Coastal Warming Research Articles

First record of Mytilisepta virgata (Bivalvia: Mytilidae) in Russian waters

Mytilisepta virgata was first collected as empty shells attached to plastic debris in south-western part of Peter the Great Bay (Sea of Japan), near Russian-Korean border. This species may be considered as a potentially non-indigenous species in Russian waters due to coastal warming, influence of warm-water currents and its presence in North Korean waters. A description, illustrations, data on distribution and ecology and taxonomic comments are provided.

Investigating Indian oil sardine aggregation events in coastal waters of the southeastern Arabian sea.

The southwest coast of India experiences frequent Indian oil sardine (IOS) nearshore aggregation events, especially in the coastal waters off Kerala. These ephemeral dense IOS aggregation events are known as "Sardine Run". To investigate the reason and provide a scientific basis for these sporadic events, satellite/model-derived physical, meteorological, and biological parameters were analysed. Sea Surface Temperature during a majority of events was in the range of 26-29°C, agreeing with the reported temperature conditions for IOS in the Arabian Sea. Additionally, a marginal lowering of SST as an effect of precipitation before most of the events might have attracted IOS towards the near-coastal waters in addition to the phytoplankton diet availability, resulting in the aggregation event. However, different scenarios also depicted coastal warming and probable hypoxic conditions in degrading IOS habitat and resulting in beach aggregation events. During most of the IOS aggregation events, the wind and surface current direction was alongshore/coastward, which complemented the propagation of live IOS shoals towards the beach.

The 2023 extreme coastal El Niño: Atmospheric and air-sea coupling mechanisms.

In the boreal spring of 2023, an extreme coastal El Niño struck the coastal regions of Peru and Ecuador, causing devastating rainfalls, flooding, and record dengue outbreaks. Observations and ocean model experiments reveal that northerly alongshore winds and westerly wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, initially associated with a record-strong Madden-Julian Oscillation and cyclonic disturbance off Peru in March, drove the coastal warming through suppressed coastal upwelling and downwelling Kelvin waves. Atmospheric model simulations indicate that the coastal warming in turn favors the observed wind anomalies over the far eastern tropical Pacific by triggering atmospheric deep convection. This implies a positive feedback between the coastal warming and the winds, which further amplifies the coastal warming. In May, the seasonal background cooling precludes deep convection and the coastal Bjerknes feedback, leading to the weakening of the coastal El Niño. This coastal El Niño is rare but predictable at 1 month lead, which is useful to protect lives and properties.

Biogeochemistry of greenhouse gases in coastal upwelling systems: Processes and sensitivity to global change

Major coastal upwelling systems are among the most productive marine ecosystems in the world. They contribute disproportionately to the cycling of carbon and nutrients in the ocean and influence marine biogeochemistry beyond their productive regions. Characterized by intense microbial respiration (both aerobic and anaerobic), major coastal upwelling systems are also hotspots for the production and outgassing of potent greenhouse gases (GHG) such as CO2, N2O, and CH4. Quantifying and understanding these roles in the context of a changing climate is therefore a subject of great interest. Here we provide a short synthesis of the current knowledge of the contributions of major coastal upwelling systems to the cycling of GHG. Despite variations within and among different systems, low-latitude coastal upwelling systems typically act as a net carbon source to the atmosphere, while those at higher latitudes function as weak sinks or remain neutral regarding atmospheric CO2. These systems also significantly contribute to oceanic N2O and CH4 emissions, although the extent of their contribution to the latter remains poorly constrained. We also overview recent and future changes to upwelling systems in the context of a warmer climate and discuss uncertainties and implications for GHG production. Although rapid coastal warming is anticipated in all major coastal upwelling systems, the future changes in upwelling-favorable winds and their implications within the context of increased stratification are uncertain. Finally, we examine the major challenges that impede our ability to accurately predict how major coastal upwelling systems will respond to future climate change, and present recommendations for future research to better capture ongoing changes and disentangle natural and forced variability.

