x10-4) for smoking intensity, and HR 1.70 (Pmeta = 1.9x10-5) for meeting the USPSTF criteria. Subset analysis of MEC participants (N=156) who were current smokers at baseline, had 10-year follow-up smoking data, and were diagnosed with IPLC between baseline and 10-year follow-up showed that smoking cessation was associated with a reduced risk of SPLC (HR=0.25; P=0.005). Conclusions: Smoking is a risk factor for SPLC among LC patients and the USPSTF criteria can potentially aid in identifying those at high risk of SPLC. Smoking cessation may reduce SPLC risk after IPLC diagnosis. Further analysis is required to stratify SPLC risk based on comprehensive risk factors and identify LC survivors at high risk of SPLC for CT screening. Citation Format: Jacqueline V. Aredo, Sophia J. Luo, Rebecca Gardner, Thomas P. Hickey, Thomas L. Riley, Lynne R. Wilkens, Loic Le Marchand, Christopher I. Amos, Rayjean J. Hung, Mattias Johansson, Iona Cheng, Heather A. Wakelee, Summer S. Han. Is smoking a risk factor for second primary lung cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research 2020; 2020 Apr 27-28 and Jun 22-24. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(16 Suppl):Abstract nr 2298.

Predictors of Heterogeneity in Cognitive Function: APOE-e4, Sex, Education, Depression, and Vascular Risk.

Mild cognitive impairment and dementia are clinically heterogeneous disorders influenced by diverse risk factors. Improved characterization of the effect of multiple risk factors influence on specific cognitive functions may improve understanding of mechanisms in early cognitive change and lead to more effective interventions. Structural equation modeling (SEM) simultaneously examined the effects of modifiable (education, depression, and metabolic/vascular risk) and nonmodifiable risk factors (age, sex, and apolipoprotein E-ɛ4 allele [APOE-e4] status) on specific cognitive domains in 461 cognitively normal older adults. The hypothesized model(s) provided an adequate fit for the data. Sex differences in cognition, depression, and vascular risk were found. On average, men were higher in vascular risk with generally lower cognitive performance than women; women were more likely to have depression. APOE-e4 associated with depression but not age, sex, or metabolic/vascular risk. Depression associated with lower executive attention, memory, and language performance, whereas metabolic/vascular risk associated with lower executive attention, memory, and working memory. Older age and lower education are associated with worse performance across the cognitive domains. The combined risk factors accounted for 16%-47% of the variance in the cognitive domains. Results highlight the combined effect of risk factors on cognitive function. Future research is needed to determine whether the multifactorial risk effects on cognition vary by sex. Precision medicine approaches that integrate neuropsychological services may improve diagnostic accuracy and earlier identification of those at risk of cognitive decline.

ВКЛАД КОМБИНАЦИЙ ФАКТОРОВ РИСКА В РАЗВИТИЕ ХРОНИЧЕСКИХ НЕИНФЕКЦИОННЫХ ЗАБОЛЕВАНИЙ

Increased prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCD) and increased related mortality stimulate development of effective methods of their prevention. To date, there are little data on the combined effect of various risk factors on the development of a particular chronic disease, and how much the risk of developing chronic non-communicable diseases increases or decreases with a different combination of risk factors. Purpose. To assess contribution of the combined effect of risk factors into the development of chronic NCD using the method of neural network. Material and methods. Data on 9505 visitors seeking care at the Tomsk health centers were analyzed. To build a multidimensional decision-making model, the authors used the multi-layer perceptron algorithm implemented on the IBM Watson platform. Results. The highest accuracy of disease recognition in the test sample added up to 95.8% for diabetes mellitus. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (84.5%) and coronary heart disease (80.4%) rank second. Lower accuracy was registered for such diseases as asthma (73.6%) and arterial hypertension (73.3%). For the development of diabetes mellitus, such factors as patient’s age, level of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and body mass index (BMI) are equally important. Smoking and gender are identified as the most significant factors for the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The most significant contribution to the development of arterial hypertension is made by body mass index only. Age and BMI turned out to be most significant for coronary heart disease and arterial hypertension. Conclusion. Use of the neural network method makes it possible to determine contribution of risk factors to the development of chronic ICD, to predict the risk of developing a disease depending on the combination of risk factors and to carry out preventive measures in a personalized manner, taking into account clinical situation of every person. Scope of application. The results of the study can be used by managers of medical organizations to optimize approaches to preventive activities. Keywords: risk factors; chronic non-communicable diseases; neural networks

