CO2 Price Research Articles

A Combined Investment and Operational Optimization Approach for Power-to-Methanol Plants

In the global effort for industrial decarbonization, repurposing closed coal-fired power plants into power-to-methanol (PtM) plants offers a promising pathway to reduce CO₂ emissions while leveraging existing infrastructure. This study introduces a novel combined optimization approach using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) to simultaneously optimize the investment and operation of a PtM plant, assessing its economic viability. The model incorporates the operational flexibility of proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers in response to fluctuating electricity prices through a piecewise linear representation of its load–efficiency characteristic curve. A case study of a repurposed coal plant in Austria demonstrates the model's applicability and practical relevance. The results show that larger electrolyzer capacities, i.e., 434 MW, with flexible part-load operation can significantly reduce methanol production costs, i.e., EUR 0.8/kg, achieving competitiveness under high CO₂ pricing scenarios, i.e., EUR 500/ton. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the critical factors influencing production costs. This study concludes that the combined investment and operational optimization approach effectively captures the essential elements of PtM systems, enabling faster, better, and operation-informed investment decisions for innovative technologies to support the ongoing energy transition. These findings indicate that PtM technologies can be a viable solution for asset repurposing, grid stabilization, and decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors.

Assessing the impacts of low-carbon intensity hydrogen integration in oil refineries

This paper evaluates the potential impacts of introducing low-carbon intensity hydrogen technologies in two oil refineries with different complexity levels, emphasizing the role of hydrogen production in reducing CO2 emissions. The novelty of this work lies in three key aspects: Comprehensive system analysis of refinery complexity using real site data, integration of low-carbon Hydrogen technologies, long-term and short-term strategies. Two Colombian refineries serve as case studies, with technological solutions adapted to their complexity levels. The methodology involves evaluating different options for hydrogen production, accounting for improvement in technological efficiency over time.The refinery systems were evaluated in a cost-optimization model built in Linny-r. Three different scenarios were considered, Business-As-Usual (BAU), high, and low-ambitions decarbonization scenarios, focusing on the time horizons of 2030 and 2050.When comparing the two case studies, the preferred decarbonization strategy for both facilities involves the substitution of SMR technology with water electrolyzers powered by renewable electricity. Post-2030, biomass-based hydrogen technology is still a costly alternative; however, to achieve CO2 neutrality, negative emissions storage of biogenic CO2 emerges as an achievable alternative.Our results indicate the achievability of CO2 reduction objectives in both refineries. Our results show that achieving long-term CO2 neutrality requires both refineries to increase renewable electricity production by 5 to 6 times for powering water electrolyzers, steam production by 2 to 2.5 times for CO2 capture, and supply of dry biomass by 2.6 to 4.5 kt/d.The two most significant factors influencing the refining net margin in the decarbonization scenarios are primarily the CO2 and the renewable electricity prices. The short-term horizon emerges as the pivotal period, particularly within the high-ambition decarbonization scenarios. In this context, the medium complexity refinery demonstrates economic viability until a CO2 price of 140 €/t CO2, while the high complexity refinery endures up to 205 €/t CO2.The high complexity refinery is better prepared to face the challenges of decarbonization and the impacts generated on the refining margin. Compared to the BAU scenario, the high complexity refinery shows a negative impact on the net margin that corresponds to a 40 % and 5 % reduction in the short and long term, respectively. Meanwhile, for the medium complexity refinery, the impact on net margin amounts to a 52 % reduction in the short term and a 27 % improvement in the long term.Furthermore, our research highlights the significant potential for reducing CO2 emissions by fully eliminating the use of refinery gas as fuel, providing alternative applications for it beyond combustion.

