CO2 Mitigation Targets Research Articles

Estimating the CO2 marginal abatement cost and implications for climate policies in China’s industrial sector: A firm-level analysis

ABSTRACT This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) for CO2 of China’s industrial sector. Leveraging comprehensive firm-level panel data spanning the period 2011–2015, we employ a parameterized directional output distance function to estimate the shadow price of CO2. By doing so, we derive the marginal abatement cost for individual firms across different years, which provides crucial insights into two fundamental aspects: first, the variation in shadow prices as indicators of the economic efficiency of existing climate policies; and second, the carbon price levels necessary to achieve CO2 mitigation targets in the future. Furthermore, we conduct scenario simulations to assess the potential industrial output loss resulting from forthcoming carbon policies, such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Our findings underscore the necessity for a considerably higher tax rate to stimulate pollution reduction in order to meet the desired emission targets.

Study on the optimal policy options for improving energy efficiency and Co-controlling carbon emission and local air pollutants in China

China faces multiple pressures from both global climate change and local pollution. The computable general equilibrium model is used to examine and compare three policy instruments including environmental protection inspection, carbon tax, and non-fossil energy subsidy, in order to determine the optimal policy option to improve energy efficiency and co-control carbon as well as local pollutant emissions with cost-effectiveness. The results show that the ongoing environmental protection inspection can generate a considerable reduction effect on China's local air pollutants and CO2, and its effect on local air pollutants is more significant. In comparison, the carbon tax policy achieves more balanced co-control effects on local air pollutants and CO2 reductions. As a result of recycling carbon tax revenue to support non-fossil energy subsidies, the energy efficiency and co-control effectiveness are better than a carbon tax alone, through promoting a composition effect and a technology effect in the economy. Moreover, if the environmental protection inspection involves CO2 mitigation targets, the policy effects of the carbon tax and non-fossil energy subsidies can be strengthened via increasing costs for non-compliance and improving enforcement. For some developing countries like China, given the lack of enforcement, corruption, as well as a questionable deterrent effect of market-based instruments, policy mix designs involving comprehensive inspection, might be second-best options for future energy efficiency promotion and co-control of local air pollutants and CO2 to gain double dividend in both economic and environmental welfare.

Critical provincial transmission sectors for carbon dioxide emissions in China

The identification of critical sectors at the provincial level is important for achieving China's CO2 mitigation target. Previous studies have mainly adopted production-based or consumption-based methods to identify critical sectors on two sides of the supply chain. Some sectors located in the intermediate parts of the supply chains are commonly ignored but are critical transmission centers for CO2 emissions. In this study, we use a betweenness-based method based on multi-regional input-output tables to identify critical provincial transmission sectors for CO2 emissions in China in 2007, 2010, 2012, and 2015. The results show that some critical provincial transmission sectors are overlooked by production-based or consumption-based methods but transmit vast amounts of CO2 emissions in the intermediate supply chains, such as the Metal products in Hebei, and the Smelting and pressing of ferrous and nonferrous metals in Gansu. Moreover, critical provincial transmission sectors vary among different provinces and exhibit different patterns in different years. Most critical provincial transmission sectors were located in the northern, central and eastern coastal regions in 2007 and 2010, then shifted to the western region in 2012. In 2015, these sectors were mainly located in the central and eastern coastal regions. Analyzing the spatiotemporal variations in critical provincial transmission sectors can contribute to region-specific policy formulation for CO2 emission mitigation. Improving the intermediate input efficiency may also contribute to CO2 emission mitigation, such as tax breaks or subsidies in critical provincial transmission sectors. It is important to consider betweenness-based results as a complement to policy decisions.