Combined effect of adverse childhood experiences and young age on self-harm ideation after birth

Abstract Background Suicide among postpartum women is a new and emerging issue in developed countries. However, little is known about the combined effect of risk factors on self-harm ideation, although various risk factors have been found. The aim of this study is to examine the combined effect of maternal adverse childhood experiences and maternal age on self-harm ideation among postpartum women. Methods The study comprised a cross-sectional study of 8,074 mothers participating in a 3-month health checkup between September 2013 and August 2014 in City A, Prefecture A, Japan. Main outcome was self-harm ideation assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), item 10. Possible risk factors were maternal adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maternal characteristics, relationship with husband/partner (e.g., feelings when pregnancy was confirmed), household characteristics, child characteristics (e.g., age, sex, birth weight), and postpartum characteristics, and postpartum depression status other than self-harm ideation. Results Postpartum women with 3 or more ACEs and younger age (&amp;lt;25 years old) were 10.3 times more likely than those with no ACEs and older age to have self-harm ideation (95%CI=5.3-20.2). This combined effect was also found in first-time mothers (OR = 7.6, 95%CI=3.2-17.9). Conclusions Postpartum women with 3 or more ACEs and who were younger than 25 years old were at a high risk for self-harm ideation. Providing prevention strategies aimed at mothers with multiple risk factors, especially younger age and ACEs, is warranted. Key messages Mothers with 3 or more ACEs and younger age had a high self-harm ideation risk. Providing prevention strategies for mothers with multiple risk factors is warranted.

Combined effect of adverse childhood experiences and young age on self-harm ideation among postpartum women in Japan

BackgroundSuicide among postpartum women is a new and emerging issue in developed countries. However, little is known about the combined effect of risk factors on self-harm ideation, although various risk factors have been found. The aim of this study is to examine the combined effect of maternal adverse childhood experiences and maternal age on self-harm ideation among postpartum women. MethodsThe study comprised a cross-sectional study of 8074 mothers participating in a 3-month health checkup between September 2013 and August 2014 in City A, Prefecture A, Japan. Main outcome was self-harm ideation assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), item 10. Possible risk factors were maternal adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maternal characteristics, relationship with husband/partner (e.g., feelings when pregnancy was confirmed), household characteristics, child characteristics (e.g., age, sex, birth weight), and postpartum characteristics, and postpartum depression status other than self-harm ideation. ResultsPostpartum women with 3 or more ACEs and younger age (<25 years old) were 10.3 times more likely than those with no ACEs and older age to have self-harm ideation (95%CI = 5.3–20.2). This combined effect was also found in first-time mothers (OR = 7.6, 95%CI = 3.2–17.9). LimitationsStudy limitations are excluding an item on sexual abuse which is one of the ACEs, recall bias and information bias. ConclusionsPostpartum women with 3 or more ACEs and who were younger than 25 years old were at a high risk for self-harm ideation. Providing prevention strategies aimed at mothers with multiple risk factors, especially younger age and ACEs, is warranted.

The combined effects of occupational exposure to noise and other risk factors - a systematic review.

