Climate Vulnerability Assessment Research Articles

Northeast Atlantic fish stock productivity hindcasts and forecasts from a Bayesian framework reveal pronounced climate‐induced dynamics

AbstractClimate change continues to exert pressure on ocean ecosystems. The fisheries‐related responses, such as altered body growth, recruitment and spatial distribution of the targeted stock(s), have generally been reasonably well investigated. Nevertheless, there are still important knowledge gaps in how biophysical drivers impact stock productivity and thereby sustainable harvest levels. Considering this, we investigated 26 fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, a region characterized by accelerated climate change effects and a diverse set of fisheries. A novel, stepwise, Bayesian framework to quantify stock productivity was established to identify shared trends and project future patterns, aiming at determining essential baselines for adaptive fishery management in the face of climate change. Despite variation among large marine ecosystems and stocks, an overall declining trend in productivity over the past four decades was observed, especially in high‐latitude areas. These hindcast results were mainly attributed to higher temperatures posing negative effects on productivity, which was dependent on the stock's thermal preference. Contrastingly, the proxy for food availability – gross secondary production – exhibited less consistent impacts. In the forecast, the applied Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSPs) indicated that most stocks are likely to encounter adverse effects, with the worst cases expected to occur under SSP2‐4.5 in the 2050s, and under SSP5‐8.5 in the 2090s. Thus, this study generally not only supports earlier climate vulnerability assessments (‘scorings’) of experts but also provides evidence for revised directional effects under climate change, underlining the complexity of processes affecting stock productivity.

Mapping coexisting hotspots of multidimensional food market (in)accessibility and climate vulnerability

With the increasing likelihood of agricultural production failures under a warmer global climate, the importance of markets in providing access to nutrient-dense foods (NDFs) through trade is predicted to grow. However, regions with relatively poor access to markets and supporting infrastructures (e.g. roads and storage facilities) are potentially ill-equipped to deal with both short-term hydrometeorological hazards such as droughts and floods, and longer-term shifts in agricultural productivity. Despite the increasing focus upon markets within academic and policymaking circles, a regional-scale assessment of these potentially coexisting hotspots of vulnerability has not been conducted. We conduct a two-stage geospatial analysis integrating three publicly available datasets across the Indian states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Combining the 2011 national census with the new PMGSY-GeoSadak database, we conduct nearest neighbour analysis to measure multidimensional market inaccessibility by: (i) distance from a settlement to its nearest village, town or city with a market, (ii) distance from a settlement to its nearest major road, and (iii) distance from a settlement to its subdistrict headquarters. We then correlate these measures with India’s only district-wise assessment of climate vulnerability to identify hotspots of market inaccessibility and climate hazards. We find that the three market access measures are spatially autocorrelated and positively interrelated at the settlement (n = 129 555) and district (n = 107) levels, meaning that settlements located further from their nearest market tend to experience poorer road connectivity and access to the subdistrict economic hub. Approximately 18.5-million people live in districts with relatively high climate vulnerability and relatively high and multidimensional market inaccessibility. Hotspots of coexisting vulnerabilities are also disproportionately populated by ‘Schedule Castes and Schedule Tribes’ (SC/ST) communities. The identification of coexisting hotspots has important implications for the development of equitable and resilient markets that bolster NDF access for climate vulnerable and nutritionally insecure populations.

Improving Earth System Model Selection Methodologies for Projecting Hydroclimatic Change: Case Study in the Pacific Northwest

AbstractThe rapid expansion of Earth system model (ESM) data available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) necessitates new methods to evaluate the performance and suitability of ESMs used for hydroclimate applications as these extremely large data volumes complicate stakeholder efforts to use new ESM outputs in updated climate vulnerability and impact assessments. We develop an analysis framework to inform ESM sub‐selection based on process‐oriented considerations and demonstrate its performance for a regional application in the US Pacific Northwest. First, a suite of global and regional metrics is calculated, using multiple historical observation datasets to assess ESM performance. These metrics are then used to rank CMIP6 models, and a culled ensemble of models is selected using a trend‐related diagnostics approach. This culling strategy does not dramatically change climate scenario trend projections in this region, despite retaining only 20% of the CMIP6 ESMs in the final model ensemble. The reliability of the culled trend projection envelope and model response similarity is also assessed using a perfect model framework. The absolute difference in temperature trend projections is reduced relative to the full ensemble compared to the model for each SSP scenario, while precipitation trend errors are largely unaffected. In addition, we find that the spread of the culled ensemble temperature and precipitation trends includes the trend of the “truth” model ∼83%‐92% of the time. This analysis demonstrates a reliable method to reduce ESM ensemble size that can ease use of ESMs for creating and understanding climate vulnerability and impact assessments.

