Column-integrated Water Vapor Research Articles

Verification of parameterizations for clear sky downwelling longwave irradiance in the Arctic

Abstract. Ground-based high resolution observations of downward longwave irradiance (DLI), surface air temperature, water vapor surface partial pressure and column amount, zenith sky infrared (IR) radiance in the atmospheric window, and all-sky camera images are regularly obtained at the Thule High Arctic Atmospheric Observatory (THAAO, 76.5° N, 68.8° W), northwestern Greenland. The datasets for the years 2017 and 2018 have been used to assess the performance of different empirical formulas used to infer clear sky DLI. An algorithm to identify clear sky observations has been developed, based on value, variability, and persistence of zenith sky IR radiance. Seventeen different formulas to estimate DLI have been tested against the THAAO dataset, using the originally determined coefficients. The formulas that combine information on total column water vapor and surface air temperature appear to perform better than others, with a mean bias with respect to the measured DLI smaller than 1 W m−2 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) around 6 W m−2. Unexpectedly, some formulas specifically developed for the Arctic are found to produce poor statistical results. This is attributed partly to limitations in the originally used dataset, which does not cover a whole year or is relative to very specific condition (i.e., the presence of an ice sheet). As expected, the bias displays a significant improvement when the coefficients of the different formulas are calculated using the THAAO dataset. The presence of 2 full years of data allows the determination and the applicability of the coefficients for singular years and the evaluation of results. The smallest values of the bias and RMSE reach 0.1 and 5 W m−2, respectively. Overall, the best results are found for formulas that use both surface parameters and total water vapor column content, and have been developed from global datasets. Conversely, formulas that express the atmospheric emissivity as a linear function of the logarithm of the column integrated water vapor appear to reproduce poorly the observations at THAAO.

Quantitative attribution of historical anthropogenic warming on the extreme rainfall event over Henan in July 2021

The ‘21·7’ Henan extreme rainfall event (HNER) caused severe damage and many fatalities. The daily precipitation during this event (from 1200 UTC on 19 July 2021–1200 UTC on 20 July 2021) was 552.5 mm and the maximum hourly precipitation was 201.9 mm (at 0900 UTC on 20 July 2021). Previous studies have suggested that an evaluation of the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme rainfall events is crucial in disaster prevention and mitigation under the current global climate crisis. We examined the changes in the coverage and intensity of extreme rainfall during the ‘21·7’ HNER event under anthropogenic climate change using a set of convective permitting simulations. Our results showed that the regional-average magnitude of the 48 h accumulated rainfall during the ‘21·7’ HNER was increased by 5.7% (95% confidence interval: 4%–11%), which is in agreement with the Clausius–Clapeyron rate, while the area of extreme rainfall (⩾500 mm) increased by 29.9% (95% confidence interval: 21%–40%) as a result of anthropogenic climate change over the Henan region during the late 20th century. Anthropogenic climate change has led to a warm moist tongue over the target region, which has increased the column-integrated water vapor content and induced an anomalous cyclone–anticyclone pair. Anthropogenic warming has caused stronger southerly and southeasterly winds, leading to stronger convergence in the lower troposphere, stronger updrafts in the mid-troposphere and stronger divergent winds in the upper levels. These effects have all contributed to the increase in rainfall. These results enhance our understanding of the dynamic effects of anthropogenic warming on the ‘21·7’ HNER and provide additional evidence that anthropogenic warming increased the magnitude of the ‘21·7’ HNER in China.

Interdecadal variation of precipitation over Yunnan, China in summer and its possible causes

In recent decades, severe drought conditions have become increasingly frequent in Yunnan, Southwest China. The extreme drought events cause huge losses to agricultural economy, ecological security and human health. To uncover the reasons behind the worsening drought conditions, this study investigates the interdecadal variability (IDV) of summer precipitation in Yunnan during 1961–2019 and its association with the Indo-Pacific Sea surface temperature (SST) configuration based on gauge observation and reanalysis data. The dominant mode of summer precipitation IDV in Yunnan shows a uniform pattern characterizing the alternations of flood and drought. Specifically, a relatively wet period persists from the early 1990s to the early 2000s, followed by a relatively dry period from the early 2000s to the late 2010s. The IDV of precipitation is consistent with the IDV of the column-integrated water vapor flux divergence, where the wind anomalies play a major role in modulating the moisture supply. The main SST forcings of the IDV of precipitation include the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Bay of Bengal (BOB), the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), and the western North Pacific (WNP). The negative SSTAs over the BOB and the WPWP trigger a Gill-Matsuno-type response that enhances the cyclonic curvature over Yunnan. The SSTAs over the WNP show a tripole pattern that weakens the WNP subtropical high and further enhances the cyclonic anomaly over Yunnan. The above SST configuration also favors moisture transport to Yunnan. Numerical experiments verify the key physical processes.