Purpose:Noise-induced health effects exacerbate by many other risk factors. This systematic review aims at shedding light on the combined effects of co-exposure to occupational noise and other factors.Material and Methods:A literature search in Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, and Google Scholar, with appropriate keywords on combined effects of occupational noise, and co-exposure to noise and other factors, revealed 7928 articles which were screened by two researchers. A total of 775 articles were reviewed in full text. We found 149 articles that were relevant and had sufficient quality for analysis.Results:We identified 16 risk factors that exacerbate occupational noise-induced health effects. These factors were classified into four groups: chemical (carbon monoxide (CO), solvents, heavy metals, and other chemicals), physical (lighting, heat, vibration, and cold), personal (age, gender, genetics, smoking, medication, contextual diseases) and occupational (workload and shift work). Hearing loss, hypertension, reduced performance, and cardiovascular strains, are the most important risk factors combined effects due to concurrent exposure to noise and other risk factors.Conclusion:Evidences of combined effects of solvents, vibration, heavy metals, CO, smoking, chemicals, aging, heat, and shiftwork were respectively stronger than for other factors. Most of the studies have investigated only the combined effects of risk factors on hearing, and the evidence for non-auditory effects is still limited, and more studies are warranted. Therefore, in the Hearing Conservation Programs, besides noise, aggravating factors of noise effects should also be taken into account.

Chronic noncommunicable diseases: combined effects of risk factors

Chronic noncommunicable diseases: combined effects of risk factors

The synergic effects of frailty on disability associated with urbanization, multimorbidity, and mental health: implications for public health and medical care

Frailty is garnering increasing interest as a potential target in disability prevention. Since it is uncertain how frailty interacts with multimorbidity, urbanization, and mental health to affect disability, we investigated the epidemiology of frailty and its synergies with these factors. The study enrolled 20,898 participants aged 65 and older living in New Taipei city. All participants received face to face interview to assess frailty, multimorbidity, urban or rural residence, and mental health. Individual versus combined effects of risk factors were evaluated using the Rothman synergy index. Prevalence of frailty was 5.2% overall, 7.2% in multimorbid participants, 9.6% in rural residents, and 20.8% in those with mental disorders. Logistic regression, adjusted for age and sex, showed significant associations between disability and frailty (OR 8.5, 95% CI 6.4–11.2), multimorbidity (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0–1.6), urbanization (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0–1.7), and mental disorders (OR 7.3, 95% CI 5.6–9.5); these factors had a significant synergic effect on disability. Frailty is common in older adults and associated with disability, and was synergetic with multimorbidity, mental disorders, and residing rurally. Targeting frailty prevention and intervention needs a special attention on those vulnerable groups.

The relationship between the level of exposure to stress factors and cannabis in recent onset psychosis

BackgroundThere is a lack of studies investigating the dose-response effect of childhood trauma, recent events and cannabis use on recent psychosis. This study aims to determine the relationship between the level of exposure to stress factors and cannabis use with psychosis and to determine the combination effect among these factors in predicting a psychotic disorder. Methods146 recent onset psychotic (ROP) patients and 61 healthy controls were included. Childhood trauma was evaluated using the childhood trauma questionnaire (CTQ) and recent events using the Holmes-Rahe social readjustment scale. The pattern of cannabis use was assessed by a detailed interview. A hierarchical multiple regression was run in order to determine both the cumulative and independent contribution of each factor in predicting a psychotic disorder. ResultsThe highest levels of exposure to childhood trauma and cannabis were associated with psychosis while neither low nor high recent event exposure was associated. The combined effect of risk factors yielded a significant association with psychosis (×2 = 86.76, p < .001) explaining the 49% of its variation. ROP were more likely to be exposed to one, two or three environmental factors than HC. Exposed to two or all factors were 7.5-fold and 26.7-fold more likely to have a diagnosis of psychosis, respectively. ConclusionsOur study provides evidence for a cumulative and a dose-response effect of environmental factors on recent psychosis. Considering that cannabis use and stress are highly prevalent in the population with psychosis, investigations of their relationships are needed to implement targeted prevention and treatment strategies.

