Climate Shock Research Articles

The impact of environmental shocks due to climate change on intimate partner violence: A structural equation model of data from 156 countries

The impact of climate change on human societies is now well recognised. However, little is known about how climate change alters health conditions over time. National level data around climate shocks and subsequent rates of intimate partner violence (IPV) could have relevance for resilience policy and programming. We hypothesise that climate shocks are associated with a higher national prevalence of IPV two years following a shock, and that this relationship persists for countries with different levels of economic development. We compiled national data for the prevalence of IPV from 363 nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2019. These representative data from ever-partnered women defined IPV incidence as any past-year act of physical and/or sexual violence. We also compiled data from the Emergency Events Database (EM DAT) on the national frequency of eight climate shocks from 1920 to 2022 within 190 countries. Using exploratory factor analysis, we fit a three-factor latent variable composed of climate shock variables. We then fit a structural equation model from climate shocks (lagged by two years) and IPV incidence, controlling for (log) national gross domestic product (GDP). National data representing 156 countries suggest a significant relationship between IPV and a climate factor (Hydro-meteorological) composed of storms, landslides and floods (standardised estimate = 0·32; SE = 0·128; p = 0·012). GDP has a moderately large cross-sectional association with IPV (estimate = -0·529; SE = 0·047; p = 0·0001). Other climate shocks (Geological: earthquakes/volcanos; Atmospheric: wildfire/droughts/extreme temperature) had no measurable association with IPV. Model fit overall was satisfactory (RMSEA = 0·064 (95%CI: 0·044–0·084); CFI = 0·91; SRMR = 0·063). Climate shocks have a longitudinal association with IPV incidence in global population-based data. This suggests an urgent need to address the higher prevalence of IPV likely to come about through climate shocks due to climate change. Our analysis offers one way policy makers could track national progress using existing data.

Eolian-fluvial Succession in the Early Cretaceous from the Ordos Basin

Cretaceous eolian deposits are widely developed in North China, among which the Lower Cretaceous eolian (erg) sedimentary strata in the Ordos Basin are the most representative. Many studies have been conducted on eolian deposits in the Ordos Basin, especially the Luohe Formation; however, there is a lack of systematic sedimentology research and the corresponding research on the evolution of sedimentary facies. Therefore, to explore the Mesozoic drought events and the systematic evolution of the sub-tropical erg zone, this study reports the fluvial–eolian sedimentary sequences of the Early Cretaceous Luohe and Yijinhuoluo Formations in the Ordos Basin. Spatially, through detailed sedimentary lithofacies and structural analysis of different outcrops, the combination law of sedimentary facies can be determined. Based on this, a three-dimensional sedimentary model of erg is reconstructed. The erg environment is divided into three sub-environments: erg margin, erg margin–centre transition and erg centre. According to the evolution of the sedimentary facies, the sedimentary evolution from the Late Jurassic to the Early Cretaceous in the Ordos Basin is divided into five stages. The Ordos Basin has experienced the delta, erg formation, erg deposition, erg shrinkage and evaporating salt-lake stages. The vertical sedimentary evolution indicates climatic oscillation in North China from the Late Jurassic to the Early Cretaceous. Under the control of the sub-tropical high belt, the Ordos Basin experienced a hot and arid climate during the Cretaceous, forming a widely distributed erg belt in the region. During this period, a small-scale climate shock occurred under the hot and arid background, changing the sedimentary environment.

The Impact of Climate Change Factors on Financial Markets: Evidence from China

ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of climate change factors, namely Climate Risk Index (CRI), Climate Policy Index (CPI), and Climate Concern Index (CCI), on China’s financial markets. By employing quantile vector autoregression model and conducting network analysis, this paper intends to reveal the dynamic relationship and the risk transmission mechanism between climate factors and various financial markets under different market conditions based on the data ranging from Nov.1, 2011 to December 31, 2021. We find that climate shocks intensify the risk contagion among China’s financial markets, and the impact induced by each factor would present heterogeneity. The results also indicate that the systemic importance of climate shock index varies across market conditions. The findings shed light on the complex interaction between climate shocks and financial markets, which should contribute to policy implications for financial market stability and risk prevention.