Increasing Trust in Climate Vulnerability Projections

AbstractProjecting future trends is emerging as a key focus of community‐based climate vulnerability assessments. In these mostly qualitative studies, understanding of current vulnerability processes is used as a basis for identifying who and what are vulnerable to future changes, where, and why, and characterizing the key drivers of vulnerability and how they might change. Few, if any, of these studies engage with approaches for validating findings, reflecting the difficulties of validating mostly qualitative projections of highly uncertain futures, absence of directly measurable vulnerability outcomes, and lack of data on vulnerability drivers. Given the challenges of projecting future trends, this absence undermines trust in such work and limits opportunities to learn. This paper illustrates, with examples, how validation can be incorporated into the study design of community‐based climate vulnerability assessments through: (a) examination of retrospective projections to assess projection skill, (b) evaluation of projections made for future time periods which have since passed for consistency with what actually happened, (c) comparison of projections with empirical research that attempts to understand and constrain the effects of climate change using observed effects of weather variation, and (d) incorporation of demonstrated “best practices” into projection development, such as acknowledgment of areas of uncertainty, integration of diverse viewpoints, and utilization of multiple sources of information.

Materials and Climate Change: A Set of Indices as the Benchmark for Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for Tangible Cultural Heritage in Europe

Among the issues most related to climate change, the built environment is also subjected to short- and long-term risks. Referring to tangible cultural heritage, materials and buildings are subjected to different types of damage that require adaptive risk prevention and containment strategies, currently missing from conventional risk assessments. Thus, there is an increasingly urgent need for scientific and technical knowledge, tools, and solutions aimed at solving critical issues in cultural heritage due to climate change. In this context, the aim of this study is to study the mechanisms of impacts brought about by climate change and the formulation of a possible set of indices as benchmarks to measure climate change’s effect on cultural heritage buildings. The study is structured on a methodology that identifies three sections: the first and second parts systematize and critically interpret data on impact mechanisms and indices for climate vulnerability and risk assessment; the third part, data processing, reports the perspective findings. The main intermediate indices, contributing to a comprehensive damage index, were identified, and a procedural protocol was developed. Finally, through the correlation of indices, a potential case study could be analyzed, and benchmarks made effective. The study reports partial results of one of the “Ecosystems of Innovation” pilot projects funded by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The study is still a work in progress and needs advancement and deepening to verify case study indices.

A habitat‐centered framework for wildlife climate change vulnerability assessments: Application to Gunnison sage‐grouse

AbstractThe persistence of threatened wildlife species depends on successful conservation and restoration of habitats, but climate change and other stressors make these tasks increasingly challenging. Applying climate change vulnerability analyses to contemporary wildlife management can be difficult because most analyses predict direct effects of future climate on wildlife species at broad geographic scales, rather than assessing their habitats at local scales (<1 km) that correspond to site‐specific habitat management actions. We present a framework that synthesizes vegetation‐focused vulnerability assessments to assess multiple effects on wildlife species' diverse habitat needs, providing a scenario‐driven climate vulnerability assessment that maps differences in vulnerability of populations within a species' range. Our flexible habitat‐centered synthesis approach leverages available spatial datasets describing projected exposure to vegetation changes due to climate change and other potentially synergistic stressors, reclassifies and weights them based on available estimates of species' sensitivity to these changes, and recombines them to create <1‐km resolution maps of overall species vulnerability and threat‐specific habitat vulnerability. To demonstrate its potential to guide decision‐making, we applied this approach to the Gunnison sage‐grouse (Centrocercus minimus), a federally threatened habitat specialist that depends on sagebrush and mesic habitats that are imperiled by climate change. We mapped six threats forecasted out to the year 2070: direct effects of climate on (1) sagebrush cover loss and (2) mesic habitat drying, indirect changes in invasion risk from (3) pinyon–juniper conifers and (4) annual grasses, and potentially synergistic risk of (5) development and (6) wildfire. We then assessed species vulnerability for each of the eight extant populations under three climate scenarios: Optimistic, Continuation, and Pessimistic. We found that the extent of cumulative species vulnerability due to multiple habitat changes was far greater than the extent of any single habitat vulnerability. Over 75% of critical habitats were at risk under the Pessimistic scenario, and nearly two thirds of habitats were at high risk for three or more threats. Invasive species were the most widespread threat, highlighting the importance of indirect effects of climate change. We illustrate how our approach can be applied to the existing management planning strategies to better prioritize conservation of habitats for the persistence of threatened species.