Decarbonization of existing heating networks through optimal producer retrofit and low-temperature operation

District heating networks are considered crucial for enabling emission-free heat supply, yet many existing networks still rely heavily on fossil fuels. With network pipes often lasting over 30 years, retrofitting heat producers in existing networks offers significant potential for decarbonization. This paper presents an automated design approach, to decarbonize existing heating networks through optimal producer retrofit and ultimately enabling 4th generation operation. Using multi-objective, mathematical optimization, it balances CO2 emissions and costs by assessing different CO2 prices. The optimization selects producer types, capacities, and for each period their heat supply and supply temperature. The considered heat producers are a natural gas boiler, an air-source heat pump, a solar thermal collector, and an electric boiler. A non-linear heat transport model ensures accurate accounting of heat and momentum losses throughout the network, and operational feasibility. The multi-period formulation incorporates temporal changes in heat demand and environmental conditions throughout the year. By formulating a continuous problem and using adjoint-based optimization, the automated approach remains scalable towards large scale applications. The design approach was assessed on a medium-sized 3rd generation district heating network case and was able to optimally retrofit the heat producers. The retrofit study highlights a strong influence of the CO2 price on the optimal heat producer design and operation. Increasing CO2 prices shift the design towards a heat supply dominated by an energy-efficient and low-emission heat pump. Furthermore, it was observed that even for the highest explored CO2 price of 0.3€kg−1, the low-emission heat pump, electric boiler and solar thermal collector cannot fully replace the natural gas boiler in an economic way.

Capacity planning of wind-photovoltaic-electrolysis-battery system coupling renewable fuel synthesis

The wind-photovoltaic-electrolysis-battery (WPEB) system coupling fuel synthesis by supplying hydrogen and electricity simultaneously can reduce the carbon emission intensity of renewable fuels. However the capacity planning method is rarely reported, this work takes WPEB system coupling renewable methanol synthesis as an example. The business mode and the effect of load profile shape on the capacity configuration are first studied. Then, a two-stage capacity planning method is proposed to improve system performance: At the 1st stage, the capacity configuration is performed using 5 typical load profiles, and the case with minimum net present cost (NPC) is regarded as a pseudo-optimal solution. In the 2nd stage, the wind & solar power profile of the pseudo-optimal solution is standardized and the shape is used to build a variable renewable energy (VRE) flowing load profile as model input, the capacity planning result in the 2nd stage is regarded as the optimal case. The main conclusions are summarized below: (1) The WPEB system has five revenues from selling electricity, methanol, oxygen, CO2 trading in China certified emission reduction (CCER) market and carbon emission allowance (CEA) market. (2) Deep valley load profile obtains the lowest NPC of 2.7656 billion¥ and greatest internal rate of return (IRR) of 6.8843 % among 5 typical profiles. (3) The two-stage planning method can further decline the NPC to 2.2018 billion¥ and boost IRR to 10.5583 % by employing demand-side flexibility. (4) The sensitivity factors contributing to IRR orders from high to low are methanol price > O2 price > CO2 price of CCER > unmet H2 penalty > electricity price.

Exploring small-scale direct air capture in a building ventilation system: a case study in Linköping, Sweden

Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies have emerged as a promising solution to address climate change and meet global climate goals. However, despite the importance of DAC in designing carbon-negative buildings, there is a lack of research focusing on the energy and cost aspects in building ventilation systems. The objective of this research is to investigate the CO2 capture potential and economic viability of integrating small-scale DAC into a building ventilation system integrated within a gym space. A gym space located in the city of Linköping, Sweden, is used as the research object. Furthermore, the study investigates the CO2 capture potential across a portfolio of gym spaces corresponding to an area of 24,760 m2. The results show that the CO2 capture potential varies between 54 kg/day and 83 kg/day for the investigated gym space. Moreover, the total CO2 capture potential is between 588 ton CO2/year and 750 ton CO2/year for the portfolio of gym spaces. The results also demonstrate that regenerating the sorbent during non-operating hours is more energy-efficient and economically advantageous compared to performing four complete regeneration cycles during operating hours. Based on a sorbent capture potential of 0.2 mmol/g and 2.0 mmol/g, and a CO2 price of 1,000 SEK, the break-even price for energy is 0.25–0.53 SEK/kWh. Lastly, the research shows that, among the investigated cases, the only economically viable solution corresponds to sorbent capture potential 2.0 mmol/g and utilizing low-grade heat for the generation process, resulting in a total cost of 663 SEK/ton CO2.

