Climate Change Adaptation Research Articles

Determination of Shoreline Variability for Adaptation of Maritime Built Heritage to Climate Change: A Case of Southern Kenya Coast

ABSTRACT Erosion, shoreline retreat and accelerated beach loss at maritime heritage sites in Southern Kenya, is on the rise. Consequences ranging from gradual decay, collapse to outright catastrophic loss of pillars, mosques, tombs, wells and historic ruins are indicative of absent coastal management and climate adaptation plans. Unfortunately, the susceptibility of this heritage to suffer damage remains high due to its location, age, material and methods of construction. The archival research method, was selected to establish shoreline movement based on multi-temporal Landsat images from 1994–2023. Shoreline positions of the study area were analysed using geo-spatial statistical techniques executed in the GIS environment. These include Net Shoreline Movement, End Point Rate and Linear Regression Rate. Results of total shoreline change between 1994 and 2023 were −96.47 m. A mean erosion rate of −3.57 m/year with a maximum of −6.18 m/year reveals that erosion trends are significant in the cultural landscape. Short-term priorities include: physical stabilisations and relocation of built heritage from vulnerable zones. Long-term priorities include: restoration of mangroves, preservation of salt marshes and protection of seagrass beds. This paper contributes to the promotion of coping capacities and priorities for adapting maritime heritage to climate change.

Not Just ‘Sinking Islands’: Climate Change and Adaptation in Small Island Developing States

Not Just ‘Sinking Islands’: Climate Change and Adaptation in Small Island Developing States

Summer atmospheric drying could contribute more to soil moisture change than spring vegetation greening

Widespread spring vegetation greening (inferred by LAI) in the Northern Hemisphere leads to additional summer soil moisture (SM) deficits through increasing transpiration. Meanwhile, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has also been rising, which can increase atmospheric evaporative demand. However, the extent and magnitude of influence of these two factors on SM changes have not been elucidated. Here, based on the state-of-the-art reanalysis and remote sensing data, we use three statistical methods to quantify the contributions of spring LAI and summer VPD to summer SM deficit. The results show that summer VPD contributes more to SM change than spring LAI in the southwestern and northern regions of North America, northeastern Europe, and central and southeastern Asia, covering 13.4% of the vegetated areas despite of the certain influence of spring vegetation greening on summer soil drying. The results are of great significance for climate change adaptation and the enhancement of surface water management.

Structural insulation panel system (SIP) as an alternative for cooling energy saving, decarbonization, and energy cost reduction in hot and dry climates. A simulation-based approach

ABSTRACT During the last decades, the growing urban prospects represent a challenging condition to develop climate change adaptation solutions before the urban overheating effects and its challenges to the environment, human health, and building energy consumption, which is critical in hot arid climates with record-breaking heatwaves where society is turning to air conditioning instead of energy-efficient building envelopes. The primary aim of this study was to examine the influence of the Structural Insulation Panel (SIP) system heat transfer in energy-related aspects and contrast it with those of conventional construction systems. Therefore, a comparative study was carried out in low-income dwellings to measure the thermal transmittance of the building envelope and assess the thermal energy simulation allocated in Köppen-Geiger´s hot desert climate, characterized by typical maximum temperatures of 45°C in the summer season. The investigation ascertained the levels of energy consumption, the capacity of the air conditioning system, the associated energy costs, and the potential decrease in carbon footprint. The study shows SIP as a viable construction system alternative, the evidence shows a 20% heat gain reduction, the Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system capacity was reduced by 38%, and energy cost by 27%. The system also contributes to the decarbonization and carbon footprint by 20%. Likewise, to reduce the heat flow, a crucial element is evident, since transmittance in thermal bridges significantly affects the heat transfer in these low thermal conductivity systems with structural reinforcement elements.

Cropland Exposure to Extreme Dryness and Wetness in China Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

ABSTRACTGlobal warming by human activities have exacerbated the occurrence of extreme climatic events, which have taken a huge toll on human production and livelihoods. Predicting future changes in extreme wetness and dryness, along with the extent of cropland exposure to these conditions under various scenarios, is essential for effective climate adaptation and achieving sustainable development goals. This study employs the Standardised Antecedent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SAPEI) method to identify extreme dryness and extreme wetness in China for future projections (2021–2100), and to analyse the characteristics of changes in the pixel‐day, intensity, and affected area by extreme dryness and wetness, as well as the cropland exposures to them under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find that the intensity and spatial extent of extreme dryness and wetness significantly increase in future climate projections, especially under high‐emission scenario compared to low‐emission scenario. Under the scenarios with increased emissions, the cropland exposure increased in most parts of China. Therefore, it is particularly urgent to keep the low‐emission scenario in order to minimise the cropland damage caused by extreme drought and wetness in China in the future.