A Multi-Scale Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assesment (C-VRA) Methodology for Corporate Scale Investments: West Bank-Palestine Case Study

Assessing climate vulnerability and risk has become a critical part of feasibility studies for infrastructure investments due to the increased frequency and severity of atmospheric disasters. However, evaluating climate parameters and disturbances can become challenging in vulnerable regions, such as the dry Mediterranean terrain. This is why climate vulnerability and risk assessment (C-VRA) should cover several parameters and factors besides climate analysis. In our case, the political stress and conflicts between Palestine and Israel settlements in the West Bank add additional risks and vulnerabilities. Our paper presents a C-VRA in the Nabi Saleh Village-West Bank of Palestine, where a dairy factory with a wastewater treatment plant will be built. The factory is estimated to use around 120 m3 of water daily and produce wastewater that will be treated and reused for agricultural irrigation. Unfortunately, the current practice in the region is to use untreated wastewater to irrigate trees and vegetables without restraint since the treatment capacity is low, and a large part of the wastewater is discharged untreated into the streams. The dairy factory is planned on a ridge at the upper watershed (headwater) of the 1795.04 km2 Yarkon Rive r basin. The local communities in the region are vulnerable to climate change impacts and related atmospheric disasters due to poverty, agriculture dependency, and political issues. To evaluate future climate projections, we used the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 6 (IPCC AR6) methodology. We also used the Mann-Kendal test to analyze the historical trend of climate parameters and projections for three scenarios (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) of AR6 for a future period until 2080, considering the life span of the investments and water-specific physical climate risks. Results showed that the historical temperature had a statistically significant increasing trend projected to continue in the next 60 years. Additionally, according to all three scenarios, the precipitation in the region will decrease in the coming decades. As a result, we identified one high (water scarcity) and two moderate-level risks (rainfall decrease and drought) for the corporate, all related to water security. Our methodology incorporates basin-scale assessments with regional and local vulnerabilities, making it a potential tool for critical infrastructure investments elsewhere.

NOAA fisheries research geared towards climate-ready living marine resource management in the northeast United States

Climate change can alter marine ecosystems through changes in ocean temperature, acidification, circulation, and productivity. Over the last decade, the United States northeast continental shelf (U.S. NES) has warmed faster than any other marine ecosystem in the country and is among the fastest warming regions of the global ocean. Many living marine resources in the U.S. NES ranging from recreational and commercial fish stocks to protected species have shifted their distribution in response to ocean warming. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA Fisheries) is responsible for the assessment, protection, and sustainable use of the nation’s living marine resources. In the U.S. NES, NOAA Fisheries has made substantial progress on climate research related to fish, fisheries, and protected species. However, more research is needed to help inform tactical management decisions with the goal of climate-ready living marine resource management. This is a major challenge because the observed physical and biological changes are unprecedented, and the majority of marine species assessments and management decisions do not utilize environmental data. Here we review the research accomplishments and key needs for NOAA Fisheries in the U.S. NES in the context of climate change and living marine resource management. Key research needs and products are: 1) Infrastructure with continued and enhanced ocean surveys that includes cooperative research with the fishing industry and other NOAA line offices and partners; 2) Tracking and projecting change, and understanding mechanisms including state of the ecosystem reporting, improved regional ocean and ecosystem hindcasts, forecasts, and projections, and continued process-based laboratory and field studies, 3) climate-informed management, including stock assessments that account for climate where possible, translation of changing species distributions into spatial management, climate vulnerability assessment and scenario planning, ecosystem-based management, management strategy evaluations, and increased multidisciplinary science that includes economic and social indicators.