CO2 Pipeline Transport and Storage Network Cost Modelling and Multi-period Multi-scenario Stochastic Optimisation

Carbon capture and storage stakeholders focusing on transport and storage aspects need to consider a wide range of risks and uncertainties when making investment decisions, including market, regulatory, geological and technical risks and uncertainties. This paper presents a stochastic optimisation based real options valuation framework that can be implemented to model CO2 pipeline transport and storage network costs in which uncertainties and engineering flexibilities are appraised, optimised and factored into the investment decisions, so that investors or regulators can confidently and quantitatively evaluate incentives that can support CCS deployment at large scale. The paper describes the models developed for this purpose and demonstrates the application of the modelling framework for a realistically designed CO2 storage cluster around Rotterdam in the Netherlands. It shown that the CCS network evolution is mainly driven by geological and regional geography constrains, CO2 supply rates, and the engineering designs relying on these. It has also been shown that individual storage sites have significantly different cash flows, dictated by their physical characteristics and the injection concept chosen. The storage capacity uncertainty and CO2 supply uncertainty (or CO2 mitigation target uncertainty) have been identified as the main uncertainties affecting a CCS network cluster.

Effect of plantation of genetically modified trees on the control of atmospheric carbon dioxide: A modeling study

AbstractThe increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) gas concentration in the atmosphere is primarily responsible for the threat of global warming. Forest is one of the prime sinks of CO2. The reduction in the global forest cover due to human activities has contributed significantly to the increase in CO2 levels. Reforestation and afforestation are avenues to control the atmospheric CO2 level; however, several demographic, ecological, and economic constraints exist in the large‐scale plantations. In this scenario, the plantation of genetically modified trees, which absorb more CO2 from the atmosphere, may aid in attaining the CO2 mitigation target. In this study, a mathematical model is proposed to investigate the effect of the plantation of genetically modified trees on the control of the atmospheric CO2 level. A comprehensive qualitative analysis of the model is carried out. The model is calibrated to fit the actual data of global CO2 concentration, population, and forest area. Numerical simulations are carried out to show the effect of key parameters on the dynamics of forest cover and atmospheric CO2 gas. The optimal strategies for the reduction in CO2 concentration while minimizing the implementation cost of plantation programs are also investigated by proposing the optimal control problem.Recommendations for Resource Managers The enhanced concentration of is primarily responsible for anthropogenic global warming. Declination in global forest cover is contributing to the increase in the concentration. Plantation of trees is an avenue to combat global warming by reducing the atmospheric level. However, plantation activities are constrained by land availability and other constraints. In this scenario, the use of genetically modified trees may aid in achieving mitigation targets. Forest plantation using genetically modified trees brings more reduction in concentration in comparison to when planted trees are not genetically modified. The forest management policies should focus on the development and plantation of genetically modified trees having more sequestration capacity, so that the carbon stock per unit forest area can be increased. Such policies are also found to be helpful in attaining the target reduction in concentration under economic constraints.

China’s new “Green Policy” of sustainable mobility and development (decarbonization in China and within Belt and Road Initiative)

The aim of the article is to examine the practical transformations initiated by the leadership of the PRC in connection with the implementation of the concepts of “One Belt – One Road” initiative (BRI) and “Ecological Nation”. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the fact that it attempts to review a new China’s “green policy” of sustainable mobility and development in the context of the revival of the new “Silk Road diplomacy”, as a consequence and at the same time as one of the reasons for the changes taking place in the modern system of international relations. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was made up of both general theoretical and methodological levels of scientific research. A review of documents aimed at increasing the environmental responsibility of Chinese companies in the implementation of BRI projects is made. They reflect modern scientific approaches to ensuring the ecological balance. Environmental risks for projects on the territory of Eurasia, caused by the imperfection of environmental institutions, are considered. Author uses descriptive case study research method to analyse the possible ways to solve the fundamental problem, emphasizing the importance of Eurasia and transport logistics through it. The article provides an overview of potential CO2 mitigation targets for international railway and maritime transport. The main problems and opportunities of railway roads, Southern warm congested waters are considered. Special attention is paid to the development of Northern waters transhipment lines between China and OECD markets. The study geared towards investigating the issues that affects BRI states in full cooperation with China within initiative and is divided into three main sections, analysing Logistics, Ecological and Political aspects of BRI, as well as Chinese new approach of Green Sustainable Mobility and Development (China’s 14th Five-Year Plan). In conclusions part author elaborated that while thinking on the best ways of the decarbonizing of transport connections between BRI economies, all the existing risks and opportunities (development of Northern transhipment lines) should be considered.

CO2 Emissions Embodied in International Migration from 1995 to 2015.

