CO2 Yr Research Articles

Karst cave, a seasonal carbon dioxide exchanger: an example of Sloup-Šošůvka Caves (Moravian Karst)

Part of the gaseous carbon dioxide (CO2) produced in karst soils / epikarst is transported into underground cavities / caves during the growing season by advective flux, diffusive flux, and flux associated with degassing of seeping water. In dynamic caves, accumulated CO2 is released into the outside atmosphere during the autumn-winter period through advective flux associated with ventilation of the cave in the upward airflow mode. This case study from the Moravian Karst (MK) showed that the net weight of CO2 released annually from the Sloup-Šošůvka Caves (total volume of 131,580 m3 and a total area of 17,950 m2) into the external atmosphere was 348 kg. Extrapolating this value to all known MK caves (area about 352,080 m2) yielded a total of CO2 flux of 6820 kg yr−1. This flux is representing only 0.024‰ of the annual soil respiration from entire MK area (about 2.81 × 108 kg CO2 yr−1).

Seasonal variability of coastal pH and CO2 using an oceanographic buoy in the Canary Islands

Ocean acidification, caused by the absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere into the ocean, ranks among the most critical consequences of climate change for marine ecosystems. Most studies have examined pH and CO2 trends in the open ocean through oceanic time-series research. The analysis in coastal waters, particularly in island environments, remains relatively underexplored. This gap in our understanding is particularly important given the profound implications of these changes for coastal ecosystems and the blue economy. The present study focuses on the ongoing monitoring effort that started in March 2020 along the east coast of Gran Canaria, within the Gando Bay, by the CanOA-1 buoy. This monitoring initiative focuses on the systematic collection of multiple variables within the CO2 system, such as CO2 fugacity (fCO2), pH (in total scale, pHT), total inorganic carbon (CT), and other hydrographic variables including sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST) and wind intensity and direction. Accordingly, the study allows the computation of the CO2 flux (FCO2) between the surface waters and the atmosphere. During the study period, stational (warm and cold periods) behavior was found for all the variables. The lowest SST values were recorded in March, with a range of 18.8-19.3°C, while the highest SST were observed in September and October, ranging from 24.5-24.8°C. SST exhibited an annual increase with a rate of 0.007°C yr-1. Warmer months increased SSS, while colder periods, influenced by extreme events like tropical storms, led to lower salinity (SSS=34.02). The predominant Trade Winds facilitated the arrival of deeper water, replenishing seawater. The study provided insights into atmospheric CO2. Atmospheric fCO2 averaged 415 ± 4 µatm (2020-2023). Surface water fCO2sw presented variability, with the highest values recorded in September and October, peaking at 437 µatm in September 2021. The lowest values for fCO2sw were found in February 2021 (368 µatm). From 2020 to 2023, surface water fCO2sw values displayed an increasing rate of 1.9 µatm yr-1 in the study area. The assessment of fCO2sw decomposition into thermal and non-thermal processes revealed the importance of SST on the fCO2sw. Nevertheless, in the present study, it is crucial to remark the impact of non-thermal factors on near-shallow coastal regions. Our findings highlight the influence of physical factors such as tides, and wind effect to horizontal mixing in these areas. The CT showed a mean concentration of 2113 ± 8 μmol kg-1 and pH at in-situ temperature (pHT,IS) has a mean value of 8.05 ± 0.02. The mean FCO2 from 2020 to 2023 was 0.34 ± 0.04 mmol m-2 d-1 (126 ± 13 mmol m-2 yr-1) acting as a slight CO2 source. In general, between May and December were the months when the area was a source of CO2. Extrapolating to the entire 6 km2 of Gando Bay, the region sourced 33 ± 4 Tons of CO2 yr-1.