Towards the Development of a Comprehensive Heatwave Proneness Index and Identification of Hotspots Across Indian Mainland

AbstractHeatwaves (HWs) are one of the key‐emerging climatic hazards, with increasing duration, severity, and frequency all over the globe. Identifying HW‐prone regions and their evolving patterns is therefore essential for effective climate adaptation. To address this, we introduce the “Heat‐Wave Proneness Index (HWPI),” a novel metric to identify the key‐exposed regions or hotspots by integrating three key HW attributes—(a) the maximum annual HW magnitude, (b) the mean HW magnitude excluding the maximum (MeanX), and (c) the annual frequency (Frq) of HW events. By applying HWPI across the Indian mainland, we demonstrate its superiority to capture diverse regional variations in HW‐exposure more effectively than one of the widely‐used HW‐indices—Heat‐Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). Further to validate the reliability of the proposed index, top 10 HW‐affected years are identified across India since 1951, out of which four are found from the recent past decade (2010–2019) itself. A comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis is also conducted using the proposed HWPI, over the historical (1951–2020) and future (2021–2050) periods, which reveals the western, central, north‐eastern and western peninsular India to be the most HW‐prone regions in the country. India as a whole will experience approx. two‐fold increase in HW‐ proneness toward mid‐century relative to the 1981–2010 baseline, as depicted from the multi‐model multi‐scenario analysis. Overall, we expect the newly proposed HWPI and visual identification of the future‐projected HW‐prone regions will not only be useful to the scientific community but also for the policymakers to build climate‐informed decisions sufficiently in advance.

The Importance of Using Movies in EFL Classrooms

This study explores the profound impact of climate change on the indigenous communities of Northern Canada, with a focus on how rapidly changing environmental conditions are altering traditional lifestyles, health outcomes, and socio-economic structures. Indigenous populations, particularly those residing in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, are experiencing heightened vulnerability due to the interconnection between their cultural practices and the natural environment. The paper examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change, including shifts in ice cover, wildlife migration patterns, and extreme weather events, and analyzes how these changes disrupt hunting, fishing, and community cohesion. Additionally, the research delves into the broader implications for indigenous health, including mental health challenges and the exacerbation of pre-existing conditions. By considering both the scientific data and the lived experiences of Indigenous peoples, this study underscores the urgent need for tailored climate adaptation strategies that respect indigenous knowledge systems and promote resilience in these communities. The findings emphasize the importance of inclusive, culturally sensitive approaches to policy-making in order to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and ensure the preservation of Indigenous ways of life.

Integrating Wetlands as Nature-Based Solutions for Sustainable Built Environments

Wetlands are ecosystems that can provide numerous services critical for sustainable development, especially in urban areas, by ensuring environmental stability. The wetlands receive increasing recognition as Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) to environmental challenges. This review synthesizes the numerous roles of wetlands as NBSs for promoting sustainability in both rural and urban environments and highlights the potential contributions of multiple wetland services and benefits towards sustainable built environments. The review methodology involved an article search from various databases with the utilization of specific keywords in an organized framework to understand the contribution of wetlands as NBSs. The articles were reviewed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the existing research on the associated topics, focusing on specific sub titles and pre-selected themes. The findings of this review identify various parameters through which wetlands contribute to sustainable built environments, including ecological resilience, storm water management, climate adaptation, biodiversity enhancement, recreational opportunities, pollution control, and cultural values. The review also encompasses case studies of different types of wetland features such as riparian buffer zones, retention ponds, reed beds, bio swales, rain gardens, constructed wetlands, etc. in the urban environment and their contribution as NBSs. These contributions are discussed in terms of integration in urban development planning in different segments. Future work recommendations consist of a holistic integration of wetlands into urban planning and design considerations to promote more resilient, healthy, and sustainable built environments for present and future generations.