The Influence of Working Conditions on Employees in a Metalworking Place of Employment

Abstract In the working and outside environment a single factor is never found by itself, rather there are always a number of factors the effects of which can be combined, multiplied and thus adversely affect the human body. Evaluating and assessing health risks at work due to exposure to harmful work factors and the working environment is a challenging and long-term process. Limit values are defined for the categorization of types of work in such a way that it is not foreseeable that, according to current scientific knowledge, they will be detrimental to the health of employees. However, these limit values are set for each factor alone and do not take into account the effect of the combined action of individual factors on the human body. The research aimed at assessing the combined effects of risk factors on human health. The experimental proposal of the assessment focuses on the workplace featuring metalworking machinery and technological equipment. The author paid a significant attention to the risk assessment process and synergistic effects of factors.

A novel scoring system to analyze combined effect of lifestyle factors on pancreatic cancer risk: a retrospective case-control study

Although several risk factors for the onset of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have been identified, currently, no scoring system to systemically evaluate the risk of PDAC has been established. In this study, we aimed to use a population of over 1200 patients to build a novel scoring system, and evaluated combined effects of risk factors for PDAC patients.A set of 4904 participants including 1274 PDAC patients and 3630 non-cancer individuals were recruited for the single-center study over 17-year period (1997~2013). Systematic logical analysis were presented for case and control groups, and a risk rating system was constructed to assess combined risk factors. Seven independent risk factors were identified with the increased risk of PDAC, were selected into the risk score. A merged risk assessment model was established, demonstrating significantly increased PDAC risk in following a number of rising scores. Individuals with scores from 1 to more than 4, the responding OR (95% CI) were 3.06 (2.57~3.65), 7.08 (5.63~8.91), 22.4 (14.2~35.4), and 31.4 (12.7~77.5), respectively. The integer-based risk score in the study can be used for risk stratification to accurately evaluate PDAC occurrence at an early stage. This scoring system provides an accurate risk assessment of PDAC risk.

Abstract 2280: Burden of lung cancer in Australia avoidable by modifications to lifestyle-related risk factors

Abstract Aim: The cancer burden avoidable through risk factor modification can be quantified using the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) which combines estimates of the prevalence of the risk factor exposure in the population and the strength of the exposure-cancer association. PAF for risk factors causally related to cancer is most accurately estimated from cohort studies, using analytical approaches that account for death as a competing risk. We provide the first such estimates of the lifestyle-related avoidable lung cancer burden. Methods: Seven contemporary Australian cohort studies (N = 367,772), with comprehensive data on exposure to lifestyle-related risk factors, were linked to the Australian Cancer Database and National Death Index to identify lung cancers and deaths from any cause. The risk factors were harmonised across the studies and the data pooled. The strength of the exposure-cancer and exposure-death associations were estimated using a proportional hazards model, adjusting for age, sex and the other lifestyle exposures. Age- and sex-specific exposure prevalence was estimated from the Australian National Health Survey 2011-2012. These estimates were then combined to calculate the PAFs and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a newly developed method accounting for competing risk of death. Results: During the first 10-years follow-up, 2,030 incident lung cancers and 20,348 deaths were ascertained as first events. Smoking, physical inactivity and insufficient fruit intake were statistically significantly associated with both lung cancer incidence and death. Most of the lung cancer burden (PAF = 73%, CI = 69-76%) was attributable to current or past smoking, with 31% (CI = 27-35%) of the burden attributable to current smokers. Physical activity below Australian recommendations (&amp;lt; 150 minutes of moderate or 75 minutes of vigorous exercise per week) explained 14% (CI = 6-22%) and fruit intake below Australian recommendations (&amp;lt; 2 daily serves) explained 6% (CI = 0-12%) of the lung cancer burden. Each risk factor contributed more to the lung cancer burden in men than in women. Overall, 78% (CI = 74-81%) of the lung cancer burden was attributable to current or past smoking, physical inactivity and insufficient fruit intake. The combined contribution of modifiable risk factors (i.e. excluding past smoking) was 44% (CI = 37-50%). Based on projected Australian cancer incidence rates, this would translate to 59,000 avoidable lung cancers in the next 10 years. Conclusions: According to these joint PAF estimates, the current lung cancer burden in Australia could be reduced by up to half in 10 years by quitting smoking and increasing physical activity and fruit intake to the recommended levels. As the combined effect of risk factors is rarely additive, knowing both individual and joint effects of risk factors on cancer burden is essential in planning cancer interventions and public health policies and predicting their potential impact. Citation Format: Maarit A. Laaksonen, Maria Arriaga, Peter Hull, Karen Canfell, Robert MacInnis, Emily Banks, Graham Giles, Paul Mitchell, Robert Cumming, Barbara-Ann Adelstein, Julie Byles, Dianna J. Magliano, Jonathan Shaw, Anne Taylor, Kay Price, Vasant Hirani, Claire M. Vajdic. Burden of lung cancer in Australia avoidable by modifications to lifestyle-related risk factors [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2017; 2017 Apr 1-5; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2017;77(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 2280. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2017-2280