Nitrogen deposition-induced stimulation of soil heterotrophic respiration is counteracted by biochar in a subtropical forest

Both atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and biochar application can markedly impact soil heterotrophic respiration (RH), an important component of the global carbon cycle. However, the interactive effects of N deposition and biochar application on soil RH in subtropical forest ecosystems remain unclear. Here, we conducted a three-year (2019–2022) field trial within a bamboo forest in subtropical China to examine the responses of soil physicochemical and microbial properties to N deposition and biochar application, and to elucidate how biochar regulates N deposition-induced change in soil RH. Nitrogen deposition stimulated soil RH by 8.1–9.8 % annually over three years compared to the control, and this stimulation was mitigated (by 8.1–8.9 % annually) with biochar addition. In the context of N deposition, the decrease of soil RH by biochar application was not through changing soil temperature, moisture or labile organic carbon content. Biochar treatment reduced the abundances of bacterial glycoside hydrolase family 48 gene (GH48) and fungal glycoside hydrolase family 7 cellobiohydrolase I gene (cbhI) and the activities of β-glucosidase and cellobiohydrolase (CBH), but increased the abundance of cbbL gene and activity of RubisCO enzyme. Furthermore, the RH was correlated positively (P < 0.01) with β-glucosidase and CBH activities and negatively (P < 0.01) with RubisCO enzyme activity. Structural equation modeling revealed that the biochar-induced reduction of soil RH under N deposition was associated with decreases in the abundance of cbhI gene and the activity of CBH in soils. We highlight that management practices can mitigate soil carbon loss in forests through modulating soil microbial functions under atmospheric N deposition, and that biochar application in Moso bamboo forests has the potential to reduce RH by approximately 7.6 × 106 t CO2 yr−1 under atmospheric N deposition.

A method for estimating localized CO2 emissions from co-located satellite XCO2 and NO2 images

Abstract. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its atmospheric concentration has increased by almost 50 % since the beginning of the industrial era, causing climate change. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for most of the atmospheric CO2 increase, which originates to a large extent from localized sources such as power stations. Independent estimates of the emissions from these sources are key to tracking the effectiveness of implemented climate policies to mitigate climate change. We developed an automatic procedure to quantify CO2 emissions from localized sources based on a cross-sectional mass-balance approach and applied it to infer CO2 emissions from the Bełchatów Power Station (Poland) using atmospheric observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) in its snapshot area map (SAM) mode. As a result of the challenge of identifying CO2 emission plumes from satellite data with adequate accuracy, we located and constrained the shape of emission plumes using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 column densities. We automatically analysed all available OCO-3 overpasses over the Bełchatów Power Station from July 2019 to November 2022 and found a total of nine that were suitable for the estimation of CO2 emissions using our method. The mean uncertainty in the obtained estimates was 5.8 Mt CO2 yr−1 (22.0 %), mainly driven by the dispersion of the cross-sectional fluxes downwind of the source, e.g. due to turbulence. This dispersion uncertainty was characterized using a semivariogram, made possible by the OCO-3 imaging capability over a target region in SAM mode, which provides observations containing plume information up to several tens of kilometres downwind of the source. A bottom-up emission estimate was computed based on the hourly power-plant-generated power and emission factors to validate the satellite-based estimates. We found that the two independent estimates agree within their 1σ uncertainty in eight out of nine analysed overpasses and have a high Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.92. Our results confirm the potential to monitor large localized CO2 emission sources from space-based observations and the usefulness of NO2 estimates for plume detection. They also illustrate the potential to improve CO2 monitoring capabilities with the planned Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) satellite constellation, which will provide simultaneously retrieved XCO2 and NO2 maps.

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation of urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from a multisector model with projected dynamic urban lands from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine 1st-order implications to the land system, crop production, and net primary production that can arise from the competition over land resources. By 2100, future urban extensification could displace 0.1 to 1.4 million km2 of agriculture lands, leading to 22 to 310 Mt of compromised corn, rice, soybean, and wheat production. When considering increased corn production required to meet demands by 2100, urban extensification could cut increases in yields by half. Losses in net primary production from displaced forest, grassland, and croplands ranged from 0.24 to 2.24 Gt C yr−1, potentially increasing land emissions by 1.19 to 6.59 Gt CO2 yr−1. Although these estimates do not consider adaptive responses, 1st-order experiments can elucidate the individual role of sub-sectors that would otherwise be masked by model complexity.

