Purpose This paper examines the earnings effects of educational mismatch in the New Zealand labour market over a decade. Using longitudinal data from 2013, 2018, and 2023, it applies a fixed-effects model to analyse how overeducation and undereducation affect real hourly wages. The study finds that overeducated workers face persistent wage penalties, while undereducated workers earn premiums over the observed period. It further reveals that graduates suffer larger wage penalties from overeducation than non-graduates. By illustrating wage trajectories over a decade, the research highlights the long-term nature of these earnings disadvantages and underscores the need for policies that better align educational qualifications with occupational demands. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a fixed effects panel regression model using longitudinal data from the 2013, 2018, and 2023 New Zealand Censuses and the Administrative Population Census (APC), accessed via Stats NZ’s Integrated Data Infrastructure. The analysis utilises a balanced panel of 510,983 individuals. Educational mismatch is measured using the realised matches method, classifying workers as overeducated, undereducated, or well-matched based on occupational education benchmarks. The model controls for human capital variables, demographic factors, and occupational characteristics to estimate the impact of mismatch on real hourly log wages, while accounting for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity. Dynamic analysis using transition matrices and trajectory classifications is conducted to examine mobility and stability across mismatch categories over the period. Occupation fixed effect, random effect with the Hausman test, experience sensitivity and Quantile regression are used as robustness checks. Findings The analysis reveals that overeducated workers in New Zealand experience a significant and persistent wage penalty of approximately 5%, while undereducated workers earn a wage premium of 2–4% compared to their well-matched counterparts. This earnings disadvantage is notably more severe for graduates, who face a 6.7% wage penalty for overeducation, compared to 3.2% for non-graduates. Crucially, wage trajectory analysis from 2013 to 2023 confirms that these penalties and premiums remain stable over time, indicating that educational mismatch is a long-term, rather than transitory, issue in the New Zealand labour market. Research limitations/implications The findings have significant implications for policymakers and educators in New Zealand. They underscore the need for enhanced career guidance and robust employer-education partnerships to better align graduate skills with labour market demands. University enrolment and funding should be strategically reviewed to address skill shortages and reduce overeducation. Furthermore, promoting lifelong learning and work-integrated learning can help workers adapt their skills. For individuals, the persistent wage penalty for overeducated graduates highlights a potential risk to the return on investment in higher education, suggesting a need for careful career planning informed by labour market trends. Practical implications The study’s results call for concrete actions. Policymakers should strengthen career guidance services, using real-time labour market data to inform students about in-demand fields and potential mismatch risks. Tertiary institutions must adapt curricula and intake numbers to align with economic needs, prioritizing sectors with skill shortages. Employers can contribute by expanding internship and work-integrated learning programs to ensure a smoother school-to-work transition. For workers, the findings highlight the long-term financial risk of overeducation, emphasizing the importance of strategic upskilling and lifelong learning to maintain alignment between their qualifications and their job roles. Social implications The persistent wage penalties for overeducation carry profound social implications. They can devalue higher education, potentially deterring investment in human capital and undermining social mobility. This mismatch may exacerbate income inequality, as graduates face reduced returns on their significant educational investments. At a societal level, widespread overeducation leads to inefficient use of skills, lowering overall productivity and hindering economic growth. Furthermore, it can fuel worker dissatisfaction and psychological distress, negatively impacting well-being. These effects collectively threaten the social contract that education leads to better life outcomes, demanding urgent policy intervention to realign educational pathways with labour market needs. Originality/value This study provides original value by being the first to analyse the earnings impact of educational mismatch in New Zealand across census waves using a decade of longitudinal data (2013–2023). Its application of a fixed effects model to a large, balanced panel offers robust evidence by controlling for unobserved individual heterogeneity. The study differentiates cross-sectional sorting from within-person wage changes connected to the mismatch level by examining within-individual differences over time. The research uniquely constructs and compares wage trajectories over time, demonstrating the persistent nature of mismatch penalties. Furthermore, it delivers novel insights by separately analysing graduates and non-graduates, revealing that the wage penalty for overeducation is significantly more severe for tertiary-educated individuals, a critical finding for national policy.