Study on the Economic Operation of a 1000 MWe Coal-Fired Power Plant with CO2 Capture

The flexible operation of carbon capture units is crucial for the economic performance of coal-fired power plants equipped with CO2 capture systems. This paper aims to investigate the impact of electricity, CO2, and fuel prices on the economic operation of such plants. A novel economic optimization model is proposed, integrating a static model of the carbon capture system with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. A new concept, the CO2 boundary price, is introduced as a key metric for determining the operating conditions of CO2 capture units. The CO2 boundary price rises when the power load decreases due to the decline in power generation efficiency, and it also increases with rising fuel prices, as the cost of steam for CO2 capture increases. Additionally, when the objective is to meet power load demand, CO2 prices have a great influence on the operation of CO2 capture units, assuming fixed coal and electricity prices. However, when the primary goal is to maximize plant profitability, the system’s operational conditions are strongly influenced by the relative prices of electricity and CO2. The proposed optimization model and the uncovered price-effect mechanisms provide valuable insights into the economic operation of carbon capture power plants.

Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions

In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union cannot be reached. Already a target of 200 Mt CO2eq/yr requires CO2 prices above 100 €/tCO2 in 2030 across all sectors in all scenarios. The required CO2 price can increase to up to 450 €/tCO2 by 2030 if technologies are constrained, if no complementary regulatory measures are implemented, and if changes in consumer behavior towards a more sustainable lifestyle do not materialize.

Seeking sustainable efficient global agricultural production with nexus approach

This study aims to estimate the shadow prices of water and carbon dioxide (CO2) in global agriculture under three scenarios: pursuing economic efficiency, sustainable development goals (SDGs), and environmental protection. It assesses the social cost of environmental impacts compared to actual prices. This study also evaluates substitutability among water, labor, and capital in the three scenarios for developing relevant agricultural policies depending on distinct agricultural conditions. Social costs tend to be underestimated because they are not directly observed. Our society has faced an overproduction of agriculture in terms of CO2 emissions and the exploitation of water. This study employs a method of a directional technology distance function for global agricultural production based on Food and Agriculture Organization data on agricultural inputs and outputs. The following three critical findings were obtained: First, the average shadow price of water under the economic scenario was close to the current actual water prices, and water prices would increase if agricultural production accomplished the three SDGs (Goal 2, 6, and 13). Second, labor is substituted for water under the environmental scenario because water prices increase rapidly. In contrast, water is complementary to labor under the SDGs scenario, implying that labor becomes more important for increasing food production. Third, the current CO2 prices are lower than those in the economic scenario. These values are significantly lower than those under the SDGs and environmental scenarios. Based on these results, we conclude that agricultural products are often undervalued because the appropriate value of water is overlooked in real markets. The contribution to reducing CO2 in agriculture is insufficient, owing to current low carbon taxes.

Sustainable development of the water-energy-Co2 nexus in the refining sector: A stochastic multi-objective optimization under emissions trading systems

Refineries consume substantial energy and water while emitting significant CO2. Solvent-based Carbon Capture (CC) offers a viable CO2 mitigation solution but increases water and energy consumption and requires considerable investments. This research aims to overcome these barriers and improve the Iranian refining sector towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6, 7, and 13 by mitigating CO2 emissions, producing low-carbon hydrogen, and utilizing unconventional water resources for CC plants. A comprehensive nexus approach was incorporated to account for the intricate interconnections between SDGs and refineries' water, energy, and CO2 networks. We evaluate the implementation of CO2 market regulations corresponding to seven international Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs) of the EU, UK, New Zealand (NZ), Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), South Korea, California, and China in the Iranian refining sector to incentivize CC integration. The problem was formulated using Stochastic Multi-Objective Mixed-Integer Linear Programming optimization, with K-means Clustering applied to account for ETS CO2 price fluctuations and uncertainties. Results showed intense competition between economic and environmental objectives without ETS regulations, but appropriate ETS implementation could transform this conflict into a cooperative compromise. Under EU and UK scenarios, 60.3% and 67% of CO2 emissions could be avoided with fully covered capture costs, potentially leading to net economic profit through surplus allowance sales. Implementation of the other five ETSs could reduce capture costs by 18–67%, with a 16.4% CO2 avoidance.