The Greenhouse Gas Budget of Terrestrial Ecosystems in East Asia Since 2000

AbstractEast Asia (China, Japan, Koreas, and Mongolia) has been the world's economic engine over at least the past two decades, exhibiting a rapid increase in fossil fuel emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has expressed the recent ambition to achieve climate neutrality by mid‐century. However, the GHG balance of its terrestrial ecosystems remains poorly constrained. Here, we present a synthesis of the three most important long‐lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) budgets over East Asia during the decades of 2000s and 2010s, following a dual constraint approach. We estimate that terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia is close to neutrality of GHGs, with a magnitude of between −46.3 ± 505.9 Tg CO2eq yr−1 (the top‐down approach) and −36.1 ± 207.1 Tg CO2eq yr−1 (the bottom‐up approach) during 2000–2019. This net GHG sink includes a large land CO2 sink (−1229.3 ± 430.9 Tg CO2 yr−1 based on the top‐down approach and −1353.8 ± 158.5 Tg CO2 yr−1 based on the bottom‐up approach) being offset by biogenic CH4 and N2O emissions, predominantly coming from the agricultural sectors. Emerging data sources and modeling capacities have helped achieve agreement between the top‐down and bottom‐up approaches, but sizable uncertainties remain in several flux terms. For example, the reported CO2 flux from land use and land cover change varies from a net source of more than 300 Tg CO2 yr−1 to a net sink of ∼−700 Tg CO2 yr−1. Although terrestrial ecosystems over East Asia is close to GHG neutral currently, curbing agricultural GHG emissions and additional afforestation and forest managements have the potential to transform the terrestrial ecosystems into a net GHG sink, which would help in realizing East Asian countries' ambitions to achieve climate neutrality.

Atmospheric CO2 emissions and ocean acidification from bottom-trawling

Trawling the seafloor can disturb carbon that took millennia to accumulate, but the fate of that carbon and its impact on climate and ecosystems remains unknown. Using satellite-inferred fishing events and carbon cycle models, we find that 55-60% of trawling-induced aqueous CO2 is released to the atmosphere over 7-9 years. Using recent estimates of bottom trawling’s impact on sedimentary carbon, we found that between 1996-2020 trawling could have released, at the global scale, up to 0.34-0.37 Pg CO2 yr-1 to the atmosphere, and locally altered water pH in some semi-enclosed and heavy trawled seas. Our results suggest that the management of bottom-trawling efforts could be an important climate solution.

Greenhouse gas emissions and their trends over the last 3 decades across Africa

Abstract. A key goal of the Paris Agreement (PA) is to reach net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 globally, which requires mitigation efforts from all countries. Africa's rapidly growing population and gross domestic product (GDP) make this continent important for GHG emission trends. In this paper, we study the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in Africa over 3 decades (1990–2018). We compare bottom-up (BU) approaches, including United Nations Convention Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) national inventories, FAO, PRIMAP-hist, process-based ecosystem models for CO2 fluxes in the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector and global atmospheric inversions. For inversions, we applied different methods to separate anthropogenic CH4 emissions. The BU inventories show that, over the decade 2010–2018, fewer than 10 countries represented more than 75 % of African fossil CO2 emissions. With a mean of 1373 Mt CO2 yr−1, total African fossil CO2 emissions over 2010–2018 represent only 4 % of global fossil emissions. However, these emissions grew by +34 % from 1990–1999 to 2000–2009 and by +31 % from 2000–2009 to 2010–2018, which represents more than a doubling in 30 years. This growth rate is more than 2 times faster than the global growth rate of fossil CO2 emissions. The anthropogenic emissions of CH4 grew by 5 % from 1990–1999 to 2000–2009 and by 14.8 % from 2000–2009 to 2010–2018. The N2O emissions grew by 19.5 % from 1990–1999 to 2000–2009 and by 20.8 % from 2000–2009 to 2010–2018. When using the mean of the estimates from UNFCCC reports (including the land use sector) with corrections from outliers, Africa was a mean source of greenhouse gases of 262221863239 Mt CO2 eq. yr−1 from all BU estimates (the subscript and superscript indicate min–max range uncertainties) and of +263717615873 Mt CO2 eq. yr−1 from top-down (TD) methods during their overlap period from 2001 to 2017. Although the mean values are consistent, the range of TD estimates is larger than the one of the BU estimates, indicating that sparse atmospheric observations and transport model errors do not allow us to use inversions to reduce the uncertainty in BU estimates. The main source of uncertainty comes from CO2 fluxes in the LULUCF sector, for which the spread across inversions is larger than 50 %, especially in central Africa. Moreover, estimates from national UNFCCC communications differ widely depending on whether the large sinks in a few countries are corrected to more plausible values using more recent national sources following the methodology of Grassi et al. (2022). The medians of CH4 emissions from inversions based on satellite retrievals and surface station networks are consistent with each other within 2 % at the continental scale. The inversion ensemble also provides consistent estimates of anthropogenic CH4 emissions with BU inventories such as PRIMAP-hist. For N2O, inversions systematically show higher emissions than inventories, on average about 4.5 times more than PRIMAP-hist, either because natural N2O sources cannot be separated accurately from anthropogenic ones in inversions or because BU estimates ignore indirect emissions and underestimate emission factors. Future improvements can be expected thanks to a denser network of monitoring atmospheric concentrations. This study helps to introduce methods to enhance the scope of use of various published datasets and allows us to compute budgets thanks to recombinations of those data products. Our results allow us to understand uncertainty and trends in emissions and removals in a region of the world where few observations exist and where most inventories are based on default IPCC guideline values. The results can therefore serve as a support tool for the Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement. The referenced datasets related to the figures are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7347077 (Mostefaoui et al., 2022).