Assessing impacts of coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) farming: a case study in the Hinase area, Okayama Prefecture, and Shizugawa Bay, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan

Abstract. Coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation are progressing primarily due to the increase in anthropogenic CO2. Coastal acidification has been reported to have effects that are anticipated to become more severe as acidification progresses, including inhibiting the formation of shells of calcifying organisms such as shellfish, which include Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas), one of the most important aquaculture resources in Japan. Moreover, there is concern regarding the combined impacts of coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oysters. However, spatiotemporal variations in acidification and deoxygenation indicators such as pH, the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), and dissolved oxygen have not been observed and projected in oceanic Pacific oyster farms in Japan. To assess the present impacts and project future impacts of coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oysters, we performed continuous in situ monitoring, numerical modeling, and microscopic examination of Pacific oyster larvae in the Hinase area of Okayama Prefecture and Shizugawa Bay in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, both of which are famous for their Pacific oyster farms. Our monitoring results first found Ωarag values lower than the critical level of acidification for Pacific oyster larvae in Hinase, although no impact of acidification on larvae was identified by microscopic examination. Our modeling results suggest that Pacific oyster larvae are anticipated to be affected more seriously by the combined impacts of coastal warming and acidification, with lower pH and Ωarag values and a prolonged spawning period, which may shorten the oyster shipping period and lower the quality of oysters.

The 2021 Atlantic Niño and Benguela Niño Events: external forcings and air–sea interactions

AbstractThis paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the extreme Atlantic and Benguela Niño events that occurred during the boreal spring–summer of 2021. We conducted sensitivity experiments with a regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model of the tropical Atlantic to investigate the phenology of these interannual events, unravel their triggering mechanisms, and quantify the contributions of local and remote processes. The results revealed that both the 2021 Atlantic and Benguela Niños were triggered by anomalous atmospheric fluxes at the model southern boundary (32° S), leading to a significant and persistent weakening of the South Atlantic Anticyclone. The associated poleward anomalous coastal wind off Africa reduced coastal upwelling and evaporation south of 15° S, initiating the Benguela Niño. Then, the relaxation of the equatorial trade winds forced a downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave, which warmed the eastern equatorial region, marking the onset of the Atlantic Niño. The equatorial event reached full maturity in July 2021 through ENSO-like air-sea interactions in the equatorial basin, enhanced by the atmospheric connection associated with low-level winds converging toward the distant coastal warming. While air–sea interactions in the tropical Atlantic acted as a negative feedback for the coastal warming, the ocean connection with the equatorial variability through the propagation of equatorially-forced downwelling coastal waves intensified the coastal warming, peaking end of May 2021. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics of Atlantic and Benguela Niños, emphasizing the interconnectedness between these two systems. This has important implications for improving Earth system models which currently struggle to simulate these extreme events.

Coastal warming heightens direct impacts of seawater temperature on nutrients near aquaculture farms in Korea

The potential roles of temperature and phytoplankton in nutrient cycling throughout the water column were investigated nearby aquaculture farms. Using the convergent cross mapping (CCM), we examined the relative strength of phytoplankton and temperature effects on nutrients. High δ15N values of particulate organic matter in the inner bay were detected compared to those in the outer bay. δ15N values >5 ‰ throughout the bay indicate that nitrogen influxes from the aquaculture farms are the critical nitrogen source in the study region. Our CCM models revealed that temperature positively and strongly affected the potential regeneration of nutrients, associated with PO43− while phytoplankton utilized nutrients as soon as available. The temperature–driven nutrient regeneration was higher in the bottom layer than that in the surface layer, indicating that temperature was a more important controlling factor in nutrient fluxes from the surface sediments.

Evidences of localized coastal warming near major urban centres along the Indian coastline: past and future trends.

Large-scale urbanization near the coasts is reported to directly impact physical and biogeochemical characteristics of near shore waters, through hydro-meteorological forcing, developing abnormalities such as coastal warming. This study attempts to understand the impact-magnitude of urban expansion on coastal sea surface temperature (SST) rise in the vicinity of six major cities along the Indian coastline. Different parameters such as air temperature (AT), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), precipitation (P), land surface temperature (LST) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) representing the climate over the cities were analysed and AT was found to have highest correlation with increasing coastal SST values, specifically, along the western coast (R2 > 0.93). Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) models were employed to analyse past (1980-2019) and forecast future (2020-2029) SST trends off all urban coasts. ANN provided comparatively better prediction accuracy with RMSE values ranging from 0.40 to 0.76K compared to the seasonal ARIMA model (RMSE: 0.60-1K). Predictionaccuracy further improved by coupling ANN with discrete wavelet transformation (DWT) which could reduce the data noise (RMSE: 0.37-0.63K). The entire study period (1980-2029) revealed significant and consistent increase in SST values (0.5-1K) along the western coastal cities which varied considerably along the east coast (from north to south), indicating the influence of tropical cyclones combined with increased river influx. Such unnatural interferences in the dynamic land-atmosphere-ocean circulation not only render the coastal ecosystems vulnerable to degradation but also potentially develop a feedback effect which impacts the general climatology of the region.

