Political Coalitions Research Articles

Problematising environmental governance and the politics of natural resource sovereignty in Brazil

ABSTRACT Locating the analysis in the context of the various shifts in Brazil’s development trajectory since 2003, this article problematises the dynamics underpinning processes of environmental governance. Adopting a critical institutionalist approach, the article analyses how evolving claims of sovereignty over natural resources are used to legitimise contested policy agendas for environmental governance of the Amazon region within Brazil’s coalition politics, and how bricolage processes (innovation, adaptation, and legitimisation) shape these agendas and their outcomes. In a context of territorial fragmentation and ideological differences between an expanding network of actors (federal, state, municipal and non-state) involved in the institutional bricolage of environmental policy-making, the analysis demonstrates that the coalition dynamics of each administration determines the extent to which environmental policies are implemented within Brazil as well as the social-environmental outcomes.

The Dynamics of Kikuyu-Kalenjin Ethno-Political Relationships: The Run-up to 2013 Elections in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya

2007 Post Election Violence (PEV). Surprisingly, in the following immediate national elections held in 2013, the two major protagonist ethnics; the Kikuyu and Kalenjin, previously embroiled in the political violence of 2007, came together in a new political coalition in the fight for the position of president and vice president. The elections witnessed the political elite skillfully harness their cultural institutions to achieve political power. The main concern of this study, therefore, was to establish the role played by certain cultural aspects of ethnicity in restructuring the political engagements between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin in Uasin Gishu in the run-up to the 2013 elections. To this end, the study employed the lens of instrumentalist and primordial theories while employing the historical method with a duality of an interpretivism philosophical underpinning and a qualitative approach. Primary data was analysed thematically and corroborated with secondary data. The study posits that some cultural aspects of both the Kalenjin and Kikuyu were instrumentalised by the political elite in Uasin Gishu to coalesce their people for political expediency. By the use of the same reverse logic, the study advocates the use of traditional African cultural structures to inculcate peace and political tolerance among the residents of Uasin Gishu as this historical study has proved possible.

Basic income in crisis? (Hard) lessons from the pandemic

AbstractThis short paper reflects on the key lessons we can learn from the political debate around and policy experimentation with (emergency) basic income schemes in the context of the COVID‐19 pandemic. While the pandemic crisis initially seems to have opened up a policy window for introducing a basic income as a crisis instrument, theoretical arguments and empirical observations strongly suggest the reliance of some basic income advocates on crisis events, such as the pandemic, to push forward their policy ideas involves wishful thinking rather than political reality. A feasible roadmap towards introducing basic income requires the hard work of raising public awareness, constructing broad constituencies, and building robust political coalitions rather than waiting for the next crisis to come around the corner.

Coalition politics under exceptional exogenous constraints: the Meloni government during the EU-financed economic recovery plan

ABSTRACT Since its inauguration, the coalition dynamics characterizing the Meloni government have been interrelated with managing one of the largest investment plans in Italian history: the Next Generation EU-funded recovery plan. This windfall represents both a historic opportunity for economic revitalization and an unprecedented external constraint for Italy. By linking two established research agendas, the coalition life cycle and the Europeanisation of domestic politics, this study examines the extent to which external constraints arising from EU membership may have affected coalition governance. Using a longitudinal design spanning almost three decades (1996-2023), the study finds that the implementation of the recovery plan is associated both with new trends and the accentuation of existing ones, including the strengthening of the prime minister’s role.

Caste and Electoral Behaviour in India: An In-depth Analysis

Caste has long played a pivotal role in shaping electoral behavior in India, significantly influencing political outcomes since independence. This paper examines the intricate relationship between caste and politics, tracing its roots to the colonial era and analyzing how caste-based political mobilization has evolved in contemporary times. The rise of caste-based political parties, such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and Samajwadi Party (SP), has redefined the Indian electoral landscape. Additionally, the impact of caste identities on voting behavior, the role of coalition politics, and the use of social media in targeting caste groups are explored. While caste-based politics has empowered marginalized communities, it also poses challenges to governance and social cohesion. The paper concludes by reflecting on the future of caste in Indian electoral politics, emphasizing the need for more inclusive governance.