Climatology and decadal changes of Arctic atmospheric rivers based on ERA5 and MERRA-2

We present the Arctic atmospheric river (AR) climatology based on twelve sets of labels derived from ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses for 1980–2019. The ARs were identified and tracked in the 3-hourly reanalysis data with a multifactorial approach based on either atmospheric column-integrated water vapor (IWV) or integrated water vapor transport (IVT) exceeding one of the three climate thresholds (75th, 85th, and 95th percentiles). Time series analysis of the AR event counts from the AR labels showed overall upward trends from the mid-1990s to 2019. The 75th IVT- and IWV-based labels, as well as the 85th IWV-based labels, are likely more sensitive to Arctic surface warming, therefore, detected some broadening of AR-affected areas over time, while the rest of the labels did not. Spatial exploratory analysis of these labels revealed that the AR frequency of occurrence maxima shifted poleward from over-land in 1980–1999 to over the Arctic Ocean and its outlying Seas in 2000–2019. Regions across the Atlantic, the Arctic, to the Pacific Oceans trended higher AR occurrence, surface temperature, and column-integrated moisture. Meanwhile, ARs were increasingly responsible for the rising moisture transport into the Arctic. Even though the increase of Arctic AR occurrence was primarily associated with long-term Arctic surface warming and moistening, the effects of changing atmospheric circulation could stand out locally, such as on the Pacific side over the Chukchi Sea. The changing teleconnection patterns strongly modulated AR activities in time and space, with prominent anomalies in the Arctic-Pacific sector during the latest decade. Besides, the extreme events identified by the 95th-percentile labels displayed the most significant changes and were most influenced by the teleconnection patterns. The twelve Arctic AR labels and the detailed graphics in the atlas can help navigate the uncertainty of detecting and quantifying Arctic ARs and their associated effects in current and future studies.

Asymmetric restart in a stochastic climate model: A theoretical perspective to prevent the abnormal precipitation accumulation caused by global warming

The continuous heating of the Earth’s surface and aerosphere causes global warming. Recent developments predict that at the end of the twenty-first century, with 3 °C on average global warming will yield a regional augmentation in the probability of the abnormally large precipitation accumulation in a single downpour event. We examine this issue using a stochastic climate model and provide a theoretical scheme to the increased possibility of cloudburst in a single rainfall event. We find that implementing a permanent upper cut-off in column integrated water vapour or an asymmetric stochastic resetting can reduce the abnormally high accumulation probability of such rainstorms. We report that an optimum upper limit of column integrated water vapour in the atmosphere ascertain the decrease in the heavy precipitation-accumulation. The presence of such a perpetual upper ceiling in the moisture content is energy exorbitant and can significantly affect the mean downpour. A careful choice of the system parameters ensures the decrease in mean accumulation size within a ten per cent tolerance limit. We introduce an asymmetric stochastic resetting to the amount of column integrated water vapour at its upper threshold to recompense the energy cost. We perceive that an adaptive restart rate is efficient enough to reduce the probability of targeted precipitation accumulation to the desired extent.

Global Changes in Water Vapor 1979–2020

AbstractGlobal‐scale changes in water vapor and responses to surface temperature variability since 1979 are evaluated across a range of satellite and ground‐based observations, a reanalysis (ERA5) and coupled and atmosphere‐only CMIP6 climate model simulations. Global‐mean column integrated water vapor increased by 1%/decade during 1988–2014 in observations and atmosphere‐only simulations. However, coupled simulations overestimate water vapor trends and this is partly explained by past studies showing that internal climate variability suppressed observed warming in this period. Decreases in low‐altitude tropical water vapor in ERA5 and ground‐based observations before around 1993 are considered suspect based on inconsistency with simulations and increased column integrated water vapor in microwave satellite data since 1979. Atmospheric Infra‐red Sounder satellite data does not capture the increased tropospheric water vapor since 2002 shown by other satellite, reanalysis, and model products. However, global water vapor responses to interannual surface temperature variability are consistent across data sets with increases of ∼4%–5% near the surface and 10%–15% at 300 hPa for each 1°C increase in global surface temperature. Global water vapor responses are explained by thermodynamic amplification of upper tropospheric temperature changes and the Clausius Clapeyron temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure that are dominated by the tropical ocean responses. Upper tropospheric moistening is larger in climate model simulations with greater upper tropospheric warming.