Development assessment of HIV exposed children aged 6–18 months: a cohort study from North India

ABSTRACTHIV exposed children are vulnerable to developmental delay irrespective of their HIV status due to combined effect of risk factors like poverty, prenatal drug exposure, stress and chronic illness in family and malnutrition. This cohort study assessed the development of 50 HIV exposed children aged 6–18 months at a Pediatric Centre of Excellence in HIV care in India. The development was assessed using Development Assessment Scale for Indian Infants (DASII) at enrolment, 3 and 6 months later. The development quotient (DQ) scores and proportion of children with developmental delay (DQ ≤ 70) were compared among two sub-groups, HIV infected (HI) and HIV exposed uninfected (HEU) children. The various social and clinical factors affecting development were studied by univariate and multivariate analysis. Prevalence of developmental delay was 2.4% in the HEU (n = 41), and 33.3% in HI (n = 9). The DQ of HI was significantly lower than that of HEU at all three assessments. The DQ of HI were also significantly lower compared to the HEU at ages 12.1–18 months (83.37 ± 20.73 vs 94.68 ± 5.13, p = 0.005) and 18.1–24 months (84.55 ± 15.35 vs 94.63 ± 5.86, p = 0.006) respectively. The development of HEU was adversely affected by lower socioeconomic status and presence of wasting. In addition, development of HI was also adversely influenced by presence of stunting and opportunistic infections, advanced disease stage and shorter ART duration. We conclude that with optimum care, HEU can have a normal development, while a considerable proportion of HI may continue to have delayed development.

The organization of medical care for patients with chronic viral hepatitis in the Republic Sakha (Yakutia)

Aim. To identify the risk factors for primary liver cancer in patients with chronic viral hepatitis in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and develop an organizational model of treatment and prevention of viral hepatitis and primary liver cancer. Methods. Clinical, epidemiological and molecular biological methods were used. Results. There is a high prevalence of chronic viral hepatitis B, C and D in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), as well as their distant adverse outcomes. Disclosed the problem of the combined effects of risk factors for primary liver cancer in people indigenous nationality of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), mostly male, living in rural areas, which is the simultaneous replication of hepatitis viruses B, C and D in patients with genetically predisposed changes in the activity of alcohol dehydrogenase and aldehyde dehydrogenase. The modernization of the training algorithms of patients for liver transplantation and management of patients with cirrhosis and liver cancer in the outcome of chronic viral hepatitis, liver transplantation is justified from a related donor with a high level of specific antibodies of patients with primary liver cancer, as well as phasing held medical diagnostic and organizational and methodological measures. Created was an annual Republican «liver-school» for physicians, gastroenterologists, internists, pediatricians, epidemiologists, introduced the publication of conference materials for use on the entire territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Conclusion. Multi-component structural-functional model of service prevention and control of viral hepatitis has allowed to develop a program to address the medical and social protection of different groups of the population to create a unified register «Chronic viral hepatitis in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)», as well as long-term programs for complex vaccine prophylactics and modernization of services for prevention and control of viral hepatitis.