The distributional effects of climate change. An empirical analysis

The role of climate change on output has been studied extensively in the empirical literature. However, its distributional implications have received little attention. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating if climate shocks affect income inequality. Using a Vector Autoregression for a large cross-country panel, we identify the climate shock in the frequency domain as the shock that explains the bulk of the variance of climate variables in the long-run. An adverse climate shock is associated with an increase in measures of income inequality, affecting mostly low income households. The impact of the shock is larger in magnitude for low income, hot countries with a significant agricultural sector and low degree of adaptation to climate change.

Climate shocks, adaptive mechanisms and household energy transition in Uganda

Nearly 41% of the global populace depends on unclean fuels for cooking. As a result, about 4 million premature deaths connected to household air pollution are registered annually. Worryingly, over 2.1 billion people are estimated to continue using unclean fuels by 2030 if no strong policy actions are taken to alter the status quo. Climate parameters including; temperature, solar radiation, wind, and moisture have been widely touted as having an impact on multidimensional energy poverty, their effect on household energy consumption and subsequent transition to cleaner fuels is seldom investigated in Uganda. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of climate shocks, and adaptation mechanisms on household energy transition in Uganda. The study adopted a panel data methodology employing an ordered logit model with random effects to estimate the effect of climate shocks and adaptation mechanisms on household fuel transition from high to low-pollutant cooking fuels in Uganda. The findings revealed that climate shocks, adaptation mechanisms significantly affect household energy transition in Uganda. The study recommended that policies aimed at enhancing detection and report of early warning signs should be emphasized. Furthermore, investing in an insurance scheme especially for people living in climate shock prone areas can help households to cope up with shocks are eventually transition to clean cooking fuels.

Modeling HVAC degradation due to climate shocks and stresses using dynamic Bayesian networks

The impact of climate conditions on infrastructure is a major concern for the sustainability of built environment. Two main issues that add uncertainty and complexity in climate-change impact are of interest: multiple hazard types and non-stationarity of climate actions. This paper proposes an approach using dynamic Bayesian networks to assess the reliability of a building system considering both gradual and extreme climate factors over the service life of the asset. The methodology is illustrated on a case study that examine an HVAC system, considering overheating fault and degradation risk. Compared to conventional Markov model, the results show stochastic dependence in the degradation process at different time instants and hence affect the variability of degradation. The proposed approach includes economic-based impact analysis to determine costs and payoffs accrued as the consequences. By integrating climate stress and shock and accounting for dynamic changes of the hazard, this method helps decision-makers in identifying and prioritizing adaptation strategies for building system under climate change.

Climate risk and financial stability: evidence from syndicated lending

We study the impact of unexpected climate shocks on banks' individual and systemic risks. Employing climate risk measures developed using the Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Dealscan syndicated lending data, we find that climate risk exposure acquired through cross-state lending increases banks' individual and systemic risks. We also find that bank profitability helps offset some of the adverse effects of climate risk. Banks reduce lending and increase loan loss reserves after the experience of an unexpected climate shock. The loan-level analysis reveals that the effect of climate risk exposure on bank risks is more pronounced for loans granted for operating and capital expenditures. We contribute to a growing literature on the impact of climate risk on financial stability and the development of robust measures of climate risk for banks.

Fishing Portfolio Response to a Climate Shock

Fishing Portfolio Response to a Climate Shock

Agriculture and Climate Change: A Socio-Economic Dynamics of Climate-Smart Practices in Oubritenga Province, Burkina Faso