Sedentary behavior is increasingly recognized as an independent risk factor for adverse physical and mental health outcomes. University students are particularly vulnerable due to prolonged sitting associated with academic demands. However, data on SB among university students in Yemen remain limited. This study aimed to assess the prevalence, patterns, and determinants of sedentary behavior among Yemeni university students. A multicenter cross-sectional study was conducted among 8,312 university students aged 18-30 years from 28 public and private universities across 10 Yemeni cities. Participants were recruited using a non-probability convenience sampling approach via online platforms, which may introduce selection bias. Data were collected using a web-based, self-administered questionnaire including sociodemographic characteristics and the validated Arabic version of the Sedentary Behavior Questionnaire (SBQ). Average daily sedentary time was calculated, and prolonged sedentary behavior was defined as ≥ 7h/day. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with prolonged sedentary behavior. The mean daily sedentary time was 326.3 ± 211.4min, and 28.6% of students reported prolonged sedentary behavior. Watching television was the most common sedentary activity, followed by academic work and phone use. Sedentary time was higher among females and younger students in descriptive analyses. In multivariable analysis, enrollment in private universities (OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.68-2.08), studying in scientific/engineering/technical (OR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.30-1.68) or administrative/economic disciplines (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.12-1.53), smoking (OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.12-1.47), and lack of access to university physical activity facilities (OR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.16-1.47) were independently associated with higher odds of prolonged sedentary behavior. Older age was associated with lower odds (21-24 years: OR = 0.82; ≥25 years: OR = 0.64). Sedentary behavior is common among Yemeni university students, with certain groups at higher risk. These findings suggest that university-based strategies, such as improving access to physical activity facilities and promoting active lifestyles, may help reduce sedentary time and support student health.

ABSTRACT Despite growing efforts to promote diversity in higher education, enrollment disparities among underrepresented groups persist, driven by financial, informational, and socio-cultural barriers. This study examines the effectiveness of targeted marketing strategies – through contextually tailored messaging and community-based outreach – in mitigating these constraints. Drawing on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), complemented by Social Cognitive Theory (SCT), the study investigates how psychological and structural drivers shape enrollment intentions, with particular emphasis on the mediating roles of communication relevance and social validation. Using a mixed-methods design, survey data from 313 high school students across five Egyptian governorates were analyzed using structural equation modeling, complemented by semi-structured interviews with 20 participants. Findings show that marketing strategies influence enrollment intentions only indirectly through message relevance and peer validation, whereas structural barriers have a strong direct effect alongside an indirect effect via peer and community engagement. Qualitative insights further highlight the importance of culturally responsive messaging and community-based endorsement in navigating systemic constraints. The study extends TPB by modeling how institutional communication influences intention through perceived relevance and social validation pathways in collectivist contexts, offering actionable guidance for equity-driven higher education outreach and policy.

Blood donation is a life-saving practice, yet many developing countries face chronic shortages due to a lack of regular donors. This study assessed knowledge and practice of voluntary blood donation among university students, examined associations with socio-demographic factors and academic field, and identified motivators and barriers. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among third- and fourth-year students in five medical and non-medical colleges at the University of Kerbala using one-stage cluster sampling. A structured Arabic questionnaire assessed demographics, knowledge (19 items), donation history, attitudes, and information sources. Analyses included chi-square tests, univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Of 730 students, 19.7% had good knowledge. Medical students scored higher than non-medical students (29.3% vs. 10.0%, p < 0.001), and females outperformed males (p = 0.04). Only 11.6% had ever donated, with substantially higher rates in males (22% vs. 4%, p < 0.001). Although non-medical students appeared more likely to donate in crude analysis (15.7% vs. 7.9%), this association disappeared after adjustment, indicating gender explained the difference. In multivariable models, medical college enrollment and blood group A independently predicted higher knowledge, while older age, male gender, higher knowledge, and smoking independently predicted donation. Non-medical students more often viewed donation as a humanitarian and religious duty, while medical students more frequently cited academic study as an information source. Altruism was the leading motivator (57.6%), and the most common barrier was never being asked to donate (50.7%). Knowledge and donation rates were modest. Targeted educational initiatives and increased on-campus opportunities may help translate high willingness into actual donation.

ABSTRACT While efforts to increase college access and completion have historically focused on recent high school graduates, state policymakers have begun to realize that, in order to expand their competitive workforce, they also need to increase postsecondary attainment among adults. In this study, we use data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System and a differences-in-differences approach to estimate the impact of adult-targeted state grant aid on enrollment and completion outcomes across 10 different states. We find that effects vary across states, with positive effects on enrollment and completion primarily concentrated at eligible two-year institutions. We also find some statistically significant negative effects which suggest that the grant aid programs may have induced individuals to trade-off between institution types, or competing policies may have drawn away adults who otherwise would have enrolled into the workforce. Our results have implications for future policy efforts aimed at increasing the postsecondary attainment of adults.