Climate change perceptions and adaptation by Sebei pastoralists in Mount Elgon, Uganda: a qualitative survey

BackgroundPastoralists’ sedentarisation and agriculturalisation might increase their vulnerability to climate change impacts, but few studies have investigated if this is the case in mountain areas. In Uganda, little is known about how Sebei pastoralists have perceived and adapted to such changes. This study sought to establish perspectives of Sebei pastoralists on climate change in terms of its occurrence and impacts as well as access to livelihood assets and or opportunities to withstand such challenges.MethodThis study was conducted in Mount Elgon areas of Uganda. A cross-sectional study design was employed using qualitative approaches. Data were collected using focus-group discussions with men and women village elders to assess their perceptions regarding climatic changes, impacts and adaption strategies used. Data were analysed using thematic and content analysis approaches. All analyses were done using NVivo version 14.ResultsRespondents reported changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall, fog and temperatures, with negative impacts on fodder availability, milk production and pests and diseases. Study participants mentioned using several adaptation strategies with regard to animal rearing, crop farming and livelihood diversification. Among others, participants reduced herd size, migrated longer distances, stored wild grass, used crop residues as feed and increased ‘self-medication’ of their cattle.ConclusionsAccess to funds, markets and technical advice were the main barriers to adaptation identified. Institutional support—now only focused on improved breeds—should consider the multiple strategies used by pastoralists, and the constraints they highlighted, including the need for mutual learning space.

Circular Economy, Pengelolaan Sampah Organik melalui Budidaya Maggot dan Jamur Tiram di Kecamatan Sambikerep Surabaya

This project aims to manage organic waste in Sambikerep District, Surabaya, through the cultivation of maggots and oyster mushrooms as part of a circular economy concept. The activity is conducted by Master of Management students from Universitas Airlangga in a Creating Shared Value (CSV) program to support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). This program provides economic opportunities for low-income communities, especially housewives, and promotes climate change adaptation and mitigation. The program’s success indicators include the number of participants, participant feedback, and the availability of supporting facilities, all of which were achieved successfully. A Social Return on Investment (SROI) analysis was also conducted to assess the program's impact on stakeholders, including students, local residents, and partners. The program results provide various skills and benefits, such as leadership, communication, and community relations, measured in monetary terms as a proxy for the training and resources provided.

Adaptation pathways and costing climate adaptation in Europe

Flexible adaptation pathways are vital for addressing intensifying climate hazards and their wide-ranging impacts across Europe. A 2024 World Bank and European Commission report provides insights how countries can identify the needs and costs of adaptation strategies.

Responses of vegetation low-growth to Extreme Climate Events on the Mongolian Plateau

Since the 21st century began, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have significantly increased globally, becoming a widely recognized phenomenon of global change. These extreme events, including droughts and heatwaves, have profound impacts on the structure and function of ecosystems. This study focuses on the Mongolian Plateau. It utilizes meteorological and remote sensing vegetation data, combined with consistency and sensitivity analyses. These approaches aim to provide an in-depth understanding of the relationship between various extreme climate events and vegetation low-growth. The study found that extreme drought and extreme heat events are the primary drivers affecting vegetation low-growth on the Mongolian Plateau. The analysis results indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to these extreme climate events is regulated by regional hydrothermal conditions, with vegetation in long-term drought areas being more susceptible to the suppression of extreme drought, while humid areas exhibit some resistance. As the temperature gradient increases, the sensitivity of vegetation to extreme high temperatures increases, while sensitivity to extreme low temperatures decreases. Furthermore, the study also revealed differences in the responses of different vegetation types to extreme events under the same climatic conditions, highlighting the ecological basis of ecosystem resilience and adaptability. This research not only enhances our understanding of vegetation dynamics under the influence of extreme climate events but also provides scientific evidence for ecological management and climate adaptation in the Mongolian Plateau region.

Finding Common Ground a comparison between coastal nature-based solutions in the Netherlands and British Columbia, Canada

Many coastal communities worldwide are facing challenges caused by increasing sea levels. However, urban development, population growth and industrialisation in low-lying delta regions persists. This includes the Netherlands and British Columbia, Canada. Both regions explore new and innovative flood risk and adaptation strategies by initiating nature-based solutions (NBS) pilot projects and integrating research and community initiatives. The aim of this paper is to learn from the experiences with these NBS pilots and support practitioners with insights and knowledge about the prospectives and implementation process of NBS. Our study takes a bird's eye view by diving into four NBS case study projects that try to enhance flood defence and quality of life while considering ecosystems and community values simultaneously. To better understand current initiatives on NBS, we first describe the historical trajectories of flood risk management and climate adaptation policy in both countries. Then we analyse two urban and two suburban case studies to identify and compare enablers and barriers that surround the implementation of NBS. We use the Pilot Paradox as a framework to reflect on the enablers and barriers, and to formulate recommendations for barriers that are common ground. We found that upscaling of the pilots forms an important challenge in both countries. We also found that Canada is interested in exchanging technical knowledge, experiences, and insights with other countries through the involvement of international researchers, consultants, and students in projects. Such collaboration between countries, communities, practitioners, and academics could accelerate the development of innovative climate adaptation strategies worldwide.