Global Carbon Budget 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Temporal and spatial variations of air-sea CO2 fluxes and their key influence factors in seagrass meadows of Hainan Island, South China Sea

Seagrass ecosystems have received a great deal of attention for contributing to uptake of atmospheric CO2, and thereby helping to mitigate global climate change (‘blue carbon’). Carbon budgets for seagrass ecosystems are developed by estimating air-sea CO2 fluxes. Data for air-sea CO2 flux for tropical seagrass ecosystems are lacking, which is problematic for constraining global seagrass carbon budgets. Here, we sought to address this important data gap for tropical seagrass ecosystems (dominated by Thalassia hemprichii and Enhalus acoroides) from the Hainan Island of South China Sea, while also testing what the main factors driving the variations of air-sea CO2 fluxes are. We found that air-sea CO2 fluxes exhibited a U-shape diurnal variability from 6 a.m. to 6 a.m. of the next day, with the highest and lowest air-sea CO2 fluxes values at early morning and afternoon, respectively. Biological processes were the driving force for mediating diurnal variations of seawater pCO2. The pCO2, sea in different seasons displayed a trend of increasing from spring, reaching maximum in summer and then a decreasing trend after summer, where water temperature, wind speed and seagrass growth mainly drove the variations. This resulted in net uptake of CO2 in all seasons except during summer in our study seagrass ecosystems, with greater negative values found in autumn (−3.63 ± 0.76 mmol m−2 d−1) than those in winter (−2.84 ± 0.60 mmol m−2 d−1). While the nutrient loading induced seagrass biomass changes (especially the seagrass T. hemprichii), which mediated the air-sea CO2 fluxes changes among different seagrass meadows. Net annual CO2 uptake potential under low nutrient loading (−0.77 ± 0.16 mol m−2 yr−1) was 23–54 % greater than high nutrient loading seagrass meadows, with the average annual air-sea CO2 flux of the three seagrass meadows as −0.64 ± 0.13 mol m−2 yr−1. These results suggest that tropical seagrass meadows of Hainan Island are a significant CO2 sink of atmospheric CO2, but this capacity can be diminished by nutrient loading. Scaling up, we estimate the annual atmospheric CO2 uptake by seagrass meadows of Hainan Island (total area 55.28 km2) was 1544 t of CO2 yr−1, equivalent to the annual emissions from the wholesale, retail, accommodation and catering industries of 164,000 tourists in Hainan Island. With carbon neutrality becoming an important part of global climate governance, this study provides timely information for capitalising on the ability of seagrasses to contribute to natural climate solutions.

