Cloud Motion Prediction Research Articles

Cloud Cover Segmentation and Motion Prediction from Satellite Imagery

Abstract: This research project is dedicated to achieving precise identification, segmentation, and motion prediction of cloud formations in satellite imagery. Leveraging the powerful U-Net, a renowned deep learning architecture for image segmentation, is crucial in addressing the intricate challenge of cloud detection and segmentation within remote sensing imagery. The automation of cloud identification processes within the project not only enhances weather forecasting capabilities but also contributes significantly to advancements in climate monitoring and environmental analysis. The incorporation of Long ShortTerm Memory (LSTM) networks facilitates cloud motion prediction, providing insights into the dynamic behavior of cloud formations over time. The robustness of the U-Net model, coupled with the enhanced capability of capturing intricate patterns and predicting cloud motion, establishes it as a valuable and comprehensive tool. This contributes to improving the accuracy and efficiency of cloud segmentation in satellite imagery, fostering progress in critical domains such as environmental research and meteorological applications

A Method of Ground-Based Cloud Motion Predict: CCLSTM + SR-Net

Ground-based cloud images can provide information on weather and cloud conditions, which play an important role in cloud cover monitoring and photovoltaic power generation forecasting. However, the cloud motion prediction of ground-based cloud images still lacks advanced and complete methods, and traditional technologies based on image processing and motion vector calculation are difficult to predict cloud morphological changes. In this paper, we propose a cloud motion prediction method based on Cascade Causal Long Short-Term Memory (CCLSTM) and Super-Resolution Network (SR-Net). Firstly, CCLSTM is used to estimate the shape and speed of cloud motion. Secondly, the Super-Resolution Network is built based on perceptual losses to reconstruct the result of CCLSTM and, finally, make it clearer. We tested our method on Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility TSI (total sky imager) images. The experiments showed that the method is able to predict the sky cloud changes in the next few steps.

Convolutional Neural Network for High-Resolution Cloud Motion Prediction from Hemispheric Sky Images

A novel high-resolution method for forecasting cloud motion from all-sky images using deep learning is presented. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was created and trained with more than two years of all-sky images, recorded by a hemispheric sky imager (HSI) at the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (IMUK) of the Leibniz Universität Hannover, Hannover, Germany. Using the haze indexpostprocessing algorithm, cloud characteristics were found, and the deformation vector of each cloud was performed and used as ground truth. The CNN training process was built to predict cloud motion up to 10 min ahead, in a sequence of HSI images, tracking clouds frame by frame. The first two simulated minutes show a strong similarity between simulated and measured cloud motion, which allows photovoltaic (PV) companies to make accurate horizon time predictions and better marketing decisions for primary and secondary control reserves. This cloud motion algorithm principally targets global irradiance predictions as an application for electrical engineering and in PV output predictions. Comparisons between the results of the predicted region of interest of a cloud by the proposed method and real cloud position show a mean Sørensen–Dice similarity coefficient (SD) of 94 ± 2.6% (mean ± standard deviation) for the first minute, outperforming the persistence model (89 ± 3.8%). As the forecast time window increased the index decreased to 44.4 ± 12.3% for the CNN and 37.8 ± 16.4% for the persistence model for 10 min ahead forecast. In addition, up to 10 min global horizontal irradiance was also derived using a feed-forward artificial neural network technique for each CNN forecasted image. Therefore, the new algorithm presented here increases the SD approximately 15% compared to the reference persistence model.

Image phase shift invariance based multi-transform-fusion method for cloud motion displacement calculation using sky images

For minute time scale solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting, the motion of clouds over PV power plant mainly contribute to the fluctuant and intermittent nature of solar PV power output. Therefore, research on cloud motion displacement (CMD) calculation to realize cloud motion prediction is a key sub-process for minute time scale solar PV power forecasting approaches. Fourier phase correlation theory (FPCT) is widely applied in CMD calculation for its superiority of simplicity and less computation, then an improved algorithm based on image-phase-shift-invariance (IPSI) is proposed to reduce the outlier probability of CMD results. However, at present, the current IPSI algorithm still has limitations and cannot avoid the occurrence of outliers altogether. In this paper, we presented a novel method, termed IPSI based multi-transform-fusion (MTF) method, to further improve the effectiveness compared with traditional FPCT and affine transform based IPSI method. First, three image transform methods satisfying IPSI condition, respectively wavelet transform (WT), affine transform (AT), and convolution transform (CT), are explored. Then the information increment of the transformed sky images using the above three methods is analyzed, respectively. Second, we determine the suitable image transform method for IPSI algorithm under specific cloud condition according to the corresponding information increment. Third, an IPSI based MTF method for CMD calculation in sky images is proposed. The original sky images are transformed through WT, AT, and CT to generate multiple images that maintain the same object motion information, then calculate the CMDs in each generated image. Finally, we apply Gaussian distribution to fit the multiple CMD values and taking its mathematical expectation as final CMD result. Various experimental results in 4 different scenarios show that the performance of the proposed approach is better than FPCT, AT based IPSI, and OF method, by reducing plenty of CMD outliers, thus delivering greater accuracy and robustness.

A Low Cost, Edge Computing, All-Sky Imager for Cloud Tracking and Intra-Hour Irradiance Forecasting

With increasing use of photovoltaic (PV) power generation by utilities and their residential customers, the need for accurate intra-hour and day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting has become critical. This paper details the development of a low cost all-sky imaging system and an intra-hour cloud motion prediction methodology that produces minutes-ahead irradiance forecasts. The SkyImager is designed around a Raspberry Pi single board computer (SBC) with a fully programmable, high resolution Pi Camera, housed in a durable all-weather enclosure. Our software is written in Python 2.7 and utilizes the open source computer vision package OpenCV. The SkyImager can be configured for different operational environments and network designs, from a standalone edge computing model to a fully integrated node in a distributed, cloud-computing based micro-grid. Preliminary results are presented using the imager on site at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden, CO, USA during the fall of 2015 under a variety of cloud conditions.