Spatio-temporal distribution of tropospheric water vapour over Arabian Sea and Equatorial Indian Ocean in boreal winter of 2018

Balloon-borne experiments carried out onboard ORV Sagar Kanya over the Arabian Sea (AS) and Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) during the period 16 January 2018–14 February 2018 in northern hemisphere winter are used to study the spatio-temporal distribution of tropospheric water vapour. The column-integrated water vapour (IWV) showed an increase of ~10 kg/m2 over the Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) compared to that over Arabian Sea (AS). Amount of water vapour in the free troposphere increases towards south with water vapour enhancement observed up to an altitude of 12 km over the equator. This is mainly due to convective outflows emanating from the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Along 2°S, the IWV showed an east–west (75–65°E) gradient with high values in the east. During the return leg of the ship cruise, when the AS is convectively disturbed with cloud tops extending up to mid-troposphere, the IWV showed an increase of about 10–15 kg/m2 compared to that observed during onward leg under fair weather conditions, particularly due to the accumulation of water vapour in the 2–7 km altitude region. Over the deep ocean the diurnal amplitude of water vapour shows a clear altitude variation with lesser amplitude in the lower troposphere compared to land.

First Airborne Measurements With a G-Band Differential Absorption Radar

Observations and analysis from the first airborne deployment of a G-band atmospheric radar, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory&#x2019;s vapor in-cloud profiling radar (VIPR), are presented with a focus on ocean surface scatterometry and water vapor retrievals using the differential absorption radar (DAR) technique. We assess transceiver cross-calibration stability between the two DAR frequency channels using a combination of ground-based calibration measurements and airborne cloud observations that are validated by independent sensors. By comparing calibrated, unattenuated ocean surface backscatter measurements with existing models, we demonstrate the need for improvements in treating ocean surface scattering at G-band frequencies for future in-flight radar calibration applications. During science-oriented flights off the coast of California, we demonstrate partial column integrated water vapor (IWV) measurement capabilities with 0.3-mm precision in clear sky by performing a descent maneuver over an operational radiosonde (RS) launching site and comparing with the coincident <i>in situ</i> profiles to find a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.5 mm. Furthermore, we present water vapor profiling and IWV measurements in the presence of clouds and precipitation when flying through a frontal weather system in the vicinity of Bodega Bay. By comparing with coincident RS profiles, we find an RMSE for in-cloud humidity profile retrievals of 1.1 <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">${\rm gm}^{-3}$ </tex-math></inline-formula> and precision of 0.6 <inline-formula> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">${\rm gm}^{-3}$ </tex-math></inline-formula> while the IWV retrievals reveal a bias from differential hydrometeor extinction of 5 mm. We provide a critical assessment of cloud-scattering-induced biases in the water vapor retrievals, as well as discuss a potential method for eliminating systematic error from the DAR measurements.

Extreme Water Vapor Transport During the March 2021 Sydney Floods in the Context of Climate Projections

AbstractDuring March 2021, large regions of Eastern Australia experienced prolonged heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The maximum daily mean column integrated water vapor transport (IVT) over Sydney during this event was within the top 0.3% of all days since 1980, and the 10‐day mean IVT was in the top 0.2%. In this study, we have examined the change in frequency of extreme IVT events over Sydney in 16 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). Generalized Extreme Value modeling was used to further analyze the change in frequency of extreme IVT events. We found the probability of long duration high IVT events is projected to increase by 80% at the end of the century, but the future change in IVT is correlated to the rate of global and regional warming in each model.