Protective behavioral strategies (PBS) are designed to minimize negative alcohol-related consequences. They include limiting/stopping, manner-of-drinking (e.g. avoiding shots or drinking games) and serious harm reduction strategies. This secondary analysis measured day-level, within-person associations between PBS and alcohol-related consequences (including alcohol-induced blackout) among young adults enrolled and not enrolled in college. Observational study using ambulatory assessments each morning for 30 days. United States. Young adults (n = 153, 35% male, 58% White, mean age = 22 y) with a history of alcohol-induced blackout. Fifty-nine participants (39%) were enrolled in college. Participants completed an orientation interview, baseline self-report measures and 30 days of prospective morning reports. Multilevel logistic regression was used to analyze data. Within persons, participants had lower odds of experiencing any same-day alcohol-related consequence [odds ratio (OR) = 0.36; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.25-0.53], including blackout (OR = 0.24; 95% CI = 0.14-0.42) on days they used manner-of-drinking strategies compared with days they did not. Conversely, experiencing an alcohol-related consequence was not associated with use of manner-of-drinking (OR = 1.06; 95% CI = 0.76-1.48) or limiting/stopping (OR = 1.06; 95% CI = 0.76-1.49) strategies on the next drinking day. College enrollment did not moderate any of the associations. Manner-of-drinking strategies appear to reduce the odds of alcohol-related harm at the event level among young adults in the United States, whether or not they are enrolled in college. We speculate that limiting strategies (e.g. counting drinks) appear less effective because they are more difficult to implement in real-life drinking contexts.

Male students are more likely than female students to delay college entry. In male culture that widely expects stoicism, the delay decision among male students and its risks often go unnoticed. This study investigated the link between college delay—a “silent input” in such culture—and male student persistence through the third year of study. Drawing from the 2012/17 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal study (BPS:12/17), the authors analyzed a sample of 4,440 male students at four-year higher education institutions (HEIs). Using descriptive and inferential statistics (propensity score matching [PSM] and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation [QMLE]), the authors found a high dropout rate among male delayers and a negative relationship between college delay and persistence. High school grade point average (GPA), household income, degree expectations, and academic integration quality positively predicted persistence, whereas attending an open admission institution had the opposite influence. These findings highlight the critical need to understand the academic challenges faced by male students and to identify practice and research directions for enhancing their college enrollment and success.

HighlightsPublic health relevance—How does this work relate to a public health issue?Climate change is an escalating public health challenge with implications for physical and mental wellbeing, as well as population resilience.This study addresses climate change awareness and anxiety among university students in Jordan, an important population for future public health action.Public health significance—Why is this work of significance to public health?The findings reveal high general awareness of climate change but limited awareness of Jordan’s national climate change policy.The study also identifies measurable differences in climate change anxiety and perceptual awareness across population sub-groups.Public health implications—What are the key implications or messages for practitioners, policy makers and/or researchers in public health?Climate-health communication and education should be strengthened within universities and youth-focused public health programs.Public health policy and research should address both climate literacy and the psychosocial burden of climate change in vulnerable young populations.Background: Jordan is increasingly recognized as a climate-vulnerable setting in the region, yet evidence on the psychosocial dimensions of climate change among young adults remains limited. Led by the Jordan Center for Disease Control, this study assessed climate change perceptual awareness and climate-related anxiety among university students and explored perceptions of climate impacts at global and national levels. Methods: In a cross-sectional survey conducted between April and May 2025, 1305 students were recruited from universities across Jordan using a questionnaire incorporating the 15-item Climate Change Perceptual Awareness Scale and the 13-item Climate Change Anxiety Scale. Results: Awareness of climate change and global warming was high (87% and 96%, respectively), yet only 23% were familiar with Jordan’s National Climate Change Policy 2022–2050. In regression analyses, higher climate anxiety was associated with female sex, married status, larger household size, diagnosed mental health conditions, and central-region university enrolment. Higher perceptual awareness was associated with female sex, older age, and the recognition of multidimensional climate impacts. Students identified heatwaves, drought, and forest fires as principal environmental threats, and respiratory and heat-related illnesses as foremost health concerns. Conclusions: Our findings position climate change as not only an environmental concern, but also as an educational, psychological, and public health priority. To support effective adaptation and resilience, climate awareness must be translated into informed engagement and action. Integrating climate and climate-health education into university curricula, improving youth-responsive communication of national climate strategies, and creating formal pathways for youth participation in climate governance are essential investments in Jordan’s climate resilience, health security, and long-term sustainable development.