Drivers of hate speech in political conversations on Twitter: the case of the 2022 Italian general election

We study the prevalence and characteristics of toxic speech on Twitter in the run-up to the 2022 Italian General election. We analyzed over 8.5 M tweets shared by 450k unique users and employed a machine learning classifier to estimate the toxicity score of their messages. We found that supporters of different political coalitions exhibit varying levels of toxic speech, sending between 6-8% of toxic messages overall. Notably, Centre-Left politicians received more toxic messages on average, with the largest target of hate receiving over 15,000 toxic replies. We employed Generalized Linear Models to study factors that drive hate speech to political targets, finding that, importantly, politicians employing more abusive and harmful language are also more likely to attract more inflammatory speech. Our findings underscore the critical need for targeted interventions to address hate speech online, fostering healthier dialogue and safeguarding democratic discourse.

Coalition Politics in Central Eastern Europe. Governing in Times of Crisis

Antologien Coalition Politics in Central Eastern Europe. Governing in Times of Crisis handlar som tittelen seier om koalisjonsregjeringar i Sentral- og Aust-Europa, her definert som dei ti post-kommunistiske landa som vart medlem av den Europeiske Unionen (EU) i 2004 og 2007: Estland, Latvia, Litauen, Polen, Tsjekkia, Slovakia, Ungarn, Slovenia, Romania og Bulgaria. Antologien dekkjer perioden frå 2008 til 2021 og er basert på forskingsprosjektet Party Government in Europe Database (PAGED). Coalition politics in Central-Eastern Europe. Governing in Times of Crisis is, as the title suggests, an anthology about coalition governments in Central and Eastern Europe, defined therein as the ten post-communist countries that became members of the European Union (EU) in 2004 and 2007: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria. The anthology covers the period from 2008 to 2021 and is based on the research project Party Government in Europe Database (PAGED).

Political and Intercultural Communication in Determining Presidential Candidates in the Indonesian Elections 2024

This study explores the dynamics of political communication in Indonesia, focusing on the 2024 presidential elections. As the country prepares for the presidential election in February 2024, since the general election is a form of post-reformation democratic process implementation that began in 1998, the process of forming political coalitions has become a significant aspect of the political landscape. Utilizing a phenomenological approach, the research examines the interplay between three distinct political cultures—parochial, subject, and participant—and their influence on voter engagement and candidate selection. Through in-depth interviews and participatory observation, the study reveals how political parties can tailor their communication strategies to resonate with diverse voter segments, thereby enhancing electoral participation and fostering a more inclusive democratic process. The findings highlight significant implications for political actors and scholars alike. By recognizing the unique characteristics and needs of each political culture, parties can develop effective coalition-building strategies that bridge cultural divides and mobilize support across Indonesia's heterogeneous electorate. This research not only fills existing gaps in the literature regarding the role of intercultural communication in Indonesian politics but also provides practical recommendations for political parties aiming to improve their engagement with voters. Ultimately, the study underscores the critical importance of adaptive communication strategies in promoting a more informed, engaged, and representative democratic system in Indonesia. Keywords: Elections, intercultural communication, political communication, political parties, presidential candidate.

Fragile States, Co-Optation, and the Logic of Political Survival

This article analyzes the issues of managing crises in the context of fragile states, co-optations and, consequently, focuses on the logic of political survival. Excluding particular social groups from exercising power increases the risk of serious internal political tensions and even civil war. Yet, the question remains: why do fragile state governments exclude social groups in the first place if this threatens the survival of the regime? In the political regimes of fragile states, an important response to patterns of social exclusion can be found in the formation of political coalitions. Ruling social groups have sufficient incentive to exclude groups even more powerful than themselves because they cannot credibly pledge loyalty to the ruling group. Hence, potential allies avoid joining coalitions with stronger ruling parties. The above problem of mutual support and joint commitment leads to potentially power-equivalent political alliances. Yet, political regimes of fragile states facilitate the creation of coalitions of less balanced power (co-option) with institutions that alleviate the problems of political tensions and differences. The above arguments regarding forming alliances and political parties are tested based on data on the political groups “grasping” power and their status. Moreover, in political regimes of fragile states, the elites “holding power” are more willing to conclude agreements that balance the political power of all possible coalition partners. In this context, however, the diverse specificity of political groupings determines the degree of balance of the particular political scene.