Spaceborne differential absorption radar water vapor retrieval capabilities in tropical and subtropical boundary layer cloud regimes

Abstract. Differential absorption radar (DAR) near the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line is an emerging measurement technique for humidity profiling inside of clouds and precipitation with high vertical resolution, as well as for measuring integrated water vapor (IWV) in clear-air regions. For radar transmit frequencies on the water line flank away from the highly attenuating line center, the DAR system becomes most sensitive to water vapor in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which is a region of the atmosphere that is poorly resolved in the vertical by existing spaceborne humidity and temperature profiling instruments. In this work, we present a high-fidelity, end-to-end simulation framework for notional spaceborne DAR instruments that feature realistically achievable radar performance metrics and apply this simulator to assess DAR's PBL humidity observation capabilities. Both the assumed instrument parameters and radar retrieval algorithm leverage recent technology and algorithm development for an existing airborne DAR instrument. To showcase the capabilities of DAR for humidity observations in a variety of relevant PBL settings, we implement the instrument simulator in the context of large eddy simulations (LESs) of five different cloud regimes throughout the trade-wind subtropical-to-tropical cloud transition. Three distinct DAR humidity observations are investigated: IWV between the top of the atmosphere and the first detected cloud bin or Earth's surface; in-cloud water vapor profiles with 200 meter vertical resolution; and IWV between the last detected cloud bin and the Earth's surface, which can provide a precise measurement of the sub-cloud humidity. We provide a thorough assessment of the systematic and random errors for all three measurement products for each LES case and analyze the humidity precision scaling with along-track measurement integration. While retrieval performance depends greatly on the specific cloud regime, we find generally that for a radar with cross-track scanning capability, in-cloud profiles with 200 m vertical resolution and 10 %–20 % uncertainty can be retrieved for horizontal integration distances of 100–200 km. Furthermore, column IWV can be retrieved with 10 % uncertainty for 10–20 km of horizontal integration. Finally, we provide some example science applications of the simulated DAR observations, including estimating near-surface relative humidity using the cloud-to-surface column IWV and inferring in-cloud temperature profiles from the DAR water vapor profiles by assuming a fully saturated environment.

Dynamics of widespread extreme precipitation events and the associated large-scale environment using AMeDAS and JRA-55 data

AbstractThis study examines disastrous historical precipitation cases that generate extreme precipitation simultaneously over a wide area in Japan (as in July 2018), defined as widespread extreme precipitation events. A statistically significant large-scale environment conducive for widespread extreme precipitation events over western Japan is investigated based on composite analysis. During a widespread precipitation event, a zonally elongated positive anomaly of the column-integrated water vapor extends from East China to western Japan. In the lower troposphere, a dipole of a geopotential height anomaly exists with positive and negative values at the east and west of the precipitation area, respectively. It is found that the negative geopotential anomaly is enhanced over East China at two days before the event and moves toward the precipitating area mainly due to the PV production term by diabatic heating, in analogy of a diabatic Rossby wave. The temporal evolution of the dynamical forced vertical velocity is well in phase with that the PV production term, inferring the importance of the coupling between the dynamical forced motion and diabatic heating. This result provides a physical understanding of the reason why both the background moisture and the baroclinicity are essential in the composited atmospheric fields and another view to the importance of the feedback parameter between the dynamical motion and diabatic heating.

A simulation-experiment-based assessment of retrievals of above-cloud temperature and water vapor using a hyperspectral infrared sounder

Abstract. Measuring atmospheric conditions above convective storms using spaceborne instruments is challenging. The operational retrieval framework of current hyperspectral infrared sounders adopts a cloud-clearing scheme that is unreliable in overcast conditions. To overcome this issue, previous studies have developed an optimal estimation method that retrieves the temperature and humidity above high thick clouds by assuming a slab of cloud. In this study, we find that variations in the effective radius and density of cloud ice near the tops of convective clouds lead to non-negligible spectral uncertainties in simulated infrared radiance spectra. These uncertainties cannot be fully eliminated by the slab-cloud assumption. To address this problem, a synergistic retrieval method is developed here. This method retrieves temperature, water vapor, and cloud properties simultaneously by incorporating observations from active sensors in synergy with infrared radiance spectra. A simulation experiment is conducted to evaluate the performance of different retrieval strategies using synthetic radiance data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and cloud data from CloudSat/CALIPSO. In this experiment, we simulate infrared radiance spectra from convective storms through a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and a radiative transfer model. The simulation experiment shows that the synergistic method is advantageous, as it shows high retrieval sensitivity to the temperature and ice water content near the cloud top. The synergistic method more than halves the root-mean-square errors in temperature and column integrated water vapor compared to prior knowledge based on the climatology. It can also improve the quantification of the ice water content and effective radius compared to prior knowledge based on retrievals from active sensors. Our results suggest that existing infrared hyperspectral sounders can detect the spatial distributions of temperature and humidity anomalies above convective storms.