The issue of farmers' resilience to climate and natural resource degradation remains a major concern in Sahelian countries, including Burkina Faso. The aim of this study is to analyze the dynamics of farming practices in the province of Oubritenga in Burkina Faso, highlighting similarities and differences in climate-smart practices. To do this, a mixed method (qualitative and quantitative) was used, combining surveys, individual interviews and focus groups. The results indicate that these practices were disseminated and adopted in Oubritenga province well before the 1980s, and that they have evolved in terms of adoption rates and improvements in recent years through research. The practices mentioned include sustainable land management (SLM), water and soil conservation practices/soil defense and restoration (WSC/SDR). Rural households are responding by adopting and reinforcing climate-smart farming practices that are considered more sustainable in the face of climate shock, soil degradation and greenhouse gas mitigation. It should be noted that other agricultural practices and techniques have been disseminated and adopted over time, in connection with mechanization and the promotion of technical production itineraries. This is a body of endogenous knowledge that coexists with technical production itineraries aimed at respecting the balance between nature and the well-being of living beings by integrating a sustainable land and environmental management system.

Determinants of Health Expenditure during Extreme Climate Events: An Ex-post Analysis of Households in Rural Odisha of India

This study is an ex-post analysis of household health expenditure for rural India in the presence of climate shock. Primary data from Odisha state, located on the east coast of India, are collected for empirical analysis. We have also used information from focus group discussions at the village level and the primary data. Further, an adaptive response measure is created to understand household spending behaviour on health better. Econometric techniques such as regression and propensity score matching explain sample households’ ex-post-health spending behaviour. Our findings indicate that mitigation and adaptation strategies must be heterogeneous among villages classified as near or far from the coast. Social status matters in the health spending behaviour of households. Hence, a particular focus must be given to socially backward castes or classes in designing health policies and information at the state and national levels. JEL Codes: D31, I18, Q54, Q56

Adapting to Climate Risk With Guaranteed Credit: Evidence From Bangladesh

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, with low‐income countries being disproportionately impacted. However, these countries often face market frictions that hinder their ability to adopt effective adaptation strategies. In this paper, I explore the role of credit market failures in limiting adaptation. To achieve this, I collaborate with a large microfinance institution and offer a randomly selected group of farmers access to guaranteed credit through an “Emergency Loan” following a negative climate shock. I document three key results. First, farmers who have access to the emergency loan make less costly adaptation choices and are less severely affected when a flood occurs. Second, I find no evidence of adverse spillover effects on households that did not receive the Emergency Loan. Finally, I demonstrate that providing the Emergency Loan is profitable for the microfinance institution, making it a viable tool for the private sector to employ in similar circumstances.

Climate change and divorce behavior: Implication for family education

Extant literature has shown that climate change will affect people's mood and mental health, while the influence of climate change on marriage status is not analyzed. We estimate the effects of different types of climate change on the divorce rate around the world. Our models suggest that the increase in greenhouse gas emission, as well as growth of flood and extreme temperature, bring about the rise of the divorce rate, while drought has little effect on divorce rates. We further find that higher gender inequality leads to larger mental health stress and thus intensifies the influence of climate change on divorce. Our findings shed lights on the climate shock on family relationship, which can offer implication for family education.

Climate shocks, vulnerability, resilience and livelihoods in rural Zambia

ABSTRACT Climate and weather shocks pose risks to livelihoods in Southern Africa. We assess the extent to which smallholders are exposed to climate shocks in Zambia and how behavioural choices influence the negative effects of these shocks on vulnerability and resilience. We use household data from the nationally representative Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey and employ an instrumental variable probit regression model to control for the endogeneity of key choice variables. There are four main findings. First, droughts are the most prevalent climate shock faced by rural smallholder farmers in Zambia, but the extent of exposure differs spatially, with the Southern and Western Provinces being the hardest hit. Nationally, 76% of all smallholder farmers are vulnerable and only 24% are resilient, with female households most vulnerable. Second, increased climate shocks correlate with both increased vulnerability and reduced resilience, with short- and long-term deviations in seasonal rainfall worsening vulnerability and resilience. Third, higher asset endowments and education are correlated with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. And last, climate-smart agricultural practices significantly improve household resilience. These findings imply a need to support scaling of climate-smart agricultural technologies and to invest in risk mitigation strategies such as weather-indexed insurance and targeted social cash transfers.