The price of politics: What the 2020 oil shocks in Nigeria teach us about transactional political systems

Political spending—funds that elite actors use to buy and sell political power—is the lifeblood of Nigerian politics. It fuels backroom deals, forges political coalitions, and is the means to incite or end violence. To date, political spending in Nigeria has largely been financed by its immense oil revenues flowing through the government. It is natural to assume that political budgets should rise and fall with oil’s boom-and-bust cycles, but the reality is not so straightforward. Based on an analysis of the 2020 oil crash in Nigeria, this paper examines how traumatic decarbonization—the sudden, unplanned loss of oil revenues—did not lead to a reduction in political budgets but did force a change in how they were funded and channeled. Despite the loss in oil revenues, patronage and the “contractocracy,” government contracts used to funnel rents to the elite, were protected and expanded massively in 2021 with funding from domestic and international loans. The 2020 oil crash demonstrated the resilience and rising cost of transactional politics in Nigeria, even when it came at the expense of the Nigerian people. Through this analysis, the paper further examines systemically corrupt political systems and how political actors adapt to changes in available political finance.

The influence of unstable coalition governments in Gauteng metropolitan municipalities

Background: Coalition governments involve multiple political parties uniting to govern because of the absence of a majority party in the council following electoral outcomes. In South Africa, coalitions have become much more common since the 2016 and 2021 local government elections.Aim: This study investigates the implications of unstable coalition governments on municipal administration within the Gauteng metropolitan municipalities.Setting: The study focused on the City of Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and the City of Johannesburg metropolitan municipalities in the Gauteng Province of South Africa.Methods: Employing a qualitative approach with a case study design, this research draws upon secondary sources and employs thematic analysis for a comprehensive examination of data.Results: The findings underscore that unstable coalition governments exert multifaceted effects on municipal administration in Gauteng. Firstly, they erode the foundational principles of democratic and accountable governance. Secondly, the instability adversely affects the provision of essential services. Thirdly, the process of budget formulation and approval is compromised. Fourthly, the precarious nature of political coalitions jeopardises creating a safe and healthy municipal environment and contributes to hung councils. Fifthly, municipal human resource practices are negatively influenced, alongside challenges in effectively managing municipal funds.Conclusion: There is a critical need for government and municipalities to institute effective legislation and policies addressing the challenges associated with unstable coalition governments in order to foster stability, promoting democratic values and ensuring efficient municipal administration within the Gauteng metropolitan context.Contribution: The study makes key recommendations for improving municipal administration under coalition councils in South Africa’s metros.

Building a Robust Federalism in India: Constitutional Provisions, Practical Challenges, and Pathways to Overcome

This study explores the intricacies of India's federalism, examining both the actual challenges encountered in implementing the system and the legal structure that establishes and governs it. The Indian Constitution aims to establish a balance of authority and responsibility between the central and state governments. It combines unique characteristics of unitary government with federal government. This study looks at the key constitutional provisions and amendments that specify the organizational structure of the federal government, including the division of legislative power, budgetary relationships, and administrative processes. Federalism cannot actually be implemented in India due to significant barriers, despite a constitution designed to maintain a careful balance. Administrative inefficiencies, political tensions, and economic disparities sometimes lead to strained relations between centers and states. This essay looks at these problems, highlighting instances of conflict and cooperation between different levels of government. This study aims to understand the evolution of Indian federalism by a critical analysis of case laws, policy decisions, and intergovernmental discussions. The paper also covers the effects of regionalism, coalition politics, and economic liberalization on the federal framework. The study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the practical aspects of constitutional federalism and the necessary modifications to enhance its efficacy by means of an examination of these characteristics. The findings underscore the necessity of continuous deliberation and adaptation to ensure that India's federalism is resilient and responsive to the aspirations of its diverse citizenry.