While present international CO2 mitigation agreements account for the impact of population composition and structure on emissions, the impact of international migration is overlooked. This study quantifies the CO2 footprint of international immigrants and reveals their non-negligible impacts on global CO2 emissions. Results show that the CO2 footprint of international immigrants has increased from 1.8 gigatonnes (Gt) in 1995 to 2.9 Gt in 2015. In 2015, the U.S. had the largest total and per capita CO2 emissions caused by international immigrants. Oceania and the Middle East are highlighted for their large portions of immigrant-caused CO2 emissions in total CO2 emissions (around 20%). Changes in the population and structure of global migration have kept increasing global CO2 emissions during 1995-2015, while the reduction of CO2 emission intensity helped offset global CO2 emissions. The global CO2 mitigation targets must consider the effects of global migration. Moreover, demand-side measures need to focus on major immigrant influx nations.

Assessing negative carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of a national “fair share” of the remaining global carbon budget

We present an assessment of the plausible Paris-aligned fair share nett cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) quota for an example nation state, the Republic of Ireland. By Paris-aligned, we mean consistent with the Paris Agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, at Paris, France, in December 2015 (UNFCCC 2015). We compare and contrast this quota with both the aspirations expressed in the current Irish National Policy Position and current national emission projections. The fair share quota is assessed as a maximum of c. 391 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), equal to 83 tonnes of carbon dioxide (tCO2) per capita, from 2015, based on a precautionary estimate of the global carbon budget (GCB) and specific interpretation of global equity. Given Ireland’s high current CO2 per capita emission rate, this would correspond to sustained year-on-year reductions in nett annual CO2 emissions of over − 11% per year (beginning as of 2016). By contrast, the CO2 mitigation target indicated in the National Policy Position corresponds to nett annual reduction rates in the range of only −4.7% per year (low ambition) up to a maximum of − 8.3% per year (high ambition), and projections based on current and immediately planned mitigation measures indicate the possibility, instead, of sustained increases in emissions at a rate of the order of + 0.7% per year. Accordingly, there is a large gap between Paris-aligned ambition and current political and policy reality on the ground, with a significant risk of early emergence of “CO2 debt” and tacit reliance on rapid deployment of currently speculative (at a relevant scale and feasible cost) negative CO2 emission technologies to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere. While the detailed policy situation will clearly differ from country to country, we suggest that this methodology, and its CO2debt framing, may be usefully applied in other individual countries or regions. We recommend that such framing be incorporated explicitly into a global mitigation strategy via the statements of nationally determined contributions required to be submitted and updated by all parties under the Paris Agreement processes.

Estimating the Cost of Biofuel Use to Mitigate International Air Transport Emissions: A Case Study in Palau and Seychelles

International air transport is one of the fast-growing sources of CO2 emissions. However, it has always been omitted from the international emission mitigation pledges. The delayed mitigation process in this area may slow down the process of global CO2 emission control. In this article, we evaluated the potential to realize the emission mitigation targets in air transport through biofuel and estimated the corresponding cost. The emission from international air transport of Palau and Seychelles was taken as the example. Then, the emission caused by each airline to these two islands was calculated by the distance-based method, with information of the travelers’ arrival data, fuel consumption of different aircraft types, routes, and aircraft seat data. Future scenarios with and without commitment to CO2 mitigation targets were predicted to evaluate the emission difference. Then, we estimated the amount of biofuel required to fill the emission gap, and the corresponding cost based on the future biofuel price prediction. The results show that distance is the determining factor of international air transport emission per capita. The component of origin can decrease the aggregated emission per capita to small island destinations by 0.5–2%. The accumulated emission gaps are 3.15 Mt and 9 Mt for Palau and Seychelles, which indicates that 7.64 and 19.34 Mb of biofuel are needed for emission mitigation, respectively. The corresponding costs are $27–163 million and $72–424 million per year.