Study of Atmospheric Turbidity in a Northern Tropical Region Using Models and Measurements of Global Solar Radiation

Radiative transfer in the Earth’s atmosphere under clear-sky conditions strongly depends on turbidity due to aerosols and hydrometeors. It is therefore important to know its temporal radiative properties for a given site when the objective is to optimize the solar energy that is collected there. Turbidity can be studied via measurements and models of the global solar radiation reaching the ground in cloudless conditions. These models generally depend on two parameters, namely the Angström turbidity coefficient and the Linke factor. This article aims to do a comparative study of five models of global solar radiation, all dependent on the Linke factor, based on real data. The measurements are provided by the Tamanrasset Meteorological Center (Algeria), which has a long series of global solar radiation data recorded between 2005 and 2011. Additional data from AERONET and MODIS onboard the TERRA satellite were also used to perform the comparison between the two estimated parameters and those obtained from AERONET. The study shows that the ESRA models are the most reliable among the five models for estimating the Linke factor with a correlation coefficient R of the data fits of 0.9995, a RMSE of 13.44 W/m2, a MBE of −0.64 W/m2 and a MAPE of 6.44%. The maximum and minimum statistical values were reached, respectively, in June and during the autumn months. The best correlation is also observed in the case of ESRA models between the Linke parameter and the joint optical thickness of aerosols and the total column-integrated water vapor. The Angström turbidity coefficient β, calculated from the Linke factor and MODIS data, has values less than 0.02 at 9% of the cases, and 76% present values ranging between 0.02 and 0.15 and 13% higher than 0.15. These β values are validated by AERONET measurements since a very good correlation (R≈0.87) is observed between the two datasets. The temporal variations of β also show a maximum in June. Satellite observations confirm more aerosols during the summer season, which are mostly related to the African monsoon.

Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Vapor Transport and Precipitation to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Increases.

Filaments of intense vapor transport called atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the majority of poleward vapor transport in the midlatitudes. Despite their importance to the hydrologic cycle, there remain many unanswered questions about changes to ARs in a warming climate. In this study we perform a series of escalating uniform SST increases (+2, +4, and +6K, respectively) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 in an aquaplanet configuration to evaluate the thermodynamic and dynamical response of AR vapor content, transport, and precipitation to warming SSTs. We find that AR column integrated water vapor (IWV) is especially sensitive to SST and increases by 6.3–9.7% per degree warming despite decreasing relative humidity through much of the column. Further analysis provides a more nuanced view of AR IWV changes: Since SST warming is modest compared to that in the midtroposphere, computing fractional changes in IWV with respect to SST results in finding spuriously large increases. Meanwhile, results here show that AR IWV transport increases relatively uniformly with temperature and at consistently lower rates than IWV, as modulated by systematically decreasing low‐level wind speeds. Similarly, changes in AR precipitation are related to a compensatory relationship between enhanced near‐surface moisture and damped vertical motions.

A multimodel evaluation of the water vapor budget in atmospheric rivers.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow regions of strong horizontal water vapor transport that play important roles in the global water cycle, weather, and hydrology. Motivated by challenges in simulating ARs with state-of-the-art global models, this paper diagnoses model errors with a focus on relative contributions of moisture convergence, evaporation, and precipitation to AR column-integrated water vapor (IWV) budget. Using 20-year simulations by 24 global weather/climate models, budget terms are calculated for four AR sectors: postfrontal, frontal, prefrontal, and pre-AR, with biases assessed against two reanalysis products. The results indicate that each sector is unique in terms of the dominant water vapor balance, and that the terms exhibiting the largest intermodel spread are the same terms dominating the water vapor balance in each sector. Overall, simulated bulk AR characteristics (e.g., geometry, frequency, and intensity) are more sensitive to biases in IVT convergence and IWV tendency than to biases in evaporation and precipitation, although evaporation/precipitation biases do affect key AR bulk characteristics in selected sectors. The large intermodel spread (particularly for precipitation) and, in certain cases, discrepancies between the reanalysis references themselves (particularly for precipitation types) highlight the need for observational efforts that target better constraining AR processes in weather/climate models and reanalyses.