Development, democracy, and dependence in the Southern Cone: political coalitions, stabilizing mechanisms, and their hazards

This article explores the challenge of sustaining development-oriented political coalitions in ‘dependent intermediate democratic economies’ (IDDEs). Scholars have pointed out that the absence of upgrading coalitions in IDDEs, particularly in Latin America, results from weak economic and political institutions and fragmented political support, as well as from the political and social turbulences introduced by economic dependency. Our argument, however, is that some Latin American IDDEs have managed to craft semi-stable political configurations capable of sustaining development and reform processes with relative success. These intermediate coalitions pivot on context-specific stabilization mechanisms that balance institutional, political, and economic fragilities and tensions. To support this argument, we take issue with three countries in Latin America’s Southern Cone – Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay – and distinguish three different types of stabilization mechanism at play in each of these cases: an Argentine-style variant based on the hegemonic role played by a dominant political party, a Chilean-style variant based on elite consensus and the atomization of collective organization, and a Uruguayan-style variant sustained by stable links between and within economic and social sectors. Additionally, we explore how each of these configurations, due to their structure, carry inherent hazards that envision specific trajectories of destabilization.

Change from Above or Pressure from Below? The Diffusion of Cannabis Reform in Latin America

What explains variation in the adoption of cannabis regulation reforms, both for medical and recreational purposes, across Latin America? This article argues that social mobilisation is essential to understand where debates for reform emerge and become stronger. Yet it further contends that policy adoption depends on the existence of pro‐reform elite political coalitions. These coalitions in turn depend on whether drug policy becomes a legislative priority and on specific conditions of the party system. The article compares four countries that show variation in the timing and content of reform: Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Dinamika Koalisi Partai Politik dalam Pencalonan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden pada PEMILU 2024

Observing the dynamics of existing coalitions, the 2024 presidential election allows for the formation of four coalition axes. As of today, the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) is the first coalition to be declared in June 2022. Holding 26.82% of the DPR seats, the Golkar Party, PAN and PPP are in a coalition to face the 2024 General Election (Pemilu) and Presidential Election (Pilpres). The Gerindra Party and PKB appear to be the second axis coalition with 23.66% of the DPR seats. Meanwhile, the combination of the Nasdem Party, PKS and Democratic Party which formed the Change Coalition was able to accumulate the largest number of votes with 28.35% of the DPR seats. As for the PDIP, even though it has not yet appeared to build a coalition with other parties, it has a presidential boarding pass threshold of 20% to directly advance in the presidential election without having to form a coalition with other parties. This research uses a descriptive method with a qualitative approach. Research Method This research uses a qualitative approach with problem research aimed at obtaining an in-depth and comprehensive description of a phenomenon experienced by research subjects. Discussion results Based on the results of mapping political party support, the KPU noted that the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM), which supports Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is a political party coalition that has the most valid votes in the 2019 General Election results. The Advanced Indonesia Coalition has 59,762,053 votes. The decision to form a coalition with a political party which initially had opposing ideologies and nominate a candidate pair outside the cadre must ultimately be taken by the political party when it is about to advance in the contest. This is because the voting public in Indonesia is pragmatic. People look more at popular figures or the high electability of candidate pairs, rather than looking at the vision, mission or programs offered by political parties.

From regional autonomy towards horizontal and vertical congruence coalition politics in Polish regions in the period 1998–2018

ABSTRACT In 1999 regional self-government was established in Poland and, subsequently, politics began to operate in a new multilevel setting. The question raised in this article is, how did Polish parties adapt to functioning in a multilevel system focusing on coalition politics? The analysis of documents – regional assemblies’ resolutions were used to track regional coalition formation in the period 1998–2018 – was supplemented by data gathered from the author’s interviews with regional politicians. The tendency to avoid cross-cutting coalitions was evident from the first two elections when regional politics was rather autonomous. Vertically and horizontally congruent coalitions gradually became standard when advantageous conditions occurred after 2006. The particular features of the party system leading to the avoidance of cross-cutting coalitions were the role of socio-political cleavage, that is a ‘post-communist divide’ and, later, rising polarization within a bipolar party system. Cross-cutting coalitions were occasionally acceptable but never those requiring cooperation between a majority party forming the government and the main opposition party at the central level. Recent studies indicate the rise of divergent coalitions in Europe, but in Polish regions, the contrary tendency has been observed.

