Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of Arabica coffee, faces increasing challenges from climate changes. To maintain the sustainability of this commodity, innovative management techniques will be essential. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate projections, considering two CMIP6 emission scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5) on the phenology and yield of Arabica coffee in 36 representative locations across Brazil for the periods 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. Observed meteorological data from the BR-DWGD (Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data) and projected data from CLIMBra (Climate Change Dataset for Brazil) were employed. An agrometeorological model, calibrated for Brazilian conditions, estimated yield and phenology. Results indicate significant impacts on coffee cultivation areas, mainly due to rising temperatures and increased water deficits. Projections also suggest changes in coffee phenology, with anthesis advancing in colder regions and delaying in warmer areas, while maturation timing occurring earlier in all climates. Yield increases from CO₂ fertilization were more pronounced in category C climates (Cfa, Cfb, Cwa, and Cwb), particularly in Cwb climates, reaching 2.9 bags ha−1 (3.7 bags ha−1 with irrigation) under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and 2.5 bags ha−1 (3.5 bags ha−1 with irrigation) under SSP5–8.5. However, higher temperatures and water deficits could cause severe yield losses, especially in Aw climates and under high-emission scenarios, where losses may reach 100 %. Irrigation will play an important role in mitigating yield losses, especially in northern regions such as northern Minas Gerais and Bahia, where yields could exceed 30 bags ha−1. While southern Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and northern Paraná are projected to have the highest yields, these regions also face greater uncertainty and variability. This study underscores the need for adaptive agricultural practices, the development of resilient coffee cultivars, and supportive research policies to ensure the sustainability of coffee farming in the face of climate change.
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