A new method for estimating carbon dioxide emissions from drained peatland forest soils for the greenhouse gas inventory of Finland

Abstract. In peatlands drained for forestry, the soil carbon (C) or carbon dioxide (CO2) balance is affected by both (i) higher heterotrophic CO2-C release from faster decomposing soil organic matter (SOM) and (ii) higher plant litter C input from more vigorously growing forests. This balance and other greenhouse gas (GHG) sinks and sources in managed lands are annually reported by national GHG inventories to the United Nations Climate Change Convention. In this paper, we present a revised, fully dynamic method for reporting the CO2 balance of drained peatland forest soils in Finland. Our method can follow temporal changes in tree biomass growth, tree harvesting and climatic parameters, and it is built on empirical regression models of SOM decomposition and litter input in drained peatland forests. All major components of aboveground and belowground litter input from ground vegetation as well as live trees and trees that died naturally are included, supplemented by newly acquired turnover rates of woody plant fine roots. Annual litter input from harvesting residues is calculated using national statistics of logging and energy use of trees. Leaching, which also exports dissolved C from drained peatlands, is not included. The results are reported as time series from 1990–2021 following the practice in the GHG inventory. Our revised method produces an increasing trend of annual emissions from 0.2 to 2.1 t CO2 ha−1 yr−1 for the period 1990–2021 in Finland (equal to a trend from 1.4 to 7.9 Mt CO2 yr−1 for the entire 4.3 Mha of drained peatland forests), with a statistically significant difference between the years 1990 and 2021. Across the period 1990–2021, annual emissions are on average 1.5 t CO2 ha−1 yr−1 (3.4 Mt CO2 yr−1 for 2.2 Mha area) in warmer southern Finland and −0.14 t CO2 ha−1 yr−1 (−0.3 Mt CO2 yr−1 for 2.1 Mha area) in cooler northern Finland. When combined with data on the CO2 sink created by the growing tree stock, in 2021 the drained peatland forest ecosystems were a source of 1.0 t CO2 ha−1 yr−1 (2.3 Mt CO2 yr−1) in southern Finland and a sink of 1.2 t CO2 ha−1 yr−1 (2.5 Mt CO2 yr−1) in northern Finland. We compare these results to those produced by the semi-dynamic method used earlier in the Finnish GHG inventory and discuss the strengths and vulnerabilities of the new revised method in comparison to more static emission factors.

Harvested winter rye energy cover crop: multiple benefits for North Central US

Cover crops (CCs) can reduce nitrogen (N) loss to subsurface drainage and can be reimagined as bioenergy crops for renewable natural gas production and carbon (C) benefits (fossil fuel substitution and C storage). Little information is available on the large-scale adoption of winter rye for these purposes. To investigate the impacts in the North Central US, we used the Root Zone Water Quality Model to simulate corn-soybean rotations with and without winter rye across 40 sites. The simulations were interpolated across a five-state area (IA, IL, IN, MN, and OH) with counties in the Mississippi River basin, which consists of ∼8 million ha with potential for rye CCs on artificially drained corn-soybean fields (more than 63 million ha total). Harvesting fertilized rye CCs before soybean planting in this area can reduce N loads to the Gulf of Mexico by 27% relative to no CCs, and provide 18 million Mg yr−1 of biomass-equivalent to 0.21 EJ yr−1 of biogas energy content or 3.5 times the 2022 US cellulosic biofuel production. Capturing the CO2 in biogas from digesting rye in the region and sequestering it in underground geologic reservoirs could mitigate 7.5 million Mg CO2 yr−1. Nine clusters of counties (hotspots) were identified as an example of implementing rye as an energy CC on an industrial scale where 400 Gg yr−1 of rye could be sourced within a 121 km radius. Hotspots consisted of roughly 20% of the region’s area and could provide ∼50% of both the N loss reduction and rye biomass. These results suggest that large-scale energy CC adoption would substantially contribute to the goals of reducing N loads to the Gulf of Mexico, increasing bioenergy production, and providing C benefits.