Impact of different CO2 price paths on the development of the European electricity system

In energy system transformation studies, the assumption of linearly rising CO2 prices is common and based on the decreasing issued European allowances (EUA). The actual auction price for allowances is influenced by market dynamics, resulting in non-linear variations in CO2 prices due to the possibility of banking allowances. This study explores the impact of non-linear CO2 price trajectories on the European electricity market. Various scenarios, such as increasing prices with the market interest rate, early price peaks, collapse, or fluctuations, are examined until 2030. The study quantifies the effects on power plant investments, profitability, consumer costs, and government revenues. The findings reveal that early and high price signals lead to an earlier transition with 7 % more wind power plants but at 4 % higher costs. Conversely, lower initial prices delay power plant investments in wind power plants by 6 % and result in 21 % higher emissions. Compensation for climate impact costs can yield a positive cost-benefit analysis in scenarios with early and high price signals when emissions are avoided through mechanisms like the Market Stability Reserve (MSR).

Evaluating synthetic fuel production: A case study on the influence of electricity and CO2 price variations

To combat climate change, we need to reduce emissions from the transport sector. Synthetic fuels are a long-term solution for aviation, maritime and heavy machinery. Large-scale use requires cost-effectiveness, efficient production and resilience to price changes. In this case study, we simultaneously optimize the cell voltage of the solid oxide electrolysis cell, the heat exchanger network and the heat supply of a PtL-plant. PtL-efficiency and production costs are used as objectives to generate multiple Pareto fronts for future price scenarios. The results show that the sensitivity to price changes has different impacts on design and operating parameters, which can lead to unattractive solution domains in the Pareto front. Currently, synthetic fuels can be produced at 1.83–2.36 €/kg. In the best case, at 1.42–1.97 €/kg and 3.88–4.28 €/kg in the worst case. This paper supports decision-makers in planning PtL-plants to ensure sustainable synthetic fuel availability on a global scale.

Progressing from first-of-a-kind to Nth-of-a-kind: Applying learning rates to carbon capture deployment in Sweden

The deployment of CO2 capture technologies presents opportunities to store fossil fuel emissions from industries and power generation (CCS) and to enable carbon utilization (CCU). However, the costs for early CCS projects are high, and this is a challenge in terms of their economic viability, requiring a strong climate policy with high carbon prices for implementation. This work details a techno-economic assessment of the cost of carbon capture based on a hybrid method and individual project approach, using first-of-a-kind contingency factors and learning rates to study the evolution of carbon capture costs as installed capacity increases over time. The work is based on a case study of 147 Swedish industrial and combined heat and power plants (total of 176 stacks). The results are presented as marginal abatement cost curves, with consideration of early mover CCS projects and learning rates. Deployment scenarios are also presented that take into account an expected increase in the CO2 price. The findings indicate that when accounting for first-of-a-kind contingencies (100 % and 200 % increases in Nth-of-a-kind costs), 90 and 17 projects, respectively, of the total 176 emission sources studied have specific CO2 costs of <300 €/t. However, high learning rates (12 %) can reduce the capture costs from first-of-a-kind to Nth-of-a-kind levels within some 30 project installations (100 % contingency). With lower learning rates (3 %), the first-of-a-kind costs are reduced by 10 %–20 %. With the expected increase in CO2 prices, a peak in carbon capture deployment is observed around Year 2035, at a carbon price of 200 €/t.

Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization: EMF37 MARKAL–NETL modeling results

This paper examines the MARKAL-NETL modeling results for the Energy Modeling Forum study on Deep Decarbonization and High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37) with a specific focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and opportunities under different scenario guidelines, policies, and technological advancements.The results demonstrate that CDR, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC), and afforestation, are key technologies in deep decarbonization scenarios and account for 40–60 % of avoided carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions annually. From 2025 to 2050, cumulative CO2 abatement by CDR technologies will range from 37 to 47 billion tons (GtCO2), or more than 2 GtCO2 annually by 2050. The potential scale of CDR and its impact depends on the advancement and costs of energy supply and demand technologies, end-use sector electrification, and availability and costs of CDR. Results show that the price of carbon is substantially lower when advanced technologies are available, particularly in the EMF 37 carbon management scenarios [1].While BECCS deployment is likely to be constrained for environmental and/or political reasons, the results display relatively large-scale BECCS deployment. The study found that BECCS could make a substantial contribution to emissions reductions after 2035, and, in the medium term, CO2 sequestration by BECCS will depend on CO2 price; BECCS deployment starts at a carbon price of around $70/tCO2. Long-term CO2 sequestration by BECCS increases in all scenarios, reaching the same annual level of ∼890 MtCO2 by 2050 in net-zero CO2 scenarios. According to the modeling results, DAC acts as a true backstop technology at carbon prices of around $600/tCO2.