Food Security from the Forest: The Case of the Commodification of Baobab Fruit (Adansonia digitata L.) in Boundou Region, Senegal

Wild edible fruits from the forest have often been regarded as poverty food; however, there has been a notable shift in recent years as these wild edible fruits have gained increasing recognition for their significance in global food security, especially in agricultural societies such as Senegal. This paper contributes to the debate on how the forest plays a role in diets and nutrition security using the example of wild fruit (Baobab) found in the Boundou Region in Senegal. The livelihood strategies of people in this region have been subject to external influences, such as climate shock and restrictions enforced as the area became a protected area in 2009. These external influences have resulted in the loss of pasture use and the prohibition of hunting. Restriction of access to these previous commons (pasture, wildlife) diminishes the resilience of the local population. However, a new alternative of seasonal usage of wild fruit, specifically baobab, for commercial purposes has emerged as everybody in the community has unrestricted access to collecting these wild edible fruits within the protected area, which is uncommon in other protected areas. The commodification and commercialization of these wild fruits bring essential cash income to many households, thereby improving food security.

Food insecurity experience during climate shock periods and farmers’ aspiration in Ethiopia

Research on climate change impact focuses on biophysical and economic dimensions. This paper seeks to unveil the association between smallholder farmers' food insecurity experience (FIE) during climate shock periods and their subsequent aspiration level. To this end, our analysis relied on data collected in rural Ethiopia following an unprecedented climate shock the country faced in 2016. We measured food insecurity (FI) using the food insecurity experience scale module (FIES-M) while households' aspirations were captured using an aggregated index measured in four dimensions: asset, income, children's education, and social status. We use both descriptive analysis and multinomial models to portray the association between FIE and aspiration. The majority of the respondents (67%) faced FI in varied severity: mild, moderate, and severe. The self-reported food gap months during the shock period ranges between 0 and 9 months. Among individuals reporting a food gap, around 80% faced three or more months. The average farmer had an aspiration level of 0.0042. Aspiration was associated with the socioeconomic realities of individuals. Educated, males, households with higher dependency ratio, income, and livestock had higher aspiration levels. Aspiration also varied with the severity of food insecurity individuals experienced. Farmers who experienced severe FI during the shock period had lower aspiration levels. A one-month food gap was associated with a decrease in 0.023 standard deviations in aspiration. The association between FI and aspiration level remains true even after controlling for the socioeconomic covariates of aspiration. There is gender disparity in the severity of FIE and aspiration of households during the shock period. However, this was not true when male headed and female headed households are equal in education, income, and asset holdings. In summary, in addition to the resource-related impact, climate shocks may influence the future oriented behavior of farmers. Further research based on longitudinal data is necessary to capture the dynamic nature of aspiration formation and reformation in relation to FIE during climate shock periods.

Impact Assessment of Climate Mitigation Finance on Climate Change in South Asia

Climate change is considered the greatest threat to human life in the 21st century, bringing economic, social and environmental consequences to the entire world. Environmental scientists also expect disastrous climate changes in the future and emphasize actions for climate change mitigation. The objective of this study was to explore the influence of climate mitigation finance on climate change in the region most vulnerable to climate shock, i.e., South Asia, in the period from 2000 to 2019. The panel autoregressive distributed lag model was used to estimate the influence of climate mitigation finance on climate change. The findings of this study demonstrate that, in the long-run, climate mitigation finance has a significant role in mitigating climate change, while in the short-run, climate mitigation finance has an insignificant effect on climate change. The result also shows that, in the long-run, climate change has a negative causal relation with GDP and globalization, but it has a positive causal relationship with energy consumption. The short-term effects of all independent variables are insignificant. Finally, based on the outcome of this study, several policy measures are recommended in order to mitigate climate change.