Monitoring and quantifying CO2emissions of isolated power plants from space

Abstract. Top-down CO2 emission estimates based on satellite observations are of great importance for independently verifying the accuracy of reported emissions and emission inventories. Difficulties in verifying these satellite-derived emissions arise from the fact that emission inventories often provide annual mean emissions, while estimates from satellites are available only for a limited number of overpasses. Previous studies have derived CO2 emissions for power plants from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and 3 (OCO-2 and OCO-3) satellite observations of their exhaust plumes, but the accuracy and the factors affecting these emissions are uncertain. Here we advance monitoring and quantifying point source carbon emissions by focusing on how to improve the accuracy of carbon emission using different wind data estimates. We have selected only isolated power plants for this study, to avoid complications linked to multiple sources in close proximity. We first compared the Gaussian plume model and cross-sectional flux methods for estimating CO2 emission of power plants. Then we examined the sensitivity of the emission estimates to possible choices for the wind field. For verification we have used power plant emissions that are reported on an hourly basis by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the US. By using the OCO-2 and OCO-3 observations over the past 4 years we identified emission signals of isolated power plants and arrived at a total of 50 collocated cases involving 22 power plants. We correct for the time difference between the moment of the emission and the satellite observation. We found the wind field halfway the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) yielded the best results. We also found that the instantaneous satellite estimated emissions of these 50 cases, and reported emissions display a weak correlation (R2=0.12). The correlation improves with averaging over multiple observations of the 22 power plants (R2=0.40). The method was subsequently applied to 106 power plant cases worldwide and yielded a total emission of 1522 ± 501 Mt CO2 yr−1, estimated to be about 17 % of the power sector emissions of our selected countries. The improved correlation highlights the potential for future planned satellite missions with a greatly improved coverage to monitor a significant fraction of global power plant emissions.

How do silicate weathering rates in shales respond to climate and erosion?

Mineral weathering, a major control on long term atmospheric CO2, can be limited by processes such as reaction kinetics, supply of fresh mineral, or water throughput in the weathering zone. In these cases, weathering fluxes increase with temperature, erosion, and runoff, respectively, and we refer to the regimes as kinetically limited (KL), erosive transport limited (ETL), and runoff limited (RL). Larger watersheds can exhibit mixtures of these behaviors in a transition regime (TR). To understand these weathering regimes, we focused on the lithology (shale) that is one of the most widespread lithologies exposed on continents globally. We identified and analyzed 142 shale watersheds across the United States, spanning a diverse range of climatic (mean annual temperature (MAT): 3–17 °C; mean annual precipitation (MAP): 220–1975 mm yr−1; potential evapotranspiration (PET): 908–2059 mm yr−1), topographic (mean catchment elevation: 78–2346 m; mean catchment slope: 0.4–28°), and hydrologic (annual runoff (q): 0.002–1.3 m yr−1) conditions. For these sites, we calculated silica fluxes (i.e., FSiO2) using SiO2 concentrations and river discharge measurements. We observed that when the humidity index (HI; MAP/PET) is <0.55, FSiO2 increases with MAP and q; however, when HI > 0.55 FSiO2, does not increase with MAP nor q. We posit that sites with HI < 0.55 are RL. The river chemistry for the RL sites is consistent with equilibrium between smectite and kaolinite. Fitting the data for sites with HI > 0.55 to an exponential temperature dependence, we find that the sensitivity of weathering to temperature is consistent with an apparent activation energy, Ea, of 56 ± 8 kJ mol−1. If sites with HI > 0.55 but average slopes <10°are removed, the value increases to 92 ± 10 kJ mol−1. This value is consistent with the Ea measured experimentally for the dissolution of the common shale clay, chlorite. To extrapolate from our measurements, we use geospatial-based definitions to classify HUC12 watersheds across the United States. This reveals that 48%, 37%, 9%, and 7% of US shale watersheds are RL, ETL, TR, and KL, respectively. Globally, we estimate that silicates weathering in shales consume 2.6 × 1012 mol CO2 yr−1, which is 22% of the total CO2 sequestered by silicate weathering.

Implications of the Riverine Response to Enhanced Weathering for CO2 removal in the UK