ABSTRACT This study investigates the decision-making process of Indigenous Australian students in pursuing higher education, addressing a gap in understanding their educational choices. It identifies the key factors influencing university enrolment decisions and how these shape students’ educational pathways. Using a narrative-inquiry approach, the study explored the lived experiences of Indigenous students from two Western Australian universities. Through written autobiographies, yarning sessions and one-on-one interviews, participants shared rich, nuanced insights into their journeys to higher education. Findings reveal the pivotal role of ‘sparks’ in normalising higher education as a viable option. Students relied minimally on formal information search, depending heavily on trusted reference groups and institutional choice was guided by a set of key attributes. This study presents an adapted consumer decision-making framework grounded in Indigenous worldviews and highlights the need for tailored, culturally responsive marketing strategies. By centring Indigenous voices and adopting a strength-based approach, this research advances theoretical understanding and offers practical solutions to increase Indigenous student access, participation and equity in higher education.

Young adults in the United States commonly report high-intensity drinking (8+ drinks for females; 10+ drinks for males) and alcohol-induced memory loss ("blackouts"). Since few young adults receive formal help for alcohol use, research is needed to better understand which remotely delivered interventions work and for whom. This study tested goal setting, sex assigned at birth, and college enrollment as moderators of outcomes for one efficacious digital alcohol intervention (the "Drinking Dashboard"). Young adults (ages 18-30 years, 58% female, 51% college students) with a history of blackout were randomized to the Drinking Dashboard (n = 74) or screen time control (n = 82). Assessments occurred at baseline, 1 month, and 3 months, as well as daily between baseline and 1-month follow-up. Multilevel generalized linear modeling tested treatment effects on high-intensity drinking and alcohol-induced blackout within moderator subgroups. Two in three participants (67%) set a goal to reduce their alcohol use or related problems in the next 30 days. Relative to control participants who set an alcohol-related change goal, intervention participants who set an alcohol goal reported greater reductions in high-intensity drinking (incident rate ratio = 0.58, 95% CI [0.35, 0.96], p = .034) but not alcohol-induced blackout (incident rate ratio = 0.74, 95% CI [0.37, 1.46], p = .384). Group × Time interactions were not significant for any other subgroup. The Drinking Dashboard reduces high-intensity drinking among young adults who set a goal to reduce their alcohol use or problems. We speculate that motivation (as indicated in this case by goal setting) may be more important than static variables like sex or college enrollment in predicting response to digital health interventions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).

Health anxiety is a common yet underrecognized concern among medical students, who are routinely exposed to illness-related content and academic pressure. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of clinically significant health anxiety among Saudi medical students and identify its predictors. Secondary objectives were to examine its association with quality of life and explore disease-related fears. A descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted across multiple Saudi universities between November 2024 and April 2025. Participants were recruited via convenience sampling, and data were collected using a structured online questionnaire. The instrument included sociodemographic items, the Short Health Anxiety Inventory (SHAI), a self-perception of illness question, and the SF-12 to assess quality of life. Descriptive statistics, Chi-square tests, Mann-Whitney U tests, Pearson correlation, and logistic regression analysis were used to analyze the data. A total of 650 students completed the survey. Clinically significant health anxiety was reported in 30% of participants. Health anxiety prevalence was higher among females compared to males (36.3% vs. 25.8%), as well as among students in their second academic year, rural residents, private university students, and those with personal or family psychiatric history. Logistic regression identified several significant predictors: female students demonstrated 2.3-fold higher odds of health anxiety compared to males (AOR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.51-3.62), rural residence, private university enrollment (AOR = 6.14, 95% CI: 3.66-10.5), and psychiatric history. A significant negative correlation was found between health anxiety and quality of life (r = -0.25, p < 0.001). Students with health anxiety reported notably lower quality of life scores. Additionally, a network analysis of disease-related fears revealed cancer as the most frequently reported concern, followed by cardiovascular and endocrine conditions. These fears clustered into somatic, chronic, and neuropsychiatric domains. Clinically significant health anxiety affects nearly one-third of Saudi medical students and is associated with key sociodemographic and academic risk factors, as well as poorer quality of life. These findings underscore the need for mental health support systems and preventive strategies within medical education environments to address and manage health-related anxieties early.