Climate shock response and resilience of smallholder farmers in the drylands of south-eastern Zimbabwe

Climatic shocks are exerting pressure on livelihoods of Zimbabwe's smallholder farmer—who irrigate only 2% of their farms. The smallholder farmers in drought-prone areas are more exposed to drought because of their limited ability to cope with shocks and their greater concentration in less favorable climatic regions. This study was done to analyze shock-response approaches, which farmers use to cope with climatic shocks. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used to analyze impact of World Vision Zimbabwe (WVZ) and other actors' interventions on farmer resilience to climatic shocks. Results show that mixed cropping and diversification in general were among the major strategies that pastoralists and crop farmers used to cope with climatic shocks. Crop farmers diversified types of crops as well as raising livestock. Similarly, pastoralists started growing short-term crops. Other coping strategies included intercropping, selling livestock, moving livestock to other places that did not experience drought. Both crop producers and livestock keepers engaged in nonfarm activities. About 60% of WVZ households reported that World Vision and partners helped them respond to shock and build resilience against climate change. These coping strategies had favorable impacts on household welfare. Diversification increased dietary diversity index by more than two and the increase was much greater among female-headed households than male-headed households. The WVZ intervention also significantly reduced the odds of going to bed without eating food or sleeping hungry. Non-farm income and value of assets for WVZ beneficiaries increased by about 20% and by 22% among treated female-headed households. The results show that diversification and providing grass root training of smallholder farmers increases their resilience to climate shocks.

Application of Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA) to Address Climate-Induced Risks through the Lens of Africa Borderland

The objective of this study is to gain a holistic and enhanced understanding of the characteristics of the livelihood of communities in the Liptako-Gourma region. This region, known for the tri-border area, has become the epicenter of the conflict since 2015. The study employs the Sustainable Livelihood Approach to guide survey results, as well as a focus group discussion. The results of the survey are analyzed to assess the linkage between climate-induced risks and development challenges in the region. Furthermore, the paper explores the interactions between climatic stresses and conflict risk. By taking the Liptako-Gourma region (Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso) as a focal study and analyzing the factors impacting the livelihoods of people in the region, a survey was conducted. It included questions related to agriculture, animal husbandry, and natural resource management, among other things. The survey had seven sections and was conducted with 287 people aged between 25 to 77 years from Bagawa and Tin-Akoff. Climate perceptions were evaluated through individual and group interviews. The result from the cohort study showed a close association between security and developmental challenges in the Liptako-Gourma region. This is due to the region’s reliance on agriculture and animal husbandry, which involves frequent migration and population movement across the borders. Furthermore, the study revealed that (1) climate-induced shocks are increasingly manifested, (2) the adaptive capacity to weather climate shock remains low, (3) mobility and migration is a common strategy, and (4) the conflict over the usage of natural resources exists; however, it is not the primary cause of conflicts.

Climate Shocks and Local Urban Conflicts: An Evolutionary Perspective on Risk Governance in Bhubaneswar

In this paper, we explore the complex entanglements between ongoing land conflicts and climate shocks, and their implications for risk governance paths and evolution. We focus on ways in which concepts of shock and conflict can be incorporated into social–ecological systems thinking and applied to risk governance practice in a southern cities context. Through a qualitative inquiry of two slum redevelopment projects in Bhubaneswar city in India, we trace the origin and evolution of conflict around land tenure and eviction in informal settlements, as well as its interaction with local manifestations of climate shocks. Climate policies, as responses to climate shock and intended to mitigate climate risk, are observed as constructed, interpreted, framed, and used strategically by formal actors to further urban development objectives, while the local knowledge systems, risk perceptions, and adaptations are ignored in practice. This study helps to re-think the complexities of climate risk governance in southern urban spaces where multiple risks overlap and interact within the diverse realities of informality and vulnerability. A singular focus on one type of risk, on the formal order to manage that risk, is likely to overlook other risks and opportunities. Hence, shocks are likely to produce more unanticipated effects, conflicts function as the unobserved middle term, and the formal policies and plans to mitigate climate risk contribute to the creation of new risk.

From Climate Chat to Climate Shock: Non-linear Impacts of Transition Risk in Energy CDs Markets

From Climate Chat to Climate Shock: Non-linear Impacts of Transition Risk in Energy CDs Markets