Enhanced silicate weathering, the application of crushed calcium and magnesium-rich rocks to arable cropland, has been proposed as a potential negative emissions technology for the drawdown of atmospheric CO2. Previous estimates have suggested that enhanced silicate weathering (EW) has the potential to remove significant quantities of CO2, as much as 6–30 Mt CO2 yr−1 for the UK. However, if secondary carbonates are precipitated during the riverine transport of the products of EW, a portion of this CO2 will be re-released, lowering the net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential of the mitigation strategy. Here, we assess the fluvial response to EW in the UK by calculating the expected riverine carbonate precipitation due to the dissolution of 10–50 t ha−1 yr−1 of silicate rock on available arable cropland in major UK catchments.Increases in calcite saturation due to the export of soluble cations sourced from EW from soil to rivers are simulated to cross thresholds for spontaneous carbonate precipitation in several major UK river catchments (e.g. the Great Ouse, Thames). Catchments most susceptible to potential secondary carbonate precipitation are those with a high ratio of cropland to water discharge. On average, carbonate precipitation for major UK catchments is expected to make EW 16% (10 t ha−1), 21% (20 t ha−1) or 27% (50 t ha−1) less effective at removing CO2 than that predicted in the absence of such precipitation. Furthermore, when placing strict silica limitations on weathering reactions within soils, the CDR potential of EW is reduced considerably, to 0.23 Mt CO2 yr−1.Although reducing the CDR potential of EW, we suggest that under rapid weathering conditions, carbonate precipitation in UK rivers will prevent pH increases over the safe level for freshwater ecosystems (pH > 9). Together, the simulations suggest that ambient hydrological conditions may make certain UK agricultural areas less effective for CDR by EW and call for methods to quantify secondary carbonate precipitation in response to EW treatments and to further investigate the role of silica saturation in suppressing weathering reactions.

National CO2budgets (2015–2020) inferred from atmospheric CO2observations in support of the global stocktake

Abstract. Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO2 is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries' carbon budgets. These estimates are based on “top-down” NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO2 measurements or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with “bottom-up” estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1∘ × 1∘ gridded dataset and a country-level dataset and are available for download from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) website: https://doi.org/10.48588/npf6-sw92 (Byrne et al., 2022). Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 Pg CO2 yr−1 (0.90–1.25 Pg C yr−1). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.

Limits and CO2equilibration of near-coast alkalinity enhancement

Abstract. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) has recently gained attention as a potential method for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) at gigatonne (Gt) scale, with near-coast OAE operations being economically favorable due to proximity to mineral and energy sources. In this paper we study critical questions which determine the scale and viability of OAE. Which coastal locations are able to sustain a large flux of alkalinity at minimal pH and ΩArag (aragonite saturation) changes? What is the interference distance between adjacent OAE projects? How much CO2 is absorbed per unit of alkalinity added? How quickly does the induced CO2 deficiency equilibrate with the atmosphere? Choosing relatively conservative constraints on ΔpH or ΔOmega, we examine the limits of OAE using the ECCO LLC270 (0.3∘) global circulation model. We find that the sustainable OAE rate varies over 1–2 orders of magnitude between different coasts and exhibits complex patterns and non-local dependencies which vary from region to region. In general, OAE in areas of strong coastal currents enables the largest fluxes and depending on the direction of these currents, neighboring OAE sites can exhibit dependencies as far as 400 km or more. At these steady state fluxes most regional stretches of coastline are able to accommodate on the order of 10s to 100s of megatonnes of negative emissions within 300 km of the coast. We conclude that near-coastal OAE has the potential to scale globally to several Gt CO2 yr−1 of drawdown with conservative pH constraints, if the effort is spread over the majority of available coastlines. Depending on the location, we find a diverse set of equilibration kinetics, determined by the interplay of gas exchange and surface residence time. Most locations reach an uptake efficiency plateau of 0.6–0.8 mol CO2 per mol of alkalinity after 3–4 years, after which there is only slow additional CO2 uptake. Regions of significant downwelling (e.g., around Iceland) should be avoided by OAE deployments, as in such locations up to half of the CDR potential of OAE can be lost to bottom waters. The most ideal locations, reaching a molar uptake ratio of around 0.8, include North Madagascar, California, Brazil, Peru and locations close to the Southern Ocean such as Tasmania, Kerguelen and Patagonia, where the gas exchange appears to occur faster than the surface residence time. However, some locations (e.g., Hawaii) take significantly longer to equilibrate (up to 8–10 years) but can still eventually achieve high uptake ratios.

Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting

Abstract. Despite an increasing attention on the role of land in meeting countries' climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, the range of estimates of carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) in available databases is very large. A good understanding of the LULUCF data reported by countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – and of the differences with other datasets based on country-reported data – is crucial to increase confidence in land-based climate change mitigation efforts. Here we present a new data compilation of LULUCF fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) on managed land, aiming at providing a consolidated view on the subject. Our database builds on a detailed analysis of data from national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) communicated via a range of country reports to the UNFCCC, which report anthropogenic emissions and removals based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) methodology. Specifically, for Annex I countries, data are sourced from annual GHG inventories. For non-Annex I countries, we compiled the most recent and complete information from different sources, including national communications, biennial update reports, submissions to the REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) framework, and nationally determined contributions. The data are disaggregated into fluxes from forest land, deforestation, organic soils, and other sources (including non-forest land uses). The CO2 flux database is complemented by information on managed and unmanaged forest area as available in NGHGIs. To ensure completeness of time series, we filled the gaps without altering the levels and trends of the country reported data. Expert judgement was applied in a few cases when data inconsistencies existed. Results indicate a mean net global sink of −1.6 Gt CO2 yr−1 over the period 2000–2020, largely determined by a sink on forest land (−6.4 Gt CO2 yr−1), followed by source from deforestation (+4.4 Gt CO2 yr−1), with smaller fluxes from organic soils (+0.9 Gt CO2 yr−1) and other land uses (−0.6 Gt CO2 yr−1). Furthermore, we compare our NGHGI database with two other sets of country-based data: those included in the UNFCCC GHG data interface, and those based on forest resources data reported by countries to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and used as inputs into estimates of GHG emissions in FAOSTAT. The first dataset, once gap filled as in our study, results in a net global LULUCF sink of −5.4 Gt CO2 yr−1. The difference with the NGHGI database is in this case mostly explained by more updated and comprehensive data in our compilation for non-Annex I countries. The FAOSTAT GHG dataset instead estimates a net global LULUCF source of +1.1 Gt CO2 yr−1. In this case, most of the difference to our results is due to a much greater forest sink for non-Annex I countries in the NGHGI database than in FAOSTAT. The difference between these datasets can be mostly explained by a more complete coverage in the NGHGI database, including for non-biomass carbon pools and non-forest land uses, and by different underlying data on forest land. The latter reflects the different scopes of the country reporting to FAO, which focuses on area and biomass, and to UNFCCC, which explicitly focuses on carbon fluxes. Bearing in mind the respective strengths and weaknesses, both our NGHGI database and FAO offer a fundamental, yet incomplete, source of information on carbon-related variables for the scientific and policy communities, including under the Global stocktake. Overall, while the quality and quantity of the LULUCF data submitted by countries to the UNFCCC significantly improved in recent years, important gaps still remain. Most developing countries still do not explicitly separate managed vs. unmanaged forest land, a few report implausibly high forest sinks, and several report incomplete estimates. With these limits in mind, the NGHGI database presented here represents the most up-to-date and complete compilation of LULUCF data based on country submissions to UNFCCC. Data from this study are openly available via the Zenodo portal (Grassi et al., 2022), at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7190601.

What can the Glasgow Declaration on Forests bring to global emission reduction?

What can the Glasgow Declaration on Forests bring to global emission reduction?

Carbon sink quantification aids for achieving the zero-emission goal: A case study in Japan

The Japanese government has issued its zero-GHG emission goal by 2050 and a short-term emission mitigation goal for 2030; however, some local communities face difficulties in making detailed mitigation plans. This study provided details on modelling and mapping carbon uptake (i.e., sinks from forest lands) at a high spatial resolution level in Fukuoka Prefecture in 2015. A scenario analysis was then conducted on the net carbon emissions by 2050 to discuss the achievement of the zero-carbon emission goal. The carbon sinks from forest land remaining in Fukuoka were estimated at a high spatial resolution level (forest managed-team level) for the year 2015. The carbon sinks from the pools (living biomass, deadwood, litter, and mineral soil) were approximately 2615 Gg CO2 yr −1. Carbon sinks from other forests (public-owned and private-owned) accounted for approximately 88.2%. The national forest carbon sinks account for approximately 11.8% of the total. The results of the BAU scenario showed that it was impossible to achieve its goal by 2050 without additional efforts on emission mitigation and uptake. As a result of the implemented scenarios, the goal could only be achieved by achieving the short-term mitigation goal for 2030 (3.2% decreased annually from the previous year), maintaining this mitigation trend until 2050, and increasing the level of carbon sink addition (5.3% annually increased from the previous year). This work will provide a precedent to support policymakers from global cities to clarify their net carbon emissions and make essential carbon mitigation and uptake goals.