How to achieve the dual-control targets of China's CO2 emission reduction in 2030? Future trends and prospective decomposition

Environmental problems are escalating with rapid economic development; the Chinese government actively follows a low-carbon development pattern and has made CO2 emissions reduction commitments for 2030. In the future, how to realize the 2030 CO2 emissions peak target and intensity reduction target has become an urgent problem for China to solve. This study aims to predict China's CO2 emissions trends by 2030 under different scenarios and to calculate the reduction potential of each sector and the impact factors separately. A comprehensive forecasting model was developed in this study based on the Kaya identity, Log-Mean Decomposition Index (LMDI) model and Scenario Analysis methods. According to this model, China's CO2 emissions will grow to 112.89 million tons in 2030 but not reach its peak under the target scenario (TS), while the CO2 emissions intensity will be 0.40 ton per 10,000 RMB, achieving the “Paris Commitment” for CO2 intensity reduction targets. In terms of emissions reduction factors, such as economic growth, energy technology progress and energy structure optimization are the main factors to achieve CO2 reduction targets, with the annual average mitigation potential of 8.83 million tons, 9.41 million tons and 5.80 million tons, respectively. In terms of China's six economic sectors, the 2nd sector(industrial sector) will have the largest reduction potential during 2016–2030, with an average annual reduction of 23.24 million tons, while the reduction from energy technology advancements contributes the most, followed by economic growth and energy structure optimization, with the annual average reduction rate of 44.35%, 30.92% and 19.64%, respectively. The key pathways for reducing China's CO2 emissions in the future are to adjust the economic development model in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th sectors, to improve the energy efficiency of the 2nd sector, and to optimize the energy consumption structure of the 1st, 2nd, and 6th sectors. Finally, we suggest that China should construct mutually compatible mitigation policies networks and focus on the superposition effect of various subsystem policy objectives to realize the "Paris commitment" for China's 2030 CO2 mitigation targets.

Energy-intensive manufacturing sectors in China: policy priorities for achieving climate mitigation and energy conservation targets

ABSTRACTIn this study, a long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was built to evaluate the relative priority of three kinds of policies expected to be implemented for the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors (EIMS) in China to achieve CO2 mitigation and energy conservation targets. These policies encourage (1) the use of more electricity instead of coal; (2) the continuous improvement of energy efficiency; and (3) a shift to other less energy-demanding sectors. The results indicate that the policy of shifting economic activity from the EIMS to other sectors is most helpful for China to achieve its targets of mitigating CO2 emissions and conserving energy. Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity can help China to achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption. No single policy will allow China to achieve all the targets, emphasizing the need for an integrated policy design that combines all types of policies.Key policy insightsThe policy of encouraging a shift to less energy intensive industries should receive the highest priority in aiming to peak China's energy-related CO2 emissions as early as possible, and lower overall CO2 emissions, coal consumption and primary energy consumption in the long run.Encouraging a shift to electricity should go hand-in-hand with greater energy efficiency, otherwise such a policy cannot help China significantly reduce energy-related CO2 emissions.Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity should receive the highest priority in helping China achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption.

Invest in fast-charging infrastructure or in longer battery ranges? A cost-efficiency comparison for Germany

To reach ambitious CO2 mitigation targets, the transport sector has to become nearly emission-free and the most promising option for passenger cars are battery electric vehicles (BEV) powered using renewable energy. Despite their important benefits, BEV still face technological barriers, mainly their limited battery range and the limited availability of public fast-charging infrastructure. These factors are hindering the diffusion of electric vehicles (EV). The question of how to address these technical barriers has been widely analyzed in the literature, but so far there has been no cost-efficiency comparison of longer battery ranges and more widespread fast-charging infrastructure that evaluates them both technically and economically. This paper aims to find cost-efficient ways to address limited battery ranges and availability of public fast-charging infrastructure. We focus on German passenger cars that are licensed to commercial owners, since these are an important first market for EV. Our results indicate that fast-charging infrastructure is very cost-efficient as it enables significant proportions of BEV in the fleet at low infrastructure density. The technically feasible maximum BEV shares in the commercial sector can only be achieved with longer battery ranges. However, longer battery ranges are currently associated with comparatively high additional costs.