Coastal warming under climate change: Global, faster and heterogeneous

The assessment of expected changes in coastal sea surface temperature (SST) on a global scale is becoming increasingly important due to the growing pressure on coastal ecosystems caused by climate change. To achieve this objective, 17 Global Climate Models from CMIP6 were used, with data from historical and hist-1950 experiments spanning 1982–2050. This analysis highlights significant warming of coastal areas worldwide, with higher and more variable rates of warming than observed in previous decades. All basins are projected to experience an increase in coastal SST near 1 °C by mid-century, with some regions exhibiting nearshore SST anomalies exceeding 2 °C for the period 2031–2050 relative to 1995–2014. Regarding the Eastern Upwelling Boundary Systems, only the Canary upwelling system and the southern part of the Humboldt upwelling system manage to show lower-than-average SST warming rates, maintaining, to a certain extent, their ability to buffer global warming.

Warming and hypoxia threaten a valuable scallop fishery: A warning for commercial bivalve ventures in climate change hotspots.

Marine molluscs constitute the second largest marine fishery and are often caught in coastal and estuarine habitats. Temperature is increasing in these habitats at a rate greater than predicted, especially in warming "hotspots". This warming is accompanied by hypoxia in a duo of stressors that threatens coastal mollusc fisheries and aquaculture. Collapses of the northern bay scallop (Argopecten irradians irradians) fisheries on the Atlantic coast of the USA are likely to be driven by rapid rates of coastal warming and may provide an ominous glimpse into the prospects of other coastal mollusc fisheries in climate warming hotspots.

The ENSO-induced South Pacific Meridional Mode

Previous studies have investigated the role of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), a climate mode of the mid-latitudes in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, in favoring the development of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However little is known on how ENSO can influence the development of the PMM. Here we investigate the relationship between ENSO and the South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) focusing on strong SPMM events that follows strong El Niño events. This type of events represents more than 60% of such events in the observational record and the historical simulations of the CESM Large ensemble (CESM-LE). It is first shown that such a relationship is rather stationary in both observations and the CESM-LE. Our analyses further reveal that strong SPMM events are associated with a coastal warming off northern central Chile peaking in Austral winter resulting from the propagation of waves forced at the equator during the development of El Niño events. The time delay between the ENSO peak (Boreal winter) and this coastal warming (Austral winter) can be understood in terms of the differential contribution of the equatorially-forced propagating baroclinic waves to the warming along the coast. In particular, the difference in phase speeds of the waves (the high-order mode the wave the slower) implies that they do not overlap along their propagation south of 20°S. This contributes to the persistence of warm coastal SST anomalies off Central Chile until the Austral summer following the concurrent El Niño event. This coastal warming is favorable to the development of strong SPMM events as the South Pacific Oscillation become active during that season. The analysis of the simulations of the Coupled Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) indicates that very few models realistically simulate this ENSO/SPMM relationship and associated oceanic teleconnection.

Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change

Upwelling along ocean eastern boundaries is expected to intensify due to coastal wind strengthening driven by increasing land-sea contrast according to the Bakun hypothesis. Here, the latest high-resolution climate simulations that exhibit drastic improvements of upwelling processes reveal far more complex future upwelling changes. The Southern Hemisphere upwelling systems show a future strengthening in coastal winds with a rapid coastal warming, whereas the Northern Hemisphere coastal winds show a decrease with a comparable warming trend. The Bakun mechanism cannot explain these changes. Heat budget analysis indicates that temperature change in the upwelling region is not simply controlled by vertical Ekman upwelling, but also influenced by horizontal heat advection driven by strong near-coast wind stress curl that is neglected in the Bakun hypothesis and poorly represented by the low-resolution models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The high-resolution climate simulations also reveal a strong spatial variation in future upwelling changes, which is missing in the low-resolution simulations.

Warming signals in temperate reef communities following more than a decade of ecological stability.

Ecosystem structure and function are increasingly threatened by changing climate, with profound effects observed globally in recent decades. Based on standardized visual censuses of reef biodiversity, we describe 27 years of community-level change for fishes, mobile macroinvertebrates and macroalgae in the Tasmanian ocean-warming hotspot. Significant ecological change was observed across 94 reef sites (5-10 m depth range) spanning four coastal regions between three periods (1992-95, 2006-07, 2017-19), which occurred against a background of pronounced sea temperature rise (+0.80°C on average). Overall, fish biomass increased, macroinvertebrate species richness and abundance decreased and macroalgal cover decreased, particularly during the most recent decade. While reef communities were relatively stable and warming was slight between the 1990s and mid-2000s (+0.12°C mean temperature rise), increased abundances of warm affinity fishes and invertebrates accompanied warming during the most recent decade (+0.68°C rise). However, significant rises in the community temperature index (CTI) were only found for fishes, invertebrates and macroalgae in some regions. Coastal warming was associated with increased fish biomass of non-targeted species in fished zones but had little effect on reef communities within marine reserves. Higher abundances of larger fishes and lobsters inside reserves appeared to negate impacts of 'thermophilization'.