Forecasting Precipitation Using a Markov Chain Model in the Coastal Region in Bangladesh

This work explores the detailed study of Bangladeshi precipitation patterns, with a particular emphasis on modeling annual rainfall changes in six coastal cities using Markov chains. To create a robust Markov chain model with four distinct precipitation states and provide insight into the transition probabilities between these states, the study integrates historical rainfall data spanning nearly three decades (1994–2023). The stationary test statistic (χ²) was computed for a selected number of coastal stations, and transition probabilities between distinct rainfall states were predicted using this historical data. The findings reveal that the observed values of the test statistic, χ², are significant for all coastal stations, indicating a reliable model fit. These results underscore the importance of understanding the temporal evolution of precipitation patterns, which is crucial for effective water resource management, agricultural planning, and disaster preparedness in the region. The study highlights the dynamic nature of rainfall patterns and the necessity for adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate variability. Furthermore, this research emphasizes the interconnectedness of climate studies and the critical need for enhanced data-gathering methods and international collaboration to bridge knowledge gaps regarding climate variability. By referencing a comprehensive range of scholarly works on climate change, extreme rainfall events, and variability in precipitation patterns, the study provides a thorough overview of the current research landscape in this field. In conclusion, this study not only contributes to the understanding of precipitation dynamics in Bangladeshi coastal cities but also offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in climate adaptation and resilience planning. The integration of Markov chain models with extensive historical data sets serves as a powerful tool for predicting future rainfall trends and developing informed strategies to address the challenges posed by changing precipitation patterns.

How Much Warming Can Mosquito Vectors Tolerate?

ABSTRACTClimate warming is expected to substantially impact the global landscape of mosquito‐borne disease, but these impacts will vary across disease systems and regions. Understanding which diseases, and where within their distributions, these impacts are most likely to occur is critical for preparing public health interventions. While research has centered on potential warming‐driven expansions in vector transmission, less is known about the potential for vectors to experience warming‐driven stress or even local extirpations. In conservation biology, species risk from climate warming is often quantified through vulnerability indices such as thermal safety margins—the difference between an organism's upper thermal limit and its habitat temperature. Here, we estimated thermal safety margins for 8 mosquito species that are the vectors of malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile and other major arboviruses, across their known ranges to investigate which mosquitoes and regions are most and least vulnerable to climate warming. We find that several of the most medically important mosquito vector species, including Ae. aegypti and An. gambiae, have positive thermal safety margins across the majority of their ranges when realistic assumptions of mosquito behavioral thermoregulation are incorporated. On average, the lowest climate vulnerability, in terms of both the magnitude and duration of thermal safety, was just south of the equator and at northern temperate range edges, and the highest climate vulnerability was in the subtropics. Mosquitoes living in regions including the Middle East, the western Sahara, and southeastern Australia, which are largely comprised of desert and xeric shrubland biomes, have the highest climate vulnerability across vector species.

Connecting Global Water Agendas: From Wicked Problematization to Opportunities for Action

AbstractGlobal water security is one of humanities greatest challenges, yet it also represents an opportunity to catalyze transformative change. The very properties of water security that make it difficult to address also introduce potential for it to connect global agendas like climate change mitigation and adaptation planning and the sustainable development goals. We show that intergovernmental and scientific global agendas on water already embody this sentiment and highlight opportunities to better connect these agendas to accelerate action on water.

Highway to health: Microbial pathways of soil organic carbon accrual in conservation farming systems

Increasing pressure on arable land related to climate change mitigation and adaptation within recent policy frameworks has generated widespread interest in the effect of sustainable agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage. Current frameworks point to soil microorganisms and their functioning as the key drivers of SOC accrual. This study provides a comprehensive on-farm assessment of changes in SOC formation pathways (physico-chemical and microbial) and the underlying drivers comparing three soil use systems: conservation and conventional farming systems as well as permanently vegetated adjacent reference soils (i.e., field margins) without agricultural land-use.Overall, our results indicated substantial increases in extractable organic carbon (+22 %), microbial biomass carbon (+29 %) and necromass carbon stocks (+11 %) in soils of conservation farming systems as compared to conventional farming systems. Differences between all three soil use systems were strongly pronounced in the surface soil (0–5 cm) and declined in deeper soil layers. Structural equation modelling revealed a varying influence of SOC storage pathways among soil use systems, with microbial-mediated (‘in-vivo’) turnover and direct sorption being the most dominant pathways. Moreover, diversity of crop rotation and tillage intensity were identified as the most important factors influencing extractable organic carbon and carbon-liberating enzyme activity within conservation farming management. Our on-farm approach demonstrates that enhanced bioavailable carbon inputs and reduced soil disturbance are the key drivers for microbially-controlled SOC accrual in arable soils and that conservation farming systems with extended plant coverage and increased crop diversity can substantially advance the restoration of soil health.

