Reasonable control of the subway tunnel thermal environment is the main objective of the ventilation system design, which is critical to the effectiveness of the train-mounted condenser. In this study, a numerical model utilizing the dynamic mesh technique is developed to investigate the subway tunnel thermal environmental characteristics in the cold climate zone of China. Full-scale field measurements are implemented to verify the model’s accuracy. According to the simulation results, the single Piston wind shaft (PWS) (outlet end) is the optimal ventilation system in the cold climate zone of China. The effects of tunnel wall temperature, passenger flow, and regeneration braking system (RBS) efficiency on the subway tunnel thermal environment are thoroughly analyzed, which shows that the tunnel wall temperature has the greatest effect on the air temperature rise of the subway interval tunnel, the passenger flow has the greatest effect on the air temperature rise of the subway station tunnel. In contrast, the RBS efficiency has the least effect on the maximum condenser inlet temperature. On this basis, the predictive model for the maximum and average condenser inlet temperature is proposed. The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis for temperature control in subway tunnels in the cold climate zone of China and contribute to the safe and energy-efficient operation of subway environmental control systems.