A nutritionally balanced, age-appropriate diet is crucial for child development. The randomized Special Turku Coronary Risk Factor Intervention Project (STRIP) was a 20-year dietary intervention starting at 7 months of age. It aimed at improving fat quality and promoting healthy foods to prevent cardiovascular diseases. We examined whether the intervention was associated with university enrollment and difficulties in school-related tasks in a post hoc setting. Participants (n = 1062) were recruited at the age of 5 months between December 1, 1989, and May 30, 1992, from child health clinics in Turku, Finland, and were randomly assigned to either the intervention (n = 541) or control group (n = 521) at the age of 7 months. Children in the intervention group received personalized dietary counseling through age 20, without a fixed diet. We used linear probability models estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) to investigate whether being in the intervention group was associated with university enrollment by age 26, and OLS regressions to examine its association with difficulties in school-related tasks at age 10. The study is reported in accordance with the CONSORT guidelines. In total, 639 participants provided university enrollment data. Among males from low-education families, being in the intervention group was associated with a 32 percentage point higher likelihood of enrollment (b = 0.324, p = 0.004, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.103, 0.546). Among all males the association was 11 percentage points (b = 0.107, p = 0.07, 95% CI: -0.007, 0.220), and among females -3 percentage points (b = -0.033, p = 0.53, 95% CI: -0.137, 0.071). The results also suggested that diet, rather than cardiovascular health, may serve as a mediator. Long-term dietary counseling is associated with increased educational attainment among males from low-education families. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (#NCT00223600).

The government ensures educational quality in universities through a quality assurance (QA) system implemented via accreditation, which evaluates both study programs and institutions. A key concern in accreditation is the decline in new student enrollment, making accurate predictions of enrollment numbers essential for quality assessment. This study proposes a linear regression (LR) model to forecast future university student enrollments based on enrollment figures from the previous year as input feature. Using a dataset from one of Indonesia’s leading university spanning 2013 to 2023, the experimental results demonstrate that the LR model outperforms other regression techniques, including multi-layer perceptron (MLP), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF). The LR model achieves R² values between 0.87 and 0.95, reflecting a strong linear relationship between current and future student numbers. It also delivers high accuracy, with root mean square error (RMSE) values ranging from 11.72 to 41.21 per year. The trained LR model has been integrated into a web-based system, offering data visualization and enrollment predictions to support university management in monitoring quality, addressing enrollment challenges, and facilitating informed decision-making.

The study examines how Slovenian students perceive the application of AI tools in Language for Specific Purposes (LSP) courses. It focuses on determining whether the respondents' age, gender, and university of enrolment influence their use of AI tools in their LSP course, and whether the respondents' age, gender, and university enrolment impact their perception of their LSP teachers' influence on learning using AI tools. Conducted across four major Slovenian universities, the research involved 239 students and utilised an anonymous online survey. Findings reveal that students frequently utilize AI tools such as ChatGPT, Grammarly, and AI Writer to prepare assignments, enhance writing quality, and acquire new information. However, concerns about over-reliance, reduced critical thinking, and data accuracy continue. Gender differences were observed, with male students using AI tools more often for peer communication and assessment preparation. Teachers' attitudes varied across institutions, with some encouraging the use of AI for learning and others warning about potential ethical risks. The study highlights the need for structured guidelines on AI integration in language learning curricula, enhanced teacher training, and the promotion of balanced AI use alongside developing critical thinking skills. It also stresses the importance of fostering ethical awareness among students.

This study analyzed the enrollment behavior at the postgraduate level in Mexico, identifying trends by educational modality and type of funding. A quantitative approach was employed, with a descriptive design and scope, as well as group difference analysis. Comparisons were made of the growth in face-to-face and distance postgraduate enrollment in public and private universities over the past seven years. The results showed that distance postgraduate enrollment increased from 120,445 students in the 2018–2019 academic year to 236,753 students in the 2024–2025 academic year, representing an increase of 96.57%. In contrast, face-to-face postgraduate enrollment experienced only a minimal increase, from 240,822 to 241,629 students, equivalent to 0.34%. Regarding the growth of private postgraduate education, this was mainly due to the expansion of distance enrollment, which rose from 28% in the 2018–2019 academic year to 44% in the 2024–2025 academic year. Conversely, the decline in public postgraduate education was attributable to a decrease in face-to-face enrollment, which fell from 33% to 28%. In conclusion, public universities in Mexico must reinvent themselves by designing dynamic, flexible, and innovative educational models that facilitate the development of distance education programs