Place-based climate commissions: embracing messy governmentality

The role of the ‘place’ in delivering climate action is vital, however much action on climate change locally is fragmented. Independent place-based climate commissions are a novel structure of climate governance developing at the subnational level across cities, regions and counties in the UK. Little is known about these emerging forms of local climate governance and their experiences of navigating ‘mess’ in governance practices and processes. Building on Castán Broto’s framework of messy governmentalities, this paper seeks to assess the capacity of climate commissions to affect meaningful climate mitigation and adaptation action, to understand how they interact with existing climate governance structures and to consider their longer-term sustainability. This paper examines the nature and impact climate commissions have had on local climate action, drawing on qualitative interviews with chairs, commissioners, members of the secretariat and associated local authorities of the Edinburgh, Belfast, Leeds, Surrey, Yorkshire and Humber, and Lincoln commissions in the UK. Analysing the journeys of the commissions through a lens of messy governmentalities, and a focus on bodies, strategies and knowledges within them, we draw out insights on how climate commissions came about, their function and role, their impact and influence, and how they have evolved.

Projecting impacts of extreme weather events on crop yields using LASSO regression

Extreme weather events are recognized as major drivers of crop yield losses, which threaten food security and farmers’ incomes. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather under climate change, it is crucial to quantify the related future yield damages of important crops to inform prospective climate change adaptation planning. In this study, we present a statistical modeling approach to project the changes in crop yields under climate change for eight majorly cultivated field crops in Germany, estimating the impacts of nine types of extreme weather events. To select the most relevant predictors, we apply the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to district-level yield data.The LASSO models select, on average, 62% of the features, which align with well-known biophysical impacts on crops, suggesting that different extremes at various growth stages are relevant for yield prediction. We project on average 2.5-times more severe impacts on summer crops than on winter crops. Under RCP8.5, crop yields experience a mean change from -2.53% to -8.63% in the far future (2069-98) for summer crops and from -0.80% to -2.88% for winter crops, without accounting for CO2 fertilization effects. Heat impacts are identified as the primary driver of yield losses across all crops for 2069-98, while shifting precipitation patterns exacerbate winter and spring waterlogging, and summer and fall drought.Our findings underscore the utility of LASSO regression in identifying relevant drivers for projecting changes in crop yields across multiple crops, crucial for guiding agricultural adaptation. While the present analysis can identify empirical relationships, replicating these findings in biophysical models could provide new insights into the underlying processes.

Assessing water resource vulnerability based on remote sensing data-enhanced SWAT+ and High-Resolution precipitation data

Climate change and human activities have significantly impacted the global water cycle, increasingly threatening water security across various sectors. By improving the performance of hydrological models in simulating the water balance, including precipitation and evapotranspiration, we can better support decision-making for regional water resource management and the deployment of climate change adaptation measures. This study aims to enhance the simulation performance of the vegetation growth module in the SWAT + model and reduce its uncertainty by dynamically updating the model’s data files with satellite-derived leaf area index and phenology data. Additionally, this study modified the weather station allocation mechanism in SWAT + to fully utilize the high-resolution meteorological data grids. The simulation results show that the enhanced SWAT + model achieved a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) between 0.84 and 0.90 and a PBIAS of less than 6 % for daily streamflow simulations at four hydrological stations in the Weihe River Basin. The enhanced SWAT + model’s water balance simulation results for the Weihe River Basin were used to analyze the vulnerability of water resources within the basin. The results indicate that the Qinling region, benefiting from its well-developed forest ecosystems, has the lowest green water vulnerability. The overall blue water vulnerability of the basin reached 1.12, suggesting that during periods of insufficient precipitation or intense evaporation, blue water resources may not meet the demands of agriculture, industry, ecology, and residential use. Among these, agricultural water use exhibits the highest vulnerability. Efficient irrigation technologies can be employed to improve irrigation water use efficiency, and the use of treated reclaimed water for agricultural irrigation can be promoted to reduce the demand for fresh blue water resources.