Modelling the economy-wide effects of unilateral CO2 pricing under different revenue recycling schemes in Austria – Searching for a triple dividend

In this paper we identify policy implications for implementing carbon pricing in Austria, taking into account model structure uncertainty. Methodologically, we compare the results of two macroeconomic models, DYNK (a New Keynesian model) and WEGDYN-AT (a neoclassical general equilibrium model), to evaluate the effects of carbon pricing under different revenue recycling options. Specifically, we examine the model results with respect to their findings regarding a potential triple dividend, that we define as a simultaneous materialization of i) a reduction in CO2 emissions, ii) positive effects on GDP and employment, and iii) positive and distributionally progressive effects in household consumption possibilities. Accounting for model structure uncertainty improves the robustness of our results; at least within the macroeconomic frameworks applied here. Our results confirm the tradeoff between equity and efficiency identified in previous analyses. In the New Keynesian model, but not in the general equilibrium model, we find evidence for a triple dividend for a combination of the recycling options of non-wage labor cost reductions and lump-sum per-capita transfers (“climate bonus payments”).

An Assessment of Germany’s Remaining CO2 Budget: Can Germany Still Afford to Destroy Villages to Burn More Coal?

The global climate budget for 1.5°C necessitates distributing future CO2 emissions to individual countries. In Germany, this translates to 3.1 billion tons (January 2022). All sectors must engage to meet this target, particularly the lignite (i.e. low-grade brown coal) sector. This entails leaving significant reserves untapped. Also, economic factors are already driving a decline in coal consumption, aided by Germany’s renewable expansion and rising CO2 prices. Forecasts suggest lignite phase-out by 2030, prompting reevaluation of mining plans without devastation of villages. The paper proposes new mining plans for the main lignite regions Rhineland and Lusatia.

Do current energy policies in Germany promote the use of biomass in areas where it is particularly beneficial to the system? Analysing short- and long-term energy scenarios

BackgroundPolicymakers are tasked with both driving the rapid expansion of renewable energy technologies and, additionally channelling the limited national potential of biomass into areas where it can provide the greatest benefit to the energy system. But do current policy instruments promote the use of biomass in these areas? As biomass is limited, its use must be sustainable without leading to further biodiversity loss or depleting forest or soil resources. In this study, short-term energy scenarios are generated using the BenOpt model, which take into account both current and alternative policy instruments under limited biomass utilisation. The results are compared with long-term, cost-optimal energy scenarios for the use of biomass.ResultsThe analysis reveals that the instrument of a GHG quota does not promote the use of biofuels in hard-to-electrify areas of the transport sector, where they should be cost-optimally allocated according to long-term energy scenarios. Biofuels are promoted for use in passenger road transport and not in the shipping or aviation sector. In contrast, alternative policy scenarios indicate that the sole instrument of a high CO2 price is more conducive to direct electrification and could displace more fossil fuels by 2030 than the GHG quota alone. This instrument also promotes the optimal use of biogas plants in the power sector in accordance with long-term cost-optimal developments.ConclusionsThe instrument of a GHG quota might lead to counterproductive developments in passenger road transport, but it also helps to ramp up the biofuel capacities required in shipping and aviation in the long term. However, it does not provide the necessary incentives for the ramp-up of battery electric vehicles, which would be the cost optimal solution in passenger road transport according to the long-term scenarios. Even though alternative policy scenarios show that the sole instrument of a high CO2-price is more conducive to direct electrification, a high CO2 price alone is not enough (e.g. in the heat sector) to promote the efficient use of biomass instead of simply covering the base load demand.