Abstract The uneven distribution of universities across regions has been argued to create educational inequalities based on place of residence. While studies have shown positive associations between college proximity, measured by distance to nearest college or its presence, and enrolment among local residents, regional availability has often been measured insufficiently, and longitudinal evidence on the relationship is limited. Using multiple social survey datasets combined with population census data from Japan, a country that has experienced significant policy shifts regarding university locations, we examine how longitudinal changes in regional university availability in an individual’s residential and neighbouring prefectures are associated with their likelihood of university enrolment and how these associations differ by parental class and education. Our results show that increased university availability in both residential and neighbouring prefectures is positively associated with enrolment. While the strength of the association does not differ significantly by parental class, individuals with tertiary-educated parents are more responsive to increased availability. These findings suggest that increased university availability in underserved areas could reduce spatial inequality in enrolment, though may have a limited role in reducing, or may even be positively associated with, inequality based on social origin.

This paper studies the impact of gender specific economic policies on women’s access to education in Central Asia. To support girls and women in schools and universities, in the past few years countries and international agencies have rolled out programs such as scholarships, grants, and community initiatives. These policies have contributed to increasing female enrollment in universities and facilitating access for those who may have been marginalised. Some of the research in journals like ERIC and Women’s Studies International Forum shows that more girls can stay in schools when families are financially supported or schools provide safe, welcoming areas. There are still plenty of obstacles though. Gender discrimination, cultural values, and poor enforcement of policies are among obstacles limiting women’s education. Efforts aimed at improving girls education are effective, but studies from such sources as ERIC and Women’s Studies International Forum indicate that these policies should be supplemented with overall actions that do more to promote gender equality, relieve poverty and enhance education systems. In general, gendered economic policies matter, but the transformation of both financial and social relations is required to bring about enduring change.

ABSTRACT We document that 11 percent of recent U.S. high school graduates did not apply for federal student aid due to difficulty in applying, mistaken beliefs, or lack of awareness. Not applying due to such application frictions negatively predicts college enrollment after controlling for other attributes. We represent application frictions as heterogeneous filing costs in a general equilibrium life cycle model of college enrollment. We find that eliminating these frictions generates modest gains on average because less than half of those affected would ultimately utilize aid. However, welfare gains are large for the affected few with high skill and poor parents.

This study develops a system dynamics model to support enrollment forecasting and policy optimization for a State University in Bulacan. State universities and colleges increasingly face fluctuating demand, resource constraints, and policy shifts, yet decisions on admission quotas and capacity are often reactive and based on fragmented analyses. Using five years of historical data on applicants, qualifiers, new enrollees, program-level enrollment, and student retention, dropout, and graduation, the study constructs causal loop and stock-and-flow diagrams that capture key feedbacks between demand, institutional capacity, and student success. The model will be calibrated and validated against historical trends, then used as a “flight simulator” to test alternative admission and capacity policies, such as changes in grade cutoffs, expansion of high-demand programs, or improvements in retention. Scenario results will provide multi-year enrollment projections by college and reveal leverage points where targeted interventions can stabilize growth, prevent capacity overload, and align enrollment with strategic objectives and budget constraints. By integrating forecasting and policy analysis in a single dynamic framework, the study aims to offer state universities a practical decision-support tool for evidence-based enrollment management. More broadly, the framework can be adapted by other regional higher education institutions confronting similar uncertainties in student demand and capacity elsewhere.

Using four cohorts of first-time 9th -grade students in Missouri public high schools, we investigate how degree attainment trajectories diverge by race/ethnic-by-gender groups, pre-college academic readiness, and college selectivity. We find large racial/ethnic academic readiness gaps. Overall college enrollment rates are higher for Black students with average readiness and below, but this advantage disappears for degree completion. Hispanic-White gaps emerge earlier with high school graduation and college enrollment. Given academic readiness, Black students are much less likely to choose community college for their initial college enrollment favoring competitive four-year colleges. Among community college enrollees, Black students are less likely to complete any degree even among academically strong students, but they are equally likely to attain a bachelor’s degree. After controlling for college readiness and FRL, overall bachelor’s degree attainment for Black and Hispanic females are similar to, or higher than White females. Importantly, well-prepared Black and Hispanic male students have much lower degree completion rates than other well-prepared students, and their gaps in bachelor’s degree completion are particularly pronounced in competitive and very competitive institutions. We discuss policy implications.