Fine-scale survey of intertidal macroalgae reveals recent changes in a cold-water biogeographic stronghold

Global warming has been causing severe impacts on marine ecosystems, a notorious one being shifts in the geographical ranges of species. The north-western coast of the Iberian Peninsula is an especially interesting zone to study distributional shifts as it has a strong latitudinal thermal gradient, is influenced by the Canary upwelling system (which partially cancels coastal warming) and holds some of the most diverse macroalgae communities in Europe. Notably, it is within this region that many cold-water species, common in northern Europe, have their southernmost distribution refuge. Recent studies hypothesize that the environmental conditions may be nonetheless changing and already threatening this biodiversity hotspot. The main goal of this study was to carry out a fine-scale assessment of the distributional limits of several macroalgae in North-western Iberia, as well as identify possible population and range shifts using historical data (2001-2005) as reference. In addition, non-indigenous species were also surveyed. We also assessed if the regions of (i) Galicia, (ii) Northern Portugal, and (iii) Central Portugal displayed distinctive characters regarding macroalgae composition and abundance. We identified an increase in abundance of some non-indigenous macroalgae as well as a decrease in the abundance of some cold-water species. In the most severe cases, cold-water species were extirpated along hundreds of km. The compounded effect of the decrease in the abundance of cold-water species and the increase in the abundance of non-indigenous species is leading to the homogenization of macroalgae communities in north-western Iberia.

Patterns and Mechanisms of Northeast Pacific Temperature Response to Pliocene Boundary Conditions

AbstractOcean‐atmosphere dynamics in the north Pacific play an important role in the global climate system and influence hydroclimate in western North America. However, changes to this region's mean climate under increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are not well understood. Here we present new alkenone‐based records of sea surface temperature (SST) from the northeast Pacific from the mid‐Piacenzian warm period (approximately 3.3–3.0 Ma), an interval considered to be an analog for near‐future climate under middle‐of‐the‐road anthropogenic emissions. We compare these and other alkenone‐based SST records from the north Pacific to fully‐coupled climate model simulations to examine the impact of mid‐Pliocene CO2 and other boundary conditions on regional climate dynamics and to explore factors governing model disagreement about regional temperature patterns. Model performance varies regionally, with Community Earth System Model 1.2 (CESM 1.2) and CESM2 performing best in regions with greater warming like the California Margin, though these models underestimate the warming evidenced in our new proxy record and others from the region. Single forcing simulations reveal a strong influence for prescribed land surface changes and higher CO2 levels on coastal warming patterns along the California Margin in CESM2. Furthermore, differences in shortwave and longwave radiation and circulation between the models, likely related to changes in the atmospheric component of the model, may play a key role in the ability of models to capture regionally‐varying patterns of Pliocene warmth. Regional patterns of temperature change inferred from geochemical records could therefore help to understand the impacts of different model parameterization schemes on regional climate patterns.

Prioritising conservation actions for extremely data-poor species: A risk assessment for one of the world's rarest marine fishes

Effective prioritisation of research and conservation action for threatened species requires understanding the relative importance of the various pressures they face. This can be difficult for rare, cryptic, and data-deficient species, particularly when drivers of population decline are complex and indirectly impact one another. We developed a risk assessment-based approach that accounts for cascading ecological changes and indirect impacts between human and environmental pressures for threatened species, for application when data-dense assessment approaches are not possible. We applied this framework to the Critically Endangered red handfish (Thymichthys politus), one of the rarest and most threatened fishes in the world, currently only known from two highly localised populations in Australia's south-east. Our approach identified the unique life history strategy of handfishes, coastal warming, indirect ecological pressures caused by recreational fishing, urban development, and poaching as the greatest current threats to the persistence of the species. Mitigation options identified to have the greatest immediate reduction in extinction risk include an ex situ captive population and release program to bolster numbers in the wild, and engagement with the commercial sea urchin fishery to help reduce impact within critical habitat. Our risk assessment process may provide a useful framework for allowing managers to make more informed and supported decisions for other species that are similarly data-poor, and when decisions would otherwise necessarily rely on best guesses that do not consider their broader ecological, environmental and anthropogenic contexts.