Trade-offs between electrification and climate change mitigation: An analysis of the Java-Bali power system in Indonesia

The power sector in many developing countries face challenges of a fast-rising electricity demand in urban areas and an urgency of improved electricity access in rural areas. In the context of climate change, these development needs are challenged by the vital goal of CO2 mitigation. This paper investigates plausible trade-offs between electrification and CO2 mitigation in a developing country context, taking Indonesia as a case study. Aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement, the Government of Indonesia has announced its voluntary pledge to reduce 29% of its GHGs emissions against the business as usual scenario by 2030. 11% of this should be attained by the energy sector. We incorporate the Indonesian Paris pledge into the modelling of capacity expansion of the Java-Bali power system, which is the largest power system in Indonesia. The LEAP model is used for the analysis in this study. Firstly, we validate the LEAP model using historical data of the national electricity system. Secondly, we develop and analyse four scenarios of the Java-Bali power system expansion from the base year 2015 through to 2030. These include a reference scenario (REF) to reflect a continuation of the present energy mix (REF), then a shift from coal to natural gas (NGS) (natural gas), followed by an expansion of renewable energy (REN) and, finally, the least-cost option (OPT). The shift to natural gas decreases future CO2 emissions by 38.2million ton, helping to achieve the CO2 mitigation target committed to. Likewise, an escalation of renewable energy development in the Java-Bali islands cuts the projected CO2 emissions by 38.9million ton and, thus, assures meeting the target. The least-cost scenario attains the targeted emission reduction, but at 33% and 52% lower additional costs compared to NGS and REN, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of CO2 mitigation scenarios range from 14.9 to 41.8US$/tCO2e.

Assessment of China’s Mitigation Targets in an Effort-Sharing Framework

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are a core component for post-2020 global climate agreements to achieve the 2 °C goal in addressing climate change. In the NDC, China has declared to lower carbon intensity by 60–65% from the 2005 level by 2030 and achieve the peak of CO2 emissions around 2030. In the context of the 2 °C goal, this study assesses China’s CO2 mitigation targets in the NDC using fair ranges of emissions allowances as calculated from an effort-sharing framework based on six equity principles (and cost-effectiveness). Results show that understanding the fairness of China’s NDC would rely heavily on selected equity principles. If the 65% target is implemented, China’s NDC would position within full ranges of emissions allowances and align with responsibility–capacity–need based on comparisons in 2030, and with responsibility–capacity–need and equal cumulative per capita emissions based on comparisons during 2011–2030. Implications of the NDC on China’s long-term CO2 mitigation targets beyond 2030 are also explored, which indicate that China’s energy system would need to realize carbon neutrality by 2070s at the latest in the scenarios in this study.

China's energy system transformation towards the 2 °C goal: Implications of different effort-sharing principles

In coping with climate change, China's CO2 mitigation targets should keep in step with the achievement of the long-term goal of holding temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century (this is referred to as the 2°C goal). Many previous papers have highlighted the implications of different effort-sharing principles and schemes in determining national contributions to global mitigations. In this paper, China's energy transformation towards the 2°C goal until 2100 is examined in an integrated-assessment model in light of different effort-sharing principles to understand how the application of such schemes may alter China's energy system transformation on a pathway to this long-term goal. Across scenarios, China's non-fossil energy will account for 50–70% and 85% of primary energy consumption in 2050 and 2100, respectively in the scenarios in this study. Fossil energy with carbon capture and storage technologies and non-fossil energy will dominate power generation in China over the long run. Coal will be phased out in end-use sectors and electricity use will expand regardless of the effort-sharing principles. The sensitivity analysis of long-term steady-state levels implies that the ultimate level that emissions could reach will have great influences on the energy system transformation in China.

Connecting water and energy: Assessing the impacts of carbon and water constraints on China’s power sector

Energy, water and carbon are inextricably linked. The limited endowments, uneven temporal and spatial distribution of energy and water resources pose great challenges to China’s sustainable development. In this paper, a bottom-up model (China TIMES model) is developed to integrate China’s energy system with water resources, to project water demand in power sector and to assess the impacts of China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) and water constraints on power generation portfolio out to the year 2050. The modelling results show that: (1) under reference scenario, electricity generation will increase from 4518TWh in 2010 to 13,270TWh in 2050, with CO2 emission from 3.1Gt to 6.1Gt and water withdrawal from 59Gm3 to 104Gm3; (2) CO2 mitigation target can help reduce water withdrawal in power sector by promoting the expansion of renewable technologies; (3) by affecting the cooling mixture, water cost has significant impact on water withdrawal in power sector; (4) when both CO2 and water constraints are considered, renewable technologies will be more prevalent.