Racial Discrimination and Resistance in Judas and the Black Messiah Film

Judas and the Black Messiah reflects the real events focusing on O’Neal’s betrayal to Hampton in the late 1960s directed by Shaka King. This research aims to determine the racial discrimination towards the black characters and resistance strategies in the Judas and the Black Messiah (2021). In this research, the writer applied a qualitative research method with a descriptive analysis technique in analyzing the data. Furthermore, in this research, the writer utilized Racial Discrimination theory proposed by Rebecca M. Blank and Marilyn Dabady to examine the racial discrimination against the black characters. The results show black characters facing racial discrimination on a daily basis in three forms, such as in Explicit Discrimination, Statistical Discrimination and Profiling, and Organizational Processes. The members of the Black Panther Party are labeled as a group of criminals by the government and stated as a threat to national security. Thus, this makes the black characters have to suffer on a daily basis through physical attack from the police and often receive racial slurs. Nevertheless, the result also portrays the black characters in utilizing the resistance strategies to fight against racial discrimination. There are several strategies utilized by the black characters, such as Political Education, Coalition Building, Direct Actions and Protests, and Empowerment Through Leadership. It attempts to fight back against injustice treatment and government oppression of minorities. Keywords: Black Characters, Racial Discrimination, Racism, Resistance Strategies

Political influence on the investment of state-owned enterprises

ABSTRACT How does government influence over state-owned enterprises affect the latter investment decisions? We argue that governments use their influence over the SOEs to build or strengthen a political coalition that supports the governments’ agenda. We use a sample of 96,379 observations from publicly listed firms and SOEs from 41 countries and argue that the greater the potential conflict between principal-principal, the greater the investments by SOEs. Government influence over SOEs can lead to inefficient decisions, favoring investments in politically disputed regions over economically attractive ones. Our findings have theoretical implications for the literature on minority shareholders’ rights and government policy.

Debating the Populist Pariah: Changing Party Dynamics and Elite Rhetoric in the Swedish Riksdag

Radical right populist parties have often been treated as “pariahs,” being excluded from coalition politics in parliamentary democracies. We argue that negative rhetoric targeted at radical right populist parties in legislative debates is used by the established parties to distance themselves from such parties and that the incentives to do so depend on the political context. Using sentiment analysis of speeches in the Swedish Riksdag from 2010 to 2022, we find that rhetoric targeted toward the radical right Sweden Democrats is more negative than speech concerning other parties on average. We also find that this negative rhetoric declined over time, particularly from the center-right parties, as the formerly marginal Sweden Democrats gained more seats and became a potential partner for cooperation. Our analysis demonstrates how tracking parliamentary discourse provides insights into changing party dynamics. Our findings suggest that, as the prospects for populists' pariah status change, rhetoric from established parties reflects this shifting role in party politics, with enduring negativity accompanied by reduced hostility among the center-right parties with the greatest potential for cooperation.

The Politics of Legal Pluralism in a Muslim Society

Egor Lazarev has offered us a book of uncommon ambition and erudition. At its core, State-Building as Lawfare: Custom, Sharia, and State Law in Postwar Chechnya explores how elites and ordinary citizens pursue their interests by weighing the costs and benefits of using alternative legal frameworks in postwar Chechnya. By describing how politicians encourage nonstate legal remedies to build political coalitions—and how everyday Chechens engage in forum shopping when trying to manage their own legal issues—Lazarev teaches us about the challenges associated with the extension of state legal institutions in the wake of prolonged, nationalist conflict. Although Lazarev treats his exploration of legal pluralism as the theoretical framing for the book, such a reading belies what I view as his primary empirical contribution: a meticulous exploration of gender politics in the North Caucasus. In this review, I describe Lazarev’s arguments about elite and citizen legal strategies, discuss his understanding of gender disputes in a postconflict Muslim society, and offer a provocation for future research that would situate the study of Chechnya in a broader literature on autocratic politics.