Classification and Evaluation of Current Climate Vulnerability Assessment Methods

Classification and Evaluation of Current Climate Vulnerability Assessment Methods

Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Georgian Hydrology under Future Climate Change Scenarios

The Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) is a systematic process used to identify gaps in regional climate adaptation strategies. The CRVA method assesses regional vulnerability, adaptation capacity, exposure, and sensitivity to climate change to support improved adaptation policies. This CRVA study assesses Georgia’s climate exposure, geographic sensitivity, and socio-economic sensitivity by focusing on the impacts of climate change on regional hydrology. The projected change in climate extreme indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), is assessed against the 1961–1990 baseline under future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. These indices encompass various climate factors such as the maximum daily temperature, warmth duration, total precipitation, heavy and extreme precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation, and consecutive drought duration. This evaluation helps us understand the potential climate exposure impacts on Georgia. The climate-induced geographic sensitivity is examined based on water stress, drought risk, and changes in soil productivity using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The climate-induced socio-economic sensitivity is determined using the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP), Human Development Index, Education Index, and population density. The highest vulnerability to climate change was found in the Kakheti and Kvemo Kartli regions, with the vulnerability index values ranging from 6 to 15, followed by Mtskheta-Mtianeti, Samtskhe–Javakheti, and Shida Kartli with vulnerability index values ranging from 2 to 8. The location of these regions upstream of the Alazani-Iori, Khrami-Debeda, and Mktvari river basins indicates that the country’s water resources are vulnerable to climate change impacts in the future under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.

A co-produced national climate change risk and vulnerability assessment framework for South Africa

IntroductionThere are mounting demands to undertake climate risk and vulnerability (CRV) assessments for policy, planning, funding, insurance, and compliance reasons. In Africa, given the adaptation imperative, this is particularly important. Increasingly, it has become clear that sub-national assessments are needed to inform adaptation practice. However, there has been relatively little guidance on how to undertake these more local assessments and aggregate them making it difficult for national governments to know the extent and variability of climate vulnerability and risk across the country.MethodsIn South Africa, the national government, led by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE), undertook to establish a common framework to guide the development and review of CRV assessments. This paper presents the framework that was co-developed through a series of engagements with stakeholders active in implementing and supporting CRV assessments.ResultsThe framework is intended to provide guidance on what to consider when undertaking CRV assessments within diverse South African contexts in order to enable alignment, comparison, and aggregation between them and work towards an effective climate adaptation response across scales. Rather than standardizing a methodology, the framework promotes the use of a standard set of concepts as the basis for each assessment and profiles a diversity of methods, tools and data sources for applying the concepts in a contextually sensitive way. This provides a flexible yet structured sequence of three interlinked steps in a risk and vulnerability assessment process, namely: (1) Planning, (2) Scoping and (3) Assessing. The framework guides users through the choice and application of three assessment depths, depending on decision-context, resourcing and extent of pre-existing data and information. It encourages the integration of participatory and indicator-based methods through an impact chain approach, profiling more than 30 freely available tools and resources. This process builds a strong evidence base and a deepening set of engagements and shared understanding between relevant stakeholders, upon which to act.DiscussionThis South African process can provide insight and support for actors driving the climate agenda in other countries looking to develop comparable assessments as the basis to drive equitable and transformative climate action and learning.

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change, and implementing practical solutions

The impacts of climate change on species, and assessments of species vulnerability to climate change, have been well documented in the literature. However, translation of this research into on-the-ground interventions, for example by NGOs or protected area authorities, is lacking. Here we present a simple species climate vulnerability assessment tool, which assesses different dimensions of climate change vulnerability. The trait-based assessment leads to actionable climate-adaptive management recommendations. Additionally, we highlight projects funded by the Wildlife Adaptation Innovation Fund, which supports project ideas from around the world which reduce the vulnerability of wildlife to changes in weather and climate.

Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean.

Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.