Current status and future choices of regional sectors-energy-related CO2 emissions: The third economic growth pole of China

Understanding the current evolution and drivers behind regional sectors’ growing energy-related CO2 emissions is critical for developing global climate policies and providing insights into how our emerging economies can target lower emissions in the future. We propose estimation and explanation models of sectors’ energy-related CO2 emissions and present a novel scenario design, all of which are originally applied in the CO2 emissions of the third economic growth pole of China (i.e., the Bohai Rim region) during period 2002–2011. We can therefore track the evolution and cumulative change therein, identifying key drivers of CO2 emissions change, and performing scenario analysis and projection. The estimation results show that CO2 emissions on both regional and provincial scales are maintaining an upward trend. On the whole, Shandong has the largest emissions in absolute terms, followed by Hebei, Liaoning, Tianjin and Beijing during this period, while all sectors’ CO2 emissions changes show a fluctuating trend. With the exception of the residential life sector, all sectors’ cumulative changes have increased over time. In addition, the explanation of the results prove that changes in per capita GDP and energy intensity are, respectively, the most significant stimulator and inhibitor for emissions’ current status. Similarly, whether changes in sectoral structure play a positive or negative role depends on the increase or decrease in each sectors’ share in total GDP. Moreover, all sectors’ emissions in the Bohai Rim region will increase significantly regardless of the scenario. We can therefore achieve our 2020 CO2 mitigation targets across all sectors only under a scenario whose annual average GDP growth rates and energy consumption are both set by the “12th Five-Year Plan.”

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO2 mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO2 mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.

Highlighting Photocatalytic H2-Production from Natural Seawater and the Utilization of Quasi-Photosynthetic Absorption as Two Ultimate Solutions for CO2Mitigation

This paper reviews five potential solutions for CO2mitigation and theoretically analyzes related outstanding questions. Emission trading under the global mitigation objectives and policies is in dilemma because reducing emission while utilizing fossil fuels is a difficult balance. CO2capture and sequestration (CCS) technique offers a comprehensive solution, but it is risky and expensive. Analyses of the 100% renewable energy plan suggest hydrogen as a fuel of zero CO2emission. Photocatalytic splitting of natural seawater can be an ultimate scheme for the hydrogen production, providing that the associated technological constraints would be overcome. Soil CO2absorption in the arid regions (terms such absorption “quasi-photosynthetic absorption”) implies a potential solution, but the kinetics and overall importance are undetermined. Further investigations of these unresolved issues are strongly needed to realize the global CO2mitigation target. Comparing the five potential solutions, photocatalytic H2-production from natural seawater and the utilization of quasi-photosynthetic absorption are highlighted as two ultimate solutions.

Development and environmental impact of hydrogen supply chain in Japan: Assessment by the CGE-LCA method in Japan with a discussion of the importance of biohydrogen

Hydrogen is an attractive and clean source of energy with a high energy content and environmentally friendly production using green power. Hydrogen is therefore considered to be one of the future alternatives to fossil fuels that can limit the damage done by climate change. A dynamic GTAP model with LCA method is utilized herein in this investigation to forecast the development of the hydrogen supply chain and CO2 emissions in Japan. The supply chain incorporates six hydrogen-related industries – biohydrogen, steam reforming, electrolysis, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCV), hydrogen fuel cells (HFC), and hydrogen fueling stations.Baseline results reveal that the positive impacts on hydrogen application sectors (HFCV, HFC and HFS) are greater than hydrogen generation sectors (biohydrogen, steam reforming and electrolysis). Sensitivity analysis reveals that HFCV, HFC and biohydrogen are the three industries that are most sensitive to technology advance. Hydrogen-related industries will play a more important role if Japan shut down nuclear power plants or to meet the CO2 mitigation target in response to the conclusions of COP 19. Biohydrogen has the potential gradually to become a major hydrogen-generating technology for future development of green economy.