Management of textile waste in Europe: An environmental and a socio-economic assessment of current and future scenarios

Textile production and consumption continues to grow, and yet textile waste management in Europe remains suboptimal. This study assesses and compares the life cycle impacts of managing selected textile waste fractions via selected technologies, under current and future framework conditions. The study combines environmental and socio-economic analyses with data input from stakeholder consultation within the European Union. Preparing for reuse is the most beneficial management pathway from both an environmental and a socio-economic perspective. Overall, mechanical recycling is the second-most preferred pathway for most environmental impact categories. However, for recycling pathways to be economically competitive against incineration, either CO2 prices will have to increase, or technology and processing costs will have to decrease. The uncertainty analysis identified critical parameters, such as substitution factors and yields of most desirable products from the recycling processes. The results offer a detailed basis for prioritising technology pathways for future textile waste management in Europe.

Simulating climate policies influences how laypersons evaluate the effectiveness of climate protection measures

AbstractClimate change simulations allow the experience of complex processes in rapid progression. Additionally, they hold the potential to enable citizens to quickly evaluate the impact of measures offered as political options to mitigate climate change. Taking En-roads as a test case, we investigated whether exposure to a web-based climate simulation influences laypersons’ views on effectiveness of such measures with an experiment in Germany (N = 271). High usability ratings ascertained that the simulation can be used by lay-persons without detailed support. In line with this, app usage was effective. Using the climate simulation led to higher self-efficacy with regard to being able to evaluate policies with the help of tools. Moreover, comparisons with the control group suggested that app usage affects beliefs about the impact of specific measures such as CO2 pricing. Taken together, the results suggest that online climate simulations such as En-roads can help inform and empower citizens in the process of mitigation of and adaptation to climate change.

Ambitious efforts on residual emissions can reduce CO2 removal and lower peak temperatures in a net-zero future

Abstract Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is expected to play a critical role in reaching net zero CO2 and especially net zero greenhouse gase (GHG) emissions. However, the extent to which the role of CDR in counterbalancing residual emissions can be reduced has not yet been fully quantified. Here, we use a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model to develop a ‘Maximum Sectoral Effort’ scenario which features global emissions policies alongside ambitious effort across sectors to reduce their gross GHG emissions and thereby the CDR required for offsets. We find that these efforts can reduce CDR by over 50% globally, increase both the relative and absolute role of the land sink in storing carbon, and more evenly distribute CDR contributions and associated side-effects across regions compared to CO2 pricing alone. Furthermore, the lower cumulative CO2 and nonCO2 emissions leads to earlier and lower peak temperatures. Emphasizing reductions in gross, in addition to net emissions while disallowing the substitution of less durable CDR for offsets can therefore reduce both physical and transition risks associated with high CDR deployment and temperature overshoot.

On the cost of zero carbon electricity: A techno-economic analysis of combined cycle gas turbines with post-combustion CO2 capture

To achieve a sustainable electricity grid, affordable and dispatchable power capacity that supports grid stability and does not increase atmospheric CO2 levels will be required. Combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) with post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) can meet these requirements by capturing and permanently storing all combustion CO2 emissions and, coupled with negative emissions technologies, any remaining life-cycle emissions. For the first time, we present a comprehensive analysis of the technical and financial challenges of producing zero-carbon electricity from CCGTs on a life-cycle basis. We conclude that when the design is optimised, fossil CO2 capture fractions can be increased from 96% to 100% with minimal process modification, commercially available technology and an additional 0.5% decrease in thermal efficiency. This represents a significant 60–70% reduction in the additional efficiency penalty required to reach zero CO2 emission operation. The Cost of CO2 Avoided of 100% fossil CO2 capture is just 128 £/tCO2, a 3 £/tCO2 increase over the 95% gross CO2 capture fraction required to permit PCC projects in the UK. Indeed, within the bounds of the UK power CCS business model, we show that 100% fossil CO2 capture maximises both variable and capacity payments to the producer, resulting in a 2% decrease in the cost of power produced. For zero-carbon electricity on a life-cycle basis, the recapture and permanent geological storage of all remaining life-cycle CO2e emissions from plant construction & decommissioning, CO2 T&S network operation and the natural gas supply chain (operational CO2e emissions and methane leakage) increases the median Cost of CO2 Avoided to 178 £/tCO2 (130–371 £/tCO2), leading to the novel conclusion that a market mechanism equating to a CO2 price of over 178£/tCO2 is likely sufficient to incentivise the development of truly CO2-neutral CCGTs.