Improving stakeholder engagement in climate change risk assessments: insights from six co-production initiatives in Europe

It is increasingly recognized that effective climate risk assessments benefit from well-crafted processes of knowledge co-production involving key stakeholders and scientists. To support the co-production of actionable knowledge on climate change, a careful design and planning process is often called for to ensure that relevant perspectives are integrated and to promote shared understandings and joint ownership of the research process. In this article, we aim to further refine methods for co-producing climate services to support risk-informed decision-support and adaptation action. By drawing on insights and lessons learned from participatory processes in six case studies in Northern and Central Europe, we seek to better understand how associated challenges and opportunities arising in co-production processes play out in different case-specific contexts. All cases have applied a standardized framework for climate vulnerability and risk assessment, the impact chain method. The analysis builds on multiple methods including a survey among case study researchers and stakeholders, interviews with researchers, as well as a project workshop to develop collective insights and synthesize results. The results illustrate case studies' different approaches to stakeholder involvement as well as the outputs, outcomes, and impacts resulting from the risk assessments. Examples include early indications of mutual learning and improved understanding of climate risks, impacts and vulnerability, and local and regional decision contexts, as well as actual uptake in planning and decision contexts. Other outcomes concern scientific progress and contribution to methodological innovations. Overall, our study offers insights into the value of adopting good practices in knowledge co-production in impact chain-based climate risk assessments, with wider lessons for the climate services domain. While collaborations and interactions have contributed to a number of benefits some practical challenges remain for achieving effective co-production processes in the context of climate change and adaptation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a carefully designed but flexible and iterative participatory approach that enables joint learning; reassessment of stakeholder needs and capacities; and co-produced, actionable climate services with the potential to catalyze climate action.

Climate adaptation in the spent fuel storage and disposal facilities: A literature review

Climate adaptation is part of the process our society is using to cope with climate change and the changes that it will bring to our environment over the coming years. Unfortunately, in some ‘high-risk’ industries (e.g., nuclear) and specifically in some areas such as spent fuel management, climate adaptation has received little attention. In 2016, the total spent fuel inventory was 265, 000 tonnes of heavy metal (HM) in storage and 127, 000 t HM was sent to reprocessing. In general, the spent fuel reduces its radiotoxicity to a natural level after hundreds to thousands of years. This timeframe surpasses that of severe changes that are expected to occur on our planet because of climate change. So, climate adaptation should be considered.As such, a literature review has been performed to acquire knowledge and identify gaps in the literature related to climate adaptation measures in long-term spent fuel storage. For this, a systematic review was performed that included the screening of 693 studies and a full-text analysis (e.g., purpose, methodology, findings, limitations) of 67 studies. Several literature gaps were revealed that included the lack of (1) local climate vulnerability assessment for nuclear power plants, (2) climate adaptation for spent fuel storage (e.g., on-site and centralized facilities (3) climate adaptation measures for long-term storage or final repositories.

CLIMATE RISKS AND VULNERABILITY OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY OF THE CITY OF SKOPJE

Climate change is a global problem that challenges humanity. Global warming, which is expected to bring extreme weather events, exposes human health, ecological systems, and ultimately the economy to great risks. Although the economy affects climate change, climate change also affects the economy. The effects of climate change on the economy in the short term can be positive or negative, but in the long term there is a consensus that global GDP will on average experience a significant reduction depending on the intensity of global warming. In addition to the small direct impact through disruption of economic inputs, the indirect impact through the transmission mechanism of productivity and investments on GDP is complex.However, climate impacts are not expected to have an equal negative impact on all economies in the world, and the Republic of North Macedonia is in the group of counties less vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we will apply the SECAP methodology for assessment of climate risks and vulnerability of the local economy of the City of Skopje. For this purpose, we will do an in-depth analysis of the local economy through the sectoral approach. The City of Skopje is an administrative city, and the sectors that are most vulnerable to climate change, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and construction, are marginal. An increase in the intensity of the extreme weather is expected, especially the increase in temperatures in all seasons with increased precipitation and flash floods. Therefore, an increase in climatic risks is expected in the local economy in the City of Skopje in relation to the current vulnerability. Аlthough some sectors would be negatively affected by climatic change, the general assessment is that the economy of the City of Skopje will remain moderately vulnerable to future climate risks. It is because of the expectations for strong adaptability of local businesses and change of business models according to the new economic conditions.