Column Integrated Water Vapor and Aerosol Load Characterization with the New ZEN-R52 Radiometer

The study shows the first results of the column-integrated water vapor retrieved by the new ZEN-R52 radiometer. This new radiometer has been specifically designed to monitor aerosols and atmospheric water vapor with a high degree of autonomy and robustness in order to allow the expansion of the observations of these parameters to remote desert areas from ground-based platforms. The ZEN-R52 device shows substantial improvements compared to the previous ZEN-R41 prototype: a smaller field of view, an increased signal-to-noise ratio, better stray light rejection, and an additional channel (940 nm) for precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrieval. PWV is inferred from the ZEN-R52 Zenith Sky Radiance (ZSR) measurements using a lookup table (LUT) methodology. The improvement of the new ZEN-R52 in terms of ZSR was verified by means of a comparison with the ZEN-R41, and with the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Cimel CE318 (CE318-AERONET) at Izaña Observatory, a Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) high mountain station (Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain), over a 10-month period (August 2017 to June 2018). ZEN-R52 aerosol optical depth (AOD) was extracted by means of the ZEN–AOD–LUT method with an uncertainty of ±0.01 ± 0.13*AOD. ZEN-R52 PWV extracted using a new LUT technique was compared with quasi-simultaneous (±30 s) Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer measurements as reference. A good agreement was found between the two instruments (PWV means a relative difference of 9.1% and an uncertainty of ±0.089 cm or ±0.036 + 0.061*PWV for PWV &lt;1 cm). This comparison analysis was extended using two PWV datasets from the same CE318 reference instrument at Izaña Observatory: one obtained from AERONET (CE318-AERONET), and another one using a specific calibration of the 940-nm channel performed in this work at Izaña Atmospheric Research Center Observatory (CE318-IARC), which improves the PWV product.

Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract. We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr−1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr−1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr−1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr−1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

A dynamical–system description of precipitation over the tropics and the midlatitudes

A dynamical–system approach is proposed to describe the relationship between precipitation and a chosen predictor. This is done by constructing a two dimensional phase space spanned by predictor and predictant. This study uses two sounding data sets from the Tropical Western Pacific and Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) over North–East Italy as representatives of the tropics and midlatitudes, in addition to a basin–scale average over the winter–period North Atlantic from global re–analysis data. In contrast to conventional correlation-based approaches, the proposed approach depicts periodic cycles, as well as discharge–recharge cycles as its nonlinear extension. Discharge–recharge cycles for tropical convection are identified by using both the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the column–integrated water vapor (CIW) as predictors, as well as the baroclinicity for the winter–period North–Atlantic rain. On the other hand, the midlatitude rain, as seen over FVG as well as the winter–period North Atlantic, does not constitute a well–defined periodic cycle either with CAPE or CIW as a predictor. The inferred phase–space trajectories are more deterministic at peripheries of dense data areas rather than at a middle in the phase space. Data–dense areas in phase space, where traditional approaches primarily focus, are associated with more prediction uncertainties in our analysis due to more phase-velocity fluctuations.

Comparison of precipitable water vapor data of ERA-Interim and NCEP-NCAR with radiosonde observations (Case study: Shiraz Station)

Water vapor plays an important role in the atmospheric water balance and precipitation formation process in the lower troposphere. In this study, trend of the total precipitable water vapor (TPWV) which is column-integrated water vapor, is analyzed using radiosonde data of synoptic Shiraz station during the period 1990-2017. Besides, the TPWV data from the ERA- Interim of the ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis datasets were retrived and used for comparison. The Mann Kendall (M-K) test, showed no significant trend in TPW data for both Radiosonde and ECMWF data for all months, except for Radiosonde data of August. Generally a non-significant decreasing trend in radiosonde time series of TPWV was observed for most of months. However, both linear regression and M-K tests showed a significant increasing trend in annual TPW of NCEP-NCAR data. The rate of decrease and increase in PW for Radiosonde and NCEP-NCAR data are 0.29 and 0.52 mm per decade, respectively. For all months (except April), there is a positive significant Pearson correlation between Radiosonde TPW series and ERA- Interim at 5% significance level. However, the Pearson correlation coefficients were not significant for NCEP-NCAR. The root mean square error of PWV data and ERA- Interim is generally smaller than NCEP-NCAR. The latter, showed an overestimation comparing to radiosonde. In general, ERA- Interim data has higher accuracy and more agreement with observed Radiosonde data.

Benefit of high resolution COSMO reanalysis: The diurnal cycle of column-integrated water vapor over Germany

Benefit of high resolution COSMO reanalysis: The diurnal cycle of column-integrated water vapor over Germany