Sub-lethal and lethal effects of chronic and extreme multiple stressors on a critical New Zealand bivalve under hypoxia

Warming of coastal regions due to climate change is exerting chronic thermal stress on intertidal organisms, many of which are already living at or near their limits for thermal tolerance. In addition, increasing frequency of marine heat waves and algal blooms leading to hypoxic events in estuaries exert acute stresses on aerobic organisms. Hypoxia and warming rarely occur in isolation, and when combined, likely have synergistic detrimental effects on bivalves. Further, midday low tides have been identified as important drivers of mass mortality events for bivalves as a consequence of the combined effects of thermal stress and desiccation. Accordingly, the current study focuses on the sublethal and lethal effects of these combined stressors on the critical estuarine bivalve Austrovenus stutchburyi. Experiments were used to test the effects of simulated midday low tides combined with chronic warming and oxygen depletion on activity, respiration and survival of A. stutchburyi. A lethal emersion thermal threshold was surpassed at 33°C for treatments exposed to both hypoxic and normoxic treatments, suggesting extreme thermal events such as heatwaves during midday low tides could have substantial detrimental effects on bivalve populations and their vital ecosystem functions. Further, the ability of bivalves to survive heat and desiccation of midday low tide events was much reduced when they were exposed to even minor heat and hypoxia stress when immersed at high tide. The findings of the current study highlight important biological consequences of coastal warming combined with extreme temperature and hypoxic events observed in estuaries.

Slower Long‐Term Coastal Warming Drives Dampened Trends in Coastal Marine Heatwave Exposure

AbstractLong‐term temperature changes drive coastal Marine Heatwave (MHW) trends globally. Here, we provide a more comprehensive global analysis of cross‐shore gradients of MHW and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) changes using an ensemble of three satellite SST products during recent decades. Our analysis reveals depressed onshore SST trends in more than 2/3 of coastal pixels, including both eastern and western boundary current systems. These were well correlated with depressed trends of MHW exposure and severity, ranging from a −2 to −10 decrease in MHW days per decade and from a −2.5°C to −15°C.days per decade decrease in cumulative intensity. Results were consistent across all satellite products, indicating that these cross‐shore gradients are a robust feature of observations. ERA reanalysis data show that neither air‐sea heat fluxes nor wind driven upwelling were found to be consistent drivers. Global ocean circulation models (OFAM3 and ACCESS‐OM2) have limited ability to simulate the depressed onshore trends. A heat budget analysis performed in the Chilean coast region, where models agree with observations, showed that the gradient of temperature change was controlled by an onshore increase of longwave radiative cooling, despite an increase in upwelling. This highlights the complexity of small‐scale coastal ocean‐atmosphere feedbacks, which coarser resolution climate models do not resolve. Here, we show that global coastal regions may act as thermal refugia for marine ecosystems from aspects of climate change and pulsative (MHW) changes. Contrary to the literature, our results suggest that driving mechanisms are region dependant, stressing the necessity to improve climate models resolution.

Drivers of exceptional coastal warming in the northeastern United States

Drivers of exceptional coastal warming in the northeastern United States

Local Atmospheric Response to the Kuroshio Large Meander Path in Summer and Its Remote Influence on the Climate of Japan

AbstractThe Kanto district in Japan, including Tokyo, has 40 million inhabitants and its summer climate is characterized by high temperature and humidity. The Kuroshio that flows off the southern coast of the Kanto district has taken a large meander (LM) path since the summer of 2017 for the first time since the 2004–05 event. Recently developed satellite observations detected marked coastal warming off the Kanto–Tokai district during the LM path period. By conducting regional atmospheric model experiments, it is found that summertime coastal warming increases water vapor in the low-level atmosphere through enhanced evaporation from the ocean and influences near-surface winds via the vertical mixing effect over the warming area. These two changes induce an increase in water vapor in Kanto district, leading to an increase in downward longwave radiation at the surface and then surface warming through a local greenhouse effect. As a result, summer in Kanto district becomes increasingly hot and humid in LM years, with double the number of discomfort days compared with non-LM years. Our simulations and supplementary observational studies reveal the significant impacts of the LM-induced coastal warming on the summertime climate in Japan, which can exceed previously identified atmospheric teleconnections and climate patterns. Our results could improve weather and seasonal climate forecasts in this region.