Research advancements for impact chain based climate risk and vulnerability assessments

As the climate crisis continues to worsen, there is an increasing demand for scientific evidence from Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (CRVA). We present 12 methodological advancements to the Impact Chain-based CRVA (IC-based CRVA) framework, which combines participatory and data-driven approaches to identify and measure climate risks in complex socio-ecological systems. The advancements improve the framework along five axes, including the existing workflow, stakeholder engagement, uncertainty management, socio-economic scenario modeling, and transboundary climate risk examination. Eleven case studies were conducted and evaluated to produce these advancements. Our paper addresses two key research questions: (a) How can the IC-based CRVA framework be methodologically advanced to produce more accurate and insightful results? and (b) How effectively can the framework be applied in research and policy domains that it was not initially designed for? We propose methodological advancements to capture dynamics between risk factors, to resolve contradictory worldviews, and to maintain consistency between Impact Chains across policy scales. We suggest using scenario-planning techniques and integrating uncertainties via Probability Density Functions and Reverse Geometric Aggregation. Our research examines the applicability of IC-based CRVAs to address transboundary climate risks and integrating macro-economic models to reflect possible future socio-economic exposure. Our findings demonstrate that the modular structure of IC-based CRVA allows for the integration of various methodological advancements, and further advancements are possible to better assess complex climate risks and improve adaptation decision-making.

A participatory climate vulnerability assessment for recreational tidal flats fisheries in Belize and The Bahamas

Recreational fishing is a pillar of the multibillion-dollar tourism sector in the Caribbean, supporting economic development and community livelihoods. However, as climate change drives increased habitat degradation, key recreational target species may experience declines. To effectively prioritize adaptation and mitigation efforts it is critical to project climate change impacts on recreational species and the communities that depend on them. We conducted a comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment (CVA) for three recreationally important tidal flats species in Belize and The Bahamas: bonefish (Albula vulpes), tarpon (Megalops atlanticus), and permit (Trachinotus falcatus). Species vulnerability was assessed by coupling 1) a research-based CVA to evaluate the sensitivity and exposure of species to climate impacts with 2) a participatory workshop involving 17 fishing guides, resource managers, and science and policy experts working in fisheries systems in Belize and/or The Bahamas. The workshop elicited local expert knowledge to resolve and contextualize CVA scoring and to identify strategies to increase climate resilience. According to the research-based CVA, key climate factors in the Caribbean are expected to see a ‘very high’ magnitude of change by 2050. All three species exhibit ‘very high’ vulnerability to these changes based on life history traits and reliance on nearshore habitats that are exposed to rapid temperature increases and storm damage. The expert stakeholder group confirmed a ‘very high’ magnitude of expected climate impacts in the Caribbean region, to which bonefish, the most valuable species, is likely to have a ‘very high’ vulnerability. However, stakeholders perceived tarpon and permit to be less vulnerable to these impacts than the CVA predicted, based on “on the water” observations of their habitat flexibility and resilience to disturbance. The group identified strategies at the individual, community, national, and international levels to enhance climate resilience in the recreational fishing sector. Our work highlights how participatory CVA processes can support a stronger understanding of species’ vulnerability while building capacity and collaboration to increase climate change readiness.

The place of social transformation analysis in vulnerability assessment for climate adaptation planning in Upper West Region, Ghana: A review synthesis

AbstractClimate vulnerability could be influenced by transforming demographic, technological, cultural, political and economic factors, which cuts across global, regional, national and local scales. Such social transformations result in positive and negative outcomes, with implications for the adaptive capacities of resource‐poor households, especially those headed by women. However, these transformations are usually not integrated in climate vulnerability assessments. Based on insights from a stakeholders’ brainstorming workshop and the synthesis of information from traditional literature review, this paper contributes to better understanding of the intersections of social transformation with climate vulnerabilities in the Upper West Region of Ghana. The review indicates that the region is experiencing social transformation triggered by technological, demographic and cultural factors, with implications for climate resilience building. For example, compared to the last decade, there is now an increased use of mobile phones, resulting in improved access to e‐extension and climate‐smart agriculture services. At the same time, an emerging trend of land commodification is driving poor households to sell or lease farming lands. Within the context of these transformations, climate vulnerability is still assessed through approaches that mainly focus on a ‘static’ view of the extent of exposure to climate hazards and their impacts on rural livelihoods. A social transformation analysis that promotes a systematic investigation of the transforming factors is proposed as an effective approach for vulnerability assessment in climate adaptation planning. This approach provides critical reflections on, and sustainable resilience interventions for addressing both changing biophysical and social vulnerabilities of rural communities.

A global synthesis of climate vulnerability assessments on marine fisheries: Methods, scales, and knowledge co-production.

Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social-ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low-income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalog (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data-limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co-production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions.